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RedEye
12-18-2008, 05:59 PM
Should the Reds sign Juan Rivera?

membengal
12-18-2008, 06:01 PM
That is impossible to answer without knowing if the other, better, more preferable moves are still a possibility or not.

RedEye
12-18-2008, 06:02 PM
I was just responding to the fact that there was already a Willy Taveras poll...

Caveat Emperor
12-18-2008, 06:04 PM
I'd be OK with Juan Rivera on a low-money, 1 year deal as a bench player / 4th outfielder. Since that isn't the role the Reds appear to be looking to give him, I'm a very emphatic "No."

Johnny Footstool
12-18-2008, 06:06 PM
It depends on the deal. If it's less than $4 million per year, I'd say yes.

dougdirt
12-18-2008, 06:07 PM
It depends on the deal. If it's less than $4 million per year, I'd say yes.

Agreed. If it gets more than that, I am not as sure about it.

lollipopcurve
12-18-2008, 06:09 PM
I'd prefer Dye, but Rivera's OK.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-18-2008, 06:14 PM
It depends on the deal. If it's less than $4 million per year, I'd say yes.

Agree.

Raisor
12-18-2008, 06:14 PM
As a 4th OFer, no problem. As THE guy in LF, problem.

I'm voting "no" for now. If the Reds sign/trade for someone else, I might change my mind.

WMR
12-18-2008, 06:18 PM
If he's "THE BIG" outfield move of the off-season I would be very discouraged.

I wouldn't mind him in the role Raisor stated above (as a 4th OFer).

BRM
12-18-2008, 06:22 PM
As a 4th OFer, no problem. As THE guy in LF, problem.

I'm voting "no" for now. If the Reds sign/trade for someone else, I might change my mind.

My thoughts exactly.

HokieRed
12-18-2008, 06:24 PM
I will say yes. I think we have no realistic chance in 2009 and then quite a lot better chance beginning in 2010. Thus I'm hoping WJ does no long term damage this offseason, and so far he has not. Rivera would fit in with this, but so would Ty Wigginton at 17.5 for 3. That would be a comparative question maybe the board would like to think about: to do 2 years, say, of Rivera for 8 or go for Wigginton.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-18-2008, 06:51 PM
I know he's four years older, but he has very similar career numbers as Edwin Encarnacion in roughly the same number of plate appearances.

Rivera----.284/.331/.468/.799 (1900 PA's)
EE-------.266/.346/.455/.801 (1835 PA's)

Rivera:
101 2B
2 3B
72 HR
123 BB
222 K

Encarnacion:
103 2B
3 3B
66 HR
161 BB
326 K

The main difference being that Edwin can take a walk a little better, but Rivera strikes out less with a little more power.

I compare the two only because there has been discussion about moving EE to LF. One could argue that EE is only 26 (and 4 years younger) so his numbers are likely to get better, but Rivera has been injured the past two seasons and his numbers have suffered because of that. Anyway, taking those things into consideration, they appear pretty even offensively.

RedEye
12-18-2008, 07:05 PM
This is interesting. I didn't expect it to be this close (thought most would vote against him).

RedEye
12-18-2008, 09:40 PM
Looks like the "Yes" votes might be pulling away a bit.

BoydsOfSummer
12-18-2008, 10:04 PM
Dunn strikes out too much.

Raisor
12-18-2008, 10:11 PM
Dunn strikes out too much.

My cat's breath smells like cat food.

OnBaseMachine
12-18-2008, 10:12 PM
It depends on the deal. If it's less than $4 million per year, I'd say yes.

Agreed.

blumj
12-18-2008, 11:05 PM
I know he's four years older, but he has very similar career numbers as Edwin Encarnacion in roughly the same number of plate appearances.

Rivera----.284/.331/.468/.799 (1900 PA's)
EE-------.266/.346/.455/.801 (1835 PA's)

Rivera:
101 2B
2 3B
72 HR
123 BB
222 K

Encarnacion:
103 2B
3 3B
66 HR
161 BB
326 K

The main difference being that Edwin can take a walk a little better, but Rivera strikes out less with a little more power.

I compare the two only because there has been discussion about moving EE to LF. One could argue that EE is only 26 (and 4 years younger) so his numbers are likely to get better, but Rivera has been injured the past two seasons and his numbers have suffered because of that. Anyway, taking those things into consideration, they appear pretty even offensively.
Totally pointless observation, but that seems like a ridiculous number of PAs to only have 2 or 3 triples, unless you're a Molina.

