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View Full Version : Tavares Signed, Sealed, and Delivered.. (according to ORG)



Slyder
12-27-2008, 01:45 PM
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...cincinnati.com

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives...n_taveras.html

So says John Fay and hot stove MLB blog....I guess we have our lead-off man now...

We shall see, but I fully expect Duhhhsty's printing press to be working over time to make sure he has 160 lineup sheets with Willy Tavares playing CF and leading off regardless of how much he helps/hurts the offense with his free swinging.

*Please note the sarcasm*

Dude you gotta bat your CF first and your SS second I dont care who they are Dude!

I played with Hank Aaron and he told me a winning recipe requires those two things!

I present to you a Duhhsty Special.

1 Willy Tavares CF
2 AGon/Keppinger SS
3 Jay Bruce RF
4 Brandon Phillips 2b (Because dude you cant have 2 lefties batting back to back, 1 ab might make a team burn an extra pitcher!)
5 Joey Votto 1b
6 Edwin Encarncion 3b
7 Chris Dickerson LF
8 Ramon Hernandez C (dont kid yourself that Hannigan at this point is anything more to Duhhsty than once a week)

HalMorrisRules
12-27-2008, 01:50 PM
The board implodes in 3....2.....

Nasty_Boy
12-27-2008, 01:53 PM
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You have to be kidding! You can't steal 1st base Walt! We would have gotten more production from any Stubbs Dickerson combination! This move blows, and Walt is officially becoming Dustyized!

DTCromer
12-27-2008, 01:54 PM
Why would you have Ramon Hernandez hitting 8th?

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 01:54 PM
I'm pretty much done with this season before it starts.

CesarGeronimo
12-27-2008, 01:56 PM
Walt even says in the Reds' news release that Tavares will bat at the top of the order and play centerfield. This is a huge blow to Walt's credibility, in my view. I'll never root for another team, but I'll pay less attention to the Reds in losing season after losing season as this kind of incompetence continues.

UGADaddy
12-27-2008, 01:56 PM
i wonder if there is any chance of dickerson starting in left field.. even if he does, i dont see him leading off over taveras. if nothing else, it is a major improvement over our last centerfielder, and this gives stubbs a little more time to develop.

Slyder
12-27-2008, 01:57 PM
Why would you have Ramon Hernandez hitting 8th?

Dude you dont want to hit the same handed batter back to back dude. You might make the other team burn an extra pitcher dude!:p:

Nasty_Boy
12-27-2008, 01:57 PM
We are going to have to have Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, and Cueto be lights out along with Cordero, Rhodes, Lincoln, and Burton. This team will not score enough runs to win next season, and they aren't good enough defensively or pitching wise to prevent a significant amount of runs. What a dumb signing! Cory Patterson Part Duex!

Nasty_Boy
12-27-2008, 02:00 PM
i wonder if there is any chance of dickerson starting in left field.. even if he does, i dont see him leading off over taveras. if nothing else, it is a major improvement over our last centerfielder, and this gives stubbs a little more time to develop.


He is worse than Patterson! He's not as good defensively, the OBP is comparable, but Taveras hits for zero power. And not just HR power, he doesn't even hit doubles! Dickerson, Stubbs, and Heisey could produce better than Willy! Hell Norris Hopper is the same player minus a little speed! Willy has to get on base at a better than .350 clip if he's going to be worth anything and he's only done that once.

Nasty_Boy
12-27-2008, 02:03 PM
Anyone that defends this signing is out of their minds! He has 1 positive quality and that is speed... and without getting on base, speed means jack!

I really want to puke! 2 flipping years!!!!! Why? Did we really have to give him 2 years?! What a joke!

CesarGeronimo
12-27-2008, 02:04 PM
One really scary thing is how Walt talks in the Reds' announcement of this deal about Tavares giving the Reds the speed they need at the top of the lineup. Sounds just like Dusty.

So is Walt giving Dusty what he "needs" in his lineup? Was LaRussa the brains, the strategist in St. Louis, not Walt? If we've got Dusty playing much of a role in driving the ship in Cincy, we are screwed.

UGADaddy
12-27-2008, 02:17 PM
He is worse than Patterson! He's not as good defensively, the OBP is comparable, but Taveras hits for zero power. And not just HR power, he doesn't even hit doubles! Dickerson, Stubbs, and Heisey could produce better than Willy! Hell Norris Hopper is the same player minus a little speed! Willy has to get on base at a better than .350 clip if he's going to be worth anything and he's only done that once.

Their OBP's are not even close to comparable. patterson career OBP= .291 and Taveras= .331. Taveras is also a better career defender if you look at range factor. Taveras also steals more bases. But, patterson does hit for more power, and boy are we gonna miss his 10 bombs last year!

Bottom line, its not even close. Taveras>>>>>>>> patterson

Mitri
12-27-2008, 02:18 PM
Yeah, I could actually swallow this this deal if I knew he'd be down in the 8 or even 9 spot. But he'll see 500 abs at the leadoff spot, making outs like none other.

At least they're getting serious about the defense. If this deal is coupled with a Bob Abreu signing it'll make a bit more sense. Abreu and a SS with a decent OB% would actually counter Taveras' ineptitude with the bat. But I have no confidence that this will happen.

I will give my final verdict when the offseason is over. My feeling is Walt gets another OF and is done.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 02:20 PM
Catcher bats 8 under Dusty Baker. Just like CF and SS are 1/2

Mitri
12-27-2008, 02:22 PM
Any numbers yet? This could be even uglier than it looks.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 02:23 PM
2 years 20 million

texasdave
12-27-2008, 02:23 PM
If players like Willy Taveras and Ramon Hernandez are on Jocketty's shopping list then why even bother making out a list? Seriously. Just put all the available players at whichever positions you are looking to fill into a hat and draw names. Walt couldn't possibly do at any worse than he has done, could he? God I hope I am wrong and Taveras and Hernandez have career seasons. I don't see how this team avoids another 90 loss season unless the starting five sell their souls.

SidneySlicker
12-27-2008, 02:27 PM
CesarGeronimo would you like to see Cesar Geronimo's stats while with the Reds?
YEAR TEAM LG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA
1972 CIN NL 120 255 32 70 9 7 4 29 24 64 2 7 .275
1973 CIN NL 139 324 35 68 14 3 4 33 23 74 5 5 .210
1974 CIN NL 150 474 73 133 17 8 7 54 46 96 9 5 .281
1975 CIN NL 148 501 69 129 25 5 6 53 48 97 13 5 .257
1976 CIN NL 149 486 59 149 24 11 2 49 56 95 22 5 .307
1977 CIN NL 149 492 54 131 22 4 10 52 35 89 10 4 .266
1978 CIN NL 122 296 28 67 15 1 5 27 43 67 8 3 .226
1979 CIN NL 123 356 38 85 17 4 4 38 37 56 1 1 .239

I think it's rather hypocritical to knock Taveras for his offensive output when the player whom you use as your moniker was no better offensively than Taveras in one of the best offensive lineups in baseball history. Did his .261 BA during his years with the Reds make him less valuable to the team?

People I'm not saying this is or isn't going to be a good thing, but you need to get off the ledge.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 02:28 PM
Did Geronimo lead off?

jmac
12-27-2008, 02:31 PM
I am not a big fan of this move but I will say Walt Jocketty didnt get where he is by following fans perceptions.
Translated= I will wait and see what else he does. He has repeatedly said, he wants a power bat in middle of lineup and I believe he has another deal or signing up his sleeve.

Mitri
12-27-2008, 02:32 PM
I thought the Hernandez signing was a nice move. Filled a need and cut chaff from the roster without spending too much.

I think the message he is sending is 2010 or bust. If we get a few career years from guys like Taveras, Gonzalez and Hernandez, along with all the right stars aligning with the core of the squad, this team could get lucky and compete for a playoff spot. But Jocketty obviously isn't going out and spending piles of cash to compete for this year.

He's throwing bargains at the wall and praying that it sticks.

Any guesses as to what's next?

TeamSelig
12-27-2008, 02:35 PM
This wouldn't be TOO bad of a signing if Dusty wouldn't send him out there every game in the lead off spot.

Orodle
12-27-2008, 02:39 PM
1. Taveras is not as bad as Corey Patterson. He did have a bad OBP last year but hes usually above that .308 (career .331).

2. I would be happy with this signing if Taveras was near the end of the order and Dickerson was at the top......probably not gunna happen though.

3. No reason to flip out over this signing. The Reds needed another outfielder no matter what.

SidneySlicker
12-27-2008, 02:39 PM
He's throwing bargains at the wall and praying that it sticks.


Agreed but isn't that what most small market teams have been relegated to doing now a days? It's a matter of building a strong farm system and spraying in the right guys to fill in the rest. Is Taveras the right guy? I don't know. At this point I have no other choice, but to wait and see.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 02:41 PM
1. Taveras is not as bad as Corey Patterson. He did have a bad OBP last year but hes usually above that .308 (career .331).

2. I would be happy with this signing if Taveras was near the end of the order and Dickerson was at the top......probably not gunna happen though.

3. No reason to flip out over this signing. The Reds needed another outfielder no matter what.

2 year deal with Dusty running the show makes this a terrible signing.

Let me ask do you think a .370 OBP or the .308 OBP from Taveras is more likely.

UGADaddy
12-27-2008, 02:46 PM
2 year deal with Dusty running the show makes this a terrible signing.

Let me ask do you think a .370 OBP or the .308 OBP from Taveras is more likely.

i dont think either are likely. i expect .330-.340

CesarGeronimo
12-27-2008, 02:46 PM
CesarGeronimo would you like to see Cesar Geronimo's stats while with the Reds?
YEAR TEAM LG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA
1972 CIN NL 120 255 32 70 9 7 4 29 24 64 2 7 .275
1973 CIN NL 139 324 35 68 14 3 4 33 23 74 5 5 .210
1974 CIN NL 150 474 73 133 17 8 7 54 46 96 9 5 .281
1975 CIN NL 148 501 69 129 25 5 6 53 48 97 13 5 .257
1976 CIN NL 149 486 59 149 24 11 2 49 56 95 22 5 .307
1977 CIN NL 149 492 54 131 22 4 10 52 35 89 10 4 .266
1978 CIN NL 122 296 28 67 15 1 5 27 43 67 8 3 .226
1979 CIN NL 123 356 38 85 17 4 4 38 37 56 1 1 .239

I think it's rather hypocritical to knock Taveras for his offensive output when the player whom you use as your moniker was no better offensively than Taveras in one of the best offensive lineups in baseball history. Did his .261 BA during his years with the Reds make him less valuable to the team?

People I'm not saying this is or isn't going to be a good thing, but you need to get off the ledge.

It's not hypocritical at all. Cesar Geronimo won four gold gloves and batted near the bottom of the order. He was a great center fielder for a powerful hitting team.

Taveras is not a great centerfielder, but if he was batting near the bottom of the order I'd have fewer problems with it. What stinks about this deal is the cluelessness of the Reds to pick this guy up to bat leadoff. Sure, the batting order isn't the most important element of who wins or loses. But picking up Taveras to bat first shows that the Reds either don't know what they're doing or don't have enough money to put together a winning team.

I'm sick of bad baseball in Cincinnati. Willy Taveras is a bad baseball player who will now leadoff. More of the same. I don't think that's an overreaction.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 02:46 PM
if you cant slug over .300 in coors the .308 is probably pretty close to what I expect.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 02:48 PM
BTW guys its going to be Taveras and Gonzales at the top of the order. For those who dont know what that means it means the Reds are going to start every game with no on and 2 outs :laugh:

UGADaddy
12-27-2008, 02:48 PM
well his average obp is .331 so i would say its closer to that

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 02:49 PM
its that average with a .370 year in there in which he had a .370 BABIP.

Nasty_Boy
12-27-2008, 02:50 PM
The 70's was a different era of pro baseball... you can't win the same way. Parks are smaller, which makes power more of a neccessity. Taveras is a terrible player with terrible career stats (except 07)... this is a waste of money and position on a player that brings very little to the table.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 02:51 PM
his 07 isnt even that good :laugh:

Griffey012
12-27-2008, 03:10 PM
Tavares stole 68/75 bases successfully which means roughly of his 138 times he trotted to first base by way of a single, walk, or any other means he turned that into a double 49% of the time. Someone with that kind of ability to steal bases really puts a lot of pressure on the opposing pitcher. Yes, his OBP and yada yada is not the greatest in the world, but we seem to be forgetting that last year his .308 obp would put him right there in the mix with Keppinger, Phillips, and Bruce.

Also, does anyone remember 2005 when the White Sox won the world series. The table was set day in and day out by Scott Podsednik, who hit an astonishing 0 home runs and 25 rbi's while stealing 59 bases out of 82 attempts, while playing average defense and OPSing .700. All I am trying to say is that a speedy leadoff guy cannot simply be valued in terms of offensive production, there are many other factors that cannot be quantitatively defined such as the pressure on opposing pitchers when on base, the energy he can bring to the lineup, and so on. He does not compare to CPatt, good riddence. I'll put my full trusting faith in Walt Jocketty, after all he did run the Cards to 2 world series while in the same span we were sitting at home with a losing record year in and year out. We get a gift of a GM and people still tell him he does not know how to run a team.

Oxilon
12-27-2008, 03:15 PM
Hilirious. People are really overreacting to this deal and it's going to be really funny when this is going to come back and bite everybody slamming it in the arse.

Taveras just turned 27, meaning he is entering his prime. So right there you can diminish the possibility of him declining due to age and since he's been relatively healthy his entire career so don't expect that to change either.

First, look at him from a defensive standpoint. He's got range and speed in CF that we haven't seen since, well, Corey Patterson. But, ignoring Patterson's bat, he was a plus defensively.

Secondly, look at his skills on the basepath. 68 steals last season, which is damn impressive. I know the SABRs won't really acknowledge that since a SB is not worth the risk of an out, but nevertheless, he's definitely a plus on the basepaths.

Now, batting. Is the second-coming of Willie Mays. No, he's not even the second coming of a young Mike Cameron. But he's shown he still has something to bring to the table. Since he's obviously going to be leading off, we can expect an OBP around .330 give or take. Nothing great, but he should be a decent tablesetter. And I'm not going to get caught up in his 2008 stats. The Rockies, as a whole, were just not that great of team. Troy was hurt, Atkins and Holliday weren't up to there usual selves either. Taveras has shown to be respectable in 3 of his 4 years as a pro. This very well could end up being a solid signing for the Reds.

And another thing, if not Taveras, who else? Dickerson? The guy had 100 ABs and were already going to lock him down in CF for the Reds immediate future? Extremely small sample size, especially considering how he was never thought of much as a prospect. And we can't forget about his durability, or lack there of. It's an obvious issue that the Reds should be concerned about. Leave him on the bench, which I think would be the best for the Reds.

And Baldelli? Another serious injury risk. I don't buy that report that came out saying he was misdiagnosed and can play everyday. Talk about trying to get more for your contract.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 03:19 PM
Hilirious. People are really overreacting to this deal and it's going to be really funny when this is going to come back and bite everybody slamming it in the arse.

Taveras just turned 27, meaning he is entering his prime. So right there you can diminish the possibility of him declining due to age and since he's been relatively healthy his entire career so don't expect that to change either.

First, look at him from a defensive standpoint. He's got range and speed in CF that we haven't seen since, well, Corey Patterson. But, ignoring Patterson's bat, he was a plus defensively.

Secondly, look at his skills on the basepath. 68 steals last season, which is damn impressive. I know the SABRs won't really acknowledge that since a SB is not worth the risk of an out, but nevertheless, he's definitely a plus on the basepaths.

Now, batting. Is the second-coming of Willie Mays. No, he's not even the second coming of a young Mike Cameron. But he's shown he still has something to bring to the table. Since he's obviously going to be leading off, we can expect an OBP around .330 give or take. Nothing great, but he should be a decent tablesetter. And I'm not going to get caught up in his 2008 stats. The Rockies, as a whole, were just not that great of team. Troy was hurt, Atkins and Holliday weren't up to there usual selves either. Taveras has shown to be respectable in 3 of his 4 years as a pro. This very well could end up being a solid signing for the Reds.

And another thing, if not Taveras, who else? Dickerson? The guy had 100 ABs and were already going to lock him down in CF for the Reds immediate future? Extremely small sample size, especially considering how he was never thought of much as a prospect. And we can't forget about his durability, or lack there of. It's an obvious issue that the Reds should be concerned about. Leave him on the bench, which I think would be the best for the Reds.

And Baldelli? Another serious injury risk. I don't buy that report that came out saying he was misdiagnosed and can play everyday. Talk about trying to get more for your contract.
Replace Taveras with Patterson in this quote and just laugh until the day ends.

