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nate
12-31-2008, 02:43 PM
OK, you get to play John Fay and answer this (http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3afe0f1ebb-59cc-453d-86db-8b9e116ae21f&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com) question from yesterday's mailbag:


From Mike in Chicago: My question involves our vacant RF position. Let's say the Reds are unable to sign a free agent like Pat Burrell or even Jerry Hairston and trades just don't work out for Jermaine Dye or Xavier Nady. Would the Reds consider taking a risk and making a trade for Andruw Jones if the Dodgers are willing to eat a lot of his contract? I believe Jones needs the cliche of a "change of scenery" and the little league field of GABP could help him. I mean the guy does have five 100 RBI seasons and over 300 career HRs to go along with all his Gold Gloves. If we can get him in a trade at a discount why not take the chance?

Mario-Rijo
12-31-2008, 02:47 PM
Mike, no thanks. Next question!

bucksfan2
12-31-2008, 02:53 PM
Mike, If the Dodgers pay most of his salary I take a shot at him. Can you recover the success that made him one of the great CF's in the game? Its worth a flier to me.

Raisor
12-31-2008, 03:01 PM
Mike, just say "no" to drugs.

remdog
12-31-2008, 03:06 PM
Hitting at GAB is only helpful if you can put the bat on the ball. Watching Jones last year was amazing because he often didn't come close to even fouling a ball off during an AB. He's toast!

Rem

bucksfan2
12-31-2008, 03:09 PM
Hitting at GAB is only helpful if you can put the bat on the ball. Watching Jones last year was amazing because he often didn't come close to even fouling a ball off during an AB. He's toast!

Rem

What happened to him?

Ltlabner
12-31-2008, 03:11 PM
Mike,

Thanks for the question. Do your doctors know you are on the internet unsupervised?

John

SteelSD
12-31-2008, 03:20 PM
I'm not sure anyone can top Fay's actual response, which basically breaks down to:

"Well, aside from the fact that his hitting has tanked, the Dodgers probably won't eat a huge amount of his salary and CF is Willy Taveras' position anyway."

15fan
12-31-2008, 03:42 PM
What happened to him?

About 4-5 years ago, he put on a buuuuuunch of weight. And not in his biceps & quads. It was all gut and butt. He had a serious double chin going on for a while. He'd sweat gravy running down balls in the gaps. At the time, he was still young enough that he could get by in the field based solely on natural ability as well as his rep.

He also adopted the Bret Boone approach at the plate - muscle up and try to smack every pitch 850 feet.

In short - fat & lazy, with little aging sprinkled in, and presto! Andruw Jones 2006-2008.

It was clear that when the Braves let Raffy Furcal walk to LA several years ago, they thought getting him out of the equation would help Andruw Jones get his head right again.

It didn't.

At this point, he's toast IMO.

Jpup
12-31-2008, 03:52 PM
steroids.

Heath
12-31-2008, 04:06 PM
steroids.

Wrong.

He's been in Atlanta. It's gravy and biscuts.

Raisor
12-31-2008, 04:16 PM
Wrong.

He's been in Atlanta. It's gravy and biscuts.


I'm in atlanta.

And yes, I like gravy and biscuts.

camisadelgolf
12-31-2008, 05:42 PM
hello mike. thankyou for teh question. andrew jones has never stealed more than than 20 bases since 1999 so i think his biggest assett his speed is no longer there anymore and gone. taveras stealed over 60 bases last baseball season and it would be stupid to try replace that production. the reds need to address there biggest need which is leftfield. the reds are still in negotiationings with jerry hairston jr who is coming off a high batting average so he is clearly answer to your question. not only but he plays shortstop good and alex gonsales has trouble stay healthy. walt jockety has a relationship with so taguchi so i think his veteran presents make him a interest option if the reds are not possible able to can haul in hairston jr.

-John Fay

klw
12-31-2008, 05:44 PM
In short - fat & lazy, with little aging sprinkled in, and presto! Andruw Jones 2006-2008.
.

http://www.marcresearch.com/blogs/merrill/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/flounder_animal_house_1c.jpg

Degenerate39
12-31-2008, 06:17 PM
OK, you get to play John Fay and answer this (http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3afe0f1ebb-59cc-453d-86db-8b9e116ae21f&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com) question from yesterday's mailbag:

Right feld isn't vacant

_Sir_Charles_
12-31-2008, 06:24 PM
Sorry guys, but none of those answers had nearly enough typos and grammatical errors to be John Fay. :D

GADawg
12-31-2008, 08:52 PM
Sorry Mike....I heard he's lost weight and is approaching game shape but all the weight loss and work outs in the world can't make you quit swinging at the curveball away in the dirt.

bucksfan2
01-02-2009, 09:57 AM
About 4-5 years ago, he put on a buuuuuunch of weight. And not in his biceps & quads. It was all gut and butt. He had a serious double chin going on for a while. He'd sweat gravy running down balls in the gaps. At the time, he was still young enough that he could get by in the field based solely on natural ability as well as his rep.

He also adopted the Bret Boone approach at the plate - muscle up and try to smack every pitch 850 feet.

In short - fat & lazy, with little aging sprinkled in, and presto! Andruw Jones 2006-2008.

It was clear that when the Braves let Raffy Furcal walk to LA several years ago, they thought getting him out of the equation would help Andruw Jones get his head right again.

It didn't.

At this point, he's toast IMO.

Here is what I find intriguing. Everything you said is correctable, except for the aging part. Losing the weight, training better, not swinging for the fences, all can be correct in an off season.

Here is what I find interesting about Jones. He went from a perennial all star and MVP candidate to someone who cant get off the express way. He went from talk about being one of the great CF's in history to someone who is one of the worst players in baseball. I could see steroids as an answer but you would expect a little decline not a unheard of loss of baseball skills. He will be 31 at the start of next season and should be entering the prime of his career. To me something doesn't make sense about Jones decline.

remdog
01-02-2009, 10:04 AM
I don't know why but, watching Jones last year with the Dodgers, he was always late on the pitch and didn't seem to pick up on any breaking balls. It was almost like he didn't actually have the visual accuity for the hand/eye coordination. But, if that were the physical case, I would think the Dodgers would have had that checked out.

As it stands now, this is a guy that wouldn't take on even if the Dodgers paid his full contract. I know that sounds absurd but, IMO, even for free he would simply clogg a roster spot and give the Reds no help at the MLB level.

Rem

15fan
01-02-2009, 11:12 AM
Here is what I find intriguing. Everything you said is correctable, except for the aging part. Losing the weight, training better, not swinging for the fences, all can be correct in an off season.

It's correctable...as long as Jones wants to correct it.

He's shown numerous times that he's not interested. He's going through the motions, cashing his checks, and that's about it. The mental part of the game (both between and outside the lines) was never his strong suit.

People around here still talk about the day that Bobby Cox stopped a game to yank Jones from center field because he was half-assing it. It was meant to serve as a wake up call.

Instead of taking the call, he looked at the caller ID, rolled back over in bed & let the call go to voice mail.

RedLegSuperStar
01-02-2009, 11:49 AM
Aparently the Dodgers and Jones are in contract talks to have a portion of Jones contract deferred to make him more "appealing.".

Krusty
01-03-2009, 12:14 AM
With the Dodgers restructuring the final year of his contract which will result in defered payments, it is likely the outfielder will be traded or released. Just as we saw with Willy Taveras, could Jocketty make a move and hope for a rebound season with Jones in 2009 at a minimum price?

Dodgers, Jones strike deal to part ways
Veteran outfielder will be released or traded before Spring Training
By Ken Gurnick / MLB.com

LOS ANGELES -- Andruw Jones and the Dodgers have reached an agreement to defer much of his remaining salary while virtually assuring he will not be with the club in 2009.
Jones will either be traded or released before the start of Spring Training and perhaps sometime this month, according to an industry source.

The agreement will allow Jones a fresh start elsewhere after a nightmare of a first season and provide the Dodgers with additional payroll flexibility that could be used to re-sign free-agent outfielder Manny Ramirez.

The Major League Baseball Players Association approved the unusual agreement because Jones will receive his entire salary, as well as the possible benefit of free agency should he be released.

Jones is owed about $21.1 million from a back-loaded two-year contract. Instead of paying that total amount this year, the agreement spreads out the Dodgers' payments for as many as six years. The amount deferred could be as much as $12 million.

Before Jones left the club during its 2008 division-title run in September, he told teammates he did not want to return to Los Angeles for the final year of a $36.2 million contract signed in December 2007 and would waive his no-trade protection.

Jones is represented by Scott Boras, who is also the agent for Ramirez. Negotiations between Boras and the Dodgers for Ramirez resumed this week. Ramirez is seeking a four- or five-year deal, while the Dodgers' offer of two years and $45 million plus an option was ignored by Ramirez and withdrawn by the club six weeks ago.

Reports from San Francisco indicate the Giants, benefiting from a partial interest in a regional sports network, either have or will make an offer for Ramirez. The Angels, although they declared themselves out of the Ramirez chase, are rumored to be reconsidering.


There appeared to be little interest for Ramirez during the past two months. But since Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees, Ramirez has become the most potent consolation prize to teams Teixeira spurned, the Angels among them.

The departures of 16 free agents have allowed the Dodgers to shed nearly $50 million from last year's payroll to this point, not counting whatever the club defers from Jones' salary.

Highlifeman21
01-03-2009, 12:19 AM
Stay far far away from Andruw Jones.

His OPS has impressively dropped from .894 in 2006 to .505 last year (where his OBP was also higher than his SLG).

Say no to AJ.

TRF
01-03-2009, 12:24 AM
I say yes. IF it costs nothing over 1 mil And it's for 1 year only. Cincinnati has the perfect park for him to try and resurrect his career. If he's abysmal at the end of ST, simply waive him.

Low risk/high reward. Jones could be similar to taking a chance on Ron Gant/Eric Davis/Greg Vaughn. It's the very best kind of dumpster diving because the contract could be minimal AND he had actual talent. Unlike Eric Milton.

jesusfan
01-03-2009, 12:26 AM
Depends on the price and his health/weight...

RedEye
01-03-2009, 12:26 AM
I feel like I have déja vu all over again. Weren't we just discussing this somewhere else?

And BTW, I hope WJ wants no part of Jones.

MartyFan
01-03-2009, 12:30 AM
I am not for or against,I was asking in the other thread...with his contract being restructured and the Dodgers eating most of it, it seems like a worthwhile risk.

corkedbat
01-03-2009, 12:30 AM
I'd be afraid that Jones has gone one (maybe two or three) too many times around the bowl.

alexad
01-03-2009, 12:58 AM
Jone is still considered young. I do not think you can fall off the wagon like he did and not get up and go after it again. I would at least see what the interest is in him.

Ron Madden
01-03-2009, 01:10 AM
I say no.

Let some other club take a chance.


:)

TRF
01-03-2009, 01:17 AM
I say no.

Let some other club take a chance.


:)

Why? The Reds took a chance on Hamilton. They've taken chances on guys like Davis, Gant, Ochoa over the years. Taking a chance on a guy with plus talent, and yes, Jones has plus talent IF the cost and years isn't too much is a good risk. All it costs them is some time during ST. Maybe a million dollars. His agent, SATAN, surely knows he isn't getting a big payday, so he's playing for his next contract.

Could be win/win.

Ron Madden
01-03-2009, 01:23 AM
It's just a chance that I wouldn't take.

Haven't we heard for years now that corner outfielders are a dime a dozen?

I think there are still plenty of better options out there,

Krusty
01-03-2009, 01:24 AM
I would offer Jones a one year deal with an option for a second year.

Jones has something to prove.....his baseball career. Odds are if he doesn't come in shape and show a commitment then he can go watch Barry Bonds in his court trial come this summer. The Reds need to load the contract with incentives. And with the Dodgers paying for his 2009 contract in defered payments, the Reds assume little monetary risk.

Another classic case of buying something at a rock bottom price. There is nowhere for Andrew Jones to go but up.

Krusty
01-03-2009, 01:27 AM
It's just a chance that I wouldn't take.

Haven't we heard for years now that corner outfielders are a dime a dozen?

I think there are still plenty of better options out there,

Well, unless we can get Jermaine Dye or Delmon Young from the Twins, I don't see to much out there in regards to a righthand hitter for the middle of the order. And since all we would be giving up is cash, and we won't have to break the bank for it, I think it is worth the risk especially when you don't have to trade any prospects.

remdog
01-03-2009, 01:46 AM
This was already being discussed as recently as this morning here: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1788885#post1788885

If you want to read all the reasons this is a bad idea, click the above link and save yourself some time.

Rem

max venable
01-03-2009, 01:53 AM
what would be wrong with a minor league deal and an invite to ST?

kaldaniels
01-03-2009, 02:02 AM
This was already being discussed as recently as this morning here: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1788885#post1788885

If you want to read all the reasons this is a bad idea, click the above link and save yourself some time.

Rem

If it can be worked out economically that the Reds can get him into ST and waive him if need be with out hurting payroll significantally...do it yesterday. If that is not possible...pass.

Raisor
01-03-2009, 09:29 AM
what would be wrong with a minor league deal and an invite to ST?

same thing that was wrong with giving CP a minor league deal and an invite to ST.

Too much chance he'd "make" the team.

Then stink.

05-922
06-894
07-724
08-505



Stink very badly.

GAC
01-03-2009, 09:33 AM
Someone has to take Dunn's place at the clubhouse buffet. ;)

mth123
01-03-2009, 09:41 AM
same thing that was wrong with giving CP a minor league deal and an invite to ST.

Too much chance he'd "make" the team.

Then stink.

Stink very badly.


I get the point, but it may depend on the spirit of the deal.

