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maniem
12-22-2008, 05:51 PM
As we all know, the Reds are in need of offense. If they still have money to spend, and they should, where will they spend it? Let's say the Reds and Sox end up making the deal that will send Homer + prospect for Dye. Then, they decide to sign Abreu for 3 yrs/36 mil to play right field, thus moving Bruce to center. Now, I realize both of these guys will be 35 next year and may be on the decline, but adding Dye and Abreu would instantly upgrade the offense tremendously. That's a lot of money for Abreu, but the guy can still hit, knows how to get on base (.403 career OBP), and still will play a decent right field. The only question mark then becomes improving the shortstop defense. Can we live with AGon/Janish hitting in the 8th spot, as long as they can play solid D? We all know they would a black hole on offense, but their defense may be worth it (especially Janish). Dickerson and Hopper become the 4th and 5th outfielders, Keppinger becomes the top utility guy in the infield or shares starts with AGon. So the lineup could look like this:

Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
Abreu - RF
Dye - LF
Bruce - CF
EdE - 3B
Hernandez - C
AGon/Kepp - SS

The only problem is the leadoff, and Phillips isn't really an option there, but it's either he or Bruce. When Keppinger or Dickerson start, either one could be inserted there. Abreu would be a big upgrade over Junior from last year, while Dye could come close to equalling Dunn's output. (I'd rather have Dunn out there with his career .900 OPS, but we all know that isn't likely to happen).

So, would these moves make the Reds contenders in 2009? I'm not sure, but it would definitely make things interesting.

WildcatFan
12-22-2008, 06:00 PM
It would definitely make the Reds contenders; unfortunately they don't have $24 million to spend.

NorrisHopper30
12-22-2008, 06:03 PM
That would only work out if we got rid of Phillips..and it still might cost too much. That is a nasty lineup though.

maniem
12-22-2008, 06:05 PM
It would definitely make the Reds contenders; unfortunately they don't have $24 million to spend.

You're right, the Reds would have to demand money back from the Sox to help with Dye's salary. It all depends on who the other prospect would be along with Homer. If it's a pretty good prospect, the Reds would have to demand the Sox to cover a good portion of his salary.

WildcatFan
12-22-2008, 06:09 PM
I think the second prospect would have to be pretty good just to make that Dye deal happen with no money exchanged. I can't imagine the Sox would fork over the kind of money necessary to be able to fit the trade into an $80 million payroll unless there were a major leaguer included.

ED44
12-22-2008, 06:10 PM
Lineup would improve, but the defense in the OF would be horrid.

Bip Roberts
12-22-2008, 08:28 PM
Dusty is the manager of this team meaning he would probably just bench Bruce because dusty thinks he is fragile like every other young player.

UPRedsFan
12-22-2008, 08:45 PM
Conventional wisdom among the Reds FO seems to be that they need a right handed bopper between Bruce and Votto. Dunn OPS'd 782 against lhp. With Dunn no longer an option, it seems to me the task is to find someone who can improve on that against lefties without turning into Phillips or EE against righties.

Lots of talk about Burrell or Dye as the best apparent available options. But if you compare Burrell and Dye and look at their splits, Abreu should be in the conversation as well.

Abreu OPS'd 833 against rhp and 865 against lhp. Abreu's OBP was 370 or 372 - didn't matter who he was facing. Oddly enough he slugged a little lower against rhp. I love the OBP. He may be my first choice because I imagine his D to be better than Burrell.

Burrell OPS'd 843 against righties and 951 against lefties. Good second choice. Finally a right handed hitter who can do some damage against rhp. (In case you were wondering - EE OPS'd 766 and BP only 676 against righties.)

Lastly, Dye OPS'd 872 against righties and 917 against lefties. But the age, the fact he would cost prospects, and the lower OBP (340 and 354) makes him the least attractive option.

C'mon Walt - Abreu or Burrell, whichever comes cheapest for the shortest term contract. Make September interesting again!!!