Carolina Red
12-27-2008, 03:28 PM
Is this supposed to be our "Right Handed Power Hitter"? You've got to be kidding me. I see another year of below .500 ball.

Oxilon
12-27-2008, 03:29 PM
Replace Taveras with Patterson in this quote and just laugh until the day ends.

Patterson could only wet dream to have Taveras' OBP and SB skills. One's a Burger King value meal and the other is rotten Chinese food. Neither may be fine cuisuine, but atleast one's seviceable. Nice try though.

WildcatFan
12-27-2008, 03:40 PM
I don't mind having Taveras on the team. The worst part of the move is that it takes Dickerson — who should be the center fielder of the future — out of center and moves him either to left or to the fourth outfielder spot. Taveras as a fifth outfielder/pinch runner is a good weapon. Taveras as a CFer/leadoff man is a train wreck. Here's hoping that:

A. Taveras proves us all wrong and has a nice .340 OBP, 50 steal year

or

B. Dusty recognizes the problem early and relegates Taveras to the bench

I'm not tearing my allegiance away like so many Redszoners say they're going to do after a move like this. That's childish and silly, and you all will be around next time to complain about a move you don't like. Keep the whining to yourself. Walt Jocketty will not sign Manny Ramirez because you threaten to stop watching his team on TV.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 03:47 PM
Patterson could only wet dream to have Taveras' OBP and SB skills. One's a Burger King value meal and the other is rotten Chinese food. Neither may be fine cuisuine, but atleast one's seviceable. Nice try though.

and Taveras could only dream about pattersons D and actual offensive value

TheNext44
12-27-2008, 03:50 PM
This only is palatable if the REds can sign a big bat for LF, and have Dickerson and Taveras Platoon in CF. I doubt that is what will happen, but if it does, then the Reds can live with Taveras and his .300 OBP and .300 SLG getting around 250 AB's in CF.

However, if they don't and expect Dickerson in LF, I fully expect Dickerson to bat 2nd and EE 4th. This notion that Dusty only bats the SS 2nd is bunk. He does most of the time, but his real MO is batting two speedsters at the top. And I think even he has realized that Phillips can't at cleanup. That is why the Reds have looked so hard at finding a cleanup hitter.

Still, all in all, this stinks!

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 03:53 PM
Jocketty said the Reds remain in pursuit of a left fielder, “And we’re still trying to sign Jerry Hairston Jr. and he can play some out there in left.”

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 03:55 PM
Minor league lines
Dickerson
.260 .360 .415 .775

Taveras
.288 .355 .361 .716

TheNext44
12-27-2008, 04:02 PM
I guess this is a good way to test Saber rule that speed does not produce runs. If the Reds can score 750 or more runs (or be better than league average) with a lineup based on speed like this one:

Taveras
Dickerson/Hairston
Bruce
EE
Votto
Phillips
Hernandez
Gonzo/Kepp

Then the old school guys might be able to make an argument that speed can produce runs. I seriously doubt that will happen, in fact I am very confident that it won't, but at least it will be interesting to see how it does produce. I just wish this experiment was done by another team.

Griffey012
12-27-2008, 04:06 PM
Is this supposed to be our "Right Handed Power Hitter"? You've got to be kidding me. I see another year of below .500 ball.

Look at it this way, did we upgrade at catcher, Yes. Did we upgrade the bullpen a bit with Rhodes, Yes. Did we upgrade in CF, Yes. Is our young talent going to further develop and get better, Yes.

Is this our right handed power bat? No. How can you not believe that Jocketty knows what he is doing with his past track record?

CesarGeronimo
12-27-2008, 04:06 PM
First, look at him from a defensive standpoint. He's got range and speed in CF that we haven't seen since, well, Corey Patterson. But, ignoring Patterson's bat, he was a plus defensively.


Besides the fact that he will leadoff and should not, this is the other major problem for me. Willy, despite all his speed, is not a good centerfielder. It's true that he'll run down some balls that others can't, but he's also known for taking bad routes to balls and getting a bad jump on them.

Offensively and defensively, he's not a smart player. On offense, he's too aggressive early in the count and ends up striking out too often by flailing at curveballs out of the zone. Defensively, he doesn't use his speed to full capacity because he doesn't judge the ball well enough.

He's another guy who's bad at the fundamentals of baseball on a team that's been full of such guys in recent years. The exception, of course, is that he's a great bunter, but teams are well aware of that and set their defenses accordingly.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 04:07 PM
Look at it this way, did we upgrade at catcher, Yes. Did we upgrade the bullpen a bit with Rhodes, Yes. Did we upgrade in CF, Yes. Is our young talent going to further develop and get better, Yes.

Is this our right handed power bat? No. How can you not believe that Jocketty knows what he is doing with his past track record?

How did we upgrade center?

TheNext44
12-27-2008, 04:17 PM
This is an interesting tidbit from Walt in Hal's article on the signing.


About his fallen batting average and on base percentage in 2008, Jocketty said, “Jamie Quirk believes Willy got away from his game plan. He needs to bunt more and keep the ball on the ground and get some infield hits. I don’t know if he tried to hit home runs, or what, but Jamie think he changed his approach and that we can get him back on track.”

The problem with that is the Wayne said the same thing about Patterson last year when they signed him. But if it is true, and I have already made clear my opinion that it is not and that Taveras is done as a hitter in the majors, but if it is true and Taveras can get back to a .330 OBP, with his speed, that really is that not terrible. Not very good, but around league average for CF in terms of run production when you correctly factor in his speed. The Reds could still compete if, and that is a big if, Taveras can OBP his career numbers and not last years.

schmidty622
12-27-2008, 04:30 PM
They really need to follow this up with a Burrell, Abreu, or Bradley signing.

I hope it's not followed up with a Baldelli deal.

jmac
12-27-2008, 04:34 PM
They really need to follow this up with a Burrell, Abreu, or Bradley signing.

I hope it's not followed up with a Baldelli deal.
Jocketty stated from the outset, he wanted to address catcher, lead-off and power bat.
He has addressed two of three regardless of opinion on the deals.
He could prove me wrong but my opinion is he has more in mind than Baldeli as far as power part. As you said...I hope so anyway. ;)

TheNext44
12-27-2008, 04:43 PM
Another interesting tidbit from C. Trent's blog. Bill James projects Taveras to post a .335 OBP 337 SLG and steal 56 bases. James projects that he will create 62 runs. (I would project those #'s to create around 77 runs in 600 ABs, but I value SB more than most Saber guys)
If Taveras can put up those numbers that would be a huge improvement over Patterson last year, who would have only produced around 47 runs if he had 600 AB's.
Now, again, I don't think Taveras can do that, but if he can, I think the Reds can contend if they also get a big bat for LF.

CesarGeronimo
12-27-2008, 04:50 PM
Look at it this way, did we upgrade at catcher, Yes. Did we upgrade the bullpen a bit with Rhodes, Yes. Did we upgrade in CF, Yes. Is our young talent going to further develop and get better, Yes.

Is this our right handed power bat? No. How can you not believe that Jocketty knows what he is doing with his past track record?

It's pretty questionable about whether replacing Affeldt with Rhodes will be an upgrade. Rhodes won't give the Reds many innings. He threw 35 innings last year at age 38, preceded by 38, 43 and 45 innings the three years before that.

Affeldt threw 78 innings last year at age 29. Rhodes is a good pickup, but Affeldt was a significant loss.

Emin3mShady07
12-27-2008, 04:57 PM
Another interesting tidbit from C. Trent's blog. Bill James projects Taveras to post a .335 OBP 337 SLG and steal 56 bases. James projects that he will create 62 runs. (I would project those #'s to create around 77 runs in 600 ABs, but I value SB more than most Saber guys)
If Taveras can put up those numbers that would be a huge improvement over Patterson last year, who would have only produced around 47 runs if he had 600 AB's.
Now, again, I don't think Taveras can do that, but if he can, I think the Reds can contend if they also get a big bat for LF.

1. Why on god's green earth would you give a guy like taveras, this really has nothing to do with your post but I wanted to say it and didn't feel like posting twice.

2. Here is my issue with the signing, Could Willy Taveras be an upgrade over corey patterson? Yes, he could. So he could make the team better from what it was last year. However, Chris Dickerson could easily be a better player than Taveras. So, why sign Taveras? The only reason I can see is that he is a RH hitter that could platoon with Dickerson, but again, why sign him with other, better options available, ie Baldelli, Hariston, Stubbs, etc? It does not make sense

brachial pleXUs
12-27-2008, 05:00 PM
Let the whining begin! Like Adam Dunn, if we recognize what he is, and don't have ridiculous expectations, there's a lot that he can bring to the table--certainly more than Corey Patterson. Out of curiosity, where would you bat Willy, and who would lead off?

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 05:01 PM
I simply just wouldnt have signed him. Problem solved.

TheNext44
12-27-2008, 05:14 PM
1. Why on god's green earth would you give a guy like taveras, this really has nothing to do with your post but I wanted to say it and didn't feel like posting twice.

2. Here is my issue with the signing, Could Willy Taveras be an upgrade over corey patterson? Yes, he could. So he could make the team better from what it was last year. However, Chris Dickerson could easily be a better player than Taveras. So, why sign Taveras? The only reason I can see is that he is a RH hitter that could platoon with Dickerson, but again, why sign him with other, better options available, ie Baldelli, Hariston, Stubbs, etc? It does not make sense

Completely agree. Nail on the the head.

To be honest, as a die hard Reds fan, I am just trying to rationalize this as best I can so it doesn't ruin my Holidays too much. lol.

DannyB
12-27-2008, 05:16 PM
Did Geronimo lead off?
No it was that Rose guy.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 05:17 PM
No it was that Rose guy.

thanks for someone proving my point :o

brachial pleXUs
12-27-2008, 05:29 PM
I know you can't please everyone, but I'm having a hard time understanding how every move this organization makes can tick off an entire website of its most devoted fans. Everyone is so cynical you'd think we were all Bengals fans;)

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 05:31 PM
Because they continue to do stupid things and find worse players to replace their worst players :o

TheNext44
12-27-2008, 05:33 PM
Here is one tidbit from Fay of good news about this signing:

Walt Jocketty on the Willy Taveras signing:

--
"He fills a couple of needs. He gives us very good defense in center field, and he's potentially a very good leadoff man."

Jocketty said in order to do that Taveras has to get his on-base percentage close to .367 like it was in the 2007, rather than the .308 it was last season: "He needs to get back to way he was swinging the bat and getting on base a couple of years ago. Jamie Quirk, who's with us now was with Willy in Colorado, feels like Willy can get back to that."

I am being hopeful in assuming that this means that if Taveras can't get his OBP to .360, then he will ride the bench. Please let that be true.

CesarGeronimo
12-27-2008, 05:39 PM
I wasn't ticked off by the Hernandez move at catcher, the Rhodes signing or any other move so far this off-season, but this is just a bad move. Bad offensively and not very good defensively. If the Reds made good moves, i.e. moves that led to a winning team at least occasionally, they wouldn't tick off their fans.

And for those who optimistically believe that Tavares will be a platoon player, check out how he responded last season when his playing time was cut: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/73965-willy-stay-or-willy-go-taveras-future-in-doubt


Taveras commonly found himself in clutch situations, only to find himself heading back to the dugout after striking out looking. The breaking ball was the biggest hardship for Taveras.

Early in the season, Taveras was put on the bench in favor of Scott Podsednik, and it was widely reported the Taveras was outspoken in his disapproval of the decision. This behavior resulted in more than one closed-door meeting with manager Clint Hurdle, who let him know that he would need to take a better approach at the plate in order to win his spot back.

Not only did Taveras struggle at the plate, he often did not use his speed wisely in the outfield. He routinely overran balls that hit off the fence and seemed to take bad routes to many flyballs.

Handofdeath
12-27-2008, 05:41 PM
The Reds were one of 6 teams that wanted Taveras. The Reds and the Nationals are the only teams from those 6 who had a losing record in 2008. The others were:

1. Marlins
2. White Sox
3. Yankees
4. Red Sox

From 1996-2007 one of those 4 teams were in the World Series 10 out of 12 seasons. Of those 10 seasons one of the above 4 teams won it 9 times. The two seasons that no World Series appearances were made by the above 4 teams was 2002 and 2006. Remember who won it in 2006? I'll bet you do. It was the Cardinals whose GM was off course...

Walt Jocketty

Griffey012
12-27-2008, 05:55 PM
How did we upgrade center?

Anything was an upgrade over Corey Patterson's 366 AB's from CF.

TheNext44
12-27-2008, 05:57 PM
The Reds were one of 6 teams that wanted Taveras. The Reds and the Nationals are the only teams from those 6 who had a losing record in 2008. The others were:

1. Marlins
2. White Sox
3. Yankees
4. Red Sox

From 1996-2007 one of those 4 teams were in the World Series 10 out of 12 seasons. Of those 10 seasons one of the above 4 teams won it 9 times. The two seasons that no World Series appearances were made by the above 4 teams was 2002 and 2006. Remember who won it in 2006? I'll bet you do. It was the Cardinals whose GM was off course...

Walt Jocketty

All those other teams have CF and wanted Taveras as a 5th outfielder. He could serve a purpose as a PR off the bench and 25th man on the roster. But he simply is not an everyday CF.

Bip Roberts
12-27-2008, 05:58 PM
Is Tavares 500+ ab going to be better than what we had in CF last year? I seriously doubt it.

Griffey012
12-27-2008, 05:58 PM
It's pretty questionable about whether replacing Affeldt with Rhodes will be an upgrade. Rhodes won't give the Reds many innings. He threw 35 innings last year at age 38, preceded by 38, 43 and 45 innings the three years before that.

Affeldt threw 78 innings last year at age 29. Rhodes is a good pickup, but Affeldt was a significant loss.

Good point, I managed to forget about the loss of Affeldt who was definitely a key part of the pen. The one thing Rhodes does bring us that we sort of lacked last season was the one guy who can consistently shut down the big time opposing lefties. Hopefully Bray will be able to step up into Affeldt's role next season.

WildcatFan
12-27-2008, 06:13 PM
I know you can't please everyone, but I'm having a hard time understanding how every move this organization makes can tick off an entire website of its most devoted fans. Everyone is so cynical you'd think we were all Bengals fans;)

As a Bengals fan, I greatly resent that statement. There could be nothing worse in the sports world than being a Bengals fan.

redsfandan
12-27-2008, 06:13 PM
All those other teams have CF and wanted Taveras as a 5th outfielder. He could serve a purpose as a PR off the bench and 25th man on the roster. But he simply is not an everyday CF.

True, Boston and the yankees would've wanted him as a backup. But he probably would've been a stopgap for Florida until Maybin was ready to be a full time player and I bet Taveras would have had 400+ abs for the white sox easily. I won't even try to understand what the Nats were trying to do.

Griffey012
12-27-2008, 06:16 PM
Is Tavares 500+ ab going to be better than what we had in CF last year? I seriously doubt it.

I would all but guarantee it, last year the collectively manned CF consisting of Dickerson, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Jerry Hairston, and Corey Patterson combined to hit .240/.286/.379 while playing CF. I left Jay Bruce out of the equation because he looks to be solidified into RF and thus is not a viable option for CF this season.

Collective Group from 08
.240/.286/.379 OPS = .665

Willy Taveras's worst season in 08
.250/.308/.296 OPS = .604

Taveras's Career Averages
.283/.331/.337 OPS = .668


Sign me up for Taveras instead of more of what we had last year.

redsfandan
12-27-2008, 06:21 PM
Collective Group from 08
.240/.286/.379 OPS = .665

Taveras's Career Averages
.283/.331/.337 OPS = .668


Sign me up for Taveras instead of more of what we had last year.

Isn't that more of the same?

Aces Wild
12-27-2008, 06:26 PM
This team is truly frustrating, because they continue to make the same stupid mistakes. I went into this off season fairly excited, because I thought no way we could be worse than last year. Alas, I was wrong.

Without a serious upgrade still to come, I have a hard time believing this team can win more than 70 games this year..........a new year, but the same old crappy story.

CesarGeronimo
12-27-2008, 06:38 PM
From John Fay's blog:


Here's a little bit of Willy Taveras from a conference call (I believe he was in the security line at the Miami airport at the time):

--"It's a young team. I think I fit in well. I'll come in and play hard. I'm happy to play for Dusty (Baker)."

--"It's an opportunity to play every day, no matter what happened the day before."
--"A couple of team were interested. The best situation was with the Reds. i really like playing in the Central division. I feel lucky to play for Dusty."
--"I got a call from agent (shortly after he was non-tendered by Colorado). He said the Reds were really interested."