Highlifeman21
12-19-2008, 12:19 AM
Didn't Cyclone clarify this issue for everyone?

Here's an exercise for everyone.

Tell me what the following have in common:

Santa Claus

The Easter Bunny

The Tooth Fairy

The Reds signing Juan Rivera being a good thing.









They are all figments of your imagination!


Just say no to Juan Rivera, just say no to Willy Taveras.

OnBaseMachine
12-19-2008, 12:28 AM
I think Rivera could be a decent signing if he can be had cheaply. I'd rather have him than trade Bailey for Dye. While it's far from a sure thing, I think Rivera could put up a .300/.345/.500 line while playing half his games in GABP, plus he won't kill you defensively. He's not as good defensively as he once was but he's still not awful. If he's signed, I'd bat him sixth and Encarnacion fourth.

OnBaseMachine
12-19-2008, 12:40 AM
BTW, I was against signing Juan Rivera until I read this great piece:

Free Agent Bargain: Juan Rivera

by Dave Cameron - October 27, 2008 Filed under Daily Graphings

This afternoon, we looked at the first of several potential free agent bargains this winter - Jeremy Affeldt. This afternoon, we take a look at another guy with some potential for positive reward who won’t cost an arm and a leg. That guy is Juan Rivera.

Two years ago, Rivera hit .310/.362/.525 for the Angels, racking up a 2.45 WPA/LI mark that made him a very solid contributor to Anaheim’s offense. Then, injuries struck, and the last two years have been something of a wash. He managed just 324 plate appearances between the two seasons, and the missed time cost him his shot at a regular gig in LA. Now 30 and hitting free agency, it’s unlikely that a team is going to be giving him a multi-year contract without proving he can play everyday again, but if we look at his skills, he’s still a pretty solid hitter.

Rivera’s signature skill has always been his power, and that hasn’t disappeared. Even with the health problems and limited playing time, he posted a .191 ISO last year. When you look a little deeper, there’s even more reasons for optimism. During the first three months of the season, Rivera managed all of 66 plate appearances in 30 games. He barely made it on the field from April through June, and he wasn’t giving the Angels any reason to put him in the line-up more often, struggling to a .177/.227/.226 line. He had three extra base hits, all doubles, and simply wasn’t hitting. However, Gary Matthews Jr’s struggles created an opportunity for him to play a bit more often, from July on, he showed that the old Juan Rivera still existed.

In the final three months of the season, Rivera hit .268/.299/.505, and while the OBP isn’t exactly impressive, the 22 extra base hits (12 of which were home runs) show that Rivera’s still got some juice in his swing. His overly aggressive approach at the plate will always make him a low on base guy, but that kind of power is still valuable. Even with the .299 OBP, Rivera’s WPA/LI over the final three months was -.07, making him essentially a league average hitter.

Now, if that was Rivera’s ceiling, he’d be a nifty platoon corner OF/DH type, and that would be the end of it. But Rivera was a league average hitter while hitting .270. As a guy with both good contact and power, Rivera’s got the kind of skills that could allow him to hit .290 to .310. If you don’t strike out, and you hit the ball over the wall with some frequency, it’s pretty hard to post a low batting average, thanks to the sheer quantity of chances you have for hits. Rivera managed to hit .269 over the final three months despite a .242 batting average on balls in play. That’s extraordinarily low, even for a guy hitting a ton of flyballs.

If we assume that Rivera’s true talent BABIP is more in the .280 range (it’s .292 for his career, but we’ll knock it down a bit for age and injuries), and the rest of his skills remain in tact, he’s a .290 to .300 hitter. Even with his aggressive approach, .300/.340/.500 isn’t out of the question.

Rivera may never get back to his 2006 prime, but he’s certainly better than he’s shown the last two years, and there’s no reason to think he’s washed up at age 30. For a team looking for a right-handed power bat who makes good contact and offers some upside without requiring a long term, big money deal, Rivera’s a good bet. He’ll never be a star, but he could be the kind of useful role player that is picked up cheaply that championship teams need.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-juan-rivera

OnBaseMachine
12-19-2008, 12:46 AM
Might have to scratch that idea:

The Los Angeles Angels on Thursday night were nearing agreement with outfielder Juan Rivera on a three-year contract, according to baseball sources.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-angelsrivera121808&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Tom Servo
12-19-2008, 12:51 AM
Might have to scratch that idea:

The Los Angeles Angels on Thursday night were nearing agreement with outfielder Juan Rivera on a three-year contract, according to baseball sources.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-angelsrivera121808&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Makes our offseason all the more interesting now.

Jpup
12-19-2008, 01:40 AM
Might have to scratch that idea:

The Los Angeles Angels on Thursday night were nearing agreement with outfielder Juan Rivera on a three-year contract, according to baseball sources.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-angelsrivera121808&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

good news.:thumbup:

remdog
12-19-2008, 03:10 AM
good news.:thumbup:

Wrong---unless you are an Angels fan.

Rivera's numbers over the last two years aren't exciting at all; of course he's coming off of a serious injury and that is a reason for concern. OTOH, he's five years younger than some of the other names tossed around (Burrell, Abreu, Dye) and would cost somewhere a third of what they will demand.

Bobby Abreu was tossed out there in a post; compare Abreu's '08 (remembering that he'll be 35 y.o. next season) to Rivera's '06 (in a lot fewer AB's). Now, project JR coming back to form, at a much younger age than Abreu and a lot less expensive, shorter-term contract than Bobby and tell me who the best value would be.

In the eight years that have encompassed this decade the Reds have never even sniffed the playoffs while the Angels have been there 5 times---winning the WS once. It's of significance to me that one of the best run franchises in all of baseball is trying to re-sign Juan Rivera while a bunch of baseball board dilettants continue to knock him.

It's OK though. I'll always love the Reds and I fervently hope that they win the WS in the time I have left on my clock. But, next summer, I can sit back, relax and watch one of best run franchises in MLB make a run for it all. And, as I said, they want Juan Rivera.

Rem

Ltlabner
12-19-2008, 07:31 AM
It's of significance to me that one of the best run franchises in all of baseball is trying to re-sign Juan Rivera while a bunch of baseball board dilettants continue to knock him.

Dilettantes? Classy stuff.

The Angles want him for a 4th outfielder to fill in around the gaps.

The Reds want him for a power-hitting, stud, everyday left field bat to be counted on to produce the bazzilion runs we need to close the RS/RA gap.

But don't let the fact that those are two entirely different situations slow you down any.

edabbs44
12-19-2008, 07:36 AM
Dilettantes? Classy stuff.

The Angles want him for a 4th outfielder to fill in around the gaps.

The Reds want him for a power-hitting, stud, everyday left field bat to be counted on to produce the bazzilion runs we need to close the RS/RA gap.

But don't let the fact that those are two entirely different situations slow you down any.

That is so inaccurate...I seriously doubt that Cincy thinks of Juan Rivera in that way. Or anywhere near it.

Caveat Emperor
12-19-2008, 07:58 AM
That is so inaccurate...I seriously doubt that Cincy thinks of Juan Rivera in that way. Or anywhere near it.

Hyperbole aside, the point does remain: Rivera would open the year as Cincinnati's starting LF, whereas in Anaheim, his status would likely be more of a role player.

Ltlabner
12-19-2008, 08:04 AM
That is so inaccurate...I seriously doubt that Cincy thinks of Juan Rivera in that way. Or anywhere near it.

And the indications that Rivera is sought after solely to be a role playing, 4th outfielder type are where exactly?

Perhaps he will platoon with Hopper?

Your prognostications aside, the indications are (on the limited data we have) that Rivera is being sought after as an everyday player on a team chock full of holes. That's a world of difference than being a role player to complement an otherwise relatively solid team.

edabbs44
12-19-2008, 09:32 AM
And the indications that Rivera is sought after solely to be a role playing, 4th outfielder type are where exactly?

Perhaps he will platoon with Hopper?

Your prognostications aside, the indications are (on the limited data we have) that Rivera is being sought after as an everyday player on a team chock full of holes. That's a world of difference than being a role player to complement an otherwise relatively solid team.

There is a small gap between:


a role playing, 4th outfielder type

and


a power-hitting, stud, everyday left field bat to be counted on to produce the bazzilion runs we need to close the RS/RA gap.

If Cincy is going to sign Juan Rivera to be their LFer, it isn't because they think that he will be their Manny/Holliday type hitter. It is because they think he is the best use of their resources for this spot.

Potential short term contract with not a ton of guaranteed money. If Walt sees this year as a potential 2008 repeat based upon the business plan and industry landscape, then why guarantee real money in order to win 75 games?

Save it until it counts. Rivera has upside and a contract wouldn't hurt the team down the road. Kind of like the idiotic Cordero signing.

