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View Full Version : Thank God we don't have Adam Dunn!



Nasty_Boy
12-19-2008, 06:43 PM
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a91cbaefb-65bd-4faf-9529-a5b76eee7194&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com


The Reds quest for a right-handed-hitting outfielder is now centered on Jerry Hairston Jr., Rocco Baldelli and Willy Taveras.

Walt Jocketty hadn't gotten official word that the Reds were out of the Juan Rivera sweepstakes. But he had heard the report that Rivera had signed a three-year deal with the Angels.

"His agent told me they had a three-year deal out there," Jocketty said. "I told him we probably wouldn't go three. So that makes sense."

Jocketty made talked to agent for Jerry Hairston Jr. and Rocco Baldelli (it's the same guy).

"Just briefly," Jocketty said. "He was in and out of meetings."

The Reds have an offer out to Hairston. They remain interested in Baldelli. A new report on Baldelli's mysterious ailment came out Wednesday. It makes him a much more attractive option for the Reds. He could play center or left. He's a middle-of-the-order bat when healthy.

The Reds also are believed to have an offer out to Taveras, who they see as solution to the leadoff/center field spot.

I thought there was a good chance that the Reds would sign Rivera. But I can see why they were hesitant to offer a three-year deal.



I really think Jerry, Rocco, and Willy or some combination puts us over the top. :rolleyes:

Ghosts of 1990
12-19-2008, 06:53 PM
I feel the same way.

We are a 5th place team because we make moves a 5th place franchise makes, over, and over, and over, and over again.

The team that signs Adam Dunn will be much improved.

But lets get real, thats only the tip of the iceberg. We just don't do competent things altogether.

LouisvilleCARDS
12-19-2008, 07:12 PM
Bottom line is, we need to start building solid players from within the organization. That should be the focus. There's no point in going out and wasting money on a Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn - we just had how many years of not being competitive WITH Dunn. How would his contributions help this year any more? I hope we can build within the organization and get more players to come up, and get Jay Bruce to live up to his potential, and Homer Bailey straightened out. We should be spending this money on proven coaches and scouts.

Jack Burton
12-19-2008, 07:27 PM
The team that signs Adam Dunn will be much improved.


Where's he gonna play? He definitely downgrades a teams defense. I'm glad he's gone, good riddance.

UPRedsFan
12-19-2008, 07:33 PM
Trying to resign Adam would cost millions for multiple years. They need that money for other things - pitching and defense.

Bruce in right
Dickerson/Baldelli in left
Hairston/Taveras in center

Sounds like a solid defensive outfield. We've just improved the pitching with Griffey and Dunn gone. I can live with Hairston and Baldelli signings. Taveras is ok too if he's the 5th outfielder used to give others a breather. I admit the offense may suffer in'09 but they won't need Dunn's offense as much in '10 or '11 with the talent coming up.

Hondo
12-19-2008, 08:10 PM
Oh lord, this is a joke... baldelli and Taveras...

Wait, re sign Hariston... I am seeing a minor league outfield there...

Bruce is the only Major leaguer there...

CesarGeronimo
12-19-2008, 08:19 PM
I'm okay with not spending big money on a left fielder because they'll be able to fill that spot from within in a year or less, but I'll be very discouraged if they sign Corey Pattaveras. Pattaveras would not be the fourth or fifth outfielder. He'd be the CF/leadoff hitter. That's pretty clear from Walt's comments and from Dusty's history.

redsfandan
12-19-2008, 08:43 PM
Baldelli isn't a backup. IMO, IF we do end up with Baldelli, Hairston, and Taveras our starters should be Dickerson in center and Baldelli in left. They are the better all around players (and have more power) plus Hairston would be needed to help out in the infield and Taveras should ideally be the 5th outfielder (maybe more IF his obp is improved). I'd want Baldelli in left cuz with his medical condition the less running around he has to do the less chance he'll wear down. If Dickerson is just 80% of what he did last year he would still be fine. We would end up with a much faster offense than what we had at the start of '08 with still decent power.

redsfanmia
12-19-2008, 08:48 PM
I thank god everyday in my prayers that Adam Dunn is no longer a Red.

mroby85
12-19-2008, 09:48 PM
I thank god everyday in my prayers that Adam Dunn is no longer a Red.

I feel the same way, and anyone who watched the team consistently and understands the game would. All Adam Dunn amounted to was a really bad overall baseball player, that could hit really long home runs that impressed casual fans.

ChatterRed
12-19-2008, 10:50 PM
Bottom line is, we need to start building solid players from within the organization. That should be the focus. There's no point in going out and wasting money on a Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn - we just had how many years of not being competitive WITH Dunn. How would his contributions help this year any more? I hope we can build within the organization and get more players to come up, and get Jay Bruce to live up to his potential, and Homer Bailey straightened out. We should be spending this money on proven coaches and scouts.


I agree the Reds need to build from within.

But it's hard to watch all the other teams make moves and watch the Reds either sit on their hands or go for the scraps.

IowaRed
12-19-2008, 11:51 PM
I feel the same way, and anyone who watched the team consistently and understands the game would. All Adam Dunn amounted to was a really bad overall baseball player, that could hit really long home runs that impressed casual fans.

actually, in my opinion more casual fans thought Dunn sucked because of his low batting avg. and high K's. All fans were impressed with his long home runs. What all fans should have been impressed with was the fact that he is the only player in major league baseball to hit 40 HR's in each of the last 5 years while putting up OBP's of .388, .387, .365, .386, & .386. To say he was a really bad overall baseball player is borderline foolish and is not supported by the overall numbers

Bip Roberts
12-20-2008, 12:12 AM
For the price we had to pay? Heck yea I'm glad we dont have him

BUTLER REDSFAN
12-20-2008, 12:34 AM
Once again I need to refer back to my remarks regarding (at the time) the upcoming winter meetings...

Hate to be a partypooper but you asked...Yes, I hope to eat crow but based on the last several years this is what I expect.. One or two no name-no excitement signing/trades then excuses on why we just couldnt sign anyone...then in June or July when we are 20 games out we will be cussing at the tv yet again saying "Now why we couldnt sign anyone again???


We basically hear near the end of last season we are going to be active in trades and free agent signings in the offseason....well let see so far 3 months into the offseason we havent signed one major free agent or made one major trade....and per the beat writers Walt's most pressing issue is to get Hairston resigned? or sign a player that cant hit his way out of a paper bag(Taveras)??? If Walt or Castellini would simply come out one time and say we dont have a lot of money or I'm simply not going to pay for any of the big time players--he would certainly save a lot of Reds fans needless frustration...same ole same ole same ole every offseason.....still waiting for all the genius moves, Walt--you're running out of time.

roby
12-20-2008, 12:48 AM
actually, in my opinion more casual fans thought Dunn sucked because of his low batting avg. and high K's. All fans were impressed with his long home runs. What all fans should have been impressed with was the fact that he is the only player in major league baseball to hit 40 HR's in each of the last 5 years while putting up OBP's of .388, .387, .365, .386, & .386. To say he was a really bad overall baseball player is borderline foolish and is not supported by the overall numbers

I don't know. The object is to score runs...and Dunn left an inordinant amount of runners on base and in "scoring" position. He went several seasons without a sacrifice fly at all, and it seemed that when he hit a homerun, the Reds were either way behind or way ahead. (Most often way behind!). Added to this the fact that he played horrible defense, and let's just say that the Reds could have done a lot better for the money they spent.

His OBP was very base-on-balls driven...too often coming at a time when the team needed their slugger to drive the ball. Walks can sometimes be rally killers too.

757690
12-20-2008, 12:54 AM
I think this is a case of Fay doing some sloppy reporting. He says that "The Reds quest for a right-handed-hitting outfielder is now centered on Jerry Hairston Jr., Rocco Baldelli and Willy Taveras. " But Walt was very clear that he wanted a middle of the lineup RH hitter for LF. Baldelli is the only one of those three that could even be considered a 3-5 hitter, and he is only that if he is perfectly healthy, which is a big question mark.

All three are CF, so I think that Walt has narrowed his search for a RH compliment to Dickerson, to these three. I do not think that Walt considers any of these three as a replacement for Dunn in LF. This belief is bolstered by Walt's assertion early on that he did not think that the free agent market had any affordable Rh power hitters and that he would try to fill that via a trade.