--On Jamie Quirk, Reds special assistant: "Jamie knows me really well. He always tells me to stay on top of my game. He knows what kind of talent I have."

--On Dusty Baker: "I've heard from plenty of guys that he lets you do what you do well. I'm looking forward to playing for him."


So it sounds like Taveras picked Cincy because he's been told he'll get to start everyday for the Reds (unlike other teams). The only likely positive from this is that Dusty may hang himself by sticking with Taveras at leadoff even if he struggles as badly as many here fear that he will.

Maldez
12-27-2008, 06:42 PM
If the Reds wanted a speedy CF who can lead-off, why not just keep Ryan Freel?

Aces Wild
12-27-2008, 06:53 PM
If the Reds wanted a speedy CF who can lead-off, why not just keep Ryan Freel?


Or just stick with Dickerson, and see what he could do. Honestly, does anybody think that Dickerson would have flamed out any worse than Willie is going to do??

The Reds motto should be........"if at 1st you don't succeed, keep bludgeoning your head against the wall". They continue to live in the 1960's in their approach to the game. This is the biggest reason that the names change (ie Patterson, Womack, Willie T), but the results stay the same.

NorrisHopper30
12-27-2008, 07:01 PM
Give this signing some time, I like it for now! The negativity on this board towards Taveras is very uncalled for IMO.

reds77
12-27-2008, 07:12 PM
I'm supportive of the move considering the Reds can't (or don't) throw around the big dollars to the big names. I think Dickerson will turn out to be another player that Reds fans over value- Chris Stynes, Sean Casey, Aaron Boone, Jon Nunnally, Ryan Freel. Sure, some of them are solid major league players, they made the big leagues, but Reds fans have this tendency to overrate certain players, I put Dickerson among them.

When Taveras gets on base, let him run, run, and run to see if he can put pressue on the defense and cause some excitement for the Reds.

Handofdeath
12-27-2008, 07:45 PM
If the Reds wanted a speedy CF who can lead-off, why not just keep Ryan Freel?

Because the very first game of the season he'll either blow his hamstring out leaving the batters box or he'll kill Jay Bruce.

NorrisHopper30
12-27-2008, 07:47 PM
Because the very first game of the season he'll either blow his hamstring out leaving the batters box or he'll kill Jay Bruce.

Because Freel has speed, not baserunning or awareness skills. Taveras has base running, defensive awareness and speed - which is why he will be more productive than Freel or Patterson.

BurgervilleBuck
12-27-2008, 08:09 PM
Give this signing some time, I like it for now! The negativity on this board towards Taveras is very uncalled for IMO.
They have nothing better to do on a Saturday afternoon. ;)

Kingspoint
12-27-2008, 08:31 PM
Idiots, idiots, idiots. It's got to be Dusty Baker. He must be obsessed with having a leadoff batter who can't get on base.

Rotoworld sticks to pointing out the obvious with their comments about players. Here's what they had to say about this signing:

Whether it's Dan O'Brien, Wayne Krivsky or now Walt Jocketty, Reds GMs seem to love handing out multiyear deals to true mediocrities. Score a point for Taveras' agent, who somehow convinced the Reds to go to two years after no one was willing to trade a minor prospect to the Rockies for him just a couple of weeks ago. What makes it especially silly in this case is that Taveras would have been under control for 2010 even if he had signed a one-year deal. He has just 4+ years of service time and wouldn't have been eligible for free agency unless he was non-tendered again. Taveras almost certainly will act as the Reds' everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter. Chris Dickerson, who had 17 extra-base hits in 102 at-bats last season (Taveras had 18 in 479), is still an option in left at the moment, but the Reds probably aren't through. Dec. 27 - 2:29 pm et

Kingspoint
12-27-2008, 08:34 PM
Forget about any post season hopes for this club in 2009 or 2010. As long as Taveras is on the club, he'll get enough at-bats to ruin both seasons.

My opinion of Jockety just went from very good to below average, or from a "B" to a "D".

Kingspoint
12-27-2008, 08:37 PM
The Reds were one of 6 teams that wanted Taveras. The Reds and the Nationals are the only teams from those 6 who had a losing record in 2008. The others were:

1. Marlins
2. White Sox
3. Yankees
4. Red Sox

From 1996-2007 one of those 4 teams were in the World Series 10 out of 12 seasons. Of those 10 seasons one of the above 4 teams won it 9 times. The two seasons that no World Series appearances were made by the above 4 teams was 2002 and 2006. Remember who won it in 2006? I'll bet you do. It was the Cardinals whose GM was off course...

Walt Jocketty

Nobody wanted Taveras. There is no proof of that. The only proof is that anyone could have had him for a song 2 weeks ago if they wanted him, and there were no takers.

NorrisHopper30
12-27-2008, 08:43 PM
Forget about any post season hopes for this club in 2009 or 2010. As long as Taveras is on the club, he'll get enough at-bats to ruin both seasons.

My opinion of Jockety just went from very good to below average, or from a "B" to a "D".
Good to know we can write off two seasons with one signing :thumbup:

Walt Jocketty knows what he is doing, there is a reason he is the GM and not you.

Newman4
12-27-2008, 09:18 PM
I don't feel as negative as everyone else about this signing. In fact, provided he can get on base at a decent rate, I think he can contribute quite effectively. Look, he's never going to hit home runs. He provides speed on the bases when needed, steals bases about as good as anyone and plays good defense. He is what he is. If you guys listen to the guys on ORG then no one is good enough. Sometimes it is more about how the pieces work together rather than the sum of the individual parts. Called synergy I believe. It would be nice to be the Yankees and have money to buy whatever you want...but they still finished third last year in their division. Right now, Walt is trying to piece together a winner. If he gets the RH bat in the middle of the order then the lineup looks pretty decent.

On another note, judging by his comments apparently the Reds are going with AGonz at SS.

I(heart)Freel
12-27-2008, 09:19 PM
Anyone else think this signing opens up the trade lines for Dickerson? Perhaps he was needed bait to get the RH LF the Reds seek.

I don't mind this signing nearly as much as others on this board. Everyone is so d*mned short sighted. He had a pedestrian 2008 season in OBP, but he still stole more effectively than any player in the modern era. Maybe Walt/the Reds think he's better than last year's number would have everyone else believe?

2007 OBP: 367
2008 OBP: 308

Is he as bad as 08? Is he as good as 07? I'd be willing to gamble on the mean.

BTW: Anyone see the details for this deal, dollars-wise?

LouisvilleCARDS
12-27-2008, 09:23 PM
Figured when I read this on ESPN's bottom line, that coming over here would be one big whine fest. Personally, I like this deal. A good defender, and speedster on the basepads. So that means he's basically better than both Ken Griffey Jr and Corey Patterson that last year got how many at bats? For those crying, I mean, didn't this guy play on the 2007 Rockies World Series team? I'm surpised his death touch didn't affect them that year. We may go after another outfielder yet depending on the terms of the deal, so I wouldn't jump off the bridge yet for those upset over this.

redsfandan
12-27-2008, 09:41 PM
Idiots, idiots, idiots. It's got to be Dusty Baker. He must be obsessed with having a leadoff batter who can't get on base.

Rotoworld sticks to pointing out the obvious with their comments about players. Here's what they had to say about this signing:

Whether it's Dan O'Brien, Wayne Krivsky or now Walt Jocketty, Reds GMs seem to love handing out multiyear deals to true mediocrities. Score a point for Taveras' agent, who somehow convinced the Reds to go to two years after no one was willing to trade a minor prospect to the Rockies for him just a couple of weeks ago. What makes it especially silly in this case is that Taveras would have been under control for 2010 even if he had signed a one-year deal. He has just 4+ years of service time and wouldn't have been eligible for free agency unless he was non-tendered again. Taveras almost certainly will act as the Reds' everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter. Chris Dickerson, who had 17 extra-base hits in 102 at-bats last season (Taveras had 18 in 479), is still an option in left at the moment, but the Reds probably aren't through. Dec. 27 - 2:29 pm et
Ya know, I still check Rotoworld occasionally but their opinions are still just opinions. Their main problem was with a 2-year deal for Taveras. Maybe this would mean that arbitration for Taveras after '09 would be avoided IF they decided to keep him for 2010 and we still don't know how much Taveras will cost us yet. Until the terms are known I don't think it's fair to say that a 2 year deal was such a terrible move.


Forget about any post season hopes for this club in 2009 or 2010. As long as Taveras is on the club, he'll get enough at-bats to ruin both seasons.

My opinion of Jockety just went from very good to below average, or from a "B" to a "D".
It was ONLY ONE move.


... The negativity on this board towards Taveras is very uncalled for IMO.


... but Reds fans have this tendency to overrate certain players, ...

I think some fans just expect too much out of players and gms. One player instantly makes us a contender and another player is powerful enough to not just ruin one season but two. And unless a gm makes a move that we would've made it's a stupid move. Teams can't win with some fans.


Nobody wanted Taveras. There is no proof of that. The only proof is that anyone could have had him for a song 2 weeks ago if they wanted him, and there were no takers.

Why would a team trade for a player when they knew he was about to released and than he wouldn't have cost as much to acquire?

757690
12-27-2008, 10:00 PM
While I am no great fan of Taveras, I will get great pleasure watching the new faster Reds lineup score more runs than the homer happy lineup of the past. This team will be Exciting to watch, and I guarantee that it score more runs than last years team. The emphasis on defense will also lead to less runs allowed and more wins.
I might not be excited about the player, but I love the new approach. Hopefully after this year all the saber nuts who think this game can be reduced torun differential and nothing more will finally be forced to shut up.

BLEEDS
12-27-2008, 10:07 PM
While I am no great fan of Taveras, I will get great pleasure watching the new faster Reds lineup score more runs than the homer happy lineup of the past. This team will be Exciting to watch, and I guarantee that it score more runs than last years team. The emphasis on defense will also lead to less runs allowed and more wins.
I might not be excited about the player, but I love the new approach. Hopefully after this year all the saber nuts who think this game can be reduced torun differential and nothing more will finally be forced to shut up.

You Can't be serious about this can you?!

We just signed a Black Hole to 600-650 AB's. The stat geeks have already beaten this to death over in the ORG.

In order for Tavares to APPROACH AVERAGE, he'll have to continue to bet 65% of his bunt-hits down - which he only did once (his other yearly averages are at ~40%) and steal 60 bases at a 90% clip.
Otherwise, he's 20-25+ runs LESS than "average".

I'm sure you'll speak to how many folks on our team will be "Better Than Last Year" to make up for it, etc, etc, but WHY couldn't we get someone AVERAGE or - heaven forbid - ABOVE AVERAGE, to actually Improve our team overall?!?!

This signing is a virtual Death Sentence for our roster for the next two years.

I will bet ANYTHING you want that we will in no way score more runs than we did last year - I don't care WHO we sign to play LF at this point.
Name your terms. Anything. Seriously.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfandan
12-27-2008, 10:13 PM
This signing is a virtual Death Sentence for our roster for the next two years.
ahhh BLEEDS, I knew you could cheer people up! :thumbup:


I will bet ANYTHING you want that we will in no way score more runs than we did last year - I don't care WHO we sign to play LF at this point. Name your terms. Anything. Seriously.

Careful, someone may just take you up on that offer. :D

Aces Wild
12-27-2008, 10:13 PM
I agree with the principal that one player can't destroy a team. However, the problem with Taveras is that he will start and bat lead off, and no matter how many outs he continues to make Dusty will run him out at lead off for 600-650 ABs. Sorry as Bleeds mentioned, that is a killer for a team that already struggles to score runs.

If Taveras is a pinch runner or 4th OF even he's a decent signing, but when your going to give him 600 ABs a year you are in trouble.......dude is an out machine.

In short, not only will we not score more runs than last year, we probably won't score as many.

redsfandan
12-27-2008, 10:17 PM
Well I'm still kinda holding onto some hope that he won't have 650 abs and that he'll be more like '07 when he does hit leadoff.

The offseason isn't over yet by far.

Aces Wild
12-27-2008, 10:19 PM
Well I'm still kinda holding onto some hope that he won't have 650 abs and that he'll be more like '07 when he does hit leadoff. The offseason isn't over yet by far.

I would be hoping that as well, but I've already seen how this train wreck ends (CPatt last year) and don't trust Dusty or those in charge to pull him.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-27-2008, 10:28 PM
Walt simply solved the problem. We needed a coffin... Err a centerfielder, there were no affordable options that want to play in Cincy so he did the best he could.:D

Slyder
12-27-2008, 10:42 PM
Because Freel has speed, not baserunning or awareness skills. Taveras has base running, defensive awareness and speed - which is why he will be more productive than Freel or Patterson.

I dont blame Freel for that, considering for what the past 3 years he had Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey in the outfield with him. You get lonely having to cover 75% of the outfield by yourself. Now when Hopper and Bruce came up he actually had someone who could cover the of and couldnt get adjusted. Im sure he'd be better this year with a ST and time to get use to actually having someone else in the of to help him :D.

Handofdeath
12-27-2008, 11:08 PM
Nobody wanted Taveras. There is no proof of that. The only proof is that anyone could have had him for a song 2 weeks ago if they wanted him, and there were no takers.

Really? Because according to the December 12th issue of the Rocky Mountain News...

The New York Yankees, Boston, Cincinnati, Florida, Chicago White Sox and Washington all had trade discussions with the Rockies about Taveras, but no deal was made. Several Washington officials indicated a trade of Taveras and right-hander Juan Morillo for Nationals right-hander Tim Redding was about to be finalized Wednesday, but talks broke down.

JayBruceFan
12-27-2008, 11:16 PM
Now lets just trade Votto and seal our 5th place fate

Va Red Fan
12-27-2008, 11:21 PM
I'm sad that we sit at our computers and look up stats and think we know more than a life long baseball GM and a manager with a winning record who was also a pretty good major league player. Patterson was not a great deal last year and Dusty did ride him too long, but would pulling him earlier meant the playoffs for the Reds? No, we were not close. I hope that a real base stealer who can get on base with his speed may add an element to this team. I'm willing to wait and see, but to make a snap judgment like that is extremely immature.
I'm a fan and I hope that Tavares has a superior 2009 and all of you will have to eat your hats, or baseball caps.

CesarGeronimo
12-27-2008, 11:27 PM
While I am no great fan of Taveras, I will get great pleasure watching the new faster Reds lineup score more runs than the homer happy lineup of the past. This team will be Exciting to watch, and I guarantee that it score more runs than last years team. The emphasis on defense will also lead to less runs allowed and more wins.
I might not be excited about the player, but I love the new approach. Hopefully after this year all the saber nuts who think this game can be reduced torun differential and nothing more will finally be forced to shut up.

Absolutely, forget about run differential! What is this nerd obsession with how many runs your team scores and how many the other team scores? Why must the statistical elite insist that winning depends on scoring more runs than opponents? It's baffling, boring and birdbrained.

And just because the Reds have added players in centerfield and at catcher that neutral observers and statistics say aren't particularly good with the glove, don't let that get in the way of the new emphasis on defense. At least CF and catcher look more solid now than shortstop, right? Darn right. And don't forget right next to whoever is going to play SS, they're going to stick with one of the league's best defensive third basemen in EE.

The Reds may have lost their homer happy hitters and they may not care about new-fangled ideas like getting on base and avoiding outs, but they will score more runs and win more games! I may be a little dusty with my math skills, but I do know this: LOW OBP + FEWER HOMERS + SPEED = RUNS AND WINS.

757690
12-27-2008, 11:42 PM
You Can't be serious about this

I will bet ANYTHING you want that we will in no way score more runs than we did last year - I don't care WHO we sign to play LF at this point.
Name your terms. Anything. Seriously.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Here is the wager. In 2009 the Cincinnati Reds will score more runs than they scored in 2008.

If they do, you will stop using the signature. PEACE - BLEEDS forever on RedsZone.

If they do not, I will add the signature PEACE - BLEEDS Rules to all my posts forever on Redszone.

757690
12-27-2008, 11:55 PM
You Can't be serious about this

I will bet ANYTHING you want that we will in no way score more runs than we did last year - I don't care WHO we sign to play LF at this point.
Name your terms. Anything. Seriously.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Here is the wager. In 2009 the Cincinnati Reds will score more runs than they scored in 2008.

If they do, you will stop using the signature. PEACE - BLEEDS forever on RedsZone.

If they do not, I will add the signature PEACE - BLEEDS Rules to all my posts forever on Redszone.

Ed Otten
12-28-2008, 12:00 AM
Here is the wager. In 2009 the Cincinnati Reds will score more runs than they scored in 2008.

If they do, you will stop using the signature. PEACE - BLEEDS forever on RedsZone.

If they do not, I will add the signature PEACE - BLEEDS Rules to all my posts forever on Redszone.

I don't post much, but this was too interesting to pass up. Just because of this challenge, the 2009 Reds season became exponentially more exciting to me, regardless of the outcome.

(And yes, it's unfortunate that the state of the Reds has fallen so far that this passes for exciting.)

Ed

UGADaddy
12-28-2008, 12:07 AM
im with ya 757690

redsfandan
12-28-2008, 12:15 AM
Nah if 757690 has to add something to his signature than Bleeds should have to have to add something to his as well.

757690
12-28-2008, 12:33 AM
Nah if 757690 has to add something to his signature than Bleeds should have to have to add something to his as well.

Okay, per your advice, I will change it. You are right I was being too nice. If the Reds score more runs in 2009 than they did in 2008 than Bleeds has to change his signature to

Speed and Defense Rules - OBP is over-rated

thanks for the advice.

Although I am sure he will weasel his way out of this. He doesn't have the guts.

Slyder
12-28-2008, 12:34 AM
anyone get any details on how much Tavares is getting paid?

redsfandan
12-28-2008, 12:38 AM
anyone get any details on how much Tavares is getting paid?

I've checked and I still haven't seen any details yet.

757690
12-28-2008, 12:54 AM
Absolutely, forget about run differential! What is this nerd obsession with how many runs your team scores and how many the other team scores? Why must the statistical elite insist that winning depends on scoring more runs than opponents? It's baffling, boring and birdbrained.

And just because the Reds have added players in centerfield and at catcher that neutral observers and statistics say aren't particularly good with the glove, don't let that get in the way of the new emphasis on defense. At least CF and catcher look more solid now than shortstop, right? Darn right. And don't forget right next to whoever is going to play SS, they're going to stick with one of the league's best defensive third basemen in EE.

The Reds may have lost their homer happy hitters and they may not care about new-fangled ideas like getting on base and avoiding outs, but they will score more runs and win more games! I may be a little dusty with my math skills, but I do know this: LOW OBP + FEWER HOMERS + SPEED = RUNS AND WINS.

Awesome sarcasm!

You are missing my points, however. I don't like the Taveras signing. I have been arguing that the Reds need a big Rh bat in the middle of the lineup.

However, I think all this, "The world is coming to an end...the Reds will never win with Taveras in CF...Taveras is a black hole of offense..." is all over-reaction nonsense.

Taveras is not that good, but he is not the death of a team. Heck, he led the Rockies to the World Series as their CF and leadoff hitter. Granted he had a career year, but if he was as bad as everyone is screaming, then the Rockies would have been 20 games below .500 the past few years.

I also believe that having an team built around speed and defense can be a very good idea. It helps the pitching staff and helps prevent runs, and on offense, it creates havoc for the other teams defense. Pitchers throw more fastballs, the infielders are always moving, creating holes, etc.

Which leads me to my main point. The goal of a baseball team is to score at least one run more than the other team in every game. It is not to score the most runs at the end of the season or to have the best run differential at the end of the season, it is to score one more run than the other team in each game.

This is why speed and defense is valuable. If you have a good pitching staff, and I think the Reds have one of the best ones in the majors, at least top 10, then solid defense keeps each game close and speed lets you manufacture runs when you need them.

A perfect example of this is the Angels. They never really had the big bats, maybe one or two in the middle of the lineup, but ever since Scioscia has been manager, they have had great defense and speed throughout the lineup and have won.
And in terms of run differential, guess which teams over the past 5 years has beaten their Pythag Theory record the most? You guessed it, the Angels.
They have averaged close to 5 wins more a season than their run differential said they would. Why? because they use speed and defense to win games, not accumulate stats.

redsfandan
12-28-2008, 01:18 AM
Nice post 757690 and I think I agree with every point.

I got a kick out of how you mentioned the same exact team that I also used as an example probably over a year ago in a pm/email to someone on another site. Anaheim does have a little better plate discipline but I am not sure if they have had one 40 hr season from any of their players in the last 7-8 years but they continue to have winning seasons.

Tampa also didn't have a 40 hr season from anyone last season. They won with pitching and defense. It's probably cheaper to win like that too if you do it right.

We need some pop obviously but we already could have 30+ hrs from 2 positions, 20+ hrs from 3 more positions and 15+ hrs from 2 others. I just don't think it's as bleak as some want to believe.

CesarGeronimo
12-28-2008, 01:25 AM
Awesome sarcasm!

You are missing my points, however. I don't like the Taveras signing. I have been arguing that the Reds need a big Rh bat in the middle of the lineup.

However, I think all this, "The world is coming to an end...the Reds will never win with Taveras in CF...Taveras is a black hole of offense..." is all over-reaction nonsense.

Taveras is not that good, but he is not the death of a team. Heck, he led the Rockies to the World Series as their CF and leadoff hitter. Granted he had a career year, but if he was as bad as everyone is screaming, then the Rockies would have been 20 games below .500 the past few years.

I also believe that having an team built around speed and defense can be a very good idea. It helps the pitching staff and helps prevent runs, and on offense, it creates havoc for the other teams defense. Pitchers throw more fastballs, the infielders are always moving, creating holes, etc.

Which leads me to my main point. The goal of a baseball team is to score at least one run more than the other team in every game. It is not to score the most runs at the end of the season or to have the best run differential at the end of the season, it is to score one more run than the other team in each game.

This is why speed and defense is valuable. If you have a good pitching staff, and I think the Reds have one of the best ones in the majors, at least top 10, then solid defense keeps each game close and speed lets you manufacture runs when you need them.

A perfect example of this is the Angels. They never really had the big bats, maybe one or two in the middle of the lineup, but ever since Scioscia has been manager, they have had great defense and speed throughout the lineup and have won.
And in terms of run differential, guess which teams over the past 5 years has beaten their Pythag Theory record the most? You guessed it, the Angels.
They have averaged close to 5 wins more a season than their run differential said they would. Why? because they use speed and defense to win games, not accumulate stats.

OK, I apologize for the sarcasm. You seem like a reasonable guy and your Bleeds challenge is pretty funny. But this business about using defense and speed to win one-run games is a mess. Pulling out five more wins in close games isn't enough. The Reds have gone 74-88 and 72-90 the past two season.

I think your point about the Angels may be a good one, but it in no way fits the Reds' current team, which needs to fix its problems, not perpetuate them. They absolutely need to make their defense much better (I don't think they've done nearly enough there so far; Patterson was easily a better defender than Tavares is), but they also need to get players who will hit better as they improve the defense and Tavares is a big step in the wrong direction compared to most alternatives. The Reds need to score a lot more runs and give up a lot fewer. To do so, they need to add players who are a lot better than Tavares and refuse to put a guy as bad as he is at the top of their order.

The reason I'm most upset about the Tavares signing, though, isn't that he individually will sink the Reds' season. It's that the signing provides a signal (at least to me) that the Reds under Castellini/Jocketty are likely to continue to make bad decisions that bring them no closer to .500.

brachial pleXUs
12-28-2008, 01:55 AM
As a Bengals fan, I greatly resent that statement. There could be nothing worse in the sports world than being a Bengals fan.

Wow! You're a masochist too? As I sit here in my Madieu Williams jersey, looking at my mom's Rudi jersey, I wonder why I continue to turn on the TV to watch a team whose dysfunctionality makes the Reds look like the Cleavers. Perhaps it is my Bengals fan-ness that makes me appreciate Castellini and Jocketty.

brachial pleXUs
12-28-2008, 02:00 AM
Nobody wanted Taveras. There is no proof of that. The only proof is that anyone could have had him for a song 2 weeks ago if they wanted him, and there were no takers.

That Adam Dunn guy is up to his ears in offers too.

MBZags
12-28-2008, 03:03 AM
Willy Taveras is not even a decent defender. First off, his throwing arm is absolutely pathetic. Second, his UZR/150 the past two seasons has been -17.4 and -9.7, respectively. So not only will he not clog the bases, he will also cost the Reds more runs than the average center fielder.

Simply put, the Reds had two better options for CF: Dickerson and Hopper. They chose neither and instead signed a piece of junk who will hurt the team more than help.

Stephenk29
12-28-2008, 03:27 AM
unless the Reds go out and trade for Grady Sizemore, RZ will never be happy. Is this a glamorous trade, heck no. What do you really expect them to do though? Go out and trade Cueto, Bailey and Votto for Torii Hunter? You don't want to trade any of those guys, but you also admit you can't go spend tons of money (which is required). These are the kinds of moves your left with. On par with the Reds bank roll and options. And yep as usual its hard to take.

Ghosts of 1990
12-28-2008, 03:33 AM
the MLB link doesn't work all the sudden

Ghosts of 1990
12-28-2008, 03:35 AM
I dont think this signing will work out for us, but if he steals 60-70 and hits .290 I'll shut up quick

Captain Hook
12-28-2008, 03:38 AM
The Reds have had so many loosing seasons in a row and if i'm not mistaken none of them are WJ's fault.He is doing his thing witch has worked in the past.The last decent guy we had at lead off was well I can't remember.Hairston Jr. was ok last year but couldn't stay healthy and is not likely to have as good of #s in 09 as he did in 08.Tavares is a decent pick up considering the teams needs.He is 26 and should be at the age that he has his best 2 or 3 seasons.Last year was his worst but if you can overlook those numbers he has decent to good numbers all around for a lead off guy.Did everyone think we would sign a guy to play CF, that could lead off, and replace Dunn's production in the lineup?I hate to tell everyone but if there was such a player the Yanks would have signed him for about 25 Mil. per.

fadetoblack2880
12-28-2008, 03:45 AM
why not let keppinger play center? he has godlike abilities...:rolleyes:

redsfandan
12-28-2008, 05:23 AM
Willy Taveras is not even a decent defender. First off, his throwing arm is absolutely pathetic. Second, his UZR/150 the past two seasons has been -17.4 and -9.7, respectively. So not only will he not clog the bases, he will also cost the Reds more runs than the average center fielder.

Simply put, the Reds had two better options for CF: Dickerson and Hopper. They chose neither and instead signed a piece of junk who will hurt the team more than help.

Hopper had Tommy John a few months ago so he may not even be available in March. Dickerson has had only 100 abs in the majors so, Imo, it's too soon to be able to say that he's a lock to make it as a starter just yet. Hairston is still a FA and I think he's more valuable as a utility player anyway. Bradley is very injury prone, is a headcase, and would cost enough to make it harder to pick up someone decent for left. The durability of Baldelli is a concern. ...

There is NO perfect solution to centerfield. But it's not like the team is one player away in '09 anyway. No matter what, the team has question marks that will still have to be answered in '09. Harang. The 5th starter options. Hanigan. EE's defense. Center. Left. The prospects. And of couse, the big elephant in the room, our future ss. Taveras has his faults but if we're lucky and say Dickerson shows what he did in 31 games for us last year wasn't a fluke than Taveras can be trade bait. For now, I think I'll worry about leftfield instead.

steig
12-28-2008, 10:44 AM
Willy Taveras is not the ideal center fielder for any of us. However, we are not the Yankees. We cannot go out and buy an all star for each position. Willy Taveras could be a decent lead off guy who can cover ground in the outfield. Everyone is complaining about his poor average and OBP. But Billy Hatcher only hit .276 in 1990 and had and OBP of .327.

If Taveras struggles, then Dickerson will probably get a chance. But if we had gone into the season planning on Dickerson and he struggled then we would have paid a much higher price to try and obtain another center fielder.

Bip Roberts
12-28-2008, 10:48 AM
I have no faith in Dusty Baker that if Tavares sucks he will be benched. Dusty will say his speed is too important and that his D is just way too good to be benched.

We saw this last year when Dusty continued to play Patterson in center and Dickerson in left.

reds1869
12-28-2008, 11:13 AM
We could do better, we could do worse. And we did do worse with Patterson in CF. I'm willing to give this signing a shot if--and that is a big IF--we are not done dealing and Taveras is only one piece of the puzzle. If this is all the movement we see, heaven help us.

Bip Roberts
12-28-2008, 11:16 AM
I dont know how anyone could say we did worse with Patterson when even with last year Pattersons career OPS is better, and his defense is worlds better.

Not to mention we gave Tavares a 2 year deal.

CesarGeronimo
12-28-2008, 11:42 AM
Reds think speed's the ticket
Signing Taveras signals new direction
By John Fay • jfay@enquirer.com • December 28, 2008

The signing of Willy Taveras might be a precursor to a new, different type of Reds team.

General manager Walt Jocketty said as much when he said the club is still interested in bringing back Jerry Hairston Jr.

"He could end up being the left fielder if we can't get that RBI man, which might be hard to do at this point," Jocketty said. "We may have a different type of team, where we rely on speed and defense and try to manufacture runs. We've still got some guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark - (Joey) Votto, (Jay) Bruce and (Edwin) Encarnacion. But we're going to be a little bit different kind of team."

How different? Consider the Reds had Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn as starting outfielders for the past seven seasons. Griffey and Dunn have 889 home runs between them. Taveras and Hairston have 46.

So why is it going to be hard to bring in an RBI man at this point? Has Walt found that free agents don't want to play for the Reds? Or that his potential trading chips aren't valued enough by other teams? Or does the Reds' budget not have the money for an "RBI man" in left field?

jmac
12-28-2008, 12:04 PM
Here is my question:
With Jr/Dunn off the books and guys like Bako/Ross etc gone from last year's team, what is our current payroll compared to last year ?

I really thought Jocketty would do one major move or deal ( bigger than tavaras) but after reading this article today, I have my doubts.

By simply adding the players he has, surely to goodness he has some wiggle room for another "big" type signing of a bat.

As far as Hairston, if he goes this way, I at least hope they give Owings some AB's in ST to see if he may be a diamond in the rough. I know he has hit but I mean on a consistent basis in LF or a platoon situation.

fewfirstchoice
12-28-2008, 12:48 PM
Walt move on from Hairston Jr. If he wanted to be a Red he would have already. I just dont understand this love affair Walt has with Jerry. I believe the Reds probably have the best offer out there and Hairston is just praying someone tops it so he doesnt have to come back to Cincy. Please Walt let Hairston walk. Sign Miles to be your Hairston for next year. Than with the money you have saved from penny pinching this off season (hes probably only added about 10 mil. in salary this off season) sign Burrell.

CesarGeronimo
12-28-2008, 01:22 PM
Well, you know that Dusty was concerned about Dickerson as a starter because of his history of injuries (he's averaging about 125 games per season over the past five years). So Hairston, who's averaging about 85 games a season over the past six years, is a much safer choice. Also Hairston has had no other season that was nearly as successful at the plate as 2008, so the Reds see that track record and clearly want to put their money behind it.

This small ball idea is awesome, by the way. What could be a better fit for Great American Ball Park than a team that's bunting and slapping its way to the top. :rolleyes:

I(heart)Freel
12-28-2008, 01:25 PM
Here is my question:
With Jr/Dunn off the books and guys like Bako/Ross etc gone from last year's team, what is our current payroll compared to last year ?

I really thought Jocketty would do one major move or deal ( bigger than tavaras) but after reading this article today, I have my doubts.

By simply adding the players he has, surely to goodness he has some wiggle room for another "big" type signing of a bat.

As far as Hairston, if he goes this way, I at least hope they give Owings some AB's in ST to see if he may be a diamond in the rough. I know he has hit but I mean on a consistent basis in LF or a platoon situation.

Awaiting the terms for this deal, but I think payroll is around $70 right now. Payroll was mid $70s last season. And speculation/comments say the Reds will go as high as $80 this season. So maybe about $10 mill to spend, if warranted.

I still think this signing means Dickerson is trade bait for the coveted left fielder. Especially if they resign Hairston soon.

That said, I'd prefer we get creative and aggressive for Rocco. He's my pick for left.

BLEEDS
12-28-2008, 01:49 PM
Okay, per your advice, I will change it. You are right I was being too nice. If the Reds score more runs in 2009 than they did in 2008 than Bleeds has to change his signature to

Speed and Defense Rules - OBP is over-rated

thanks for the advice.

Although I am sure he will weasel his way out of this. He doesn't have the guts.

Let me get back to you on this, since you want to change your sig I might have some input into that portion.

Not really that concerned with the terms otherwise; the only way you can win is if Tavares suffers a season-ending injury prior to the start of the regular season.

