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View Full Version : I need some help with 2009.....I propose a plan.



red-in-la
12-20-2008, 03:03 PM
OK stats guys, this is a feeling I have about 2009 that I have been forming for a month now. I could use some help seeing if the numbers hold up.

I now believe the Reds a re two players away......just two. I know there will be those who trash this idea out-of-hand just based on the posts i have been reading......but I hope this idea (feeling) has enough merit to try some of those OPS+ and VORP thingys on it.

I also admit that the Reds are not even likely to execute this idea, but I can hope that Walt reads Redszone enough to be inspired.

Step one (player 1): Break the bank and sign another established starting pitcher. I have said all along that the rotation is one Derrick Lowe or even a Ben Sheets away from making the Reds competitive. You need to secure this step BEFORE the second step is necessary or useful.

Step two (player two): trade whatever it takes from the minors or even from any extra pieces at the majors to get Jermaine Dye. Stick him in LF and bat him 4th between Votto and Bruce.

I think this gives the Reds the offense, and thepitching they need to compete. Maybe a second or third place finish. If they get 3-4 career years then I think they could be playing in October.

I know this might be just going over the same ground, but it is Saturday, my wife and son are out shopping and I am down to watching the New Mexico Bowl......help!

kaldaniels
12-20-2008, 03:19 PM
OK stats guys, this is a feeling I have about 2009 that I have been forming for a month now. I could use some help seeing if the numbers hold up.

I now believe the Reds a re two players away......just two. I know there will be those who trash this idea out-of-hand just based on the posts i have been reading......but I hope this idea (feeling) has enough merit to try some of those OPS+ and VORP thingys on it.

I also admit that the Reds are not even likely to execute this idea, but I can hope that Walt reads Redszone enough to be inspired.

Step one (player 1): Break the bank and sign another established starting pitcher. I have said all along that the rotation is one Derrick Lowe or even a Ben Sheets away from making the Reds competitive. You need to secure this step BEFORE the second step is necessary or useful.

Step two (player two): trade whatever it takes from the minors or even from any extra pieces at the majors to get Jermaine Dye. Stick him in LF and bat him 4th between Votto and Bruce.

I think this gives the Reds the offense, and thepitching they need to compete. Maybe a second or third place finish. If they get 3-4 career years then I think they could be playing in October.

I know this might be just going over the same ground, but it is Saturday, my wife and son are out shopping and I am down to watching the New Mexico Bowl......help!

I'm with you...it is that easy if you ask me. I've been beating the drum that right now, it is finally possible to solidify the pitching staff 1-5. Going into 2009 with a black hole of uncertaintly at the #5 spot is asking for disaster. Lowe would be my target...Sheets is too unreliable...did I read somewhere he's never won over 13 games in a year...wow.

Regardless...get the pitchers 1-5 taken care of, throw in Dye as icing on the cake...and you have a very competitive ballclub.

Heath
12-20-2008, 03:20 PM
OK stats guys, this is a feeling I have about 2009 that I have been forming for a month now. I could use some help seeing if the numbers hold up.

I now believe the Reds a re two players away......just two. I know there will be those who trash this idea out-of-hand just based on the posts i have been reading......but I hope this idea (feeling) has enough merit to try some of those OPS+ and VORP thingys on it.

I also admit that the Reds are not even likely to execute this idea, but I can hope that Walt reads Redszone enough to be inspired.

Step one (player 1): Break the bank and sign another established starting pitcher. I have said all along that the rotation is one Derrick Lowe or even a Ben Sheets away from making the Reds competitive. You need to secure this step BEFORE the second step is necessary or useful.

Step two (player two): trade whatever it takes from the minors or even from any extra pieces at the majors to get Jermaine Dye. Stick him in LF and bat him 4th between Votto and Bruce.

I think this gives the Reds the offense, and thepitching they need to compete. Maybe a second or third place finish. If they get 3-4 career years then I think they could be playing in October.

I know this might be just going over the same ground, but it is Saturday, my wife and son are out shopping and I am down to watching the New Mexico Bowl......help!

Dude, it's football season. It's ok.

Mario-Rijo
12-20-2008, 04:07 PM
Maybe I buy 2 players away if one is a SS. I just don't believe the Rotation has to have 5 legitimate starters. Look around at everyone in the NL find me 4 legit starters and someone better than Jason Marquis (Marquis = less than legit) as a 5th. If you don't believe the 4 we have are legit well that's your opinion but not 1 that I happen to share. I am not opposed to adding another arm but I don't feel it's necc. to contend. A better option at SS and one who can hit at the top of the lineup however is another issue all together, one that needs attention. Besides breaking the bank for Derrick Lowe is going to require many dollars beyond '09 of which I am opposed for the most part.

red-in-la
12-20-2008, 04:20 PM
Maybe I buy 2 players away if one is a SS. I just don't believe the Rotation has to have 5 legitimate starters. Look around at everyone in the NL find me 4 legit starters and someone better than Jason Marquis (Marquis = less than legit) as a 5th. If you don't believe the 4 we have are legit well that's your opinion but not 1 that I happen to share. I am not opposed to adding another arm but I don't feel it's necc. to contend. A better option at SS and one who can hit at the top of the lineup however is another issue all together, one that needs attention. Besides breaking the bank for Derrick Lowe is going to require many dollars beyond '09 of which I am opposed for the most part.

I agree that 4 starters is probably enough, but look at what the Braves went through last year when they had only 4. You need some depth because odds are that one of the current 4 will falter at least for part of the season.

If you have Dye, SS can be handled by a glove and hit 8th.

kaldaniels
12-20-2008, 04:23 PM
Maybe I buy 2 players away if one is a SS. I just don't believe the Rotation has to have 5 legitimate starters. Look around at everyone in the NL find me 4 legit starters and someone better than Jason Marquis (Marquis = less than legit) as a 5th. If you don't believe the 4 we have are legit well that's your opinion but not 1 that I happen to share. I am not opposed to adding another arm but I don't feel it's necc. to contend. A better option at SS and one who can hit at the top of the lineup however is another issue all together, one that needs attention. Besides breaking the bank for Derrick Lowe is going to require many dollars beyond '09 of which I am opposed for the most part.

I'm sold on the 4 we had. No question. However, a stat I'd like to know, is what was the ERA of all Reds starters other than the top 4 guys this past year, and compare that around the league to other teams #5 spot. Who knows what it will show, but I can't imagine the Reds will stack up well. I don't need a Lowe...but if he were signed (yeah I know...miniscule chance) I'd sleep easier...he's been one of the most consistent and durable pitchers the past few years.

Always Red
12-20-2008, 10:46 PM
Dude, it's football season. It's ok.

It's LATE in the football seaon - you're ok.

kpresidente
12-21-2008, 07:34 AM
Maybe I buy 2 players away if one is a SS. I just don't believe the Rotation has to have 5 legitimate starters. Look around at everyone in the NL find me 4 legit starters and someone better than Jason Marquis (Marquis = less than legit) as a 5th. If you don't believe the 4 we have are legit well that's your opinion but not 1 that I happen to share. I am not opposed to adding another arm but I don't feel it's necc. to contend. A better option at SS and one who can hit at the top of the lineup however is another issue all together, one that needs attention. Besides breaking the bank for Derrick Lowe is going to require many dollars beyond '09 of which I am opposed for the most part.

The comprimise here is to target a starter but replace Dye with Beltre. That way you're improving the left-side of the defense just as much as with a SS, adding a RH bat (who's #'s should make significant jump coming from Seattle to GABP), and solidifying the rotation all with two players.

WebScorpion
12-22-2008, 11:37 AM
That plan looks good to me as long as you play Janish at SS and Dickerson and/or Stubbs in CF. Basically, you are going to need super solid defense up the middle and hope that the Bruce-Dye-Votto part of the lineup can eke out enough runs to win every day. If you play a defensively diminished Gonzalez or Keppinger at SS, or Bruce in center, the defense will lose too many games again. So, I think it's a good partial plan, but you need to flesh out a complete plan. :thumbup:

Mario-Rijo
12-22-2008, 01:01 PM
The comprimise here is to target a starter but replace Dye with Beltre. That way you're improving the left-side of the defense just as much as with a SS, adding a RH bat (who's #'s should make significant jump coming from Seattle to GABP), and solidifying the rotation all with two players.

That's a better solution, but it still doesn't address a big problem we are all ignoring. OBP% in the #1 and #2 holes. The middle of the order has little to nothing to drive in. Dickerson I am ok with in CF and manning the #1 or #2 hole for now. But that still leaves the other one blank and likely to be filled by 1 of 3 players all of which play SS/2B Keppinger/Gonzo/BP. I don't really see Dusty putting anyone else in those spots other than the above listed, that's currently on the roster. Here's what I currently see happening.

#1 Dickerson CF
#2 Keppinger SS
Bad defense at SS

#1 Dickerson CF
#2 Gonzo SS
Bad OBP% at #2

#1 Dickerson CF
#2 Phillips 2B
Bad OBP% at #2

#1 Dickerson CF
#2 Hairston SS
Best case scenario but still the defense isn't ideal

#1 Taveras CF
#2 Hairston/Kepp SS
I think this is what they are aiming for unfortunately.

#1 Taveras or Hairston CF
#2 Kepp/Hairston/BP

None of which is real encouraging.

#1 Dickerson/Hairston CF
#2 Izturis/Cabrera SS
Is a much better solution although not necc. ideal yet either. But probably as close to ideal as we can currently get.

princeton
12-22-2008, 01:36 PM
Johannes Wagner and Babe Ruth would do the trick. That's two.

although, the Babe's lefty swing is hardly optimal ;)

fearofpopvol1
12-22-2008, 02:01 PM
A legitimate SS is much more needed than another SP.

Kc61
12-22-2008, 02:49 PM
Step one (player 1): Break the bank and sign another established starting pitcher. I have said all along that the rotation is one Derrick Lowe or even a Ben Sheets away from making the Reds competitive. You need to secure this step BEFORE the second step is necessary or useful.

Step two (player two): trade whatever it takes from the minors or even from any extra pieces at the majors to get Jermaine Dye. Stick him in LF and bat him 4th between Votto and Bruce.


I know this might be just going over the same ground, but it is Saturday, my wife and son are out shopping and I am down to watching the New Mexico Bowl......help!


I have always advocated your position. I do think that, as a third proposition, the left side of the infield defense would need some improvement somehow, even if using Janish more was the answer. But I do not agree that starting pitching is well taken care of for next season.

The Reds top four starters last year had a 4.38 ERA among them in an average of 188 plus innings. If that were the starting ERA for all the team's starters last year, it would tie them for 9th best in the NL.

So -- using the top four starters only -- Harang, Volquez, Cueto and Arroyo -- the team's ERA matched up with the NL's ninth best starting pitching staff.

Now, if you give the Reds some credit for the tough ballpark, then perhaps the four top starters would be better than the 8th and 9th teams' starters -- SF and SD -- who play in pitchers' parks. Ok. Let's assume that the Reds four starters would put them around 7th place in the league.

That's pretty good. But it cannot be maintained with a fifth starter with a 6 or 7 ERA. It cannot even be maintained with a fifth starter with an ERA well above five.

The Reds need a fifth starter with an ERA in the high fours, at worst about 5.00. At worst.

And -- assuming no drastic changes in overall performance next year -- that good fifth starter gives the Reds about an average NL starting staff, maybe a tad better. Not an outstanding staff.

Yes, guys can improve, but just like Harang had a bad year in 2008, one of the big four could easily have a bad year in 2009. Real world, this team needs another very good starter to have a very good starting staff.

Maybe Micah Owings can be that other starter. I hope so, don't know much about him. But IMO, the idea that "fifth starters all stink, it doesn't really matter" is nonsense.

Maybe if you have a top pitching staff, sub-4.00 guys, then maybe doesn't matter that much. For the Reds, it matters.

So I agree that a big bat and a good starter would be the best way to improve the team most effectively in two simple moves. And the left side of the infield must perform better, particularly if they add a ground ball type pitcher. Yes.

Mario-Rijo
12-22-2008, 03:25 PM
I have always advocated your position. I think you are right on. I do think that, as a third proposition, the left side of the infield defense would need some improvement somehow, even if using Janish more was the answer.

The Reds top four starters last year had a 4.38 ERA among them in an average of 188.5 innings. If that were the starting ERA for all the team's starters last year, it would put them 9th in the NL.

So -- using the top four starters only -- Harang, Volquez, Cueto and Arroyo -- the team's ERA matched up with the NL's ninth best starting pitching staff.

Now, if you give the Reds some credit for the tough ballpark, then perhaps the four top starters would be better than the 8th and 9th teams' starters -- SF and SD -- who play in pitchers' parks. Ok. Let's assume that the Reds four starters would put them in 7th place in the league.

That's pretty good. But it cannot be maintained with a fifth starter with a 6 or 7 ERA. It cannot even be maintained with a fifth starter with an ERA well above five.

The Reds need a fifth starter with an ERA in the high fours, at worst about 5.00. At worst.

And -- assuming no drastic changes in overall performance next year -- that good fifth starter gives the Reds about an average NL starting staff, maybe a tad better. Not an outstanding staff.

Yes, guys can improve. But in the real world, this team needs another very good starter to have a very good starting staff.

Maybe Micah Owings can be that other starter. I hope so, don't know much about him. But IMO, the idea of "fifth starters all stink, it doesn't really matter" is nonsense.

Maybe if you have a top pitching staff, sub-4.00 guys, then maybe doesn't matter that much. For the Reds, it matters.

So I agree that a big bat and a good starter would be the best way to improve the team. Yes.

Not bad that if we get a guy with a 5.00 ERA we are average considering that's w/o a Harang bounceback or improvement from Cueto. I think Arroyo is what he ALWAYS is despite the constant arguing to the contrary. I think Volquez could very well drop back a bit but no moreso than Cueto's likely advancement. So really I see spots 2,3 & 4 as about the same as last year. Everything rests on Harang and despite the fear of gloom Harang lowered his ERA nearly a full run over his last 8 starts of the season. He still wasn't what we expect Harang to be but he's still a very good pitcher and one I expect to top 200 ip with no worse than a 4.00 era.

What I expect to see.
Harang - 3.80 - 4.00 ERA, 210 IP, 190 K's, 60 BB's, 190 Hits, 27 HR's
Arroyo - 4.25 - 4.50 ERA, 200 IP, 150 K's, 65 BB's, 210 Hits, 30 HR's
Volquez - 3.50 - 3.75 ERA, 190 IP, 200 K's, 75 BB's, 170 Hits, 18 HR's
Cueto - 4.00 - 4.25 ERA, 180 IP, 170 K's, 70 BB's, 160 Hits, 23 HR's

Not exact but something along those lines.

Kc61
12-22-2008, 04:28 PM
What I expect to see.
Harang - 3.80 - 4.00 ERA, 210 IP, 190 K's, 60 BB's, 190 Hits, 27 HR's
Arroyo - 4.25 - 4.50 ERA, 200 IP, 150 K's, 65 BB's, 210 Hits, 30 HR's
Volquez - 3.50 - 3.75 ERA, 190 IP, 200 K's, 75 BB's, 170 Hits, 18 HR's
Cueto - 4.00 - 4.25 ERA, 180 IP, 170 K's, 70 BB's, 160 Hits, 23 HR's

Not exact but something along those lines.

I could project a far worse outcome for these four pitchers. For one thing, they allowed a ton of homers last season. Among the four they allowed 107 homers -- that was more than the full starting rotations of 7 NL teams (including fifth starters). That trend does not bode well, but again they could improve.

The main point, though, is that the Reds have to decide if they want to have "bad pitching" (presumably not), "fair pitching"(like last year), "passable or decent pitching," or "good pitching."

If things break right, with the current staff, they could have "passable or decent pitching".

If they add another very good starter, they could actually have "good pitching," which might even start a trend toward winning.

red-in-la
12-22-2008, 05:11 PM
I could project a far worse outcome for these four pitchers. For one thing, they allowed a ton of homers last season. Among the four they allowed 107 homers -- that was more than the full starting rotations of 7 NL teams (including fifth starters). That trend does not bode well, but again they could improve.

The main point, though, is that the Reds have to decide if they want to have "bad pitching" (presumably not), "fair pitching"(like last year), "passable or decent pitching," or "good pitching."

If things break right, with the current staff, they could have "passable or decent pitching".

If they add another very good starter, they could actually have "good pitching," which might even start a trend toward winning.

Exactly!!!! And it might make a fan think they really wanted to win sometime in the 21st century.

Redhook
12-22-2008, 06:10 PM
might even start a trend toward winning.

Winning? Winning? In Cincinnati? Isn't that against the philosophy of the franchises here?

Seriously, though. I'm with you. Add one very good pitcher to this staff then you really have something. You'd be talking about a staff that could match up against most in the majors.

Then, trade for Beltre/Dye, sign Hairston, and another bench bat and you have a baseball team. I'd still like a young SS, but beggers can't be choosers can they?