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Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 05:24 PM
What numbers would Taveras need to put up to be ACCEPTABLE to you naysayers on here? .

He could win the MVP, OB over .400, score 120 runs, and this move will be lampooned regardless. Welcome to the post-split Redszone. Echo-Chambers R Us.

Still, it sure doesn't seem like a very smart move. Certainly an unnecessary one.

Always Red
12-27-2008, 05:25 PM
The 10 most similar players according to baseball-reference. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/sp.cgi?I=taverwi01:Willy+Taveras)

I only recognize three names, and none of them ever scared anyone with the bat.

woy was all over it on the 7th post of this thread:


The Dominican Chuck Carr

how does he do that??

TRF
12-27-2008, 05:25 PM
He only appeared in 97 games that year.

The Reds can still be good with Taveras on their roster, but it's going to be that much harder with him there.

I mentioned that too. Had he appeared in say 140 games he was more likely to be closer to his career norms than stay on the pace he was for that season. so closer to a .325 OBP than .370.

blech.

Caveat Emperor
12-27-2008, 05:34 PM
He could win the MVP, OB over .400, score 120 runs, and this move will be lampooned regardless. Welcome to the post-split Redszone. Echo-Chambers R Us.

It's hard to call it an Echo-Chamber when, really, there isn't much an argument that can be made that Taveras is anything other than a waste of a roster space. The reason you hear things echoing is because it's an issue that most people can reasonably come to the same conclusion on.

Seriously -- if you can make a decent argument for acquiring Taveras as a starting CF / leadoff hitter, then I am all ears.

And no, I don't count any argument that includes the phrase "if used properly" because his role on this team has already been defined by Walt today and by Dusty's history: everyday CF, leadoff hitter.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 05:37 PM
Wow, Walt. It appears your reputation of building a World Series franchise have been destroyed with this single signing.

Let's go for an optimistic turn here:

What numbers would Taveras need to put up to be ACCEPTABLE to you naysayers on here? And let's try to keep the "it'll never happen" comments to a minimum. What's done is done so let's talk about what we need to see in order for the deal to be deemed a success.



If he has a NL average season for a NL centerfielder, I'll be more then happy.

OBP-.333
SLG-.426
OPS-.760

Or roughly, 85-90 Runs Created per 600 PA's.

TRF
12-27-2008, 05:38 PM
What theory? All I've said is that players do go stretches when they don't walk. Players who walk a lot still have stretches where they don't as much. They start struggling at the plate and start forcing things. They run up against a string of pitchers who have above average control. I never said that players who hit for average slump more or less than ones with high walk rates. Only that the ones with high walk rates ALSO slump. And that they slump in regards to hits AND to walks. Every player does. It's how long the slumps are that determine how effective a player they are IMO.

Someone just posted Dunn's monthly walk totals and lo and behold, that month of 10 walks stands out. The rest were fairly consistant, but in regards to walks...I'd call that a slump for taking walks.

So 5 months of consistent BB totals, and you point out the one month his totals dropped. You ignored the WILDLY fluctuating BA totals in the process. you proved the point that BB totals are more slump proof, not disproved it.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 05:38 PM
It's hard to call it an Echo-Chamber when, really, there isn't much an argument that can be made that Taveras is anything other than a waste of a roster space. The reason you hear things echoing is because it's an issue that most people can reasonably come to the same conclusion on.

Seriously -- if you can make a decent argument for acquiring Taveras as a starting CF / leadoff hitter, then I am all ears.

And no, I don't count any argument that includes the phrase "if used properly" because his role on this team has already been defined by Walt today and by Dusty's history: everyday CF, leadoff hitter.

Nah, it's not just this signing, and certainly, there's no defending this particular signing. But the board's just one pile-on after another, IMO--since the split.

Will M
12-27-2008, 05:39 PM
If he has a NL average season for a NL centerfielder, I'll be more then happy.

OBP-.333
SLG-.426
OPS-.760

Or roughly, 85-90 Runs Created per 600 PA's.

sure. CF is a defense first position. if he can provide good defense in CF and OPS .750 in a neutral park then he's fine.

Kc61
12-27-2008, 05:40 PM
The lifetime OBP is spiked by a career year in 2007.

Everyone on Redszone saying he's a poor defender has been justifying that position with defensive metrics.

The Rockies aren't a small market team. they could have easily afforded Taveras. They didn't want him.

Well, personally I know a crap move when I see one.

Taveras just turned 27 and has played four years. Two were above .331 and two were below. The same way you argue that one year "spiked" his OB average, I could argue that last year suppressed his OB average.

His range factor of 2.61 last year was better than, say, Mike Cameron. Seems about average to me.

I assume you know from some source that the Rockies just didn't want Taveras. But often teams decline to arbitrate because they think the player will get more than they are willing to pay, or they have a good replacement, or some other reason. Did the DBacks decide they just didn't want Adam Dunn when they declined arbitration, or was there more to it?

I'm sure you know a bad move when you see one. But for those of us who don't read the future, we take a more "wait and see" attitude.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 05:43 PM
sure. CF is a defense first position. if he can provide good defense in CF and OPS .750 in a neutral park then he's fine.

And if my mother had wheels she'd be a wagon.

He's done it once, and been 100 OPS points away three times.

The one time he did do it, he played in less then 100 games.

RANDY IN INDY
12-27-2008, 05:44 PM
Nah, it's not just this signing, and certainly, there's no defending this particular signing. But the board's just one pile-on after another, IMO--since the split.

Agree.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 05:44 PM
Taveras just turned 27 and has played four years. Two were above .331 and two were below. The same way you argue that one year "spiked" his OB average, I could argue that last year suppressed his OB average.

.

How about if I can show that 08 was just Willy returning to his norm?

Let me use a slightly different number, RC per 100 PA.

05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)

mth123
12-27-2008, 05:45 PM
It's hard to call it an Echo-Chamber when, really, there isn't much an argument that can be made that Taveras is anything other than a waste of a roster space. The reason you hear things echoing is because it's an issue that most people can reasonably come to the same conclusion on.

Seriously -- if you can make a decent argument for acquiring Taveras as a starting CF / leadoff hitter, then I am all ears.

And no, I don't count any argument that includes the phrase "if used properly" because his role on this team has already been defined by Walt today and by Dusty's history: everyday CF, leadoff hitter.

That's pretty much it for me as well. IF Taveras was signed as bench depth to PR late in the game, come in for defense and get an occassioal start, I would merely think this is an overpayment because Hopper or any number of easily available speed guys could play that role. Heck, I'd even be ok if I thought he was the RH half of a CF platoon with Dickerson (though, again, there are better options). But WJ makes it sound as though he's the every day CF and Lead-Off hitter. Its already been pointed out that his one decent year, he was limted to 97 games and less than 400 PA, so he's never had a good year as the full time starter. Its not that he's an acquisition, its that its likely that he's the acquisition.

Caveat Emperor
12-27-2008, 05:47 PM
Agree.

I just think it's a symptom of the underlying problem: the Reds continue to target crap players.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 05:48 PM
I just think it's a symptom of the underlying problem: the Reds continue to target crap players.

I don't know; I think there's a bully pulpit for the favored sons too.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 05:50 PM
I don't know; I think there's a bully pulpit for the favored sons too.


You have been properly introduced to the internets, right?

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 05:50 PM
Its not that he's an acquisition, its that its likely that he's the acquisition.

Why do you say that? I don't have any indication that the Reds are done for the offseason.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 05:51 PM
You have been properly introduced to the internets, right?

I don't understand.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 05:55 PM
I don't understand.


What exactly do you want out of your Redszone?

People are going to complain about roster moves.

People are going to complain about people that complain about roster moves.

People are going to complain about the people complaining about the people complaining about roster moves.

It's the internets.

Kc61
12-27-2008, 05:56 PM
How about if I can show that 08 was just Willy returning to his norm?

Let me use a slightly different number, RC per 100 PA.

05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)


The guy has no power. Such a hitter will always fall short in any statistical category that includes power hitting. For example, SLG and OPS. This type of hiter will always fail in these areas, and RC probably is included. And yes, he had his best year in 2007 and his worst in 2008.

His value is in his speed, ability to get infield hits, base stealing, and overall disruptive impact. If he has a good OBP year, which he has done previously, Taveras will be a good asset. If he OBPs the same as last year, he will be very frustrating and not much help.

IMO, this move is ok, but still begs the question of who will be the main new power hitter. If none, and it's an outfield of Taveras, Dickerson, Hairston, and Bruce, then I expect a very aggressive, fun team but one that probably lacks the power to win.

_Sir_Charles_
12-27-2008, 05:56 PM
So 5 months of consistent BB totals, and you point out the one month his totals dropped. You ignored the WILDLY fluctuating BA totals in the process. you proved the point that BB totals are more slump proof, not disproved it.

Again, that was one player. And you're ignoring the fact that you're comparing a counting stat to a percentage stat. The number for a percentage stat will vary more with smaller changes than a counting stat will appear to be. It's not uncommon for hits to come at a 2 to 1 rate compared to walks. Fewer walks mean a smaller difference in numbers will indicate a wider rate of change. So a change from 10 walks to 15 walks could mean a bigger discrepancy than a 20 point change in BA. (no, I didn't calculate anything there...just stating some examples). You're also using a set time frame of monthly increments. Slumps don't come in monthly intervals, they can be a week or 2 weeks or whatever. My only point was that players with walk-based OBP still get slumps both in regards to hits AND walks. Walks fluctuate just like hits do. Arguing that fact is what I found to be rather insane. I wasn't calling a person here insane, just that perception.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 05:56 PM
What exactly do you want out of your Redszone?

People are going to complain about roster moves.

People are going to complain about people that complain about roster moves.

People are going to complain about the people complaining about the people complaining about roster moves.

It's the internets.

I've seen boards with less unanimity of opinion. It's no big deal.

mth123
12-27-2008, 05:57 PM
Why do you say that? I don't have any indication that the Reds are done for the offseason.

From Tom Servo's post number 210 in this thread:




--Are the Reds still interested in Jerry Hairston Jr.? "Yes. He could end up being the left fielder if we can't get that RBI man, which might be hard to do at this point. We may have a different type of team, where we rely on speed and defense and try to manufacture runs. We've still got some guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark -- (Joey) Votto, (Jay) Bruce and (Edwin) Encarnacion. But we're going to a little bit different kind of team."

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 05:59 PM
From Tom Servo's post number 210 in this thread:

I don't take GMs at their word.

Outfielder prices are going to be the lowest they've been in a while. I'd be surprised if a decent power guy isn't acquired.

TRF
12-27-2008, 06:03 PM
I don't take GMs at their word.

Outfielder prices are going to be the lowest they've been in a while. I'd be surprised if a decent power guy isn't acquired.


I maintain that CF/Leadoff is the red herring to distract fans from the problem at SS, namely having/acquiring one that doesn't suck.

Caveat Emperor
12-27-2008, 06:04 PM
Even if OB is more math than you can personally digest, Taveras is a leadoff hitter who's never scored more than 83 runs in a season. He averages 88 runs per 162 games. In the simplest of terms, he's no good at his job.

In 2008 Taveras stole 68 bases, but only scored 64 runs.

That's unbelievable.

In fact, he is the only player in baseball over the last 9 years (possibly longer, ESPN.com only goes back to 2000 with their sortables and I'm too lazy to go elsewhere) to steal more than 10 bases and not have more Rs than SBs.

_Sir_Charles_
12-27-2008, 06:04 PM
The guy has no power. Such a hitter will always fall short in any statistical category that includes power hitting. For example, SLG and OPS. This type of hiter will always fail in these areas, and RC probably is included. And yes, he had his best year in 2007 and his worst in 2008.

His value is in his speed, ability to get infield hits, base stealing, and overall disruptive impact. If he has a good OBP year, which he has done previously, Taveras will be a good asset. If he OBPs the same as last year, he will be very frustrating and not much help.

IMO, this move is ok, but still begs the question of who will be the main new power hitter. If none, and it's an outfield of Taveras, Dickerson, Hairston, and Bruce, then I expect a very aggressive, fun team but one that probably lacks the power to win.

Agree. With the exception of us lacking the power to win. Bruce, Votto, Phillip, Encarnacion all have very good power. Dickerson & Hernandez have also shown good power. Losing Dunn & Griffey hurts in the HR department, but the improvement of the kids and the improved defense should balance things out considerably I think.

TRF
12-27-2008, 06:10 PM
Again, that was one player. And you're ignoring the fact that you're comparing a counting stat to a percentage stat. The number for a percentage stat will vary more with smaller changes than a counting stat will appear to be. It's not uncommon for hits to come at a 2 to 1 rate compared to walks. Fewer walks mean a smaller difference in numbers will indicate a wider rate of change. So a change from 10 walks to 15 walks could mean a bigger discrepancy than a 20 point change in BA. (no, I didn't calculate anything there...just stating some examples). You're also using a set time frame of monthly increments. Slumps don't come in monthly intervals, they can be a week or 2 weeks or whatever. My only point was that players with walk-based OBP still get slumps both in regards to hits AND walks. Walks fluctuate just like hits do. Arguing that fact is what I found to be rather insane. I wasn't calling a person here insane, just that perception.

Of the top 10 guys last year in BB totals, none of them had an OBP lower than .374.

That isn't a coincidence.

The BA's for those top 10 guys range as low as .231 to as high as .357.

mth123
12-27-2008, 06:10 PM
I don't take GMs at their word.

Outfielder prices are going to be the lowest they've been in a while. I'd be surprised if a decent power guy isn't acquired.

I agree that prices will be down. I don't think that the Reds will get anyone to play here at the low prices. Low prices open the market to a lot more bidders. The Reds will still need to invest quite a bit above the other teams to lure an attractive player IMO. As you pointed out in other threads, this team seems to be focused on going cheap. I don't see the Reds getting anyone decent. I still think a platoon situation might be the best way to get production for the Reds' prices.

Ron Madden
12-27-2008, 06:12 PM
Agree. With the exception of us lacking the power to win. Bruce, Votto, Phillip, Encarnacion all have very good power. Dickerson & Hernandez have also shown good power. Losing Dunn & Griffey hurts in the HR department, but the improvement of the kids and the improved defense should balance things out considerably I think.


Allen... Allen Cuttler is that you?


J/k ;)

Raisor
12-27-2008, 06:13 PM
The Reds created 97 runs in 757 PA's out of the leadoff spot in 2008. Willy T would need 830 PA's to match that.

wheels
12-27-2008, 06:13 PM
Why did they let Patterson go, again?

I'd really rather have him. Seriously.

I really hope they plan on bringing in another outfielder. They still need a LFer, don't they?

Raisor
12-27-2008, 06:16 PM
Why did they let Patterson go, again?

I'd really rather have him. Seriously.

I really hope they plan on bringing in another outfielder. They still need a LFer, don't they?

Didn't you read earlier in the thread? Walt is looking at JHJ for that spot!

Yippie!

TRF
12-27-2008, 06:17 PM
Didn't you read earlier in the thread? Walt is looking at JHJ for that spot!

Yippie!

I just ate eggs.

you do not want me to throw up eggs.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 06:18 PM
I just ate eggs.

you do not want me to throw up eggs.


I do now!

VOMIT!

_Sir_Charles_
12-27-2008, 06:18 PM
nothing to see here

TRF
12-27-2008, 06:24 PM
Okay. What the hell is your point there? If you get a lot of walks you'll have a high OBP? Thanks for the enlightenment. Or are you trying to compare Taveras to those top 10 BB guys? I certainly don't recall anybody saying Taveras was an above average player at the plate.

So he's not above average at the plate.

Why the hell would anyone want him leading off then?

My point is simple. Taveras cannot sustain a high OBP, a prerequisite for being a leadoff hitter without gaudy BB totals.

Taveras will never BB more than 40 times. He will K anywhare from 80-100 times and not walk more than 40. Add to the mix his COMPLETE lack of power and you have a recipe for a pretty bad ball player.

mth123
12-27-2008, 06:25 PM
From Fay's blog:




Here's a little bit of Willy Taveras from a conference call (I believe he was in the security line at the Miami airport at the time):

--"It's a young team. I think I fit in well. I'll come in and play hard. I'm happy to play for Dusty (Baker)."

--"It's an opportunity to play every day, no matter what happened the day before."
--"A couple of team were interested. The best situation was with the Reds. i really like playing in the Central division. I feel lucky to play for Dusty."

--"I got a call from agent (shortly after he was non-tendered by Colorado). He said the Reds were really interested."

--On Jamie Quirk, Reds special assistant: "Jamie knows me really well. He always tells me to stay on top of my game. He knows what kind of talent I have."

--On Dusty Baker: "I've heard from plenty of guys that he lets you do what you do well. I'm looking forward to playing for him."

Spring~Fields
12-27-2008, 06:25 PM
The Reds lineup could not hit right handed pitching last year, the pitching where they get the most AB/PA against.

Willy Taveras
2008 vs. Right .245 .303 .291 .594
2007 vs. Right .304 .351 .357 .708
2006 vs. Right .285 .338 .345 .683
2005 vs. Right .312 .344 .351 .695

Ramon Hernandez
2008 vs. Right .245 .305 .421 .726
2007 vs. Right .261 .334 .366 .700
2006 vs. Right .270 .324 .444 .768
2005 vs. Right .304 .333 .464 .797

Anyone see any improvement for the Reds lineup/batters against the right handed pitchers?
Someone show me, I just can’t see it. Plus Baker we have seen is the master strategist.

Will M
12-27-2008, 06:29 PM
Walt Jocketty on the Willy Taveras signing:

--"He fills a couple of needs. He gives us very good defense in center field, and he's potentially a very good leadoff man."

Jocketty sadi in order to do that Taveras has to get his on-base percentage close to .367 like it was in the 2007, rather than the .308 it was last season: "He needs to get back to way he was swinging the bat and getting on base a couple of years ago. Jamie Quirk, who's with us now was with Willy in Colorado, feels like Willy can get back to that."

Raisor
12-27-2008, 06:29 PM
Sir Charles

Who had the better season (these are real players from a real past season)?

1. .324/.381/.534 669 PA's
2. .266/.388/.569 681 PA's.

It's actually a trick question. They had essentially the same season, they just went about it in different ways.

SteelSD
12-27-2008, 06:31 PM
My only point was that players with walk-based OBP still get slumps both in regards to hits AND walks.

What you're not getting is that high-IsoD players do not turn into production black holes as often as low-IsoD players. That's the point original point and you've done nothing to effectively contest it. Because Taveras has so little plate discipline, he's a complete negative when the hits aren't falling. That's not the case with high-IsoD players, because they have a highly-developed secondary on-base skill set.

top6
12-27-2008, 06:34 PM
Just wanted to pile on and say this is a horrible and embarassing (for the people who work for Reds - not for me) signing.

This:


-"It's an opportunity to play every day, no matter what happened the day before."

also scares the crap out of me; very reminiscent of the Arroyo comment when he signed about how there is no pressure to win here. (Note, the Reds have not won since that time.)

Nothing has changed and nothing ever will. This is just a horrible, horrible organization, with 3 owners in a row who either don't get it or don't care about winning. Pretty sad state of affairs when Marge Schott is the best Cincinnati sports owner in almost 2 decades (since Paul Brown died).

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 06:36 PM
Something tells me that a deal for Dye was worked out but got shot down by Cast because of money. Walt's going to have to get used to working in relative poverty. Not sure this is the way to do it, though. I think it's likely that we'll see another salary get dumped before any offense gets added.

Bronson Arroyo I'm lookin' at you.

top6
12-27-2008, 06:39 PM
Walks are a pause in a rally...a hit builds the momentum emotionally.

So your response to the mountain of statistics and numbers thrown at you is that walks are not as good as hits because walks are less emotional?


Losing Dunn & Griffey hurts in the HR department, but the improvement of the kids and the improved defense should balance things out considerably I think.
Even if you are right, and the improved speed and defense does "balance ... out" the loss of Griffey and Dunn's offensive production, doesn't that mean the Reds have a losing season again? They need to replace Griffey and Dunn AND add something else.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 06:41 PM
So your response to the mountain of statistics and numbers thrown at you is that walks are not as good as hits because walks are less emotional?


Even if you are right, and the improved speed and defense does "balance ... out" the loss of Griffey and Dunn's offensive production, doesn't that mean the Reds have a losing season again? They need to replace Griffey and Dunn AND add something else.

They don't need to "replace" Griffey. He was a sinkhole last season when you consider his offense measured against his defense. I think the biggest single improvement everyone will notice next season is Griffey being replaced by Bruce.

top6
12-27-2008, 06:44 PM
Something tells me that a deal for Dye was worked out but got shot down by Cast because of money. Walt's going to have to get used to working in relative poverty. Not sure this is the way to do it, though. I think it's likely that we'll see another salary get dumped before any offense gets added.

Bronson Arroyo I'm lookin' at you.

I don't know about this. I have a lot of smart Sox fans friends, and none of them were excited about the Dye trade. I don't think the Reds really had anything that they wanted (that the Reds were willing to give away, that is).

I loathe the Taveras signing for a lot of reasons, but I am not sure there is that much they could have done. Who is an outfielder they could have signed? It actually would have been nice - for me - if they had done nothing instead of something - like this - that is really just a PR move, so the casual fan (and the Allen Cutlers of the world) can say they are doing something.

In any event, I certainly hope you are wrong that he needs to shed salary, but in this economy anything is possible and I honestly have no idea where most of Castelinis's money was made (and whether he is in serious trouble).

Raisor
12-27-2008, 06:46 PM
If Willy T gets 650-700 PA's in the leadoff spot in 2008, it's going to be a net loss of somewhere around 10-15 runs over last year.

That negates the positive of the Hernandez for Bako tradeoff.

Votto might have 5-10 more runs in him over 08.

That's going to be a lot of pressure on Bruce and whomever plays LF.

TRF
12-27-2008, 06:47 PM
I'd have preferred to gamble on Dickerson in CF. Let one of the kids win the LF/1B/3B job and find a real SS.

Instead we'll get to watch a certainty in CF (certain to be bad), gamble on Dickerson in LF and not address SS at all.


yippee.

Reds Fanatic
12-27-2008, 06:47 PM
If this team goes into next season with Taveras as the everyday CF and Hairston as the everyday LF this could be one of the worst offensive teams the Reds have had in a long time. It is amazing this team once again fails to realize the value of OBP in a leadoff hitter.

mth123
12-27-2008, 06:49 PM
Something tells me that a deal for Dye was worked out but got shot down by Cast because of money. Walt's going to have to get used to working in relative poverty. Not sure this is the way to do it, though. I think it's likely that we'll see another salary get dumped before any offense gets added.

Bronson Arroyo I'm lookin' at you.

I think you are right about the OF market and Walt knows it. $11 Million for Dye in 2009 is going to be way over-priced and dealing prospects be it Bailey or anyone else for the right to pay it is nuts. The problem is that lower prices means that Dollars become less of a differentiation point for players choosing teams. The difference in dollars at lower dollars isn't as big. That means players will use other factors (winning, proximity to home, etc.) and the Reds lose there as well. This team will still need to pay through the nose to get a difference maker. I agree that the budget has been tightened and I just don't see the Reds getting anyone substantial. I think Hairston may be the best the team can do if they can even get him. Maybe a deal for somebody like a Luke Scott or a FRed Lewis could be in the works. I still think EdE (or Votto) may be the best option. Get a corner IF.

mth123
12-27-2008, 06:52 PM
I'd have preferred to gamble on Dickerson in CF. Let one of the kids win the LF/1B/3B job and find a real SS.

Instead we'll get to watch a certainty in CF (certain to be bad), gamble on Dickerson in LF and not address SS at all.


yippee.

Kind of how I feel.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 06:53 PM
I think Hairston may be the best the team can do if they can even get him. .
Hairston's last 589 AB's.

2006-08
.254/.315/.366, .681 OPS (and yes, this includes 2008 numbers)

paintmered
12-27-2008, 06:56 PM
Whelp, I just found out about the news. The Reds can be a real killjoy.

mth123
12-27-2008, 06:58 PM
Hairston's last 589 AB's.

2006-08
.254/.315/.366, .681 OPS (and yes, this includes 2008 numbers)

I know. Ick.

SteelSD
12-27-2008, 06:59 PM
Jocketty sadi in order to do that Taveras has to get his on-base percentage close to .367 like it was in the 2007, rather than the .308 it was last season: "He needs to get back to way he was swinging the bat and getting on base a couple of years ago. Jamie Quirk, who's with us now was with Willy in Colorado, feels like Willy can get back to that."

Also from Jocketty:

"He (Taveras) needs to bunt more and keep the ball on the ground and get some infield hits. I don’t know if he tried to hit home runs, or what, but Jamie think he changed his approach and that we can get him back on track."

Great. So a guy who already had a chance to "fix" Taveras over a full season now thinks he can "fix" the guy in a new location. Here's Taveras over his time with Colorado:

2008 GB%: 51.5%
2007 GB%: 51.5%

2008 FB%: 28.4%
2007 FB%: 31.6%

2008 IFH%: 10.3%
2007 IFH%: 10.9%

2008 BUH%: 40.7%
2007 BUH%: 64.4%

One of those things is not like the other...but most of those things are almost exactly the same...

IFH% speaks to the percentage of Infield Hits versus total and BUH% shows us the percentage of non-sac Bunts resulting in Base Hits. And there's the sore thumb from 2007- a non-repeatable 64.4% BUH%. Here's Taveras career:

2008: 40.7%
2007: 64.4%
2006: 42.9%
2005: 47.7%

Taveras did nothing to change his freakin' approach. The results were almost identical for BIP rates excepting a slight increase in Taveras' 2008 Line Drive rate versus 2007 (20.1% versus 16.9%). Jamie Quirk is flat out looney and those quotes read as if Jocketty is sitting next to him in a padded cell. He needs to hit the ball on the ground more? His 2008 GB rate was identical to 2007. Taveras hit a lower percentage of fly balls, and his Line Drive rate actually went up slightly. What he didn't do (and couldn't be expected to) is leg out an additional 24 percent of his bunt attempts like he did in 2007.

Now we know for a fact where most of that BABIP spike came from and it has nothing to do with a "changed approach". Jocketty shouldn't have brought him in, but should definitely be expected to know enough about Taveras' game that he wouldn't cite Jamie Quirk's fairy dust "approach" story as a reason to look for improvement. In fact, the next time Quirk suggests something I'd do the exact opposite if I were Jocketty.

sonny
12-27-2008, 06:59 PM
I, for one, am excited about this signing.


Just kidding, this is crap.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 07:05 PM
I don't know about this. I have a lot of smart Sox fans friends, and none of them were excited about the Dye trade. I don't think the Reds really had anything that they wanted (that the Reds were willing to give away, that is).

I loathe the Taveras signing for a lot of reasons, but I am not sure there is that much they could have done. Who is an outfielder they could have signed? It actually would have been nice - for me - if they had done nothing instead of something - like this - that is really just a PR move, so the casual fan (and the Allen Cutlers of the world) can say they are doing something.

In any event, I certainly hope you are wrong that he needs to shed salary, but in this economy anything is possible and I honestly have no idea where most of Castelinis's money was made (and whether he is in serious trouble).

The Reds have the money; heck, all teams do. The economy is simply a pretext to spend less.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 07:07 PM
Here are the career OPS's from the 11 guys that will probably get the most PA's in 09 as of today.
Dickerson (08)1021
Votto 879 (07-08)
-----------NL AVG 1B 837
EE (06-08) 809
-----------NL AVG LF 802
EE (Career) 801
-----------NL AVG RF786
BP (06-08) 776
-----------NL AVG 3B 774
Bruce (08) 767
-----------NL AVG CF 760
Hernandez (06-08) 755
Hernandez (career) 747---NL AVG 2B 747
A-Gon (06-07) 745
Hopper (career) 738
Hannigan (08) 735
------------NL AVG SS 734
Kepp (06-08) 733
BP (career)733
Kep (career)728
------------NL AVG C 712
(JHJ 700) not signed

A-Gon (career)695
Willy T (06-08) 669
Willy T (career) 668

Not an inspiring group.

TRF
12-27-2008, 07:08 PM
The Reds have the money; heck, all teams do. The economy is simply a pretext to spend less.

I stated much the same thing in Krusty's Manny thread. Money isn't the issue in regards to one or two players. It's how you spend it, big or small.

This was spending dumb.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 07:13 PM
Here are the career OPS's from the 11 guys that will probably get the most PA's in 09 as of today.

Votto 879
EE 801

Bruce 767
Hernandez 747
Hopper 738
Hannigan 735
BP 733
Kep 728
(JHJ 700) not signed

A-Gon 695
Willy T 668

Not an inspiring group.

Nope, but a group of mostly under-30 hitters (and considering A-Gon's not likely to grab a single bat with the club in 09, that leaves Hernandez as the lone 30 + guy on offense). Folks wanted "young," well, they're getting it.

blumj
12-27-2008, 07:24 PM
How do opposing defenses let a guy reach on almost 65% of bunt hit attempts?

Strikes Out Looking
12-27-2008, 07:28 PM
I'm with Krusty on this one. In '09 the Reds are going to be depending on their pitching if they want to compete and of course I'd love to have a RH hitting LF that will hit 30 homers, drive in 100 and play gold glove defense. But here is why I'm not opposed to this deal and definitely not suicidal:

1. I like Dickerson, but he seems to like the trainer's room--and I'd rather have Willie T and Dickerson and hope Dickerson can beat him out and then stay healthy.

2. Willie Taveras's numbers in 2008, while fairly lousy, were still better than one Corey Patterson.

3. Hairston is no 1.) guarantee to sign with the Reds, 2.) repeat his 2008 numbers and 3.) stay healthy enough to get 500 PA's.

4. The amount spent on this contract is nothing that would stop the Reds if a better option came along--and they still need a LF.

kpresidente
12-27-2008, 07:30 PM
Just saw this.

My thoughts? This...is...awful.

Always Red
12-27-2008, 07:32 PM
I stated much the same thing in Krusty's Manny thread. Money isn't the issue in regards to one or two players. It's how you spend it, big or small.

This was spending dumb.

Any word yet on how much Taveras signed for?

Obviously, part of the value is in how much they spent. If 2 years, $5 million or less, that's one thing (yes, I know- for some of us here, any resources spent on Willie is a waste). If 2 years at $5 million a year- then it's really not good. Well, really dumb.

Taveras made $1,950,000 last year, according to: http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/taverwi01.shtml

mbgrayson
12-27-2008, 07:33 PM
Well, I can think of ONE good thing to say: Taveras put up awesome numbers in GABP last year: .500/.600/.625 for an OPS of 1.225. Of course he only had 10 plate appearances....but if he can hit that well here in 2009....;)

Krusty
12-27-2008, 07:35 PM
You know it is a slow offseason when we are all getting bent out of shape over the Reds acquiring Willy Taveras. I hate to see it when Jocketty acquires that righthanded hitter for the middle of the lineup.

blumj
12-27-2008, 07:38 PM
Well, I can think of ONE good thing to say: Taveras put up awesome numbers in GABP last year: .500/.600/.625 for an OPS of 1.225. Of course he only had 10 plate appearances....but if he can hit that well here in 2009....;)
Answer: They gave up an extra base hit to Willy Taveras.

Question: How bad was the Reds defense last season?

Raisor
12-27-2008, 07:38 PM
2. Willie Taveras's numbers in 2008, while fairly lousy, were still better than one Corey Patterson.



In 2008, Willy T was worth about +3 runs per 100 PA's then C-Patt.

Willy T would have needed to have a much better year in 08 to even reach "fairly lousy".

Raisor
12-27-2008, 07:40 PM
You know it is a slow offseason when we are all getting bent out of shape over the Reds acquiring Willy Taveras. I hate to see it when Jocketty acquires that righthanded hitter for the middle of the lineup.

Krusty, have you actually read any of the stats the rest of us have been posting?

It's not like we're coming into this without any ammo.

Krusty
12-27-2008, 07:43 PM
Krusty, have you actually read any of the stats the rest of us have been posting?

It's not like we're coming into this without any ammo.

I'm not arguing with the stats. But it isn't like we signed this guy to a five year deal for 25 million. I didn't see this much outrage over the Reds signing Lincoln to a two year deal and I thought that was more of a mistake.

kpresidente
12-27-2008, 07:50 PM
Basically we replaced David Ross and Ryan Freel with Ramon Hernandez and Willie Tavares.

Is that even a lateral move?

Raisor
12-27-2008, 07:50 PM
I'm not arguing with the stats. But it isn't like we signed this guy to a five year deal for 25 million. I didn't see this much outrage over the Reds signing Lincoln to a two year deal and I thought that was more of a mistake.

Do you get that this guy is going to have a net reduction on the team's RS/RA, or at the most no change at all? The Reds created 97 runs out of the leadoff spot last year. With a two year deal, and with what Walt has said in the Press Relase, this guy is going to leadoff in 09. If this guy gets 600-700 PA's, he going to create about 65-80 runs.

That's not going to help the team. That's going to be a net loss in RS, something the team is going to have problems doing anyway.

This team, even if it gets a "middle of the order RHB" type guy is going to have a real problem scoring 675 runs in 09.

If Walt winds up with JHJ out in LF, the team isn't going to score 650 runs.

Caveat Emperor
12-27-2008, 07:50 PM
I'm not arguing with the stats. But it isn't like we signed this guy to a five year deal for 25 million. I didn't see this much outrage over the Reds signing Lincoln to a two year deal and I thought that was more of a mistake.

It's because Lincoln is a middle reliever, destined to see 1 inning of work in roughly 30-40% of the games this coming year.

Willy Taveras, given Dusty's managerial tendencies and Jocketty's comments, as long as he's healthy, will start ballgame after ballgame for the Reds over the next two seasons. Given days off, about 150 games next season, 9 innings per game, 3 or 4 PAs per game.

Every game, you'll hear the Public Address announcer say "Leading off for the Reds, the center fielder WILLY TAVERAS!" And, roughly 70% of the time, the Reds will begin the game with nobody on, 1 out.

Ron Madden
12-27-2008, 08:02 PM
Do you get that this guy is going to have a net reduction on the team's RS/RA, or at the most no change at all? The Reds created 97 runs out of the leadoff spot last year. With a two year deal, and with what Walt has said in the Press Relase, this guy is going to leadoff in 09. If this guy gets 600-700 PA's, he going to create about 65-80 runs.

That's not going to help the team. That's going to be a net loss in RS, something the team is going to have problems doing anyway.

This team, even if it gets a "middle of the order RHB" type guy is going to have a real problem scoring 675 runs in 09.

If Walt winds up with JHJ out in LF, the team isn't going to score 650 runs.



NOTHING good can come of this.

:(

_Sir_Charles_
12-27-2008, 08:03 PM
Sir Charles

Who had the better season (these are real players from a real past season)?

1. .324/.381/.534 669 PA's
2. .266/.388/.569 681 PA's.

It's actually a trick question. They had essentially the same season, they just went about it in different ways.

Who had the better season? Who knows. The info you provided doesn't even come close to answering that question. If player 1 played gold glove caliber defense and player 2 was a statue out there, that would change things a bit. If player 1 scored 100 runs and player 2 only scored 10 runs. There are a ton of factors obviously. Now if you want to know which of the 2 I'd want based ONLY on those limited stats...I'd take #1 because he'd have the better odds of driving in runs by having more hits. But who knows with only that data.


What you're not getting is that high-IsoD players do not turn into production black holes as often as low-IsoD players. That's the point original point and you've done nothing to effectively contest it. Because Taveras has so little plate discipline, he's a complete negative when the hits aren't falling. That's not the case with high-IsoD players, because they have a highly-developed secondary on-base skill set.

Okay, I'll buy that they're not black holes AS OFTEN...but they're still black holes at times. And in regards to Taveras, I think he'll be more like he was in 2007, but if he's not...we still needed OF'ers, I don't want to rush the kids if they're not ready, and I don't see any options out there that are better in the FA market. At least none that'll be short term contracts for reasonable dollars.



So your response to the mountain of statistics and numbers thrown at you is that walks are not as good as hits because walks are less emotional?


Even if you are right, and the improved speed and defense does "balance ... out" the loss of Griffey and Dunn's offensive production, doesn't that mean the Reds have a losing season again? They need to replace Griffey and Dunn AND add something else.

Well, first off I have yet to see a "mountain" of statistics thrown at me. Secondly, I didn't say that walks are only less emotional. Walks fail to advance runners more than one base. Walks fail to force the defense to make a play. And walks don't generate managerial options. They're far from bad...but they're also far from being as good as a hit.

Yes, I do think we need to add more to be a winning team. Just not as much as some people here seem to think. I see an improved rotation, an improved bullpen, an improved defense over last season's starting team. I see young players with more MLB time under thier belts. And I see a young team coming together and jelling. If they start the season off well, I can see them gaining confidence VERY quickly. I think they'll be improved from last season, but still a year away from the playoffs. I don't see ANY moves out there THIS off-season that puts them in the playoffs for certain. But I can easily see us passing the Astros, Cards & Brewers for second place.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 08:03 PM
NOTHING good can come of this.

:(

Don't forget, Galctus and I BLAME YOU!

mth123
12-27-2008, 08:05 PM
I'm not arguing with the stats. But it isn't like we signed this guy to a five year deal for 25 million. I didn't see this much outrage over the Reds signing Lincoln to a two year deal and I thought that was more of a mistake.

If Mike Lincoln pitches well its a good sign. If not he'll get buried in mop-up duty. Its not the same as signing the definition of suck and giving him 600 PA.

TRF
12-27-2008, 08:09 PM
Here is another thing. Taveras isn't going to suddenly develop power. He's moving to a park that suppresses doubles and triples. He'll need to hit .300+ AND increase his BB totals to career highs, 60+, in order for him to be even remotely effective. He needs to be something he's never been.

for 2 years.

Ron Madden
12-27-2008, 08:09 PM
Don't forget, Galctus and I BLAME YOU!


I'll hush now.

:runaway:

Raisor
12-27-2008, 08:09 PM
Who had the better season? Who knows. The info you provided doesn't even come close to answering that question. If player 1 played gold glove caliber defense and player 2 was a statue out there, that would change things a bit. If player 1 scored 100 runs and player 2 only scored 10 runs. There are a ton of factors obviously. Now if you want to know which of the 2 I'd want based ONLY on those limited stats...I'd take #1 because he'd have the better odds of driving in runs by having more hits. But who knows with only that data.



.


Player 1. 101 Runs, 99 RBI
Player 2. 105 Runs, 102 RBI

Player 1 34 more hits then player 2, but 3 less RBI.

Runs Created
Player 1 115 RC
Player 2 132 RC

Player 2 had about 20 more PA's or so.

Player 2 was slightly better, but essentially they had the same season.

Which is the point. I don't care HOW a guy creates runs, just that he creates them.

TRF
12-27-2008, 08:13 PM
Okay, I'll buy that they're not black holes AS OFTEN...but they're still black holes at times. And in regards to Taveras, I think he'll be more like he was in 2007, but if he's not...we still needed OF'ers, I don't want to rush the kids if they're not ready, and I don't see any options out there that are better in the FA market. At least none that'll be short term contracts for reasonable dollars.

Why?

What reason could you possibly have for thinking a player will repeat his career year, one limited to under 100 games, when the majority of his career played in hitter friendly parks has been abysmal?

BoydsOfSummer
12-27-2008, 08:20 PM
I should be pissed about this, but somehow I'm not. They have beaten me down. I knew a month ago that it would take a miracle for the Reds to "be competitive" in '09. This move doesn't change anything. The one thing keeping me interested at all is that we do have some exciting young players that will be fun to watch as they mature.

My girlfriend and her son are Red Sox fans. Maybe it's time....

_Sir_Charles_
12-27-2008, 08:26 PM
Player 1. 101 Runs, 99 RBI
Player 2. 105 Runs, 102 RBI

Player 1 34 more hits then player 2, but 3 less RBI.

Runs Created
Player 1 115 RC
Player 2 132 RC

Player 2 had about 20 more PA's or so.

Player 2 was slightly better, but essentially they had the same season.

Which is the point. I don't care HOW a guy creates runs, just that he creates them.

I agree. However, I still don't care for certain stats in regards to evaluating a PLAYER. Runs scored...yes, it's up to the hitter to get on base in the first place, but then he's dependant upon his teammates to drive him in and add to that runs scored stat. Crappy players hitting behind him...and his RC stat doesn't reflect how good of a season the player had. A good portion of the saberstats out there only look at the individual player. It's a team game and while one player may be poor in some important stat...he may help the team in the long run by complimenting the other players as a whole. Better defense improves the pitching, but that improved pitching isn't reflected in that defensive player's stats. A speed threat on the basepaths doesn't only generate additional scoring opportunities, but it also distracts the pitcher and can force him to rush his deliveries and make mistakes...enhancing his teammates chances of pounding the guy. And again, that wouldn't show up in that players' stats by distracting the pitcher.

I'm not saying I love the Taveras signing...but I certainly don't hate it. We needed an OF'er and we DEFINITELY needed some speed and smarts on the basepaths. While our team SB stats might have been respectable last year, it was our stupid mistakes on the bases that ran us out of MANY innings...and again, many of those don't show up in the stats. Stats are helpful, but they rarely tell the full story.

_Sir_Charles_
12-27-2008, 08:29 PM
Why?

What reason could you possibly have for thinking a player will repeat his career year, one limited to under 100 games, when the majority of his career played in hitter friendly parks has been abysmal?

Sorry, I wasn't meaning to say he'll repeat a career year, but rather to bounce back to his norm. Last year was a below average season other than the SB's. He's normally hit for a good average (especially compared to what we've been seeing from our OF'er....280 looks great compared to a .230). While I'd love to see him show more patience and draw more walks, I'll settle for a nice average, good defense and some solid SB numbers.

boognish
12-27-2008, 08:35 PM
The Reds always manage to make signings I dread every offseason no matter the individuals in charge.

Epic Fail.

mth123
12-27-2008, 08:36 PM
The worst quote of 2008. WJ from an article on MLB.com




"With Bruce and Taveras, we have two of our outfield spots filled," Jocketty said. "We'd like to add another hitter, but if we don't, we have good pitching and defense and speed. We could find ways to manufacture runs without a big RBI guy."



Taveras wasn't brought in to be part of the mix. He's your main offensive acquisition. The team is worse now than it was this morning. Patterson, Ross, Bako, Griffey, Castro, Majewski, Milton and Fogg were all addition by subtraction in 2008. Taveras is subtraction by addition.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 08:40 PM
and his RC stat doesn't reflect how good of a season the player had. A good portion of the saberstats out there only look at the individual player. It's a team game and while one player may be poor in some important stat...he may help the team in the long run by complimenting the other players as a whole. .

That's why the RC stat is so good.

In 2008, the Reds scored 704 runs but "created" 724.1 runs, a difference of 0.15 runs a game.

We can look at a player's RC and know with about a 97% accuracy, how many runs that player contributed to the team.

Joey Votto created 96.3 of the team's 724.1 Runs Created in 08 (so about 93.4 actual runs). We can use that to figure out how an offense works, and we can measure that against other teams/players.

With a 97-98% accuracy, we KNOW that Willy T has produced about 65 runs per 600 PA's in three of his four seasons. We KNOW that in 07 he was at around 85 runs. We can compare those numbers to other CFers and we can be pretty darn certain what he's going to do in 09. Sure, he could blow up and have an average year, but the odds aren't good. At. All.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 08:42 PM
Sorry, I wasn't meaning to say he'll repeat a career year, but rather to bounce back to his norm. .


Look at the numbers I've posted multiple times.

His 08 WAS a bounce back. He was within 2 runs created per 600 PA's from his 05 and 06 numbers.

TRF
12-27-2008, 08:43 PM
I agree. However, I still don't care for certain stats in regards to evaluating a PLAYER. Runs scored...yes, it's up to the hitter to get on base in the first place, but then he's dependant upon his teammates to drive him in and add to that runs scored stat. Crappy players hitting behind him...and his RC stat doesn't reflect how good of a season the player had. A good portion of the saberstats out there only look at the individual player. It's a team game and while one player may be poor in some important stat...he may help the team in the long run by complimenting the other players as a whole. Better defense improves the pitching, but that improved pitching isn't reflected in that defensive player's stats. A speed threat on the basepaths doesn't only generate additional scoring opportunities, but it also distracts the pitcher and can force him to rush his deliveries and make mistakes...enhancing his teammates chances of pounding the guy. And again, that wouldn't show up in that players' stats by distracting the pitcher.

I'm not saying I love the Taveras signing...but I certainly don't hate it. We needed an OF'er and we DEFINITELY needed some speed and smarts on the basepaths. While our team SB stats might have been respectable last year, it was our stupid mistakes on the bases that ran us out of MANY innings...and again, many of those don't show up in the stats. Stats are helpful, but they rarely tell the full story.

You can't steal 1B.

You seem to be combining Taveras 2007 season with his 2008 season, hoping that the best from both seasons combine to form a good player.

24 players in the NL scored 90+ runs last year. The lowest OBP was .333 by Stephen Drew, but he hit 21 HR's. He offset his low OBP with power. This goes to what Raisor was saying about how he didn't care how runs are created so long as they are.

I'd love nothing more than to see Taveras hit .320, OBP .365+ steal 68 bases, raising his speed adjusted SLG to over .530.

It's not going to happen, but I'd certainly love it.

SteelSD
12-27-2008, 08:49 PM
Look at the numbers I've posted multiple times.

His 08 WAS a bounce back. He was within 2 runs created per 600 PA's from his 05 and 06 numbers.

If you equalize the BUH% assuming the same number of Bunt attempts, Taveras' 2007 OBP drops to .333. Then if we add in the Caught Stealing numbers from that season, his speed-adjusted OBP drops to .304.

That's quite frightening.

remdog
12-27-2008, 08:59 PM
I'm not even going to begin to read through the gazillion comments already in this thread.

All I can say is, Walt, I've been behind ya' so far but wth this silly, desperate move to achieve nothing, you've deeply disappointed me and make me now question your ability to build a winning team.

I'm going to have to take a pause in my support of you and seriously reconsider whether or not you are up to the task.

Rem

SteelSD
12-27-2008, 09:00 PM
We needed an OF'er and we DEFINITELY needed some speed and smarts on the basepaths.

Can you please explain how basepath speed helps when it's sitting in the dugout after an inordinate amount of Plate Appearances? Your entire position doubles back upon itself when we run into that not-so-tiny fundamental point.

He's fast, but doesn't get on base so the speed argument is pretty much moot. Willy Taveras doesn't put any pressure on the opposing defense. He only pressures his own offense because they have to somehow make up for his lack of anything resembling even a mediocre offensive game.

IslandRed
12-27-2008, 09:06 PM
All I can say is, Walt, I've been behind ya' so far but wth this silly, desperate move to achieve nothing, you've deeply disappointed me and make me now question your ability to build a winning team.

Well, we know he CAN build a winning team, but if he does it here, this probably won't be one of the moves responsible for it.

Ron Madden
12-27-2008, 09:12 PM
BF and his buddies over at Reds.com love this move.


That should tell ya somethin'.


;)

remdog
12-27-2008, 09:13 PM
I thought the Willie Tavaras was pathetic in Houston. I thought he was wasted space in Colorado. Now he is pathetic wasted space in Cincinnati.

What sins did Reds fans commit to deserve this? Somewhere along the line we clearly P.O.'d the baseball gods. :confused:

Rem

Raisor
12-27-2008, 09:13 PM
BF and his buddies over at Reds.com love this move.


That should tell ya somethin'.


;)

So I guess THEY are thanking YOU!

Ron Madden
12-27-2008, 09:15 PM
So I guess THEY are thanking YOU!

I tell ya I'm innocent. Innocent I tell ya.


;)

cincinnati chili
12-27-2008, 09:24 PM
If Cincinnati Chili were the manager of this team, he'd love to have Wily as his fourth or fifth outfielder. He's good to insert in late innings, and for spot starts behind pitchers who give up a lot of fly balls. But like Clint Hurdle, Dusty Baker will start him whenever he's healthy, despite having better options.

When the Rockies went on their mad September run in 2007, winning 14 of their last 15, Wily was on the shelf.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/schedule?team=col&season=2007
Spilborghs's offense more than made up for Wily's superior defense.

I'm not a long term believer in Dickerson, but Wily is not the answer, particularly if a bona fide left fielder isn't brought in.

remdog
12-27-2008, 09:28 PM
When the Rockies went on their mad September run in 2007, winning 14 of their last 15, Wily was on the shelf.

So, I guess the next question is: what SERP agent will take on the task of 'shelving' Willie---preferably for the whole season. ;)

Rem

Raisor
12-27-2008, 09:29 PM
So, I guess the next question is: what SERP agent will take on the task of 'shelving' Willie---preferably for the whole season. ;)

Rem

Someone the rest of us won't miss. We need a patsy. Maybe they can reinstate Bad Fundamentals for a one time job.

TRF
12-27-2008, 09:32 PM
Here is how lifetime stats for a player with 4 seasons can be misleading. If I have done the math right his speed adjusted OPS for a 162 game average is .758: .313 OBP, .445 SLG. But 2007 skews the data a bit due to games played. At least IMO. I do think Taveras became a better base stealer, and I think he did that in 2007, not 2008. Again, games played. He played in almost 50 fewer games in 2007 than in 2006 but stole the same number of bases. Something clicked in 2007, and base stealing is speed + instincts + coaching. But in order for him to have a speed adjusted OPS similar to a non speed adjusted OPS that anyone would consider acceptable, Taveras needs a 90% SB percentage, AND he needs 60+ SB's. He needs quantity and quality to achieve what other leadoff hitters equal or better without the SB's.

He needs to suddenly learn how to take a walk at twice the rate he has at this point in his career.

_Sir_Charles_
12-27-2008, 09:33 PM
Can you please explain how basepath speed helps when it's sitting in the dugout after an inordinate amount of Plate Appearances? Your entire position doubles back upon itself when we run into that not-so-tiny fundamental point.

He's fast, but doesn't get on base so the speed argument is pretty much moot. Willy Taveras doesn't put any pressure on the opposing defense. He only pressures his own offense because they have to somehow make up for his lack of anything resembling even a mediocre offensive game.

Yes, he does get on base. Just not as much as you apparently want him to. .330 obp is not ideal, I'm not an idiot...but it's also far from horrible. Heck, we really only had a half dozen guys on the Reds who were better than that last year. Edwin, Jr., Votto, Dunn & Hairston and a few parttimers. .308 was his low point. I'd expect him to go back to his norms. Sure, it'd be great if it was better, but saying he doesn't get on base is an exaggeration. Walks or no walks, he's still normally a .280 hitter. Only Votto & Hairston did better than .280 last season. I see THAT as a bigger problem than his walks. As a team we don't get hits. Now if we compensated with tons of walks...fine. But we don't. So we need to get some guys who can hit for a decent average at least. And other than last season, he's proven he can do that. Hell, even look at last season's .251 avg....that was still better than half our team. Is he a savior...hell no. But he's far from the plague that people here are making him out to be.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 09:53 PM
Yes, he does get on base. Just not as much as you apparently want him to. .330 obp is not ideal, I'm not an idiot...but it's also far from horrible. Heck, we really only had a half dozen guys on the Reds who were better than that last year. Edwin, Jr., Votto, Dunn & Hairston and a few parttimers. .308 was his low point. I'd expect him to go back to his norms. Sure, it'd be great if it was better, but saying he doesn't get on base is an exaggeration. Walks or no walks, he's still normally a .280 hitter. Only Votto & Hairston did better than .280 last season. I see THAT as a bigger problem than his walks. As a team we don't get hits. Now if we compensated with tons of walks...fine. But we don't. So we need to get some guys who can hit for a decent average at least. And other than last season, he's proven he can do that. Hell, even look at last season's .251 avg....that was still better than half our team. Is he a savior...hell no. But he's far from the plague that people here are making him out to be.


How about if I can show that 08 was just Willy returning to his norm?

Let me use a slightly different number, RC per 100 PA.

05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)

Cedric
12-27-2008, 09:58 PM
He doesnt hit or walk enough. Pretty simple to figure out that he is not the answer. This ballclub needs real talent. Not just some ideological idea of talent from 1984.
Yes, he does get on base. Just not as much as you apparently want him to. .330 obp is not ideal, I'm not an idiot...but it's also far from horrible. Heck, we really only had a half dozen guys on the Reds who were better than that last year. Edwin, Jr., Votto, Dunn & Hairston and a few parttimers. .308 was his low point. I'd expect him to go back to his norms. Sure, it'd be great if it was better, but saying he doesn't get on base is an exaggeration. Walks or no walks, he's still normally a .280 hitter. Only Votto & Hairston did better than .280 last season. I see THAT as a bigger problem than his walks. As a team we don't get hits. Now if we compensated with tons of walks...fine. But we don't. So we need to get some guys who can hit for a decent average at least. And other than last season, he's proven he can do that. Hell, even look at last season's .251 avg....that was still better than half our team. Is he a savior...hell no. But he's far from the plague that people here are making him out to be.

Johnny Footstool
12-27-2008, 10:07 PM
nothing good about this. we know taveras can't hit. all the metrics say taveras is a poor fielder. so basically, the reds paid actual money to score fewer runs and allow more runs. for the next two years.

and some of you thought juan rivera was a bad gamble...

gonelong
12-27-2008, 10:18 PM
I am starting to wonder if what ails Mike Brown is communicable.

GL

KronoRed
12-27-2008, 10:19 PM
I am starting to wonder if what ails Mike Brown is communicable.

GL

Same here.

What a waste of time and cash, why not just bring Patterson back and be done with it?

Pfft.

Raisor
12-27-2008, 10:21 PM
Same here.

What a waste of time and cash, why not just bring Patterson back and be done with it?

Pfft.

As bad of an idea is what to sign Patterson, at least that was only a one year deal.

SteelSD
12-27-2008, 10:26 PM
Yes, he does get on base. Just not as much as you apparently want him to. .330 obp is not ideal, I'm not an idiot...but it's also far from horrible.

It's something that's completely unacceptable given the lack of OBP on the current Reds' team. You simply can't give leadoff-level PA to a guy with that OBP and no SLG while expecting to have anything except a poor offense given the Reds' current mix of players.


Heck, we really only had a half dozen guys on the Reds who were better than that last year. Edwin, Jr., Votto, Dunn & Hairston and a few parttimers. .308 was his low point. I'd expect him to go back to his norms.

And as previously stated, his norms are completely unacceptable for this ballclub. Considering he Caught Stealing rate, the guy makes an out about 7 out of 10 times he comes to the plate. Speed doesn't make up for that and what you've just noted is actually an argument against adding another low-OBP player to a team already plagued by them.


Sure, it'd be great if it was better, but saying he doesn't get on base is an exaggeration. Walks or no walks, he's still normally a .280 hitter. Only Votto & Hairston did better than .280 last season. I see THAT as a bigger problem than his walks. As a team we don't get hits.

When you make Outs 70% of the time, it's not an exaggeration to state that a guy isn't acceptable offensively and particularly at the top of a batting order.


Now if we compensated with tons of walks...fine. But we don't.

And adding a plate discipline-challenged low-SLG player makes up for that exactly how? Willy Taveras isn't a guy who'll provide a high-BA/high-OBP projectible mix to the club, so he needs those missing Walks to produce Runs for the club.


So we need to get some guys who can hit for a decent average at least. And other than last season, he's proven he can do that. Hell, even look at last season's .251 avg....that was still better than half our team. Is he a savior...hell no. But he's far from the plague that people here are making him out to be.

Oh, he's a plague of the worst kind. You've done a lot to attempt to disparage the value of Walks in this thread, but you've avoided the concept that a big chunk of Taveras' BA is virtually hollow. He's nothing but a Singles hitter at his best and a big chunk of that is bunting for a hit. In fact, during his best BA season, a full 31% of Taveras' Base Hits were by bunting himself on, which basically replicate the effect of a Base on Balls. Cut the bunting luck overage away from 2007 and you're left with a line of .271 BA/.333 OBP/.344 SLG. I can't possibly believe you'd support the acquisition of a plyer with a line like that as being anything other than AAA filler. He's Juan Pierre-lite.

membengal
12-27-2008, 10:26 PM
Sir Charles: It's NOT just the OBP issues. I wish that were only it. Somewhere, in one of the other Tavares threads, I, and others, documented his SLG issues. To say he swings a wet noodle at the plate is to insult wet noodles. He's absolutely useless with the bat in his hands. Useless.

The ONLY way he doesn't affirimitvely hurt this team is if he miraculously OBPs .375 this year. A batting average driven .375. Which means he will need to hit about .335. And, with his lack of power, that is just about impossible.

Go look again at his career SLG. I will wait. Look at it for individual seasons. And consider how horrible it is going to be when he gets 600 at-bats for this team. If he is not getting on base, he is useless. Completely and totally useless. And his getting on base is largely dependant on being hit lucky. Uber-hit lucky. And I gotta say, the odds of him being such in a small park like GABP compared to the wide expanses of Coors which will allow more than the usual number of bloop hits, well, they're not good.

This is an awful signing, for all the reasons that were laid out on this board in about five threads this off-season, as we all cringed at what was coming. It makes the climb to, um, .500 that much harder, and it darn near puts a bullet in the brain of hopes for a WC chase for this team.

Par for the course, I suppose. What we have come to expect from this waste of a franchise, anymore, I guess.

ETA: His stats at baseballrefernce.com

http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/taverwi01.shtml

His career HIGH for SLG is .382. That's it. That's his high. His norm? For slugging? For SLUGGING? .337. That's horrible. On so many levels that the mind reels...

KronoRed
12-27-2008, 10:29 PM
You know how this is a bad signing?

Even the sun deck hates it ;)

Raisor
12-27-2008, 10:35 PM
You know how this is a bad signing?

Even the sun deck hates it ;)


Last time I looked Reds.com mb was so in love with it they wanted to marry it.

membengal
12-27-2008, 10:44 PM
By the way, somone asked upthread what numbers Tavares will need to make the doubters happy. Well, THIS doubter will need to see a:

.370 OBP with a .350 SLG. That would give him a .720 OPS.

Which would a l m o s t get him to the point where he isn't completely harming the team. I mean, really, it is hard to under-estimate just how awful that man's slugging is with respect to his "game".

But, hey, he OPS's .720, and I will call that a "win" for Jocketty. For finding and signing a guy who, in the best case scenario, is worse than league average. More than likely, he's gonna OPS around .650. Which is tragic. And fatal to this club.

Whole thing blows.

Johnny Footstool
12-27-2008, 10:46 PM
he makes juan pierre look like teddy ballgame

remdog
12-27-2008, 10:47 PM
Still waiting to hear what the dollar amount was on this deal.

Since the Nats signed C. Patterson for $650K for one year it would seem somewhat logical that if the Reds spent more than $1.3M for two years of Wet Willie, they will have overpaid.

Rem

Spitball
12-27-2008, 10:50 PM
I'm not saying I like the Willy T. signing, but I'm not going to let his signing ruin my outlook for 2009-2010.

In four full seasons he has played on three winning teams. He has appeared in two World series. I like his defense though I think he plays a little too deeply for my tastes. He has a strong, accurate arm. He should turn 27 years old as a Red which is an age Bill James feels is the most likely to produce a career season.

He may suck beyond belief, but I'm willing to wait and see how the big picture of the total season pans out.

Blitz Dorsey
12-27-2008, 10:53 PM
Still waiting to hear what the dollar amount was on this deal.

Since the Nats signed C. Patterson for $650K for one year it would seem somewhat logical that if the Reds spent more than $1.3M for two years of Wet Willie, they will have overpaid.

Rem

Same here. Why are they keeping the particulars of a fringe signing so hush-hush?

RedLegSuperStar
12-27-2008, 10:59 PM
C.Trent says the Reds have talked with the Yankees about there outfielders.. I say bring in Nick Swisher!

KronoRed
12-27-2008, 10:59 PM
Same here. Why are they keeping the particulars of a fringe signing so hush-hush?

This is no fringe signing, this is our starting CF and lead off hitter, 600 at bats just landed in town.

Woo.

fearofpopvol1
12-27-2008, 11:00 PM
I want to know what the money is. 2 years is too long though. I would've been able to swallow a 1 year deal, with the hope that Stubbs would've been ready for '10 (or to see if Dickerson could've handled half of the ABs). But 2 years is scary.

I do agree with FCB though that I don't this move damns the Reds. It doesn't help them, but addressing the SS position and and the 3B/LF position are more important.

westofyou
12-27-2008, 11:01 PM
Reds CF OPS vs the League CF's with 200 PA's since the league was broken into divisions


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1969-2008
CF
OBA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SLG displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RUNS CREATED/GAME displayed only--not a sorting criteria
PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria

OPS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE OBA SLG RC/G PA
1 Jon Nunnally 1997 .249 1.002 .753 .400 .602 9.38 231
2 Eric Davis 1989 .237 .908 .672 .367 .541 6.71 542
3 Eric Davis 1987 .213 .991 .778 .399 .593 9.57 562
4 Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 .186 .946 .760 .369 .576 7.80 555
5 Josh Hamilton 2007 .170 .922 .752 .368 .554 7.18 337
6 Ken Griffey Jr. 2003 .165 .936 .771 .370 .566 7.48 201
7 Ken Griffey Jr. 2001 .161 .898 .737 .365 .533 7.02 417
8 Eric Davis 1996 .158 .917 .759 .394 .523 7.56 496
9 Ken Griffey Jr. 2000 .153 .942 .789 .387 .556 7.87 631
10 Eric Davis 1988 .153 .852 .700 .363 .489 6.68 543
11 Ken Griffey Jr. 2004 .098 .864 .766 .351 .513 6.23 348
12 Roberto Kelly 1993 .097 .829 .732 .354 .475 6.06 342
13 Eric Davis 1990 .091 .833 .743 .347 .486 6.21 518
14 Reggie Sanders 1992 .085 .819 .734 .356 .462 5.86 438
15 Bobby Tolan 1970 .083 .860 .777 .384 .475 6.81 675
16 Bobby Tolan 1969 .078 .821 .743 .347 .474 5.84 691
17 Ken Griffey Sr. 1981 .075 .780 .705 .370 .409 5.64 442
18 Cesar Geronimo 1976 .072 .795 .723 .382 .414 6.24 555
19 Cesar Cedeno 1982 .045 .758 .713 .346 .413 4.74 543
20 Ken Griffey Jr. 2006 .043 .802 .759 .316 .486 4.98 472
21 Eddie Milner 1986 .037 .762 .725 .317 .446 4.83 462
22 Eric Davis 1991 .035 .739 .704 .353 .386 5.14 340
23 Juan Encarnacion 2002 .034 .804 .770 .330 .474 5.31 354
24 Mike Cameron 1999 .033 .825 .792 .357 .469 6.20 636
25 Eric Davis 1984 .021 .786 .765 .320 .466 5.44 200
26 Dave Collins 1980 .015 .736 .721 .366 .370 5.58 613
27 Ken Griffey Jr. 2002 .014 .784 .770 .358 .426 5.16 232
28 Ruben Rivera 2001 .009 .747 .737 .321 .426 4.43 290
29 Thomas Howard 1995 .008 .752 .744 .350 .402 5.17 304
30 Jacob Brumfield 1993 .008 .740 .732 .321 .419 4.82 299
31 Norris Hopper 2007 .007 .758 .752 .371 .388 5.23 335
32 Ryan Freel 2006 .004 .762 .759 .363 .399 5.55 523
33 Eddie Milner 1983 .002 .734 .732 .350 .384 4.78 584
34 Cesar Geronimo 1974 .000 .739 .739 .345 .395 4.77 530
35 Herm Winningham 1989 -.001 .671 .672 .316 .355 3.90 278
36 Reggie Sanders 1998 -.003 .764 .767 .346 .418 5.01 545
37 Bobby Tolan 1972 -.004 .720 .724 .334 .386 4.42 667
38 Eddie Milner 1985 -.022 .688 .710 .342 .347 4.51 520
39 Cesar Geronimo 1977 -.026 .709 .735 .321 .388 4.17 538
40 Cesar Geronimo 1978 -.037 .664 .701 .329 .334 3.73 351
41 Cesar Geronimo 1975 -.047 .690 .737 .327 .363 4.24 557
42 George Foster 1971 -.050 .675 .726 .289 .386 3.16 402
43 Reggie Taylor 2002 -.050 .719 .770 .291 .429 3.66 311
44 Dave Martinez 1992 -.057 .677 .734 .323 .354 3.92 445
45 Deion Sanders 1997 -.060 .693 .753 .329 .363 4.74 509
46 Cesar Geronimo 1979 -.064 .655 .719 .312 .343 3.51 400
47 Deion Sanders 1994 -.075 .700 .776 .342 .359 4.50 203
48 Eddie Milner 1984 -.089 .676 .765 .333 .342 4.04 397
49 Ryan Freel 2007 -.097 .655 .752 .308 .347 3.65 304
50 Curtis Goodwin 1997 -.131 .622 .753 .316 .306 3.01 297
51 Cesar Geronimo 1973 -.158 .574 .732 .266 .309 2.56 358
52 Corey Patterson 2008 -.169 .582 .751 .238 .344 2.51 392
53 Bobby Tolan 1973 -.177 .555 .732 .251 .304 2.24 501

durl
12-27-2008, 11:03 PM
I'm going to say that Taverus will end up doing good in Cincinnati.

If I'm right, it makes me look like a genius. If I'm wrong, I'll blame it on a desire to be contrary to the tidal wave of disapproval.

Blitz Dorsey
12-27-2008, 11:04 PM
This is no fringe signing, this is our starting CF and lead off hitter, 600 at bats just landed in town.

Woo.

Fringe in the overall MLB sense. This isn't exactly a headline-drawing signing across the country. If this was Krivsky, he probably would have given him $6 million over 2 years. Since it's Walt, I'm a little more optimistic the Reds got him on the cheap.

(And yes, I know many will argue nothing could be cheap enough for Taveras.)

remdog
12-27-2008, 11:07 PM
I'm going to say that Taverus will end up doing good in Cincinnati.

If I'm right, it makes me look like a genius. If I'm wrong, I'll blame it on a desire to be contrary to the tidal wave of disapproval.

Willie could very well end up doing good in Cincinnati. He could volenteer in a soup kitchen, appear as the 'player to be dunked' at a charity event, collect 'Toys for Tots'. That would be 'doing good'.

Baseball? Can he play well? I'd guess not. :)

Rem

membengal
12-27-2008, 11:14 PM
Nice chart, WOY. Taveras' career average OPS puts him between Eddie Milner's 1984 season and Cesar Geronimo's 1978 season. On the BAD part of the chart. If everything in the world goes right for Taveras? He a l m o s t makes it out of the bad part of the chart.

But not quite.

Really, hard to capture just how awful this is for the team. Especially when they hand him 600 at-bats. Which we all know they will...

M2
12-27-2008, 11:15 PM
CF is a defense first position.

Tell that to Tris Speaker, Ty Cobb and Oscar Charleston. It's a defense-and position, always has been. If you're getting a pile of offense out of C, SS and 2B -- like the BRM -- then you can carry a glove guy out in in CF, but for most teams the CF needs to be a significant contributor on offense.

OldRightHander
12-27-2008, 11:16 PM
Willie could very well end up doing good in Cincinnati. He could volenteer in a soup kitchen, appear as the 'player to be dunked' at a charity event, collect 'Toys for Tots'. That would be 'doing good'.

Baseball? Can he play well? I'd guess not. :)

Rem

If he does the above, hustles out to the field and runs hard on ground outs, and looks upset when he strikes out, he will be a hero in Cincinnati.

MartyFan
12-27-2008, 11:23 PM
Just read about the signing and while I am not "Jumping for Joy"...I am not ready to slit my wrists or withdraw my support of the team because of it.

I trust Walt's judgment and the judgment of the people he has put around him.

I could see Willy doing better here in Cincinnati than he did in Colorado defensively. The thing that scares me is that he is another FREE SWINGING slot in the lineup and we already have a TON OF THAT though, not as much as we used to.

He is speedy, a decent defender and he is speedy. ;)

So, I am not looking for high buildings to jump from though I do not think he is "THE ANSWER" or the final piece this team needs to be a contender.

Still looking for that RH POWER HITTER we've heard about.

Also, I still think my signature quote from Special K still is accurate and it is exactly the way this team is being built.

flyer85
12-27-2008, 11:23 PM
just got home. I think it is safe to write off the 09 and 10 Reds. A freakin' disaster.

RFS62
12-27-2008, 11:25 PM
Wow, I'm late to the wake, uh, party.

Methinks the Big Red Machine just developed the Red Circle of Death.

flyer85
12-27-2008, 11:26 PM
Phillips and Bruce could be around .330
or be around .300

membengal
12-27-2008, 11:27 PM
How does this not cripple the club's chances? If Votto or Bruce or Edwin go "Pujols" for the club this year, and cover Walt's transgression. I like each of those players, but to hope they go "Pujols"? Not exactly realistic.

flyer85
12-27-2008, 11:28 PM
The Rockies released Taveras because they didn't want to risk losing in arbitration and have Taveras make more money than he did in the 2008 season. the real reason is they had seen enough of his act to know they didn't want him around anymore. And if Taveras and his speed is not wanted in Coors it isnt going to play in almost any other stadium in baseball.

SMcGavin
12-27-2008, 11:29 PM
I just don't get it. How do you buid a perennial powerhouse that is the St. Louis Cardinals, and then decide that Willy Taveras is a good signing?? It really doesn't add up.

Yeah. Faith in Walt's history was carrying me through the offseason. When he made the Hernandez deal, I thought "this is how a pro does it". Now - ugh. Though it makes a little more sense when you consider that two crucial parts of his STL plan were "draft one of the best hitters in MLB history in the 13th round" and "sign nobody pitchers for cheap and let the best pitching coach in the league turn them into contributors".

Will M
12-27-2008, 11:30 PM
Tell that to Tris Speaker, Ty Cobb and Oscar Charleston. It's a defense-and position, always has been. If you're getting a pile of offense out of C, SS and 2B -- like the BRM -- then you can carry a glove guy out in in CF, but for most teams the CF needs to be a significant contributor on offense.

I disagree. Catcher, shortstop & centerfield are the three positions where the player has to be able to play defense. If a team can get strong defense and an OPS of 700 out these positions they are doing well.

Jocketty has said that he is trying to field a better defensive team.
C: Hernadez/Hanigan is better defensively than Ross/Bako.
CF: Dickerson/Taveras is better defensively than Bruce.
RF: Bruce is better defensively than Griffey.
1B: 2nd half 2008 Votto was better defensively than 1rst half 2008 Votto.
Thats four positions improved. The team ERA will be a lot better next year.

Obviously Jocketty is under budget constraints. Were he not he would have signed Tex for 1B and moved Votto to LF. Or made the Dye trade.
I am sure he is trying his best with the limits set on him.

I hope Taveras has a great turnaround and plays well for the Reds.
If he doesn't I hope Dusty has the sense to bench him.

I of course had hoped Walt could have really made some great deals and the team becomes an instant contender. I am truly happy that Walt has not traded away the future for short term fixes. Barring BC opening up his checkbook the team was not going to make the playoffs in 2009 unless Walt traded away guys like Frazier, Soto, etc. Then we could have had a couple decent years then gone back to futility due to a barren farm system.

MartyFan
12-27-2008, 11:30 PM
If he does the above, hustles out to the field and runs hard on ground outs, and looks upset when he strikes out, he will be a hero in Cincinnati.

THAT IS AWESOME!!!!!

And true!

:beerme:

edabbs44
12-27-2008, 11:30 PM
How does this not cripple the club's chances? If Votto or Bruce or Edwin go "Pujols" for the club this year, and cover Walt's transgression. I like each of those players, but to hope they go "Pujols"? Not exactly realistic.

The club's chances were crippled before this signing. Cincy needed multiple prime time bats to be a legit contender in '09. As long as your expectations have been reasonable, then this shouldn't be a death blow.

However, I can't figure out why they won't just tear it down. The Bruce/Votto/Cueto/Volquez window will be shutting awfully quick.

edabbs44
12-27-2008, 11:31 PM
The worst part about this signing is that the game threads will be flat out unreadable.

flyer85
12-27-2008, 11:32 PM
Because Wily Taveras has proven he can handle hitting leadoff. uh ... NO. He has shown he can make a boatload of outs while batting at the top of the order. Just shows how clueless walt and Reds really are. Taveras should never bat anywhere but 8th. He is an offensive black hole.

SMcGavin
12-27-2008, 11:34 PM
By the way, I'm sure it's been said earlier in this thread, but what happens if you put Chris Dickerson out there for 650 PAs in CF? Isn't the absolute worst case scenario that he puts up a season like Willy Taveras (fast, good defense, no bat)?

membengal
12-27-2008, 11:35 PM
Edabbs, my expectations were to hope for a .500 season. Was that reasonable? For those that wanted more, Tavares is a dagger. Unless someone puts up a 1.030 OPS to help mask Taveras' awfulness.

westofyou
12-27-2008, 11:36 PM
I disagree. Catcher, shortstop & centerfield are the three positions where the player has to be able to play defense. If a team can get strong defense and an OPS of 700 out these positions they are doing well.

That .700 OPS era for CF is over, especially with smaller parks, since 2000 only 18% of the CF who have played enough to qualify for the batting title have had an OPS of .700 or less, 17 guys out of 91 and Taveras is there three times


NATIONAL LEAGUE
SEASON
2000-2008
CF

OPS YEAR OPS
1 Jim Edmonds 2004 1.061
2 Richard Hidalgo 2000 1.028
3 Brian Giles 2000 1.026
4 Jim Edmonds 2003 1.002
5 Jim Edmonds 2000 .994
6 Lance Berkman 2002 .982
7 Carlos Beltran 2006 .982
8 Jim Edmonds 2002 .981
9 Jim Edmonds 2001 .974
10 Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 .946
11 Ken Griffey Jr. 2000 .942
12 Andruw Jones 2005 .922
13 Jim Edmonds 2005 .918
14 Andruw Jones 2000 .907
15 Steve Finley 2000 .904
16 Andruw Jones 2006 .894
17 Aaron Rowand 2007 .889
18 Preston Wilson 2003 .880
19 Andruw Jones 2002 .878
20 Carlos Beltran 2007 .878
21 Carlos Beltran 2008 .876
22 Steve Finley 2002 .869
23 Steve Finley 2003 .863
24 Nate McLouth 2008 .853
25 Andruw Jones 2003 .851
26 Brad Wilkerson 2002 .840
27 Mike Cameron 2006 .837
28 Andruw Jones 2004 .833
29 Preston Wilson 2001 .825
30 Steve Finley 2004 .823
31 Scott Podsednik 2003 .822
32 Preston Wilson 2000 .817
33 Richard Hidalgo 2001 .811
34 Mark Kotsay 2002 .810
35 Mike Cameron 2008 .809
36 Cody Ross 2008 .804
37 Kenny Lofton 2003 .801
38 Shane Victorino 2008 .799
39 Matt Kemp 2008 .799
40 Brady Clark 2005 .798
41 Mike Cameron 2004 .798
42 Eric Byrnes 2006 .795
43 Juan Pierre 2001 .793
44 Preston Wilson 2005 .793
45 Marquis Grissom 2003 .790
46 Milton Bradley 2004 .786
47 Marlon Byrd 2003 .784
48 Juan Pierre 2004 .781
49 Jay Payton 2000 .778
50 Marquis Grissom 2004 .773
51 Andruw Jones 2001 .772
52 Corey Patterson 2004 .771
53 Steve Finley 2001 .767
54 Skip Schumaker 2008 .765
55 Kenny Lofton 2006 .763
56 Chris Young 2007 .763
57 Craig Biggio 2003 .763
58 Ryan Freel 2006 .762
59 Mike Cameron 2007 .759
60 Preston Wilson 2002 .759
61 Chris Young 2008 .758
62 Brad Wilkerson 2005 .756
63 Aaron Rowand 2008 .749
64 Carlos Beltran 2005 .744
65 Bill Hall 2007 .740
66 Marvin Benard 2000 .739
67 Juan Pierre 2003 .734
68 Lastings Milledge 2008 .731
69 Jeffrey Hammonds 2002 .729
70 Mark Kotsay 2003 .726
71 Andruw Jones 2007 .724
72 Juan Pierre 2006 .717
73 Damon Buford 2000 .714
74 Tom Goodwin 2000 .698
75 Jay Payton 2004 .693
76 Endy Chavez 2004 .688
77 Juan Pierre 2007 .685
78 Tike Redman 2004 .684
79 Doug Glanville 2000 .681
80 Juan Pierre 2005 .680
81 Scott Podsednik 2004 .677
82 Corey Patterson 2002 .676
83 Juan Pierre 2002 .675
84 Willy Taveras 2006 .672
85 Peter Bergeron 2000 .669
86 Willy Taveras 2005 .666
87 Doug Glanville 2001 .660
88 Endy Chavez 2003 .648
89 Marquis Grissom 2000 .640
90 Willy Taveras 2008 .604
91 Michael Bourn 2008 .588

remdog
12-27-2008, 11:36 PM
If he does the above, hustles out to the field and runs hard on ground outs, and looks upset when he strikes out, he will be a hero in Cincinnati.

True.

But he still won't be a very good baseball player. :)

Rem

westofyou
12-27-2008, 11:38 PM
The worst part about this signing is that the game threads will be flat out unreadable.

And before they were?

Raisor
12-27-2008, 11:38 PM
So if the season started today, this would be the most likely Dusty lineup, right?

Willy T 308/296
Dickerson 413/609
Votto 368/506
BP 312/442
Bruce 314/453
EE 340/466
Kep 310/346
Hernandez 309/406

5 of 8 with sub 315 OBP in 2008.
I expect Bruce to get better, Votto to slow down a bit, Dickerson to fall way down (probably around the 330/450 area).
Yeah, that's not going to work for me.

westofyou
12-27-2008, 11:38 PM
True.

But he still won't be a very good baseball player. :)

Rem

But he'll probably endorse a chili product.

MartyFan
12-27-2008, 11:38 PM
By the way, I'm sure it's been said earlier in this thread, but what happens if you put Chris Dickerson out there for 650 PAs in CF? Isn't the absolute worst case scenario that he puts up a season like Willy Taveras (fast, good defense, no bat)?

My thought exactly, though for whatever reason, Dickerson doesn't have the confidence of the FO to do at least as good as Willy.

Is the FO making moves just to make moves?

Could Dickerson be one of the players involved in a trade for the RH power bat...like with Homer for Dye?

Just wondering, because this move rally doesn't make sense when you consider that we already have Dickerson on the tam.

flyer85
12-27-2008, 11:40 PM
Hey, at least we bought low on this guy. If 2008 was an aberration2007 was the aberration. 2008 was simply a repeat of 2005 and 2006.

remdog
12-27-2008, 11:43 PM
But he'll probably endorse a chili product.

Great idea. He can get together with Bronson and create a whole new series of commercials entitled, 'Tasteing It Again!' (Sung to an old, familiar tune...) .;)

Rem

TRF
12-27-2008, 11:45 PM
That .700 OPS era for CF is over, especially with smaller parks, since 2000 only 18% of the CF who have played enough to qualify for the batting title have had an OPS of .700 or less, 17 guys out of 91 and Taveras is there three times


NATIONAL LEAGUE
SEASON
2000-2008
CF

OPS YEAR OPS
1 Jim Edmonds 2004 1.061
2 Richard Hidalgo 2000 1.028
3 Brian Giles 2000 1.026
4 Jim Edmonds 2003 1.002
5 Jim Edmonds 2000 .994
6 Lance Berkman 2002 .982
7 Carlos Beltran 2006 .982
8 Jim Edmonds 2002 .981
9 Jim Edmonds 2001 .974
10 Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 .946
11 Ken Griffey Jr. 2000 .942
12 Andruw Jones 2005 .922
13 Jim Edmonds 2005 .918
14 Andruw Jones 2000 .907
15 Steve Finley 2000 .904
16 Andruw Jones 2006 .894
17 Aaron Rowand 2007 .889
18 Preston Wilson 2003 .880
19 Andruw Jones 2002 .878
20 Carlos Beltran 2007 .878
21 Carlos Beltran 2008 .876
22 Steve Finley 2002 .869
23 Steve Finley 2003 .863
24 Nate McLouth 2008 .853
25 Andruw Jones 2003 .851
26 Brad Wilkerson 2002 .840
27 Mike Cameron 2006 .837
28 Andruw Jones 2004 .833
29 Preston Wilson 2001 .825
30 Steve Finley 2004 .823
31 Scott Podsednik 2003 .822
32 Preston Wilson 2000 .817
33 Richard Hidalgo 2001 .811
34 Mark Kotsay 2002 .810
35 Mike Cameron 2008 .809
36 Cody Ross 2008 .804
37 Kenny Lofton 2003 .801
38 Shane Victorino 2008 .799
39 Matt Kemp 2008 .799
40 Brady Clark 2005 .798
41 Mike Cameron 2004 .798
42 Eric Byrnes 2006 .795
43 Juan Pierre 2001 .793
44 Preston Wilson 2005 .793
45 Marquis Grissom 2003 .790
46 Milton Bradley 2004 .786
47 Marlon Byrd 2003 .784
48 Juan Pierre 2004 .781
49 Jay Payton 2000 .778
50 Marquis Grissom 2004 .773
51 Andruw Jones 2001 .772
52 Corey Patterson 2004 .771
53 Steve Finley 2001 .767
54 Skip Schumaker 2008 .765
55 Kenny Lofton 2006 .763
56 Chris Young 2007 .763
57 Craig Biggio 2003 .763
58 Ryan Freel 2006 .762
59 Mike Cameron 2007 .759
60 Preston Wilson 2002 .759
61 Chris Young 2008 .758
62 Brad Wilkerson 2005 .756
63 Aaron Rowand 2008 .749
64 Carlos Beltran 2005 .744
65 Bill Hall 2007 .740
66 Marvin Benard 2000 .739
67 Juan Pierre 2003 .734
68 Lastings Milledge 2008 .731
69 Jeffrey Hammonds 2002 .729
70 Mark Kotsay 2003 .726
71 Andruw Jones 2007 .724
72 Juan Pierre 2006 .717
73 Damon Buford 2000 .714
74 Tom Goodwin 2000 .698
75 Jay Payton 2004 .693
76 Endy Chavez 2004 .688
77 Juan Pierre 2007 .685
78 Tike Redman 2004 .684
79 Doug Glanville 2000 .681
80 Juan Pierre 2005 .680
81 Scott Podsednik 2004 .677
82 Corey Patterson 2002 .676
83 Juan Pierre 2002 .675
84 Willy Taveras 2006 .672
85 Peter Bergeron 2000 .669
86 Willy Taveras 2005 .666
87 Doug Glanville 2001 .660
88 Endy Chavez 2003 .648
89 Marquis Grissom 2000 .640
90 Willy Taveras 2008 .604
91 Michael Bourn 2008 .588



I had to quote this because no argument made in this whole thread sums it up quite like this one. woy dispelled the myth of the weak hitting CF and put Taveras in context with his peers.

And that context is he sucks beyond measure.

SteelSD
12-27-2008, 11:47 PM
Yeah. Faith in Walt's history was carrying me through the offseason. When he made the Hernandez deal, I thought "this is how a pro does it". Now - ugh. Though it makes a little more sense when you consider that two crucial parts of his STL plan were "draft one of the best hitters in MLB history in the 13th round" and "sign nobody pitchers for cheap and let the best pitching coach in the league turn them into contributors".

Yeah, unfortunately, there's no Dave Duncan and no Albert Pujols. Those are a couple fairly not-minor problems. Regardless of the sport, the game eventually passes by everyone. It's just fate that Castellini assembled an entire staff of that sort.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 11:48 PM
Yeah, unfortunately, there's no Dave Duncan and no Albert Pujols. Those are a couple fairly not-minor problems. Regardless of the sport, the game eventually passes by everyone. It's just fate that Castellini assembled an entire staff of that sort.

Not sure I'd reduce Walt's tenure to Pujols and the nebulous benefits of a pitching coach.

flyer85
12-27-2008, 11:49 PM
I'm not calling Taveras a great or even a good player. You can call him anything you want, it doesnt matter because the data is very clear on what type of player Taveras actually is.

membengal
12-27-2008, 11:53 PM
Not sure I'd reduce Walt's tenure to Pujols and the nebulous benefits of a pitching coach.

The last five or so years certainly were. Having Pujols lets you screw around and get away with Womack signings. Good luck with that here...

SteelSD
12-27-2008, 11:55 PM
Not sure I'd reduce Walt's tenure to Pujols and the nebulous benefits of a pitching coach.

Over the past three years, Albert Pujols has produced 171.4 Runs Above Position. Think about that for a moment.

Falls City Beer
12-27-2008, 11:57 PM
Over the past three years, Albert Pujols has produced 171.4 Runs Above Position. Think about that for a moment.

Yep. And Walt drafted him. Smacks of the "take out his 'worst' starts" argument.

He succeeded because he succeeded. He may have lost it, but come on, this revisionism is garbage.

corkedbat
12-28-2008, 12:01 AM
The two best scenarios now?

1) They sign Hairston AND a bat for LF. Taveras sux so bad in ST they jettison him ala Womack

2) They limit Taveras' exposure by using him in a strict platoon with Dickerson - using Willy only vs. LHers and in late inning defensive switches with dickerson going to LF.

Past history and WJ's statements today make both pipedreams though. He'll most likely get every chance that Patterson got and more with even more damaging results. They should know better - if noting else,they learned nothing from the Ptteron disater and then they turn around a pull this. Horrible, horrendous signing and a black way to head into the New Year.

flyer85
12-28-2008, 12:01 AM
But, hey, he OPS's .720, and I will call that a "win" for Jocketty. For finding and signing a guy who, in the best case scenario, is worse than league average. More than likely, he's gonna OPS around .650. Which is tragic. And fatal to this club.

Whole thing blows.the 2009 Reds have likely been DOA for some time. They had to find 175 runs to be hopeful of playoff contention. This issue is that Walt is moving in the wrong direction ... and the best part is that he doesn't know it.

cincrazy
12-28-2008, 12:05 AM
Over the past three years, Albert Pujols has produced 171.4 Runs Above Position. Think about that for a moment.

Walt won before Pujols. Besides, I can't think of many GM's who were successful without a great individual player or two.

flyer85
12-28-2008, 12:05 AM
1) They sign Hairston AND a bat for LF. Taveras sux so bad in ST they jettison him ala Womackonly if Walt is no longer the GM, as was the case with Womack.

membengal
12-28-2008, 12:06 AM
No, the 2009 Reds have NOT been DOA for some time. But they are headed that direction now. It's now not just the rather problematic replacing of Dunn's lost production, but it is also covering that AND making up for the suck that will be inserting Taveras' bat into the line-up. So, yeah, it's not good.

RBA
12-28-2008, 12:07 AM
This is making my not renewing MLB Extra Innings decision a little easier.

Falls City Beer
12-28-2008, 12:07 AM
No, the 2009 Reds have NOT been DOA for some time. .

Yes they have. Too far away to garner the benefits of the prospects; unwilling to move said prospects for current production = DOA.

membengal
12-28-2008, 12:08 AM
Walt won before Pujols. Besides, I can't think of many GM's who were successful without a great individual player or two.

Roided up McGwire, and then the Pujols era. And, sorry FCB, I am not handing Jock "genius of the year" for lucking into a 13th round Hall of Fame bullet in Pujols.

Falls City Beer
12-28-2008, 12:11 AM
Roided up McGwire, and then the Pujols era. And, sorry FCB, I am not handing Jock "genius of the year" for lucking into a 13th round Hall of Fame bullet in Pujols.

Wainwright, Carpenter, Edmonds, Izzy, and an endless litany of bullpen arms for dirt cheap. Getting career year after career year out of almost every temp player he got.

flyer85
12-28-2008, 12:11 AM
No, the 2009 Reds have NOT been DOA for some time. there were -96 in 2008. Without something bordering the miraculous the 2009 Reds were toast.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 12:11 AM
He doesnt hit or walk enough. Pretty simple to figure out that he is not the answer. This ballclub needs real talent. Not just some ideological idea of talent from 1984.

So...who IS that answer then? Who out there on the free agent market is there this year that is the answer to our problems?

*waits patiently*



I fully agree with many here that Taveras should not be leading off. I think that's fairly obvious. But I've got no problem at all with his defense, his speed or his hitting for that matter. I'm not expecting him to be a slugger. Heck, I'm not even expecting him to be handed the CF starting job. The results of ST will determine that. Jocketty is in charge or acquiring the players...Baker is in charge of who plays and where. If Jocketty is going to be taking over who bats where and where players play...then he needs to dump the manager whoever he is. And to be clear, this isn't Dusty bashing either. Other than his batting orders and his choice of starters in the first half, I didn't really have much of a problem with Baker. But to be fair, he didn't have many other options did he?

I think too many people here are assuming that Taveras will start in CF and lead off simply because of what Walt said. If asked again, I bet he'll say it's Dusty's decision and that decision will be made after ST.

jesusfan
12-28-2008, 12:13 AM
I still say sign Dunn and be done with it.... With out pitching staff and that line-up we would certainly compete in 09.... It's merely a dream to sign Dunn though.. Jock doesn't want him.... He'd rather sign Hairston Jr and focus on Small ball...

1. Willy Taveras- CF
2. Jay Bruce- RF
3. Joey Votto- 1st
4. Edwin Encarnacion-3rd
5. Adam Dunn-LF
6. Brandon Phillips-2nd
7. Ramon Hernandez-C
8. Alex Gonzalez-SS

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 12:13 AM
How about if I can show that 08 was just Willy returning to below his norm?

Let me use a slightly different number, RC per 100 PA.

05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)

After all the times you've copied and pasted that, I thought I'd fix it for you. :O) j/k

Falls City Beer
12-28-2008, 12:14 AM
I still say sign Dunn and be done with it.... With out pitching staff and that line-up we would certainly compete in 09.... It's merely a dream to sign Dunn though.. Jock doesn't want him.... He'd rather sign Hairston Jr and focus on Small ball...

1. Willy Taveras- CF
2. Jay Bruce- RF
3. Joey Votto- 1st
4. Edwin Encarnacion-3rd
5. Adam Dunn-LF
6. Brandon Phillips-2nd
7. Ramon Hernandez-C
8. Alex Gonzalez-SS

Dunn doesn't want to come back. That time is over.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 12:17 AM
You've done a lot to attempt to disparage the value of Walks in this thread...

If you go back and re-read, you'll see that is exactly what I'm NOT doing. I love seeing our Reds players taking walks. I loved that Dunn drew alot of them. What I don't do is think that a high walk rate is more important than a high batting average. Regardless of what many here seem to think, walks are NOT more valuable than hits. I'm not undervaluing them...I'm trying to point out that many here OVERvalue them.

,
...but you've avoided the concept that a big chunk of Taveras' BA is virtually hollow. He's nothing but a Singles hitter at his best and a big chunk of that is bunting for a hit. In fact, during his best BA season, a full 31% of Taveras' Base Hits were by bunting himself on, which basically replicate the effect of a Base on Balls. Cut the bunting luck overage away from 2007 and you're left with a line of .271 BA/.333 OBP/.344 SLG. I can't possibly believe you'd support the acquisition of a plyer with a line like that as being anything other than AAA filler. He's Juan Pierre-lite.

And no, I'm not avoiding that he's a singles hitter. What I just don't get is what in the world is so wrong about being a singles hitter? There are hof'ers who made their careers out of being singles hitters. (no, I'm not making that comparison really) If he hit a lot of doubles instead of bunt singles, would that be okay? How much different is a bunt single plus a stolen base from a double? A good number of his singles effectively end up as doubles after he swipes second. I say we start a new stat called virtual SLG. :O)

And in regards to his bunt singles basically replicating a BB...again, I disagree. Sure, in both cases you only get to first. But in the bunt situation, you're forcing the defense to make a play. You've tossed in the possibility of throwing/catching errors, you've added in the possibilities of moving a runner from second to third or even third to home. So like I said numerous times, I'll take a hit...ANY hit...over a walk any day of the week.

LoganBuck
12-28-2008, 12:17 AM
Micah Owings' bat is looking really, really good right now. He can be Taveras late inning offensive replacement.

sigh...

M2
12-28-2008, 12:21 AM
I disagree. Catcher, shortstop & centerfield are the three positions where the player has to be able to play defense. If a team can get strong defense and an OPS of 700 out these positions they are doing well.

What game have you been watching? Yes, a CF needs to play defense. He's also got to make a significant contribution on offense. This is nothing new under the sun. The average CF in the NL last season averaged a .760 OPS. Almost all of them played defense (something fans of teams not forced to endure Ken Griffey Jr. in CF for most of the last decade often take for granted). A .700 OPS is a dog, a deficient player in need of a serious benching.

BTW, the average NL SS last season averaged a .738 OPS and the average catcher averaged a .715 OPS. The brand of baseball you're talking about doesn't exist and, in terms of CFs, hasn't for 30 years (1988 being the lone exception).

TRF
12-28-2008, 12:23 AM
I fully agree with many here that Taveras should not be leading off. I think that's fairly obvious. But I've got no problem at all with his defense, his speed or his hitting for that matter. I'm not expecting him to be a slugger. Heck, I'm not even expecting him to be handed the CF starting job. The results of ST will determine that. Jocketty is in charge or acquiring the players...Baker is in charge of who plays and where. If Jocketty is going to be taking over who bats where and where players play...then he needs to dump the manager whoever he is. And to be clear, this isn't Dusty bashing either. Other than his batting orders and his choice of starters in the first half, I didn't really have much of a problem with Baker. But to be fair, he didn't have many other options did he?

I think too many people here are assuming that Taveras will start in CF and lead off simply because of what Walt said. If asked again, I bet he'll say it's Dusty's decision and that decision will be made after ST.

Walt has stated just the opposite. Taveras is the leadoff hitter and starting CF. That is why he was signed.

In order for Taveras not to suck, he has to do three things:


replicate his OBP from 2007
Replicate or exceed his SB totals AND SB%
exceed his BB totals by at the very least doubling them from 2008. That will offset his likely low to middling BA.
Increase his power output by at least 20%. I don't mean HR's, I mean doubles and triples. in bunches.

Falls City Beer
12-28-2008, 12:24 AM
Walt has stated just the opposite. Taveras is the leadoff hitter and starting CF. That is why he was signed.

In order for Taveras not to suck, he has to do three things:


replicate his OBP from 2007
Replicate or exceed his SB totals AND SB%
exceed his BB totals by at the very least doubling them from 2008. That will offset his likely low to middling BA.
Increase his power output by at least 20%. I don't mean HR's, I mean doubles and triples. in bunches.


If he does those things he becomes an excellent player. Sometimes that happens; it usually doesn't. Maybe he'll not be awful, and he'll be a platoon. That's what I'm hoping for.

M2
12-28-2008, 12:25 AM
That .700 OPS era for CF is over, especially with smaller parks, since 2000 only 18% of the CF who have played enough to qualify for the batting title have had an OPS of .700 or less, 17 guys out of 91 and Taveras is there three times

You act like getting the most consistently underproductive CF in baseball during the past decade is a bad thing.

CrackerJack
12-28-2008, 12:34 AM
Great, now we get to see Taveras' name mentioned in every other post for the next two years. Ugh.

Blitz Dorsey
12-28-2008, 12:35 AM
Still no idea what this is costing the Reds?

(Cue the jokes about "a playoff birth.")

Falls City Beer
12-28-2008, 12:36 AM
Great, now we get to see Taveras' name mentioned in every other post for the next two years. Ugh.

Right. Even when the Reds' pitching is 15th in NL team ERA.

I don't like the acquisition but I like less that he'll be the scapegoat for everything.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 12:45 AM
Walt has stated just the opposite. Taveras is the leadoff hitter and starting CF. That is why he was signed.

In order for Taveras not to suck, he has to do three things:


replicate his OBP from 2007
Replicate or exceed his SB totals AND SB%
exceed his BB totals by at the very least doubling them from 2008. That will offset his likely low to middling BA.
Increase his power output by at least 20%. I don't mean HR's, I mean doubles and triples. in bunches.


And I don't recall Walt Jocketty being named Reds manager as well as GM. He's been a CF/Leadoff hitter in the past. We need both a CF and a leadoff hitter. But I'll be flat-out shocked if they hand it to him. He'll have to earn it in ST. In the end it'll be Dusty's decision. If Dickerson earns it, he'll get it. If Stubbs or someother kid earns it, he'll get it. People can say what they want about Dusty, but I've seen no evidence that he starts vets over kids. In fact, I saw exactly the opposite in 2008.

And to be precise...Jocketty said this (keep in mind that Fay typed these quotes...so they're probably incorrect *grin*)...


"Willy Taveras fills two significant needs for our ball club, a speed base stealing threat at the top of the order and superior defense in center field," said Jockettty.



Walt Jocketty on the Willy Taveras signing:
--"He fills a couple of needs. He gives us very good defense in center field, and he's potentially a very good leadoff man."
Jocketty sadi in order to do that Taveras has to get his on-base percentage close to .367 like it was in the 2007, rather than the .308 it was last season: "He needs to get back to way he was swinging the bat and getting on base a couple of years ago. Jamie Quirk, who's with us now was with Willy in Colorado, feels like Willy can get back to that."

Nowhere in those quotes does Walt say that he's the starting CF'er or the starting leadoff hitter. He says he's potentially a very good leadoff man. If he doesn't reach that potential, he possibly won't be the leadoff man. He also says he brings good CF defense...not that he's being handed the CF starters job. Let's stop the panic already. ST will decide who'll play where.

RedsManRick
12-28-2008, 12:49 AM
By the way, I'm sure it's been said earlier in this thread, but what happens if you put Chris Dickerson out there for 650 PAs in CF? Isn't the absolute worst case scenario that he puts up a season like Willy Taveras (fast, good defense, no bat)?

Exactly. The only difference is that Taveras is faster and hits for a decent average by bunting instead of taking walks. Oh yeah, he's a "proven vet".

flyer85
12-28-2008, 12:51 AM
Exactly. The only difference is that Taveras is faster and hits for a decent average by bunting instead of taking walks. Oh yeah, he's a "proven vet".
I've heard he sprints to his position

KronoRed
12-28-2008, 12:52 AM
By the way, I'm sure it's been said earlier in this thread, but what happens if you put Chris Dickerson out there for 650 PAs in CF? Isn't the absolute worst case scenario that he puts up a season like Willy Taveras (fast, good defense, no bat)?

Indeed, this isn't the first time the Reds, frightened of an unknown who might suck, went out and sign a known player who does suck.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 12:53 AM
People can say what they want about Dusty, but I've seen no evidence that he starts vets over kids. In fact, I saw exactly the opposite in 2008.


I'm not sure I watched the same season as you did in 2008.

Tom Servo
12-28-2008, 12:56 AM
Still no idea what this is costing the Reds?

(Cue the jokes about "a playoff birth.")
Their dignity. :thumbup:

cumberlandreds
12-28-2008, 01:05 AM
I haven't read through all of this thread so some of what I will say has probably been said.
I think signing a CF to bat leadoff was one of the least of the Reds needs. To me Dickerson was just fine although I know he had just short stay last season. I hope Taveras works out but I'm very skeptical. His numbers dropped a lot last season. Usually when this type of players numbers start dropping it turns into a sharp decline. Also it doesn't matter how much he gets on base if the Reds don't have anyone to drive him in on a consistent basis. Where's that big bat to play LF? If the Reds don't get that then 2009 will be very much like 2008. There's still some bats available out there but I'm starting to sense the Reds are out of the loop on getting any of them.

remdog
12-28-2008, 01:05 AM
So...who IS that answer then? Who out there on the free agent market is there this year that is the answer to our problems?

*waits patiently*



I fully agree with many here that Taveras should not be leading off. I think that's fairly obvious. But I've got no problem at all with his defense, his speed or his hitting for that matter. I'm not expecting him to be a slugger. Heck, I'm not even expecting him to be handed the CF starting job. The results of ST will determine that. Jocketty is in charge or acquiring the players...Baker is in charge of who plays and where. If Jocketty is going to be taking over who bats where and where players play...then he needs to dump the manager whoever he is. And to be clear, this isn't Dusty bashing either. Other than his batting orders and his choice of starters in the first half, I didn't really have much of a problem with Baker. But to be fair, he didn't have many other options did he?

I think too many people here are assuming that Taveras will start in CF and lead off simply because of what Walt said. If asked again, I bet he'll say it's Dusty's decision and that decision will be made after ST.

WOW! That's just incredible denial, IMO.

Just WOW!

Rem

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:06 AM
I'm not sure I watched the same season as you did in 2008.

Votto over Hatteberg
Hanigan over Bako/Javy/Ross
Bruce over Junior
Dickerson, Janish, Rosales and a few others also got shots.

With the pitching staff he handled the kids quite well IMO and he didn't favor the vets over the kids. Cueto, Volquez, Ramirez, Herrera, Roenicke, Thompson and several others all got thier fair share of time on the bump. And other than that one SD 18 inning game, I didn't see him abuse any pitcher.

Other than a few complaints, I was happy with how Dusty handled things with what he had to work with.

OnBaseMachine
12-28-2008, 01:12 AM
or be around .300

So, you think Jay Bruce sucks?

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:12 AM
WOW! That's just incredible denial, IMO.

Just WOW!

Rem

How so? Where did YOU see Walt state that Taveras is being handed the starting CF/leadoff job? When did you see Walt make out the lineup? When did you see Walt make a statement of anything but support for Dusty? And lastly, when did you see Walt make a statement that this was his last move of the offseason?

I'm sure Jocketty has some influence and input on the starting positions but I'm also sure that he'll leave the final decision in Dusty's hands.

I take it you disagree?

flyer85
12-28-2008, 01:16 AM
So, you think Jay Bruce sucks?his OBP was barely over .310 last year. Someone said he could be around 330, I just pointed out it could be ~300 just as easily. Kid has some pop but is seriously lacking in plate discipline at this point, however, he has time on his side.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 01:20 AM
Votto over Hatteberg
Hanigan over Bako/Javy/Ross
Bruce over Junior
Dickerson, Janish, Rosales and a few others also got shots.

Say what?

Junior was traded. Bruce was the top prospect in baseball anyway.

Hanigan was a late-season call up.

Dickerson was also a late season call up and Janish was called up when Kepp broke his kneecap.

Rosales had 30 plate appearances as a late-season call up.

AmarilloRed
12-28-2008, 01:22 AM
I will say 2 good things about Willie Taveras:

1. He has led the majors in infield hits since 2005

2. He led the majors in SB and SB Pct.(68 of 75) last year.

All that being said, it is a terrible signing. He simply is not good at scoring runs, which is what you need out of a leadoff man. We only gave Patterson 1 year. I don't think it is a given that he will be given 600 ABs, however. If he turns out to be the 2009 version of Patterson, he will lose the starting job the way Patterson did. I won't jump off the bridge just yet, but I am not pleased at all.

Ron Madden
12-28-2008, 01:23 AM
How so? Where did YOU see Walt state that Taveras is being handed the starting CF/leadoff job? When did you see Walt make out the lineup? When did you see Walt make a statement of anything but support for Dusty? And lastly, when did you see Walt make a statement that this was his last move of the offseason?

I'm sure Jocketty has some influence and input on the starting positions but I'm also sure that he'll leave the final decision in Dusty's hands.

I take it you disagree?


I agree with Rem. (Wow)


The more you try to defend this deal, the worse you make your case sound.

remdog
12-28-2008, 01:26 AM
How so? Where did YOU see Walt state that Taveras is being handed the starting CF/leadoff job? When did you see Walt make out the lineup? When did you see Walt make a statement of anything but support for Dusty? And lastly, when did you see Walt make a statement that this was his last move of the offseason?

I'm sure Jocketty has some influence and input on the starting positions but I'm also sure that he'll leave the final decision in Dusty's hands.

I take it you disagree?

No, I don't disagree---I vehemently disagree. Throughout this whole thread you've been presented with evidence that your position is not likely to prevail. Now, you turn a blind eye to what has been said by Jockety and what Baker has done in the past. (famous shrug) You continue to ignore both. That is the definition of a naive person.

You're certainly welcome to continue on this path but don't be surprised if no one gives creadence to your opinion.

Rem

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:26 AM
Say what?

Junior was traded. Bruce was the top prospect in baseball anyway.

Hanigan was a late-season call up.

Dickerson was also a late season call up and Janish was called up when Kepp broke his kneecap.

Rosales had 30 plate appearances as a late-season call up.

I'm aware of those things. But other than Rosales, I certainly didn't see any hesitation on Dusty's part to play the kids and to even start them. Hanigan was getting starts over Bako/Javy. Regardless of what time of the year it was, he did. Same for several others. I didn't see any kids languishing on the bench under Dusty (except Rosales for some unknown reason).

OnBaseMachine
12-28-2008, 01:32 AM
From Walt Jocketty 12.27
Saturday, December 27, 2008, 05:12 PM EST [Reds]

Just got off the phone with Walt Jocketty about Taveras and some other things.

On whether this signifies a change in the Reds' philosophy, going with a speed guy and not really replacing some of the big bats that left: "It’s more of what was available for us and what we had to do to improve the club. Our goal was to build on our pitching and improve our defense which helps our pitching. We feel if we had some offense with speed and it’ll generate enough runs to win some games."

On Taveras' terrible 07: "I think last year was the aberration, I base that a lot on Jamie Quirk who was with Willy the last two years. He saw him in ‘07 and he changed his approach. He has to use his speed to get on base and create havoc."

Jocketty said he thought Taveras "was trying to change his approach in Coors Field. He did not bunt as much last year."

With Bruce in right, Taveras in center, what about left: "At the present it’s Dickerson and Hopper and whatever else we end up doing."

As for those other things...

Jerry Hairston: "I talked to them before Christmas." Jocketty said he still would hope to sign Hairston, and he could be in the left field mix -- "We’re still trying to get Hairston, we’ll have a different look on our club, but we still have guys like Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Encarnacion and even Hernandez with power."

Pat Burrell: "We haven’t talked to them at all for a while. We’re going to hold back and see what else happens."

Rocco Baldelli: "The health is a big issue, his durability and how much he’ll play. We’ll continue to look."

The Yankees outfield glut (Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady): "We’ve had some discussions, I wouldn’t say anything's close."

Barry Bonds/Sammy Sosa: "I don't think so."

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog

RedEye
12-28-2008, 01:34 AM
How so? Where did YOU see Walt state that Taveras is being handed the starting CF/leadoff job? When did you see Walt make out the lineup?

From the Reds.com article:


The Reds now have four outfielders on their 40-man roster in Taveras, right fielder Jay Bruce, Chris Dickerson and Norris Hopper. If they can't add the power hitter they're looking for, Dickerson and Hopper could platoon in left field.


"With Bruce and Taveras, we have two of our outfield spots filled," Jocketty said. "We'd like to add another hitter, but if we don't, we have good pitching and defense and speed. We could find ways to manufacture runs without a big RBI guy."

To me, these excerpts offer all but direct evidence that Willy Taveras is the starting CF and leadoff hitter on your 2009 Cincinnati Reds. What's more, if Walt doesn't sign another OF, we can look forward to a Hopper-Dickerson platoon in left!

Awe. some.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 01:35 AM
I'm aware of those things. But other than Rosales, I certainly didn't see any hesitation on Dusty's part to play the kids and to even start them. Hanigan was getting starts over Bako/Javy. Regardless of what time of the year it was, he did. Same for several others. I didn't see any kids languishing on the bench under Dusty (except Rosales for some unknown reason).

Bako/Valentin/Ross logged over 650 plate appearances. Hanigan had 89 PA's and many of those came after Ross was let go and Javy and Bako continued to be Javy and Bako (really bad).

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:35 AM
No, I don't disagree---I vehemently disagree. Throughout this whole thread you've been presented with evidence that your position is not likely to prevail. Now, you turn a blind eye to what has been said by Jockety and what Baker has done in the past. (famous shrug) You continue to ignore both. That is the definition of a naive person.

You're certainly welcome to continue on this path but don't be surprised if no one gives creadence to your opinion.

Rem

Fine, disagree. But instead of that, how about you go back and RE-READ what Jocketty stated. He never said that Taveras is the starter or the leadoff hitter.

As for what Baker has done in the past, I don't discount that. Given his tendancies...I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up leading off and playing center. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dickerson there if he performed well in ST. Dusty's not an idiot. While you may not like him or his style, he certainly knows the game better than a bunch of message board junkies like us. As does Walt.


I agree with Rem. (Wow)


The more you try to defend this deal, the worse you make your case sound. Today 11:22 PM

Again, the only defense I'm giving this deal is that we've brought in an OF'er for a short term contract and we didn't have to give away any prospects. If he puts up the numbers he did last year and is handed the starting position...I won't be happy. If he reverts to his career norms...I'll be satisfied. But as long as he gives the kids time to develop on the farm...he'll have served his purpose. He's a stopgap. That's the defense of this deal.

And as I've also said numerous times, where's the better option out there right now on the FA market? Keep in mind, they'd need to accept a short term deal for an acceptable amount and they'd need to play solid defense.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 01:38 AM
Our goal was to build on our pitching and improve our defense which helps our pitching.[/url]

Well, we know it didn't improve the defense.

I understand it could be typical GM speak, but what I'm worried about is that Walt actually believes it.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:42 AM
To me, these excerpts offer all but direct evidence that Willy Taveras is the starting CF and leadoff hitter on your 2009 Cincinnati Reds. What's more, if Walt doesn't sign another OF, we can look forward to a Hopper-Dickerson platoon in left!

Awe. some.

All that was saying is that we've got 2 outfielders. Not that he's the starter. Do you seriously think we're only going to carry Hopper, Bruce, Taveras & Dickerson as OF'ers in 2008? Either kids will come up, players will relocate or more will come in from outside. But yes, as things stand TODAY...with only those 4 OF'ers on the roster, it'd be Dickerson/Taveras/Bruce. As of right now, it's all assumptions and then people here running wild with those assumptions.

If Taveras ends up being the 4th outfielder, would people have a problem with it? I doubt it. And after all is said and done, that's almost as likely an outcome as anything.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 01:44 AM
All that was saying is that we've got 2 outfielders. Not that he's the starter. Do you seriously think we're only going to carry Hopper, Bruce, Taveras & Dickerson as OF'ers in 2008? Either kids will come up, players will relocate or more will come in from outside. But yes, as things stand TODAY...with only those 4 OF'ers on the roster, it'd be Dickerson/Taveras/Bruce. As of right now, it's all assumptions and then people here running wild with those assumptions.

If Taveras ends up being the 4th outfielder, would people have a problem with it? I doubt it. And after all is said and done, that's almost as likely an outcome as anything.


You want to place a wager against him leading off in CF on opening day?

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:45 AM
Bako/Valentin/Ross logged over 650 plate appearances. Hanigan had 89 PA's and many of those came after Ross was let go and Javy and Bako continued to be Javy and Bako (really bad).

They brought Hanigan up when they felt he was ready. Until he was brought up Dusty had no choice but to play the vets. It's the GM's call on when to bring guys up, right? Once Hanigan came up, he got MORE than his fair share of the starts. I certainly wouldn't want them to simply dump it ALL on him as a rook. It's just that I was always hearing that Dusty would just sit the kids and put them to sleep. I didn't see that at all in 2008.

RedEye
12-28-2008, 01:47 AM
All that was saying is that we've got 2 outfielders. Not that he's the starter. Do you seriously think we're only going to carry Hopper, Bruce, Taveras & Dickerson as OF'ers in 2008? Either kids will come up, players will relocate or more will come in from outside. But yes, as things stand TODAY...with only those 4 OF'ers on the roster, it'd be Dickerson/Taveras/Bruce. As of right now, it's all assumptions and then people here running wild with those assumptions.


My claim is based on only one wild assumption--that Walt is telling the truth here:


"With Bruce and Taveras, we have two of our outfield spots filled," Jocketty said.
Willy Taveras will be the starting Reds CF in 2009. Like it or lump it.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 01:50 AM
They brought Hanigan up when they felt he was ready. Until he was brought up Dusty had no choice but to play the vets. It's the GM's call on when to bring guys up, right? Once Hanigan came up, he got MORE than his fair share of the starts. I certainly wouldn't want them to simply dump it ALL on him as a rook. It's just that I was always hearing that Dusty would just sit the kids and put them to sleep. I didn't see that at all in 2008.

Where in any of this does this lead you to make the statement you made below?



People can say what they want about Dusty, but I've seen no evidence that he starts vets over kids. In fact, I saw exactly the opposite in 2008.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:51 AM
Well, we know it didn't improve the defense.

I understand it could be typical GM speak, but what I'm worried about is that Walt actually believes it.

Taveras isn't an improvement over Hopper? Because that's who our other option was on the current roster. And despite what some say here, I think Taveras is a very good defender. I didn't see him much in Colorado, but I thought he did an excellent job for Houston defensively. He's better than Junior was recently, he's better than Freel, he's better than Hopper, and he's better than Hairston. Only Hamilton & Patterson had better CF defense in recent years as I recall. Patterson is gone (thank god), and there is no Hamiton available that I see on the market. It's time to take what you can get to bide your time for the farm to produce.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 01:54 AM
Taveras isn't an improvement over Hopper?


No.

And he's definitely not an improvement (in CF) over one Mr. Corey Patterson.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:54 AM
Where in any of this does this lead you to make the statement you made below?

Simple. When he had a kid and a vet on the roster at the same time, he was playing the kid just as much (if not more) than the vet.

Votto & Hatteberg...Votto got the nod.
Bruce & Griffey...quite often, Bruce got the nod...or someone else got bumped so Bruce could get the start.
Hanigan & Bako...fairly even PT.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 01:57 AM
No.

And he's definitely not an improvement (in CF) over one Mr. Corey Patterson.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I think he's much better than Hopper defensively. And while Patterson has the strong edge defensively, in all the other areas Taveras has the edge (except in HR's).

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 01:57 AM
He's better than Junior was recently,

Who isn't?


he's better than Freel, he's better than Hopper, and he's better than Hairston.

Honestly, I don't think he is.

Reds Nd2
12-28-2008, 01:58 AM
My girlfriend and her son are Red Sox fans. Maybe it's time....

My girlfriend and her two daughters don't even like baseball. But her youngest daughter did watch some of the playoffs with me this year and the girlfriend is up for going to some minor league games next season. So there is still hope.


BF and his buddies over at Reds.com love this move.


That should tell ya somethin'.


;)

Reds.com still has a message board? Who new? I would have thought that place would have imploded by the weight of it's own B.S. by now.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 01:59 AM
And while Patterson has the strong edge defensively, in all the other areas Taveras has the edge (except in HR's).

In what other areas? SB's? That's it.

Reds Nd2
12-28-2008, 01:59 AM
I'm not saying I like the Willy T. signing, but I'm not going to let his signing ruin my outlook for 2009-2010.

In four full seasons he has played on three winning teams. He has appeared in two World series.

The Reds would have been better off signing some of the other twenty-four guys on those winning teams.

WVRedsFan
12-28-2008, 02:01 AM
I was a tad disappointed with Willy's acquisition. Not enough to give up my fandom, but disappointed nonetheless. I go back to the days of Vada Pinson when a center fielder, a good defensive center fielder could also hit 15-20 HR's. I'm still not sold on whether or not Traveras is a good defensive CF player, but I look at his statistics over his career and see Ryan Freel with a brain. While Traveras has averaged over 40 SB's per year and gets caught not so often (or make bone-headed baserunning errors) as Freel, the RBI and OBP stats are close. I wanted more. In these troubled economic times, I guess a Willie Mays replacement wasn't available. Oh well.

I'm still waiting for offense. With Dunn and Griffey gone, we need to replace +/- 180 RBI's in this lineup. You can have all the defense and pitching you want, but you must score runs and we haven't improved that much at all.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 02:01 AM
Bruce & Griffey...quite often, Bruce got the nod...or someone else got bumped so Bruce could get the start.


Before he was traded, Griffey got more than 430 plate appearances.

Reds Nd2
12-28-2008, 02:02 AM
I could see Willy doing better here in Cincinnati than he did in Colorado defensively.

How exactly? He's moving into a park where his speed won't be as valuable on defense as it was in his former home.

Reds Nd2
12-28-2008, 02:03 AM
This is making my not renewing MLB Extra Innings decision a little easier.

There's still another twenty-nine teams to watch. With black out rules what they are, it makes my decision to switch from MLB.tv to Extra Innings a bit easier though.

Reds Nd2
12-28-2008, 02:04 AM
You act like getting the most consistently underproductive CF in baseball during the past decade is a bad thing.

Willy Taveras, your starting CF for Hacking Mass 2009.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 02:06 AM
In what other areas? SB's? That's it.

Umm...let's see. Better hitter for average, draws more walks, strikes out less. He even hits for a better OBP, and we all know how much RZ'ers love that stat. :O) Corey hits more dingers and plays better defense, that's it. It's his massive suckitude in the other areas that throws his name out of the equation.

REDREAD
12-28-2008, 02:08 AM
The real issue is can he score a lot of runs at the top of the lineup and there really isn't any "issue" there. He never has and he's almost guaranteed not to do it in a Reds uniform. OB is just the leading reason why he won't do it.

Yes, I agree with this. He is not the ideal leadoff hitter by any means.

The Reds didn't have any leadoff hitter before this signing. If we get the 2007 version of Willy T, we have one. If we get the 2008 version, we have a horrible leadoff hitter if they chose to use Willly T like that.

Personally, I can't see why some people are threatening to stop watching the Reds over this move. There really wasn't many alternatives. Dorn and Stubbs would hit worse. We needed to sign some OF just to field a team next year. We needed a guy that could play CF in case of injures.

As long as the $$ amount was reasonable, this signing isn't a huge deal. It's good to give Dickerson some competition. Also, it appears that Walt is having a very difficult time trading our trade bait (ie Homer and second teir prospects) for legitimate OF talent. No one wants to trade Votto and the other good young players, so there's not a whole lot of alternatives.

I did get a laugh at the poster that said this eliminates us from playoff competition. No offense to him, but we were eliminated from the 2009 playoff competition as soon as the 2008 season ended. Too many holes to fill. Even if we sold off the entire farm to try to win now, it would not be possible unless Cast was willing to dump 500 million in free agency.

Willy T gives us some depth until something better comes along. I'm guessing his salary is low enough that he can be a backup player when a better option comes along. It's not going to cripple us. He might surprise us with a decent year next year. Maybe not.

D-Man
12-28-2008, 02:11 AM
How about if I can show that 08 was just Willy returning to his norm?

Let me use a slightly different number, RC per 100 PA.

05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)

Where do you get your RC numbers? Hardball Times shows data that is much different than what you have presented. Consequently, I interpret it much differently.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?playerId=1876&lastName=Taveras&firstName=Willy


Year RC PA RC/100 RC/600
2005 63 635 9.92 59.53
2006 65 587 11.07 66.44
2007 52 408 12.75 76.47
2008 47 538 8.74 52.42
Total 227 2168 10.47 62.82


His 2007 and 2008 production were both out of line w/ career norms, but the net effect of both years is close to his career average for RC.

This isn't the move I would have made, but the Reds have needed a legit flycatcher in CF for some time. I think Taveras brings good (potentially great) defensive attributes to the table. (1) He made a lot of out-of-zone (OOZ) plays in 2008, which suggests that he can cover a lot of ground. Adjusted for innings, he made 75 OOZ plays per 1,000 innings, whereas Reds CFers made 67. [note: there may be methodological problems with comparing OOZ data from players on different teams, so we need to be cautious here.] (2) He has one of the best outfield arms in the business. John Walsh is smarter than all of us, and his work suggests Taveras saved ~6 runs per 200 opportunities in each of 2007 and 2008.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2007/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2006/

The net effect of (1) and (2) above is that we should see a decline in extra-base hits and, by extension, big innings.

My biggest concern is Dusty's penchant for using CFer in the leadoff position. Taveras could be useful manufacturing runs toward the bottom half of the lineup, but he has no business leading off.

Tom Servo
12-28-2008, 02:12 AM
The Yankees outfield glut (Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady): "We’ve had some discussions, I wouldn’t say anything's close."

Not with that attitude, Walt! Go get Swisher and make all (most) of us feel a bit better.


Hell at this point I'd be happy with Nady.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 02:12 AM
Umm...let's see. Better hitter for average, draws more walks, strikes out less. He even hits for a better OBP, and we all know how much RZ'ers love that stat. :O) Corey hits more dingers and plays better defense, that's it. It's his massive suckitude in the other areas that throws his name out of the equation.

Walk difference is slim.

OPS+

Patterson +79
Taveras +72

REDREAD
12-28-2008, 02:14 AM
Taveras just turned 27 and has played four years.


Yes, Tavaras and Dickerson are about the same age.
The difference is that Tavaras has been playing MLB for the past 4 years.
Yet, Tavaras can't improve/bounce back, but some have pretty high hopes for Dickerson.

I agree with you that Tavaras' defense in CF is certainly adequate.
Walt isn't stupid, despite what some people think.

_Sir_Charles_
12-28-2008, 02:15 AM
Before he was traded, Griffey got more than 430 plate appearances.

And Bruce wasn't here for all of that either, was he? He didn't come up until later. Bruce also got lots of starts over vets Patterson & Freel too. He would also sit Junior down after 2 or 3 ab's and swap Bruce over to Right in place of Junior. Hardly vet favoritism.

My point is that I didn't see the kids sitting on the bench while the vets played...just because they were vets. That's what was always said about Dusty's tendencies.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 02:19 AM
And Bruce wasn't here for all of that either, was he? He didn't come up until later. Bruce also got lots of starts over vets Patterson & Freel too. He would also sit Junior down after 2 or 3 ab's and swap Bruce over to Right in place of Junior. Hardly vet favoritism.

And yet hardly the opposite (playing the kids over vets) which is what you posted.

WVRedsFan
12-28-2008, 02:24 AM
And Bruce wasn't here for all of that either, was he? He didn't come up until later. Bruce also got lots of starts over vets Patterson & Freel too. He would also sit Junior down after 2 or 3 ab's and swap Bruce over to Right in place of Junior. Hardly vet favoritism.

My point is that I didn't see the kids sitting on the bench while the vets played...just because they were vets. That's what was always said about Dusty's tendencies.

Give it up Sir Charles. Willy is the new whipping boy. I'm not happy with this, but it's better than the alternative. And we still haven't found any offense. Maybe we should trade for another pitcher? That's the ticket. More pitching so we can lose more 2-1 games?

Forgive me.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 02:26 AM
Give it up Sir Charles. Willy is the new whipping boy. I'm not happy with this, but it's better than the alternative. And we still haven't found any offense. Maybe we should trade for another pitcher? That's the ticket. More pitching so we can lose more 2-1 games?

Forgive me.

Hey, WV. Way to take it to my Bucks today. Wow. That was a butt kicking.

SMcGavin
12-28-2008, 02:26 AM
Indeed, this isn't the first time the Reds, frightened of an unknown who might suck, went out and sign a known player who does suck.

Well said, that's a great way of putting it.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 02:28 AM
Well said, that's a great way of putting it.


Krono has a way of doing that in just a few words.

Reds Nd2
12-28-2008, 02:29 AM
~Saberstats make my head hurt. Can't we just go with "awesome" or "not awesome"? Makes it easier on everybody.

Willy Taveras is "not awsome".

If it isn't clear to you now, it will soon become painfully clear once the season starts.

WVRedsFan
12-28-2008, 02:30 AM
Hey, WV. Way to take it to my Bucks today. Wow. That was a butt kicking.

Thanks, BR.

Bobby Huggins is probably the best college basketball coach left in America. He came to WVU with a bunch of players no one wanted, worked with them, and turned them into a team that was predicted to finish next to last in the Big East into a Sweet 16 team. It amazes me that no one in American recognizes his brilliance. I am proud to call him my coach and my friend.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-28-2008, 02:36 AM
Thanks, BR.

Bobby Huggins is probably the best college basketball coach left in America. He came to WVU with a bunch of players no one wanted, worked with them, and turned them into a team that was predicted to finish next to last in the Big East into a Sweet 16 team. It amazes me that no one in American recognizes his brilliance. I am proud to call him my coach and my friend.

Agree, he's a great coach. I wanted him to come to Columbus after they fired Obie, but I'm happy with Matta.

I remember Larry Huggins lighting it up like it was yesterday.

Team Clark
12-28-2008, 02:54 AM
Not the best signing but it is better than Hopper as your everyday CF. Not by much, but better. Somewhat...

MWM
12-28-2008, 03:06 AM
I bet Marty is happy.

Razor Shines
12-28-2008, 03:13 AM
Fine, disagree. But instead of that, how about you go back and RE-READ what Jocketty stated. He never said that Taveras is the starter or the leadoff hitter.

As for what Baker has done in the past, I don't discount that. Given his tendancies...I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up leading off and playing center. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dickerson there if he performed well in ST. Dusty's not an idiot. While you may not like him or his style, he certainly knows the game better than a bunch of message board junkies like us. As does Walt.




You know when I first came to this board that was one of my biggest arguments against the "stat guys", but I really have had to re-think that one. Dusty was good at playing baseball, I'm not sure that means he knows the game better than some guys on this board. As for Jocketty, he's certainly put in the work to get to where he is, but just because he has the connections and the resume to do his job doesn't mean he knows the game better than some. Can he negotiate trades and contracts better than everyone on this board? Yes. Does he know the game of baseball better than everyone on this board? I have to say no. I feel really awkward saying that but I honestly believe it.

And just to pile on a little more, I didn't think the feeling of dirtiness that came with the Cory Patterson signing could be replicated, but my hat's off to you Walt. I feel very dirty, absolutely filthy. This sucks, in '08 the league figured out that you don't have to pitch Willy in the strike zone to get him out and we're going to be forced to watch him swing at bad pitch after bad pitch for 2 years, with no hope that he might get lucky and muscle one over wall. Goody.

GAC
12-28-2008, 04:58 AM
Thank you. A bit of optimism. I agree that .308 is very poor, but it's also been his worst season to date.

2005: .325
2006: .333
2007: .367

Are any of those great? No, but considering his other attributes, I'd take it for a 2 year FA signing.

But what are his other attributes? Especially from the offensive perspective?

Jocketty stated that he is hoping Willy returns to form. But lets take a look at that form, especially as a lead off hitter.

The guy has a career .668 OPS, as well as averaging 35 BBs/season, a BB/PA of .054, a #P/PA of 3.58. He's a hacker with no plate discipline aka Brandon Phillips.... yet without the Slg %.

I just want to see what kind of money they gave him.


And the defensive improvement can only bolster the development of our young pitching.

IMO, his defense cannot come anywhere near offsetting the run differential. Our offense scored 704 runs last season, while our pitching allowed 800. I look at this offense going into '09 and I don't see any great improvement as far as runs go. Maybe a slight jump. We're hoping our pitching will improve with Harang returning to form, Arroyo repeating his 2nd half performance (not the 1st), Cueto improving, and Volquez at least matching his '08.

We're counting on a lot of hope and finger crossing going into this new season.

All I know is that Dusty is sitting at hope and salivating in his egg nog with a roster of speedy players who can "make things happen". And that "thing" is giving up a helluva lot of outs IMO.

We might lead the majors in stolen bases, but our attempts will probably quadruple with Baker experimenting with all types of situational hitting to force the issue and produce offense. ;)

dougdirt
12-28-2008, 05:58 AM
Well, its 5am and I still don't feel any better about this. Still want to vomit. The Reds are pushing me closer and closer to taking up alcohol, and lots of it.

Tom Servo
12-28-2008, 06:07 AM
I took a nap before and when I woke up I was hoping that somehow I had merely dreamed the Taveras signing. Alas...

edabbs44
12-28-2008, 07:17 AM
Reds think speed's the ticket
Signing Taveras signals new direction
By John Fay • jfay@enquirer.com • December 28, 2008

The signing of Willy Taveras might be a precursor to a new, different type of Reds team.


General manager Walt Jocketty said as much when he said the club is still interested in bringing back Jerry Hairston Jr.

"He could end up being the left fielder if we can't get that RBI man, which might be hard to do at this point," Jocketty said. "We may have a different type of team, where we rely on speed and defense and try to manufacture runs. We've still got some guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark - (Joey) Votto, (Jay) Bruce and (Edwin) Encarnacion. But we're going to be a little bit different kind of team."

How different? Consider the Reds had Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn as starting outfielders for the past seven seasons. Griffey and Dunn have 889 home runs between them. Taveras and Hairston have 46.

The Reds targeted Taveras as soon as the Colorado Rockies, his last club, didn't offer him a 2009 contract. The Reds were the first team to call, and quickly made an offer.

"He fills a couple of needs," Jocketty said. "He gives us very good defense in center field, and he's potentially a very good leadoff man."

Potentially is the key word in that sentence.

Taveras is coming off a year in which he hit .251 and had a .308 on-base percentage.

"He needs to get back to the way he was swinging the bat and getting on base a couple of years ago," Jocketty said. "Jamie Quirk, who's with us now, was with Willy in Colorado and feels like Willy can get back to that."

Taveras hit .320 and had a .367 on-base in 2007. His career on-base percentage is .331. He has virtually no power. His career slugging percentage is .337. He has 80 extra-base hits in 1,973 career at-bats.

Taveras is one of the fastest runners in baseball. He led the majors with 68 steals last season and was caught only seven times in 75 attempts.

Taveras is still young. He turned 27 on Dec. 25. He sees this as an opportunity to get his career back on track.

"It's a young team," he said. "I think I fit in well. I'll come in and play hard. I'm happy to play for Dusty (Baker). It's an opportunity to play every day, no matter what happened the day before."

Taveras mentioned Baker several times in a conference call with reporters.

"I've heard from plenty of guys that he lets you do what you do well," Taveras said. "I'm looking forward to playing for him."

Taveras broke into the majors with the Houston Astros.

"A couple of teams were interested," he said. "The best situation was with the Reds. I really like playing in the Central Division. I feel lucky to play for Dusty."

The Reds have an offer out to Hairston. They are still in the running to sign Rocco Baldelli, another free-agent outfielder. Jocketty said the Reds still are looking into Baldelli's medical reports but expect to have further discussions.


http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20081228/SPT04/812280439/1071

Raisor
12-28-2008, 08:43 AM
Where do you get your RC numbers? Hardball Times shows data that is much different than what you have presented. Consequently, I interpret it much differently.



Got them from ESPN.com

Don't really see that much of a difference.


Year RC PA RC/100 RC/600
2005 63 635 9.92 (11.01) 59.53 (66.06)
2006 65 587 11.07 (11.11) 66.44(66.66)
2007 52 408 12.75 (14.09) 76.47 (84.54)
2008 47 538 8.74 (10.54) 52.42(63.24)
Total 227 2168 10.47 62.82


If anything, the Hardball numbers make him seem worse then the ESPN numbers.
.[/QUOTE]

Marty and Joe
12-28-2008, 08:52 AM
With the Taveras signing and Walt's mention of potentially going smallball or finding other ways to manufacture runs... the next logical move is to convince Hopper to become the every day bunting coach versus spending his time in AAA.

He could spend all of his time teaching Taveras and Dickerson how to bunt for basehits and everyone else - pitchers of course included - to bunt period.

Only half joking.

remdog
12-28-2008, 09:26 AM
Bruce also got lots of starts over vets Patterson & Freel too.

Bruce was called up 5/27/08. Freel went to the DL (for the rest of the year) on 6/4/08. They were both on the active roster at the same time for about one week so that's a bogus point.

Rem

wheels
12-28-2008, 09:47 AM
Well, its 5am and I still don't feel any better about this. Still want to vomit. The Reds are pushing me closer and closer to taking up alcohol, and lots of it.

Russel's Reserve Rye Whisky on the rocks did the trick for me last night.

It was almost like it never happened.

And then I woke up this morning.

It's a horrible time to be a Reds fan.

lollipopcurve
12-28-2008, 09:51 AM
We're counting on a lot of hope and finger crossing going into this new season.

That's baseball.

Raisor
12-28-2008, 09:53 AM
Not the best signing but it is better than Hopper as your everyday CF. Not by much, but better. Somewhat...


Norris Hopper has been WAY better on offense then Willy T in their careers.

OBP-367
SLG-.371
OPS-738
OPS+ 89

In fact, Hopper's career numbers look alot like Willy T's career YEAR.

Willy T 2007
OBP-.367
SLG-382
OPS-749
OPS+ 89

With more PA's Hopper would crash and burn, just like Willy T has. I'm just saying that the Reds already have a Taveras on the team.

Ltlabner
12-28-2008, 10:28 AM
The way I look at it, his lack of power is compensated somewhat by his basestealing skills. Those singles are turned into doubles and triples after the SB's essentially. .

Except that his EqA, which measures production including base running has only once exceeded .260. .260 is considered average. Most of the time (75% of his playing time) he's been far below average.

So there's absolutely no evidence that his speed offsets his inability to find first base or lack of power.

Ltlabner
12-28-2008, 10:40 AM
Here's what it boils down to.

Those who don't like the move (myself included) have thrown up post after post of actual, real, historical data of what Tavaras actually did (or more accurately, didn't do).

Those who like the deal have made the case his speed "somehow" offsets his lack of finding first base. Toss in some "walks are icky" and misunderstanding of how runs are actually created for good measure.

I know which case I find more compelling.