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View Full Version : A question from out in leftfield.....



jojo
01-01-2009, 05:27 PM
The Reds have what most fans consider a vacancy in left field this off season. Entering the free agent market there were several "big name" left fielders available (arguably the biggest crop of namers in several seasons).

Why haven't the Reds filled this apparent hole yet?

****I decided that given the options that would've been in the poll, some people might've wanted to select multiple options so in lieu of options that I've contrived, what do you think the reason is??????

Spitball
01-01-2009, 05:42 PM
Moises Alou (42) - Old and oft injured
Garret Anderson (37) - Ditto
Milton Bradley (31) - Often injured head case in a young clubhouse
Emil Brown (34) Been off for a couple of years
Pat Burrell (32) - Left handed bat, too expensive, Dunn-lite
Adam Dunn (29) - Unfortunately, time to turn the page
Cliff Floyd (36) -Often injured left handed bat
Luis Gonzalez (41) -Older than old
Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)- May happen
Gabe Kapler (33) -Often injured
Craig Monroe (32) -Hmmf
Jay Payton (36) -Fifth outfielder at this point
Manny Ramirez (37) - Waiting on three expensive years
So Taguchi (39) -Old extra part type

Maybe the Reds figure there just isn't a smooth fit out there.

camisadelgolf
01-01-2009, 05:52 PM
Burrell is a right-handed hitter, and Bradley is rumored to have signed with the Cubs. It's also worth exploring the possibility of converting a center or right fielder to left field.

RedEye
01-01-2009, 06:02 PM
Although I don't really like it, I have a feeling that Walt will end up signing Pat Burrell. If Dunn is not an option and Bradley is with the Cubs, he's the one that bothers me the least.

RedEye
01-01-2009, 06:03 PM
Add Pat and Rocco to the mix in the next few weeks and I might actually be able to pry some optimism from the jaws of my despair. Might.

Falls City Beer
01-01-2009, 06:09 PM
They're going el cheapo with a patchwork approach. Until the cavalry arrives.

Or a trade including one of their starters can be made.

*BaseClogger*
01-01-2009, 06:11 PM
The FO and the fanbase have unrealistic expectations. We want a player who is better than Adam Dunn, but will come cheaper. Well, all the good players cost money. And all the cheap players have warts. But without making a decision, Jocketty is committing a far worse sin. Sitting on his hands is the worst thing he could do. The Reds will go nowhere with Chris Dickerson or Norris Hopper in LF. That's no OF depth!

I think the best thing they can do is to go ahead and pay the price for Nick Swisher if he's available (an important factor in it's own right). He's a guy both "sides" can agree on; the old school likes his grinder attitude and the new school likes his OPS.

Swisher has many attractive features:

-He won't be cheap but his $ price isn't outrageous. He's set to make $5.3M in 09, $6.75M in 10, $9M in 11, and a $10.25M club option in 12 with a $1M buyout. That means Swisher would only be 31 years old in the last year of control including the option. Now, I know some might think he makes too much at the end of that contract. But with the way the market is trending, especially if the economy improves, I expect $10.25M to be a bargain in 2012.

-He will only be 28 years old in 2009.

-He can't handle CF, but he is athletic enough to play the corner OF effectively. He has a career +6.3 UZR in LF and +14.2 UZR in RF. He's also fair at 1B.

-He is a career .244/.354/.451 and most of it was spent in Oakland's cavernous park. Despite his dissapointing 2008, Swisher still has all of the skills that have made him valuable throughout his career: his .113 isoD was higher than his career isoD of .110. His isoP of .191 was within reach of his career .207 isoP. The drop in isoP can likely be explained by his decline in doubles from 5.5 doubles per 100 AB in his career to 4.2 doubles per 100 AB in 2008. It's easy to see the problem in 2008 was BA; Swisher hit only .219. But why did the BA fall so precipitously? His pitch recognition skillls didn't decline. He still hit the ball hard. His LD% went up and his GB% and FB% were consistent. He didn't even strike out much more than usual (25.5 K per 100 AB for his career and 27.2 K per 100 AB in 2008).

Nick Swisher is younger than he who shall not be named and his overall package is comparable. It would cost prospects to acquire him, but his contract is very friendly. I would part with a couple of good prospects to acquire Nick Swisher...

Falls City Beer
01-01-2009, 06:24 PM
Add Pat and Rocco to the mix in the next few weeks and I might actually be able to pry some optimism from the jaws of my despair. Might.

That's a sizeable hunk of change getting lumped on to the payroll. I wouldn't look for that anytime soon.

JaxRed
01-01-2009, 06:43 PM
Holy cow, I had no idea Swisher's contract was so bad. The Reds would be nuts to trade for him.

RedEye
01-01-2009, 07:31 PM
Nick Swisher and Rocco Baldelli would both make a lot of sense for this team. There is no way WJ will acquire either of them.

SteelSD
01-01-2009, 07:40 PM
Holy cow, I had no idea Swisher's contract was so bad. The Reds would be nuts to trade for him.

What do you think players get paid nowadays?

Swisher has a career adjusted OPS+ of 112 and even after an off-year (caused by an extremely low .251 BABIP) has put up a three-year OPS of .817 (including two 120+ aOPS seasons). The guy's an excellent bounce-back candidate as both his 2008 IsoD and IsoP numbers were in line with his career norms. That's certainly worth 7.02M per season over the next three years and should Swisher not be worth 10.25M in 2012, the 1M buyout pushes that to an average of only 7.35M. Nothing at all wrong with that contract.

Johnny Footstool
01-01-2009, 07:44 PM
Swisher would be a good LF target at this point.

He would have been a bad CF target, though. But I guess Willy T. and his alleged "defense" have locked down that position now.

jojo
01-01-2009, 08:03 PM
I think Swisher would be a great target.

blumj
01-01-2009, 08:16 PM
They should have grabbed him when the White Sox were selling him, then. The Yankees are smart enough to know he's a better player than Xavier Nady.

Falls City Beer
01-01-2009, 08:29 PM
Nick Swisher and Rocco Baldelli would both make a lot of sense for this team. There is no way WJ will acquire either of them.

I'm not sure I share your pessimism. Nor do I share the enthusiasm for either Baldelli or Swisher. They're fine, but they've both got red flags attached to them.

jojo
01-01-2009, 08:38 PM
I'm not sure I share your pessimism. Nor do I share the enthusiasm for either Baldelli or Swisher. They're fine, but they've both got red flags attached to them.

Baldelli is an injury risk for sure but what red flag do you see with Swisher?

Spitball
01-01-2009, 08:41 PM
After an off year, Swisher cost the Yankees 24 year old Jeff Marquez, who had a 4.69 ERA with 33Ks and 24BBs in 80 2/3 innings in AAA. I don't know much about him but 33 Ks in 80 2/3 isn't impressive. What would they expect in return?

I'd rather buy low with Swisher coming off a down season than go after Nady coming off a career year.

Will M
01-01-2009, 08:50 PM
After an off year, Swisher cost the Yankees 24 year old Jeff Marquez, who had a 4.69 ERA with 33Ks and 24BBs in 80 2/3 innings in AAA. I don't know much about him but 33 Ks in 80 2/3 isn't impressive. What would they expect in return?

I'd rather buy low with Swisher coming off a down season than go after Nady coming off a career year.

depends.

Nady has appeal because he only has one year left on his deal. Dorn, Frazier, Alonso etc will all be closer to the bigs (or here) in 2010.

Swisher has appeal if you believe last year was an off year or bad luck and his numbers from 2009-2011 will be a lot better. if not he clogs LF when the above players arrive.

Falls City Beer
01-01-2009, 08:59 PM
Baldelli is an injury risk for sure but what red flag do you see with Swisher?

I don't like players who see their power tank when moving from a pitcher's park to a hitter's.

edabbs44
01-01-2009, 09:08 PM
I think WJ is laying in the weeds, waiting to get a bargain on one of the name guys left out there. If the bargain isn't there, he goes with what he has.

RedsManRick
01-01-2009, 09:10 PM
I don't like players who see their power tank when moving from a pitcher's park to a hitter's.

His power was almost the exact same in 2008 vs 2007 (ISO of .191 vs .193). The drop in SLG was because of a loss of singles and doubles. Given that he put up a 20.9 LD%, that screams BABIP fluke. Bring his batting average back up to where it would have been with a normal BABIP and he's right back at .255/.370/.460. There were no signs of skill loss in 08, just worse results. He's a great buy low candidate. The contract is hardly onerous unless people really think we're going to get a plus bat for pennies.