I saw this same thing last year with the Patterson Spring Training "invite", it's inevitable. I had a wager working with Amarillo, and he backed out at the last minute.
Dusty Baker + speedy CF w/noodle bat = Offensive Death.
In fact, that might be your sig for 2010...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
12-28-2008, 02:00 PM
Let me get back to you on this, since you want to change your sig I might have some input into that portion.

Not really that concerned with the terms otherwise; the only way you can win is if Tavares suffers a season-ending injury prior to the start of the regular season.

I saw this same thing last year with the Patterson Spring Training "invite", it's inevitable. I had a wager working with Amarillo, and he backed out at the last minute.
Dusty Baker + speedy CF w/noodle bat = Offensive Death.
In fact, that might be your sig for 2010...

PEACE

-BLEEDS


Okay, then let's just make it that the winner gets to pick the losers signature, whatever that may be. This way, we get a whole year to think of something. Who knows, in a year, there could be many more options for both of us, and it gives the rest of the sun deck an opportunity to give us suggestions.

Does that sound fair?

Jr's Boy
12-28-2008, 03:08 PM
Nice pickup,he's a stolen base machine.

WildcatFan
12-28-2008, 03:50 PM
I want nothing more than to see Willy go 6-for-6 with four SBs on opening day just to see what will happen here and in ORG. That would make the 2009 season a success in my book.

That said, there has never been a person named 'Willy' who hasn't had a good nickname. How are we gonna handle that around here?

CesarGeronimo
12-28-2008, 04:09 PM
I want nothing more than to see Willy go 6-for-6 with four SBs on opening day just to see what will happen here and in ORG. That would make the 2009 season a success in my book.

That said, there has never been a person named 'Willy' who hasn't had a good nickname. How are we gonna handle that around here?

Yeah, that'd be even sweeter than when Corey Patterson hit two home runs in his first four games as a Red. He shut those haters up! It absolutely made the 2008 season a success in my book.

Red in Atl
12-28-2008, 04:23 PM
He is worse than Patterson! He's not as good defensively, the OBP is comparable, but Taveras hits for zero power. And not just HR power, he doesn't even hit doubles! Dickerson, Stubbs, and Heisey could produce better than Willy! Hell Norris Hopper is the same player minus a little speed! Willy has to get on base at a better than .350 clip if he's going to be worth anything and he's only done that once.

Come on people, could we not just have a little faith here? We just signed a guy a year off from hitting .320 with a .367 OBP...he stole 68 bases last year out of 75 attempts. He was runner up to ROY just 3 years ago, and he's only 27 years old.

And you are comparing him to CP? Please, I love this site, but sometimes the negative attitude is the exact definition of you guys just being obtuse.

We are a small market team and will never sign guys like the Yankees or the Red Sox or the Angels, etc., etc. And yet you all ***** when we get a guy high on potential and at a low cost.

Did one thing that kid say about his signing with us not say, "Hey, here's a kid with a good attitude, just coming into his own in the league and with a huge upside."

I predict he will lead off, hit .285 and steal 70 bases while playing GG defense for a team that desparately needs it.

And yet many of you will cry about that too...

CesarGeronimo
12-28-2008, 04:34 PM
Come on people, could we not just have a little faith here? We just signed a guy a year off from hitting .320 with a .367 OBP...he stole 68 bases last year out of 75 attempts. He was runner up to ROY just 3 years ago, and he's only 27 years old.

And you are comparing him to CP? Please, I love this site, but sometimes the negative attitude is the exact definition of you guys just being obtuse.

We are a small market team and will never sign guys like the Yankees or the Red Sox or the Angels, etc., etc. And yet you all ***** when we get a guy high on potential and at a low cost.

Did one thing that kid say about his signing with us not say, "Hey, here's a kid with a good attitude, just coming into his own in the league and with a huge upside."

I predict he will lead off, hit .285 and steal 70 bases while playing GG defense for a team that desparately needs it.

And yet many of you will cry about that too...

I just love how anyone who uses actual facts, rather than blind faith, is "crying."

Willy Taveras - career OPS, .668
Corey Patterson - career OPS, .698

Taveras is one of MLB's worst hitters. You can hope that he becomes something else - and so do I - but it doesn't seem likely. He's also clearly a worse defender than Patterson. I think it's reasonable to hope that Taveras will rebound to a .330 OBP, but that's still is bad for a leadoff hitter. He also didn't have a "good attitude" when he got benched at Colorado last year. You can google that and read about it for yourself.

Red in Atl
12-28-2008, 05:27 PM
I just love how anyone who uses actual facts, rather than blind faith, is "crying."

Willy Taveras - career OPS, .668
Corey Patterson - career OPS, .698

Taveras is one of MLB's worst hitters. You can hope that he becomes something else - and so do I - but it doesn't seem likely. He's also clearly a worse defender than Patterson. I think it's reasonable to hope that Taveras will rebound to a .330 OBP, but that's still is bad for a leadoff hitter. He also didn't have a "good attitude" when he got benched at Colorado last year. You can google that and read about it for yourself.

Well I wasn't singling anyone out.

And I didn't say you were crying, I said that if Willy has a good year, people will still "cry" that he didn't do better. Or that we didn't sign so and so. All I'm ever trying to say is that give Walt some time, and lets see the results. A bunch of folks above are ready to quit rooting for the team because of this signing. And I find that pathetic.

Now if they would resigned Patterson, I could see it.

So back to the stats. I'm not sure when OPS became the only stat that counts, but that's the only way your argument works.

Lifetime BA of .283 for Taveras makes him one of the league's worst hitters?
BTW, CP is at .253 and heading further south.

WT, 169 SB's to CP's 182.

And lifetime FPCT: WT .985 to CP at .987. Wow your right, WT is "clearly a worse defender".

As for the attitude, I don't want any starter of mine happy about being benched.

Patterson also played 550 more games than Taveras, which to me means Taveras has the time and the chance to improve, while CP just keeps getting worse.

So I may have "blind faith" in my team, and it's decisions, but it feels a lot better than wishing the team I rooted for had lots of money to spend and was a destination that big time players wanted to come play in.

Bip Roberts
12-28-2008, 05:30 PM
the fact that willy taveras cant slug over .300 in coors makes me think he is a pretty terrible hitter.

Betterread
12-28-2008, 05:31 PM
I give some credit to Jocketty for identifying the leadoff hitter/CF need. Taveras is not the talent to fill that need, in my opinion. He doesn't get on base often enough. Maybe at 27, he still can improve. I guess this acquisition means the Reds aren't high on Dickerson.

Jr's Boy
12-28-2008, 05:32 PM
He also didn't have a "good attitude" when he got benched at Colorado last year.


Well the way that moron Clint Hurdle played him he had a right to be.Have a good series only to be benched the next game so Spilborghs good get a few AB's.

Bip Roberts
12-28-2008, 05:33 PM
The fact that they are mentioning hairston as our possible LFer now makes me laugh myself into tears.

Red in Atl
12-28-2008, 05:35 PM
Come on people.......really, who didn't see this coming? You had to see this coming back in November when the rumor was exposed that the Reds were talking to the Rockies about Taveras, Atkins and Torrealba. They had interest in all three players. Basically they got Taveras for cash without giving up a player.

If you can name me one free agent outfielder that we could have put in the leadoff spot, let me know. And while everyone is on the Chris Dickerson's band wagon, obviously the Reds front office isn't. And to annoint a player a starting job based on 100 ABs, that is risky IMO.

Taveras to me is the Omar Moreno of our generation. And Moreno was able to play centerfield and a few Pirates championship teams back in the 70s. When you get something for free and it only cost you cash, it isn't a horrible deal. Not great but not horrible either.

This is from Krusty on the ORG.

Thanks Krusty for filling in the gaps of my post.

BTW, Taveras is not my first choice of guys that I want for this team, but he's here and Ichiro isn't ever coming, so I just have to live with it.

Red in Atl
12-28-2008, 05:38 PM
the fact that willy taveras cant slug over .300 in coors makes me think he is a pretty terrible hitter.

Yes that is scary, but you have to give the kid one bad year. He hadn't really had one yet until '08. And that whole team was a mess all year. From the World Series to 14 games under .500. You can't blame that on the kid.

Bip Roberts
12-28-2008, 05:39 PM
That just proves to me that getting in the ORG has nothing to do with knowledge of baseball.

redsfandan
12-28-2008, 05:39 PM
I just love how anyone who uses actual facts, rather than blind faith, is "crying."

Willy Taveras - career OPS, .668
Corey Patterson - career OPS, .698

Taveras is one of MLB's worst hitters. ...

Here's some more "actual facts" for ya:

Willy Taveras - career ba: .283
Corey Patterson - career ba: .253

Willy Taveras - career best ba: .320
Corey Patterson - career best ba: .298

Willy Taveras - career worst ba: .251
Corey Patterson - career worst ba: .205

Willy Taveras - career obp: .331
Corey Patterson - career obp: .291

Willy Taveras - career best obp: .367
Corey Patterson - career best obp: .329

Willy Taveras - career worst obp: .308
Corey Patterson - career worst obp: .238

CP does have more power. But in the last two years he's hit only 18 hrs in 827 abs. Is 8-10 hrs in a season THAT much of an improvement over 2 hrs? Either way, the power #'s will stink.

Taveras is a safer bet to reach 1st and is a better baserunner so I think I'll take the outfielder that is more likely to create less outs.

Bip Roberts
12-28-2008, 05:40 PM
Yes that is scary, but you have to give the kid one bad year. He hadn't really had one yet until '08. And that whole team was a mess all year. From the World Series to 14 games under .500. You can't blame that on the kid.

I'm pretty sure hes only had 1 good year and to call it a good year is pretty laughable considering it was 97 games and no where near his craptastic career averages.

Emin3mShady07
12-28-2008, 05:47 PM
Come on people, could we not just have a little faith here? We just signed a guy a year off from hitting .320 with a .367 OBP...he stole 68 bases last year out of 75 attempts. He was runner up to ROY just 3 years ago, and he's only 27 years old.

And you are comparing him to CP? Please, I love this site, but sometimes the negative attitude is the exact definition of you guys just being obtuse.

We are a small market team and will never sign guys like the Yankees or the Red Sox or the Angels, etc., etc. And yet you all ***** when we get a guy high on potential and at a low cost.

Did one thing that kid say about his signing with us not say, "Hey, here's a kid with a good attitude, just coming into his own in the league and with a huge upside."

I predict he will lead off, hit .285 and steal 70 bases while playing GG defense for a team that desparately needs it.

And yet many of you will cry about that too...

Correct me if I am wrong, but don't the people who give out the ROY awards the same people that give out gold gloves? These awards really mean nothing. Statistically, the worst CF in the majors last year, Nate McClouth, won the gold glove so its not like a guy finishing second in ROY voting is important...Angel Berroa won it remember?

And even if he meets your very optimistic predictions, he has a poor IsoD so his OBP would be right around .325ish. He is not a GG defender and in fact, Corey Patterson is probably better on defense. He also has never stole bases as well as he did last year and even when he had that .367 OBP he only strole 33 bases so predicting 70 is a bit of a stretch. The reason that this is a problem is that Tavers will most likely take PAs away from better, more productive players and make the 2009 reds worse. Sure he may be an upgrade from 2008, but its not that hard to do that. The reds may not be the Yanks but they can still spend the money in a better way than wasting some on taveras. Again, why sign him when there were better in house and FA replacements available?

redsfandan
12-28-2008, 06:00 PM
Again, why sign him when there were better in house and FA replacements available?

Name them.

Bip Roberts
12-28-2008, 06:03 PM
Norris Hopper is likely cheaper and just as crappy.

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:04 PM
Anyone else think this signing opens up the trade lines for Dickerson? Perhaps he was needed bait to get the RH LF the Reds seek.

I don't mind this signing nearly as much as others on this board. Everyone is so d*mned short sighted. He had a pedestrian 2008 season in OBP, but he still stole more effectively than any player in the modern era. Maybe Walt/the Reds think he's better than last year's number would have everyone else believe?

2007 OBP: 367
2008 OBP: 308

Is he as bad as 08? Is he as good as 07? I'd be willing to gamble on the mean.

BTW: Anyone see the details for this deal, dollars-wise?

Go back into the Colorado Newspapers and read what they have to say about Taveras over the last 2 seasons and you'll see why this signing has ruined the ballclub.

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:10 PM
You Can't be serious about this can you?!

We just signed a Black Hole to 600-650 AB's. The stat geeks have already beaten this to death over in the ORG.

In order for Tavares to APPROACH AVERAGE, he'll have to continue to bet 65% of his bunt-hits down - which he only did once (his other yearly averages are at ~40%) and steal 60 bases at a 90% clip.
Otherwise, he's 20-25+ runs LESS than "average".

I'm sure you'll speak to how many folks on our team will be "Better Than Last Year" to make up for it, etc, etc, but WHY couldn't we get someone AVERAGE or - heaven forbid - ABOVE AVERAGE, to actually Improve our team overall?!?!

This signing is a virtual Death Sentence for our roster for the next two years.

I will bet ANYTHING you want that we will in no way score more runs than we did last year - I don't care WHO we sign to play LF at this point.
Name your terms. Anything. Seriously.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

It is pretty obvious, isn't it? You can't hide the fact that Tavares can't get on base any more than you could hide the fact that Corey Patterson couldn't get on base. It was amazing how many people last March thought that Patterson would get on base, too, and the season was over by Mid-May after Patterson got enough starts to bury the REDS in the Central Standings. What has changed to expect anything different, other than the idea that Tavares will probably get more at-bats than Patterson? You can't force a guy to get on base who doesn't draw walks and works for a manager who doesn't like walks.

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:14 PM
Walt simply solved the problem. We needed a coffin... Err a centerfielder, there were no affordable options that want to play in Cincy so he did the best he could.:D He panicked when Patterson got signed as he was planning on getting Patterson cheap and playing him in Centerfield again. So, he immediately signed his clone to a 2-year deal even though he only needed to sign him to a 1 year deal and still would have retained exclusive rights to him in 2010.

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:15 PM
I dont blame Freel for that, considering for what the past 3 years he had Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey in the outfield with him. You get lonely having to cover 75% of the outfield by yourself. Now when Hopper and Bruce came up he actually had someone who could cover the of and couldnt get adjusted. Im sure he'd be better this year with a ST and time to get use to actually having someone else in the of to help him :D.
There is truth to that. How about all those doors being knocked at the Griffey and Dunn households?

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:18 PM
Really? Because according to the December 12th issue of the Rocky Mountain News...

The New York Yankees, Boston, Cincinnati, Florida, Chicago White Sox and Washington all had trade discussions with the Rockies about Taveras, but no deal was made. Several Washington officials indicated a trade of Taveras and right-hander Juan Morillo for Nationals right-hander Tim Redding was about to be finalized Wednesday, but talks broke down.

Baseball rumors are made for selling newspapers and bettering the salary negotiations. Tavares' Agent is the "Master" of spreading rumors that have never existed. The FACT is that there was no trade made.

There's aliens in your backyard, too.

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:23 PM
However, I think all this, "The world is coming to an end...the Reds will never win with Taveras in CF...Taveras is a black hole of offense..." is all over-reaction nonsense.



It doesn't take much to ruin a team. Just like the Bengals will never be any good as long as Ghiaciuc is at Center, no team is likely to get to the playoffs if their leadoff hitter gets on base below a .330 clip, and they will never if he gets on base below a .310 clip. It's rally kill after rally kill after rally kill, and it deflates the attitude of the entire team when the worst hitter on the team gets the most at-bats in a game, game after game after game.

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:26 PM
OK, I apologize for the sarcasm. You seem like a reasonable guy and your Bleeds challenge is pretty funny. But this business about using defense and speed to win one-run games is a mess. Pulling out five more wins in close games isn't enough. The Reds have gone 74-88 and 72-90 the past two season.

I think your point about the Angels may be a good one, but it in no way fits the Reds' current team, which needs to fix its problems, not perpetuate them. They absolutely need to make their defense much better (I don't think they've done nearly enough there so far; Patterson was easily a better defender than Tavares is), but they also need to get players who will hit better as they improve the defense and Tavares is a big step in the wrong direction compared to most alternatives. The Reds need to score a lot more runs and give up a lot fewer. To do so, they need to add players who are a lot better than Tavares and refuse to put a guy as bad as he is at the top of their order.

The reason I'm most upset about the Tavares signing, though, isn't that he individually will sink the Reds' season. It's that the signing provides a signal (at least to me) that the Reds under Castellini/Jocketty are likely to continue to make bad decisions that bring them no closer to .500.....and that they gave up on Dickerson when Dickerson had one of the best seasons offensively of any RED last year, and that Dickerson will only get better as he approaches his peak age physically. Now, with Tavares aboard, he can't even continue to develop.

WildcatFan
12-28-2008, 06:28 PM
Come on people.......really, who didn't see this coming? You had to see this coming back in November when the rumor was exposed that the Reds were talking to the Rockies about Taveras, Atkins and Torrealba. They had interest in all three players. Basically they got Taveras for cash without giving up a player.

If you can name me one free agent outfielder that we could have put in the leadoff spot, let me know. And while everyone is on the Chris Dickerson's band wagon, obviously the Reds front office isn't. And to annoint a player a starting job based on 100 ABs, that is risky IMO.

Taveras to me is the Omar Moreno of our generation. And Moreno was able to play centerfield and a few Pirates championship teams back in the 70s. When you get something for free and it only cost you cash, it isn't a horrible deal. Not great but not horrible either.

This is from Krusty on the ORG.

Thanks Krusty for filling in the gaps of my post.

BTW, Taveras is not my first choice of guys that I want for this team, but he's here and Ichiro isn't ever coming, so I just have to live with it.

Ichiro?! Are you kidding me? You're going to pay a 35-year-old outfielder coming out of his prime $17 million a year??? He doesn't walk!!! He hasn't hit 10 home runs since 2005, and...

...somebody help me out — this is how we do it, right?

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:30 PM
unless the Reds go out and trade for Grady Sizemore, RZ will never be happy.
Read the post above the one where I grabbed this one from. It's on page 8 of this thread. As you'll see. Many here at RZ were content with what the REDS already have and felt there wasn't a need to add a Centerfielder.

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:35 PM
I want nothing more than to see Willy go 6-for-6 with four SBs on opening day just to see what will happen here and in ORG. That would make the 2009 season a success in my book.


If he does that, it will be followed by a 4-for-32 to balance things out.

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 06:38 PM
Come on people.......really, who didn't see this coming? You had to see this coming back in November when the rumor was exposed that the Reds were talking to the Rockies about Taveras, Atkins and Torrealba. They had interest in all three players. Basically they got Taveras for cash without giving up a player.

If you can name me one free agent outfielder that we could have put in the leadoff spot, let me know. And while everyone is on the Chris Dickerson's band wagon, obviously the Reds front office isn't. And to annoint a player a starting job based on 100 ABs, that is risky IMO.

Taveras to me is the Omar Moreno of our generation. And Moreno was able to play centerfield and a few Pirates championship teams back in the 70s. When you get something for free and it only cost you cash, it isn't a horrible deal. Not great but not horrible either.

This is from Krusty on the ORG.

Thanks Krusty for filling in the gaps of my post.

BTW, Taveras is not my first choice of guys that I want for this team, but he's here and Ichiro isn't ever coming, so I just have to live with it.

Don't confuse the lineup that hit behind Moreno for the lineup that will hit behind Tavares. That was an era when the Atlanta Braves had the worst team in baseball and led the league in scoring. It was also an era when in the middle of that decade, there were only 3 players that slugged above .500 for the entire season...Strawberry, Schmidt, and one other in 1985 or 86...Things were completely different, and the Moreno thing wouldn't have worked on any other team except the Pirates.

Everybody and their brother can knock out 10 homeruns or more at the GAB, and other small NL ballparks. Tavares' ineptness at both getting on base and moving runners over is mind-boggling in today's baseball game.

757690
12-28-2008, 07:08 PM
It doesn't take much to ruin a team. Just like the Bengals will never be any good as long as Ghiaciuc is at Center, no team is likely to get to the playoffs if their leadoff hitter gets on base below a .330 clip, and they will never if he gets on base below a .310 clip. It's rally kill after rally kill after rally kill, and it deflates the attitude of the entire team when the worst hitter on the team gets the most at-bats in a game, game after game after game.

In the last two years, 6 out of the 16 playoff teams had leadoff hitters whose OBP was around .330.

08 - Dodgers .327, White Sox .334, Red Sox .336,
07 - D-backs .295, Red Sox .324, Cubs .337.

And as you can see, three made it with below .330.

Granted, having a high OBP leadoff hitter is better and will increase your chances of making the playoffs, but it is by no means necessary.

757690
12-28-2008, 07:20 PM
Baseball rumors are made for selling newspapers and bettering the salary negotiations. Tavares' Agent is the "Master" of spreading rumors that have never existed. The FACT is that there was no trade made.

There's aliens in your backyard, too.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/willy-taveras-w.html


Willy Taveras Will Be Non-Tendered
By Tim Dierkes [December 12, 2008 at 9:35am CST]

Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post says to expect outfielder Willy Taveras to join the free agent market:

The Nationals' unwillingness to take Taveras and Juan Morillo for Tim Redding — a deal Colorado thought was done — will lead the Rockies to non-tender the center fielder today, making him a free agent.

Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News agrees he'll be non-tendered, noting the Yankees, Red Sox, Reds, Marlins, and White Sox also had trade discussions for Taveras.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/rockies-eyeing.html


8:40pm: Rosenthal says the Rockies and Nats are discussing a Redding for Taveras swap.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/rockies-rumor-2.html


Rockies Rumors: Redding, Taveras, Penny
By Tim Dierkes [December 11, 2008 at 2:47am CST]

2:47am: MLB.com's Thomas Harding digs further. He says Taveras did not fail a physical, and the other player in the trade was hard-throwing righty Juan Morillo (who is out of options).

12:50am: Troy Renck says the Tim Redding-Willy Taveras deal is on life support. An upgrade from dead, I suppose. He says:

A potential deal died late Tuesday over apparent concerns about Willy Taveras’ left leg stress fracture. However, a Natonals’ source said that the bigger issue was a medical issue with a pitcher Washington was to receive as part of the deal. That leaves the lingering possibility that something could get done Thursday following the Rule 5 draft.

Enough confirmation for you?

Newman4
12-28-2008, 07:25 PM
757690 - I agree that this year's Reds score more runs than last.

BLEEDS
12-28-2008, 07:36 PM
Okay, then let's just make it that the winner gets to pick the losers signature, whatever that may be. This way, we get a whole year to think of something. Who knows, in a year, there could be many more options for both of us, and it gives the rest of the sun deck an opportunity to give us suggestions.

Does that sound fair?

Deal.

IF the Reds score more runs in 2009 than they did in 2008 - outside of Wily Tavares being placed on IR for the entire year, or otherwise getting less than 300 PA's in a Reds Uniform - We'll agree to allow the other person to pick the losers signature. I'll go forever if you'd like, but I'd leave it to you if you'd prefer it to be for only the 2010 season - or as long as Wily Tavares is a Red, whichever ends first...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 07:45 PM
In the last two years, 6 out of the 16 playoff teams had leadoff hitters whose OBP was around .330.

08 - Dodgers .327, White Sox .334, Red Sox .336,
07 - D-backs .295, Red Sox .324, Cubs .337.

And as you can see, three made it with below .330.

Granted, having a high OBP leadoff hitter is better and will increase your chances of making the playoffs, but it is by no means necessary.

]...no team is likely to get to the playoffs if their leadoff hitter gets on base below a .324 clip[/B], I changed it 6/1000th's of a point.

I'm also not sure where you got your stats. I just looked up at www.baseball-reference.com the '07 D-Backs and their leadoff hitters had an OBP of .318 and an impressive SLG of .443 for a .761 OBP, or 100 points higher than Tavares' lifetime OBP. Here's you link... http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=ARI&year=2007

I have a feeling that your other stats are wrong, too, so I'm going to look those up.

BLEEDS
12-28-2008, 07:47 PM
In the last two years, 6 out of the 16 playoff teams had leadoff hitters whose OBP was around .330.

08 - Dodgers .327, White Sox .334, Red Sox .336,
07 - D-backs .295, Red Sox .324, Cubs .337.

And as you can see, three made it with below .330.

I don't suppose you'd care to put this back in the CONTEXT of many of the other discussions here and esp. in the ORG, eh? - that being the context of "The Rest of the Reds Lineup" which is already OBP & OPS - "challenged" to use a term lightly.

I don't really have the time to spend for the in-depth analysis required to come to full consensus (:rolleyes:) but I'm going to wager that the Dodgers, WhiteSox, RedSox, and Cubs lineups referenced above are just a tad more than slightly (insert sarcasm smiley) greater in offensive production than either the Reds 2007 or 2008 teams in Runs scored.

Again - outside of acquiring Manny Ramirez to play LF, trading Votto for a Chris Young or other GG-type SS, and putting Albert Pujols at 1B - you can pretty much write it down that we aren't going to score more runs than any of those teams mentioned above.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 07:52 PM
I was right about your stats being wrong. The '08 Dodgers that batted 1st in the lineup (not batted 1st in an inning) had an OBP of .351 and an OPS of .757. That's 24 points higher than the .327 that you claim.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=LAD&year=2008

biggestREDSfan
12-28-2008, 07:58 PM
I know the Reds will score more runs this next year than they did last year. Just on this fact alone with the pitching staff they have now and the Reds scoring more runs WILL ceate more WINS this year! The Reds have made some good pickups of players this year.
I have a good feeling the wheeling and dealing for this year is not over. The moves they made so far will help the team. And the ones still to come I believe will put the icing on the cake this year. :thumbup:

Kingspoint
12-28-2008, 08:06 PM
You were also wrong about the '07 Red Sox, but only by 5 points. Instead of the .324 that you claim, 1st in the batting order for the Red Sox in 2007 had an OBP of .329 and an OPS of .712. Not only do those Red Sox not have a pitcher hitting ahead of their leadoff spot as the REDS will have making those 2 positions back-to-back automatic outs, but those 2007 Red Sox fall under the rare Omar Moreno scenario where the OPS' of the next 5 players were .821, 1.034, .879, .816, .813.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=BOS&year=2007

So, I maintain exactly what I said the 1st time, which especially holds true in the National League with the Pitcher batting 9th....no team is likely to get to the playoffs if their leadoff hitter gets on base below a .330 clip, and they will never if he gets on base below a .310 clip. It's rally kill after rally kill after rally kill, and it deflates the attitude of the entire team when the worst hitter on the team gets the most at-bats in a game, game after game after game.

Red in Atl
12-28-2008, 08:10 PM
Ichiro?! Are you kidding me? You're going to pay a 35-year-old outfielder coming out of his prime $17 million a year??? He doesn't walk!!! He hasn't hit 10 home runs since 2005, and...

...somebody help me out — this is how we do it, right?

No dude, I was just saying that I love Ichiro, and I would love to have him instead of Taveras in MY dream world.

Not saying Ichiro makes us a contender, but a guy who leads off, hits .320 with 200 hits, 30 SB's and plays GG right field couldn't hurt. I know he's getting older. As I said, my dream world.

I will predict that he keeps those numbers up for at least 2 more years and plays 5 more at least. He will get 3,000 MLB hits.

Go up to Seattle, he's a god. And I just happen to like all around players like a certain guy who used to play here. I think his number was 14.

Captain Hook
12-28-2008, 08:17 PM
Lets all try to look at things a little differently.

1. CF Tavares in place of CP
2. SS Keppinger/Gonzalaz
3. 1B Voto in place of Hatterburg
4. 3B EE
5. LF Bruce in place of Griffey
6. 2B Phillips
7.Dickerson(or future FA signed) in place of Dunn
8.Hernandez in place of Bako

You can talk about numbers all day long but it looks obvious to me that the opening day line up will be much improved in 09 from 08.All positions are manned by young talent that should only improve,or veterans that are huge upgrades over what we had last year with the exception of SS where things should remain the same as what it was in 08 and RF witch still can be improved be signing or trading for someone else.Either way, things look to be better in 09 and if the pitching ends up being as good as most say it will be we have a chance to do well.The Rays had a chance to do well last Yr. the Rockies the Yr. before and so on.

Probably won't work but just trying to clear up some of the doom and gloom.:)

BRM13
12-28-2008, 08:41 PM
Lets all try to look at things a little differently.

1. CF Tavares in place of CP
2. SS Keppinger/Gonzalaz
3. 1B Voto in place of Hatterburg
4. 3B EE
5. LF Bruce in place of Griffey
6. 2B Phillips
7.Dickerson(or future FA signed) in place of Dunn
8.Hernandez in place of Bako

You can talk about numbers all day long but it looks obvious to me that the opening day line up will be much improved in 09 from 08.All positions are manned by young talent that should only improve,or veterans that are huge upgrades over what we had last year with the exception of SS where things should remain the same as what it was in 08 and RF witch still can be improved be signing or trading for someone else.Either way, things look to be better in 09 and if the pitching ends up being as good as most say it will be we have a chance to do well.The Rays had a chance to do well last Yr. the Rockies the Yr. before and so on.

Probably won't work but just trying to clear up some of the doom and gloom.:)

I don't know about all those numbers either :D, but I'd say this looks better at C and in RF, worse or a wash in CF and much much worse in LF. 1B should be better because we have Votto all year, but he was good last year so I don't know how much better I'd bet on for this year. EE needs to improve or he won't be with the team in 2010, but do we bet on that? SS could be better defensively but worse offensively if we go with AG. I think BP will give us about the same as last year. At best I'd say this lineup is a bit better, but that is a best case scenario. I could see worse if Taveras gives us a worst case scenario or someone we are counting on like BP or Votto gets hurt. So far, not much has happened to give me much reason to be optimistic that we will be much better next year. A lot has to go right to just get over .500.

757690
12-28-2008, 08:42 PM
You were also wrong about the '07 Red Sox, but only by 5 points. Instead of the .324 that you claim, 1st in the batting order for the Red Sox in 2007 had an OBP of .329 and an OPS of .712. Not only do those Red Sox not have a pitcher hitting ahead of their leadoff spot as the REDS will have making those 2 positions back-to-back automatic outs, but those 2007 Red Sox fall under the rare Omar Moreno scenario where the OPS' of the next 5 players were .821, 1.034, .879, .816, .813.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=BOS&year=2007

So, I maintain exactly what I said the 1st time, which especially holds true in the National League with the Pitcher batting 9th....no team is likely to get to the playoffs if their leadoff hitter gets on base below a .330 clip, and they will never if he gets on base below a .310 clip. It's rally kill after rally kill after rally kill, and it deflates the attitude of the entire team when the worst hitter on the team gets the most at-bats in a game, game after game after game.

I was using the OBP of the players that leadoff the most for those teams.

08 - Dodgers .327- Pierre, White Sox .334 - O. Cabrera, Red Sox .336 - Elsberry,
07 - D-backs .295 C. Young, Red Sox .324 - Lugo, Cubs .337 - Soriano.

Sorry for the confusion.

If you meant the leadoff hitter for all 162 games, that is another issue and does not directly involve Taveras, since he will not leadoff for all 162 games. In fact, Jocketty has said that Taveras, "potentially a very good leadoff man...in order to do that Taveras has to get his on-base percentage close to .367 like it was in the 2007, rather than the .308 it was last season"

Per Fay: http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a808f15fb-a99b-4009-a9e8-dae10540e1bf&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

This means that if Taveras does not get his act together and OBP .360 or higher, than he will ride the bench and someone else will. Jocketty agrees with you. The Reds will not have a leadoff hitter OBP below .350, if Jocketty has his way.

My point is that you can have a leadoff hitter, who leads,off most of your games, OBP around or below .330 and still make the playoffs.

757690
12-28-2008, 08:47 PM
I don't suppose you'd care to put this back in the CONTEXT of many of the other discussions here and esp. in the ORG, eh? - that being the context of "The Rest of the Reds Lineup" which is already OBP & OPS - "challenged" to use a term lightly.

I don't really have the time to spend for the in-depth analysis required to come to full consensus (:rolleyes:) but I'm going to wager that the Dodgers, WhiteSox, RedSox, and Cubs lineups referenced above are just a tad more than slightly (insert sarcasm smiley) greater in offensive production than either the Reds 2007 or 2008 teams in Runs scored.

Again - outside of acquiring Manny Ramirez to play LF, trading Votto for a Chris Young or other GG-type SS, and putting Albert Pujols at 1B - you can pretty much write it down that we aren't going to score more runs than any of those teams mentioned above.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Never said that the Reds will make the playoffs with a .330 OBP or worse leadoff hitter for the whole season, with the lineup they have now. Never said that the Reds will score more runs than any team other than the Reds team of last year.

Just making the point that a leadoff hitter with a .330 or even a .295 OBP is not the death of a team. They can still make the playoffs.

OBP is OVERRATED!!!!!!

It used to be underrated, and now it is overrated.

757690
12-28-2008, 08:49 PM
Deal.