So settle down, I really believe that Walt will get a big RH power hitter for LF, and it won't be any of these three.

Of these three, I really hope the order Walt has for them is Hairston, Baldelli and Taveras a distant third.

IowaRed
12-20-2008, 01:08 AM
Adam Dunn had more runs scored and RBI during the last 5 years than any Red and had 100 or more RBI in 4 of those 5 seasons. If the object is to score runs he did more than his share for this team. You say his OBP was base on balls driven, that's exactly what a productive hitter does. When a pitcher doesn't throw strikes, a productive hitter doesn't swing at them, Adam Dunn couldn't control where a pitcher throws the pitches. I'm hoping you aren't saying you would rather have had Dunn swing at bad pitches and have more K's just so he didn't walk so much, because that's what it sounds like. Whether Dunn is worth the money it would take to get him back is a whole different issue. Claims about his ineptitude without actual proof mean very little

dougflynn23
12-20-2008, 02:23 AM
:rolleyes: My dream offseason involved Nick Swisher and Casey Blake with EE traded to Texas for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Hairston resigned to platoon with Dickerson until Dickerson proves he can stay healthy and hit LHP, So that's gone.

I'm good with Baldelli, but Baldelli and Dickerson being depended on to give you 1200 AB's is taking a huge risk. I want no part of Wily Taveras as he is incredibly one dimensional and not a very good defensive player at all.

gedred69
12-20-2008, 02:28 AM
Adam Dunn had more runs scored and RBI during the last 5 years than any Red and had 100 or more RBI in 4 of those 5 seasons. If the object is to score runs he did more than his share for this team. You say his OBP was base on balls driven, that's exactly what a productive hitter does. When a pitcher doesn't throw strikes, a productive hitter doesn't swing at them, Adam Dunn couldn't control where a pitcher throws the pitches. I'm hoping you aren't saying you would rather have had Dunn swing at bad pitches and have more K's just so he didn't walk so much, because that's what it sounds like. Whether Dunn is worth the money it would take to get him back is a whole different issue. Claims about his ineptitude without actual proof mean very little

Jeez, give it a rest. Further proof stats can be skewed to prove or dis-prove any stance one chooses to take. (Toronto GM nailed it). Kingman/Dunn? It's "Deja Vu all over again".

Nasty_Boy
12-20-2008, 04:47 AM
You guys are entertaining... please keep it up! The Martyites are out in full force!

An outfield of Bruce, Hairston, and Badelli is pretty nasty!

Captain Hook
12-20-2008, 05:18 AM
It is so hard to say with Dunn.HR are great, OBP is great and RBI's are good but every thing else is mostly below average.No doubt a big void needs filled and I think the guys we are talking about do not come close.This year and hopefully this year only we will all miss Dunn when it is all said and DUNN.

DannyB
12-20-2008, 09:25 AM
You guys are entertaining... please keep it up! The Martyites are out in full force!

An outfield of Bruce, Hairston, and Badelli is pretty nasty!
About as nasty as Dickerson,Taveras,Bruce:rolleyes:

IowaRed
12-20-2008, 10:11 AM
Jeez, give it a rest. Further proof stats can be skewed to prove or dis-prove any stance one chooses to take. (Toronto GM nailed it). Kingman/Dunn? It's "Deja Vu all over again".

maybe so but at least I'm using stats to support my claims, rather than throwing out nonsense based on...well, nonsense

redsfandan
12-20-2008, 11:59 AM
I don't know. The object is to score runs...and Dunn left an inordinant amount of runners on base and in "scoring" position. He went several seasons without a sacrifice fly at all, and it seemed that when he hit a homerun, the Reds were either way behind or way ahead. (Most often way behind!). Added to this the fact that he played horrible defense, and let's just say that the Reds could have done a lot better for the money they spent.

His OBP was very base-on-balls driven...too often coming at a time when the team needed their slugger to drive the ball. Walks can sometimes be rally killers too.


Remember when Dunn came back out of the dugout to acknowledge the fans response to his first sacrifice fly in two years? I wasn't impressed.

To me the bottom line with Dunn is that on any team his job would be the same. To drive in runs. While all the walks DO boost his value there's one problem I have with the obp vs ba argument with regards to Dunn. Imo, walks are more important to hitters that have little to no power. But walks won't help a hitter like Dunn drive in runs nearly as much as hits.

Bip Roberts
12-20-2008, 12:03 PM
Adam Dunn is fine but hes more a 2 hitter than a middle of the line up batter :o

CesarGeronimo
12-20-2008, 12:19 PM
I noticed this bit of "poetry" on a Colorado fan's blog. Sounds like PatTaveras was upset that Clint Hurdle wouldn't give him the leadoff spot. It's the perfect fit. Sure, he doesn't play D anything like Patterson, but PatTaveras is the burner Dusty's been needing to leadoff. He's the anti-clogger.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/93992-an-ode-to-willy-taveras

An Ode to Willy Taveras

Oh Willy Taveras, though your feet are fleet
To me, the bench holds your permanent seat
It's a shame you're not our problem anymore
For when you reached base, you would normally score

But therein lies the issues that be
Your two bum legs and .308 obp
As you flailed at pitches, Skip Hurdle turned terse
And filled out his lineup sans you hitting first
This irked you greatly, and doth you protest
That your stolen-base record placed you with the best

You came to the ballpark with your mind on a mission
But you still hit .204 with runners in scoring position
While Spilly was sparking an anemic offense
You were misjudging flies as you high-fived the fence

While we'll never forget your NLCS Game Two game-saver
The tastes in our mouths are not ones we will savor
Though your speed was electric and you possessed quite a burst
You forgot in the rule book that you can't steal first

So we had to part ways, what with the outfield youth
Climbing the ladder like George Michael Bluth
Like Santa's reindeer, we've got young guns to lead us
And it's so reminiscent of the Night Before Christmas
On Fowler, on Car-Gon, on Hawper and Smitty
On Stewart, on Tulo, on Atkins, and Spilly

So unfortunately Willy, your talent's not needed
But I'm sure that your hot stove will soon be reheated
When you face us as foe, I'm sure you'll be pissed
But just know that in Denver, your stats won't be missed

DannyB
12-20-2008, 12:26 PM
Like it or not,He is the 2nd best leftfielder on the market right now.

jmac
12-20-2008, 12:47 PM
Remember when Dunn came back out of the dugout to acknowledge the fans response to his first sacrifice fly in two years? I wasn't impressed.

To me the bottom line with Dunn is that on any team his job would be the same. To drive in runs. While all the walks DO boost his value there's one problem I have with the obp vs ba argument with regards to Dunn. Imo, walks are more important to hitters that have little to no power. But walks won't help a hitter like Dunn drive in runs nearly as much as hits.
I havent said much on Dunn but I will add this. As you stated, many point to his OBP which is fine except that many times, his walks put him on base for the likes of Ross/Bako/Janish/Agon etc to drive him in which didnt happen more often than not.
Many times, I would have rather Adam swing the lumber but that is a moot point now.
I agree with Bip in that Adam and his OBP is more suited for a two hole than a 3-5 spot.
Adam is a selective hitter and I think he will always be that regardless of whether Manny Ramirez bats behind him or Jeff Keppinger.
I am not knocking him just stating his approach to the plate.

mroby85
12-20-2008, 01:54 PM
maybe so but at least I'm using stats to support my claims, rather than throwing out nonsense based on...well, nonsense

There are things called entangibles that aren't measured in stats. I know all the stats geeks in their nerd world don't like to admit this, but it's true. Adam Dunn's OBP could be looked at as a farse, because when the game is on the line, he's not a guy they're afraid to pitch to. He is not the type of hitter that strikes fear into a pitcher, and they tend to walk him more frequently when a base is open, rather than a guy like Barry Bonds who's OBP actually meant something, when they would rather intentionally walk him with the bases loaded, because he scared them to death. Another thing that can't be measured in stats, but also can't be denied is Adam Dunn played terrible defense. He also K'd at amazing rates, which some people seem to just want to forget like that doesn't matter. It may not be a category in your little statistical world, but there are such a thing as productive outs, which Adam Dunn seldom made. I'm finished with this argument, but I just thought i'd respond once to the idea that i'm being foolish and don't know what i'm talking about, because I don't have statistics apparently to back what I say.

Did Dunn help Arizona in their playoff push when they got him?
How many times has Dunn been to postseason in his career? because he's been up for quite awhile.

IowaRed
12-20-2008, 02:51 PM
There are things called entangibles that aren't measured in stats. I know all the stats geeks in their nerd world don't like to admit this, but it's true. Adam Dunn's OBP could be looked at as a farse, because when the game is on the line, he's not a guy they're afraid to pitch to. He is not the type of hitter that strikes fear into a pitcher, and they tend to walk him more frequently when a base is open, rather than a guy like Barry Bonds who's OBP actually meant something, when they would rather intentionally walk him with the bases loaded, because he scared them to death. Another thing that can't be measured in stats, but also can't be denied is Adam Dunn played terrible defense. He also K'd at amazing rates, which some people seem to just want to forget like that doesn't matter. It may not be a category in your little statistical world, but there are such a thing as productive outs, which Adam Dunn seldom made. I'm finished with this argument, but I just thought i'd respond once to the idea that i'm being foolish and don't know what i'm talking about, because I don't have statistics apparently to back what I say.

Did Dunn help Arizona in their playoff push when they got him?
How many times has Dunn been to postseason in his career? because he's been up for quite awhile.

There were very broad negative statements made about Dunn, which sounded more like personal distaste rather than anything that actually can be proven. I posted some stats to prove his value, don't see anything wrong with that. A well thought out response would have been to post something to prove those broad negative statements or to disprove my data. I'm not a stat geek and purposely have stayed out of the "Dunn's value" discussions for quite a while but I do recognize the value of OBP, avoiding outs, and several absurd unsupported statements when I see them. If you don't want statements challenged you may want to provide some evidence. By the way, what I actually said was "To say he was a REALLY BAD overall baseball player is borderline foolish and is not supported by the overall numbers". That without a doubt still stands

Ghosts of 1990
12-20-2008, 04:05 PM
An outfield of Bruce, Baldelli, Hairston is mediocre at best.

Do you win pennants or playoff spots with that outfield? No way.

Never will happen. I'm just being a realist.

Baldelli and Hairston arent true everyday players. Baldelli would be lucky to play 110-120 games at this stage given his physical state. Baldelli would be a nice 4th OF, not an every day player. Why do you guys think Tampa (a team on the rise) isn't bringing him back? They see the writing on the wall. Hairston proved he can't play everyday and stay healthy although he showed me something last year. He'll probably cost more then he's worth.

Bruce would have to have a HUGE year and thats asking a lot of a 22 year old. And if bruce gets hurt thats a slop OF without a guy like Dunn out there.

mroby85
12-20-2008, 04:49 PM
There were very broad negative statements made about Dunn, which sounded more like personal distaste rather than anything that actually can be proven. I posted some stats to prove his value, don't see anything wrong with that. A well thought out response would have been to post something to prove those broad negative statements or to disprove my data. I'm not a stat geek and purposely have stayed out of the "Dunn's value" discussions for quite a while but I do recognize the value of OBP, avoiding outs, and several absurd unsupported statements when I see them. If you don't want statements challenged you may want to provide some evidence. By the way, what I actually said was "To say he was a REALLY BAD overall baseball player is borderline foolish and is not supported by the overall numbers". That without a doubt still stands

I have no personal distaste for Adam Dunn, outside of the frustration of having to watch him play every day for several years, but it's not like I had a biased opinion coming in, and just didn't like him for some other reason unrelated to baseball. Like I said earlier which some people either don't get, or choose not to get is that some things can't be proven through statistics, and are rather proven from watching them play every day. There are fans who would agree with me about Adam Dunn, it's not like i'm making these outrageous comments. I will admit he has some stats that appear flashy, but when you watch him on a day to day basis he is not a guy who wills his team to victory.

redsfanmia
12-20-2008, 05:48 PM
Dunn puts up pretty good numbers but he just does not look good doing it. He goes through hot streaks where he looks like an MVP and then he goes through streaks where he looks like he should be playing in my sunday league. The guy is just frustrating to watch IMO and then we have to hear from the stat gang that he is great and it just frustates us more. I for one am glad Dunn is gone no matter what we put out in left to replace him.

IowaRed
12-20-2008, 07:45 PM
not being from the stat gang, I've never claimed him to be great....again I was responding to somebody calling him an "overall really bad baseball player". There is no evidence to prove that and some person on an internet board who doesn't have any facts, yet says it anyway is likely to get called on it. Frustrating, K's too much, not good defensively, but really bad? Just not true

redsfanmia
12-20-2008, 08:23 PM
not being from the stat gang, I've never claimed him to be great....again I was responding to somebody calling him an "overall really bad baseball player". There is no evidence to prove that and some person on an internet board who doesn't have any facts, yet says it anyway is likely to get called on it. Frustrating, K's too much, not good defensively, but really bad? Just not true

I am with you, the guy drove me crazy but he was a good player just not my cup of tea.

roby
12-21-2008, 12:18 AM
not being from the stat gang, I've never claimed him to be great....again I was responding to somebody calling him an "overall really bad baseball player". There is no evidence to prove that and some person on an internet board who doesn't have any facts, yet says it anyway is likely to get called on it. Frustrating, K's too much, not good defensively, but really bad? Just not true

To say that somebody is a really bad player...or NOT a really bad player for that matter, is based on perception and opinion to some extent and cannot be proven one way or the other. Some people actually think that Willy Taveras is a good player. I've even read a few who want to re-sign Corey Patterson. YOUR description of Adam Dunn (frustrating, K's too much, not good defensively) sounds like a pretty bad player to me! But if that is what you like...more power to ya!

captainmorgan07
12-21-2008, 12:55 AM
Dunn had both his positives and negatives. He was a great stats guy but his terrible hitting with runners in scoring position drove us fans crazy. His defense and strikeouts will surely not be missed on this club. We never won anything with Dunn it's time to see what we can do without him. With an upgrade in defense in left, which will cost us less run which also means we don't have to score as many.

BRM13
12-21-2008, 01:38 AM
Dunn puts up pretty good numbers but he just does not look good doing it. He goes through hot streaks where he looks like an MVP and then he goes through streaks where he looks like he should be playing in my sunday league. The guy is just frustrating to watch IMO and then we have to hear from the stat gang that he is great and it just frustates us more. I for one am glad Dunn is gone no matter what we put out in left to replace him.

Dunn is a substance versus style argument in many respects. Dunn's game is not aesthetically pleasing to many (most?) people. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value and lots of it. The reason for looking at stats is that not everything is as simple as it appears. Some guys look good, but aren't; and some guys don't look good, but are.

Dunn has something in common with the under-appreciated grinders we knew in school or at work: He looks bad, almost no one looks at Dunn and thinks he looks like a great player. He looks bad due to his lack of quickness, soft-looking body, lots of K's, low BA, lumbering in the outfield, and most importantly because he doesn't visibly burn with Pete Rose's intensity. But, despite all outward appearances, the statistics tell us that Dunn creates a lot of runs by avoiding outs and hitting home runs. This doesn't mean he's the greatest player in the game or anything like that, but it does mean that he is very likely to be undervalued if we grade him on style points.

The Reds misused him for some of the same reasons fans were so frequently frustrated by him. People see 6'6" and 250+ pounds hitting 40 HRs and figure he's a classic power hitter. He's not, he's a good (not great) OBP guy with freakish, almost historic power. The framing for Dunn confuses people. He ranked higher last year by OBP (17th in majors) than by SLG (31st). I think this is true most years of his career. If you think of him as a guy who gets on base and scores runs, the HRs are a huge bonus. If you think of him as a guy who drives in runs, the Ks and the low RBI totals are huge minuses. What is odd about Dunn is that we think of guys who derive a good portion of their value by not making outs as quick, good defenders. Of course, if Dunn was quick and a good defender with his other skills he'd be one of the very best players in the game. He's not, but that is hardly a crime no matter what Marty and the Cowboy told us every night.

The Reds can do a lot worse than a guy who OPS'd around .900 like clockwork. His defense means his value isn't as high as his run creating stats indicate but the Reds will have to do a lot better than somebody like Taveras to replace Dunn's value in LF.

Hondo
12-21-2008, 03:01 AM
Dunn is a substance versus style argument in many respects. Dunn's game is not aesthetically pleasing to many (most?) people. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value and lots of it. The reason for looking at stats is that not everything is as simple as it appears. Some guys look good, but aren't; and some guys don't look good, but are.

Dunn has something in common with the under-appreciated grinders we knew in school or at work: He looks bad, almost no one looks at Dunn and thinks he looks like a great player. He looks bad due to his lack of quickness, soft-looking body, lots of K's, low BA, lumbering in the outfield, and most importantly because he doesn't visibly burn with Pete Rose's intensity. But, despite all outward appearances, the statistics tell us that Dunn creates a lot of runs by avoiding outs and hitting home runs. This doesn't mean he's the greatest player in the game or anything like that, but it does mean that he is very likely to be undervalued if we grade him on style points.


The Reds misused him for some of the same reasons fans were so frequently frustrated by him. People see 6'6" and 250+ pounds hitting 40 HRs and figure he's a classic power hitter. He's not, he's a good (not great) OBP guy with freakish, almost historic power. The framing for Dunn confuses people. He ranked higher last year by OBP (17th in majors) than by SLG (31st). I think this is true most years of his career. If you think of him as a guy who gets on base and scores runs, the HRs are a huge bonus. If you think of him as a guy who drives in runs, the Ks and the low RBI totals are huge minuses. What is odd about Dunn is that we think of guys who derive a good portion of their value by not making outs as quick, good defenders. Of course, if Dunn was quick and a good defender with his other skills he'd be one of the very best players in the game. He's not, but that is hardly a crime no matter what Marty and the Cowboy told us every night.

The Reds can do a lot worse than a guy who OPS'd around .900 like clockwork. His defense means his value isn't as high as his run creating stats indicate but the Reds will have to do a lot better than somebody like Taveras to replace Dunn's value in LF.

Agreed. :thumbup:

REDblooded
12-21-2008, 03:20 AM
actually, in my opinion more casual fans thought Dunn sucked because of his low batting avg. and high K's. All fans were impressed with his long home runs. What all fans should have been impressed with was the fact that he is the only player in major league baseball to hit 40 HR's in each of the last 5 years while putting up OBP's of .388, .387, .365, .386, & .386. To say he was a really bad overall baseball player is borderline foolish and is not supported by the overall numbers

overall extends beyond hitting homeruns and taking walks.

Natty Redlocks
12-21-2008, 07:15 AM
Dunn is a substance versus style argument in many respects. Dunn's game is not aesthetically pleasing to many (most?) people. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value and lots of it. The reason for looking at stats is that not everything is as simple as it appears. Some guys look good, but aren't; and some guys don't look good, but are.

Dunn has something in common with the under-appreciated grinders we knew in school or at work: He looks bad, almost no one looks at Dunn and thinks he looks like a great player. He looks bad due to his lack of quickness, soft-looking body, lots of K's, low BA, lumbering in the outfield, and most importantly because he doesn't visibly burn with Pete Rose's intensity. But, despite all outward appearances, the statistics tell us that Dunn creates a lot of runs by avoiding outs and hitting home runs. This doesn't mean he's the greatest player in the game or anything like that, but it does mean that he is very likely to be undervalued if we grade him on style points.

The Reds misused him for some of the same reasons fans were so frequently frustrated by him. People see 6'6" and 250+ pounds hitting 40 HRs and figure he's a classic power hitter. He's not, he's a good (not great) OBP guy with freakish, almost historic power. The framing for Dunn confuses people. He ranked higher last year by OBP (17th in majors) than by SLG (31st). I think this is true most years of his career. If you think of him as a guy who gets on base and scores runs, the HRs are a huge bonus. If you think of him as a guy who drives in runs, the Ks and the low RBI totals are huge minuses. What is odd about Dunn is that we think of guys who derive a good portion of their value by not making outs as quick, good defenders. Of course, if Dunn was quick and a good defender with his other skills he'd be one of the very best players in the game. He's not, but that is hardly a crime no matter what Marty and the Cowboy told us every night.

The Reds can do a lot worse than a guy who OPS'd around .900 like clockwork. His defense means his value isn't as high as his run creating stats indicate but the Reds will have to do a lot better than somebody like Taveras to replace Dunn's value in LF.

mmmmm tasty. I suspect you're an undercover moonlighter from the big boy board. The Pete Rose part is classic, but the whole thing is the sort of quality we don't see much down here. I hope you don't mind I'm gonna paste it onto a Cubs board, they're even dumber than Reds fans.

redsfanmia
12-21-2008, 10:16 AM
Dunn is a substance versus style argument in many respects. Dunn's game is not aesthetically pleasing to many (most?) people. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value and lots of it. The reason for looking at stats is that not everything is as simple as it appears. Some guys look good, but aren't; and some guys don't look good, but are.

Dunn has something in common with the under-appreciated grinders we knew in school or at work: He looks bad, almost no one looks at Dunn and thinks he looks like a great player. He looks bad due to his lack of quickness, soft-looking body, lots of K's, low BA, lumbering in the outfield, and most importantly because he doesn't visibly burn with Pete Rose's intensity. But, despite all outward appearances, the statistics tell us that Dunn creates a lot of runs by avoiding outs and hitting home runs. This doesn't mean he's the greatest player in the game or anything like that, but it does mean that he is very likely to be undervalued if we grade him on style points.

The Reds misused him for some of the same reasons fans were so frequently frustrated by him. People see 6'6" and 250+ pounds hitting 40 HRs and figure he's a classic power hitter. He's not, he's a good (not great) OBP guy with freakish, almost historic power. The framing for Dunn confuses people. He ranked higher last year by OBP (17th in majors) than by SLG (31st). I think this is true most years of his career. If you think of him as a guy who gets on base and scores runs, the HRs are a huge bonus. If you think of him as a guy who drives in runs, the Ks and the low RBI totals are huge minuses. What is odd about Dunn is that we think of guys who derive a good portion of their value by not making outs as quick, good defenders. Of course, if Dunn was quick and a good defender with his other skills he'd be one of the very best players in the game. He's not, but that is hardly a crime no matter what Marty and the Cowboy told us every night.

The Reds can do a lot worse than a guy who OPS'd around .900 like clockwork. His defense means his value isn't as high as his run creating stats indicate but the Reds will have to do a lot better than somebody like Taveras to replace Dunn's value in LF.

I have never said Dunn was a bad player or that he is worthless, its just the way he plays is not the way I like my best player to play. Dunn is what he is and to me its a good yet frustrating player who's time had played out in Cincinnati and thus I for one am glad that he is gone for his sake as well as the sake of the team.

Betterread
12-21-2008, 12:13 PM
Dunn is a substance versus style argument in many respects. Dunn's game is not aesthetically pleasing to many (most?) people. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value and lots of it. The reason for looking at stats is that not everything is as simple as it appears. Some guys look good, but aren't; and some guys don't look good, but are.

Dunn has something in common with the under-appreciated grinders we knew in school or at work: He looks bad, almost no one looks at Dunn and thinks he looks like a great player. He looks bad due to his lack of quickness, soft-looking body, lots of K's, low BA, lumbering in the outfield, and most importantly because he doesn't visibly burn with Pete Rose's intensity. But, despite all outward appearances, the statistics tell us that Dunn creates a lot of runs by avoiding outs and hitting home runs. This doesn't mean he's the greatest player in the game or anything like that, but it does mean that he is very likely to be undervalued if we grade him on style points.

The Reds misused him for some of the same reasons fans were so frequently frustrated by him. People see 6'6" and 250+ pounds hitting 40 HRs and figure he's a classic power hitter. He's not, he's a good (not great) OBP guy with freakish, almost historic power. The framing for Dunn confuses people. He ranked higher last year by OBP (17th in majors) than by SLG (31st). I think this is true most years of his career. If you think of him as a guy who gets on base and scores runs, the HRs are a huge bonus. If you think of him as a guy who drives in runs, the Ks and the low RBI totals are huge minuses. What is odd about Dunn is that we think of guys who derive a good portion of their value by not making outs as quick, good defenders. Of course, if Dunn was quick and a good defender with his other skills he'd be one of the very best players in the game. He's not, but that is hardly a crime no matter what Marty and the Cowboy told us every night.

The Reds can do a lot worse than a guy who OPS'd around .900 like clockwork. His defense means his value isn't as high as his run creating stats indicate but the Reds will have to do a lot better than somebody like Taveras to replace Dunn's value in LF.
I appreciate the time and effort you made in presenting the argument that Dunn is an "under-appreciated grinder" that "looks bad" and doesn't "look like a player". My point of view is different. I remember the Reds paying far over slot value for him in the 1998 draft, which was a big risk at the time because he looked like a future U Texas QB. I admired the Reds' approach and it looked like it paid off when I thought he looked like a special player from the first year in Dayton 1999. He had power and patience that I had not seen in a Reds player before. When he hit the majors in 2001, he had a spectacular debut. He continued to cultivate those power and OBP skills through the time he was a red. To me he always looked good and not only looked like a player, but a special player, a difference-maker. He has the misfortune of not being great, but merely very good. For the Reds, very good was apparently not good enough. So they decided he was not in their future plans. I think he will be missed until another talent comes along to match and exceed his ability. I think he should be remembered as a true talent that, while not quite meeting expectations (of some), was a talent and very good ballplayer for a poor team and foolish organization.

BLEEDS
12-21-2008, 12:47 PM
The Reds also are believed to have an offer out to Taveras, who they see as solution to the leadoff/center field spot.

:cry::bang::eek:

:barf:

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Plus Plus
12-21-2008, 05:23 PM
I don't really understand the hatred for Taveras. Baseball Prospectus 2008 said, before the 2008 season which was so bad that i think most people would believe it to be an aberration,


"When healthy, he was a critical part of the Rockies' performance, giving them a true defensive center fielder--a great one, actually--for the first time in franchise history. His glove, along with that of tulowitzki, knocked enough runs off the board to make the soft-throwing Rockies staff an effective one. Taveras has been working [last] offseason to improve his conditioning with an eye toward staying in the lineup. If healthy, he's a down-ballot MVP candidate thanks to his speed-driven batting average and Gold Glove quality defense in center.

BLEEDS
12-21-2008, 08:33 PM
It is so hard to say with Dunn.HR are great, OBP is great and RBI's are good but every thing else is mostly below average.

HR, OBP, and RBI's are good.
Please, describe "everything else".
- especially as it relates to a LF Power Bat you'd ideally put in the 3 or 4 hole?!

Outside of "Defense" which has already been debated to death, although widely known to all in MLB as "Gold Glove NOT required for LF", so I'd be interested to hear what else.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
12-21-2008, 10:06 PM
This thread (no doubt!) is the reason that not everybody can post on the big board. It's not even a stats vs. intangibles thing... it's a genuine misunderstanding of the game of baseball and a total lack of tolerance for anyone that isn't a Pete Rose type player. If AD would have come up a Yankee he would be beloved and boasted as a possible future HOF player. Some of the statements on here aren't based in fact and there is no evidence to support the side that is taken... only personal preferences, Martyisms seem to matter.

Please continue

BLEEDS
12-21-2008, 10:27 PM
This thread (no doubt!) is the reason that not everybody can post on the big board. It's not even a stats vs. intangibles thing... it's a genuine misunderstanding of the game of baseball and a total lack of tolerance for anyone that isn't a Pete Rose type player. If AD would have come up a Yankee he would be beloved and boasted as a possible future HOF player. Some of the statements on here aren't based in fact and there is no evidence to support the side that is taken... only personal preferences, Martyisms seem to matter.

Please continue

TRUE DAT!!

In fact, they are mocking this entire thread over in the ORG.

Baldelli in Left, and Dickerson/Tavares in CF. THIS is the types of "rationalization" that goes on over here...
:(

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfandan
12-22-2008, 05:21 AM
This thread (no doubt!) is the reason that not everybody can post on the big board. It's not even a stats vs. intangibles thing... it's a genuine misunderstanding of the game of baseball and a total lack of tolerance for anyone that isn't a Pete Rose type player. If AD would have come up a Yankee he would be beloved
and boasted as a possible future HOF player. Some of the statements on here aren't based in fact and there is no evidence to support the side that is taken... only personal preferences, Martyisms seem to matter.

Please continue

Thanks Nasty_Boy maybe we'll do that but don't be afraid to chime in ok? It's always impressive when someone encourages other people, that he doesn't agree with, to state their own opinions on something but he doesn't express his own opinions except to bash the people he's encouraged. Do you state your case for why Dunn could possibly be a future HOF player? Nah. You just bash instead. Well I'm impressed. It's obvious from your profile that you're a Dunn fan. So why not state your case and provide something constructive to the discussion.

Now I've taken a look at Dunns stats when he has runners in scoring position and when men are on base and I'll admit that I've DEFINITELY underestimated Dunns ability to drive in runs. That doesn't mean that I would've handed him a multi-year deal like some others. We have Dorn, Frazier, Alonso, etc on the horizon and, while it's obviously not a lock that we'd end up with the same kind of production, what IS a lock is that THOSE players won't cost tens of millions of dollars a year. We can still have good production out of left in 2011 but we would be able to use the difference in money on a big improvement at shortstop and maybe a good starting pitcher too.

We can't afford to have ONE player make $16-18+ million a year no matter how good he is. To those that want(ed) Dunn, Manny, Teix, Dye, Burrell, Abreu, Peavy, Sabathia, Furcal, Beltre, Sheets, I-Rod, etc it's important to remember that baseball decisions are made with financial considerations in mind more than ever. If we had four players that averaged $15 million a year we would be left with less than $30 million for the other 21 players so we would end up with ALOT of below average players and there's no way we'd be able to compete like that.

I've said it before, I have no problem if Dunn is back as our leftfielder in '09 IF it's for 1-2 years and the money makes sense but we're not the yankees.

Nasty_Boy
12-22-2008, 12:31 PM
If Dorn, Frazier, Alonso, and even Bruce and Votto end up with half the career of Adam Dunn we will be extremely lucky. Guys just don't hit 40+ HRs every year for half a decade all in their 20's. And that's a big part of my reasoning for AD being so underated... he's played on terrible teams with terrible pitch with zero protection all the while he was misused in the lineup. There is a very strong chance that given Dunn's ability to stay healthy and play through injuries that he could put together 4-5 more monster seasons and be on the threshold of 500 HRs before he's 34-35 years old. And if Dunn finds himself with a winning team, with a solid lineup around him he could have HOF RBI and walk totals. He will also have the advantage of putting up these numbers after steroid testing, so he may get the nod over guys that are under the cloud of suspision.

redsfandan
12-22-2008, 04:43 PM
Ok, well that sounds like you're selling those guys (Dorn, Frazier, Alonso, Bruce, and Votto) a little short when you say that we'd be lucky if they had HALF the career of Dunn. Imo, We don't need one of them to MATCH his production anyway. If you end up with an .850+ ops and 35 hrs then I think we'd be ok with improvements in other areas.

I'll agree that he was unlucky to spend the fist 8 years of his career on the teams he did. Alot of players are that unlucky. You mention how he was "misused". I don't want to assume what you specifically meant by that. Someone else mentioned that he should be in the #2 spot instead of the middle of the lineup. But how many 40 hr hitters hit 2nd? Wouldn't people want a hitter like that to be in a position to drive in runs? Based on what he's done his ops WOULD take a boost in the #2 spot BUT his runs and rbi would slip. Which is another reason why I think he's not so much unlucky to have been on those teams but unlucky to be in the NL.

If he was in the AL not only wouldn't you hear about how he's such a defensive liability but also you could put him in the #2 spot and one of the batters in front of him wouldn't be an automatic out like pitchers usually are. So on the right AL team his rbi and runs would be better cuz the batters behind him AND in front of him would be better. Unless he's dead set on staying in the NL his agent should recognize that the AL would make more sense Imo. Instead of campaigning to be a Cub he should want to be a White Sox player instead. It's not his fault the teams were so bad but if he picks a team that isn't much better then it IS his fault if the next few years are just like the last few.

Yeah he has a shot at the hall but he's not a lock. He'd definitely have to stay healthy and not lose too much power when he's older. And he HAS been pretty lucky with his health so far.

By the way, I mentioned before how I had underestimated his ability to drive in runs. Take a look at these stats:

PA AB 2B HR RBI BB BA OBP SLG % OPS
665 515 32 23 213 118 .221 .363 .425 .789

No, those aren't Dunns stats. They are Nick Swishers stats with risp. Dunn is a very good offensive player but I would have taken a $5.3 million Swisher in '09 over Dunn who will likely cost AT LEAST twice as much.

Bip Roberts
12-22-2008, 06:08 PM
Adam Dunn is creeping toward holding a place on the Reds list of most overrated players in history. If you only read this board you would think he is a surefire HOFer and one of the top 10 best outfielders of all time.

redsfandan
12-22-2008, 06:17 PM
He's definitely not a "surefire" HOFer but he does have a shot. We can say that Pujols, who also started in the majors in 2001, is an obvious lock with a few more decent seasons. But in 20 years the stats that voters will care about the most with Dunn will be the homers and the rbi. The other positives (obp, slg %, ops) still won't matter as much as the counting stats. So he will HAVE to stay healthy for another 10 years and continue to have the hr/rbi #'s we've seen so far without too much of a dropoff.

Bip Roberts
12-22-2008, 06:20 PM
Adam Dunn might be the greatest Red to play since the Big Red Machine days.

Ghosts of 1990
12-22-2008, 06:23 PM
Ok, well that sounds like you're selling those guys (Dorn, Frazier, Alonso, Bruce, and Votto) a little short when you say that we'd be lucky if they had HALF the career of Dunn. Imo, We don't need one of them to MATCH his production anyway. If you end up with an .850+ ops and 35 hrs then I think we'd be ok with improvements in other areas.



Only if we win.....

If not, these guys will be called underachievers just like Adam Dunn was.

The guy put up HUGE numbers in a bad franchise an eventually; after managers and GMs and virtually every other player was gutted out, Dunn was the face of a losing regime because he was the only face that remained through all the years of losing. Suddenly his 40 home runs weren't anything special, nor were his 100 RBI's or going out and playing every day and earning his salary at least.

Like someone said if he's a Yankee or Red Sox player he's an MVP candidate or at the very least one of the faces of their franchise. Here he was 50/50 liked and disliked and he never got All star selections because we are a poor franchise, insignificant to those outside the Queen city.

He was hardly the perfect player but he was definitely our best player over a 6 year run and it's laughable to think that some believe he won't be missed.

freestyle55
12-22-2008, 06:40 PM
By the way, I mentioned before how I had underestimated his ability to drive in runs. Take a look at these stats:

PA AB 2B HR RBI BB BA OBP SLG % OPS
665 515 32 23 213 118 .221 .363 .425 .789

No, those aren't Dunns stats. They are Nick Swishers stats with risp. Dunn is a very good offensive player but I would have taken a $5.3 million Swisher in '09 over Dunn who will likely cost AT LEAST twice as much.

Dunn's stats:
SIT PA AB 2B HR RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS
RISP 1322 969 44 65 393 312 .225 .416 .474 .890
MOB 2201 1692 77 121 515 456 .242 .407 .506 .913


Swisher would have cost prospects also, Dunn's simply a contract offer. You can have Swisher, I'd take Dunn all day long and twice on Sunday. He is simply better at avoiding outs than anyone else in recent Reds history, and at this point with the economy the way it is, he's not getting a $15+ mil / yr deal...

redsfandan
12-22-2008, 07:42 PM
Only if we win.....

If not, these guys will be called underachievers just like Adam Dunn was.

The guy put up HUGE numbers in a bad franchise an eventually; after managers and GMs and virtually every other player was gutted out, Dunn was the face of a losing regime because he was the only face that remained through all the years of losing. Suddenly his 40 home runs weren't anything special, nor were his 100 RBI's or going out and playing every day and earning his salary at least.

Like someone said if he's a Yankee or Red Sox player he's an MVP candidate or at the very least one of the faces of their franchise. Here he was 50/50 liked and disliked and he never got All star selections because we are a poor franchise, insignificant to those outside the Queen city.

He was hardly the perfect player but he was definitely our best player over a 6 year run and it's laughable to think that some believe he won't be missed.

And who says we CAN'T win with one of our prospects in left in a year or two?

Don't twist words. Yeah 40 hrs/100 rbi are always an asset but he just became too expensive.

You can say that he didn't receive All-Star selections cuz he wasn't in the national spotlight enough but to say it was cuz we're a "poor franchise"? Nah

Sorry but, Imo, losing Dunn doesn't mean we can't still win. And THAT'S what matters most to fans. NOT how you do it.


... Swisher would have cost prospects also, Dunn's simply a contract offer. You can have Swisher, I'd take Dunn all day long and twice on Sunday. He is simply better at avoiding outs than anyone else in recent Reds history, and at this point with the economy the way it is, he's not getting a $15+ mil / yr deal...

When Swisher was dealt alot of people thought the yankees got a nice deal because of how much they gave up. Or didn't give up.

True Dunn MAY not receive $15+ million a year as a FA BUT if he went throuh arbitration he would have received MORE and a multi-year contract would have resulted in us tied to a player at $15m+/year for too many years. If you want to take Dunn for $15m+ a year/5+ years that's up to you but I'd rather plan to win with prospects that are much, MUCH cheaper.

redsfanmia
12-22-2008, 09:03 PM
Adam Dunn might be the greatest Red to play since the Big Red Machine days.

Barry Larkin, Eric Davis and Jose Rijo all say hello.

Bip Roberts
12-22-2008, 09:27 PM
Barry Larkin, Eric Davis and Jose Rijo all say hello.

:eek:

freestyle55
12-22-2008, 10:48 PM
If you want to take Dunn for $15m+ a year/5+ years that's up to you but I'd rather plan to win with prospects that are much, MUCH cheaper.

I'd be shocked if he gets that, unless Leatherpants goes nuts. He'll get 3-4 years, probably $40-50M...

You just tell me which prospects will put up the numbers that he does year in and year out, and when they're planning on doing that, and I'll happily agree with you, but I'd be shocked if we have anyone that will do that.

redsfandan
12-23-2008, 12:19 AM
I'd be shocked if he gets that, unless Leatherpants goes nuts. He'll get 3-4 years, probably $40-50M....


True Dunn MAY not receive $15+ million a year as a FA BUT if he went through arbitration he would have received MORE and a multi-year contract would have resulted in us tied to a player at $15m+/year for too many years. If you want to take Dunn for $15m+ a year/5+ years that's up to you but I'd rather plan to win with prospects that are much, MUCH cheaper.

Granted I probably could've written that better but the point is that IF he would've gone through arbitration or if we had tried to sign him to a multi-year deal he would've cost more than as a FA.


You just tell me which prospects will put up the numbers that he does year in and year out, and when they're planning on doing that, and I'll happily agree with you, but I'd be shocked if we have anyone that will do that.


Ok, well that sounds like you're selling those guys (Dorn, Frazier, Alonso, Bruce, and Votto) a little short ... Imo, We don't need one of them to MATCH his production anyway. If you end up with an .850+ ops and 35 hrs then I think we'd be ok with improvements in other areas. ...

Like I've said before, I just can't agree with the view that we NEED to have Dunn, or Dunn like stats, in left to win.

TheNext44
12-23-2008, 07:05 PM
Here is my take on the Reds lineup next year.

Hanigan/Hernandez will be at least 15 runs better than Bako/Ross
Dickerson/????? will be at least 25 runs better than Patterson
Bruce will be at least 20 runs better than he was last year.
Gonzo should be at least 30 runs better than Kepp was last year if he is healthy and if
Kepp should be at least 20 runs better than he was last year if he is the starting SS and healthy.
Phillips will be at least 15 runs better if he is used anywhere but the cleanup spot.
Add in around 25 runs saved just from having anyone other than Dunn and Jr in the outfield.

That is 130 runs better than last year. If they can replace Dunn in LF with a league average LF, that would have them lose 20 runs, so they would still be 110 runs better than last year That puts them at 814 runs for next year, which would have been the
second best in the league, and above .500 with the same runs against as last year.

Assuming that the rest of the pitching staff has the same numbers as last year (Harang won't be as bad, Volquez won't be as good), and you replace Fogg et all with Owing with his career numbers, that saves 44 runs. That would have the Reds with a 814-756 run differential which according to the Pyth. theory, leads to 86 wins.

So even with a league average LF, the Reds could possibly win 86 games next year, which would definitely keep them in contention for a wild card spot.

Slyder
12-23-2008, 11:12 PM
Thats a LOT of assumptions. I would much rather be making clear cut upgrades not guys that could bust and be lateral moves (Hernandez). Not to mention the thought that Tavares could still be our opening day CF and starter with Dickerson going to LF and that being a wash of Patterson.

TheNext44
12-24-2008, 12:14 AM
Thats a LOT of assumptions. I would much rather be making clear cut upgrades not guys that could bust and be lateral moves (Hernandez). Not to mention the thought that Tavares could still be our opening day CF and starter with Dickerson going to LF and that being a wash of Patterson.

Very few assumptions actually. That was using career numbers, which are usually very accurate. The only assumptions were Bruce improving, which everyone expects and Phillips improving out of the cleanup spot.

Also, even if the Reds sign (gasp!) Taveras, he would only be the RH side of a platoon which means he would get only around 250 AB, which is far less than Patterson. A Dickerson/Taveras platoon could easily create 25 more runs than Patterson did last year.

Slyder
12-24-2008, 12:18 AM
Very few assumptions actually. That was using career numbers, which are usually very accurate. The only assumptions were Bruce improving, which everyone expects and Phillips improving out of the cleanup spot.

Also, even if the Reds sign (gasp!) Taveras, he would only be the RH side of a platoon which means he would get only around 250 AB, which is far less than Patterson. A Dickerson/Taveras platoon could easily create 25 more runs than Patterson did last year.

Remember who the manager is. My money is that Taveras (short of a major/mega deal signing/trade) that Tavares will trod out to CF everyday by Duhhsty.

BLEEDS
12-24-2008, 11:23 AM
Here is my take on the Reds lineup next year.

Hanigan/Hernandez will be at least 15 runs better than Bako/Ross
Dickerson/????? will be at least 25 runs better than Patterson
Bruce will be at least 20 runs better than he was last year.
Gonzo should be at least 30 runs better than Kepp was last year if he is healthy and if
Kepp should be at least 20 runs better than he was last year if he is the starting SS and healthy.
Phillips will be at least 15 runs better if he is used anywhere but the cleanup spot.
Add in around 25 runs saved just from having anyone other than Dunn and Jr in the outfield.

That is 130 runs better than last year. If they can replace Dunn in LF with a league average LF, that would have them lose 20 runs, so they would still be 110 runs better than last year That puts them at 814 runs for next year, which would have been the
second best in the league, and above .500 with the same runs against as last year.

Assuming that the rest of the pitching staff has the same numbers as last year (Harang won't be as bad, Volquez won't be as good), and you replace Fogg et all with Owing with his career numbers, that saves 44 runs. That would have the Reds with a 814-756 run differential which according to the Pyth. theory, leads to 86 wins.

So even with a league average LF, the Reds could possibly win 86 games next year, which would definitely keep them in contention for a wild card spot.

:rolleyes:

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Emin3mShady07
12-24-2008, 05:02 PM
Here is my take on the Reds lineup next year.

Hanigan/Hernandez will be at least 15 runs better than Bako/Ross
Dickerson/????? will be at least 25 runs better than Patterson
Bruce will be at least 20 runs better than he was last year.
Gonzo should be at least 30 runs better than Kepp was last year if he is healthy and if
Kepp should be at least 20 runs better than he was last year if he is the starting SS and healthy.
Phillips will be at least 15 runs better if he is used anywhere but the cleanup spot.
Add in around 25 runs saved just from having anyone other than Dunn and Jr in the outfield.

That is 130 runs better than last year. If they can replace Dunn in LF with a league average LF, that would have them lose 20 runs, so they would still be 110 runs better than last year That puts them at 814 runs for next year, which would have been the
second best in the league, and above .500 with the same runs against as last year.

Assuming that the rest of the pitching staff has the same numbers as last year (Harang won't be as bad, Volquez won't be as good), and you replace Fogg et all with Owing with his career numbers, that saves 44 runs. That would have the Reds with a 814-756 run differential which according to the Pyth. theory, leads to 86 wins.

So even with a league average LF, the Reds could possibly win 86 games next year, which would definitely keep them in contention for a wild card spot.

I would say it is quite a stretch to say that gonzo would be 30 runs better than Kepp, or that Kepp is 20 runs better than himself. A top notch defensive shortstop like JJ Hardy is (according to last year's fielding bible) about 25 runs better defensively and I would say that while Gonzo is much better than Kepp is only about 15 runs tops on defense and not that much better on offense. Kepp's defense really was not too adversely affected by his injury, where he struggled was offense. I'd say that Kepp is maybe 10 runs better on O and about the same as he was this year on D. Phillps and Bruce will most likely improve but saying they will collectively increase by 35 runs is a stretch. Phillips has great platoon splits against Lefties but he still struggles with the RH breaking ball. He has never had a great IsoD and neither has bruce really, so I don't think that their OBPs will increase by that huge of an amount. And as to all of this anti-Dunn argument it is ridiculous to say that if the reds start out with Dickerson/Baldelli they are a better team than if they had Dunn. I mean this is like beating a dead horse but was Albert Pujols the reason the cardinals lost? Baseball is a team game and to criticize your best position player for going through years of not winning is ridiculous. Dunn>Baldelli/dickerson/taveras.

BLEEDS
12-24-2008, 05:19 PM
Dunn>Baldelli/dickerson/taveras.

Think about that for a second.

Can you believe you Actually had to point that out, let alone defend, that formulae?

Only on the Sundeck... :eek:

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Slyder
12-24-2008, 05:36 PM
Very few assumptions actually. That was using career numbers, which are usually very accurate. The only assumptions were Bruce improving, which everyone expects and Phillips improving out of the cleanup spot.

Also, even if the Reds sign (gasp!) Taveras, he would only be the RH side of a platoon which means he would get only around 250 AB, which is far less than Patterson. A Dickerson/Taveras platoon could easily create 25 more runs than Patterson did last year.

Hanigan/Hernandez will be at least 15 runs better than Bako/Ross


There cant be any worse duo than Bako/Ross, but remember people ran on Hernandez like its going out of style last year. I dont care if he did "quit" on his team, nothing can defend his awful defense last year. And youre assuming he returns to norms which for catchers is never a sure thing. Hannigan is going to be relegated to maybe twice a week as the Reds are paying Hernandez to be a starter and going to give him every opportunity to prove the people like me wrong that this was a total waste of time.

Dickerson/????? will be at least 25 runs better than Patterson

Prediction #1: If Tavares is indeed in a Reds Uni Duhhhsty will make sure he is out there in CF and leading off. Everyone thought Patterson would be a platoon. Just like Corey Mendoza, I mean Patterson and probably cancels out half that as Tavares is a downgrade of Patterson with the glove and wont contribute that much to offense unless he's hitting like .315+.

Bruce will be at least 20 runs better than he was last year.


You acknowledge this is an assumption.

Gonzo should be at least 30 runs better than Kepp was last year if he is healthy and if
Kepp should be at least 20 runs better than he was last year if he is the starting SS and healthy.

That is a really big if. Gonzo would be healthy without family emergencies for the first time since he's been here. We dont even know if he'll have the same range let alone what sort of rust has developed on his swing. He could spend the first half of next year just getting back into the swing of things. Granted Im not ready to ship Gonzo out, its too soon to say for certain. I dont have any of the fancy numbers or fielding bible to quote from but Spring Training is when this needs to be discussed. He hasnt swung a bat in an actual game in over a year, nor has he taken the field in game time. Lets see what he can do in spring training before we automatically lop off a large chunk of runs in the runs allowed column.

Phillips will be at least 15 runs better if he is used anywhere but the cleanup spot.

Remember who the manager is. Unless we pull a coup on Manny or a Mia caulpa on Dye/Bailey you cant have Bruce/Votto hitting B2B in some eyes. And we shall resume the Brandon Phillips cleanup experiment.

Add in around 25 runs saved just from having anyone other than Dunn and Jr in the outfield.

Do you subtract 5 runs from the downgrade of Tavares from Patterson to CF? This team as a whole is not that much better than the team we fielded last year. 500 is the ceiling short of career years from Hernandez, Arroyo, OF to be acquired, and Bruce/Votto both busting out and doing their best Pujols impression.

TheNext44
12-24-2008, 05:57 PM
I would say it is quite a stretch to say that gonzo would be 30 runs better than Kepp, or that Kepp is 20 runs better than himself. A top notch defensive shortstop like JJ Hardy is (according to last year's fielding bible) about 25 runs better defensively and I would say that while Gonzo is much better than Kepp is only about 15 runs tops on defense and not that much better on offense. Kepp's defense really was not too adversely affected by his injury, where he struggled was offense. I'd say that Kepp is maybe 10 runs better on O and about the same as he was this year on D. Phillps and Bruce will most likely improve but saying they will collectively increase by 35 runs is a stretch. Phillips has great platoon splits against Lefties but he still struggles with the RH breaking ball. He has never had a great IsoD and neither has bruce really, so I don't think that their OBPs will increase by that huge of an amount. And as to all of this anti-Dunn argument it is ridiculous to say that if the reds start out with Dickerson/Baldelli they are a better team than if they had Dunn. I mean this is like beating a dead horse but was Albert Pujols the reason the cardinals lost? Baseball is a team game and to criticize your best position player for going through years of not winning is ridiculous. Dunn>Baldelli/dickerson/taveras.


First I want to make very clear that I was not making an anti-Dunn post. I would love it if the Reds signed Adam Dunn. I was only making that point that they don't need to get a premier run producer like Dunn to compete.

You are right, I was off on the Gonzo/Kepp run differential. I was only talking about offense, I really don't have access to numbers that can accurately translate into runs for defense, so I just ignored it. And I was only referring to Kepp's terrible year last year. In 120 games, he only produced around 50 runs. If you say that Gonzo plays 120 games next year, and he hits like he did in 07, then he should produce 70 runs. So you are right, he is only worth around 20 runs more than Kepp. Thank you for pointing that out, I used some sloppy math the first time. I do think that Kepp can offensively produce about the same as Gonzo when healthy, so that stays the same.


I really think that out of the cleanup spot, Phillips will swing less often at terrible pitches and his BA will rise. I think the same about Bruce, just because he will be a more experienced hitter. Their IsoD will stay the same, but their OBP will increase due to the higher BA. I agree these two will never have a high OBP, but it will be higher than it was last year for them. Bruce's was a terrible .314 and Phillips a terrible .312.


So that still makes the Reds 120 runs better than last year, or 100 runs better if they only get a league average LF. That still makes them an 84-85 win team according to Pythag.

As for Dunn, if they signed him, then they would score 120 runs more, and that would translate to close to a 90 win season, so yeah, I am all for that. I was just trying to show that it wasn't necessary to compete.

For those concerned about handedness, if they do sign Dunn, they can just
bat him cleanup against RHP, and bat Phillips or EE cleanup against LHP. That would generate even more runs.

Bip Roberts
12-24-2008, 06:07 PM
Bat Adam Dunn number 2 and I might think he is worth it.

Lockdwn11
12-24-2008, 06:55 PM
I have to ask. Why do you think that the reds don't want Dunn back. I don't think it has anything to do with Dunn's stats because he would clearly the best option outside Pat Burell I feel thier pretty much the same player. It has to be because they don't want him in the clubhouse around the young players. Now I'm not in the clubhouse so I'm not saying this as fact but we have all heard the rumors from people around the clubhouse and in the front office that feel that Dunn is a bad influence on the youngsters. Thats my take anyway

Lockdwn11
12-24-2008, 06:58 PM
Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07
Dunn>Baldelli/dickerson/taveras


Adam Dunn = Pat Burell

redsfanmia
12-25-2008, 01:45 PM
I have to ask. Why do you think that the reds don't want Dunn back. I don't think it has anything to do with Dunn's stats because he would clearly the best option outside Pat Burell I feel thier pretty much the same player. It has to be because they don't want him in the clubhouse around the young players. Now I'm not in the clubhouse so I'm not saying this as fact but we have all heard the rumors from people around the clubhouse and in the front office that feel that Dunn is a bad influence on the youngsters. Thats my take anyway

Amen Johnson.

Emin3mShady07
12-25-2008, 09:27 PM
Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07
Dunn>Baldelli/dickerson/taveras


Adam Dunn = Pat Burell

Over the past few years, offensively they have been very close.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?playerId=319&firstName=Adam&lastName=Dunn
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?lastName=burrell

But I think Dunn has been slightly better. Burrell's low BABIP to LD% is intriguing and he could have a great year next year in GABP, but I would still say that Dunn being 3 years younger gives him a slight edge in my book. Also, I got the Bill James handbook for 2008 for Christmas today and Adam Dunn was a +6 base runner and Burrell was a -3 runner (what amazes me is that Brandon Phillips is only +2) I'm not sure how those numbers translate into runs, but Dunn was actually relatively good on the base paths last year.

BLEEDS
12-26-2008, 11:28 AM
Over the past few years, offensively they have been very close.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?playerId=319&firstName=Adam&lastName=Dunn
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?lastName=burrell

But I think Dunn has been slightly better. Burrell's low BABIP to LD% is intriguing and he could have a great year next year in GABP, but I would still say that Dunn being 3 years younger gives him a slight edge in my book. Also, I got the Bill James handbook for 2008 for Christmas today and Adam Dunn was a +6 base runner and Burrell was a -3 runner (what amazes me is that Brandon Phillips is only +2) I'm not sure how those numbers translate into runs, but Dunn was actually relatively good on the base paths last year.

There is a phrase called "running yourself into outs", BP is really good at that.
When you only get on base 30% of the time, and then you get thrown out 30% of the time you try to steal a base, your speed isn't really helping you...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

bgwilly31
12-27-2008, 12:04 PM
Very few assumptions actually..

haha that was funny.



Dunn is not what this team needs right now. Dunn was just as bad as griffey was in the clubhouse. 2 peas in a pod.

The reds will be on there way up come next year. Just watch:)

TheNext44
12-27-2008, 04:07 PM
Here is my take on the Reds lineup next year.

Hanigan/Hernandez will be at least 15 runs better than Bako/Ross
Dickerson/????? will be at least 25 runs better than Patterson
Bruce will be at least 20 runs better than he was last year.
Gonzo should be at least 30 runs better than Kepp was last year if he is healthy and if
Kepp should be at least 20 runs better than he was last year if he is the starting SS and healthy.
Phillips will be at least 15 runs better if he is used anywhere but the cleanup spot.
Add in around 25 runs saved just from having anyone other than Dunn and Jr in the outfield.

That is 130 runs better than last year. If they can replace Dunn in LF with a league average LF, that would have them lose 20 runs, so they would still be 110 runs better than last year That puts them at 814 runs for next year, which would have been the
second best in the league, and above .500 with the same runs against as last year.

Assuming that the rest of the pitching staff has the same numbers as last year (Harang won't be as bad, Volquez won't be as good), and you replace Fogg et all with Owing with his career numbers, that saves 44 runs. That would have the Reds with a 814-756 run differential which according to the Pyth. theory, leads to 86 wins.

So even with a league average LF, the Reds could possibly win 86 games next year, which would definitely keep them in contention for a wild card spot.

Now with Taveras signed to play CF and leadoff, nevermind about what I said about the Reds being able to improve their offense from last year.

Rocket_Fuel
12-27-2008, 05:41 PM
Lets see, Dunn was a horrible fielder, struck out constantly, rarely got clutch hits, and, at one point, went years without a sacrifice fly RBI. I'm not exaggerating, he went several years without a sac fly. But he hit pretty homeruns I guess.