SteelSD
01-01-2009, 09:11 PM
I don't like players who see their power tank when moving from a pitcher's park to a hitter's.

Swisher's power didn't tank. His 2007 IsoP was .193 and it was .191 in 2008. His HR rate actually went up, which helped compensate a bit for a lower Doubles rate.

Basically, the major portion of the difference between the 2007 and 2008 versions of Swisher is missing Singles due to a drop in his BABIP from .308 to .251. That produced a negative BA variance versus 2007 and produced a lower SLG, but the power component was still there.

Falls City Beer
01-01-2009, 09:15 PM
His power was almost the exact same in 2008 vs 2007 (ISO of .191 vs .193). The drop in SLG was because of a loss of singles and doubles. Given that he put up a 20.9 LD%, that screams BABIP fluke. Bring his batting average back up to where it would have been with a normal BABIP and he's right back at .255/.370/.460. There were no signs of skill loss in 08, just worse results. He's a great buy low candidate. The contract is hardly onerous unless people really think we're going to get a plus bat for pennies.

Fair enough. The Yankees ain't trading him. The point is moot.

RedsManRick
01-01-2009, 09:32 PM
Fair enough. The Yankees ain't trading him. The point is moot.

I tend to think you're right in that they intend on holding on to him. But I think they will trade one of the four corner OF/DH types: Matsui, Nady, Swisher, and Damon; my guess is that's the order they'd prefer to deal them. If it's February and they haven't been able to dump Matsui (on Seattle or SanFran most likely), I think they push pretty hard to move Nady/Swish.

jojo
01-01-2009, 10:02 PM
And I think Swisher vs Taveras is an irksome thing. Both were available (though I guess it's debatable whether the Reds had a legit crack at Swisher).

As Steel and Rick point out, Swisher is an prime upside bet. I think the original Taveras thread had many voices pointing to why Taveras is essentially a very poor "upside" bet.

Neither guy should have been considered cost prohibitive from a salary standpoint.

The Reds targeted Taveras. I don't get it really. It's like paying $40+M for a bullpen arm without a seriously compelling reason. To me it's the kind of thing that makes me seriously skeptical of a FO.

SteelSD
01-01-2009, 11:03 PM
And I think Swisher vs Taveras is an irksome thing. Both were available (though I guess it's debatable whether the Reds had a legit crack at Swisher).

For me, the problem is that if the Reds don't have a shot of trading for Nick Swisher, then they don't have the kind of prospects that would project contention any time soon.

mth123
01-01-2009, 11:12 PM
I think WJ is laying in the weeds, waiting to get a bargain on one of the name guys left out there. If the bargain isn't there, he goes with what he has.

I think this as well, but I think its out of necessity. I'm guessing the economy put the brakes on the budget. If prices fall enough, the Reds will be in on some guys. The issue then will be whether or not anyone will want to come to Cincy when the money is so low. They may get a one year shot with a guy wanting to bump his numbers in GABP. They still have lots of numbers in 5th starter candidates, bullpen candidates and limited upside minor leaguers who project to major league roles (though impact level is probably limited to just a couple guys). They should still be able to make a deal.

As far as the Swisher talk goes, I think he's a great choice. I love the fact that he is not a rental player. The Yankees need bullpen help. David Weathers for Swisher would be perfect for the budget and the Reds ability to backfill. The Yanks got Swisher for a mediocre prospect and Wilson Betemit. Given the lack of established options in front of Marte and Mariano, I'm guessing they would have been happy to deal Betemit and Marquez for Weathers.

mth123
01-01-2009, 11:13 PM
For me, the problem is that if the Reds don't have a shot of trading for Nick Swisher, then they don't have the kind of prospects that would project contention any time soon.

Yankees probably don't want prospects.

Highlifeman21
01-01-2009, 11:14 PM
For me, the problem is that if the Reds don't have a shot of trading for Nick Swisher, then they don't have the kind of prospects that would project contention any time soon.

Who's actually ready to positively contribute at the MLB level?

Homer Bailey?
Chris Dickerson?
Drew Stubbs?
Yonder Alonso?
Josh Roenicke?
Adam Rosales?
Ryan Hanigan?
Matt Maloney?
Todd Frazier?
Neftali Soto?
Ramon Ramirez?
Danny Dorn?
Devin Mesoraco?
Daryl Thompson?
Chris Valaika?