If its like Patterson which was a "we need to create a roster spot so lets sign a minor league deal" with a wink and an assurance that he'll break with the team, then no. I don't want him.

If its a true minor league deal of the "come in and show us you have yourself together and we'll consider it" variety, then I'd be all for it.

RedLegSuperStar
01-03-2009, 10:19 AM
I would offer Jones a one year deal with an option for a second year.

Jones has something to prove.....his baseball career. Odds are if he doesn't come in shape and show a commitment then he can go watch Barry Bonds in his court trial come this summer. The Reds need to load the contract with incentives. And with the Dodgers paying for his 2009 contract in defered payments, the Reds assume little monetary risk.

Another classic case of buying something at a rock bottom price. There is nowhere for Andrew Jones to go but up.

i agree he has something to prove. buy low and hope for Andruw to rebound. i'd offer something along the lines of a one year deal with incentives and an option for 2010. the incentives would include games played, allstar elect, mvp votes, gold glove award, plate appearances, etc.

Krusty
01-03-2009, 11:10 AM
According to the LA Times, the Dodgers will be responsible for $5 million of Jones' salary next season. Odds are that teams will wait till he is released before making an offer. Does this sound familar? Like the interest in Willy Taveras?

The Reds wait till Jones is released. Knowing that the Dodgers are footing the bill for $5 million, they could offer a two year deal. 2.5 million for the first year, 5 million for the second year. With Jones getting deferred payments, he will get his money from the Dodgers. The money he gets from the Reds is chump change as he trys to resurrect his career. For the Reds, it is a low risk deal similar to the Taveras one. Who plays CF and who plays LF would be determined in spring training. But you have to figure the outfield defense would be better especially if Jones comes to camp in shape.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/

bucksfan2
01-03-2009, 11:33 AM
same thing that was wrong with giving CP a minor league deal and an invite to ST.

Too much chance he'd "make" the team.

Then stink.

05-922
06-894
07-724
08-505



Stink very badly.


Yea a CF who ops 922 and 894 at a point in his career entering the prime of his career. My issues with Jones are that his decline can't be linked to anything concrete. He was thought as of one of the greates and and had a 400 point drop in his ops in the matter of two years. Pitchers loved having him in CF because he played a shallow CF and could go get a ball hit over his head. He was once thought as of one of the great CF's in the game and he is entereing the prime of his career at 31.

Jones realizes that he needs a bounce back year. His agent more importantly knows that he needs a bounce back year. If he continues his decline he will more than likely go down as a huge wasted talent. If he rebounds then he is in line for one more big time contract. He is not a guy who you are trying to catch lightening in a bottle with, rather a guy you are trying to restore to his previous ability. If Jones can revert to his 05 numbers then he is looking at a multi year deal around $15M/year. He may just be worth the risk that the Reds will benefit from his turn around.

nate
01-03-2009, 11:50 AM
According to the LA Times, the Dodgers will be responsible for $5 million of Jones' salary next season. Odds are that teams will wait till he is released before making an offer. Does this sound familar? Like the interest in Willy Taveras?

The Reds wait till Jones is released. Knowing that the Dodgers are footing the bill for $5 million, they could offer a two year deal. 2.5 million for the first year, 5 million for the second year. With Jones getting deferred payments, he will get his money from the Dodgers. The money he gets from the Reds is chump change as he trys to resurrect his career. For the Reds, it is a low risk deal similar to the Taveras one. Who plays CF and who plays LF would be determined in spring training. But you have to figure the outfield defense would be better especially if Jones comes to camp in shape.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/

About the most I'd pay for Jones is a minor league deal with incentives where he _could_ earn that much _if_ he performs. I don't want the Reds to shoulder the cost of his "ifs." If they're going to invest in "ifs," invest in Rocco Baldelli.

Raisor
01-03-2009, 11:52 AM
Reds already have too many "ifs" as it is.

nate
01-03-2009, 11:56 AM
Reds already have too many "ifs" as it is.

Oh, I don't think Willie Taveras is an "if" at all!

:cool:

Highlifeman21
01-03-2009, 12:11 PM
I would offer Jones a one year deal with an option for a second year.

Jones has something to prove.....his baseball career. Odds are if he doesn't come in shape and show a commitment then he can go watch Barry Bonds in his court trial come this summer. The Reds need to load the contract with incentives. And with the Dodgers paying for his 2009 contract in defered payments, the Reds assume little monetary risk.

Another classic case of buying something at a rock bottom price. There is nowhere for Andrew Jones to go but up.

Guaranteed money to Jones?

Pass.

Highlifeman21
01-03-2009, 12:17 PM
According to the LA Times, the Dodgers will be responsible for $5 million of Jones' salary next season. Odds are that teams will wait till he is released before making an offer. Does this sound familar? Like the interest in Willy Taveras?

The Reds wait till Jones is released. Knowing that the Dodgers are footing the bill for $5 million, they could offer a two year deal. 2.5 million for the first year, 5 million for the second year. With Jones getting deferred payments, he will get his money from the Dodgers. The money he gets from the Reds is chump change as he trys to resurrect his career. For the Reds, it is a low risk deal similar to the Taveras one. Who plays CF and who plays LF would be determined in spring training. But you have to figure the outfield defense would be better especially if Jones comes to camp in shape.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/

No really, why on Earth would you give Andruw Jones guaranteed money to play baseball, when he's proved over the last two years he can't play baseball?

remdog
01-03-2009, 12:41 PM
Personally, I'd rather see one of the kids from the minors get extra playing time in ST and maybe make the Opening Day roster. However, if you wait for Jones to be released and try to sign him the Reds have to make sure that they aren't bidding against themselves like they did with Patterson.

Rem

jesusfan
01-03-2009, 02:12 PM
Looks like The Jock may have some interest...

Sources: Dodgers still look to move Jones

By Buster Olney
ESPN.com


Updated: January 3, 2009, 12:02 PM ET

A month ago, Andruw Jones was considered untradeable within the baseball industry. Now that his contract has been restructured, to make him more affordable to any interested suitors, the Dodgers intend to weigh his market value again, according to baseball sources.

One way or another, the 10-time Gold Glove winner -- who is still just 32 years old -- will be moving on to another team before the start of the 2009 season, the sources say.

Jones signed a two-year, $36.2 million deal with the Dodgers before last season but struggled from the outset, and in 209 at-bats he hit just .158 with three homers, 33 hits and 76 strikeouts. By season's end, he was away from the team.

The Dodgers spoke with a number of teams early in this offseason to gauge possible trade interest and found almost none except in cases in which other teams were looking to move their own bad contracts -- such as the Mets, with second baseman Luis Castillo.

Under the original terms of his contract, Jones earned $9 million in 2008 and was set to make $15 million in 2009. He also had been set to receive $2.1 million in a signing bonus in 2009 and another $5 million in 2010.

Jones indicated to the Dodgers he wanted to be traded and asked them how he could facilitate that possibility, sources say. Under the terms of the restructured deal, Jones will be paid the $15 million in salary over the next six seasons with no interest, sources say.

The deal will save the Dodgers about $12 million in salary for 2009; according to the Los Angeles Times, Jones will earn about $5 million in 2009.

MLB.com reported the Players Association has approved the deal, because Jones will not give back salary and because he is gaining something he wants and needs -- an exit from L.A.

Even at that greatly reduced rate the Dodgers may find it difficult to trade Jones in a winter in which the prices on outfielders have dropped markedly. Other teams have tried trading outfielders -- such as the Royals, with Jose Guillen -- without success.

The Braves, Reds and Mets expressed varying degrees of interest in making a deal for Jones this offseason, and the Dodgers are expected to talk again with those clubs.

The Mets' interest all along was predicated on the Dodgers absorbing Castillo's contract, and on Saturday morning a source with knowledge of the trade talks said even with Jones's salary reduced for 2009, the team is virtually certain to pass on a deal for the outfielder.

Jones is playing in winter ball, and scouts say that he has continued to struggle. There are many questions among talent evaluators about Jones's physical condition, and whether he will ever be in the kind of shape required for him to be a strong defensive outfielder again.

Jones has always had difficulty coping with breaking pitches low and away but never moreso than last season, when his strikeout problem became acute and greatly affected his confidence, some scouts believe.

If the Dodgers can't find a trade partner, they are likely to soon release Jones -- a borderline Hall of Fame player with 371 career homers -- and he would be free to sign elsewhere for the $400,000 minimum.

nate
01-03-2009, 02:14 PM
Uh oh (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/dodgers-working.html):


SATURDAY, 11:23am: Buster Olney's sources tell him that Jones will receive the $15MM he's owed in 2009 over the next six seasons, without interest. Apparently the Dodgers are likely to call the Braves, Reds and Mets about potential trades. One source familiar with the discussions said it's virtually certain that the Mets won't be interested

Spitball
01-03-2009, 02:21 PM
If the Dodgers can't find a trade partner, they are likely to soon release Jones -- a borderline Hall of Fame player with 371 career homers -- and he would be free to sign elsewhere for the $400,000 minimum.

Let's hope the Reds are very, very patient...too patient.

Jpup
01-03-2009, 02:28 PM
This would be a Jocketty move. I'll also take anything Buster Olney says with a grain of salt. I'd rather have him than Willy Taveras considering the money they gave Taveras.

RedEye
01-03-2009, 02:34 PM
Jones, Taveras, and Bruce!

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Cincinnati Reds outfield!

Blech.

Jpup
01-03-2009, 02:38 PM
All those Ks are going to drive Reds fans crazy. Poor Marty.

Blimpie
01-03-2009, 02:38 PM
Gulp...Taveras might actually have a higher OBP than Jones.

fearofpopvol1
01-03-2009, 02:47 PM
If the Dodgers picked up a bunch of salary and didn't demand too much in return, it may not be an awful idea. I think Jones would have a pretty good year in GAB. At least he would have a good shot of having a better year than last.

jesusfan
01-03-2009, 02:58 PM
If the Dodgers picked up a bunch of salary and didn't demand too much in return, it may not be an awful idea. I think Jones would have a pretty good year in GAB. At least he would have a good shot of having a better year than last.

I hope he would have a better year than a .158 AVG, .256 OBP and .249 SLG... And 76 K's in 209 AB's... I seriously think some of us Reds-Zoners could do better than that...

corkedbat
01-03-2009, 03:05 PM
After signing Taveras there are no depths to my expectations for Jiocketty. If it were up to me I'd say no way - even at the discount, but if I'm guessing at what this front office will do - I'll say he's a Red by this time next week.

If they do do it, I hope they make the Dodgers eat the deferred money and throw in Hu before we make the deal. I don't give up any useable talent either - maybe Weathers & Hopper. And I still add a bat for LF with Taveras, Dickerson & Jones fighting it out for CF and the 4th & 5th spots.

cincyinco
01-03-2009, 03:14 PM
Wouldn't it be a dream come true if Walt woke up, realized his mistake in Willy T's contract.. And then somehow parlayed that into Andrew Jones? Trade 2 bad years for 1 that has at least some semblance of upside? Ah well.

RedEye
01-03-2009, 03:15 PM
Willy Taveras and David Weathers for Andruw Jones and cash?

hebroncougar
01-03-2009, 03:16 PM
Interesting idea on buying low on Jones. He was god awful last season. I wonder if the team that trades for him will only be on the hook for the 2009 salary, and not the deferred payments (I'm assuming). I don't think there is any question Baker would push for it, and I think Jocketty would give it serious consideration. Personally, I might take the shot, given the alternatives we have.

corkedbat
01-03-2009, 03:19 PM
Willy Taveras and David Weathers for Andruw Jones and cash?


Don't forget, Hu @ SS is part of the price of taking Jones off their hands (they have Furcal). :)

Falls City Beer
01-03-2009, 03:20 PM
Jones has been godawful for two consecutive seasons.

corkedbat
01-03-2009, 03:23 PM
Interesting idea on buying low on Jones. He was god awful last season. I wonder if the team that trades for him will only be on the hook for the 2009 salary, and not the deferred payments (I'm assuming). I don't think there is any question Baker would push for it, and I think Jocketty would give it serious consideration. Personally, I might take the shot, given the alternatives we have.

I'd like to know what kind of offseason conditioning he's done before any deal too. If he's lost weight and shows signs of being embarrassed about his performance I might be more open to a deal. If he's still a tub of goo though - just walk away no matter what.

KronoRed
01-03-2009, 03:24 PM
Jones has been godawful for two consecutive seasons.

Yep, there is a trend here.

Avoid it.

Big Klu
01-03-2009, 03:26 PM
Don't forget, Hu @ SS is part of the price of taking Jones off their hands (they have Furcal). :)

Why would we want Hu when we already have the domestic model, Paul Janish?

Kc61
01-03-2009, 03:30 PM
I've been waiting patiently for the Reds to make one major move this off-season. As I've said many times, with the departure of Dunn and Griffey, the Reds really owe the fans one big acquisition -- like a Jermaine Dye -- even if it's a short-term stop gap acquisition. Something in the mode of Greg Vaughn, Kevin Mitchell, Dave Parker, Ron Gant.

The relatively small moves made so far are ok as long as sometime soon the Reds add a player who truly upgrades the club.

After his performance the last two seasons, that move is not Andruw Jones.

The only acceptable Jones signing would be for Louisville with the possibility of a major league call-up if he proves himself to be the old Andruw. And this should not prevent another move for a bona fide hitter.

camisadelgolf
01-03-2009, 03:32 PM
Since we're talking about it, what if an Andruw Jones trade involved doing an Edwin Encarnacion-for-Blake DeWitt exchange? Would anyone be interested in that?

membengal
01-03-2009, 03:32 PM
I don't think those of you who think this might be a decent flier realize just how awful Andruw Jones has become. Really, really, awful. Beyond awful. For those of us who took EI last year, and perused the occasional Dodgers game, Jones' bat-speed last year was about 1000X slower then Jr.'s. Seriously, he's awful.

gm
01-03-2009, 03:35 PM
Hasn't Andruw Jones already hurt the Reds enough, during his years with the Braves?

membengal
01-03-2009, 03:39 PM
The only way this would make even a smidgen of sense is if a Reds scout or someone had seen/met/talked with Jones and had an idea that whatever has caused him to grow fat, lazy and slow is in the past and he shows up to a camp 35 pounds lighter and re-dedicated to his craft. Because he didn't put up those putrid numbers last year by accident, it was the result of years of neglect of his body and his game.

And, no, "hope" that he is changed would not be enough of a reason to bring him in...

remdog
01-03-2009, 04:03 PM
This topic has been discussed for the last four days here: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=73369

Rem

jesusfan
01-03-2009, 04:05 PM
This topic has been discussed for the last four days here: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=73369

Rem

That was speculation... This was an actual article that said the Dodgers were going to call 3 clubs... Braves, Reds and Mets... Much more credible than just a question from a guy named Mike...

TRF
01-03-2009, 04:22 PM
same thing that was wrong with giving CP a minor league deal and an invite to ST.

Too much chance he'd "make" the team.

Then stink.

05-922
06-894
07-724
08-505



Stink very badly.

There is a slight difference. Jones was actually good, great even. If you can catch lightning in a bottle AND it doesn't cost more than a mil, I'd go for it.

remdog
01-03-2009, 04:22 PM
That was speculation... This was an actual article that said the Dodgers were going to call 3 clubs... Braves, Reds and Mets... Much more credible than just a question from a guy named Mike...

I will acknowledge that the title of the thread I referenced is unlikely to lead people to he 'AJ' topic. However, many of them got there just fine and the discussion pre-dates your post by about four days. And, with relevant comments that go directly to heart of the discussin. Why not join it instead of making a redundant thread?

As for 'actual articles', I think Krusty's posting of the LA Times article qualifies....at least as much as Buster (rumblin', stumblin', fumblin') Olney's happazzard speculation. Much more credible than a guy named 'Buster'. :)

Rem

chicoruiz
01-03-2009, 04:27 PM
I'd like to know what kind of offseason conditioning he's done before any deal too. If he's lost weight and shows signs of being embarrassed about his performance I might be more open to a deal. If he's still a tub of goo though - just walk away no matter what.

Trouble is, he got that wake-up call a year ago and chose not to answer it. Instead he got even worse, which shows he's either unwilling or unable to make the necessary corrections. Shun him...

jesusfan
01-03-2009, 04:29 PM
I will acknowledge that the title of the thread I referenced is unlikely to lead people to he 'AJ' topic. However, many of them got there just fine and the discussion pre-dates your post by about four days. And, with relevant comments that go directly to heart of the discussin. Why not join it instead of making a redundant thread?

As for 'actual articles', I think Krusty's posting of the LA Times article qualifies....at least as much as Buster (rumblin', stumblin', fumblin') Olney's happazzard speculation. Much more credible than a guy named 'Buster'. :)

Rem

I really don't feel like arguing over something like this... The article said the Dodgers were going to call the Reds and I posted it...

reds44
01-03-2009, 04:32 PM
While it's not the popular opinon on here, I wouldn't mind it. Granted his last two years have been historically bad, but he has a lot of talent and there's very few players who I would not take a chance on with a one year deal.

remdog
01-03-2009, 04:36 PM
There is a slight difference. Jones was actually good, great even. If you can catch lightning in a bottle AND it doesn't cost more than a mil, I'd go for it.

Are you talking strictly a minor league contract and an invite to ST or are you willing to guarantee a major league contract?

To me, the only way that AJ makes sense is if you think you can contend for the playoffs this year but you just need 'one little miracle' to get you over the hump. Believe me, after watchng AJ out here with the Dodgers last year it would take a major miracle for him to be that guy. It's not out of the realm of possibility but it would be like drawing to an inside straight 10 times in a row. The guy simply doesn't have anything left in the tank and I'd rather see someone like Dorn or Stubbs or Heissey get the opportunity to play their way onto the big team this spring and save the $1M.

JMO, of course.

Rem

Caveat Emperor
01-03-2009, 04:50 PM
I haven't really followed what happened to Jones when he went west -- but is there some theory on why he tanked the last two years?

It's hard to fathom a guy falling off the cart so badly at age 31, hardly over the hill for most players, after so many productive seasons.

RedsManRick
01-03-2009, 05:09 PM
I know Jones' bat speed is horrible. I've seen him stepping in the bucket routinely. Mechanically he's an absolute mess. I don't think there's any disagreement about that.

But does anybody have an explanation about why? How did he just fall off a cliff like that? Did he just have a fragile skill set that unraveled at a certain tipping point? Did his eyes go? I just can't remember seeing a guy so talented just completely lose the ability to square up a ball at age 30. I'd love to see a good explanation of what, physically or mentally, has happened to him.

dsmith421
01-03-2009, 05:10 PM
I haven't really followed what happened to Jones when he went west -- but is there some theory on why he tanked the last two years?

Pure speculation, but (a) Jones has put on a ton of weight since 2005 and (b) Jones has been playing everyday baseball for a lot longer than the typical MLBer, perhaps he is showing his miles earlier than you would expect (we had some experience with a similar guy).

Raisor
01-03-2009, 05:15 PM
2006-2008

Willy T 71.48 RC per 600 PA
A Jones 74.54 RC per 600 PA

Caveat Emperor
01-03-2009, 05:21 PM
I got this from Texasdave over in the Sun Deck -- and it's a pretty interesting little read on Andruw Jones from an LA perspective:

http://www.sportshubla.com/2008/05/13/the-rapid-decline-of-andruw-jones/

remdog
01-03-2009, 05:32 PM
Like many Latin/Caribbean players, do we actually know AJ's correct age?

As a side note, isn't AJ from Cauracao? I think I read/heard somewhere that he's the only MLB player ever from that island.

Rem

Highlifeman21
01-03-2009, 05:39 PM
Jones has been godawful for two consecutive seasons.

Quoted for severe understatement.

jesusfan
01-03-2009, 05:52 PM
Like many Latin/Caribbean players, do we actually know AJ's correct age?

As a side note, isn't AJ from Cauracao? I think I read/heard somewhere that he's the only MLB player ever from that island.

Rem

I've had that thought too...

Veteran Randall Simon, Yurendell De Caster from the Pirates and Shairon Martis from the Nationals are also from Curacao... Below is a link of a list, total of 7 players ever... Clearly Jones the most popular.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/birthplace.php?loc=Curacao

Ravenlord
01-03-2009, 05:52 PM
As a side note, isn't AJ from Cauracao? I think I read/heard somewhere that he's the only MLB player ever from that island.
Randall Simon is also from Curacao. Sidney Ponson is from nearby Aruba, and if i remember correctly, Curacao and Aruba are both still Dutch holdings.

remdog
01-03-2009, 05:56 PM
Randall Simon is also from Curacao. Sidney Ponson is from nearby Aruba, and if i remember correctly, Curacao and Aruba are both still Dutch holdings.

Well! That explains it! Just try running to first base in wooden shoes.! :lol:

Rem

Blitz Dorsey
01-03-2009, 05:58 PM
He also adopted the Bret Boone approach at the plate - muscle up and try to smack every pitch 850 feet.

So, Jones was a 'roid head too, huh?

osuceltic
01-03-2009, 06:18 PM
Again, everyone wants to buy low in theory, but when the opportunity presents itself, we get scared.

If you'ge getting him cheap, why not take a shot? If he's toast, what have you lost? If he actually bounces back (unlikely, but IF ... ) you solve all kinds of problems.

Seriously ... what's the risk? Are we terrified he'll take at-bats away from Norris Hopper?

RedsManRick
01-03-2009, 06:22 PM
Again, everyone wants to buy low in theory, but when the opportunity presents itself, we get scared.

If you'ge getting him cheap, why not take a shot? If he's toast, what have you lost? If he actually bounces back (unlikely, but IF ... ) you solve all kinds of problems.

Seriously ... what's the risk? Are we terrified he'll take at-bats away from Norris Hopper?

Some people prefer the devil they know.

RedsManRick
01-03-2009, 06:26 PM
Fay's latest suggests Jones isn't a fit. Odd that he cites his cratering OPS. I guess if you put up a crappy OPS every year, it's not as much of a problem.



Yes, I've seen the reports that Andruw Jones is moving on from the Dodgers and will likely end up playing next season for the $400,000 minimum. ESPN'S Buster Olney reported that the Reds were among the clubs that had some interest in the Jones earlier, and it serves to reason the Dodgers will probably contact the Reds again.

I still don't see Jones in a Reds uniform -- even if he pays them $400,000.

The reasons:

--The Reds signed Willy Taveras to play center. Jones is a center fielder.

--Jones is only going to want to come to a club where he's going to start. The Reds would be silly to make that promise. He was very unhappy on the bench at the end of last year.

--His OPS has gone from .922 to .894 to .724 to .505 over the last four years. He's only 32 but some guys lose it as earlier ages.

The Reds have made it pretty clear that they're going younger. Jones would be a stopgap, taking playing time from a younger player. If Jim Bowden were still GM, I'd think there'd be a slight chance of the Jones ending up here. With Walt Jocketty in the GM chair, I don't see it happening.

And bases on the comments about the Jones question, a couple of days ago, signing him would thoroughly tick off the fans.

mth123
01-03-2009, 06:26 PM
Again, everyone wants to buy low in theory, but when the opportunity presents itself, we get scared.

If you'ge getting him cheap, why not take a shot? If he's toast, what have you lost? If he actually bounces back (unlikely, but IF ... ) you solve all kinds of problems.

Seriously ... what's the risk? Are we terrified he'll take at-bats away from Norris Hopper?

I think the risk that people are concerned about is that the Reds acquire Jones and consider him a solution instead of a flier that they shouldn't count on. If Bringing Jones in is purely a speculative move and doesn't stop the reds from pursuing other solutions, then I'd take a shot. Heck I'd even pay a couple million of that financial obligation if it gets Hu as part of the deal.

remdog
01-03-2009, 06:27 PM
Again, everyone wants to buy low in theory, but when the opportunity presents itself, we get scared.

If you'ge getting him cheap, why not take a shot? If he's toast, what have you lost? If he actually bounces back (unlikely, but IF ... ) you solve all kinds of problems.

Seriously ... what's the risk? Are we terrified he'll take at-bats away from Norris Hopper?

Have you actully seen AJ over the last year or two? This guy is off the charts bad! AJ won't take away AB's from Norris Hopper---he isn't good enough to do that. What he will do is steal time from players like Dorn, Heissey, Stubbs that would benefit from more playing time in ST with one of them having an outside chance to make the big league roster this year and improving the team.

Improving the team, even in the short term, is something that Jones can't do.

Rem

Ron Madden
01-03-2009, 06:41 PM
We keep hearing that Walt has a Plan.

I hope and pray Andruw Jones is not included in that plan.

camisadelgolf
01-03-2009, 06:57 PM
The Reds actually have a couple prospects from Netherlands-Antilles. Mariekson Gregorius is a very-young, light-hitting shortstop who was born in the Netherlands but grew up in Netherlands-Antilles. There's also the recently-signed Juan Carlos Sulbaran who is getting a lot of hype after receiving a $500,000 signing bonus; he has been in the States the past few years, though. Alex Smit, formerly on the Reds' 40-man roster, is also from the Netherlands.

jojo
01-03-2009, 07:13 PM
To me, "buy low" means there is a compelling reason to expect much better production (i.e. a player has significantly underperformed his true skill level for whatever reason).

So if Jones is a buy low guy, what is his true skill level (i.e. the level of performance the Reds should expect from him)?

Marcels sees him as putting up a wOBA=.314 (which stinks) during '09. That would make his bat -9 runs worse than a major league average bat over 600 PAs.

The next issues would be answering what position would he play and what should be expected from his defense? Jones' defense declined over the last 2 years and he's at the age where it would be expected to keep doing so. CHONE projects him as a +1 defender in CF or a +8 defender at a corner in '09 (if that seems low-CHONE isn't destiny-adjust accordingly, but let us know your argument for doing so!). So depending upon the position he'd play, his value could change.

If he's a CFer, then his -9 bat would get added to +1 runs for his defense and +2.5 runs to adjust for position. Then he'd get roughly 20 runs to make up the difference between an average bat and a replacement level one (remember his offense was calculated relative to league average). So as a centerfielder, his true skill level would be estimated to be that of roughly a 1.5 win player (-9+1+2.5+20). In other words, he'd be a below average player but the market would pay him $5-6M/yr (pretty much what the Dodgers are rumored to be negotiating-major league FO's actually do employ stat-drooling geeks who work out of their mothers' basements! :cool:).

As a corner outfielder however, he'd be a -9 bat (remember it's relative to major league average not position average) but a +8 defender. However, he would get dinged -7.5 runs by adjusting for his positional worth. Then he gets +20 runs for the replacement level adjustment. So in the corner he'd be roughly a 1.2 win player (-9+8-7.5+20).

Basically, if LA gets his salary down to $5M, there's a reason to believe that he'd at least be worth his contract on the open market. On paper he'd kind of look like a more expensive Taveras without the steals.

The Dodgers are apparently pricing him at his true skill level while trying to paint him as an upside guy. Technically, there is some reason to believe Jones could produce better in '09 than the abomination that was his '08 season, but I don't see him as a "buy low" guy in the sense that most would use the term. Rather, I see him as a risk with no real upside to bank upon other than hoping GABP gives him a boost that Marcels doesn't consider.

That said, as someone suggested earlier, i'd trade for him in a minute if it meant Hu was thrown in too.

_Sir_Charles_
01-03-2009, 07:21 PM
You know, when I first saw this I though "No, no and Hell no"...but upon further reflextion, I'm not sure if it's such a bad idea. If the contract is structured with an emphasis put heavily on incentives (health, ab's, etc) then this might just be the kick in the tail he obviously needs. He's been horrible for 2 years, I don't think anybody would dispute that. But he's also been very out of shape for 2 years too. Put that as a condition in the contract and I think he'd be worth a risk. He's proven, over a LONG stretch, that he can contribute in a big way...so with the right contract, I'm game.

nate
01-03-2009, 07:22 PM
That said, as someone suggested earlier, i'd trade for him in a minute if it meant Hu was thrown in too.

Excellent post.

What do you think would be a realistic trade scenario?

Raisor
01-03-2009, 07:26 PM
Again, everyone wants to buy low in theory, but when the opportunity presents itself, we get scared.



I think the Reds have done enough "buying low".

It's time to either sell high or buy high.

One of Abreu, Burrell, or Dunn has to be a Red or they need to flush the team.

Blitz Dorsey
01-03-2009, 07:26 PM
Again, everyone wants to buy low in theory, but when the opportunity presents itself, we get scared.

If you'ge getting him cheap, why not take a shot? If he's toast, what have you lost? If he actually bounces back (unlikely, but IF ... ) you solve all kinds of problems.

Seriously ... what's the risk? Are we terrified he'll take at-bats away from Norris Hopper?

Well, it depends on how you define "buying low." If the Reds could sign Jones for 1-year at $1 million, I'm down. But he would never accept that. He has plenty of money. He'll be getting $16 million next season even if he doesn't sign with a team (the amount the Dodgers owe him on the final year of the deal). I could see him going back to the islands and getting even fatter and just retiring. Maybe start the first "Washed Up Baseball Players Slow-Pitch Softball League" in the Caribbean??? I bet he would rack up the HRs.

jojo
01-03-2009, 07:41 PM
Excellent post.

What do you think would be a realistic trade scenario?

I'm not sure but I doubt the Reds would have to give up something they'd truly miss. The Dodgers seem intent upon ridding themselves of Jones-that part is pretty easy. Concerning Hu, I'm not sure how many suitors they've had for him but the resigning of Furcal seems to suggest they'd consider trading him but he's probably the harder part.

Not alot of insight-I know.

RedLegSuperStar
01-03-2009, 07:42 PM
Based on Fay reasoning I know its his opinion and not the organizations.. obviously because the Reds overlooked the in ability to get on base with the signing of Taveras (who I like and accept the signing). I see the "red flags" so to speak with Andruw Jones coming to Cincinnati.. but I like Krusty's anology the we took risks with Hamilton and others. Fay also mentions Jones age of 32 and that the team is looking to go young. Jones is a stop gap in my opinion and and is only 32.. Jermaine Dye is 35 right and the Reds had interest in him. Jones is a Gold Glove CFer.. but at this point he just wants to play.. so don't think for a second he wouldn't take the oppertunity to play LF. If I'm the Reds I take the gamble..

Raisor
01-03-2009, 07:54 PM
C R. Hernandez .308
1B J. Votto .368
2B B.Phillips .312
3B E.Encarnacion .340
SS J.Keppinger .310
LF A. Jones .256
CF W. Taveras .308
RF J.Bruce .314

Those are the 2008 OBP for the likely 2009 starters for the Reds (assuming Jones is signed).

Even if Jones somehow returns to his 2006 form, that lineup isn't scoring 750 runs or even coming close.

nate
01-03-2009, 07:57 PM
C R. Hernandez .308
1B J. Votto .368
2B B.Phillips .312
3B E.Encarnacion .340
SS J.Keppinger .310
LF A. Jones .256
CF W. Taveras .308
RF J.Bruce .314

Those are the 2008 OBP for the likely 2009 starters for the Reds (assuming Jones is signed).

Even if Jones somehow returns to his 2006 form, that lineup isn't scoring 750 runs or even coming close.

Just think of all the two hour games!

15fan
01-03-2009, 08:27 PM
No on Andruw Jones.

I repeat: No.

Take it from the posters who've called the ATL home during Jones' career - he's through. Finished. Done.

camisadelgolf
01-03-2009, 08:29 PM
C R. Hernandez .308
1B J. Votto .368
2B B.Phillips .312
3B E.Encarnacion .340
SS J.Keppinger .310
LF A. Jones .256
CF W. Taveras .308
RF J.Bruce .314

Those are the 2008 OBP for the likely 2009 starters for the Reds (assuming Jones is signed).

Even if Jones somehow returns to his 2006 form, that lineup isn't scoring 750 runs or even coming close.

True, 2008 was bad for a lot of those guys, but I would expect an increase in OBP from all of them with the exception of Votto. I think these are reasonable projections for those guys:
C Hernandez .323
1B Votto .365
2B Phillips .325
3B Encarnacion .351
SS Keppinger .334
LF Jones .317
CF Taveras .334
RF Bruce .336
C Hanigan .345
2B Richar .316
3B Rosales .332
SS Gonzalez .313
SS Janish .321
OF Dickerson .367
OF Hopper .349
OF Nix .293

I'm not arguing with your point--the Reds look like they're going to have trouble scoring runs--but I don't think the picture is dark as you paint it. I think Jerry Hairston was the only hitter playing above his head, and the rest of the guys should continue to improve, which tells me that the Reds shouldn't have such a big problem equaling their 2008 numbers, even if they don't find an adequate replacement for Dunn.

Raisor
01-03-2009, 08:33 PM
True, 2008 was bad for a lot of those guys, but I would expect an increase in OBP from all of them with the exception of Votto. I think these are reasonable projections for those guys:
C Hernandez .323
1B Votto .365
2B Phillips .325
3B Encarnacion .351
SS Keppinger .334
LF Jones .317
CF Taveras .334
RF Bruce .336
.

even if all this happens, you still only have two guys OBPing over .336.

Not even in the neighborhood of acceptable.

dougdirt
01-03-2009, 08:54 PM
even if all this happens, you still only have two guys OBPing over .336.

Not even in the neighborhood of acceptable.

Rough guesses here on my part, but this is roughly where I see each guy landing OBP and PT wise.

C Hernandez .325 (425 PA)
C Hanigan .350 (225 PA)
1B Votto .375 (575 PA)
2B Phillips .320 (550 PA)
3B Encarnacion .360 (525 PA)
SS Gonzalez .315 (400 PA)
SS Keppinger .340 (300 PA)
LF Dickerson .350 (400 PA)
CF Taveras .330 (500 PA)
RF Bruce .340 (575 PA)

That would give those guys a combined .341 OBP over their 4475 PA. Great? No. Terrible? No. Of course I want little to do with Jones.

jesusfan
01-03-2009, 09:02 PM
1. Willy Taveras
2. Chris Dickerson
3. Joey Votto
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. Jay Bruce
6. Brandon Phillips
7. Ramon Hernandez
8. Alex Gonzalez

I could probably live with this, as long as you would promise me we would go after it the following season... Mediocrity is getting old...

Ron Madden
01-03-2009, 09:12 PM
I agree. I hope Walt brings in a big bat to play LF, if not I'd much rather see Dickerson out there than Andruw Jones.

TRF
01-03-2009, 09:21 PM
Guaranteed ML contract, league minimum. I'd eat the contract if he stinks in ST, and I wouldn't offer him a dime on his agent, SATAN's say so. I'd meet directly with Jones. He'd have to have a pre ST workout and a physical. And one helluva interview.

But I certainly wouldn't dismiss the idea out of hand.

reds44
01-03-2009, 09:35 PM
One thing you can't do is rule out the Reds getting Jones just because they already have their centerfielder. Nothing wrong with having more than one CF's playing in your outfielder. Dickerson would probably be the starting LFer as of today, and he is a CFer.

remdog
01-03-2009, 09:37 PM
Jones is a Gold Glove CFer..

No. He's not. These days Jones can't even get out of his own footprints.

Rem

remdog
01-03-2009, 09:40 PM
Overall, this is a dumb idea. This guy is toast. He needs to lie on the beach, suck up a beer and try to remember the glory days.

The Reds need to spend time and money with the guys coming up. Give the kids (Dorn, Stubbs Heissey) the AB's in ST.

Rem

camisadelgolf
01-03-2009, 10:25 PM
even if all this happens, you still only have two guys OBPing over .336.

Not even in the neighborhood of acceptable.

I hate to sound like Dusty here, but I think OBP is overrated in some ways. In other words, I don't think you can expect the runs to score themselves just because you put together a lineup of guys who walk often.

Basically, I think there are two kinds of hitters. There are hitters who focus on getting on base and hitters who focus on driving in runs.

A lot of people would tell you that Adam Dunn is a big run producer due to averaging 40 homeruns and 100 RBIs per season. Indeed, those are nice numbers, but imagine how many more RBIs he could have had if he could get a hit with a runner on second base as opposed to taking so many walks. In situations like these, he focused much more on not making an out as opposed to driving in the runner. That's why, during 'clutch' situations, his OBP increased at an incredible rate while his SLG considerably decreased. One big example of this is him having a .184 BA and .423 OBP with a runner on second, a time when the difference between a single and a walk is as big as ever.

First, let me just ask that you not misunderstand me. Having runners on base is, obviously, very important. When the bases are empty, you want to get runners on them. But when you already have a runner in scoring position, which hitter would rather have?
Hitter A: .210/.390/.380
Hitter B: .280/.320/.450

And that (finally) brings me to my point. If you're the Reds, you can't (yet) have a lineup of guys with a high OBP and high SLG. Until you're able to acquire more of those players, you have to score runs through balance, and that's what the Marlins did. In 2008, the Marlins had only three regulars who had an OBP of at least .336. However, they scored only nine runs less than the Cardinals, who had the same slugging percentage (.433) and a much higher OBP. That's why you need a balance of patient hitters and free-swingers. When you have runners on base, you need to find ways to get them home--not ways to "clog the bases".

SteelSD
01-04-2009, 12:48 AM
I hate to sound like Dusty here, but I think OBP is overrated in some ways. In other words, I don't think you can expect the runs to score themselves just because you put together a lineup of guys who walk often.

Basically, I think there are two kinds of hitters. There are hitters who focus on getting on base and hitters who focus on driving in runs.

A lot of people would tell you that Adam Dunn is a big run producer due to averaging 40 homeruns and 100 RBIs per season. Indeed, those are nice numbers, but imagine how many more RBIs he could have had if he could get a hit with a runner on second base as opposed to taking so many walks. In situations like these, he focused much more on not making an out as opposed to driving in the runner. That's why, during 'clutch' situations, his OBP increased at an incredible rate while his SLG considerably decreased. One big example of this is him having a .184 BA and .423 OBP with a runner on second, a time when the difference between a single and a walk is as big as ever.

First, let me just ask that you not misunderstand me. Having runners on base is, obviously, very important. When the bases are empty, you want to get runners on them. But when you already have a runner in scoring position, which hitter would rather have?
Hitter A: .210/.390/.380
Hitter B: .280/.320/.450

And that (finally) brings me to my point. If you're the Reds, you can't (yet) have a lineup of guys with a high OBP and high SLG. Until you're able to acquire more of those players, you have to score runs through balance, and that's what the Marlins did. In 2008, the Marlins had only three regulars who had an OBP of at least .336. However, they scored only nine runs less than the Cardinals, who had the same slugging percentage (.433) and a much higher OBP. That's why you need a balance of patient hitters and free-swingers. When you have runners on base, you need to find ways to get them home--not ways to "clog the bases".

Cripes. The 2008 Marlins actually produced a slightly higher than average IsoD of .072 while finishing with the second highest IsoP in the league (.179). And you wonder why the Marlins produced a decent number of Runs?

And knowing that SLG best correlates with RBI acquisition, you're going to have a pretty hard time disparaging a hitter (Dunn) who's produced a career SLG of .474 with Runners in Scoring Position and .506 with Runners on.

And if you don't care a bit about Runs Created, here are the players who have more combined Runs and RBI than Dunn over the past five seasons:

Alex Rodriguez
Albert Pujols
David Oritiz
Mark Teixiera
Manny Ramirez
Carlos Beltran
Bobby Abreu
Vlad Guerrero
Lance Berkman

Pretty exclusive company. Here are the Reds players who've produced 100 RC for five consecutive years since 1970:

Frank Robinson
<crickets>

And finally, exactly how does a team "clog the bases" when they're better than average in both IsoD and IsoP? The answer is that they don't.

dougdirt
01-04-2009, 12:53 AM
And finally, exactly how does a team "clog the bases" when they're better than average in both IsoD and IsoP?

By being slow says Dusty Baker.

Highlifeman21
01-04-2009, 12:54 AM
By being slow says Dusty Baker.

Speed's gotta get on base for it to matter.

Degenerate39
01-04-2009, 01:02 AM
IMO Jones was probably one of the juicers that didn't get caught. Stay away from him he's probably done.

OnBaseMachine
01-04-2009, 01:13 AM
I've had that thought too...

Veteran Randall Simon, Yurendell De Caster from the Pirates and Shairon Martis from the Nationals are also from Curacao... Below is a link of a list, total of 7 players ever... Clearly Jones the most popular.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/birthplace.php?loc=Curacao

Jair Jurrjens is also from Curacao.

AmarilloRed
01-04-2009, 01:19 AM
I don't think any interested team(assuming there are any) would be interested in trading for Andruw Jones. They will simply wait for the Dodgers to release him.

dougdirt
01-04-2009, 02:02 AM
Speed's gotta get on base for it to matter.

Not to Dusty.

camisadelgolf
01-04-2009, 03:26 AM
Cripes. The 2008 Marlins actually produced a slightly higher than average IsoD of .072 while finishing with the second highest IsoP in the league (.179). And you wonder why the Marlins produced a decent number of Runs?

And knowing that SLG best correlates with RBI acquisition, you're going to have a pretty hard time disparaging a hitter (Dunn) who's produced a career SLG of .474 with Runners in Scoring Position and .506 with Runners on.

And if you don't care a bit about Runs Created, here are the players who have more combined Runs and RBI than Dunn over the past five seasons:

Alex Rodriguez
Albert Pujols
David Oritiz
Mark Teixiera
Manny Ramirez
Carlos Beltran
Bobby Abreu
Vlad Guerrero
Lance Berkman

Pretty exclusive company. Here are the Reds players who've produced 100 RC for five consecutive years since 1970:

Frank Robinson
<crickets>

And finally, exactly how does a team "clog the bases" when they're better than average in both IsoD and IsoP? The answer is that they don't.

It looks like you interpreted what I said as a criticism of Dunn. I didn't intend it that way, though. Dunn is a great hitter who helps any lineup in a major way, but he is what he is. His .474 SLG w/ RISP is very good, but it's below his normal performance, which was my point. In the most important moments, his on-base skills often don't help. In other words, when he's needed most, he performs at his worst, but because he's such a great hitter, the overall results are still good. For example, two outs and RISP is one of his worst splits. His numbers go down during close & late games, too. Anyway, I know it's silly to point out that he's not as good as he could be--that discussion's been had on RedsZone a million times--but I've been getting the impression that people believe Dunn's OBP and IsoD are bigger reasons for his productivity than they actually are. In a time when there's a runner in scoring position, a single is worth much more than a walk, and it's as simple as that.

Just to iterate, Adam Dunn is in "exclusive company" because he's a great hitter. That, and he's a veteran who has done a good job of staying healthy. Obviously, w/ RISP, a walk is better than any kind of out, but a hit is better, and Dunn was sorely lacking in the hits department. Nearly half the runners he drove in were himself, so even if the Reds acquire a guy who doesn't hit 40 homeruns, it might be someone who is more capable of driving in runs because he'll be able to capitalize more when runners are in scoring position. When I compare Dunn to the rest of the people in that "exclusive company", Dunn is the last one on the list I would want with RISP. In the situations I described, I bet I could find at least a couple dozen players I'd rather have than Dunn at the plate because Dunn walks at such a high rate when some other hitters make more of an effort to get the run in as opposed to avoiding an out.

I wasn't wondering why the Marlins did well, by the way. I just pointed out that they managed to score runs with a low OBP.


And finally, exactly how does a team "clog the bases" when they're better than average in both IsoD and IsoP? The answer is that they don't.
This is your forté, SteelSD. I never said a team clogs the bases with above-average IsoD and IsoP. Basically, I was saying that Dusty Baker was correct in a way. With a runner in scoring position, which guy would you rather have?

Player A: .300 BA + .330 OBP
Player B: .270 BA + .360 OBP

With the bases empty, player B is more valuable, and with runners on, player A is more valuable. Adam Dunn was relied on as a guy to drive in runs, which he did successfully because he's so talented. However, his ability to take a walk didn't help with that--it was his ability to hit for power that made the difference. However, there are a lot of players with lesser power and plate discipline who could have created a similar number of runs because they could actually hit above .198 with a player on second or third base.

Both IsoD and IsoP make a huge difference in scoring runs. However, in some situations, the lower IsoD/IsoP player is better. That's all I'm trying to say. Sometimes, I'd rather have Norris Hopper at the plate than Paul Janish, despite Janish having a better overall record (Major League numbers not withstanding).

Mario-Rijo
01-04-2009, 04:14 AM
I'd say no except that #1 it's a great opportunity to fanaggle a SS out of the Dodgers (DeJesus) possibly. And #2 for 400K you can easily cut your losses if he does the same thing in ST. Here's the thing he's not likely to do well even in spring training if he hasn't fixed the issue, if he does do well (a huge if) then he's obviously fixed the problem. Either way 400 K is easy to cut at any point.

If DeJesus is part of the deal it's an absolute no brainer, if you cannot get them to do that then tell them no thanks and move on. I doubt they would deal DeJesus because they would likely rather just cut Jones so really in the end it's likely a no deal. That said I'd give them a fair deal to acquire DeJesus in the deal and Furcal will have his job for the next few years.

GAC
01-04-2009, 09:05 AM
Don't know if this has been posted yet or not....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3807591

A month ago, Andruw Jones was considered untradeable within the baseball industry. Now that his contract has been restructured, to make him more affordable to any interested suitors, the Dodgers intend to weigh his market value again, according to baseball sources.

One way or another, the 10-time Gold Glove winner -- who is still just 32 years old -- will be moving on to another team before the start of the 2009 season, the sources say.

Jones signed a two-year, $36.2 million deal with the Dodgers before last season, but struggled from the outset and in 209 at-bats he hit just .158 with three homers, 33 hits and 76 strikeouts. By season's end, he was away from the team.

The Dodgers spoke with a number of teams early in this offseason to gauge possible trade interest and found almost none, except in cases in which other teams were looking to move their own bad contracts -- such as the Mets, with second baseman Luis Castillo.

Under the original terms of his contract, Jones earned $9 million in 2008 and was set to make $15 million in 2009. He also had been set to receive $2.1 million in a signing bonus in 2009 and another $5 million in 2010.

Jones indicated to the Dodgers he wanted to be traded and asked them how he could facilitate that possibility, sources say. Under the terms of the restructured deal, Jones will be paid the $15 million in salary over the next six seasons with no interest, sources say.

The deal will save the Dodgers about $12 million in salary for 2009; according to the Los Angeles Times, Jones will earn about $5 million in 2009.

MLB.com reported the Players Association has approved the deal because Jones will not give back salary and because he is gaining something he wants and needs -- an exit from L.A.

Even at that greatly reduced rate, the Dodgers may find it difficult to trade Jones in a winter in which the prices on outfielders have dropped markedly. Other teams have tried trading outfielders -- such as the Royals, with Jose Guillen -- without success.

The Braves, Reds and Mets expressed varying degrees of interest in making a deal for Jones this offseason, and the Dodgers are expected to talk again with those clubs.

The Mets' interest all along was predicated on the Dodgers absorbing Castillo's contract, and on Saturday morning a source with knowledge of the trade talks said even with Jones' salary reduced for 2009, the team is virtually certain to pass on a deal for the outfielder.

Jones is playing in winter ball, and scouts say he has continued to struggle. There are many questions among talent evaluators about Jones' physical condition, and whether he will ever be in the kind of shape required for him to be a strong defensive outfielder again.

Jones has always had difficulty coping with breaking pitches low and away but never more so than last season, when his strikeout problem became acute and greatly affected his confidence, some scouts believe.

If the Dodgers can't find a trade partner, they are likely to soon release Jones -- a borderline Hall of Fame player with 371 career homers -- and he would be free to sign elsewhere for the $400,000 minimum.

remdog
01-04-2009, 09:11 AM
"... a borderline Hall of Fame player..."

Give me a break! Jones has had a nice career but it's over and I will never, ever consider him to be HOF material.

Rem

Krusty
01-04-2009, 09:39 AM
Don't know if this has been posted yet or not....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3807591

A month ago, Andruw Jones was considered untradeable within the baseball industry. Now that his contract has been restructured, to make him more affordable to any interested suitors, the Dodgers intend to weigh his market value again, according to baseball sources.

One way or another, the 10-time Gold Glove winner -- who is still just 32 years old -- will be moving on to another team before the start of the 2009 season, the sources say.

Jones signed a two-year, $36.2 million deal with the Dodgers before last season, but struggled from the outset and in 209 at-bats he hit just .158 with three homers, 33 hits and 76 strikeouts. By season's end, he was away from the team.

The Dodgers spoke with a number of teams early in this offseason to gauge possible trade interest and found almost none, except in cases in which other teams were looking to move their own bad contracts -- such as the Mets, with second baseman Luis Castillo.

Under the original terms of his contract, Jones earned $9 million in 2008 and was set to make $15 million in 2009. He also had been set to receive $2.1 million in a signing bonus in 2009 and another $5 million in 2010.

Jones indicated to the Dodgers he wanted to be traded and asked them how he could facilitate that possibility, sources say. Under the terms of the restructured deal, Jones will be paid the $15 million in salary over the next six seasons with no interest, sources say.

The deal will save the Dodgers about $12 million in salary for 2009; according to the Los Angeles Times, Jones will earn about $5 million in 2009.

MLB.com reported the Players Association has approved the deal because Jones will not give back salary and because he is gaining something he wants and needs -- an exit from L.A.

Even at that greatly reduced rate, the Dodgers may find it difficult to trade Jones in a winter in which the prices on outfielders have dropped markedly. Other teams have tried trading outfielders -- such as the Royals, with Jose Guillen -- without success.

The Braves, Reds and Mets expressed varying degrees of interest in making a deal for Jones this offseason, and the Dodgers are expected to talk again with those clubs.

The Mets' interest all along was predicated on the Dodgers absorbing Castillo's contract, and on Saturday morning a source with knowledge of the trade talks said even with Jones' salary reduced for 2009, the team is virtually certain to pass on a deal for the outfielder.

Jones is playing in winter ball, and scouts say he has continued to struggle. There are many questions among talent evaluators about Jones' physical condition, and whether he will ever be in the kind of shape required for him to be a strong defensive outfielder again.

Jones has always had difficulty coping with breaking pitches low and away but never more so than last season, when his strikeout problem became acute and greatly affected his confidence, some scouts believe.

If the Dodgers can't find a trade partner, they are likely to soon release Jones -- a borderline Hall of Fame player with 371 career homers -- and he would be free to sign elsewhere for the $400,000 minimum.

After reading this, I think the Reds should pass. I still think Delmon Young might not be a bad acquistion.

Raisor
01-04-2009, 10:00 AM
With a runner in scoring position, which guy would you rather have?

Player A: .300 BA + .330 OBP
Player B: .270 BA + .360 OBP



Assuming the two have the same SLG, I'll take player B. He makes less outs and creates more runs, about 10 more runs a season. (Per 600 PA's).

More runs=more wins.

Jpup
01-04-2009, 10:51 AM
"... a borderline Hall of Fame player..."

Give me a break! Jones has had a nice career but it's over and I will never, ever consider him to be HOF material.

Rem

He was the best player at his position for a long time.

camisadelgolf
01-04-2009, 11:53 AM
Assuming the two have the same SLG, I'll take player B. He makes less outs and creates more runs, about 10 more runs a season. (Per 600 PA's).

More runs=more wins.

How would he be creating more runs in the situation I described?

bucksfan2
01-04-2009, 12:34 PM
"... a borderline Hall of Fame player..."

Give me a break! Jones has had a nice career but it's over and I will never, ever consider him to be HOF material.

Rem

Two years ago he was headed for the hall. He had around 350 HRs, a 10 time gold golve winner, entering the prime of his career. He was also coming off a back to back season in which he hit 51 then 41 HR's. If he continued that pace for 3-5 more years thought his prime he had a place in cooperstown waiting.

Sea Ray
01-04-2009, 12:34 PM
I'm not sure anyone can top Fay's actual response, which basically breaks down to:

"Well, aside from the fact that his hitting has tanked, the Dodgers probably won't eat a huge amount of his salary and CF is Willy Taveras' position anyway."

Thanks for being the "insider" we fans expect of you John Fay.


Jones indicated to the Dodgers he wanted to be traded and asked them how he could facilitate that possibility, sources say. Under the terms of the restructured deal, Jones will be paid the $15 million in salary over the next six seasons with no interest, sources say.

The deal will save the Dodgers about $12 million in salary for 2009; according to the Los Angeles Times, Jones will earn about $5 million in 2009.

Obviously Fay is not in the know. I think we Reds fans can read the tea leaves better than Fay

osuceltic
01-04-2009, 12:37 PM
Deciding on a potential Jones acquisition depends largely on things we don't know, but Jocketty probably would -- his current physical condition, scouting reports, etc. This is the kind of move you make if you have reports that indicate the player is making an effort to improve himself. If they scout him in winter ball and talk to coaches and others close to him and decide he's the same player he was in LA, you don't bother. But if you do your homework and find out the guy is losing weight, working with a personal trainer, stuff like that ... then a low-cost flyer makes a lot of sense.

nate
01-04-2009, 01:19 PM
Get your Jones Jones here (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/olneys-latest-a.html):


Buster Olney says that despite the Dodgers' restructuring of Andruw Jones' contract, serious regression in his abilities has resulted in minimal interest around the league. The Reds are not a good fit and the Mets aren't interested. Regression may be directly related to a weight increase and that his career could be "in jeopardy." Olney writes,

"There is not a lot of confidence in the minds of evaluators that Jones is a candidate for a body transformation... he has never been known as a workout freak... he has looked bad in winter ball this year, reports one highly ranked executive.

The Dodgers will probably end up releasing him before spring training, and somebody will give him a chance -- and he needs to show something, in a hurry, because there is a perception within the industry that he might be finished, despite his age, despite the fact that he slammed 41 homers in 2006."

Jones is owed only $5MM next season.

corkedbat
01-04-2009, 01:51 PM
Sounds like one of those guys that never had to worry about what they ate or how much they workout and then they get close to 30 and everything goes pear-shaped (literally). Metabolism is a ...(well, you know what it is).

I thought maybe he was asking for the trade because he had been embarrassed by last season and hit it hard over the offseason to try and make it back - seems like that's not the case at all. Stay far away under any circumstances - even if the Dodgers pay us $5M.

That should be the end of it, but then Jicketty at one time said we had no interest in WT because of his low OBP.

RedsManRick
01-04-2009, 01:55 PM
How would he be creating more runs in the situation I described?

You've described a specific scenario which advantages the less productive player. This is the same trap small ball proponents fall in to all the time. Sure, there are times when batting average is more useful than mere OBP, there are times when speed can win a game, etc. But the game doesn't follow a script.

If a guy is playing every day, he will have opportunities in nearly every circumstance. So yeah, that higher BA, lower OBP guy will be up with a runner on 2nd and the team in desperate need of an RBI. But more often, he'll be up with the bases empty and the team in need of a baserunner.

With an everyday player, you can't pick and choose when their skills get used. You need to go with the guys who are most productive overall. Sure, you may not be able to manufacture that run that gives you warm and fuzzy memories of the 1960s or 1980s. But you'll make up for it in 2 run doubles instead of 1 run doubles, in getting starting pitchers out in the 5th inning, and simply scoring more runs. Trading overall production for a skillset that is marginally better in limited circumstances is a still net loss.

To say nothing of the fact that in your specific circumstance, if the worse AVG guy takes a walk instead of getting a base hit, he's merely creating an even better RBI situation for the guy behind him. Walks are very rarely a bad thing for the sake of scoring runs in a given inning, even if they aren't the best outcome for a given at bat. Thinking in terms of scoring runs as a team effort in which you maximize bases while minimizing outs instead of giving specific "jobs" to given batters (run scorer, "RBI guy", etc.) is a key issue in understanding how to maximize run production.

Raisor
01-04-2009, 02:00 PM
How would he be creating more runs in the situation I described?


The only "situation" I saw was RISP.

Less outs lead to more runs. You're talking about RBI, I'm talking about run creation.

The entire game is based on getting on base (OBP) and aquiring bases (SLG).

Let's not make it harder then it is.

camisadelgolf
01-04-2009, 02:37 PM
It sounds like my point is getting lost in translation. I'm going to try to clear some things up.

OBP, SLG, IsoD, IsoP, etc. are all important. Obviously, the more players you have who excel at any or all of those, the better. That's why the Cubs and Red Sox have superior offenses. Unfortunately, the Reds don't have the talent nor the money to put together a lineup full of players who are good at these things. This means that the Reds need to find ways to score runs through balance.

A misconception about Adam Dunn is that he is good at knocking in runners because of all those skills I listed above. However, his ability to knock in guys on the base paths came from his power numbers and have nothing to do with his OBP and IsoD. A lot of runners were left on base because Adam Dunn failed to produce in situations were runs had to be manufactured. Regardless of how high or low the IsoD is, you have to figure out a way to get the runners home. Adam Dunn's low contact rate resulted in a lot of runners left on base. I'm trying to say that you could replace Dunn with a player who appears to have lower overall production and still manage to get the same overall production as long as the lineup is set up to do so. Dunn got on base frequently, which put the other hitters in position to knock him in, but Dunn was being counted on to knock runners in, which resulted in a lot of players left on base. If you had replaced Dunn with a guy who has a higher batting average, identical SLG, but lower IsoD, he could have had better overall production because Dunn failed during the moments he was counted on. Okay, well, he didn't fail--he managed to avoid outs--but he didn't succeed.

I'll word that more simply. A high IsoD results in a lot of scoring opportunities, many of which are wasted. A low IsoD results in less opportunities but more production with runners on base. You don't need to have a lineup full of high-IsoD guys. Isn't it possible that a combination of high-IsoD and low-IsoD would make a better lineup than one that has only high-IsoD or only low-IsoD players? After all, it's extremely rare that a walk results in an RBI.

RedsManRick
01-04-2009, 03:37 PM
It sounds like my point is getting lost in translation. I'm going to try to clear some things up.

OBP, SLG, IsoD, IsoP, etc. are all important. Obviously, the more players you have who excel at any or all of those, the better. That's why the Cubs and Red Sox have superior offenses. Unfortunately, the Reds don't have the talent nor the money to put together a lineup full of players who are good at these things. This means that the Reds need to find ways to score runs through balance.

A misconception about Adam Dunn is that he is good at knocking in runners because of all those skills I listed above.

That misconception doesn't really exist; It's a strawman. The only people who think Dunn should be a big "RBI" guy are those who kept batting him 5th and 6th. Adam Dunn is decidedly mediocre at converting RBI opportunities. That horse has been beaten to death. He is an elite run producer, with much of that run production value coming from his stellar ability at taking walks when he's not hitting homers.


I'm trying to say that you could replace Dunn with a player who appears to have lower overall production and still manage to get the same overall production as long as the lineup is set up to do so. Dunn got on base frequently, which put the other hitters in position to knock him in, but Dunn was being counted on to knock runners in, which resulted in a lot of players left on base. If you had replaced Dunn with a guy who has a higher batting average, identical SLG, but lower IsoD, he could have had better overall production because Dunn failed during the moments he was counted on. Okay, well, he didn't fail--he managed to avoid outs--but he didn't succeed.

This is the problem. You can get the same amount of RBI out of somebody who appears to have lower overall production. However, if you're fixing SLG as equal, then by definition that replacement is getting on base less often.

The only reason this sort of makes sense is, as you pointed out, because Dunn was thoroughly misused. His excellent OBP was often wasted because he was being used as an "RBI guy", with poor hitters behind him. That we could replace the production by using a lesser producer in the abstract speaks to the fact that we were using Dunn inefficiently.

It's like you have a car that gets 30 mpg, but you constantly put crappy gas in it and get only 20. You then argue that the car was too expensive, so you go and buy a car that only gets 20 mpg. Now you might think you've won because you spent less money and still got 20 mpg. But you've missed the point, which is that in order to meet your monthly budget, you need to be driving a car that gets 30 mpg.


I'll word that more simply. A high IsoD results in a lot of scoring opportunities, many of which are wasted. A low IsoD results in less opportunities but more production with runners on base. You don't need to have a lineup full of high-IsoD guys. Isn't it possible that a combination of high-IsoD and low-IsoD would make a better lineup than one that has only high-IsoD or only low-IsoD players? After all, it's extremely rare that a walk results in an RBI.

You'd think so, but reality doesn't really bear that out. Take a team with a given OBP and a given SLG. The batting average of that team (and thus the balance of discipline and power you've discussed) tells us nothing more about how many runs that team will score. Once you hold SLG and OBP constant, the combination of walks, singles, and extra base hits doesn't matter much. Fewer hits and more walks also means more extra base hits, which are the most likely to drive in runs. More hits and fewer walks means less extra base hits. Jason Bay might be better than Dunn at driving in a run from 2B, but Dunn is better at driving in the runner who starts at home. (Bay and Dunn are good case studies for the scenario you describe)

Hold everything else constant and I'd gladly trade every walk for a single if I could. But if you're really holding SLG constant, then you aren't just trading walks for singles. You're also trading homers for singles too. On balance, it's a wash in terms of runs scored and runners left on base. You simply don't realize the sort of efficiency gain you describe.

Put together a team full of Adam Dunn's and you'd be hitting multi-run homers out the wazoo. Put together a team of .Jason Bays guys and you'd be doubling runners in constantly. The Dunn team would have more innings of 2 runners on and more innings of no runners on while the Bay team would leave 1 runner on base more often. But both teams would score runs at essentially the same rate and leave the same number of base runners on at the end of the day.

The Reds need to get that 30 mpg. The idea that we can buy a cheaper car and tweak it sufficiently to get there is a fool's errand.
It's one thing to have the discussion above when trying to decide between an Adam Dunn and a Jason Bay. It's a win-win scenario. If you prefer the higher AVG guy, that's fine with me. You run in to trouble when you use the argument you've made to justify a lower OBP because it comes along with that higher AVG. When you start trading away OBP, SLG, or (God forbid) both at the altar of batting average, you're losing ground.

Mario-Rijo
01-04-2009, 04:56 PM
Hold everything else constant and I'd gladly trade every walk for a single if I could. But if you're really holding SLG constant, then you aren't just trading walks for singles. You're also trading homers for singles too. On balance, it's a wash in terms of runs scored and runners left on base. You simply don't realize the sort of efficiency gain you describe.

I'm not really arguing you're overall point here just wanted to point something out that we have gone over before but never really IMO got any closure on.

By your above statement I assume you feel that a guy who hits for a higher average does so because he swings at more than he should and at stuff not ideal to square the ball correctly. Thus resulting in a lack of power. Do you believe that the Gwynn's and Rose's and the Boggs of the world went up there swinging at stuff that wasn't a strike? I mean I do get that those types often traded a little bat speed for better bat control but I don't recall those guys swingin at obvious balls just to appease their desire to get a hit. I also don't think they lost much in the way of power #'s either, they certainly weren't sluggers. Just curious because I just don't think that theory holds a lot of water. For example a guy like Wily Mo Pena has enough power that if he slowed down his bat speed a tick for better bat control he might actually hit more HR's.

RedsManRick
01-04-2009, 05:42 PM
I'm not really arguing you're overall point here just wanted to point something out that we have gone over before but never really IMO got any closure on.

By your above statement I assume you feel that a guy who hits for a higher average does so because he swings at more than he should and at stuff not ideal to square the ball correctly. Thus resulting in a lack of power. Do you believe that the Gwynn's and Rose's and the Boggs of the world went up there swinging at stuff that wasn't a strike? I mean I do get that those types often traded a little bat speed for better bat control but I don't recall those guys swingin at obvious balls just to appease their desire to get a hit. I also don't think they lost much in the way of power #'s either, they certainly weren't sluggers. Just curious because I just don't think that theory holds a lot of water. For example a guy like Wily Mo Pena has enough power that if he slowed down his bat speed a tick for better bat control he might actually hit more HR's.

I believe that the Gwynns, Roses, and Boggs of the world were exceptionally talented at putting the bat squarely on the ball. They had world-class hand-eye coordination. But I also know that none of them had much natural power. Like all (or most) players, they tailored their approach to make the most of their natural strengths. Had they tried to muscle up and hit for more power, they likely would have been less productive overall, picking up some extra homers at the cost of a lot of base hits.

Conversely, Wily Mo Pena (or Dunn) has a ton of natural power, but relatively little natural hand-eye coordination; he's just not great at squaring up the baseball -- especially on certain types of pitches and in certain locations. Dealing broadly with the player with more power but less hand-eye coordination, I would make the same argument I made above. If that player were to dial back his power and focus on making contact, he'd likely be a less productive player overall.

This assertion is based on the following hypothesis. Players try to develop all of their skills at the plate: pitch recognition, making contact, and hitting the ball hard. By the time a guy gets to the majors and especially after a few years in, he's done most of his skill development. His fundamental abilities are what they are. It's not that Gwynn chose the path of high contact/ low power and Dunn the opposite. It's that as they maximized all of their skills, that's where they ended up. And as they developed, they tweaked their plate approaches to get the most production out of what they were physically capable of doing. Gwynn wasn't going to benefit from waiting for a "perfect pitch" and marginally increasing his power, so he honed his ability to put any strike in play solidly. Dunn wasn't going to benefit from dialing back the power and making marginally more contact, so he honed his ability to kill the pitches he could reliably hit.

This is what I don't understand. Why do so many people easily get that Gwynn's situation and accept his limitations, but demand that guys like Dunn dial back the power and hit for more contact, as if it were a choice they were making?

That's not to say I'm completely fatalistic about it. Most every player can improve his production by tweaking his approach in some way that allows him to maximize the use of his skill set. But fans, broadly speaking, are grossly biased against those who have trouble making contact. Maybe it's a result of the history of the game and the misunderstanding of the value of batting average relative to OBP and SLG. Maybe it's the natural human bias to prefer quantity over quality. Maybe it's because we've conceptualized contact as something you "do" and power as something that merely "happens". In any case, we need to realize that both making contact and hitting the ball far when contact is made are the result of a set of skills which are possessed in unique combination. Any suggested change in approach should be considerate of the skills required and of whether or not the player truly possesses those skills.

IslandRed
01-04-2009, 06:13 PM
But fans, broadly speaking, are grossly biased against those who have trouble making contact. Maybe it's a result of the history of the game and the misunderstanding of the value of batting average relatively to OBP and SLG. Maybe it's the natural human bias to prefer quantity over quality. Maybe it's because we've conceptualized contact as something you "do" and power as something that merely "happens".

I think it's just a function of the "everything I need to know about baseball, I learned in Little League" mentality. People extrapolate all the platitudes they heard as kids onto major-leaguers. And, from most peoples' youth baseball experiences, the ability to make contact goes a long way toward separating the good players from the bad ones. There's really no such thing as a great youth ballplayer who strikes out a lot. The dynamic obviously changes by the time a player reaches the pros -- for one thing, all the pitchers he's facing are the ones who struck everyone out in Little League -- but the prejudice dies hard.

*BaseClogger*
01-04-2009, 06:22 PM
So, if by the off chance we acquire Andruw Jones, how do we know Dusty wouldn't play Jones in CF out of respect? I guess the only thing I can see keeping him from doing it is the idea that Taveras has to play CF to leadoff...

red-in-la
01-04-2009, 06:50 PM
I'm not really arguing you're overall point here just wanted to point something out that we have gone over before but never really IMO got any closure on.

By your above statement I assume you feel that a guy who hits for a higher average does so because he swings at more than he should and at stuff not ideal to square the ball correctly. Thus resulting in a lack of power. Do you believe that the Gwynn's and Rose's and the Boggs of the world went up there swinging at stuff that wasn't a strike? I mean I do get that those types often traded a little bat speed for better bat control but I don't recall those guys swingin at obvious balls just to appease their desire to get a hit. I also don't think they lost much in the way of power #'s either, they certainly weren't sluggers. Just curious because I just don't think that theory holds a lot of water. For example a guy like Wily Mo Pena has enough power that if he slowed down his bat speed a tick for better bat control he might actually hit more HR's.

Pete Rose used to visually upset when he was walked in a situation where a hit would have driven in run(s). He also talked about how he would at times swing at pitched he knew were out of the strike zone trying to get a hit instead of being walked. Rose especially disliked intentional walks.

Rose however, was happy to take a walk when there was no one on base or some one on first. Maybe Pete was just being a showman, who knows. But he understood the game and what he really wanted was to win a game.

I am not sure if it was intentional or not but two guys who hit balls on a regular basisi were Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn.

As to the stats, I was taught that any randomly selected group of stas cannot prove anything that is not already proven by some other observation.

So, no mater how much you quote stats, you are still expressing an INFORMED opinion......

Funny how I seldom hear any LOB stat involved in the OBP discussion. It seems like the Dodgers, for years have been frustrating their fams by leaving men on base at a very high rate.

RedsManRick
01-04-2009, 07:17 PM
As to the stats, I was taught that any randomly selected group of stas cannot prove anything that is not already proven by some other observation.

So, no mater how much you quote stats, you are still expressing an INFORMED opinion......

Can you elaborate on this, both in regards to what you mean and how it applies to this discussion?

Do you mean to imply that because stats require context that they provide no additional information?

As for the LOB conversation, I'd love to see the evidence that, holding OBP and SLG equal, a higher AVG leads to fewer men LOB, as you've asserted. (assuming of course this is the implication you intended. Because if we're complaining about a team leaving more guys on base when it's because they get more guys on base to begin with, that's just stupid)

A few basics to establish first (we can take up these points individually if you'd like...):

1.) If you know a team's OBP and SLG, knowing the team's AVG doesn't help you predict run scoring.
2.) LOB is essentially the difference between the number of runs scored and the number of base runners. (outs on the bases accounting for a small difference)

We have two teams with equal OBP and SLG, one with a high AVG and one with a low AVG. Let's follow the logic. We know from point 1 that both teams are going to score the same number of runs (on balance -- random variation is at play too). Thus, both teams are going to leave the same number of runners on base. Same OBP & Same Runs = Same LOB. Given a fixed OBP and SLG, the team that hits for the higher average will leave just as many guys on base as the team that hits for a lower average.

Think about it... If you're holding OBP and SLG constant, a lower AVG means more than just fewer walks and more singles. If that were true, the higher average team would be SLG higher too. Thus, it also means fewer extra base hits -- extra base hits which drive runners from 1st base that singles don't. And there are a lot more base runners on 1st base at any given point in time there are on 2nd or 3rd.

Sure, we can limit the discussion to situations with a runner on 2nd or 3rd, but we're talking about player types here. You can't turn Dunn in to Pete Rose (or visa versa) based on the circumstance. This is a perfect example of not differentiating between an approach tailored to a specific skill set (in this case, an ability to make good contact on demand) and a general philosophy. Pete could succeed with this circumstantial approach because of his skill set. Not all productive players have his hand-eye coordination.

Let's say there are two outs and a guy on 2B. In terms of run scoring, unless you can be pretty darn sure that you're going to make solid contact, you're better off taking a walk and giving the guy behind you a chance to drive in 2. If Dunn tried that approach, he'd just strike out even more and walk and hit homers less. Of course, this goes to the point of utilizing Dunn so that you can leverage his ability to work a walk or to kill the ball when guys have to pitch to him. Instead we got a series of managers who wanted Dunn to pretend like he was Pete Rose.

AmarilloRed
01-17-2009, 01:16 AM
The Dodgers have now released Andruw Jones. Any team that now signs him will only have to pay the $400,000 minimum, and it is widely expected Andruw might have to sign a minor league deal.

WVPacman
01-17-2009, 01:33 AM
I heard that he wants to go back to the Braves BUT does the Braves want him? I say no!

Topcat
01-17-2009, 04:39 AM
Shoot at 400 k I even sign the fat our of shape Andrew Jones , even then he could still pick it in the outfield. but from recent reports he has apparently slimmed down.

deltachi8
02-09-2009, 12:47 PM
Jones signs with the Rangers

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3892693


Rangers, Jones agree to deal
Comment Email Print
ESPN.com news services

Released by the Los Angeles Dodgers, Andruw Jones will have the opportunity to try to resurrect his career with the Texas Rangers.

Several media outlets reported Sunday that Texas will sign Jones to a minor league deal that will pay him $500,000 if he makes the major league team. He also will have the chance to make $1 million in incentives.
Jones
Jones

"He's a long shot to make the team as we sit today but an interesting reclamation project," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. Daniels also confirmed the deal will probably be announced within the next two days.

Jones reportedly turned down an offer from the New York Yankees to compete for an outfield spot. A source told the New York Post that Jones picked the Rangers so he could work with batting coach Rudy Jaramillo.

"He's certainly been a superstar for quite a few years," Rangers manager Ron Washington said, according to MLB.com. "These past few years have been down for him, but I like the fact that he brings 10 Gold Gloves, he's a winner and he fits well into our clubhouse. He has something to prove. We've got him in camp now, we'll see where he goes from here."

Heralded as the answer to the Dodgers' power-hitting void when he signed his rich two-year, $36.2 million contract in December 2007, Jones was injured part of last season and was mostly ineffective otherwise, hitting only .158 with three home runs and 14 RBIs in 75 games.

The 31-year-old center fielder reported to spring training overweight, then was booed roundly by fans as he struggled at the plate during the season. He had knee surgery in May and finished the season on the bench as the Dodgers won the NL West and beat the Chicago Cubs in the NL divisional series before losing to Philadelphia in the NL Championship Series.

Jones asked to be traded after that and the Dodgers tried, but found no takers. The Dodgers owe Jones $22.1 million, which he'll receive over the next six years.

When the Dodgers added Manny Ramirez in a trade deadline deal July 31, that left Jones with minimal opportunities. But with the staggering performance by Ramirez (.396 with 17 homers and 53 RBIs in 53 games) and the fine work of fellow outfielders Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, Jones was hardly missed.

Jones came to Los Angeles as a five-time All-Star who had won 10 straight Gold Gloves with the Atlanta Braves and as one of 10 players in baseball history to hit 300 homers before the age of 30. He had 342, tying him with Mel Ott and Henry Aaron for the sixth-youngest player to reach that milestone.

Superdude
02-09-2009, 02:07 PM
For some reason, this offseason is especially hard to watch. Jocketty had so many cheap, creative options to give us a fighting chance next season, and he overpays for Willy Taveras?!

VR
02-09-2009, 02:51 PM
For some reason, this offseason is especially hard to watch. Jocketty had so many cheap, creative options to give us a fighting chance next season, and he overpays for Willy Taveras?!

I think the issue w/ Jones has more to do with his work ethic....as well as the fact that steroids are 'really' banned now.

TRF
02-09-2009, 03:12 PM
I'll go out on a limb right now and say he posts a .270, .330, .550 line in Texas.

minimum.

OnBaseMachine
02-09-2009, 03:28 PM
I'll go out on a limb right now and say he posts a .270, .330, .550 line in Texas.

minimum.

I don't know if I expect him to be *that* good but I do think he'll rebound enough to post an .800 OPS while playing above average defense.

TRF
02-09-2009, 03:43 PM
I don't know if I expect him to be *that* good but I do think he'll rebound enough to post an .800 OPS while playing above average defense.

Texas is a great place to hit. The AL West is a great place to hit period.

OnBaseMachine
02-09-2009, 03:47 PM
Texas is a great place to hit. The AL West is a great place to hit period.

It certainly is possible for him to post the numbers you suggested but I see him around the .800 OPS area. Either way, Texas would have to be thrilled if he posts numbers anywhere close to what you and I have predicted.

TRF
02-09-2009, 03:48 PM
either way, opportunity lost for the Reds.

OnBaseMachine
02-09-2009, 03:51 PM
either way, opportunity lost for the Reds.

I agree. For the price he signed for, the Reds should have been all over him. I would've even offered him a major league contract.

bucksfan2
02-09-2009, 04:08 PM
I agree. For the price he signed for, the Reds should have been all over him. I would've even offered him a major league contract.

There was a thread on RZ about the prospects about Jones. I would guess that the responses were 90-10 against the signing of Jones.

TRF
02-09-2009, 04:24 PM
There was a thread on RZ about the prospects about Jones. I would guess that the responses were 90-10 against the signing of Jones.

I was one of the 10.

bucksfan2
02-09-2009, 04:34 PM
I was one of the 10.

As was I but I find it ironic how the perception has changed from "Andruw Jones is done" to "Jocketty isn't doing his job".

Sea Ray
02-09-2009, 05:38 PM
I'll go out on a limb right now and say he posts a .270, .330, .550 line in Texas.

minimum.

Wow. I think he'll be lucky to spend the year in the major leagues. He got cut from his Venezuelan Winter Ball team. I agree with the Rangers in that it's a longshot that he'll even make the team. You saw him last year in LA. You've heard the reports out of Venezuela, what makes you think he'll magically find it?

With Josh Hamilton in CF, I don't see much playing time for him in Texas. The only way he turns it around is if he's willing to go work on his game in the minors. I see this ending badly in Texas.

I'll go out on a limb and say his numbers will be worse than Willy Taveras'

klw
02-09-2009, 05:41 PM
Well seeing Jones dismissed going to Boston because Boston is too cold it could be that Jones would not have considered teams outside of the south.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/02/cafardos-late-1.html

Chip R
02-09-2009, 05:58 PM
Wow. I think he'll be lucky to spend the year in the major leagues. He got cut from his Venezuelan Winter Ball team. I agree with the Rangers in that it's a longshot that he'll even make the team. You saw him last year in LA. You've heard the reports out of Venezuela, what makes you think he'll magically find it?

With Josh Hamilton in CF, I don't see much playing time for him in Texas. The only way he turns it around is if he's willing to go work on his game in the minors. I see this ending badly in Texas.


I saw something about a week or so ago that Nolan Ryan said that they were planning on moving Josh to RF.

TRF
02-09-2009, 06:00 PM
Wow. I think he'll be lucky to spend the year in the major leagues. He got cut from his Venezuelan Winter Ball team. I agree with the Rangers in that it's a longshot that he'll even make the team. You saw him last year in LA. You've heard the reports out of Venezuela, what makes you think he'll magically find it?

With Josh Hamilton in CF, I don't see much playing time for him in Texas. The only way he turns it around is if he's willing to go work on his game in the minors. I see this ending badly in Texas.

I'll go out on a limb and say his numbers will be worse than Willy Taveras'

Desperation made Josh Hamilton a budding superstar.

Jones has a much longer history of success. He's likely fully recovered from knee surgery and faces being out of the game at 31(?).

Yep. I think he can be a .875+ OPS guy. been wrong before, but I like his chances.

remdog
02-09-2009, 07:08 PM
Desperation made Josh Hamilton a budding superstar.

Jones has a much longer history of success. He's likely fully recovered from knee surgery and faces being out of the game at 31(?).

Yep. I think he can be a .875+ OPS guy. been wrong before, but I like his chances.

I watched Jones last year (when he did play) and, IMO it wasn't his knee that was the problem. I'm glad the Reds passed on him. And I've been wrong before too but I don't like his chances.

Rem

*BaseClogger*
02-09-2009, 10:11 PM
I watched Jones last year (when he did play) and, IMO it wasn't his knee that was the problem. I'm glad the Reds passed on him. And I've been wrong before too but I don't like his chances.

Rem

I'm with you. He just looked done. But I do see a parallel between the Sammy Sosa who was toast for the Orioles and moved on to success in Texas and the Andruw Jones who was toast for the Dodgers and is now playing games in the hitter's paradise in Arlington...

remdog
02-09-2009, 10:18 PM
I'm with you. He just looked done. But I do see a parallel between the Sammy Sosa who was toast for the Orioles and moved on to success in Texas and the Andruw Jones who was toast for the Dodgers and is now playing games in the hitter's paradise in Arlington...

Maybe. But the Sosa of '05 (the O's) was light years ahead of the Jones of '08 (the Dodgers) and even Jones' '07 season (the Braves).

Rem

*BaseClogger*
02-09-2009, 10:22 PM
Maybe. But the Sosa of '05 (the O's) was light years ahead of the Jones of '08 (the Dodgers) and even Jones' '07 season (the Braves).

Rem

The Sosa with the O's was much worse than Jones with the Braves in '07. Andruw is younger too...

RedEye
02-09-2009, 10:27 PM
The Sosa with the O's was much worse than Jones with the Braves in '07. Andruw is younger too...

Yeah, but if some players have a "young body," then I think Andruw might have the opposite. He just looks like he's let himself go, and that can't help his prospects for recovering what he's lost.

remdog
02-09-2009, 10:30 PM
The Sosa with the O's was much worse than Jones with the Braves in '07. Andruw is younger too...

I certainly wouldn't agree with that statement.

As for age, well, are we really sure that Jones is 31 and not, say, 38? The kind of drop off he's had just doesn' happen to 29 year olds unless there is something else going on. And, by that, I'm not talking about a knee injury.

Rem

*BaseClogger*
02-09-2009, 11:20 PM
They both made no contact at all what so ever--both around a .220 BA--but at least Jones flashed some plate discipline and power in '07. I am in no way a scout and both looked over matched but at least Jones was 30 BA points away from being very useful. Now, what happened to him last year was scary, but if I trusted my scouts I'd bring him in on a small contract and give him a look in the spring--see if he has figured anything out. He has his uses if he hits like he did in '07 and plays good defense on the cheap...

15fan
02-09-2009, 11:36 PM
I watched Jones last year (when he did play) and, IMO it wasn't his knee that was the problem. I'm glad the Reds passed on him. And I've been wrong before too but I don't like his chances.


He's done. Ka-put. Finished.

Think Bret Boone's approach & mechanics at the plate circa 1997 + Jimmy Anderson's physique + Austin Kearns' psyche.

That's what you're getting with Andruw Jones right now. It's pretty obvious he doesn't give a flip any more. It's been obvious for a couple of years. You'd be better off flushing money down a toilet than giving it to him in any sort of contract.

Ron Madden
02-10-2009, 04:31 AM
As was I but I find it ironic how the perception has changed from "Andruw Jones is done" to "Jocketty isn't doing his job".

How has the perception of RedsZone changed from "Andruw Jones is done" to "Jocketty isn't doing his job"?

I'd bet most of RedsZone still agrees that Jones is done.

jojo
02-10-2009, 12:45 PM
How has the perception of RedsZone changed from "Andruw Jones is done" to "Jocketty isn't doing his job"?

I'd bet most of RedsZone still agrees that Jones is done.

Even though Jocketty didn't sign him, Jones is still a risk with no real upside IMHO.

TRF
02-10-2009, 01:01 PM
He's done. Ka-put. Finished.

Think Bret Boone's approach & mechanics at the plate circa 1997 + Jimmy Anderson's physique + Austin Kearns' psyche.

That's what you're getting with Andruw Jones right now. It's pretty obvious he doesn't give a flip any more. It's been obvious for a couple of years. You'd be better off flushing money down a toilet than giving it to him in any sort of contract.

He's facing the end of his career. Reports are he's in much better shape than at any time in '08 and he's recovered from knee surgery.

I'm not saying he's without risk, but he's at a crossroads, and you just know Boras is doing everything in his evil powers to resurrect his career.

VR
02-10-2009, 02:02 PM
He's done. Ka-put. Finished.

Think Bret Boone's approach & mechanics at the plate circa 1997 + Jimmy Anderson's physique + Austin Kearns' psyche.



I thought you were going to say Bret Boone, post steroids. Another good comparison.

Chip R
02-10-2009, 02:31 PM
Andruw didn't want to play for teams up north so he wasn't coming here in the first place.

redsmetz
02-10-2009, 02:38 PM
He's facing the end of his career. Reports are he's in much better shape than at any time in '08 and he's recovered from knee surgery.

I'm not saying he's without risk, but he's at a crossroads, and you just know Boras is doing everything in his evil powers to resurrect his career.

Isn't that an agent's job? If I was a player, I'd certainly want my agent trying to help me keep it going.

Unassisted
03-18-2009, 06:01 PM
http://www.star-telegram.com/284/v-print/story/1264268.html


Andruw Jones could opt out of minor-league deal with Texas Rangers


By JEFF WILSON
jwilson@star-telegram.com
SURPRISE, Ariz. — Center fielder Andruw Jones had a message from agent Scott Boras on his cellphone when he headed to the clubhouse Tuesday, and the five-time All-Star assumed it was to talk about his future with the Rangers.

Jones can opt out of his minor-league deal Friday if he isn’t on the 40-man roster. Even though there is flexibility with the opt-out date, it looks more and more likely that the Rangers won’t add Jones.

He hasn’t played in the past three Cactus League games.

"We’ll see what happens Friday. We’ll probably make our decision," Jones said. "They probably will make their decision soon. The main thing is to go out there and get at-bats and get the work in that you need."

The quest for at-bats took him to the back fields at the Surprise Recreation Campus, where he went 2-for-5 in six at-bats in a Triple-A game.

Afterward, Jones ran through the possibilities: He could stay with the Rangers, either in the big leagues or at Triple-A Oklahoma City, or find a spot in another organization.

Hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo is what makes the Rangers attractive.

"These guys have the system," Jones said. "The hitting coach they’ve got, they work on the things they want to. We’ll see what happens."

Third baseman Michael Young still expects Jones to have a good season, no matter where he ends up playing.

"He and Rudy have worked hard together," Young said. "He’s not going to get a hold of Rudy’s system overnight, but he’s definitely got the ability, the experience and the know-how to master the system."

TRF
03-18-2009, 06:48 PM
.324 .419 .258 In 31 AB's this spring. Those aren't world beater numbers, but they are light years from where he was last year. Confidence is a big part of this. I bet he sticks with the Rangers. I doubt anyone else takes the chance.

He needs to tear up AAA for about a month to prove to every MLB team that he's back. It's his only option at this point.

jojo
03-18-2009, 07:23 PM
I think Jones is likely toast in the eyes of the industry. While spring training numbers are less than meaningless those are some pedestrian numbers given the competition he's faced during the early going. Texas isn't known for a blunt scouting eye either so if they're passing on him it's a bit of cause for pause.

Think about being an agent and trying to sell your client to a team when he has just opted out of his contract because he failed to make his former team's 40 man roster..... Lets put it this way, your call list doesn't begin with the Yankees.

Sea Ray
03-18-2009, 10:10 PM
Wow. I think he'll be lucky to spend the year in the major leagues. He got cut from his Venezuelan Winter Ball team...I'll go out on a limb and say his numbers will be worse than Willy Taveras'

I stand by these comments above. I'm not surprised that the Rangers do not want to put him on the Opening Day Roster.

Tom Servo
04-01-2009, 12:46 PM
Columbo at Work
Time for a little sleuthing or deduction, if you're up for it.

A Cincinnati scout has been hanging around the Rangers' camp for the past week, wondering what the Rangers' plans are for Andruw Jones. The Phillies are also interested.

Suddenly, the Rangers have an asset that they might be able to turn into something useful if they don't keep Jones themselves, though that's what manager Ron Washington would prefer.

But there are other developments of interest. It may be that Jones isn't the only thing that interest the Reds.

The Reds just traded shortstop Jeff Keppinger to the Astros. Keppinger was their starting shortstop. Alex Gonzalez, the Reds' other shortstop with any experience, has been sidelined for a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury.

The Rangers, looking to open up spots on their 40-man roster, have a young shortstop about to head back to Triple A Oklahoma City in Joaquin Arias. Might the Reds be interested in Arias, and could he garner a bullpen piece for the Rangers?

Interestingly enough, Arias will apparently make a surprise start at third Wednesday at Tempe against the Angels. Maybe somebody wants to see just how versatile he is after he's already shown he can play short and second.

Or maybe it's all just coincidence. In any case, it's fun to play detective sometimes. Let's see where the clues lead.

http://startelegramsports.typepad.com/foul_territory/2009/04/columbo-at-work.html

*BaseClogger*
04-01-2009, 02:21 PM
What do the minor league guys think of Arias?

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2009, 02:24 PM
What do the minor league guys think of Arias?

I made this post last night:

Count me in favor of Joaquin Arias. The numbers may not show it, but he's got some talent. Baseball America describes Arias as having plus range, a plus-plus arm, and a plus-plus runner. They also say he flashes above-average power in batting practice, though he has yet to translate it to game action. He did show signs of improvement with the bat in 2008, as he hit .296/.329/.421 - .750 while stealing 23 bases in 28 tries in Triple-A. He just turned 24 in September, so there is still time for his bat to improve. His biggest flaw right now is he's overaggressive at the plate. With his defense, if he could OPS around .730 or so he could be an asset at shortstop.

Hopefully Walt can work out a trade for him if he can be had cheaply.

Kc61
04-01-2009, 02:26 PM
Would you trade Bray for Arias?

*BaseClogger*
04-01-2009, 02:30 PM
I made this post last night:

Count me in favor of Joaquin Arias. The numbers may not show it, but he's got some talent. Baseball America describes Arias as having plus range, a plus-plus arm, and a plus-plus runner. They also say he flashes above-average power in batting practice, though he has yet to translate it to game action. He did show signs of improvement with the bat in 2008, as he hit .296/.329/.421 - .750 while stealing 23 bases in 28 tries in Triple-A. He just turned 24 in September, so there is still time for his bat to improve. His biggest flaw right now is he's overaggressive at the plate. With his defense, if he could OPS around .730 or so he could be an asset at shortstop.

Hopefully Walt can work out a trade for him if he can be had cheaply.

Thanks.

He doesn't walk much, but if he could hit .270 with great defense I wouldn't mind having him around. It sounds like he and Janish would be expected to have similar results with the bat, but Arias is ahead of Janish defensively.


Would you trade Bray for Arias?

Yes, yes I would. I like Bray but a shortstop is just more valuable than a relief pitcher...

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2009, 02:31 PM
Would you trade Bray for Arias?

I prefer to hang onto Bray and deal a minor leaguer or two for Arias. Maybe Sam Lecure and/or Robert Manuel for Arias.

*BaseClogger*
04-01-2009, 02:32 PM
I prefer to hang onto Bray and deal a minor leaguer or two for Arias. Maybe Sam Lecure and/or Robert Manuel for Arias.

Me too. But if Bray is the only guy they would take would you do the deal?

lollipopcurve
04-01-2009, 02:34 PM
Arias has had shoulder surgery. His arm is no longer plus-plus. My guess is that Janish's arm is stronger.

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2009, 02:35 PM
Me too. But if Bray is the only guy they would take would you do the deal?

Probably. I'd have to think about it. It all depends on if the Reds scouts think his bat will develop.

*BaseClogger*
04-01-2009, 02:36 PM
Arias has had shoulder surgery. His arm is no longer plus-plus. My guess is that Janish's arm is stronger.

That would completely change my perspective. Thanks for the info...

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2009, 02:40 PM
As long as his arm remains above average he should be okay. A great thing about having a plus-plus arm is you can lose some of that strength and still have a strong arm.

TRF
04-03-2009, 10:43 AM
Jones made the Rangers 25 man roster after posting .293 .328 .552 .880 this spring.

Team Clark
04-03-2009, 03:17 PM
Jones made the Rangers 25 man roster after posting .293 .328 .552 .880 this spring.

I had the opportunity to watch him on satellite a handful of times. He really has not improved all that much. He sees a breaking ball and his knees buckle. Kind of comical when you see it on consecutive pitches.

What I find most interesting is that a young pitcher would come in to a game and throw him 3 straight fastballs. Jones would time him and hit one hard. A veteran would pitch to him, throw a fastball away for a strike, and then 2 or 3 breaking balls. Jones was DONE. (Reggie Sanders of yesteryear.)

I guess we will see what happens during the regular season. He does have the great fortune to work with the best hitting instructor in all of baseball, Rudy Jaramillo.

thatcoolguy_22
05-14-2009, 01:59 AM
PA 71
BB% 22.9
K% 24.1
OPS 1.071

small sample size but his glove plays well in LF... Just saying


I was still in the SunDeck when this thread was popular but I wanted us to sign him while his value was so low. Huge potential that could be reached out of desperation. He is still listed as the Rangers 5th OF, could be a cheap trade. A couple middling prospects for a chance at paying andruw jones half a million and carry a .800+ bat in LF

Ron Madden
05-14-2009, 03:49 AM
I didn't want to sign Andruw Jones during the off season and I see no good reason to go after him now.

If I were Walt, I'd send McDonald down and call up Johnny Gomes.

JMHO

Caveat Emperor
05-14-2009, 09:08 AM
Honestly, I'd rather just wait and see what Drew Stubbs does.

thatcoolguy_22
05-14-2009, 10:50 AM
We're talking 1 year for a possible .850 bat in LF for 2009. Bring him in and if he isn't up to snuff DFA him. The ceiling in Jones' bat in 2009 is much higher than Gomes or Stubbs could ever hope for this year. Its just a little move that could pay off huge rewards in pushing this team into the playoffs. If it doesn't work you will be out maybe a Lincoln (insert irrelevant talent level pitcher here). I would be willing to take the gamble. The Reds can't afford to wait until July for this guy. By then his asking price will be through the roof (if his comeback does reach fruition)

from fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/stock-watch-54)



Andruw Jones, Rangers

Remember the state of Jones’ career one year ago? He was coming off an incredulously bad beginning with the Dodgers (.159/.282/.250 last April), on his way to an apocalyptic .234 wOBA and -17.9 Batting Runs in just 238 PA. It was a startlingly abrupt fall for a guy who had posted 3.6 Wins Above Replacement in a “down” 2007 season. Essentially given a settlement package by the Dodgers to leave LA and never, ever return, Jones has crushed the ball thus far with the Rangers. The corpulent out-maker of ‘08 is nowhere to be found, as the 32 year-old has a .507 wOBA (.333/.500/.718) in 52 plate appearances. With Jones channeling his inner Barry Bonds, David Murphy getting in touch with his inner Juan Pierre (.260 wOBA) and Josh Hamilton hitting the DL (finding his inner Milton Bradley?), Andruw should definitely be on your radar.

REDREAD
05-14-2009, 11:50 AM
PA 71
I wanted us to sign him while his value was so low. Huge potential that could be reached out of desperation. He is still listed as the Rangers 5th OF, could be a cheap trade. A couple middling prospects for a chance at paying andruw jones half a million and carry a .800+ bat in LF

Yeah, that would've been a nice risk. I kind of wanted to invite him to spring training too, although I wasn't lobbying that hard. Makes more sense than paying Gomes almost the same amount of money to play in AAA.

I don't think the Rangers are going to trade him cheap, even now. That ship has sailed, oh well. Good call on Jones though.

RichRed
07-09-2009, 10:54 AM
I guess we will see what happens during the regular season. He does have the great fortune to work with the best hitting instructor in all of baseball, Rudy Jaramillo.

Andruw Jones hit 3 HRs last night and now has a line of .250/.348/.581 with 14 HRs and 34 RBIs in 187 PAs.

Small sample, or has Rudy done it again?

jojo
07-09-2009, 12:49 PM
Andruw Jones hit 3 HRs last night and now has a line of .250/.348/.581 with 14 HRs and 34 RBIs in 187 PAs.

Small sample, or has Rudy done it again?

It's getting close to time to start shaking a few scouts' hands. And Texas has some good ones....