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View Full Version : Odds of a current Reds' minor leaguer claiming the final OF spot in ST?



TRF
12-16-2008, 12:12 PM
Dye, Taveras, Nix, Dickerson, Hairston, Wiggington, Hopper.

We've bandied a lot of names since just before the winter meetings. Who do you believe COULD take the job from within the organization?

Then explain why said player COULD do it.

I don't believe this scenario is very likely, but I'm tired of arguing about Taveras. :)

TRF
12-16-2008, 12:28 PM
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention I'm going with Dorn here. His extreme splits indicate he might be a good platoon partner. that's a decent enough way to ease a guy into life as a major leaguer. let him get some garbage AB's against LH's in blowouts. He's only 23, and is likely slotted for AAA, but he's skipped a level before, (MWL, straight to the FSL after Billings) and did EXTREMELY well.

dougdirt
12-16-2008, 12:30 PM
I went with Dorn as well. I probably shouldn't have because what I get from those inside the organization is that he is the type who is going to have to prove himself over and over. Still, I think his game is the most major league ready of all the guys that play outfield in the minors.

BRM
12-16-2008, 12:31 PM
If I had to bet on a current minor leaguer to break camp as a semi-regular, it would be Dorn for the same reason TRF stated. I still put the odds of it at very, very slim.

corkedbat
12-16-2008, 12:45 PM
I think the chances are very slim also especially ro start the season. I believe the chances ibcrease quite a bit that one of the youngsters is up by June or July.

I'd leave Dorn in AAA for most of the season and have him face lefties & righties everyday. He wouldn't be up before Sept. w/p a MONSTER season. I see no way Stubbs starts the year in Cincy, but if he shows the abilty to get on base in the first half, I think it's fairly conceivable that he's up after two or three months, in a platoon with Dickerson.

I chose other in the pool. I still think Jocko adds a couple of OFs and Hairston between now and ST. If he should fail though, I think there's an outside chance Frazier inpresses with a huge springand they stick im in LF. Since he has played little, if any, out there I think it's highly, highly unlikely, but then that's how highly unlikely I think a rookie OF on Opening day is.

lollipopcurve
12-16-2008, 12:53 PM
Other = none.

No chance any of these guys claims a starting job at the opening of the 09 season, in my opinion.

camisadelgolf
12-16-2008, 12:55 PM
I went with Cumberland. He's a left-handed bat, plays all three outfield spots, has a little power, and has some speed. His plate discipline is less than desirable, but his other skills make him a good candidate for a bench position.

I don't see Stubbs as being a platoon partner because I think the Reds want him to get lots of at-bats and continue to develop. The same goes for Dorn and Heisey, too.

As for Henry, I think he theoretically has a good shot, too, but although he has good plate discipline, he's right-handed and not quite as skilled as Cumberland imo.

HokieRed
12-16-2008, 12:58 PM
A question before I vote: how good is the outfield defense of Cumberland and Henry? If Dickerson cannot do the job in CF, would we be, in any way, worse off with either of these two (or both) than with Taveras?

TRF
12-16-2008, 01:01 PM
A question before I vote: how good is the outfield defense of Cumberland and Henry? If Dickerson cannot do the job in CF, would we be, in any way, worse off with either of these two (or both) than with Taveras?

doug could answer that better than I, but I believe Henry played some CF at AA.

OnBaseMachine
12-16-2008, 01:01 PM
I don't think any of them will make the team but Danny Dorn has the best chance of the players listed. He's 24 years old and is coming off a season in which he posted an .906 OPS in Double-A. I figure he'll most likely begin the 2009 season in Triple-A and receive a callup to Cincy sometime during the summer.

RedsManRick
12-16-2008, 01:01 PM
I went with Dorn if only because he's the one guy in the group with an impact bat that could really turn heads in ST. The other guys, save Stubbs (who Jocketty has said needs more time in AAA), are more known commodities in the Chris Denorfia mold. They might be productive players down the road, but they don't do any one thing quite well enough to force their way on to a roster in ST.

Dorn is old enough and has been dominant enough in the minors that I could see him making the jump -- or at least being asked to. If you're talking about a 5th OF situation, I think you'd see Hopper first.

Caveat Emperor
12-16-2008, 01:05 PM
I'd go with none.

There isn't a single one of those guys ready to play in the bigs, and there's no sense burning an option to find that out.

camisadelgolf
12-16-2008, 01:08 PM
A question before I vote: how good is the outfield defense of Cumberland and Henry? If Dickerson cannot do the job in CF, would we be, in any way, worse off with either of these two (or both) than with Taveras?

They both play center field good enough to not embarrass themselves, but I wouldn't rate either of them any better than average. Actually, I'd say that, defensively, Cumberland is average and Henry is slightly below average. With that said, Sean Henry could probably have a .230 batting average and get on base as much as Willy Taveras.

dougdirt
12-16-2008, 01:08 PM
A question before I vote: how good is the outfield defense of Cumberland and Henry? If Dickerson cannot do the job in CF, would we be, in any way, worse off with either of these two (or both) than with Taveras?

Cumberland and Henry can play CF, but they aren't on the same level as Dickerson or even Jay Bruce really. I still don't think Taveras is any type of answer. If Dickerson can't cut in CF (which I think he can, especially if protected against tough lefties), then the best move is likely to slide Bruce over to CF for the remainder of the season until you can find another option and put someone capable in RF.