IF the Reds score more runs in 2009 than they did in 2008 - outside of Wily Tavares being placed on IR for the entire year, or otherwise getting less than 300 PA's in a Reds Uniform - We'll agree to allow the other person to pick the losers signature. I'll go forever if you'd like, but I'd leave it to you if you'd prefer it to be for only the 2010 season - or as long as Wily Tavares is a Red, whichever ends first...

PEACE

-BLEEDS


Deal

biggestREDSfan
12-28-2008, 09:49 PM
Lets all try to look at things a little differently.

1. CF Tavares in place of CP
2. SS Keppinger/Gonzalaz
3. 1B Voto in place of Hatterburg
4. 3B EE
5. LF Bruce in place of Griffey
6. 2B Phillips
7.Dickerson(or future FA signed) in place of Dunn
8.Hernandez in place of Bako

You can talk about numbers all day long but it looks obvious to me that the opening day line up will be much improved in 09 from 08.All positions are manned by young talent that should only improve,or veterans that are huge upgrades over what we had last year with the exception of SS where things should remain the same as what it was in 08 and RF witch still can be improved be signing or trading for someone else.Either way, things look to be better in 09 and if the pitching ends up being as good as most say it will be we have a chance to do well.The Rays had a chance to do well last Yr. the Rockies the Yr. before and so on.

Probably won't work but just trying to clear up some of the doom and gloom.:)

Hey redsfever09!
I completely agree with you!
Let's have a great year in 2009!

Slyder
12-28-2008, 09:59 PM
Lets all try to look at things a little differently.

1. CF Tavares in place of CP
2. SS Keppinger/Gonzalaz
3. 1B Voto in place of Hatterburg
4. 3B EE
5. LF Bruce in place of Griffey
6. 2B Phillips
7.Dickerson(or future FA signed) in place of Dunn
8.Hernandez in place of Bako

You can talk about numbers all day long but it looks obvious to me that the opening day line up will be much improved in 09 from 08.All positions are manned by young talent that should only improve,or veterans that are huge upgrades over what we had last year with the exception of SS where things should remain the same as what it was in 08 and RF witch still can be improved be signing or trading for someone else.Either way, things look to be better in 09 and if the pitching ends up being as good as most say it will be we have a chance to do well.The Rays had a chance to do well last Yr. the Rockies the Yr. before and so on.

Probably won't work but just trying to clear up some of the doom and gloom.:)

I like your optimism but remember who's making the line up cards. The lineup will be just like it was last year and make just as much sense as Duhhhsty hangs himself with the christmas gift rope Walt just tossed him in Willy.

Which also means "out of respect" he wont "demote" Phillips from hitting 4th. And Gonzo batting second makes about as much sense which is perfect for Duhhsty.

DannyB
12-28-2008, 10:47 PM
....and that they gave up on Dickerson when Dickerson had one of the best seasons offensively of any RED last year, and that Dickerson will only get better as he approaches his peak age physically. Now, with Tavares aboard, he can't even continue to develop.
Dickerson is your leftfielder.

Jr's Boy
12-28-2008, 11:00 PM
He also didn't have a "good attitude" when he got benched at Colorado last year.


Well the way that moron Clint Hurdle played him he had a right to be.Have a good series only to be benched the next game so Spilborghs could get a few AB's.

BLEEDS
12-28-2008, 11:15 PM
Deal
So sig forever, or the other "terms" (through 2010 or Wily Tavares leaves the Reds, whichever happens first) ?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

CesarGeronimo
12-29-2008, 12:57 AM
Here's some more "actual facts" for ya:

Willy Taveras - career ba: .283
Corey Patterson - career ba: .253

Willy Taveras - career best ba: .320
Corey Patterson - career best ba: .298

Willy Taveras - career worst ba: .251
Corey Patterson - career worst ba: .205

Willy Taveras - career obp: .331
Corey Patterson - career obp: .291

Willy Taveras - career best obp: .367
Corey Patterson - career best obp: .329

Willy Taveras - career worst obp: .308
Corey Patterson - career worst obp: .238

CP does have more power. But in the last two years he's hit only 18 hrs in 827 abs. Is 8-10 hrs in a season THAT much of an improvement over 2 hrs? Either way, the power #'s will stink.

Taveras is a safer bet to reach 1st and is a better baserunner so I think I'll take the outfielder that is more likely to create less outs.

Sure if you look at OBP and batting average, Taveras has the advantage. But if you look at OPS and defense, Patterson has the advantage. The point I was refuting was that someone said it is ridiculous to compare Taveras to Patterson because Taveras is so much better. I say that he may be better, but it's at least an arguable point, which is pathetic when you know how bad Patterson is.

WildcatFan
12-29-2008, 01:03 AM
No dude, I was just saying that I love Ichiro, and I would love to have him instead of Taveras in MY dream world.

Not saying Ichiro makes us a contender, but a guy who leads off, hits .320 with 200 hits, 30 SB's and plays GG right field couldn't hurt. I know he's getting older. As I said, my dream world.

I will predict that he keeps those numbers up for at least 2 more years and plays 5 more at least. He will get 3,000 MLB hits.

Go up to Seattle, he's a god. And I just happen to like all around players like a certain guy who used to play here. I think his number was 14.

Sorry, I was just kidding with that one, saying that whoever the Reds signed will be immediately picked apart here. I would love nothing more than Ichiro in RF.

MBZags
12-29-2008, 01:16 AM
I guess I was thinking of someone else before. After looking further, Taveras' arm, by most accounts, is above average, but that still doesn't make up for his bad UZR/150.

757690
12-29-2008, 01:20 AM
So sig forever, or the other "terms" (through 2010 or Wily Tavares leaves the Reds, whichever happens first) ?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Forever

AccordinglyReds
12-29-2008, 02:22 AM
Jeez. RZ has gone nuts over this signing......

I like Tavares and I'm glad he'll be replacing CP. :)

Slyder
12-29-2008, 03:43 AM
Has anyone found the $ of the deal?

DannyB
12-29-2008, 08:05 AM
Has anyone found the $ of the deal?
I read somewhere $20mil/2 yrs.

TheBigLebowski
12-29-2008, 10:09 AM
I've heard 5 mm/yr with a 20mm signing bonus.

WildcatFan
12-29-2008, 11:40 AM
Where are you getting that info?

Bip Roberts
12-29-2008, 11:45 AM
he got it from the national madeup network

bgwilly31
12-29-2008, 11:48 AM
I read somewhere $20mil/2 yrs.

OMG say it aint so.

DannyB
12-29-2008, 12:04 PM
he got it from the national madeup network

I know I read it somewhere;)

kentjett
12-29-2008, 12:33 PM
I personally hated Patterson in the field. He never took the right route to the ball and always froze a little before going after it. These type of things don't show up in numbers but it really weakens his range. He was good at going back on a ball hit solid but he was a little slow on line-drives hit in front of him. Wily plays a very shallow center and takes away a lot of hits because he can make it up w/ his speed and he has a better arm than Patterson. We will be drastically improved w/ our defense overall. Dunn was the worst LF in baseball ( worse than Burrell) and Griffey struggled big time in right. Our catching has improved and hopefully our SS will have more range than Kepp.

BLEEDS
12-29-2008, 12:45 PM
Forever

As much as I'm going to enjoy giving you a signature for a period of time, even I think that "forever" is a bit harsh.

Also, since you obviously want to make it something to do with "speed and defense rules" vs. OBP/OPS, I'm glad to see you are agreeing to it being tied to Tavares min 300 PA's in the leadoff spot.

I'm still hopeful - though much less so - that we'll get that big Power, HUGE OPS-ing LF-er to put into the lineup for 155+ games, which may in fact help us approach scoring more runs than last year, but I'm not holding my breath that that will happen now after Jockety's comments on Left Field.

At least THIS might actually keep me interested in watching the Reds, since my hopes for serious contention just went out the window with this acquisition.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

WildcatFan
12-29-2008, 12:50 PM
Oh man, this might warrant a Reds Runs Watch thread. I'm already excited.

UPRedsFan
12-29-2008, 01:09 PM
I know they've said Willy is the starting center fielder, improves defense, yada yada. But, if Dickerson continues to shine (maybe not as brightly as he did in his first 100 ab's) Dusty will have to consider a platoon in center.

Taveras had 20 points more OB% against lefties last year. If you accept that he'll return to career norm of .330 on base overall, you could expect maybe .340 or .345 playing strictly against lefties. Now how are we looking with a Dickerson/Taveras platoon in center? Not so bad afterall I think.

Still need to find a left fielder and I'm still holding out hope that Walt will come up with something. I'd rather have Burrell or Abreu, but even an Edmonds/Keppinger or Hairston platoon could work. These wouldn't be terrible lineups.

Against rhp
Dickerson
Encarnacion
Votto
Edmonds
Bruce
Phillips
Hernandez
Gonzalez

Against lhp (I'm counting
Taveras
Keppinger/Hairston
Votto
Encarnacion
Bruce
Phillips
Hernandez
Gonzalez

Bip Roberts
12-29-2008, 01:36 PM
Dickerson in a platoon would be a great thing. He has always hit right handers

JayBruceFan
12-29-2008, 01:52 PM
Hopefully Eric Davis can work with Taveras and get him straightened out this spring

RED59
12-29-2008, 04:06 PM
Everyone is overlooking the obvious. The Reds are such admirers of the Cards, they obtained him to bat ninth.

DannyB
12-29-2008, 04:39 PM
I know they've said Willy is the starting center fielder, improves defense, yada yada. But, if Dickerson continues to shine (maybe not as brightly as he did in his first 100 ab's) Dusty will have to consider a platoon in center.

Taveras had 20 points more OB% against lefties last year. If you accept that he'll return to career norm of .330 on base overall, you could expect maybe .340 or .345 playing strictly against lefties. Now how are we looking with a Dickerson/Taveras platoon in center? Not so bad afterall I think.

Still need to find a left fielder and I'm still holding out hope that Walt will come up with something. I'd rather have Burrell or Abreu, but even an Edmonds/Keppinger or Hairston platoon could work. These wouldn't be terrible lineups.

Against rhp
Dickerson
Encarnacion
Votto
Edmonds
Bruce
Phillips
Hernandez
Gonzalez

Against lhp (I'm counting
Taveras
Keppinger/Hairston
Votto
Encarnacion
Bruce
Phillips
Hernandez
Gonzalez

Its going to be Dickerson in left.
Gonzales will hit 2nd if he can walk.Hes right handed and making $5mil or so.
Phillips will be right at home in the 4th spot.

Bip Roberts
12-29-2008, 04:41 PM
Gonzales is going to bat 2nd no matter what he does.

DannyB
12-29-2008, 04:53 PM
Gonzales is going to bat 2nd no matter what he does.

Its etched in stone
I should have said "if he can walk to the plate".

Bip Roberts
12-29-2008, 04:56 PM
Its etched in stone
I should have said "if he can walk to the plate".

thats more like it

WildcatFan
12-29-2008, 05:48 PM
Unless Edwin has a breakout year like we have been predicting for three seasons now. Then I really think Phillips will move up to the second spot and Gonzalez will go to sixth. I am pulling for Edwin like no other this year. I think Dusty wants BP in the two-hole more than we think he does.

DannyB
12-29-2008, 06:10 PM
Unless Edwin has a breakout year like we have been predicting for three seasons now. Then I really think Phillips will move up to the second spot and Gonzalez will go to sixth. I am pulling for Edwin like no other this year. I think Dusty wants BP in the two-hole more than we think he does.
We can always hope.

UPRedsFan
12-29-2008, 06:19 PM
Its going to be Dickerson in left.
Gonzales will hit 2nd if he can walk.Hes right handed and making $5mil or so.
Phillips will be right at home in the 4th spot.

Ok so worst case we could have:

against rhp
Taveras or Hairston (who wasn't happy with him leading off last year?)
Dickerson
Votto
EE
Bruce
Phillips
Gonzalez
Hernandez

against lhp
Taveras or Hairston
Keppinger (800+ OPS against lhp)
Votto
EE
Bruce
Phillips
Gonzalez
Hernandez

gedred69
12-29-2008, 07:29 PM
Unless Edwin has a breakout year like we have been predicting for three seasons now. Then I really think Phillips will move up to the second spot and Gonzalez will go to sixth. I am pulling for Edwin like no other this year. I think Dusty wants BP in the two-hole more than we think he does.

I agree on the Phillips thing. I suspect him in the 2 hole is a strong possibility.

Bip Roberts
12-29-2008, 08:38 PM
I cant wait for Dusty line ups again

DannyB
12-29-2008, 08:39 PM
I agree on the Phillips thing. I suspect him in the 2 hole is a strong possibility.

I would have EE 4th and Phillips 2nd but I don't make out the lineup card.
Shortstops bat 2nd so its a moot point.

WildcatFan
12-29-2008, 08:53 PM
You know, you all keep bringing up this 'shortstops bat second' thing, but if you go back and look at Dusty's lineup cards, he only really did that toward the end of his time in San Francisco with Rich Aurilia, who seems like a pretty typical #2 guy. He had Gonzalez there every once in awhile in Chicago and Kep some last year, but I just think it's odd that you attribute that as a Dusty Baker Law.

Bip Roberts
12-29-2008, 09:55 PM
Its because he would always bat CF/SS 1 or 2 in his line ups.

TheNext44
12-30-2008, 12:52 AM
While I am no great fan of Taveras, I will get great pleasure watching the new faster Reds lineup score more runs than the homer happy lineup of the past. This team will be Exciting to watch, and I guarantee that it score more runs than last years team. The emphasis on defense will also lead to less runs allowed and more wins.
I might not be excited about the player, but I love the new approach. Hopefully after this year all the saber nuts who think this game can be reduced torun differential and nothing more will finally be forced to shut up.

Here is my view of the Reds new approach.

First, I don’t like the term “small ball,” since it really doesn’t describe it well. I think the best term is “Manufactured Wins: vs. “Organic Wins”.

With Manufactured Wins, your are doing just that, manufacturing wins. You are less concerned with year end stats, and run difference than you are with winning each game. You give up the opportunity to score more runs overall, for a much higher percentage chance of scoring runs at this moment, in this one game.

With Organic Wins, you always play the percentages, which means getting on base and slugging the ball, knowing that over a 162 games season, they will play themselves out and you will score more runs, and thus, have a greater chance at winning more games. You might lose some games in the short run, but you should win more in the long run.

Manufactured Wins only works over a whole season if you have stellar pitching and defense. You must, absolutely must have a pitching staff and defense that can consistently keep the other team from blowing you out. This means a solid rotation 1-5, a deep bullpen and a strong defense. I actually think this theory can work, if you have that, but you must have that. If you do, then on offense, you practice aggressive base running, sacrificing often, moving runners over, and lots of base hits.

The great thing about Organic Wins is that your pitching and defense doesn’t need to be stellar, just solid. As long as you keep getting on base, and slugging, then you will score lots of runs and you should win lots of games. The down side, is that you better score lots of runs and be one of the best at it. Being in the middle of the pack, just won’t cut it.

So, the success of this idea of changing the Reds approach from Organic Wins to Manufactured Wins will be more determined by the pitching staff and defense of the team, than the offense.

Handofdeath
12-30-2008, 01:26 AM
Its because he would always bat CF/SS 1 or 2 in his line ups.

Yeah, 3 time Manager of the Year. 34th all time in wins and just 17 wins behind Billy Martin and 45 behind Whitey Herzog. 3 more wins after passing Herzog and he'll be in the Top 30 all time. 42nd all time in winning percentage ahead of Lou Piniella, Terry Francona, Jack McKeon, and Dick Williams.

Yeah that Dusty Baker, what a tool. How could Cincy hire such a dolt? :rolleyes:

Kingspoint
12-30-2008, 02:08 AM
I was using the OBP of the players that leadoff the most for those teams.

08 - Dodgers .327- Pierre, White Sox .334 - O. Cabrera, Red Sox .336 - Elsberry,
07 - D-backs .295 C. Young, Red Sox .324 - Lugo, Cubs .337 - Soriano.

Sorry for the confusion.

If you meant the leadoff hitter for all 162 games, that is another issue and does not directly involve Taveras, since he will not leadoff for all 162 games. In fact, Jocketty has said that Taveras, "potentially a very good leadoff man...in order to do that Taveras has to get his on-base percentage close to .367 like it was in the 2007, rather than the .308 it was last season"

Per Fay: http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a808f15fb-a99b-4009-a9e8-dae10540e1bf&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

This means that if Taveras does not get his act together and OBP .360 or higher, than he will ride the bench and someone else will. Jocketty agrees with you. The Reds will not have a leadoff hitter OBP below .350, if Jocketty has his way.