BLEEDS
12-22-2008, 09:04 PM
I think they COULD do that, except no way in Hades they put Bruce in CF. They are looking for a Defensive/Speedy/Lead-off type in CF - not necessary all, but probably in that order...

I would say get an Abreu or Burrell (my first choice), AND then go get a Baldelli to play 100 games (+/- 20/25) in CF split duties with Dickerson. Then you've got a pretty decent stick in each position, and good D in 2 of 3 (LF, which arguably nobody should really care about anyways, esp. if the dude is a HUGE RC'd guy).

That would almost be a pretty darn effective OPS OF to get us over the hump Offensively without really taking a huge step backwards in D.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

goreds2
12-23-2008, 05:23 AM
It would definitely make the Reds contenders; unfortunately they don't have $24 million to spend.


Are we not saving around 28 million this year by not having Dunn and Griffey?

I am an Abreu fan. That would be an awesome sign up if it were to happen.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/abreubo01.shtml

Bip Roberts
12-23-2008, 08:47 AM
We have about 10 million to spend right now.

UPRedsFan
12-23-2008, 09:33 AM
Where has the other money gone?

Can someone give a rundown of the salary increases and how that ate up Dunn and Griffey's money? Hernandez was a net increase of 2 million if I remember right. Rhodes I don't think was an increase over Affeldt was he?

How much more do Cordero, Arroyo, Harang get this year?

RedLegsToday
12-23-2008, 10:26 AM
Cordero gets bumped up 3.5 million
Harang gets bumped up 4.25 milliion
Arroyo gets bumped up 5.5 million!
BPhil gets bumped up 2 million
AGone gets bumped up .75 million
The Reds owe .975 million in buyouts to Stanton, Castro and Ross

RedLegsToday
12-23-2008, 10:28 AM
It looks like BPhil gets another quarter million next year for winning the 2008 gold glove award, so, make that 2.25 million.

RedLegsToday
12-23-2008, 10:37 AM
Looking at Cot's Baseball Contracts website, after arbitration raises to EdE and Weathers, the Reds will have 60 million invested for 2009 in 10 players.

BLEEDS
12-23-2008, 11:07 AM
We have about 10 million to spend right now.
Wow, that's close - NOT!!!


Where has the other money gone?

Can someone give a rundown of the salary increases and how that ate up Dunn and Griffey's money? Hernandez was a net increase of 2 million if I remember right. Rhodes I don't think was an increase over Affeldt was he?

How much more do Cordero, Arroyo, Harang get this year?

My "officially unofficial" numbers - I use cots and others, and I have placeholders for rookie min salaries where there is nobody slated.



2009
1B L Votto 0.400
2B R BP 4.750
SS R Agon 5.375
3B R EE 1.250 Arb Guess
LF R
CF R
RF L Bruce 0.400
C R Hernand 5.000 (8-3)

C R Hanigan 0.400
OF L Dickers 0.400
OF R Hopper 0.400
IF R Kepp 0.400
IF R Janish 0.400

SP R Harang 11.000
SP R Arroyo 9.500
SP R Volquez 0.400
SP R Cueto 0.400
SP R Owings 0.400

RP R Cordero 12.000
RP R Weather 4.000 Arb Guess
RP L Rhodes 2.000
RP L Lincoln 1.500
RP R Burton 0.400
RP R Bray 0.400
RP R Masset 0.400

61.575


Our payroll for 2008 was $74M and change.
IFF we only kept the payroll the same, we'd have ~$13M to spend on LF & CF at this point, with this roster.

By all accounts we are increasing payroll to $80M+. This came directly from Castellini and Jockety's mouths before.
At $80M we've got about $18.5M to spend.

At $90M - which I conclude we could do and still make money, moreso not lose money, and even MOREso make MO Money 'cause we'd have a winning team on the field - we'd have about $28.5M to spend.

SO, just being conservative, and taking $80M as the figure. We've got $18.5M to spend.

$13M on a FA LF-er, and $5M on a CF-er.
Easily.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

fewfirstchoice
12-23-2008, 12:56 PM
Burrell and Baldelli

UPRedsFan
12-23-2008, 01:10 PM
Burrell or Abreu (whichever will sign for 3 years or less)
+
Baldelli

= playoffs

fewfirstchoice
12-23-2008, 01:13 PM
↑↑↑ totally agree

Bip Roberts
12-23-2008, 01:22 PM
Id rather just lose a bunch of games and save the money than sign either of those guys and lose a bunch of games still.

NeilHamburger
12-23-2008, 01:48 PM
Why, it's not your money. And it's not like owners would then take that money and add it to next years payroll, they became billionaires by doing just the opposite. I've heard a lot of talk from "fruity bob" but seen no action, all he is right now is Carl Linder with a mouth. He's smart, he tells the mark fans what they want to hear, I can see why he's made so much money. I don't believe a word of it though until I see action

Bip Roberts
12-23-2008, 02:11 PM
Because maybe they could spend it the next year?

BLEEDS
12-23-2008, 04:54 PM
Burrell or Abreu (whichever will sign for 3 years or less)
+
Baldelli

= playoffs

That sounds about right, and it should be doable for $18.5M.

Add a Lowe or another solid pitcher, and you're probably talking Division and Pennant Consideration.
That's at a $90M Payroll.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

NeilHamburger
12-23-2008, 06:33 PM
Because maybe they could spend it the next year?

yeah right, i have bridge to sell you if you believe that load.

757690
12-23-2008, 07:20 PM
Wow, that's close - NOT!!!



My "officially unofficial" numbers - I use cots and others, and I have placeholders for rookie min salaries where there is nobody slated.



2009
1B L Votto 0.400
2B R BP 4.750
SS R Agon 5.375
3B R EE 1.250 Arb Guess
LF R
CF R
RF L Bruce 0.400
C R Hernand 5.000 (8-3)

C R Hanigan 0.400
OF L Dickers 0.400
OF R Hopper 0.400
IF R Kepp 0.400
IF R Janish 0.400

SP R Harang 11.000
SP R Arroyo 9.500
SP R Volquez 0.400
SP R Cueto 0.400
SP R Owings 0.400

RP R Cordero 12.000
RP R Weather 4.000 Arb Guess
RP L Rhodes 2.000
RP L Lincoln 1.500
RP R Burton 0.400
RP R Bray 0.400
RP R Masset 0.400

61.575


Our payroll for 2008 was $74M and change.
IFF we only kept the payroll the same, we'd have ~$13M to spend on LF & CF at this point, with this roster.

By all accounts we are increasing payroll to $80M+. This came directly from Castellini and Jockety's mouths before.
At $80M we've got about $18.5M to spend.

At $90M - which I conclude we could do and still make money, moreso not lose money, and even MOREso make MO Money 'cause we'd have a winning team on the field - we'd have about $28.5M to spend.

SO, just being conservative, and taking $80M as the figure. We've got $18.5M to spend.

$13M on a FA LF-er, and $5M on a CF-er.
Easily.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Close....not! Actually it is close, but not accurate.

The $400K minimum is only for rookies. Second year players get around $450K, and some like Volquez will get close to $5K. So while that might not seem like much, when added together (along with an additional $500K that Hernandez gets that you missed (his salary is $8.5 this year), and the $500K that goes to Alonso, since he has a major league contract, the Reds total payroll next year minus a CF and LF is $64.25M. So Bip Robert's guess of around $10M to spend is about right, assuming that payroll does not go up.
I agree with you that the Reds will increase payroll this year, but no one outside the Reds front office knows for sure. I don't remember either Cast or Jocketty using any numbers when discussing 09 Payroll. If you have a link, I would love to be proven wrong.

Captain Hook
12-23-2008, 11:36 PM
Thanks for the info.If the powers that be are men of their words we should be able to sign at least 1 good OF maybe 2.

Bip Roberts
12-23-2008, 11:42 PM
yeah right, i have bridge to sell you if you believe that load.

I mean they wouldnt do it that way but id rather not be locked into some stupid contract if they dont need to be.

Slyder
12-23-2008, 11:55 PM
Instead of Dye anyone think that Bailey plus to Washington for Elijah Dukes or Lastings Milledge plus would be worth it? One head case for another?

BLEEDS
12-24-2008, 10:14 AM
Close....not! Actually it is close, but not accurate.

The $400K minimum is only for rookies. Second year players get around $450K, and some like Volquez will get close to $5K. So while that might not seem like much, when added together (along with an additional $500K that Hernandez gets that you missed (his salary is $8.5 this year), and the $500K that goes to Alonso, since he has a major league contract, the Reds total payroll next year minus a CF and LF is $64.25M. So Bip Robert's guess of around $10M to spend is about right, assuming that payroll does not go up.
I agree with you that the Reds will increase payroll this year, but no one outside the Reds front office knows for sure. I don't remember either Cast or Jocketty using any numbers when discussing 09 Payroll. If you have a link, I would love to be proven wrong.

No problem there, it's been all over the news and media. I did a quick google, and came across this:
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2008/11/13/economy_wont_hinder_reds_payro.html
""
Owner Bob Castellini is committed to a payroll in the mid-$80 million range, a slight uptick from last season’s $73 million, says general manager Walt Jocketty.
""

I am only using the 25 Man Roster, which is the widely accepted way to determine the "Payroll". Every other team has guys with ML contracts, dead money, etc, etc... BUT, when they discuss PAYROLL, they refer to the 25 man roster.

I even only used $80M - not "MID-$80M" which could be $85+.

Either way, we've got AT LEAST $15M to spend, and possibly quite a bit more.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
12-24-2008, 10:22 AM
Oh, and I have Hernandez's salary right. It's $8M for 2009. There is a 2009 option for $8.5M, maybe you got confused?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Hondo
12-24-2008, 10:53 AM
You guys are funny... Pat Burrell? And you hated Adam Dunn?

:rolleyes:

BLEEDS
12-24-2008, 12:37 PM
You guys are funny... Pat Burrell? And you hated Adam Dunn?

:rolleyes:

Not me. I love Production, and OPS. Call me crazy.

Fans and Commentators love BA, they'd get a little more of that from Burrell, plus he's right-handed, so the media would give him a break, even though overall he'd be less productive than Dunn.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfandan
12-24-2008, 12:52 PM
Not me. I love Production, and OPS. Call me crazy. ...

dude you're so crazy you need a strait jacket. :scared: :yikes: :runaway: :runawaycr

Bip Roberts
12-24-2008, 12:55 PM
For a middle of the line up hitter a low .200 ba just doesnt get it done for me.

BLEEDS
12-24-2008, 01:04 PM
dude you're so crazy you need a strait jacket. :scared: :yikes: :runaway: :runawaycr


I will need one of those if Tavares is in CF and hitting leadoff, and we have a "League Average" LF-er hitting between Votto and Bruce.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfandan
12-24-2008, 01:14 PM
If we pick up Taveras and he ends up with more than 200 abs I'll be ok umm sorta. :scared:

Bip Roberts
12-24-2008, 01:19 PM
Tavares is a future HOFer

BLEEDS
12-24-2008, 01:24 PM
If we pick up Taveras and he ends up with more than 200 abs I'll be ok umm sorta. :scared:

Because I'll be in a straight jacket?!?!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfandan
12-24-2008, 01:30 PM
Hey didn't ya know Taveras would be a late bloomer? He has a ton of scary power that he just can't wait to show off. :laugh:

Slyder
12-24-2008, 02:55 PM
Hey didn't ya know Taveras would be a late bloomer? He has a ton of scary power that he just can't wait to show off. :laugh:...

And he's scrappy. Plays the game the right way, he'll make us forget about Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel single handedly.:beerme: