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View Full Version : So... Are we better yet?



jesusfan
12-29-2008, 09:55 AM
Lost:

Adam Dunn
Ken Griffey Jr
Ryan Freel
Jeremy Affeldt
David Ross
Javier Valentin
Jerry Hairston Jr?
Corey Patterson
Paul Bako

Added:
Willy Taveras
Ramon Hernandez
Arthur Rhodes


I know Walt isn't finished yet, but just a breakdown of what we have lost and what we have added as of 12/29/2008. Ramon Hernandez will provide much more imho than Paul Bako or David Ross... Willy Taveras is much better than Patterson and will be Ryan Freel with more speed, but lower OBP. Arthur Rhodes will be Jeremy Affeldt, considering his age we will have to wait and see though.

So, the question is this: How have we replaced the offensive production from Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn, particularly Dunn??? The answer is we haven't. I know Griffey and Dunn hurt us in the outfield, but the fact is that we have to find a way to replace their 210 hits, 55 home runs and 153 RBI... Don't feed me crap that Hairston will be the answer because he isn't. He is a great utility type bench player, but he will NEVER be able to play full time. He might prove me wrong, but he is very injury prone.

In conclusion.. I really do feel that Taveras will be a lot more productive than Patterson and a bit more productive than Ryan Freel (Call me crazy) Ramon Hernandez will be a bit more productive than Ross/Valentin and Rhodes production will be right around Affeldt's. THE MAJOR QUESTION of the off- season is how we replace those offensive numbers from Griffey and Dunn. I know some will answer that Bruce, Votto, Edwin and Phillips will have better numbers. I agree that Bruce and Votto more than likely will, but will it equal 210 more hits, 55 home runs and 153 more RBI. NO... If we want to be anywhere close to competitive Walt simply has to go out and get a solid, productive guy to play LF. Does that mean he has to hit 40-50 Home runs and 130-150 RBI... No, but he does need to be a RUN PRODUCER in order to make up for the big offensive hole that is leaving. I'm done... :thumbup:

RedLegSuperStar
12-29-2008, 10:03 AM
Good post and I agree we need a run producer. Pitching should be above average as we could see improvement from Harang and Cueto aswell as much of the same from Volquez and Arroyo. The bullpen is solid and has some depth. The key to this offseason will be able to get the LFer with pop and the ability to drive in runs.

Ltlabner
12-29-2008, 10:04 AM
The efforts to improve this team so far?

http://backdoorlife.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/epic-fail.jpg

I was ok with the Lincoln re-signing and I think the Hernadez trade, while not overly flashy will strengthen an otherwise cavernous hole behind the plate.

However the Taveras deal is a complete and utter fail. Not only is he an hideous player you are putting a loaded gun in the hands of The Dusty. He just won't be able to help himself and by June we'll be 10 games back.

The lack of any changes at SS is a massive omission. The offseason is still young so there's plenty of time for Walt to come through in the clutch. But if we go into April with Jeff Keppenger as our starting short stop that's an Epic Fail.

Same applies to a big bat(s). While there's plenty of time to do something, if we end up with Jerry Harriston Jr. as our "big bat" it will be time for me to get a new hobby.

wheels
12-29-2008, 10:44 AM
No.

RedlegJake
12-29-2008, 01:41 PM
Yes.

The question is - are we better yet? From the start of 2008? Are you kidding? Unequivocally yes. The starting staff is deeper and better, the relief corps should be about equal, the catching is better, Taveras IS better in CF, that puts Dickerson in rover mode and as a 4th OFer he's better than anything we've had, some offense, speed and great defense, Jay Bruce is here and has some experience under his belt to build on, Votto is no longer the guy trying to break in, no Patterson, no Hatteberg, no Castro or Stanton, or Majewski, or Bako. EE and Phillips both had rather off years, I expect each to put up better numbers. As for Dunn and Junior the replacements to date will be much better on defense, Bruce will out perform what Junior had left without any doubt (at least in my mind), only Dunn's numbers will be hard to replicate BUT Hernandez and Taveras will each outperform their '08 counterparts, so will their backups Hanigan and Dickerson, imo. EE and BP having a bit better years will take up a bit, and Dunn's replacement won't add the same runs but a good portion of what's lost. YES. I expect this team to be better.

Now. Is it better enough? Without a big bat for the middle of the lineup I don't think so. But the question was are they better? Look at opening day '08 and what projects to be opening day '09 right now and I don't see how anyone can claim they're not better. It's just that expectations were that a deal or deals would put the Reds closer to really competing. What we've seen are deals that inch us closer to .500 or just over, while waiting for the the hype to arrive in Frazier, Alonso, a "Bailey who finds it", Dorn, etc in 2011.
2011? Well everything so far has been in the form of 2 year deals so I'd guess that's where the true hope for competing lies. Anything earlier will be "happy accidents"

AtomicDumpling
12-29-2008, 02:14 PM
No.

The team as it stands right now would win fewer games than the Reds did last season.

We have essentially the same bad team right now as we did at the end of 2008. No improvements have been made other than a slightly better catcher.

Jocketty still has plenty of time to improve the team before Opening Day, so hopefully Castellini will allow Walt to spend some money. Otherwise it is going to be an awfully boring season.

jesusfan
12-29-2008, 02:34 PM
It's always waiting for the kids to arrive... Frankly, I'm tired of waiting for that because it never seems to come.

gonelong
12-29-2008, 02:54 PM
Lost:

Adam Dunn
Ken Griffey Jr
Ryan Freel
Jeremy Affeldt
David Ross
Javier Valentin
Jerry Hairston Jr?
Corey Patterson
Paul Bako

Added:
Willy Taveras
Ramon Hernandez
Arthur Rhodes


Not yet, but I doubt they are done yet either. Does anyone have an estimate of how much $$ they still have available to work with?

GL

KronoRed
12-29-2008, 03:01 PM
Not yet, but I doubt they are done yet either. Does anyone have an estimate of how much $$ they still have available to work with?

GL

I woudln't bet on it being much, like many, BobC has probably has taken quite a hit these last few months.

KronoRed
12-29-2008, 03:02 PM
Oh, and this team is far worse then last season.

jesusfan
12-29-2008, 03:03 PM
I woudln't bet on it being much, like many, BobC has probably has taken quite a hit these last few months.

Yeah... I bet Bob C is really hurting. Poor guy probably can't even feed his family... :rolleyes:

KronoRed
12-29-2008, 03:07 PM
Yeah... I bet Bob C is really hurting. Poor guy probably can't even feed his family... :rolleyes:

Didn't say that :rolleyes: but he's not going to pour money down a drain, nobody will.

Get ready for more Taveras like signings.

Ltlabner
12-29-2008, 03:09 PM
Get ready for more Taveras like signings.

Does that mean the losing will remain stopped?

jesusfan
12-29-2008, 03:10 PM
Didn't say that :rolleyes: but he's not going to pour money down a drain, nobody will.

Get ready for more Taveras like signings.

If Bob C thinks winning and trying to field the best team possible is pouring money down the drain I don't want him around this organization...

KronoRed
12-29-2008, 03:11 PM
Does that mean the losing will remain stopped?

Oh yeah, it's gonna stop, every September :D

wheels
12-29-2008, 03:30 PM
70 wins at most as currently constructed.

They might score 650 runs.

Jpup
12-29-2008, 03:33 PM
With this offense, they may be the worst team in baseball other than the Nationals.

Caveat Emperor
12-29-2008, 04:53 PM
With this offense, they may be the worst team in baseball other than the Nationals.

The Pirates are fairly reliable in finding ways to finish below the Reds every year.

That makes us, at worst, 3rd from the bottom. ;)

Ron Madden
12-29-2008, 08:43 PM
I believe offering David Weathers arbitration was a big mistake.

Aurthur Rhodes is damn near as old as I am.

I don't see any reason for signing Willy Taveras.

We still need a Shortstop and a productive LeftFielder.

If Walt can bring in Nick Swisher, or someone like him, things might look a lil' bit brighter.

Big Klu
12-29-2008, 08:50 PM
I believe offering David Weathers arbitration was a big mistake.

Except that the experts and talking heads on RedsZone told us that offering arbitration to Weathers was a great idea, because he would obviously refuse, and the Reds would get two draft picks. Not offering was considered to be a bad idea, because it meant throwing away the two picks.

As for me, it didn't matter if they offered arbitration to Weathers or not. I can take him or leave him. But I did recognize that there was a very real possibility that he might actually accept their offer.

RedsManRick
12-29-2008, 08:55 PM
It is unfortunate that he accepted, but offering Weathers arbitration was the right decision.

This team is not more talented than last year's team, but it might be better due to the improvement of young players and the loss of a few production anchors.

Ron Madden
12-29-2008, 09:18 PM
Except that the experts and talking heads on RedsZone told us that offering arbitration to Weathers was a great idea, because he would obviously refuse, and the Reds would get two draft picks. Not offering was considered to be a bad idea, because it meant throwing away the two picks.

As for me, it didn't matter if they offered arbitration to Weathers or not. I can take him or leave him. But I did recognize that there was a very real possibility that he might actually accept their offer.


I was against offering Weathers arbitration from the beginning. I was scared to death he would accept.

Caveat Emperor
12-29-2008, 09:33 PM
I was against offering Weathers arbitration from the beginning. I was scared to death he would accept.

Really?

How are you scared to death of a relief pitcher who has posted ERAs of 3.54, 3.59, and 3.25 over the past three seasons being brought back on a 1 year deal?

I mean, seriously -- all David Weathers has done is be the most consistent Reds reliever since 2005. He keeps the ball in the ballpark and throws strikes. Granted, he didn't look as effective last year as he had in the previous few years, but he still delivered better than league-average performance when it was all said and done. And just breaking down the numbers, the difference in Weathers from 2007 to 2008 was about 10 base hits over the course of the season and 4 additional IBBs. Not really worth going alarmist over, IMO. His "stuff" looked about the same velocity wise, and he seemed to stay healthy. Not a bad thing to have at all.

The Reds get that, plus a solid veteran presence in the bullpen, for another year with no long-term commitment required. If this is the year he finally implodes (an implosion that has been predicted for 3 seasons running now, by my count), he can be jettisoned without a second thought.

Hating on a 1 year deal for David Weathers -- especially when he projects to be the 7th inning guy at best -- just makes no sense to me.

Ron Madden
12-29-2008, 09:47 PM
Really?

How are you scared to death of a relief pitcher who has posted ERAs of 3.54, 3.59, and 3.25 over the past three seasons being brought back on a 1 year deal?

I'm afraid Weathers will be awarded too much money for 2009, and I'm afraid Davids luck will finally run out.

REDREAD
12-30-2008, 12:36 AM
It is unfortunate that he accepted, but offering Weathers arbitration was the right decision.
.

It all depends. If you want Weathers back, it's a good idea to offer Weathers arb. Personally, I didn't want to risk bringing Weathers back, but I'm ok with it.

Offering Weathers arb if you didn't want him back, but just wanted to get draft picks (as many were saying) is just foolhardy, given what Weathers is. It was pretty obvious that no team was going to offer him a 2 year deal at his age. It was also pretty obvious that arbitration was going to pay him more than the free market would.

However, given that Walt faced a lot of potential turnover in the bullpen from FA, I can understand why he offered Weathers arb. Weathers probably isn't going to kill us next year, and at least it's only a one year deal. He'll be overpaid, but it probably won't be back breaking.

REDREAD
12-30-2008, 12:41 AM
It's unfortunate that the Reds pretty much wasted Dunn's productive years while he was here and held him so long that his trade value diminished to almost nothing.

I agree that right now, the team is worst than last year due to Dunn's departure. However, I think Walt is doing a good job so far. It was a given that Dunn and Jr weren't coming back and there was nothing in the pipeline to replace them. That was one of Wayne's little timebombs that he left for the next GM.

If the Reds get a LF that is a legit cleanup hitter, they have a pretty good chance of being better next year. The upgrade at catcher is pretty huge. If Dickerson/Tavaras stay healthy, CF is upgraded too. The bullpen may be slightly worse. I think Arroyo, Harang and Ceuto will improve in 2009. So I am optimistic, if Walt can get that LF cleanup hitter.

WVRedsFan
12-30-2008, 02:47 AM
I believe offering David Weathers arbitration was a big mistake.

Aurthur Rhodes is damn near as old as I am.

And slightly younger than me, and that's saying something right there. As for bringing back Weathers? Huge error. Hide and watch.


I don't see any reason for signing Willy Taveras.

Apparently no one does, but I see an improvement over what we had. Not much of an improvement, and not what I expected, but improvement. And that means I don't particularly like the acquisition, and I'll wait and see.


We still need a Shortstop and a productive LeftFielder.

Our only hope is Gonzo comes back, rested and putting up career numbers. If not...well, you know. No one mentions third because Edwin is the chosen one, but his defense is a deterant to winning at times along with his penchant for being a streaky hitter. So far, the left side of the defense is a mess and the offense is non-existent. Not good.


If Walt can bring in Nick Swisher, or someone like him, things might look a lil' bit brighter.

That's what we must hope for, but even the best magicians cannot do things overnight. Walt has time on his side. What happens between now and April will determine what happens to this club.