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edabbs44
12-20-2008, 04:21 PM
But their first choice is Milton bradley. From MLB Trade Rumors:


According to David Kaplan of WGN Radio and Comcast SportsNet, Adam Dunn's first choice is to play for the Cubs. He's not looking for a huge deal, but a fair one. The concern, of course, would be having Dunn play right field on a regular basis.

A source familiar with the team's thinking told MLBTR the Cubs have "exchanged pleasantries" with Dunn's agents, nothing more. It's been suggested that Milton Bradley is the Cubs' first choice.


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 04:33 PM
Sweet, the Cubs can sign Adam Dunn so we can sign Milton Bradley.

westofyou
12-20-2008, 04:36 PM
Dunn in right, Soriano in left and a tired guy in CF.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 04:37 PM
Dunn in right, Soriano in left and a tired guy in CF.

I thought Soriano was playing CF for the Cubs?

OnBaseMachine
12-20-2008, 04:38 PM
Dunn in right field would be brutal.

flyer85
12-20-2008, 04:49 PM
Dunn in right, Soriano in left and a tired guy in CF.wrigley is just a small OF, other than at the lines. That had Moises play RF for a few seasons after he could no longer run. Wrigley is the perfect offensive park for Dunn. He would hits popups that would go out between the alleys

RedEye
12-20-2008, 05:06 PM
If I were choosing a place to play and didn't have any loyalty to the Reds, I have to say the possibility of playing ball at Wrigley for half my games would be a great draw. Can't say I blame Dunn one bit.

Raisor
12-20-2008, 05:07 PM
267 career PA's in Wrigley

.286/.419/.664 23 HR

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:19 PM
267 career PA's in Wrigley

.286/.419/.664 23 HR

Let's assume Dunn averages 600 PA a year.

Let's assume 1/2 of those 600 PA will happen at Wrigley. Which means he'll hit probably 26 HR at home, which means to continue his 40 HR streak he'll only need 14 on the road.

Yeah, I think he'll do that.

Great signing by the Cubs if it happens.

camisadelgolf
12-20-2008, 05:30 PM
It's true that Dunn performs well at Wrigley, but that's probably due to the fact that the Reds rarely have runners in scoring position when they face the Cubs.
:ughmamoru

Raisor
12-20-2008, 05:30 PM
Cubs RFs, in 08, created 87 runs in 700 PA's.

Dunn, for his career creates about 17 runs per 100 PA's.

Dunn gets 650 PA's, that's 110 runs. Add in 50 PA's based on what the Cubs RF did last year and you add 7 runs.

117 runs (+30)

Cubs add Dunn to that offense and the rest of the NL central might as well stay home.

Hopefully Dunn signs with Seattle or somebody. :(

kaldaniels
12-20-2008, 05:40 PM
Let's assume Dunn averages 600 PA a year.

Let's assume 1/2 of those 600 PA will happen at Wrigley. Which means he'll hit probably 26 HR at home, which means to continue his 40 HR streak he'll only need 14 on the road.

Yeah, I think he'll do that.

Great signing by the Cubs if it happens.

Are his 267 career AB statistically significant enough to be sure of or prove his Wrigley sucess...I can't imagine that they are. He has looked good there, thats for sure...but it could be a chance occurence if you ask me.

Raisor
12-20-2008, 05:44 PM
Are his 267 career AB statistically significant enough to be sure of or prove his Wrigley sucess...I can't imagine that they are. He has looked good there, thats for sure...but it could be a chance occurence if you ask me.

Which is why, when I figured out my prediction for how he'd improve the Cubs RF numbers, I used his career numbers.

fearofpopvol1
12-20-2008, 05:50 PM
Wow. I think he would later regret it. If he thinks Cincy fans were hard on him for Ks, he ain't seen nothing. The Wrigley crowd would boo him. A lot.

kaldaniels
12-20-2008, 05:51 PM
Which is why, when I figured out my prediction for how he'd improve the Cubs RF numbers, I used his career numbers.

I wasn't referring to your numbers, I was referring to the post that did bring his Wrigley numbers into the equation.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:54 PM
Wow. I think he would later regret it. If he thinks Cincy fans were hard on him for Ks, he ain't seen nothing. The Wrigley crowd would boo him. A lot.

But there's plenty of other targets to boo in Chicago.

When Dunn was in Cincy, it was pretty much him or Junior for the fans to boo.

He wouldn't have to be the man in Chicago, he could blend into the background and continue to "do what he do"

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 05:58 PM
Are his 267 career AB statistically significant enough to be sure of or prove his Wrigley sucess...I can't imagine that they are. He has looked good there, thats for sure...but it could be a chance occurence if you ask me.

I just talked about his HR numbers, based on the fact he'd be playing in Wrigley for 81 games a year.

I looked at his career numbers to confirm that he'd rake @ Wrigley.

kaldaniels
12-20-2008, 06:01 PM
I just talked about his HR numbers, based on the fact he'd be playing in Wrigley for 81 games a year.

I looked at his career numbers to confirm that he'd rake @ Wrigley.

True, but from a statisically significant point of view, are his 267 career AB's at Wrigley enough to project/confirm 26 homeruns a year at Wrigley?, thats all.

Raisor
12-20-2008, 06:02 PM
I wasn't referring to your numbers, I was referring to the post that did bring his Wrigley numbers into the equation.

Well, he's essentially got an entire "home" season worth of PA's at Wrigley. Is one season enough to start making judgements? Probably.

Do I feel good about predicting ANYONE OPSing 1090 over any stretch of time, not unless his name is Pujols or Bonds.

Do I feel good predicting that Dunn would probably OPS somewhere between 900-1000 at Wrigley, heck yeah.

Raisor
12-20-2008, 06:04 PM
True, but from a statisically significant point of view, are his 267 career AB's at Wrigley enough to project/confirm 26 homeruns a year at Wrigley?, thats all.

not to pick nits, but it's 267 PA's, not AB's.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 06:04 PM
True, but from a statisically significant point of view, are his 267 career AB's at Wrigley enough to project/confirm 26 homeruns a year at Wrigley?, thats all.

267 is almost a season's worth of home PA, so if I projected what he's done in 267 to the 300 level, then I feel within the whole 95% confidence interval that he'd hit between 24 and 28 HR at Wrigley, so I split the difference and said 26.

dougdirt
12-20-2008, 06:05 PM
Well, he's essentially got an entire "home" season worth of PA's at Wrigley. Is one season enough to start making judgements? Probably.

Do I feel good about predicting ANYONE OPSing 1090 over any stretch of time, not unless his name is Pujols or Bonds.

Do I feel good predicting that Dunn would probably OPS somewhere between 900-1000 at Wrigley, heck yeah.

Of course Dunn's "home season" is spread out over 8 years, so it isn't quite a good set of numbers. Still, his 8 seasons in the majors are and they project well no matter what park he plays in.

kaldaniels
12-20-2008, 06:07 PM
267 is almost a season's worth of home PA, so if I projected what he's done in 267 to the 300 level, then I feel within the whole 95% confidence interval that he'd hit between 24 and 28 HR at Wrigley, so I split the difference and said 26.

Is what you are saying accurate...does 267 PA at Wrigley over an 8 year career give you the 95 percent confidence interval of 24-28 homeruns???

kaldaniels
12-20-2008, 06:09 PM
And don't get me wrong for questioning the statistics here...of course Dunn will play well wherever he goes...but the guy is amazing consistent over a 162 game span. If we were betting, I'd bet right on 40 home runs no matter where he plays, I'd have to think thats where the safe money is. And the reason I asked is that I don't know the true statistics of the matter, just looking for an answer from someone who did.

fearofpopvol1
12-20-2008, 06:10 PM
But there's plenty of other targets to boo in Chicago.

When Dunn was in Cincy, it was pretty much him or Junior for the fans to boo.

He wouldn't have to be the man in Chicago, he could blend into the background and continue to "do what he do"

He would probably receive less attention than Soriano, but I think he would hear it.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 06:10 PM
Is what you are saying accurate...does 267 PA at Wrigley over an 8 year career give you the 95 percent confidence interval of 24-28 homeruns???

The way I figured it, 8 years is mutually exclusive.

BCubb2003
12-20-2008, 06:11 PM
I thought the thinking was that you get a blaster like Dunn for big ballparks (or speedy guys who can cover ground), but you get guys with warning track power for small ballparks where their warning track outs can leave the park. If Dunn makes contact, the ball is going to go no matter what ballpark he's in.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 06:12 PM
He would probably receive less attention than Soriano, but I think he would hear it.

Soriano
Fukudome
Ramirez
Lee


There's some position players that would share the attention with Dunn.

Raisor
12-20-2008, 06:14 PM
Dunn OPS at Wrigley per season

01-1716
02-881
03-971
04-1166
05-1117
06-1043
07-925
08-1137

Now each individual season IS a small sample size, no doubt, but they show that those 267 PA's aren't from 50 PA's of monster production vs 200 pretty good.

He's been amazing in Wrigley for his entire career.

Hope he signs someplace else.

edabbs44
12-20-2008, 06:22 PM
He's been amazing in Wrigley for his entire career.

He's been amazing at Wrigley versus Cubs pitching. He has historically wrecked Zambrano and Lieber.

It remains to be seen how he does versus non-Cubs pitching at Wrigley.

kaldaniels
12-20-2008, 06:25 PM
He's been amazing at Wrigley versus Cubs pitching. He has historically wrecked Zambrano and Lieber.

It remains to be seen how he does versus non-Cubs pitching at Wrigley.

That's the question...based on some of the posts above if Dunn played a 162 game season all at Wrigley he'd project to hit 52 home runs. I'd take the under on that one is all I am saying.

HokieRed
12-20-2008, 06:27 PM
The Cubs would be crazy not to sign Dunn if they can. With the numbers he'd put up there, nobody would care about the balls he didn't get to. Dunn to Chicago, we trade Votto--our best player at the moment--on some ridiculous idea we can compete in 2009--typical Cincinnati mismanagement, tremendous shift in the division for years to come. So bad I'm pretty sure it's bound to happen.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 06:28 PM
That's the question...based on some of the posts above if Dunn played a 162 game season all at Wrigley he'd project to hit 52 home runs. I'd take the under on that one is all I am saying.

If Dunn played 162 games a year in Wrigley, I'd definitely take that he'd hit over 50 HR per year.

fearofpopvol1
12-20-2008, 06:32 PM
Soriano
Fukudome
Ramirez
Lee


There's some position players that would share the attention with Dunn.

Yes, but Ramirez and Fukodome don't strike out nearly as much. Lee strikes out a decent amount, but still not as much as Dunn. And all of them (save for maybe Ramirez) play MUCH better defense (another thing Dunn will get booed for--especially in RF).

Raisor
12-20-2008, 06:38 PM
Yes, but Ramirez and Fukodome don't strike out nearly as much. Lee strikes out a decent amount, but still not as much as Dunn. And all of them (save for maybe Ramirez) play MUCH better defense (another thing Dunn will get booed for--especially in RF).

Do you honestly believe Cub fan will care about K's if they're winning?


When a team is winning, no one cares about strikeouts.

Highlifeman21
12-20-2008, 06:42 PM
Do you honestly believe Cub fan will care about K's if they're winning?


When a team is winning, no one cares about strikeouts.

It's a Cincinnati thing I guess.

Some fans just care about trivial things, like strikeouts.

Joseph
12-20-2008, 06:47 PM
Wow. I think he would later regret it. If he thinks Cincy fans were hard on him for Ks, he ain't seen nothing. The Wrigley crowd would boo him. A lot.

Did he complain that the fans booed him too much here? I don't recall it. Naturally it doesn't mean it didn't happen though.

westofyou
12-20-2008, 07:01 PM
wrigley is just a small OF, other than at the lines. That had Moises play RF for a few seasons after he could no longer run. Wrigley is the perfect offensive park for Dunn. He would hits popups that would go out between the alleys

What about the games not in Wrigley?

Do they matter?

westofyou
12-20-2008, 07:02 PM
Yes, but Ramirez and Fukodome don't strike out nearly as much. Lee strikes out a decent amount, but still not as much as Dunn. And all of them (save for maybe Ramirez) play MUCH better defense (another thing Dunn will get booed for--especially in RF).

That Sammy Sosa, he never struck out... they ate him up.

OnBaseMachine
12-20-2008, 07:02 PM
What about the games not in Wrigley?

Do they matter?

Exactly. Dunner is RF would be disastrous.

AtomicDumpling
12-20-2008, 07:03 PM
If Dunn played for the Cubs he would finally have some protection in the lineup. Just imagine if he had Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez batting after him. He would be "pitched around" less often and see better pitches to hit.

He would probably also have a lot more RBI opportunities and would be more likely to be driven in after all his walks. I think Dunn would flourish in Chicago even more than he did here in Cincy.

westofyou
12-20-2008, 07:04 PM
He would probably also have a lot more RBI opportunities and would be more likely to be driven in after all his walks. I think Dunn would flourish in Chicago even more than he did here in Cincy.

He'd be the second coming of Hank Sauer

edabbs44
12-20-2008, 07:06 PM
That's the question...based on some of the posts above if Dunn played a 162 game season all at Wrigley he'd project to hit 52 home runs. I'd take the under on that one is all I am saying.

He'd project to hit .286 as well.

He'd also be projected to walk on Lake Michigan during the all-star break...that is, if he were to play half his games in Wrigley.

fearofpopvol1
12-20-2008, 07:34 PM
Do you honestly believe Cub fan will care about K's if they're winning?


When a team is winning, no one cares about strikeouts.

They're not going to win 162 games. There will be ups and downs and I do think the Cubs of 2009 will not outperform the Cubs of 2008 unless some big moves are made. He will be booed.


Did he complain that the fans booed him too much here? I don't recall it. Naturally it doesn't mean it didn't happen though.

I don't know that "complain" would be the right word, but he's made mention of it publicly before. I seriously doubt he liked being booed and he was booed in Cincy.


That Sammy Sosa, he never struck out... they ate him up.

Apples to oranges honestly. Sosa did hit for a better average and he also played in Chicago during a time when the Cubs fanbase was a bit more tame.

Ltlabner
12-20-2008, 07:34 PM
Sorriano, Lee, Rameirz, Dunn and Soto in the same lineup?

Amazing how good a team can get by solidly improving it over the course of several years.

VR
12-20-2008, 07:49 PM
think they can get him for 8/160?

edabbs44
12-20-2008, 08:21 PM
Sorriano, Lee, Rameirz, Dunn and Soto in the same lineup?

Amazing how good a team can get by solidly improving it over the course of several years.

Amazing how wrong you can be on both the success of the Cubs and what my philosophy is on what Cincinnati should be doing.

Ltlabner
12-20-2008, 08:48 PM
Amazing how wrong you can be on both the success of the Cubs and what my philosophy is on what Cincinnati should be doing.

Thats spiffy.

Wasn't talking to you or about you.

Pssssst. The Cubs made the playoffs. That's sorta "successful" (as much as it pains me to type that)

Ltlabner
12-20-2008, 09:02 PM
NAME AGE PA EqA OBP SLG OUTR VORP RAR RAP
Aramis Ramirez 30 645 .297 .380 .518 0.6124 45.4 45.9 20.4
Geovany Soto 25 563 .288 .364 .504 0.6270 39.9 34.3 22.2
Mark Derosa 33 593 .291 .376 .481 0.61383 36.2 37.5 14.9
Alfonso Soriano 30 503 .289 .344 .532 0.64612 33.0 32.6 8.6
Derrek Lee 32 698 .279 .361 .462 0.63037 30.4 35.0 -3.8
Ryan Theriot 28 661 .263 .387 .359 0.60666 27.9 21.6 5.8
Adam Dunn 28 464 .299 .373 .528 0.62069 27.2 34.5 13.2

That's sick.

If they have 7 batters that can duplicate the 2008 numbers that's just plain going to steamroll the central division.

But hey, looks like we're going to land Willy Taveras. I hear he's fast.

EDIT: Can you imagine having that many hitters who's OBP is above .330, out rate is below 65%, EqA is above .260 and VORP is in double digits ? Almost enough to make you want to go see a baseball game.

edabbs44
12-20-2008, 09:03 PM
Thats spiffy.

Wasn't talking to you or about you.

Pssssst. The Cubs made the playoffs. That's sorta "successful" (as much as it pains me to type that)

Whatever.

But one of the biggest reasons why the Cubs turned it around was the offseason between '06 and '07. There, they spent an insane amount of money to both FAs on the market and their own guys. They had the in-house talent and then struck by signing outside guys like Derosa, Soriano and Lilly.

Tom Servo
12-20-2008, 09:16 PM
I still think he'll end up in Washington. I mean, can't you just see it?

BoydsOfSummer
12-20-2008, 09:26 PM
He'd be the second coming of Hank Sauer

Boy could we use a guy like Hank Sauer...

gm
12-20-2008, 09:57 PM
I see visions of fly balls drifting in the Wrigley wind and dropping in all around Dunn in RF

That's a tough place to play, for any outfielder. Junior hurt his groin out there when he slipped throwing on the wet grass

WVRed
12-20-2008, 10:09 PM
The only question is, can Dunn hit enough home runs to make Chicago fans forget about the defense he will play in right field?

Always Red
12-20-2008, 10:19 PM
The Cubs would be crazy not to sign Dunn if they can.

I thought the Reds were crazy to let him go, too, but it was kind of nice to not hear all the complaining about Dunn. Even if the team couldn't score any runs after they traded him.


It's a Cincinnati thing I guess.



It's really more of a Marty and Jeff thing...


I see visions of fly balls drifting in the Wrigley wind and dropping in all around Dunn in RF



Soriano and Dunner both in the same OF would really be brutal. You would need to have Willie Mays, in his prime, out there in CF to make it almost work. I love the Dunner, but he needs to either embrace 1B and work hard on it, or go the Al and DH.

cincrazy
12-21-2008, 01:23 AM
It would be a great signing for Chicago. He would strike out, and he would play poor D, but he would flat out rake. And they could use another patient hitter in that lineup. Not saying they'd be unbeatable by any stretch, but it'd be a good move.

However, the first time Dunner strikes out with RISP with the game on the line, brace yourself. Cubs fans gave up in the NLDS in the 3rd inning of game 1, they are even more irrational than Reds fans.

icehole3
12-21-2008, 07:30 AM
think they can get him for 8/160?

not if he's looking for a fair contract, I was thinking 4/39

Matt700wlw
12-21-2008, 09:02 AM
The lineup may reduce his OBP (which seems to be the greatest stat in the world around here), since he won't be "pitched around"," but it would do nothing to improve his strike out ratio. If you whiff in Cincy...you'll whiff in Chi-town. He may have more strike outs, since he won't be "pitched around"


He'd probably end up on the "reds killer" list, though....:)

Jpup
12-21-2008, 09:04 AM
The lineup may reduce his OBP (which seems to be the greatest stat in the world around here), since he won't be "pitched around"," but it would do nothing to improve his strike out ratio. If you whiff in Cincy...you'll whiff in Chi-town. He may have more strike outs, since he won't be "pitched around"


He'd probably end up on the "reds killer" list, though....

I really don't think so. If they don't pitch around him, he would have less strikeouts IMO. You pitch to Adam Dunn and you are gonna lose. I imagine he would have an OBP of .400 or more with some protection.

pahster
12-21-2008, 09:15 AM
not if he's looking for a fair contract, I was thinking 4/39

You still think he's going to take a pay cut as a free agent?

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 09:19 AM
You still think he's going to take a pay cut as a free agent? :rolleyes:

Apparently at least a 25% pay cut, too...

Jpup
12-21-2008, 09:21 AM
I can't remember exactly what he made last year, but I expect Dunn to get, at least, 12 million per year.

pahster
12-21-2008, 09:34 AM
I can't remember exactly what he made last year, but I expect Dunn to get, at least, 12 million per year.

He made $13 million last year, so expect him to get more than that per year.

Matt700wlw
12-21-2008, 09:38 AM
Teams are certainly banging his door down to pay him that amount...

Always Red
12-21-2008, 09:40 AM
Teams are certainly banging his door down to pay him that amount...

Nah, everyone's waiting to see what Manny and Tex get to set the bar.

pahster
12-21-2008, 09:44 AM
Teams are certainly banging his door down to pay him that amount...

Do you expect him to make less than a 37 year old Raul Ibanez (who is not as good as Dunn or Burrell)? Because that's what icehole's "fair contract" would be.

jesusfan
12-21-2008, 09:48 AM
Do you expect him to make less than a 37 year old Raul Ibanez (who is not as good as Dunn or Burrell)? Because that's what icehole's "fair contract" would be.

Ibanez only received that contract because the Phils GM is in love with him... Also, I would argue that ALOT of GM's would rather have guys like Ibanez than Dunn... Not that I agree, because I don't. That's the way it is though.

icehole3
12-21-2008, 10:06 AM
To quote the queen liberal Nancy Pelosi, "Everybody is gonna get a haircut!"

icehole3
12-21-2008, 10:08 AM
You still think he's going to take a pay cut as a free agent?

I like Dunn, but he isnt gonna get the big payday, maybe a few years ago yeah, but not in this recession period.

Always Red
12-21-2008, 10:11 AM
I like Dunn, but he isnt gonna get the big payday, maybe a few years ago yeah, but not in this recession period.

I think that's a key point.

Poor timing for Dunner and other FA's who are not perennial All Stars.

If I'm Dunn, I sign for a year or two for good solid money in a ballpark conducive to my game, then hope the economy recovers and then cash in.

edabbs44
12-21-2008, 10:49 AM
I really don't think so. If they don't pitch around him, he would have less strikeouts IMO. You pitch to Adam Dunn and you are gonna lose. I imagine he would have an OBP of .400 or more with some protection.

So, you can assume that Dunn will be "pitched to more" if he has "more protection". Chicago will give him "more protection". You believe that he'll have an OBP of greater than .400 with additional protection.

Does that mean you expect to see his BA go up an additional 30-40 points as well, since we can assume that he will be getting on base at a higher clip than history has shown with a decreased walk rate?

Jpup
12-21-2008, 10:55 AM
So, you can assume that Dunn will be "pitched to more" if he has "more protection". Chicago will give him "more protection". You believe that he'll have an OBP of greater than .400 with additional protection.

Does that mean you expect to see his BA go up an additional 30-40 points as well, since we can assume that he will be getting on base at a higher clip than history has shown with a decreased walk rate?

If they throw him more strikes, he will get more hits. Yes.

CougarQuest
12-21-2008, 11:58 AM
Dunn's first choice is whomever gives him the money

Jpup
12-21-2008, 12:12 PM
Dunn's first choice is whomever gives him the money

exactly.

M2
12-21-2008, 12:14 PM
I think Dunn's going to Chicago, just that it will be the White Sox instead of the Cubs. My take is still that Kenny Williams moves Jermaine Dye and signs Dunn.

Jpup
12-21-2008, 12:16 PM
I think Dunn's going to Chicago, just that it will be the White Sox instead of the Cubs. My take is still that Kenny Williams moves Jermaine Dye and signs Dunn.

talk about UPGRADE.

edabbs44
12-21-2008, 12:27 PM
If they throw him more strikes, he will get more hits. Yes.

Don't see it.

cincrazy
12-21-2008, 12:53 PM
If they throw him more strikes, he will get more hits. Yes.

I disagree with that. I don't see him getting anymore hits or hitting for a significantly higher average. His RBI number's may improve due to more people being on base, but I don't think you'll see him rack up more hits.

Ltlabner
12-21-2008, 04:04 PM
If they throw him more strikes, he will get more hits. Yes.

Was it Cyclone that posted the chart showing that most, or at least the overwhelming majority of Dunn's hits come from strikes? And that his hit rate plummets on pitches even slightly outside the zone?

So yea, it's not illogical to assume that seeing more strikes will lead to more hits.

vaticanplum
12-21-2008, 05:22 PM
For the record, Cubs fans aren't known for booing their own players. They get drunk and boo opposing players in the outfield.

We should be fairly aware by now that Cubs fans like losers above all else. Plus, booing Dunn for striking out presumes that a Cubs fan can recognize a strikeout. I say one in 10 of them. The other nine are busy getting drunk and unsuccessfully hitting on the girls around them.

I think Dunn would do extremely well at Wrigley. Or Comiskular, for that matter.

edabbs44
12-21-2008, 06:02 PM
Was it Cyclone that posted the chart showing that most, or at least the overwhelming majority of Dunn's hits come from strikes? And that his hit rate plummets on pitches even slightly outside the zone?

I might be ignorant, but wouldn't that probably be the case for most players?

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 06:38 PM
I think Dunn's going to Chicago, just that it will be the White Sox instead of the Cubs. My take is still that Kenny Williams moves Jermaine Dye and signs Dunn.

Which is amusing, b/c we gave away Dunn for peanuts, and are rumored to be sending Homer Bailey to the South Side for one Jermaine Dye.

Should all of this happen, I'll be all kind of amused.

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 06:40 PM
I might be ignorant, but wouldn't that probably be the case for most players?

Some players have success hitting balls out of the strike zone.

Dunn, not so much.

Dunn, however, can certainly handle pitches in the zone and mashes them. It's when he extends/expands his strike zone that you watch his AVG go South.

dougdirt
12-21-2008, 06:41 PM
Which is amusing, b/c we gave away Dunn for peanuts, and are rumored to be sending Homer Bailey to the South Side for one Jermaine Dye.

Should all of this happen, I'll be all kind of amused.

1 year of Dye > 2 months of Dunn.

They don't exactly have the same types of value on the trade market.

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 06:47 PM
1 year of Dye > 2 months of Dunn.

They don't exactly have the same types of value on the trade market.

Unless the Southsiders kick in plenty of coin for Jermaine Dye's contract, he'll be 2 million cheaper than Dunn, and give us far less production than Dunn.

So, that 1 year of overpriced Dye < contract extension for Dunn.


But it's all moot. Dunn isn't a Red anymore, and he certainly ain't gonna be a Red in the future.


But it would still be amusing if we traded Dunn for peanuts, and then sent your boy Homer Bailey to the Southsiders for 1 year of Jermaine Dye.

dougdirt
12-21-2008, 07:00 PM
Unless the Southsiders kick in plenty of coin for Jermaine Dye's contract, he'll be 2 million cheaper than Dunn, and give us far less production than Dunn.

So, that 1 year of overpriced Dye < contract extension for Dunn.


But it's all moot. Dunn isn't a Red anymore, and he certainly ain't gonna be a Red in the future.


But it would still be amusing if we traded Dunn for peanuts, and then sent your boy Homer Bailey to the Southsiders for 1 year of Jermaine Dye.

Thats not really accurate, because 1 year of Dye was going to be 2 million cheaper than 1 year of Dunn, not counting the likely 3-4 other years of Dunn at the same price that it would have taken to get Dunn back.

As for 'far less production' lets stop with the Dunn love fest. Adam Dunn last year had an OPS+ of 129. Jermaine Dye had an OPS+ last year of 126. Dunn was better, but it wasn't by much, much less far more productive.

westofyou
12-21-2008, 07:01 PM
I might be ignorant, but wouldn't that probably be the case for most players?

Not really, Info Solutions tracks the ability for hitters to hit the sphere in the zone and out of the zone, some are better than others.

Example: In 2006 the top six best BPS (BA + SLG %) in the NL in pitches out of the zone were

Cabrea .671
Pujols .618
Wright .594
Furcal .575
Ramirez A. .566


The worst would be :

Jenkins .171
Berkman .186
Ausmus .197
A Jones . 205
Dunn .205

I do know that Dunn topped .312 in 2007, but I don't have the exact number, nor do I have the 2008 numbers yet.

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 07:17 PM
Thats not really accurate, because 1 year of Dye was going to be 2 million cheaper than 1 year of Dunn, not counting the likely 3-4 other years of Dunn at the same price that it would have taken to get Dunn back.

As for 'far less production' lets stop with the Dunn love fest. Adam Dunn last year had an OPS+ of 129. Jermaine Dye had an OPS+ last year of 126. Dunn was better, but it wasn't by much, much less far more productive.

Ok, so now the scenario becomes would you rather have 1 year of Jermaine Dye, or multiple years of Homer Bailey and Adam Dunn?

dougdirt
12-21-2008, 07:19 PM
Ok, so now the scenario becomes would you rather have 1 year of Jermaine Dye, or multiple years of Homer Bailey and Adam Dunn?

At what price for Dunn and for how long? For 1 year of Dunn at 15 million? Sure, give me Dunn and Bailey. For 2 years and 26 million? Still on board. Not sure I go any further than 2 years on any left fielder who doesn't have both a plus bat and above average glove in LF though.

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 08:37 PM
At what price for Dunn and for how long? For 1 year of Dunn at 15 million? Sure, give me Dunn and Bailey. For 2 years and 26 million? Still on board. Not sure I go any further than 2 years on any left fielder who doesn't have both a plus bat and above average glove in LF though.

Good luck finding a LF with a plus bat and above average glove in LF this offseason that isn't acquired via trade.

TRF
12-21-2008, 10:25 PM
Good luck finding a LF with a plus bat and above average glove in LF

Fixed that for ya. :D

LF has historically been a place for decent bat decent glove but not plus of both. The top 10 LF's according to OPS


Manny
Quentin
Dunn
Bay
Braun
Soriano
Burrell
Cust
Ibanez
Damon

That's NOT an elite group of defenders. Maybe Bay is above average defensively, maybe. Braun had a great year in LF, which is great cuz he was a butcher at 3B.

I could certainly live with Dunn's defense in LF for a few more years considering he was the third best offensive LF in all of baseball last year. In fact he's been a top 10 LF every year since 2002 except 2003. In the last 5 seasons he was top 3 four times with one 1 ranking.

That is elite. doug's assertion that he'd only go beyond 2 years if he was a plus bat with an above average glove is silly. Those guys just don't really exist.

Adam Dunn isn't an elite defender. He is an elite bat though.

Boss-Hog
12-21-2008, 10:29 PM
Fixed that for ya. :D

LF has historically been a place for decent bat decent glove but not plus of both. The top 10 LF's according to OPS


Manny
Quentin
Dunn
Bay
Braun
Soriano
Burrell
Cust
Ibanez
Damon

That's NOT an elite group of defenders. Maybe Bay is above average defensively, maybe. Braun had a great year in LF, which is great cuz he was a butcher at 3B.

I could certainly live with Dunn's defense in LF for a few more years considering he was the third best offensive LF in all of baseball last year. In fact he's been a top 10 LF every year since 2002 except 2003. In the last 5 seasons he was top 3 four times with one 1 ranking.

That is elite. doug's assertion that he'd only go beyond 2 years if he was a plus bat with an above average glove is silly. Those guys just don't really exist.

Adam Dunn isn't an elite defender. He is an elite bat though.
I'd call top three at his position elite - top ten, I would not or the a third of left fielders are "elite".

TRF
12-21-2008, 10:39 PM
I'd call top three at his position elite - top ten, I would not or the a third of left fielders are "elite".

Of this group who would you say is elite? Manny certainly with the bat. Quentin needs to do it more than once. I'd say Bay is close. Burrell is a maybe. Of all of them, Manny and Dunn have been the most consistent

Highlifeman21
12-21-2008, 10:43 PM
Fixed that for ya. :D

LF has historically been a place for decent bat decent glove but not plus of both. The top 10 LF's according to OPS


Manny
Quentin
Dunn
Bay
Braun
Soriano
Burrell
Cust
Ibanez
Damon

That's NOT an elite group of defenders. Maybe Bay is above average defensively, maybe. Braun had a great year in LF, which is great cuz he was a butcher at 3B.

I could certainly live with Dunn's defense in LF for a few more years considering he was the third best offensive LF in all of baseball last year. In fact he's been a top 10 LF every year since 2002 except 2003. In the last 5 seasons he was top 3 four times with one 1 ranking.

That is elite. doug's assertion that he'd only go beyond 2 years if he was a plus bat with an above average glove is silly. Those guys just don't really exist.

Adam Dunn isn't an elite defender. He is an elite bat though.

You're absolutely right, I wanted to type "Good luck finding a LF with a plus bat and above average glove in LF", but I figured I'd address the whole finding a LF this offseason via FA. It makes absolutely no sense to trade for a LF when we let one essentially walk in July. So, logically, FA is the only answer to obtain a LF, since we currently lack any good options in-house (sorry Laynce Nix).

This isn't beating a dead horse, but rather repeating my firm believe that LF D doesn't hurt a team as much as other positions. In fact, I'm adamant that LF is the one place where D hurts a team the least.

That's why, per the list you provided, teams stick their big bats that can't play a lick of D.

That's also why you see a majority of guys that currently DH used to play LF or 1B.

doug's looking for a unicorn, or the Easter Bunny, or the tooth fairy to play LF for the Reds. He wants that plus bat with an average to above average D. But, as you've pointed out, if you want that plus bat you're sacrificing D. If you want that D (that doesn't help your team all that much), then you're sacrificing offense (which hurts your team more than the improved D helps).

Instead of worrying about something that doesn't matter, like LF D, the Reds need to worry about their current lack of D (unless they make Janish the everyday SS) at SS. Combine a GG SS to go with our GG 2B, and maybe that'll make an actual difference in the RA side of the RA/RS equation.

Boss-Hog
12-21-2008, 11:00 PM
Of this group who would you say is elite? Manny certainly with the bat. Quentin needs to do it more than once. I'd say Bay is close. Burrell is a maybe. Of all of them, Manny and Dunn have been the most consistent
From that list, Manny, Braun and Bay (along with Quentin if he has more years like 2008, as you mentioned).

dougdirt
12-22-2008, 12:41 AM
Good luck finding a LF with a plus bat and above average glove in LF this offseason that isn't acquired via trade.

Its not too easy to find, but its also why I am not willing to commit more than 2 years to a left fielder. When your entire game is base around your bat, I have a problem giving you lots of money for a long period of time.

Jpup
12-22-2008, 02:54 AM
Was it Cyclone that posted the chart showing that most, or at least the overwhelming majority of Dunn's hits come from strikes? And that his hit rate plummets on pitches even slightly outside the zone?

So yea, it's not illogical to assume that seeing more strikes will lead to more hits.

That is exactly where my theory comes from.

AtomicDumpling
12-22-2008, 03:26 AM
Ok, so now the scenario becomes would you rather have 1 year of Jermaine Dye, or multiple years of Homer Bailey and Adam Dunn?

Yep.

It sure doesn't make much sense to let young Adam Dunn walk for almost nothing, then turn around and trade away Homer Bailey for the privilege of paying an inferior and much older Jermaine Dye $11 million to take Dunn's place.

Why trade a top prospect and jack up the payroll?

I don't think the Reds are in a position to be trading top prospects like Homer Bailey for one season of a highly-paid old guy. The Reds should be doing the opposite.

edabbs44
12-22-2008, 07:06 AM
Fixed that for ya. :D

LF has historically been a place for decent bat decent glove but not plus of both. The top 10 LF's according to OPS


Manny
Quentin
Dunn
Bay
Braun
Soriano
Burrell
Cust
Ibanez
Damon

That's NOT an elite group of defenders. Maybe Bay is above average defensively, maybe. Braun had a great year in LF, which is great cuz he was a butcher at 3B.

I could certainly live with Dunn's defense in LF for a few more years considering he was the third best offensive LF in all of baseball last year. In fact he's been a top 10 LF every year since 2002 except 2003. In the last 5 seasons he was top 3 four times with one 1 ranking.

That is elite. doug's assertion that he'd only go beyond 2 years if he was a plus bat with an above average glove is silly. Those guys just don't really exist.

Adam Dunn isn't an elite defender. He is an elite bat though.

What was the criteria used to compile this list?

Highlifeman21
12-22-2008, 07:40 AM
Its not too easy to find, but its also why I am not willing to commit more than 2 years to a left fielder. When your entire game is base around your bat, I have a problem giving you lots of money for a long period of time.

3-4 years is a long period of time?

Highlifeman21
12-22-2008, 07:41 AM
What was the criteria used to compile this list?

According to OPS.

He said that at the top of his list.

edabbs44
12-22-2008, 08:16 AM
According to OPS.

He said that at the top of his list.

Thanks...but where's Matt Holliday?

camisadelgolf
12-22-2008, 08:39 AM
Thanks...but where's Matt Holliday?

I'm pretty sure that list is based on only 2008 numbers because there's no way Johnny Damon could be on a list of top OPSing left fielders over a period of more than one year. As for Matt Holliday not being there, maybe it has something to do with park factors?
:confused:

edabbs44
12-22-2008, 08:54 AM
I'm pretty sure that list is based on only 2008 numbers because there's no way Johnny Damon could be on a list of top OPSing left fielders over a period of more than one year. As for Matt Holliday not being there, maybe it has something to do with park factors?
:confused:

Carlos Lee appears to also be missing.

camisadelgolf
12-22-2008, 08:58 AM
Carlos Lee appears to also be missing.

I guess he was omitted because he played in only 115 games. The list is bunk, either way.

edabbs44
12-22-2008, 08:59 AM
I guess he was omitted because he played in only 115 games. The list is bunk, either way.

Then it isn't a very fair list.

SteelSD
12-22-2008, 09:11 AM
If TRF pulled the stats from ESPN's sortable stats page (and I'm almost certain he did), Carlos Lee doesn't show up until you filter down to 400 minimum AB and ESPN seems to have simply lost Matt Holliday. It's not that difficult to simply lop off slots 9 and 10 and slot Holliday and Lee where they belong. Of course, doing so doesn't detract from TRF's initial point as to the lack of defense to be found among the group of plus bats in LF, so I don't know what the griping is about.

edabbs44
12-22-2008, 09:19 AM
If TRF pulled the stats from ESPN's sortable stats page (and I'm almost certain he did), Carlos Lee doesn't show up until you filter down to 400 minimum AB and ESPN seems to have simply lost Matt Holliday. It's not that difficult to simply lop off slots 9 and 10 and slot Holliday and Lee where they belong. Of course, doing so doesn't detract from TRF's initial point as to the lack of defense to be found among the group of plus bats in LF, so I don't know what the griping is about.

The issue is that the list is then used to make statements like this:


I'd call top three at his position elite - top ten, I would not or the a third of left fielders are "elite".

SteelSD
12-22-2008, 09:28 AM
The issue is that the list is then used to make statements like this:

Well, that's not an assertion TRF was making and I'm still failing to see how switching out two guys from the initial list does anything to counter the point TRF was actually making regarding the general lack of defense among a LF grouping of plus bats.

Ltlabner
12-22-2008, 09:31 AM
Well, that's not an assertion TRF was making and I'm still failing to see how switching out two guys from the initial list does anything to counter the point TRF was actually making regarding the general lack of defense among a LF grouping of plus bats.

It doesn't.

Other than to obfuscate and/or ignore the main point.

edabbs44
12-22-2008, 09:42 AM
Well, that's not an assertion TRF was making and I'm still failing to see how switching out two guys from the initial list does anything to counter the point TRF was actually making regarding the general lack of defense among a LF grouping of plus bats.

Couldn't care less. Any referenced stats and/or lists should be accurate.

If I said that Dunn was a productive hitter and used a stat of a career 1.100 OPS to back that up, should that sit unnoticed? Even if side discussions spun off on how Adam Dunn should be a unanimous HOFer since he has elite OPS numbers? Even though the main argument was only that Dunn was a productive hitter?

I am not countering TRF's point. I am only trying to correct an extremely quantitative list.

nate
12-22-2008, 09:53 AM
Is this what we're talking about?



For single seasons
For 2008
Played 50% of games at LF
(requiring At least 400 plate appearances)
sorted by greatest OPS


Cnt Player OPS PA Year Age
+----+-----------------+-----+---+----+---+
1 Manny Ramirez 1.031 654 2008 36
2 Carlos Quentin .965 569 2008 25
3 Matt Holliday .947 623 2008 28
4 Carlos Lee .937 481 2008 32
5 Adam Dunn .899 651 2008 28
6 Jason Bay .895 670 2008 29
7 Ryan Braun .888 663 2008 24
8 Alfonso Soriano .876 503 2008 32
9 Pat Burrell .874 645 2008 31
10 Jack Cust .851 598 2008 29
11 Raul Ibanez .837 707 2008 36
12 Johnny Damon .836 623 2008 34
13 Josh Willingham .834 416 2008 29
14 Conor Jackson .822 612 2008 26
15 David DeJesus .818 577 2008 28
16 Luke Scott .808 536 2008 30
17 Fred Lewis .791 521 2008 27
18 David Murphy .786 454 2008 26
19 Ben Francisco .770 499 2008 26
20 Willie Harris .761 424 2008 30
21 Garret Anderson .758 593 2008 36
22 Delmon Young .741 623 2008 22
23 Carl Crawford .719 480 2008 26
24 Emil Brown .683 438 2008 33
25 Gregor Blanco .675 519 2008 24
26 Juan Pierre .655 406 2008 30

nate
12-22-2008, 09:55 AM
How about over the past three years?



Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers
From 2005 to 2008
Played 50% of games at LF
requiring At least 1200 plate appearances
sorted by greatest OPS

Cnt Player OPS PA From To
+----+-----------------+-----+-----+----+----+
1 Manny Ramirez .989 2431 2005 2008
2 Matt Holliday .955 2529 2005 2008
3 Moises Alou .913 1282 2005 2008
4 Adam Dunn .905 2637 2005 2008
5 Pat Burrell .890 2479 2005 2008
6 Jason Bay .886 2680 2005 2008
7 Carlos Lee .877 2561 2005 2008
8 Alfonso Soriano .876 2530 2005 2008
9 Hideki Matsui .849 1915 2005 2008
10 Andre Ethier .846 1542 2006 2008
11 Josh Willingham .837 1621 2005 2008
12 Raul Ibanez .832 2732 2005 2008
13 Cliff Floyd .808 1608 2005 2008
14 Carl Crawford .797 2443 2005 2008
15 Frank Catalanotto .796 1629 2005 2008
16 Luis Gonzalez .796 2253 2005 2008
17 Reed Johnson .769 1637 2005 2008
18 Garret Anderson .767 2234 2005 2008
19 Kevin Mench .756 1536 2005 2008
20 Eric Byrnes .754 1984 2005 2008
21 Craig Monroe .733 1814 2005 2008
22 Jason Michaels .726 1507 2005 2008
23 Shannon Stewart .713 1619 2005 2008
24 Jay Payton .706 1856 2005 2008
25 Scott Podsednik .684 1576 2005 2008

camisadelgolf
12-22-2008, 09:56 AM
Is this what we're talking about?



For single seasons
For 2008
Played 50% of games at LF
(requiring At least 400 plate appearances)
sorted by greatest OPS


Cnt Player OPS PA Year Age
+----+-----------------+-----+---+----+---+
1 Manny Ramirez 1.031 654 2008 36
2 Carlos Quentin .965 569 2008 25
3 Matt Holliday .947 623 2008 28
4 Carlos Lee .937 481 2008 32
5 Adam Dunn .899 651 2008 28
6 Jason Bay .895 670 2008 29
7 Ryan Braun .888 663 2008 24
8 Alfonso Soriano .876 503 2008 32
9 Pat Burrell .874 645 2008 31
10 Jack Cust .851 598 2008 29
11 Raul Ibanez .837 707 2008 36
12 Johnny Damon .836 623 2008 34
13 Josh Willingham .834 416 2008 29
14 Conor Jackson .822 612 2008 26
15 David DeJesus .818 577 2008 28
16 Luke Scott .808 536 2008 30
17 Fred Lewis .791 521 2008 27
18 David Murphy .786 454 2008 26
19 Ben Francisco .770 499 2008 26
20 Willie Harris .761 424 2008 30
21 Garret Anderson .758 593 2008 36
22 Delmon Young .741 623 2008 22
23 Carl Crawford .719 480 2008 26
24 Emil Brown .683 438 2008 33
25 Gregor Blanco .675 519 2008 24
26 Juan Pierre .655 406 2008 30


So what that tells us is . . . Dunn was only 21 slots ahead of Pierre. :D

Highlifeman21
12-22-2008, 10:07 AM
Carlos Lee appears to also be missing.

Carlos Lee, slightly higher OPS than Dunn, completely worse D than Dunn.

Matt Holiday, better OPS than Dunn, better D than Dunn.


So one guy proves that a plus bat with average to above average glove exists, the other guy proves that most teams put their big bat butcher D in LF.

edabbs44
12-22-2008, 10:15 AM
Carlos Lee, slightly higher OPS than Dunn, completely worse D than Dunn.

Matt Holiday, better OPS than Dunn, better D than Dunn.


So one guy proves that a plus bat with average to above average glove exists, the other guy proves that most teams put their big bat butcher D in LF.

Without scouting each and looking at statistical analysis, I would assume that this is correct.

TRF
12-22-2008, 11:49 PM
The list was cobbled together quickly from ESPN's site. dunno why Holliday was left off. Lee was ommitted due to AB's.

Still doesn't take away from Dunn's overall dominance with the bat. He's arguable been on of the three best LF's in baseball since 2004.

Put it this way. How many teams right now wouldn't be upgraded with Dunn in LF? 2? 3 maybe.

That makes him elite. His HR prowess makes him elite. His OBP makes him elite.

Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn? I'd take Dunn.

red-in-la
12-23-2008, 12:04 AM
I know many of you don't ahree.....but at some point, I have to believe that most franchsies know more about talent than anybody here does. That point made, does anybody think Dunn will get ELITE outfilder money?

My opinion is that he will be lucky to get 10 mill a year......but that is just my opinion.

So, if he doesn't get elite money in a completely OPEN market, is he elite talent?

REDREAD
12-23-2008, 12:08 AM
I know many of you don't ahree.....but at some point, I have to believe that most franchsies know more about talent than anybody here does. That point made, does anybody think Dunn will get ELITE outfilder money?

My opinion is that he will be lucky to get 10 mill a year......but that is just my opinion.

So, if he doesn't get elite money in a completely OPEN market, is he elite talent?

I think Dunn will get at least 15 million/year. The exact amount depends on how many years he wants and if he wants other concessions. I'm going to assume he's going to want at least a limited no trade clause, if not a full one. He may have to give up some money to get that.

If Dunn is willing to move to 1b and/or DH at least some of the time, he'll probably get more money as well.

RedsManRick
12-23-2008, 12:11 AM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fair-for-dunn


What’s Fair for Dunn?

by R.J. Anderson - December 22, 2008 Filed under Daily Graphings

Adam Dunn raised some eyebrows last week when he declared the Chicago Cubs as his top choice. Dunn backed his preference by stating preferential financial details as “fair”. Could it be that Dunn is the rara avis of sluggers, the one willing to take less money than his counterparts to play for his top choice? During the season, Dunn’s former teammate Bronson Arroyo speculated Dunn would seek a nine-figure contract. Excuse Dunn’s cupidity, because those hopes were prior to the bottoming out of the market. What exactly would a fair deal for Dunn be?

The 29-year-old had a solid offensive season in 2008 and produced 29.7 wRAA. Not quite as good as 2007 (36.2), but it wasn’t because Dunn didn’t hit homeruns. In fact, Dunn has hit exactly 40 homeruns four straight seasons, and more than 40 five straight seasons. Instead, the drop in wOBA and slugging percentage seems to be tied with a .262 batting average on balls in play. Roughly 18% of batted balls were line drives, which suggests Dunn’s BABIP is a bit unlucky. Consider that if Dunn’s BABIP was simply .299 (using the somewhat tired .120 + LD% method of expected BABIP) he would’ve recorded 12 more hits with 318 non-homerun batted balls. Even if each of those were singles, Dunn’s slugging would have jumped more than 0.02 points.

Defensively Dunn is poor. Over the past three seasons Dunn has recorded UZRs of -11.1, -14.9, and -10.1 in left field. Dewan’s +/- has Dunn worth -58 plays since 2006, or -46.4 runs, an average of -15.5 runs per season. Somehow PMR put Dunn in the positive. Positioning? Fluke? Who knows. That still doesn’t save Dunn from a negative average. Call it -10.

Marcels doesn’t seem to like Dunn too much, a .383 wOBA and 20.5 wRAA. I can easily see Dunn outperforming that projection, and I’ll say 25 wRAA, which could be a wee pessimistic. Dunn seems like a safe bet to get around 650 plate appearances, and gives us the equation necessary for projecting Dunn’s WAR, between 2.6 and 2.8, depending on whether you use 22.5 or 20 runs.

I called it 2.7 WAR and figured Dunn will get around a four-year deal. Depending on how you feel about Dunn’s potential decline, I have Dunn worth roughly 45 million. Now, let’s see if 11.25 annually is “fair” to the Dunn camp.

red-in-la
12-23-2008, 07:56 AM
The Cubs arem't going to sign Dunn. If they do, they will have one of worst defensive outfields this side of a brick yard. And Dunn isn't going to get a shot at 1B with Derrick Lee around.....and the last time I looked the NL Central did not have the DH.

In fact, the last article I read had his only option being the Nationals......

Some bidding war......

redsmetz
12-23-2008, 08:00 AM
The Cubs arem't going to sign Dunn. If they do, they will have one of worst defensive outfields this side of a brick yard. And Dunn isn't going to get a shot at 1B with Derrick Lee around.....and the last time I looked the NL Central did not have the DH.

In fact, the last article I read had his only option being the Nationals......

Some bidding war......

I haven't followed this thread much, so perhaps someone else said this, but if I was Adam Dunn, I'd invest in a 1st baseman mitt and be knocking on the Angels door (or really any AL club that has a 1st base need and can use the DH).

My guess though is that Dunn and some other free agents will settle for a short deal and try again in a year or two when the economy is back on its feet.

GAC
12-23-2008, 08:07 AM
I haven't followed this thread much, so perhaps someone else said this, but if I was Adam Dunn, I'd invest in a 1st baseman mitt and be knocking on the Angels door (or really any AL club that has a 1st base need and can use the DH).

My guess though is that Dunn and some other free agents will settle for a short deal and try again in a year or two when the economy is back on its feet.

Yep. And it could prove to be a perfect fit for both Dunn and the Angels. They replace not only their 1Bman, but really help (replace) the offensive production lost with Tex gone.

Has anyone really been knockin' on Adam's door as of late? He may not get the multi-year deal he (and his agent) want right now with the economy, so certain teams might be able to swing a short-term deal.

Jpup
12-23-2008, 08:11 AM
Rosenthal's article this morning said that the Nationals are his only suitors, but many teams are positioning to land him. He also said the Reds were interested in Pat Burrell, but was out of their price range.

redsmetz
12-23-2008, 08:13 AM
Yep. And it could prove to be a perfect fit for both Dunn and the Angels. They replace not only their 1Bman, but really help (replace) the offensive production lost with Tex gone.

Has anyone really been knockin' on Adam's door as of late? He may not get the multi-year deal he (and his agent) want right now with the economy, so certain teams might be able to swing a short-term deal.

Lets not forget that even in a diminished financial market, any one of these guys will be paid handsomely. There should be no complaints. And their day can come again.

red-in-la
12-23-2008, 08:17 AM
Well, I sure would love to get Adam's paycheck in April......I just wonder if he won't be one of the sacrifical cows that baseball uses to make it look like it feels our (the common folks) pain.

Sea Ray
12-23-2008, 10:27 AM
If Adam Dunn doesn't get the money/years some around here think he deserves, it's not because of the economy. It's because no team thinks he's worth it. He'll get what he's worth and he won't starve.

edabbs44
12-23-2008, 10:41 AM
If Adam Dunn doesn't get the money/years some around here think he deserves, it's not because of the economy. It's because no team thinks he's worth it. He'll get what he's worth and he won't starve.

I would say it is a little of both. I think the economy will be a factor for most, with the exception of the elite class.

flyer85
12-23-2008, 10:46 AM
the funny thing is everyone is sitting around and waiting to see who will be the loser(that will be the team that gets him) of the Tex sweepstakes. I would expect the pace to pick up quite a bit after Tex signs.

Matt700wlw
12-26-2008, 12:33 PM
O's have interest

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/orioles-could-p.html