Who is gonna help us in 2009 or 2010 either by playing for the MLB club, or by getting traded for something that will help the MLB club?

*BaseClogger*
01-01-2009, 11:14 PM
Yankees probably don't want prospects.

I think they want bullpen help. I'd give them Burton and a C prospect or Roenicke and a B prospect for Swisher...

Highlifeman21
01-01-2009, 11:15 PM
Yankees probably don't want prospects.

They certainly aren't getting younger.

I mean I guess they could continue to overpay for FAs, but eventually that has to backfire, right?

mth123
01-01-2009, 11:21 PM
They certainly aren't getting younger.

I mean I guess they could continue to overpay for FAs, but eventually that has to backfire, right?

Not with their money. The rules are different. Any spot that doesn't already have a superstar, already has a prospect or two. CF? They have Gardner and Melky. They probably want a vet. Back of the rotation? They have Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, they probably want a vet. Catcher? They have Jesus Montero, they probably want a vet. Bullpen? They have guys like Wheeler, Cox , maybe Sanchez etc. and a bunch of unprovens in front of Marte and Rivera. They probably want a vet. Weathers is the guy to deal, but I'd bet the Reds would never consider it.

Highlifeman21
01-01-2009, 11:25 PM
Not with their money. The rules are different. Any spot that doesn't already have a superstar, already has a prospect or two. CF? They have Gardner and Melky. They probably want a vet. Back of the rotation? They have Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, they probably want a vet. Catcher? They have Jesus Montero, they probably want a vet. Bullpen? They have guys like Wheeler, Cox , maybe Sanchez etc. and a bunch of unprovens in front of Marte and Rivera. They probably want a vet. Weathers is the guy to deal, but I'd bet the Reds would never consider it.

Weathers is the guy to deal regardless of the team, or the target, IMO.

He should have left this roster 2+ years ago.

AmarilloRed
01-02-2009, 12:51 AM
I think Walt has been waiting for the price on LFers to come down as time went on. Giambi and Abreu were recently rumored candidates to receive 1 year contracts. Jocketty is waiting to get the best deal he can get.

Topcat
01-02-2009, 05:34 AM
The Reds have what most fans consider a vacancy in left field this off season. Entering the free agent market there were several "big name" left fielders available (arguably the biggest crop of namers in several seasons).

Why haven't the Reds filled this apparent hole yet?

****I decided that given the options that would've been in the poll, some people might've wanted to select multiple options so in lieu of options that I've contrived, what do you think the reason is??????

JoJo the only conclusion I can come to in regards to this off season is that our Reds are going to deal prospects for some now talent. Might be a truly prudent move when you consider the new economic climate that is about to come.

jojo
01-02-2009, 11:54 AM
I think they want bullpen help. I'd give them Burton and a C prospect or Roenicke and a B prospect for Swisher...

Trade them Cordero for Swisher and some of their prospects (like maybe a Jackson or some high leverage/smoke potential for the pen like Melancon, de la Rosa, or Sanchez)... :cool:

Falls City Beer
01-02-2009, 01:14 PM
Trade them Cordero for Swisher and some of their prospects (like maybe a Jackson or some high leverage/smoke potential for the pen like Melancon, de la Rosa, or Sanchez)... :cool:

There was a time when a trade like that was possible in MLB, but I think those days are gone.

WebScorpion
01-02-2009, 01:31 PM
I think Walt is doing the right thing. With such an overabundance of options, why overpay? Wait for prices to drop and give your best bid to the guy(s) you want. Hang in there, the hot stove is warming up slowly this season. ;)

Caveat Emperor
01-02-2009, 01:44 PM
They're going el cheapo with a patchwork approach. Until the cavalry arrives.

Or a trade including one of their starters can be made.

Which I don't understand, because the bats in the Reds minor league system are uniformly unimpressive. Hopefully Yonder Alonso is the real deal because other than him it ain't pretty until you hit A-ball.

Not exactly the cavalry that inspires confidence for the future.

camisadelgolf
01-02-2009, 01:58 PM
Which I don't understand, because the bats in the Reds minor league system are uniformly unimpressive. Hopefully Yonder Alonso is the real deal because other than him it ain't pretty until you hit A-ball.

Not exactly the cavalry that inspires confidence for the future.

Uniformly unimpressive?
potential everyday players:
Chris Valaika
Danny Dorn
Drew Stubbs
Juan Francisco
Todd Frazier

And not that these guys are expected to make a huge difference, but they could always bust out and surprise people. All of these players probably would have been top-five prospects during the Bowden era. Thank goodness the tides have changed:
Adam Rosales
Paul Janish
Chris Heisey
Sean Henry
Ryan Hanigan
Chris Dickerson
Craig Tatum
Danny Richar

. . . and that's without getting to A-ball. I'm also not including the several pitching prospects, the Reds' biggest strength at these levels. Oh, yeah, and the Reds' biggest prospect, Yonder Alonso. Thanks to the minor league depth, there's plenty to look forward to over the next few years.

Caveat Emperor
01-02-2009, 03:12 PM
1. Chris Valaika - Find him a position before you start penciling him in as a future starter. I'd also like to see him post decent numbers in AA before I start making any judgments

2. Juan Francisco - Severely OB-challenged (Career: .303, 2008: .303) and apparently has never met a moving baseball he didn't feel compelled to swing at (19 BB / 123 K in '08). He's the second coming of Wily Mo Pena right now, and I'd hardly call that starting material.

3. Drew Stubbs -- Somehow managed to post a ~.030 OPS gain each time he was promoted a level (.772 A+ / .802 AA / .834 AAA) -- we'll see if that holds with a full year at AAA. His power hasn't developed at all with the wood bat (see: 25 HR in 3 years of minor ball), so he'll need to continue to OB at a .360+ clip in order to maintain good value offensively as a starting CF. Again, we'll see if he can do that against advanced competition in Louisville.

4. Daniel Dorn -- Profiles to platoon-player.

5. Todd Frazier -- Subject of major lovefest on the minor league boards, but saw major production decrease with the promotion to high-A ball. He'll probably need at least 2 more years before he's ready for the majors, likely spending this year at A+/AA, 2010 at AAA and ready for a late-season 2010 callup. That is IF he manages to hit now that he's in more appropriate age-line after being older coming out of college.

Here's a the bottom line -- none of these guys would be a centerpiece player in a deal to acquire a good ML ballplayer. They all have upside, but none of them projects as anything close to a sure-thing in the majors. Unimpressive may have been a harsh word, but I think "impressive" would've been equally inappropriate.

jojo
01-02-2009, 04:04 PM
There was a time when a trade like that was possible in MLB, but I think those days are gone.

I think the Yanks would try and sell high by puffing up their guys but really Jackson is projecting more as an everyday player than a stud. While that's pretty valuable in the grand scheme of things (especially for a team like the Reds), how valuable is it to the Yanks? He's got "Yankee trade bait" stitched on the back of his jersey IMHO. The other guys are relief prospects and frankly, they shouldn't really be classified as untouchable by anyone because, well, they're pen prospects.

I could see the Yanks sending Swisher and a "prospect" or two for a "Cordero".

At least such a trade would fit the general parameters of a trade the Yanks would likely be willing to pull off (i.e leverage a "prospect" to fix a hole in the 25 man roster) given what they've already invested this offseason in response to missing the playoffs and given the competition they face next season to make the playoffs.

I could see the Reds and Yanks being a good fit as trade partners.

Also, just in case there was any ambuiguity in the original post, I wasn't arguing the Yanks would likely trade all four of the minor leaguers that happened to be named in the post.

jojo
01-02-2009, 04:07 PM
1. Chris Valaika - Find him a position before you start penciling him in as a future starter. I'd also like to see him post decent numbers in AA before I start making any judgments

2. Juan Francisco - Severely OB-challenged (Career: .303, 2008: .303) and apparently has never met a moving baseball he didn't feel compelled to swing at (19 BB / 123 K in '08). He's the second coming of Wily Mo Pena right now, and I'd hardly call that starting material.

3. Drew Stubbs -- Somehow managed to post a ~.030 OPS gain each time he was promoted a level (.772 A+ / .802 AA / .834 AAA) -- we'll see if that holds with a full year at AAA. His power hasn't developed at all with the wood bat (see: 25 HR in 3 years of minor ball), so he'll need to continue to OB at a .360+ clip in order to maintain good value offensively as a starting CF. Again, we'll see if he can do that against advanced competition in Louisville.

4. Daniel Dorn -- Profiles to platoon-player.

5. Todd Frazier -- Subject of major lovefest on the minor league boards, but saw major production decrease with the promotion to high-A ball. He'll probably need at least 2 more years before he's ready for the majors, likely spending this year at A+/AA, 2010 at AAA and ready for a late-season 2010 callup. That is IF he manages to hit now that he's in more appropriate age-line after being older coming out of college.

Here's a the bottom line -- none of these guys would be a centerpiece player in a deal to acquire a good ML ballplayer. They all have upside, but none of them projects as anything close to a sure-thing in the majors. Unimpressive may have been a harsh word, but I think "impressive" would've been equally inappropriate.

I think this is a pretty fair characterization. The Reds system is not a scrap heep. It's pretty solid. It's just not really top heavy at the moment though.

camisadelgolf
01-02-2009, 04:17 PM
1. Chris Valaika - Find him a position before you start penciling him in as a future starter. I'd also like to see him post decent numbers in AA before I start making any judgments

2. Juan Francisco - Severely OB-challenged (Career: .303, 2008: .303) and apparently has never met a moving baseball he didn't feel compelled to swing at (19 BB / 123 K in '08). He's the second coming of Wily Mo Pena right now, and I'd hardly call that starting material.

3. Drew Stubbs -- Somehow managed to post a ~.030 OPS gain each time he was promoted a level (.772 A+ / .802 AA / .834 AAA) -- we'll see if that holds with a full year at AAA. His power hasn't developed at all with the wood bat (see: 25 HR in 3 years of minor ball), so he'll need to continue to OB at a .360+ clip in order to maintain good value offensively as a starting CF. Again, we'll see if he can do that against advanced competition in Louisville.

4. Daniel Dorn -- Profiles to platoon-player.

5. Todd Frazier -- Subject of major lovefest on the minor league boards, but saw major production decrease with the promotion to high-A ball. He'll probably need at least 2 more years before he's ready for the majors, likely spending this year at A+/AA, 2010 at AAA and ready for a late-season 2010 callup. That is IF he manages to hit now that he's in more appropriate age-line after being older coming out of college.

Here's a the bottom line -- none of these guys would be a centerpiece player in a deal to acquire a good ML ballplayer. They all have upside, but none of them projects as anything close to a sure-thing in the majors. Unimpressive may have been a harsh word, but I think "impressive" would've been equally inappropriate.

Chris Valaika has a position--it's second base. However, his range has been better than expected, so the Reds have been giving him an extended tryout at shortstop. If he manages to be a viable shortstop, it increases his worth even more.

Juan Francisco is, yes, very OBP-challenged, and I'm not too optimistic about him personally, but Alfonso Soriano manages to be a great player despite his unwillingness to take a walk. Plate discipline is one of the last skills that develops, and as Francisco's power develops, my guess is that pitchers will be staying away from him even more, increasing the walks.

Drew Stubbs doesn't necessarily need to hit for power. He gets on base at a very good rate, and he plays some of the best defensive center field in all of baseball. If his power develops, that's just a bonus.

Granted, Danny Dorn struggles against left-handers, but he doesn't face left-handers enough to completely write him off as a non-impact player. A Dorn/Heisey platoon could potentially be very, very good.

Todd Frazier had a major decrease? Of course he did. He was OPSing over 1.000! :D After that, he OPSed over .800 in the most extreme pitcher's park in all of minor league baseball, which isn't exactly struggling. A dropoff was to be expected. I'm not writing the guy in as a perennial All-Star, but it's certainly very possible.

To say that opposing teams wouldn't accept any of those guys as the centerpiece of a major trade is just ridiculous. At least a few of them have superstar potential, and all of them have performed up to this point. I don't think the Padres would do a straight-up, Peavy-for-Frazier deal, but if you offer one of those players above in a trade, you're going to be able to get a very good baseball player in return.

jojo
01-02-2009, 04:28 PM
Chris Valaika has a position--it's second base. However, his range has been better than expected, so the Reds have been giving him an extended tryout at shortstop. If he manages to be a viable shortstop, it increases his worth even more.