RedsManRick
12-16-2008, 01:38 PM
Cumberland and Henry can play CF, but they aren't on the same level as Dickerson or even Jay Bruce really. I still don't think Taveras is any type of answer. If Dickerson can't cut in CF (which I think he can, especially if protected against tough lefties), then the best move is likely to slide Bruce over to CF for the remainder of the season until you can find another option and put someone capable in RF.

The Bruce to CF option is one I've advocated for as well and am frankly surprised we have heard more about. Flanked by capable gloves (aka not Dunn and Junior), he's fine out there and it makes the job of adding offense much easier.

TRF
12-16-2008, 02:15 PM
I'd go with none.

There isn't a single one of those guys ready to play in the bigs, and there's no sense burning an option to find that out.

I think if any of them could make the jump, It'd be Dorn.

In fact, a Dorn/Hairston platoon could almost be palatable.

osuceltic
12-16-2008, 02:20 PM
The Bruce to CF option is one I've advocated for as well and am frankly surprised we have heard more about. Flanked by capable gloves (aka not Dunn and Junior), he's fine out there and it makes the job of adding offense much easier.

I didn't think he was fine at all out there. In fact, he was pretty shaky in right field. I'd stick him in right and leave him alone. He's not a center fielder.

WebScorpion
12-16-2008, 02:38 PM
I went with Stubbs. I don't think any of them will go north with the team, but I think he's the most likely candidate. He already plays Major League level defense and he swings from the opposite side of the dish as Dickerson. If he suddenly 'gets it' at the plate, he could either platoon with Dickerson or become the starting centerfielder outright. I think they have bigger plans for him than a platoon, but they might choose to ease him in that way. Realistically, I expect him to play a full season in AAA, with a possible September callup, but anything is possible. Dorn hasn't even had a AAA plate appearance yet, so that's why I didn't go with him.

Rojo
12-16-2008, 02:50 PM
I didn't think he was fine at all out there. In fact, he was pretty shaky in right field. I'd stick him in right and leave him alone. He's not a center fielder.

I agree. Let's leave guys where they'll be pluses.

I think Heisey might've moved up a bit with Freel's departure.

HokieRed
12-16-2008, 02:58 PM
Thanks to those who helped on the defense of Cumberland/Henry. I was hoping, actually, to hear that either would be at least as good as Taveras and thus we'd never have need of WT, whom I don't want either. But I'll go with Dorn, though I don't think he's quite ready and should probably be seen as a platoon guy anyway (I'm hoping he's here by July). Rather than go with Taveras, though, I'd be happy to see a Bruce to CF (as the backup plan to Dickerson) and a Dorn-Rosales platoon in one of the corners.

RedsManRick
12-16-2008, 03:30 PM
I didn't think he was fine at all out there. In fact, he was pretty shaky in right field. I'd stick him in right and leave him alone. He's not a center fielder.

I don't think he was great out there in RF either. However, it wasn't due to a lack of athleticism -- he misjudged balls and took poor routes. While some of that is natural aptitude, to a large degree that's a function of experience. In my extremely amateur opinion, Bruce's struggles defensively in RF in 2008 were primarily because he has spent most of his career as a CF and was not used to RF yet. I venture to say he'd be as good in CF as in RF, if not better -- at least for 2009. I think we're wasting an opportunity to leverage his youth.

BRM
12-16-2008, 03:40 PM
I know one thing, if the choice is Jay Bruce or Willy Taveras in CF then I'll take Jay hands down.

*BaseClogger*
12-16-2008, 03:49 PM
None, but if forced to make a choice the answer is Drew Stubbs. He's more prepared for a CF platoon with Dickerson than Dorn is for a platoon in LF. His defense in CF is a given, and he wouldn't have as much playing time as Dorn because the majority of pitchers are right-handed. Dorn would be asked to produce offensively because he plays a corner outfield spot, and I don't think he's ready...

TRF
12-16-2008, 03:54 PM
So does anyone think Taveras is a better option than ANY of the minor leaguers listed?

I sure don't

Highlifeman21
12-16-2008, 04:35 PM
So does anyone think Taveras is a better option than ANY of the minor leaguers listed?

I sure don't

Depends on the question, really.

BRM
12-16-2008, 04:39 PM
Depends on the question, really.

I think TRF will argue that it doesn't matter what the question is.

pahster
12-16-2008, 04:43 PM
I think TRF will argue that it doesn't matter what the question is.

Me too, unless the question is "which outfielder would you be willing to sacrifice in order to appease the volcano?"

TRF
12-16-2008, 04:53 PM
I think TRF will argue that it doesn't matter what the question is.

quoted for truth.

I think Heisey could do what Taveras could.

I think Cumberland and Henry could defend as well and bring far more to the plate.

Hell, I think Stubbs would be an upgrade as he at least can take a BB, and from all reports would be miles better defensively.

But Dorn's bat might be ready for primetime right now. At the very least in a platoon. He destroys RH pitching. And his injury last year was a laceration, not the nagging muscle/tendon/ligament type that turns all Kearnsian on a player.

I'd challenge him in ST to go out and claim LF.

Raisor
12-16-2008, 06:17 PM
Me too, unless the question is "which outfielder would you be willing to sacrifice in order to appease the volcano?"



Do you think the angry volcano would take Dusty? Wait, the volcano probably knows Hank Aaron...:thumbup: