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camisadelgolf
12-20-2008, 01:19 PM
In order for the Reds to duplicate their 2008 numbers, they have to replace about 2,600 plate appearances with a line of .242/.330/.408. In theory, that shouldn't be too difficult.


NAME AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SH SF IBB AVG OBP SLG
Paul Bako 299 65 11 2 6 34 1 3 1 5 .217 .299 .328
Dave Ross 134 31 9 0 3 32 1 5 1 4 .231 .381 .366
Javier Valentin 129 33 8 0 4 14 0 0 1 0 .256 .326 .411
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 562 129 28 2 13 80 2 8 3 9 .230 .322 .356

Q. Can a combination of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan put up an OPS of at least .678?

A. Yes, absolutely. Out of the catcher position, I would expect a somewhat significant improvement from the 2008 numbers. Ryan Hanigan will hopefully continue to improve, and there's a decent chance that Hernandez will improve upon his numbers from last year. Wilkin Castillo and Craig Tatum aren't great hitters, but they couldn't do much worse than Paul Bako if they were given the opportunity that Paul Bako received.


NAME AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SH SF IBB AVG OBP SLG
Jolbert Cabrera 115 29 6 1 3 8 2 0 1 1 .252 .310 .400
Adam Dunn 373 87 14 0 32 74 6 0 5 6 .233 .373 .528
Corey Patterson 366 75 17 2 10 16 1 5 4 0 .205 .238 .344
Ryan Freel 131 39 8 0 0 8 1 2 1 0 .298 .340 .359
Ken Griffey 359 88 20 1 15 61 2 0 3 13 .245 .355 .432
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 1344 318 65 4 60 167 12 7 14 20 .237 .322 .425

Q. Can the Reds replace the outfielders who put up a combined .747 OPS?

A. At the moment, no, but by the end of the off season, most likely. If Norris Hopper or Laynce Nix is an opening day starter, you can go ahead and write the Reds in at fifth or sixth place in the NL Central. That's not going to happen, though. Jay Bruce and Norris Hopper should improve, and a Chris Dickerson/Norris Hopper platoon would probably OPS around .740, but the left field position is the biggest question. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect Jocketty to find an outfielder who can OPS around .800, which could potentially lead the Reds to an offensive improvement over last year. One other thing to note is that whoever they put in left field, aside from Pat Burrell, will play better defense than Dunn, so even if the new acquisition isn't putting up Dunn-like numbers, the gap won't be as large as it seems.


NAME AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SH SF IBB AVG OBP SLG
Scott Hatteberg 52 9 3 0 0 7 0 0 2 0 .173 .262 .231
Andy Phillips 73 17 3 0 3 6 1 0 0 0 .233 .300 .397
Jerry Hairston 261 85 20 2 6 23 3 8 2 0 .326 .384 .487
Juan Castro 10 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 .091 .000
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 396 111 26 2 9 37 4 8 4 0 .280 .339 .424

Q. Can the Reds make up for a .763 OPS from various infield and bench positions?

A. Maybe. Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion might improve on their 2008 production. Brandon Phillips will probably have similar production. As for shortstop, Jeff Keppinger probably had what will be his worst season over the next five seasons. Not only did he have a poor year offensively, he played poor defense. If Alex Gonzalez plays anything like the AGon of 2007, the Reds should see a big improvement at shortstop. All in all, the Reds probably won't be able to replace the career numbers Hairston put up. Defensively, though, the Reds need to find a way to make up for it. If Alex Gonzalez's knee prevents him from playing average defense, and if Jeff Keppinger gets significant playing time as a shortstop, the Reds will have probably downgraded their infield production from last year. However, if the Reds find a shortstop who can play average defense with a .730 OPS, which is difficult but not impossible, they will have improved from last year.


All in all, here is what the Reds need to replace to equal their production from the 2008 season:

TOTAL AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SH SF IBB AVG OBP SLG
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 2302 558 119 8 82 284 18 23 21 29 .242 .330 .408

Votto, Encarnacion, and Bruce are still young and improving and will likely help bridge the gap. Hernandez taking away Bako's at-bats and Dickerson taking away Patterson's at-bats should make a huge difference. Jeff Keppinger hopefully won't be the starting shortstop, but if he is, he can't do much worse than he did in 2008 because he had some bad luck and is simply too talented. I'm not expecting much from Alex Gonzalez, but if he somehow returns to form, it will be a huge addition to the team.

If the Reds want to repeat their offensive production from 2008, it looks to me that they just need to find a decent-to-good left fielder. However, the 2008 offense was far from impressive, and if they want to win in 2009, they will need to make a big upgrade at shortstop as well.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 01:21 PM
Good stuff, golf shirt!

camisadelgolf
12-20-2008, 01:43 PM
Replacing the offense?

Dunn and Griffey led to the Reds having about 129 RC over there 732 AB's.
Bako and Patterson led to the Reds having about 58 RC in 665 AB's.

So if the Reds get just league average (.792 OPS) for 732 AB's for LF/RF (http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?lg=ML&team=TOT&year=2008) its worth ~113 RC.
Now if the Reds get just league average at C/CF to replace the 665 AB's given to Patterson and Bako then thats worth ~89 RC.

So Dunn/Griffey/Bako/Patterson was worth 129+58= 187 RC
Replacing them with just league average in 2009 is worth 113+89= 202 RC.

Losing Dunn/Griffey isn't nearly as bad as losing Bako and Patterson is good. If the Reds can wind up getting even better than league average to replace those guys (LF/RF was about .792 OPS and C/CF was about .734 OPS) then they are increasing their run differential even more.

Scrap Irony
12-20-2008, 01:54 PM
This is the rux of the argument optimistic fans make, as it relates to the 09 Reds. Around the horn, then:

- Votto is likely to equal or better his 08 production, as those players who compare most closely to Votto enjoy better second seasons and better age 26 seasons.
- Phillips could be a good candidate for a bounce-back offensive season, assming he's not being put in a spot in the lineup that tries to make him something he's not. As a number six or seven hitter, he's a good bet for a 100 OPS+, as he'll probably see more fastball opportunities and be pitched around, due to his power potential and the pitcher's spot coming up. This should boost his OBP slightly and make him a more attractive hitter.
- Keppinger is perhaps the best bet to improve of anyone in major league baseball offensively. He played four months on an injured knee and, in struggling to overcome that injury, hurt the other. In 07, Keppinger posted a 125 OPS+. In early 08 (before the broken kneecap), he was hitting well over 300. Then, injury and ineffectiveness. Completely healthy, Keppinger is a good bet to hit well for a middle infielder.
- EdE is entering his age prime seasons and should show progressively more pop and patience. That will obviously impact his OPS and production.
- LF free agent (not named Taveras) should probably be expected to average an 800 OPS, thereby mitigating some of Dunn's outstanding production.
- CF was a cavern of suckitude for 300 AB or so and good the others. Assuming the CF isn't Taveras, Dickerson and a platoon partner could rightfully OPS in the 740 range.
- Bruce should improve and already came close of Junior's alleged production last season while he struggled.
- Hernandez is clearly better offensively than Bako. He should hit better in all areas. Hell, my grandma could hit better in all areas than Bako.

So, to recap:
09 Votto > 08 Votto
09 Phillips > 08 Phillips
09 Keppinger > 08 Keppinger
09 EdE > 08 EdE
Hernandez > Bako
LF FA < Dunn
CF FA > Patterson
09 Bruce > 08 Bruce/ Junior

SteelSD
12-20-2008, 02:32 PM
camis, what you posted from doug is really wheel-spinning from a team-building perspective. Even at his below-average level, Griffey combined with Dunn for 96.20 RC per 650 PA last season. Replacing 650 PA with basely league average performance (see: Lewis, Fred) would result in 92.27 RC per 650 PA; a decrease of about 4 Runs offensively. It gets worse as we add more PA.

Basically, the improvement within the group you're referencing will have to come from the Bako/Patterson replacements as replacing Dunn/Griffey with league average over their PA will actually result in a Run loss offensively. And frankly, if doug's formulas are accurate, it's pure folly to go out into the market to replace 1,619 PA if all you're going to get is a Run value gain of 15 Runs. That'll deplete cash and/or prospect resources pretty quickly. It's a bad place to be because one single misstep will completely wipe out a Run Diff gain that small over that many PA.

camisadelgolf
12-20-2008, 04:23 PM
camis, what you posted from doug is really wheel-spinning from a team-building perspective. Even at his below-average level, Griffey combined with Dunn for 96.20 RC per 650 PA last season. Replacing 650 PA with basely league average performance (see: Lewis, Fred) would result in 92.27 RC per 650 PA; a decrease of about 4 Runs offensively. It gets worse as we add more PA.

Basically, the improvement within the group you're referencing will have to come from the Bako/Patterson replacements as replacing Dunn/Griffey with league average over their PA will actually result in a Run loss offensively. And frankly, if doug's formulas are accurate, it's pure folly to go out into the market to replace 1,619 PA if all you're going to get is a Run value gain of 15 Runs. That'll deplete cash and/or prospect resources pretty quickly. It's a bad place to be because one single misstep will completely wipe out a Run Diff gain that small over that many PA.

1,619 PA
40% of the 1,619 PAs came from the catching position, almost all of which should be replaced by Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan. We're talking about improving over 600 PAs of .678 OPS with anywhere, realistically, from a .700 OPS to a .750 OPS. That would go a long way to replacing those four runs lost by replacing Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey with a league average player.

That's also not to mention that, as Scrap Irony pointed out, a lot of the current players on the roster should be improving. 2008 might end up being the worst year of Keppinger's career. Votto, Encarnacion, Phillips, and Bruce are all young and are expected to improve upon their 2008 numbers. Even if Keppinger doesn't have his expected comeback year, Alex Gonzalez could make a big difference toward replacing the 28% of PAs that came from the likes of Scott Hatteberg, Andy Phillips, Jerry Hairston, and Juan Castro, who put up a .763 OPS all together.

The big question comes down to how the Reds replace the remaining 32% of PAs that had a .747 OPS. Jermaine Dye could do that, theoretically, pretty easily. Heck, even a smaller acquisition like Wiggy Wiggington could replace that pretty easily.

Even though the Reds lost players like Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, I just don't see how the Reds offense doesn't improve at least a little for 2009 unless they decide they want Hopper as the starting left fielder. The Reds are, as far as I can tell, just one decent player away from equaling their 2008 production, and if it's a particularly good player, I could see the Reds offense having a huge spike in production.

SteelSD
12-20-2008, 04:37 PM
1,619 PA
40% of the 1,619 PAs came from the catching position, almost all of which should be replaced by Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan. We're talking about improving over 600 PAs of .678 OPS with anywhere, realistically, from a .700 OPS to a .750 OPS. That would go a long way to replacing those four runs lost by replacing Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey with a league average player.

21% of the 1,619 PA in question came from the Catching position (Bako). Not 40%.


That's also not to mention that, as Scrap Irony pointed out, a lot of the current players on the roster should be improving. 2008 might end up being the worst year of Keppinger's career. Votto, Encarnacion, Phillips, and Bruce are all young and are expected to improve upon their 2008 numbers. Even if Keppinger doesn't have his expected comeback year, Alex Gonzalez could make a big difference toward replacing the 28% of PAs that came from the likes of Scott Hatteberg, Andy Phillips, Jerry Hairston, and Juan Castro, who put up a .763 OPS all together.

28% of what? Of the Reds' 6,188 PA in 2008, Hatteberg, Andy Phillips, Hairston, and Castro combined for only 7.3%. There aren't any major gains likely to come from a sample that small. Secondly, any plan that involves absolutely everything going right is an exceptionally flawed plan. The Reds can't sit on their hands hoping that everything goes right for every player on their current roster while fishing for mediocrity in the FA or trade market. They need to chew away huge chunks of Run Diff with every single move. Anything else is most likely to result in a repeat of last year...and the year before...and...well, we know.


The big question comes down to how the Reds replace the remaining 32% of PAs that had a .747 OPS. Jermaine Dye could do that, theoretically, pretty easily. Heck, even a smaller acquisition like Wiggy Wiggington could replace that pretty easily.

32% of what?


Even though the Reds lost players like Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, I just don't see how the Reds offense doesn't improve at least a little for 2009 unless they decide they want Hopper as the starting left fielder. The Reds are, as far as I can tell, just one decent player away from equaling their 2008 production, and if it's a particularly good player, I could see the Reds offense having a huge spike in production.

If the Reds equal their 2008 offensive production, then get ready for yet another losing season. And if you think the addition of one good player gets the Reds back to a bad offense, that tells us a lot about what the Reds need to produce a good offensive season, doesn't it?

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 04:58 PM
Based on my quick analysis of camis' math, out of that total 2302 AB (2677 PA), 1344 of those total AB came from the OF (1564 PA). So we're looking at 58% of both the AB and the PA.

That's kind of a big chunk.

We've addressed the C situation by replacing what Ross and Bako (and Chip's beloved Javy Valentin) produced with Ramon Hernandez.

What we haven't addressed is an everyday LF, and a 4th OF. I'm not convinced Nix is, or should be our 4th OF. What I do know is that Norris Hopper isn't and shouldn't be our 4th OF.

Like I said in another thread, we can't hope that our offense will be ready to go for 2009 even if we were to add Pat the Bat (I used Dunn as the example in the other thread, but everyone knows how I feel about him by now). For this offense to get noticeably better, we'd have to add 2 Pat the Bats.

... and that ain't happenin'...

camisadelgolf
12-20-2008, 05:05 PM
21% of the 1,619 PA in question came from the Catching position (Bako). Not 40%.

Sorry, that's my fault. When you said '1,619 PA', I just assumed that was the total amount of PAs of the players I mentioned that are leaving. 24.8% was the actual number I wanted because that's how much of the production that needs to be replaced came from catchers.


28% of what? Of the Reds' 6,188 PA in 2008, Hatteberg, Andy Phillips, Hairston, and Castro combined for only 7.3%. There aren't any major gains likely to come from a sample that small. Secondly, any plan that involves absolutely everything going right is an exceptionally flawed plan. The Reds can't sit on their hands hoping that everything goes right for every player on their current roster while fishing for mediocrity in the FA or trade market. They need to chew away huge chunks of Run Diff with every single move. Anything else is most likely to result in a repeat of last year...and the year before...and...well, we know.

Just forget the 28% I mentioned in my last post. I just misunderstood your post. The actual number is 17.0%, which actually helps my argument. I agree that it's a bad plan to count on everything going right, but I'm just saying that if everything goes as expected, which, granted, never happens, the Reds offense should perform better in 2009 than it did in 2008, even if an impact bat isn't acquired. Still, if things always went as expected, Jerry Hairston wouldn't have had the year that he did in 2008, so bringing that up goes in both directions. Maybe Laynce Nix will be the next Ryan Ludwick. I wouldn't bank on it, but it could happen just like Brandon Phillips having a .230/.278/.390 year could happen.


32% of what?

Like I said, I just misunderstood your post. It's actually 58.3% of the PAs that need to be replaced that came from outfielders. Chris Dickerson and Norris Hopper will see expanded roles in 2009, which should result in increased production from the center field spot. Jay Bruce should improve on his rookie year and see more playing time, which should also help compensate for the losses of Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey. What's left is finding a starting left fielder and a reserve outfielder who can combine for about 700 PAs with league average production. If the Reds can do that, which shouldn't be too difficult, we should actually see an improvement from the Reds outfielders' 2008 performance.


If the Reds equal their 2008 offensive production, then get ready for yet another losing season. And if you think the addition of one good player gets the Reds back to a bad offense, that tells us a lot about what the Reds need to produce a good offensive season, doesn't it?

I agree that equaling the 2008 production is a recipe for losing. All I'm trying to say is that adding one good player would result in improvement and that adding two good players, with the second one being an everyday shortstop, could ultimately result in a winning team in 2009. Obviously, a lot would have to go right for that to happen, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

camisadelgolf
12-20-2008, 05:08 PM
Based on my quick analysis of camis' math, out of that total 2302 AB (2677 PA), 1344 of those total AB came from the OF (1564 PA). So we're looking at 58% of both the AB and the PA.

That's kind of a big chunk.

We've addressed the C situation by replacing what Ross and Bako (and Chip's beloved Javy Valentin) produced with Ramon Hernandez.

What we haven't addressed is an everyday LF, and a 4th OF. I'm not convinced Nix is, or should be our 4th OF. What I do know is that Norris Hopper isn't and shouldn't be our 4th OF.

Like I said in another thread, we can't hope that our offense will be ready to go for 2009 even if we were to add Pat the Bat (I used Dunn as the example in the other thread, but everyone knows how I feel about him by now). For this offense to get noticeably better, we'd have to add 2 Pat the Bats.

... and that ain't happenin'...

It looks like we're on the same wavelength with a lot of this stuff (i.e. the Reds need a starting left fielder and a #4 outfielder). I'm not sure we see eye to eye on this, though: I think the Reds are a Milton Bradley away from being a decent team and a Milton Bradley + a Rocco Baldelli away from being a good deam. However, those are two of the biggest question marks in baseball, but if they could both stay healthy for one season and produce near expected, the Reds would instantly be contenders imo.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:16 PM
It looks like we're on the same wavelength with a lot of this stuff (i.e. the Reds need a starting left fielder and a #4 outfielder). I'm not sure we see eye to eye on this, though: I think the Reds are a Milton Bradley away from being a decent team and a Milton Bradley + a Rocco Baldelli away from being a good deam. However, those are two of the biggest question marks in baseball, but if they could both stay healthy for one season and produce near expected, the Reds would instantly be contenders imo.

I think Milton Bradley's a step in the right direction, but I don't see Baldelli making enough impact to make us a good team. Does that mean Bradley, Baldelli, Bruce, and Dickerson's the 4th OF?

dougdirt
12-20-2008, 05:23 PM
Just some very rough numbers here..... To give us an idea of what we are working with using an average of Marcels/Bill James/CHONE projections and my projected playing time:


Player AB AVG OBP SLG RC
Votto 550 .296 .372 .508 104
Phillips 575 .269 .321 .445 82
Encarnacion 525 .277 .356 .476 89
Bruce 575 .281 .340 .504 99
Dickerson 400 .263 .352 .453 64
Hernandez 450 .262 .326 .421 62
Hanigan 200 .268 .349 .382 27

That puts the Reds at 3275 at bats and 526 RC without anything from a shortstop or a left fielder and only partial playing time from CF.

So lets assume the Reds need another 1100 AB's for LF and SS and another 250 for CF. That puts the Reds at a total of 4625 AB's. Here are the different RC for different OBP/SLG lines.



Position AB OBP SLG RC
LF/SS/CF 1350 .320 .400 173
LF/SS/CF 1350 .325 .410 180
LF/SS/CF 1350 .325 .420 184
LF/SS/CF 1350 .330 .425 189
LF/SS/CF 1350 .330 .430 192
LF/SS/CF 1350 .335 .430 194
LF/SS/CF 1350 .335 .440 199


If the Reds were able to must just a .330/.430 (.760 OPS) out of those three remaining spots it would put their overall RC from above + this new math at 718 RC for their 4625 AB's.

The Reds pitchers had 286 at bats with an awful line of .139/.146 for a total of 6 RC.

So now we are standing at 4625 AB's for the positional guys and 286 AB's for the pitchers for a total of 4911 AB's. That leaves about 700 AB's that need to be made up still from last year. Even with some bad production off the bench like seen below, it will still add plenty of RC

Position AB OBP SLG RC
Bench 700 .280 .350 69
Bench 700 .290 .375 76
Bench 700 .300 .400 84
Bench 700 .310 .420 91


So if the bench contributes a .280/.350 OBP/SLG it still adds nearly 70 RC to the already 718 for a total of 790 RC over their 5600 AB's.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:27 PM
Just some very rough numbers here..... To give us an idea of what we are working with using an average of Marcels/Bill James/CHONE projections and my projected playing time:


Player AB AVG OBP SLG RC
Votto 550 .296 .372 .508 104
Phillips 575 .269 .321 .445 82
Encarnacion 525 .277 .356 .476 89
Bruce 575 .281 .340 .504 99
Dickerson 400 .263 .352 .453 64
Hernandez 450 .262 .326 .421 62
Hanigan 200 .268 .349 .382 27

That puts the Reds at 3275 at bats and 526 RC without anything from a shortstop or a left fielder and only partial playing time from CF.

So lets assume the Reds need another 1100 AB's for LF and SS and another 250 for CF. That puts the Reds at a total of 4625 AB's. Here are the different RC for different OBP/SLG lines.



Position AB OBP SLG RC
LF/SS/CF 1350 .320 .400 173
LF/SS/CF 1350 .325 .410 180
LF/SS/CF 1350 .325 .420 184
LF/SS/CF 1350 .330 .425 189
LF/SS/CF 1350 .330 .430 192
LF/SS/CF 1350 .335 .430 194
LF/SS/CF 1350 .335 .440 199


If the Reds were able to must just a .330/.430 (.760 OPS) out of those three remaining spots it would put their overall RC from above + this new math at 718 RC for their 4625 AB's.

The Reds pitchers had 286 at bats with an awful line of .139/.146 for a total of 6 RC.

So now we are standing at 4625 AB's for the positional guys and 286 AB's for the pitchers for a total of 4911 AB's. That leaves about 700 AB's that need to be made up still from last year. Even with some bad production off the bench like seen below, it will still add plenty of RC

Position AB OBP SLG RC
Bench 700 .280 .350 69
Bench 700 .290 .375 76
Bench 700 .300 .400 84
Bench 700 .310 .420 91


So if the bench contributes a .280/.350 OBP/SLG it still adds nearly 70 RC to the already 718 for a total of 790 RC over their 5600 AB's.

So you're telling us that you think the Reds are a 790 RS offense for 2009?

camisadelgolf
12-20-2008, 05:27 PM
I think Milton Bradley's a step in the right direction, but I don't see Baldelli making enough impact to make us a good team. Does that mean Bradley, Baldelli, Bruce, and Dickerson's the 4th OF?

Yeah, that's pretty much what I had in mind. Both Dickerson and Hopper have options if they struggle, and hopefully someone in AAA could do better than Corey Patterson between Cumberland, Dorn, Henry, McDonald, Nix, and/or Stubbs.

Mario-Rijo
12-20-2008, 05:28 PM
Not to be a pain here Doug but do you mean PA's for the above otherwise I have a hard time following?! I have become so focused on PA's that I have a hard time seeing a complete picture w/o the use of them.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:31 PM
Yeah, that's pretty much what I had in mind. Both Dickerson and Hopper have options if they struggle, and hopefully someone in AAA could do better than Corey Patterson between Cumberland, Dorn, Henry, McDonald, Nix, and/or Stubbs.

Keep in mind though, replacing Dunn in LF with Bradley hurts us both offensively and defensively. And while we'll probably get better offense from Baldelli than Dickerson, Dickerson's clearly the better of the 2 defensively.

So, while we are adding to the RS column with Bradley and Baldelli, we're also adding to the RA column (the difference between Baldelli and Dickerson) due to OF D.

So, does the offensive gain between Baldelli and Dickerson trump the defensive loss?

dougdirt
12-20-2008, 05:34 PM
So you're telling us that you think the Reds are a 790 RS offense for 2009?

Well RC isn't an exact number, but I think they could easily score 750-775 next year if they don't make any terrible moves like giving Taveras 650 PA.

dougdirt
12-20-2008, 05:35 PM
Not to be a pain here Doug but do you mean PA's for the above otherwise I have a hard time following?! I have become so focused on PA's that I have a hard time seeing a complete picture w/o the use of them.

No, I am talking AB's.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:36 PM
Well RC isn't an exact number, but I think they could easily score 750-775 next year if they don't make any terrible moves like giving Taveras 650 PA.

The only problem is that the Reds will most likely need to score at least 800 next year to win the Wild Card, given our current pitching woes.

dougdirt
12-20-2008, 05:39 PM
The only problem is that the Reds will most likely need to score at least 800 next year to win the Wild Card, given our current pitching woes.

What pitching woes are you talking about? Bullpen is better than good. Rotation 1-4 is better than good and the options for #5 are very deep with potential and in no way, shape or form should come close to the 7+ ERA the #5 rotation spot produced last year.

OnBaseMachine
12-20-2008, 05:40 PM
The only problem is that the Reds will most likely need to score at least 800 next year to win the Wild Card, given our current pitching woes.

Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo. A lot of teams would love to have that rotation.

mth123
12-20-2008, 05:40 PM
I really think the plan should be to get a middling player to replace the combined numbers of Bruce/Griffey from 2008 (not hard at all) and wait for Bruce to step up and replace Dunn. With improvement at other spots (CF, C, SS and probably even 2B) the offense would be improved. I'm in the camp that thinks it will happen but not until 2010. My hope is that the middling player is somebody that the Reds can shine up with GABP and flip for a better return at the deadline (unless of course Bruce becomes MVP guy sooner than expected and the team contends). I keep thinking about guys like Guillen and Pena becoming Harang and Arroyo and the shine 'em up and ship 'em out plan becomes appealing. Its possible that Frazier and Alonso could both be ready by the end of 2009 and the middling player won't really be needed anyway. The Reds would have Frazier/EdE/Votto/Alonso/Bruce (and maybe Dorn too) for the 4 corner spots. Its why I really don't want the Reds to sell the farm for an OF or a corner player of any kind. I'm all in favor of dealing multiple prospects (Stubbs, Valaika, Thompson, Roenicke, Bailey) in some combination for the right long term answers at SS and C with other spots (pitching or bench help) also coming back as fill ins depending on the deal.

If the team trades its better prospects, I'd prefer long term solutions in return. Stopgaps can be had on the FA market.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:46 PM
Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo. A lot of teams would love to have that rotation.

Ok, that's 4 arms out of 12.

I think highly of 3 of those 4, and I think highly of Burton, Bray and Cordero.

So, that leaves roughly 1/2 the Reds arms that I don't think highly of.


While I agree that our rotation has improved, we need Harang to return to form, Volquez to keep doing what he's doing, Arroyo to not regress to his mean(s) and Cueto to improve. That's a lot of ifs.

And then we need a seamless transition from our SP to Bray to Burton to Cordero.

And since those 3 can't pitch 162 games a year a piece, that means the rest of our pen essentially will have to not suck. I'm not convinced that will or can happen.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:46 PM
What pitching woes are you talking about? Bullpen is better than good. Rotation 1-4 is better than good and the options for #5 are very deep with potential and in no way, shape or form should come close to the 7+ ERA the #5 rotation spot produced last year.

See my reply to OBM's post.

Mario-Rijo
12-20-2008, 06:57 PM
No, I am talking AB's.

So your OBP% #'s are withholding non-hit occurences?

Rojo
12-20-2008, 07:07 PM
Ok, that's 4 arms out of 12.

I think highly of 3 of those 4, and I think highly of Burton, Bray and Cordero.

So, that leaves roughly 1/2 the Reds arms that I don't think highly of.


While I agree that our rotation has improved, we need Harang to return to form, Volquez to keep doing what he's doing, Arroyo to not regress to his mean(s) and Cueto to improve. That's a lot of ifs.

And then we need a seamless transition from our SP to Bray to Burton to Cordero.

And since those 3 can't pitch 162 games a year a piece, that means the rest of our pen essentially will have to not suck. I'm not convinced that will or can happen.

A little context here: most teams don't have even this much.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 07:08 PM
A little context here: most teams don't have even this much.

Then why aren't the Reds a .500 or better team if they have so much pitching?

OnBaseMachine
12-20-2008, 07:40 PM
Then why aren't the Reds a .500 or better team if they have so much pitching?

Because they have the worst defense in baseball? And they got horrible results from their fifth starters (which has been upgraded with Owings replacing Fogg/Belisle). Jocketty has said a couple different times that he's gotten calls from other GM's saying they wish they had the Reds starting pitching.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 07:41 PM
Because they have the worst defense in baseball? And they got horrible results from their fifth starters (which has been upgraded with Owings replacing Fogg/Belisle). Jocketty has said a couple different times that he's gotten calls from other GM's saying they wish they had the Reds starting pitching.

I guess we'll have to wait and see during 2009, b/c as I see it right now, the Reds don't have enough pitching, and they certainly don't have enough offense.

Raisor
12-20-2008, 07:59 PM
Well RC isn't an exact number, but I think they could easily score 750-775 next year if they don't make any terrible moves like giving Taveras 650 PA.

"easily"?

So you think they're going to jump into the top 4-5 NL teams in RS in 09?

dougdirt
12-20-2008, 09:37 PM
"easily"?

So you think they're going to jump into the top 4-5 NL teams in RS in 09?

Half the teams in the NL scored 747 or more runs. I think the Reds could get to that number pretty easily next year if they don't go out and get Willy Taveras to replace Chris Dickerson in CF, or god forbid put him in LF.

SteelSD
12-21-2008, 12:54 AM
Not to be a pain here Doug but do you mean PA's for the above otherwise I have a hard time following?! I have become so focused on PA's that I have a hard time seeing a complete picture w/o the use of them.

That's a very fair question considering that Runs Created can't possibly be calculated without considering the results of all PA. I actually figured it was a typo because RC per AB is a silly notion.

dougdirt
12-21-2008, 04:12 AM
That's a very fair question considering that Runs Created can't possibly be calculated without considering the results of all PA. I actually figured it was a typo because RC per AB is a silly notion.

Just rough estimates but the most simple RC formula is AB*OBP*SLG. Since we are working with absolutely hypotheticals, AB is just fine for guesstimating things.

Ron Madden
12-21-2008, 05:07 AM
:confused:
Just rough estimates but the most simple RC formula is AB*OBP*SLG. Since we are working with absolutely hypotheticals, AB is just fine for guesstimating things.

I can't see why you would want to use any formula that produces false information.

dougdirt
12-21-2008, 05:31 AM
:confused:

I can't see why you would want to use any formula that produces false information.

All RC formulas produce false information because they aren't 100% accurate. Some are slightly more accurate than others, but even the simple ones are very close to accurate.

I mean lets take it on the team level.

Simplistic RC formula of AB*OBP*SLG for the 2008 Reds leads to 716 RC.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/9/8/b/98bc528ce261f60c3efcf6a4a5b3d9c3.png
That formula for the 2008 Reds leads to 726 RC.

The 2008 Reds scored 704 runs.

The difference between the two RC formulas was all of 10 runs. Thats barely over 1% and really on that large of a scale, its pretty insignificant.

GAC
12-21-2008, 06:16 AM
While I agree that our rotation has improved, we need Harang to return to form, Volquez to keep doing what he's doing, Arroyo to not regress to his mean(s) and Cueto to improve. That's a lot of ifs.

A lot of ifs.

This offense scored 704 runs last year, and a majority of that was pre-AS break when we had guys like Dunn and Jr in the lineup. Fell off pretty good after the AS break.

We're talking about replacing the Red's '08 offense? It should be about vastly improving it, not simply trying to match it. Because if not, be thankful the Pirates are in the division to hold down the 5th spot. ;)

Looking at the roster right now, what (hypothetically) is your batting order, and whose who to fill what roles in that order?

I'm not impressed at this stage.

dougdirt
12-21-2008, 06:56 AM
A lot of ifs.

This offense scored 704 runs last year, and a majority of that was pre-AS break when we had guys like Dunn and Jr in the lineup. Fell off pretty good after the AS break.


Reds first 81 games of 2008 - 339 RS and 406 RA
Reds second 81 games of 2008 - 365 RS and 394 RA

So no, the offensive production didn't really fall off in the second half of the year, it actually improved quite a bit.

The Reds scored 194 runs in 43 games post Adam Dunn, for 4.51 RPG. Before the Dunn trade they scored 510 in 119 games, for 4.29 RPG.

While that has little to do with Dunn, the Reds offense was just fine when Dunn wasn't in it and Griffey was merely average offensively in 2008.

kpresidente
12-21-2008, 08:16 AM
Looking at the roster right now, what (hypothetically) is your batting order, and whose who to fill what roles in that order?

I'm not impressed at this stage.

Here's my guesstimate...



Dickerson/Hopper .340/.425
Encarnacion .350/.470
Votto .370/.525
???
Bruce .340/.500
Phillips .320/.460
Hernandez/Hanigan .330/.425
Gonzalez .310/.425

<OR>

Dickerson/Hopper .340/.425
Keppinger .350/.425
Votto .370/.525
????
Bruce .340/.500
Encarnacion .350/.470
Phillips .320/.460
Hernandez/Hanigan .330/.425
.
.
.
.



That doesn't look too bad to me. It about what the Tampa Bay put out there last year. If we get a quality cleanup hitter, we'll be better than the Rays. That's the key to the line-up, which I think has been obvious since Dunn was traded. Of course, the Rays had the 3rd best team-ERA and RA in baseball, and I don't expect us to approach that even in a best-case scenario. But then again, we don't need to win 95 games for me to consider the season successful. I'd be satisfied with 85. Our bullpen is solid at least. It all comes down to how the starters hold up. Is Volquez more like the 1st-half Volquez or the 2nd-half Volquez? What's wrong with Harang? Is the real Owings the '07 Owings or the '08 Owings? That's where the season lies, IMO. That and getting the cleanup hitter.

SteelSD
12-21-2008, 10:16 AM
Just rough estimates but the most simple RC formula is AB*OBP*SLG. Since we are working with absolutely hypotheticals, AB is just fine for guesstimating things.

While the simple formula you're using might be a "ballpark" metric for guesstimating, you can't project positional or slot replacements using only AB. To project, you need to use PA.

As for accuracy, the most complex formula (sans the RISP stats) equals 715.29 RC for the 2008 squad so I don't have much of an issue with the 716 RC you net with the "simple" formula in this case, but only for looking at the past. But for the purpose of attempting to project the future, there's a more accurate published formula out there. Why not use it?


While that has little to do with Dunn, the Reds offense was just fine when Dunn wasn't in it and Griffey was merely average offensively in 2008.

You expect Chris Dickerson to go off for a 1.021 OPS again? If not, then the Reds' offense wasn't "just fine".

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 10:27 AM
Looking at the roster right now, what (hypothetically) is your batting order, and whose who to fill what roles in that order?

I'm not impressed at this stage.

1. Dickerson/?
2. Shortstop (any of them, SS bats 2nd, dude)
3. Respect (At this point, it'll be Ramon Hernandez cuz he's a vet, dude)
4. Phillips, the GIDP machine
5. Votto
6. EE (can't bat 2 lefties back to back)
7. Bruce
8. Nix/Hopper
9. Pitcher

That's a lineup structure I see The Dusty using in 2009. I, however, would do something more like this:

1. Dickerson
2. Bruce
3. EE
4. Votto
5. Phillips
6. Nix/ R. Hernandez
7. R. Hernandez/ Nix
8. Janish
9. Pitcher

GAC
12-21-2008, 01:23 PM
You expect Chris Dickerson to go off for a 1.021 OPS again? If not, then the Reds' offense wasn't "just fine".

I agree. I don't see how anyone can say this offense was just fine when they were in the bottom tier in practically every major offensive category that is of value.

dougdirt
12-21-2008, 02:33 PM
As for accuracy, the most complex formula (sans the RISP stats) equals 715.29 RC for the 2008 squad so I don't have much of an issue with the 716 RC you net with the "simple" formula in this case, but only for looking at the past. But for the purpose of attempting to project the future, there's a more accurate published formula out there. Why not use it? Quite simply, the projections I used don't give the PA (some do).



You expect Chris Dickerson to go off for a 1.021 OPS again? If not, then the Reds' offense wasn't "just fine".
No, but I also don't expect to have CPat giving a .589 OPS over 194 PA or Bako giving the Reds a .552 OPS over 137 PA in the second half of 2009 like they did in 2008. Even with those absolutely terrible second halves by those two players, the Reds scored more runs in games 82-162 than they did in games 1-81.

SteelSD
12-21-2008, 02:38 PM
Quite simply, the projections I used don't give the PA (some do).

Then that's a methodology issue.



No, but I also don't expect to have CPat giving a .589 OPS over 194 PA or Bako giving the Reds a .552 OPS over 137 PA in the second half of 2009 like they did in 2008. Even with those absolutely terrible second halves by those two players, the Reds scored more runs in games 82-162 than they did in games 1-81.

Look deeper.

flyer85
12-21-2008, 02:49 PM
The Reds likely need to net 175 runs over last years team to be a playoff contender. That's a lot of heavy lifting.

dougdirt
12-21-2008, 02:50 PM
Then that's a methodology issue.And yet its still rather accurate.



Look deeper.
I don't know what you mean, but if you are referring to other guys performing over their head (Dickerson/JHJ) then while I agree, how much of some guys going nuts was offset by 340 PA of absolutely terrible baseball by those two guys? Losing them and others reverting to what could be expected is likely to still produce positivity on the offensive side of the ball.

RedsManRick
12-21-2008, 02:51 PM
Here's the full set of post-ASB stats; the Reds post-ASB offense is pretty simple to summarize. Chris Dickerson and Joey Votto hit the snot out of the ball. Patterson, Keppinger, and Phillips were anchors. Everybody else was pretty mediocre, or at least close to expectations. Collectively, the team score 4.36 R/G over the last 66 games of the season, a 706 run pace.

I think you can reasonably say that Dickerson will split the difference between his and Patterson's 2008. My big fear is that Phillips really is Matt Lawton 2.0, Votto has a sophomore slump, and Bruce doesn't make up the difference. You have to assume an awful lot of good things to make this offense look even average in 2009.

Assuming sustained production from Votto, a rebound from Phillips, and a big step forward from Bruce is setting us up for failure. Sure, we're ditching the horrible OPS of CPatt and Keppinger should bounce back. But there will be a 2009 version of those events and we shouldn't wishcast as if there won't.



NAME AB 2B 3B HR BB BA OBP SLG OPS
Jay Bruce 250 9 1 15 18 .244 .300 .468 .768
J. Keppinger 245 15 1 0 11 .241 .272 .310 .582
Joey Votto 218 14 3 11 26 .321 .394 .564 .959
E. Encarnacion 209 10 0 11 28 .239 .339 .445 .784
B. Phillips 187 6 2 6 15 .225 .291 .374 .666
C. Patterson 167 8 1 4 8 .222 .253 .353 .606
C. Dickerson 102 9 2 6 17 .304 .413 .608 1.021
J. Cabrera 97 5 1 3 6 .227 .283 .392 .675
Paul Bako 96 5 0 0 11 .219 .303 .271 .574
Ryan Hanigan 85 2 0 2 10 .271 .367 .365 .732
Adam Dunn† 83 2 0 6 11 .253 .344 .494 .838
J. Hairston Jr. 73 3 0 4 9 .260 .349 .466 .815
J. Valentin 59 2 0 4 9 .288 .382 .525 .908
Andy Phillips† 45 1 0 3 4 .289 .360 .511 .871
K. Griffey Jr.† 44 4 1 3 6 .318 .412 .659 1.071
Danny Richar† 36 2 0 0 0 .222 .222 .278 .500
W. Castillo† 32 1 0 0 1 .281 .303 .313 .616
David Ross† 31 2 0 0 11 .129 .357 .194 .551
Adam Rosales 29 1 0 0 1 .207 .233 .241 .475
Paul Janish 16 1 0 1 1 .188 .235 .438 .673

flyer85
12-21-2008, 02:54 PM
this team is going be to OBP challenged to score a lot of runs. The pitching had better be stellar.

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 07:43 PM
The Reds likely need to net 175 runs over last years team to be a playoff contender. That's a lot of heavy lifting.

Certainly won't get that from 1 player.

Probably won't get that from 2 players, either. Or at least 2 players that would actually play for the Reds, that the Reds can afford...

GAC
12-22-2008, 06:02 AM
The Reds likely need to net 175 runs over last years team to be a playoff contender. That's a lot of bunting.

Fixed that for ya. :p:

It 's pretty obvious that this team did "improve" itself via subtraction of guys like CPatt and Bako. But you're still looking at a team, going into the '09 season, that is going to have huge problems creating runs IMO.

You're looking at an '08 squad that was OB-challenged last year.... Pre-AS ... .325 (17th). Post-AS ... .315 (28th)

Total Bases - Pre-AS..... 1311 (17th). Post-AS.... 918 (26th)

So other then the subtraction of bad players, there has to be some addition.

It's going to be interesting.

dougdirt
12-22-2008, 01:11 PM
Pre all star and post all star counting numbers mean very little since we played a lot more games pre all star break.

flyer85
12-22-2008, 01:18 PM
Pre all star and post all star counting numbers mean very little since we played a lot more games pre all star break.but the rankings convey a lot(17 to 26). The Reds were 13th in the NL in RS in 2008, are seriously OBP challenged and other than subtraction have done little to address the problem. They are seriously behind the 8 ball in trying to put a winner on the field in 2009 unless the pitching takes a big step forward.

dougdirt
12-22-2008, 01:23 PM
but the rankings convey a lot(17 to 26). The Reds were 13th in the NL in RS in 2008, are seriously OBP challenged and other than subtraction have done little to address the problem. They are seriously behind the 8 ball in trying to put a winner on the field in 2009 unless the pitching takes a big step forward.

Subtracting two of the ten worst regulars in baseball from your starting 8 is a fairly big step in the right direction. If they can add another strong bat, say in the .825 or better OPS range (say .350/.475) I think they will be a middle of the road 740 run offense.

GAC
12-23-2008, 09:09 AM
but the rankings convey a lot(17 to 26). The Reds were 13th in the NL in RS in 2008, are seriously OBP challenged and other than subtraction have done little to address the problem. They are seriously behind the 8 ball in trying to put a winner on the field in 2009 unless the pitching takes a big step forward.

BINGO!