Juan Francisco is, yes, very OBP-challenged, and I'm not too optimistic about him personally, but Alfonso Soriano manages to be a great player despite his unwillingness to take a walk. Plate discipline is one of the last skills that develops, and as Francisco's power develops, my guess is that pitchers will be staying away from him even more, increasing the walks.

Drew Stubbs doesn't necessarily need to hit for power. He gets on base at a very good rate, and he plays some of the best defensive center field in all of baseball. If his power develops, that's just a bonus.

Granted, Danny Dorn struggles against left-handers, but he doesn't face left-handers enough to completely write him off as a non-impact player. A Dorn/Heisey platoon could potentially be very, very good.

Todd Frazier had a major decrease? Of course he did. He was OPSing over 1.000! :D After that, he OPSed over .800 in the most extreme pitcher's park in all of minor league baseball, which isn't exactly struggling. A dropoff was to be expected. I'm not writing the guy in as a perennial All-Star, but it's certainly very possible.

To say that opposing teams wouldn't accept any of those guys as the centerpiece of a major trade is just ridiculous. At least a few of them have superstar potential, and all of them have performed up to this point. I don't think the Padres would do a straight-up, Peavy-for-Frazier deal, but if you offer one of those players above in a trade, you're going to be able to get a very good baseball player in return.

Just playing devil's advocate, are you arguing Todd Frazier could net a very good major league player straight up (I know the definition of very good probably needs to be defined)?

mth123
01-02-2009, 04:28 PM
Swisher was just traded for Wilson Betemit and Jeff Marquez. The market seems to have been established (its not like he's played a game to change his value since then) and would suggest that the Reds wouldn't have to deal a stud to get him. I think he's a reasonable target that should not require a centerpiece to acquire. I'd guess a couple of guys to re-inforce some weak areas on the Yankee roster would do it. David Weathers seems like the ideal choice since it addresses a yankee need, holds the Reds payroll to a reasonable number and the team has a number of candidates to backfill for the pen.

Seems like an old fashioned baseball trade where two teams deal excess pieces to address needs with the money (at least for 2009) being roughly equal. The Reds would only take on about $1 Million to this year's budget.

OnBaseMachine
01-02-2009, 04:42 PM
5. Todd Frazier -- Subject of major lovefest on the minor league boards, but saw major production decrease with the promotion to high-A ball. He'll probably need at least 2 more years before he's ready for the majors, likely spending this year at A+/AA, 2010 at AAA and ready for a late-season 2010 callup. That is IF he manages to hit now that he's in more appropriate age-line after being older coming out of college.


Major lovefest on these boards? Yeah, and from scouts and minor league websites also.

The FSL is a very pitcher friendly league. And there is zero chance Frazier begins 2009 in High-A. He'll be in Double-A with a chance to reach Cincy in September. Frazier posted the 9th highest OPS in the FSL, and a few of the guys ahead of him were non-prospects. He also went on to post a .922 OPS in the pitcher friendly Hawaiian Winter League. Frazier is a much better prospect than you give him credit for.

dougdirt
01-02-2009, 04:53 PM
4. Daniel Dorn -- Profiles to platoon-player.


Yeah, Dorn is the same guy who projects as a platoon player with a career Minor League OPS of .915 and his OPS in AA over the last year has been a .944 OPS guy with 29 HR, 57 walks and 107 K's in 495 PA. Yeah, he may not hit lefties all that well, but even with that, he has still absolutely crushed the baseball and projects to be 400+ PA of very good hitting in the majors. If he had Brandon Phillips platoon splits, I would be more concerned. He doesn't. He strikes out and walks at the exact same rate as he does against both type of pitchers and a career .333 OBP (with a .109 IsoD) against lefties.

camisadelgolf
01-02-2009, 05:26 PM
Just playing devil's advocate, are you arguing Todd Frazier could net a very good major league player straight up (I know the definition of very good probably needs to be defined)?

That's not what I'm directly arguing, but I do think it is very possible.

Vada Pinson Fan
01-02-2009, 06:31 PM
I think WJ is laying in the weeds, waiting to get a bargain on one of the name guys left out there. If the bargain isn't there, he goes with what he has.

We need the St. Louis version of Walt Jocketty to reappear a.s.a.p. and not the one "laying in the weeds, waiting to get a bargain...". I keep waiting for a solid Jocketty move and then get a window of opportunity from Selig to negotiate a longer contract with Jermaine Dye. Dye is the player that would inspire Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce and hopefully Willy Taveras. We need a guy who knows how to win and consistently puts up substantial stats. Dye is the closest player out there, that I can think of that's also available, with an attitude redolent of Greg Vaughn that can get the best out of teammates.

Short of Dye, I'm in the Nady camp and not Steve Swisher's. I watched Swisher many, many times on WGN last year and it wasn't pretty and that's being kind. He looked totally lost and a quick exit from Chicago ensued. I wasn't a fan of Swisher's when he was with the A's. Then if Jocketty acquires him and you put him in a largely unfamiliar league, you've got a problem. Guys that have a down year where the bottom just about drops out scares the heck out me. Too many variables to what may have caused it. I would always go after the guy that hits his average plus or minus 10 or so points while providing the same consistency with RBI's and HR"s. Then I pay the price to acquire this kind of player. It takes the Reds management (historically since 1980-) too long to know what kind of player they have.

Jpup
01-02-2009, 06:32 PM
Cordero is not going to New York. They have some guy named Mo and Cordero has a no trade clause.

membengal
01-02-2009, 07:23 PM
Teams like the Yankees don't blink sometimes at paying that kind of coin for even a set-up guy.

Cordero would likely run, not walk, to waive his no-trade to pitch for a team as loaded as that one is.

I don't see either of those things being deal-breakers, should each team actually desire to try and work something out.

blumj
01-02-2009, 07:33 PM
Teams like the Yankees don't blink sometimes at paying that kind of coin for even a set-up guy.

Cordero would likely run, not walk, to waive his no-trade to pitch for a team as loaded as that one is.

I don't see either of those things being deal-breakers, should each team actually desire to try and work something out.
Thing is, I can't see the Yankees having that desire. If they want a reliever, they can sign a free agent. If they're willing to trade prospects for something, they could go after Peavy and move Joba back to the pen. If they want to make room in the OF/DH, they could send cash with Matsui or take the best offer they can get for Nady. Why trade Swisher when it doesn't make their team better than things they can easily do without trading Swisher?

jojo
01-02-2009, 07:40 PM
Yeah, Dorn is the same guy who projects as a platoon player with a career Minor League OPS of .915 and his OPS in AA over the last year has been a .944 OPS guy with 29 HR, 57 walks and 107 K's in 495 PA. Yeah, he may not hit lefties all that well, but even with that, he has still absolutely crushed the baseball and projects to be 400+ PA of very good hitting in the majors. If he had Brandon Phillips platoon splits, I would be more concerned. He doesn't. He strikes out and walks at the exact same rate as he does against both type of pitchers and a career .333 OBP (with a .109 IsoD) against lefties.

May not hit lefties all that well? I'd hate to see a guy who can't hit them at all. :cool:

All kidding aside, it's kind of hard for me to get excited about Dorn. Leftfielders who only do well from one side of the plate and aren't particularly useful defenders aren't rare gems. He's got alot to overcome IMHO in order to be an everyday player for a contending team.

mth123
01-02-2009, 09:45 PM
Dorn will be Matt Stairs. That's valuable while its cheap.

Big Klu
01-02-2009, 09:50 PM
Teams like the Yankees don't blink sometimes at paying that kind of coin for even a set-up guy.

Cordero would likely run, not walk, to waive his no-trade to pitch for a team as loaded as that one is.

I don't see either of those things being deal-breakers, should each team actually desire to try and work something out.

Cordero isn't going to waive his no-trade clause for anything except major coin--especially if he is going to a club where he won't be able to rack up the saves that would ensure a big payday for his next contract. If the Reds want to trade him, they are first going to have to give him a raise and/or an extension.

mth123
01-02-2009, 09:51 PM
Cordero isn't going to waive his no-trade clause for anything except major coin--especially if he is going to a club where he won't be able to rack up the saves that would ensure a big payday for his next contract. If the Reds want to trade him, they are first going to have to give him a raise and/or an extension.

Exactly. Besides, Cordero might be pricey, but he's a clear head of the committee. Weathers is more replaceable.

camisadelgolf
01-02-2009, 10:04 PM
Dorn will be Matt Stairs. That's valuable while its cheap.

That's valuable even when the player is well beyond arbitration years.