But it seems all for naught anyway.

edabbs44
12-19-2008, 09:34 AM
Hyperbole aside, the point does remain: Rivera would open the year as Cincinnati's starting LF, whereas in Anaheim, his status would likely be more of a role player.

With GA out of the mix, I think Rivera has the opportunity to be more than a role player. Hunter and Vlad would be locked in and it would be between Rivera and Matthews (.676 OPS) for the third spot.

Ltlabner
12-19-2008, 09:49 AM
There is a small gap between:



and



If Cincy is going to sign Juan Rivera to be their LFer, it isn't because they think that he will be their Manny/Holliday type hitter. It is because they think he is the best use of their resources for this spot.

Potential short term contract with not a ton of guaranteed money. If Walt sees this year as a potential 2008 repeat based upon the business plan and industry landscape, then why guarantee real money in order to win 75 games?

Save it until it counts. Rivera has upside and a contract wouldn't hurt the team down the road. Kind of like the idiotic Cordero signing.

But it seems all for naught anyway.

Whether you grasp it or not the Reds not only have to replace the previous LF's prodution but also add to it to have any hope of competing. This team needs to score more runs and a lot of them.

Whoever trots out to LF in April needs to be a monster stud bat if thats the 'big' move of the offseason. If JR is being sought to be that everyday bat its a mistake. If hes being sought in cordination with a series of other moves that result in more runs then its a lot more palitable.

edabbs44
12-19-2008, 10:01 AM
Whether you grasp it or not the Reds not only have to replace the previous LF's prodution but also add to it to have any hope of competing. This team needs to score more runs and a lot of them.

Whoever trots out to LF in April needs to be a monster stud bat if thats the 'big' move of the offseason. If JR is being sought to be that everyday bat its a mistake. If hes being sought in cordination with a series of other moves that result in more runs then its a lot more palitable.

"Needs to be a monster stud bat" if they are going all out to try and win. But if they are being realistic, then things change.

Johnny Footstool
12-19-2008, 10:57 AM
Didn't Cyclone clarify this issue for everyone?

Here's an exercise for everyone.

Tell me what the following have in common:

Santa Claus

The Easter Bunny

The Tooth Fairy

The Reds signing Juan Rivera being a good thing.









They are all figments of your imagination!


Just say no to Juan Rivera, just say no to Willy Taveras.

Just say no to hyperbole.

Juan Rivera isn't the antichrist.

flyer85
12-19-2008, 11:06 AM
per rotoworld


The Angels are close to re-signing Juan Rivera to a three-year deal, according to Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown.

RedEye
12-19-2008, 11:27 AM
The Angels are close to re-signing Juan Rivera to a three-year deal, according to Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown.

And there was much rejoicing.

remdog
12-19-2008, 02:33 PM
The Reds want him for a power-hitting, stud, everyday left field bat to be counted on to produce the bazzilion runs we need to close the RS/RA gap.

OK. The guy you just described likely doesn't exsist---at least in the Reds' universe. Soooo, how would you feel if the Reds ponied up cash for Bobby Abreu and added Rivera as an additional OF at a price of $3-4M for thre years.
Or, instead of Abreau, they snag Burrell? Then add Rivera or vise versa.

Or, they give up talent to land Dye plus add Rivera?

Any of those things work for you?

Rem

M2
12-19-2008, 03:57 PM
And ESPN now reports Rivera and the Angels is a done deal.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3782150

Jpup
12-19-2008, 03:58 PM
And ESPN now reports Rivera and the Angels is a done deal.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3782150

:rockband:

Cyclone792
12-19-2008, 04:00 PM
Rock on, Redlegs!

We've now got Rivera down, Taveras to go ... at least amongst the rumored names.

Highlifeman21
12-19-2008, 04:09 PM
Rock on, Redlegs!

We've now got Rivera down, Taveras to go ... at least amongst the rumored names.

You know you can't wait to watch Taveras go 0-8 from the leadoff spot in the 2 games we'll see in June in Washington DC

Raisor
12-19-2008, 04:10 PM
Rock on, Redlegs!

We've now got Rivera down, Taveras to go ... at least amongst the rumored names.

This is where having Jimbo in a GM spot elsewhere in the league comes in so handy.

Cyclone792
12-19-2008, 04:11 PM
You know you can't wait to watch Taveras go 0-8 from the leadoff spot in the 2 games we'll see in June in Washington DC

I'll give him a standing O for that performance.

Chip R
12-19-2008, 04:58 PM
I say no because the Angels re-signed him. :D