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chettt
12-20-2008, 05:50 PM
What about Joe Crede? Should the Reds take a chance, say a one-year contract with club option for 2010, on Crede? I know, a faulty back & Scott Boras are two strikes against him from the start. He is presently working out pain-free. Here's an article from last October:

Free Agent Bargain: Joe Crede by Dave Cameron - October 28, 2008 ∑ Filed under Daily Graphings

So, this time, I swear, the free agent bargain is actually a free agent.

Much like with Juan Rivera, this potential bargain was a tremendous player in 2006 - he hit .283/.323/.506, good for a 0.71 WPA/LI in 586 plate appearances. The power overcame the low on base rate, and he was a somewhat above average hitter. Meanwhile, John Dewanís +/- system had him at +31 plays at his position, a staggering total that profiled him as an elite defender. As a third baseman, the combination of above average bat and remarkably awesome glove made him one of the gameís under-appeciated stars.

Iím guessing that practically no one has figured out that Iím talking about Joe Crede, because he certainly didnít get much publicity for his outstanding 2006 at the time. As defensive performances get more notoriety, however, we can look back at that season and recognize it as one of the best under-the-radar seasons in recent history.

However, in 2007, Credeís balky balk finally went out, and he had to undergo season ending back surgery. Those back problems cut his 2008 season short as well, and over the last two years, heís been limited to just 551 plate appearances while playing through pain. His reliability is a real question, and the White Sox are expected to go another direction in their quest for a full time third baseman.

Now, Iím not a doctor, so donít take this as any kind of endorsement of his future health. For all I know, his back problems could be career ending. However, if theyíre not, and the medical people can figure out how to keep him on the field, his 2008 performance should assure potential GMs that Crede can still play.

The power is still there - he had a .212 ISO, built on 36 extra base hits in just 335 at-bats. His contact rate was identical to his 2006 performance, so it doesnít appear he had to adjust his swing to compensate for the pain. Contact and power are the building blocks of a good hitter, and Credeís abilities in those areas didnít seem to suffer when he was on the field.

Defensively, itís pretty much the same story. Heís played just over 1,200 innings at third base the last two years, basically a full seasonís worth of games, and +/- has him at +24 plays over that time. Even as a step down from his +31 in 2006, itís a great rating. You could conservatively drop his true talent level to +15, accounting for more aging, and heíd still be among the very best hot corner defenders around.

In terms of on field skills, Crede projects as something close to a league average hitter with defense thatís worth +1.5 to +2.0 wins above an average third baseman. Over a full season, that would make Crede a +3.5 to +4 win player. If he was completely healthy, weíd expect him to get something like $15 million a year in a long term deal.

But heís not healthy, and so heís not going to get anything close to that. Itíd be shocking if he got anything beyond a one year offer with a team option for 2010. But if he can stay on the field, even for 100-120 games a year, heís got the abilities to play at an all-star level. Right now, heís Milton Bradley with less attitude problems, and there are probably quite a few teams who wish they would have taken a chance on Bradley last winter.

It all depends on his health, because there shouldnít be too many questions about Joe Credeís abilities to help a winning team when heís on the field.

Is he worth a chance as the right-handed bat the Reds are looking for?

redsfandan
12-20-2008, 08:11 PM
He's like Bradley. IF he's healthy he'll help you. That's a big if though. If he's not healthy than you have a hole in the lineup. MAYBE if we could land both Crede and Baldelli and the money/terms fit.

Griffey012
12-20-2008, 09:10 PM
I'll pass on Crede and his awful OBP and injury history.

Bip Roberts
12-20-2008, 09:25 PM
We have players better than Joe Crede

Hondo
12-21-2008, 02:05 AM
Gold Glover, could hit 30 HR in GAB easily if Healthy... I am in, especially if EE goes to Left and can concentrate on Hitting... Might have a 30-40 Homer season... EE

BEETTLEBUG
12-21-2008, 03:53 AM
I go that direction if he is healthy.

dunner13
12-21-2008, 08:01 AM
I love crede. I also think lowell could be a nice addition. We need a veteran leader on this team, otherwise its going to fall to stormy weathers again.

redsfandan
12-21-2008, 03:57 PM
Fwiw, Crede and Wigginton are roughly the same age (Crede is only 6 months younger) with similar stats:

Player From To Yrs G AB R 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
Joe Crede 2000-2008 9 798 2768 350 143 125 422 170 403 .257 .306 .447 93
Ty Wigginton 2002-2008 7 784 2715 350 163 110 384 218 534 .270 .330 .460 105

Also, because of Credes injury history, he'll likely be cheaper.

As far as Lowell, he is still under contract to make $12 million in each of the next two seasons so, between the money and the prospects that would have to be included in a deal, he would cost alot more.

roby
12-21-2008, 05:59 PM
Fwiw, Crede and Wigginton are roughly the same age (Crede is only 6 months younger) with similar stats:

Player From To Yrs G AB R 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS+
Joe Crede 2000-2008 9 798 2768 350 143 125 422 170 403 .257 .306 .447 93
Ty Wigginton 2002-2008 7 784 2715 350 163 110 384 218 534 .270 .330 .460 105

Also, because of Credes injury history, he'll likely be cheaper.

As far as Lowell, he is still under contract to make $12 million in each of the next two seasons so, between the money and the prospects that would have to be included in a deal, he would cost alot more.

I also like Crede on "The Office!" :thumbup:

gedred69
12-21-2008, 06:47 PM
I'll just keep beating the same drum. Look for somebody in the system to step up in '09? Dorn. Dougdirt previously stated he projects to be a 30HR guy even as a platooner against RH pitching. In Fay's article this morning he cites somebody from Redsminors.com, who says of the Reds top prospects, (Valaika, Frazier, Stubbs), Dorn is the only guy who could step on the field at GABP in "09 and not be over-matched.

bigredbunter
12-21-2008, 07:02 PM
I don't see that it makes sense unless they move EE --Then Crede is really only a stopgap (someone you would only want for 2 years at the outside).

redsfandan
12-21-2008, 07:42 PM
Sure Dorn could make the club and help as a backup or in a platoon with someone else. But I'm not sure it makes sense to bank on him as a starter just yet. We still need to acquire a bat for 1-2 years that can be a bridge to those prospects.

gedred69
12-21-2008, 08:33 PM
Sure Dorn could make the club and help as a backup or in a platoon with someone else. But I'm not sure it makes sense to bank on him as a starter just yet. We still need to acquire a bat for 1-2 years that can be a bridge to those prospects.

Yep, pretty much my point. Question is, who is the platoon to face LH pitchers? (although Dorn's avg. against Lh'ers isn't much worse than Dunn's overall).

redsfandan
12-21-2008, 09:11 PM
I think most would prefer to not have a platoon in left but...

Baldelli seems to do better vs lefties:
Split G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP 399 1368 1270 .276 .316 .427 .743
vs LHP 217 508 466 .296 .347 .494 .841

I'm sure there are others that do well vs lefties but you could hand 200-300 ab's to Dorn in left and split the rest of the ab's in left and in center between Baldelli and Dickerson.

Dickerson: 450 abs
Baldelli: 450 abs
Dorn: 300 abs

That would only leave 100-200 abs which could be split between people like Hopper, Hairston, and Nix, etc.

biggergipper
12-31-2008, 09:55 AM
I'd love to see the Reds step in and give Crede an incentive ladden deal if he will take it and then move Edwin out to left if they won't step up and sign someone to play left. I think Cell Field is similar to Great American so I don't think he would hit a lot more homers but I'll take another 25-30 homers in the lineup at a .260 average.

Chi-Town Red
12-31-2008, 10:21 AM
his back is toast...trust me on this...... i live 3 blocks from White Sox park and have watched him for many yrs...stay away from him , unless its a utility situation