My point is that you can have a leadoff hitter, who leads,off most of your games, OBP around or below .330 and still make the playoffs.

Cool. Those are the words I need to hear from Jockety. Like I said before. I thought he was doing a "B" job as G.M. ("A" in some areas and "C" in others), until this signing. Seeing those words that you have him saying puts him back into the "B" category for me, though the move itself is still a "D" as I don't trust Dusty Baker.

Those words attributed to Jockety make so much more sense than the signing itself, which threw me for a loop as it was inconsistent from what I've seen in Jockety, past moves that have shown a lot of baseball acumen.

Thanks.

Bip Roberts
12-30-2008, 02:40 AM
Yeah, 3 time Manager of the Year. 34th all time in wins and just 17 wins behind Billy Martin and 45 behind Whitey Herzog. 3 more wins after passing Herzog and he'll be in the Top 30 all time. 42nd all time in winning percentage ahead of Lou Piniella, Terry Francona, Jack McKeon, and Dick Williams.

Yeah that Dusty Baker, what a tool. How could Cincy hire such a dolt? :rolleyes:

Barry Bonds had some pretty good years

redsfandan
12-30-2008, 06:09 AM
Here is my view of the Reds new approach.

First, I don’t like the term “small ball,” since it really doesn’t describe it well. I think the best term is “Manufactured Wins: vs. “Organic Wins”.

With Manufactured Wins, your are doing just that, manufacturing wins. You are less concerned with year end stats, and run difference than you are with winning each game. You give up the opportunity to score more runs overall, for a much higher percentage chance of scoring runs at this moment, in this one game.

With Organic Wins, you always play the percentages, which means getting on base and slugging the ball, knowing that over a 162 games season, they will play themselves out and you will score more runs, and thus, have a greater chance at winning more games. You might lose some games in the short run, but you should win more in the long run.

Manufactured Wins only works over a whole season if you have stellar pitching and defense. You must, absolutely must have a pitching staff and defense that can consistently keep the other team from blowing you out. This means a solid rotation 1-5, a deep bullpen and a strong defense. I actually think this theory can work, if you have that, but you must have that. If you do, then on offense, you practice aggressive base running, sacrificing often, moving runners over, and lots of base hits.

The great thing about Organic Wins is that your pitching and defense doesn’t need to be stellar, just solid. As long as you keep getting on base, and slugging, then you will score lots of runs and you should win lots of games. The down side, is that you better score lots of runs and be one of the best at it. Being in the middle of the pack, just won’t cut it.

So, the success of this idea of changing the Reds approach from Organic Wins to Manufactured Wins will be more determined by the pitching staff and defense of the team, than the offense.

Nice post. That's just another reminder that we need the left side of our defense (ss, 3rd, left) to improve.

redsfandan
12-30-2008, 10:19 AM
Sure if you look at OBP and batting average, Taveras has the advantage. But if you look at OPS and defense, Patterson has the advantage. The point I was refuting was that someone said it is ridiculous to compare Taveras to Patterson because Taveras is so much better. I say that he may be better, but it's at least an arguable point, which is pathetic when you know how bad Patterson is.

It isn't an arguable point to me. Not when CPatt put up a ba/obp of .205/.238 AND a .582 ops which is just incredibly bad especially for someone who is supposed to have power. Taveras wins ba/obp easily. CPatt wins slg % but in 2 of the last 4 years the slg % for Taveras wasn't even that far behind CPatt (.348 vs .341 & .386 vs .382). Last year, Kepp, Hairston, Freel, Valentin, David Ross, Jolbert Cabrera, ... all had a better slg %. The ONLY player with 100+ abs who had a worse slg % was Bako. People can point to CPatts better career slg % but, based on what CPatt did last year, it won't be hard for Taveras to be an improvement.

Imo, we needed another option for center and the possibilities really weren't that great. Taveras probably won't make more than $3million (we hope) and the 2 year deal likely just avoids arbitration IF we want him back. There's not a guarantee that he'll be with us in 2010 anyway cuz he still could always be dealt.

IF he can revert to '07 with above average defense he can help us. And Walt has said that Taveras has to do that to play. So basically, if Walt is good to his word than it's a low risk move with the possibility of a decent payoff. I'm more worried about leftfield.

DannyB
12-31-2008, 06:54 AM
Ok I was a few $$ off

http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2008/12/30/taveras-nets-625-million-from-reds/

Taveras nets $6.25 million from Reds
by Troy Renck on December 30, 2008


Former Rockies centerfielder Willy Taveras not only landed on his feet with the Reds but received a contract that shows their faith in him.

According to information obtained by The Denver Post, Taveras received $6.25 million on his two-year deal. He will make $2.25 million this season and $4 million in 2010. He can make an additional $250,000 this season if he reaches 600 plate appearances.

Also, Taveras will donate 1 percent of his base salary each year to the Reds’ community fund. Taveras was non-tendered this month by the Rockies, which made him a free agent. He led all of baseball with 68 stolen bases.

Bip Roberts
12-31-2008, 08:31 AM
:laugh:

WildcatFan
12-31-2008, 11:35 AM
Well that makes him the eighth (I think) highest-paid player on the team. We've gone past experiment territory here. Here's hoping for a league-average year from Redszone's newest whipping boy.

Hybrid
12-31-2008, 11:38 AM
I'm just holding out hope that we see the 2005-2006 Astros version of Willie T, and not the 07-08 Rockies version...

I(heart)Freel
12-31-2008, 11:45 AM
Well that makes him the eighth (I think) highest-paid player on the team. We've gone past experiment territory here. Here's hoping for a league-average year from Redszone's newest whipping boy.

Considering we only have 9 players under contract, that's not bad...

DannyB
12-31-2008, 12:02 PM
I dont have a problem with the signing, after all he is replacing Cory Patterson.If thats the only move Walt makes for an outfielder then I will be disappointed.

WildcatFan
12-31-2008, 12:30 PM
Considering we only have 9 players under contract, that's not bad...

I'm assuming you mean major league contracts? If so, it's way more than 9.

I(heart)Freel
12-31-2008, 01:09 PM
I'm assuming you mean major league contracts? If so, it's way more than 9.

There are only 9 guys with 2009 contracts signed right now. The others are either arbitration eligible (Edwin, Weathers) or they are league minimum guys, whose contracts will be signed just as a matter of course in the days preceding opening day.

Those 9 are:

Contracts
Cordero 12
Harang 11
Arroyo 9.5
R Hernandez 6
Agon 5.38
Phillips 4.75
Tavares 2.25
Rhodes 2
Lincoln 1.5

Nasty_Boy
12-31-2008, 05:11 PM
I dont have a problem with the signing, after all he is replacing Cory Patterson.If thats the only move Walt makes for an outfielder then I will be disappointed.


I never thought I'd say this, but... I'd rather have Patterson! He would be much less expensive, he plays a better CF, and he can actually get an extra base hit! Taveras got a deal of a lifetime for a player that was just non-tendered and coming off a crap season. The problem now, is that when Willy sucks it up we won't DFA his arse because we owe him 4+ freaking million next season! What a terrible, terrible signing!

DannyB
12-31-2008, 07:16 PM
I never thought I'd say this, but... I'd rather have Patterson! He would be much less expensive, he plays a better CF, and he can actually get an extra base hit! Taveras got a deal of a lifetime for a player that was just non-tendered and coming off a crap season. The problem now, is that when Willy sucks it up we won't DFA his arse because we owe him 4+ freaking million next season! What a terrible, terrible signing!
Well I havn't seen much of Willy so to me anyone would be better. It doesnt matter who leads off unless we can get a big bopper to push Phillips out of cleanup tho.

jmac
12-31-2008, 09:25 PM
we can get a big bopper to push Phillips out of cleanup tho.
I agree with this point. I have seen alot of people's lineups this offseason but unless we sign or trade for someone, I imagine Dusty will keep BP in the 4 slot.

Handofdeath
01-02-2009, 05:20 PM
Barry Bonds had some pretty good years

Yes, but Bonds only batted in one spot of the order and I'm pretty sure he didn't pitch.

LouisvilleCARDS
01-03-2009, 08:56 PM
Man, reading the ORG board of $3 mil a year for Taveras, you would have thought we just signed him to a Manny contract. The amount of crying proportionate to his contract is ridiculous. Crying that much over $3 million per year?! He's not a horrible players, average contract, for an average player. What is the big deal?

LouisvilleCARDS
01-03-2009, 09:05 PM
Oh and those saying he's Patterson II, lemme point out last years stats, pointing our Patterson is likely at this point the rest of his career, and Taveras is still fairly young, and had a career low year:

YEAR NAME G PA LEADOFF AB's OUTR VORP
2008 Corey Patterson 123 392 143 0.7398 -19.3
2008 Willy Taveras 133 538 378 0.6765 1.8

Emin3mShady07
01-03-2009, 10:34 PM
Oh and those saying he's Patterson II, lemme point out last years stats, pointing our Patterson is likely at this point the rest of his career, and Taveras is still fairly young, and had a career low year:

YEAR NAME G PA LEADOFF AB's OUTR VORP
2008 Corey Patterson 123 392 143 0.7398 -19.3
2008 Willy Taveras 133 538 378 0.6765 1.8

Willy taveras may be young, but 2008 really is not that far from his career norms. Taveras has had the following offensive EQAs from 05-08 respectively (which take into consideration both batting and baserunning) - .242, .244, .262, .239. When you weight these numbers per PA, his average offensive EQA comes out to .245, so while his 2008 numbers seemed really bad, they are actually pretty close to what one should expect taveras to contribute, and his true average may be even worse because his 2007 numbers were highly influence by an extremely luck BABIP to LD%. The average EQA for a centerfielder is .268, so needless to say, taveras is well below average. Corey Patterson's EQA last year was .201, so if taveras has a season within range of his career average, he will be an offesive upgrade over patterson from last year. However, I would imagine that a platoon of Dickerson and another RH bat like Gabe Kapler or Rocco Baldelli would be much better than anything that will taveras can produce. He may not be patterson II but he certainly is a waste of assets ($6 million of them) by the reds.

Rusty the Red
01-04-2009, 08:06 AM
Have you guys watched the MLB Network yet? It has been mentioned on there that the Reds were very fortunate to find a CF who can lead off and swipe so many bases. I believe it was Harold Reynolds who said that the Reds had a need and that because the free agent market is down this year they almost stole the player they needed.

I used to be a sports writer, but I have never been a "stat only fan". If I were to look at the upcoming season with a predetermined assumption about each player it would be incredibly boring. I also realize there are people who surprise each year. Look at Phillips - do you remember the reaction when he was signed? "We have two second basemen already and he has never hit over XXX at any level and his cup of coffee in Cleveland says he will never raise his Q factor/bases stolen*his birthday% above 3.123! Wayne is such an idiot." Phillips, who had not lived up to his potential, became the center piece of this Reds club and the GM was not in special ed classes like many of you accused.

Lets take a chill pill and see how Tavares works out. I wish him the very best and hope he makes all of you see how silly and outlandish some of your remarks have been.

CesarGeronimo
01-04-2009, 09:02 AM
Have you guys watched the MLB Network yet? It has been mentioned on there that the Reds were very fortunate to find a CF who can lead off and swipe so many bases. I believe it was Harold Reynolds who said that the Reds had a need and that because the free agent market is down this year they almost stole the player they needed.

I used to be a sports writer, but I have never been a "stat only fan". If I were to look at the upcoming season with a predetermined assumption about each player it would be incredibly boring and there are people who surprise. Look at Phillips - do you remember the reaction when he was signed? "We have two second basemen already and he has never hit over XXX at any level and his cup of coffee in Cleveland says he will never raise his Q factor/bases stolen*his birthday% above 3.123! Wayne is such an idiot." Phillips, who had not lived up to his potential, became the center piece of this Reds club and the GM was not in special ed classes like many of you accused.

Lets take a chill pill and see how Tavares works out. I wish him the very best and hope he makes all of you see how silly and outlandish some of your remarks have been.

There have also been plenty of cases where people on here have tried to point out that the Reds had made a bad acquisition, and guess what - it turned out that their remarks were not so outlandish, but others mocked them for those remarks just the same.

When the Reds signed Eric Milton, for instance, lots of people said it was a bad signing that would hurt the team. Some suggested that Milton gave up too many homers and that would be a problem in GAB. But many others told them to take a chill pill.

"Give the guy and the organization a bit of a break here folks, I just don't think there is any way to please some of you," one person wrote, for example. "The front office goes and and makes some strides, and still people are upset, it's a lose lose for some of you no matter what. Someone will always twist out what the front office does as bad. Be optimistic, the team we love is now better than it was at the start of the off season, is that not a good thing?"

There are, unfortunately, plenty of other examples of bad signings over the past decade of one losing season after another where some of the fans here were right on target from the start about why the signings were bad. There have also been good signings and trades that many people have praised, and admittedly some signings that people criticized that turned out better than they thought. I'm not by any means saying that the Willy Tavares signing is as bad as the Milton signing, but I don't see anything outlandish about pointing out that Tavares has been a poor hitter and so-so defender during his MLB career so far.

CesarGeronimo
10-13-2009, 09:59 PM
Hilirious. People are really overreacting to this deal and it's going to be really funny when this is going to come back and bite everybody slamming it in the arse.

Taveras just turned 27, meaning he is entering his prime. So right there you can diminish the possibility of him declining due to age and since he's been relatively healthy his entire career so don't expect that to change either.

First, look at him from a defensive standpoint. He's got range and speed in CF that we haven't seen since, well, Corey Patterson. But, ignoring Patterson's bat, he was a plus defensively.

Secondly, look at his skills on the basepath. 68 steals last season, which is damn impressive. I know the SABRs won't really acknowledge that since a SB is not worth the risk of an out, but nevertheless, he's definitely a plus on the basepaths.

Now, batting. Is the second-coming of Willie Mays. No, he's not even the second coming of a young Mike Cameron. But he's shown he still has something to bring to the table. Since he's obviously going to be leading off, we can expect an OBP around .330 give or take. Nothing great, but he should be a decent tablesetter. And I'm not going to get caught up in his 2008 stats. The Rockies, as a whole, were just not that great of team. Troy was hurt, Atkins and Holliday weren't up to there usual selves either. Taveras has shown to be respectable in 3 of his 4 years as a pro. This very well could end up being a solid signing for the Reds.

And another thing, if not Taveras, who else? Dickerson? The guy had 100 ABs and were already going to lock him down in CF for the Reds immediate future? Extremely small sample size, especially considering how he was never thought of much as a prospect. And we can't forget about his durability, or lack there of. It's an obvious issue that the Reds should be concerned about. Leave him on the bench, which I think would be the best for the Reds.

And Baldelli? Another serious injury risk. I don't buy that report that came out saying he was misdiagnosed and can play everyday. Talk about trying to get more for your contract.

Yep, now that the season is over, I can see just how really funny it must have been for you when Taveras proved all of us so wrong who were "overreacting" to this deal. I do give you credit, though, for one of the season's funniest rants with the part about it how it was "going to come back and bite everybody slamming it in the arse."

BLEEDS
10-15-2009, 04:48 PM
Yep, it's so funny I forgot to laugh...

Funnier yet, is the fact that he's due $4M in 2010, and nothing short of the "anti-Dusty" clone from a parallel universe showing up and kidnapping the one we have currently, is going to stop him from being pencilled in the opening day lineup batting leadoff.

Ha Ha Ha.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

malcontent
10-18-2009, 01:04 PM
Funnier yet, is the fact that he's due $4M in 2010, and nothing short of the "anti-Dusty" clone from a parallel universe showing up and kidnapping the one we have currently, is going to stop him from being pencilled in the opening day lineup batting leadoff.

Here's hoping that Toothpick leads him off on Opening Day 2010, and thereafter, to everyone's (including Jocketty and Castellini) dismay.

This team is screwed as long as he's calling the shots. Maybe Willy T. will be the final straw we need.

bigredbunter
10-19-2009, 12:05 PM
Yep, it's so funny I forgot to laugh...

Funnier yet, is the fact that he's due $4M in 2010, and nothing short of the "anti-Dusty" clone from a parallel universe showing up and kidnapping the one we have currently, is going to stop him from being pencilled in the opening day lineup batting leadoff.

Ha Ha Ha.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


I predict that WT is outrighted....and Jamie Quirk is then given his walking papers....

Brrrrucccceeee
10-19-2009, 11:37 PM
willy needs to go

Kingspoint
10-20-2009, 01:07 AM
Good to know we can write off two seasons with one signing :thumbup:

Walt Jocketty knows what he is doing, there is a reason he is the GM and not you.

You missed on that one, didn't you?