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Raisor
01-02-2009, 04:47 PM
Mlbtraderumors.com


2:40pm: MLB.com's Chris Haft splashes some cold water on the KPIX-TV rumor. His sources say recent reports linking the Giants to Manny are overblown. The Dodgers may be the only truly interested team currently. Haft says the Giants are looking to add a corner infield bat instead (they've been linked to Edwin Encarnacion and Jorge Cantu, among others).

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 04:49 PM
EE is now a corner OF bat?

Raisor
01-02-2009, 04:50 PM
EE is now a corner OF bat?

it says corner infield bat.

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 04:52 PM
it says corner infield bat.

I never claimed to know how to read...

HumnHilghtFreel
01-02-2009, 04:52 PM
I'd love to be able get Sanchez from them somehow if the talks between the two are legit.

Raisor
01-02-2009, 04:53 PM
I never claimed to know how to read...

Good.

:thumbup:

dougdirt
01-02-2009, 04:54 PM
EE is now a corner OF bat?

He should be....

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 04:55 PM
He should be....

Who plays 3B for the Reds in 2009 then?

OnBaseMachine
01-02-2009, 04:55 PM
The only way I trade him is if I get Jonathan Sanchez in return.

membengal
01-02-2009, 04:55 PM
Juan Castro.

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 04:56 PM
Juan Castro.

Mentioning that name might bring Galactus outta hiding...

Raisor
01-02-2009, 04:59 PM
Mentioning that name might bring Galactus outta hiding...

http://www.gamerevolution.com/images/misc/galactus.jpg

dougdirt
01-02-2009, 05:00 PM
Who plays 3B for the Reds in 2009 then?

Same person that plays LF.... TBA.

Spitball
01-02-2009, 05:04 PM
This is from MLBTRADERUMORS.COM

2:40pm: MLB.com's Chris Haft splashes some cold water on the KPIX-TV rumor. His sources say recent reports linking the Giants to Manny are overblown. The Dodgers may be the only truly interested team currently. Haft says the Giants are looking to add a corner infield bat instead (they've been linked to Edwin Encarnacion and Jorge Cantu in the past, among others).

I believe the Giants are currently looking seriously into Crede.

Ron Madden
01-02-2009, 05:05 PM
The only way I trade him is if I get Jonathan Sanchez in return.

Ditto.

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 05:08 PM
Same person that plays LF.... TBA.

or is it his cousin, TBD?

Spitball
01-02-2009, 05:12 PM
If the Reds can get a Wigginton, Crede or Beltre, I'd trade Encarnacion for a major need. Otherwise, I'd rather move him off third and keep his bat.

camisadelgolf
01-02-2009, 05:23 PM
This would be a great idea. We could trade what little offense we have to eliminate any false hopes of competing in 2009.

mth123
01-02-2009, 05:49 PM
Sanchez and Burris for EdE and a prospect.

Sign Wiggy.

nate
01-02-2009, 06:51 PM
Or then trade EE and then trade for Beltre.

Realistic, no. Fun to ponder, yes.

nate
01-02-2009, 06:51 PM
Err...like Spitball said...

Far East
01-02-2009, 07:05 PM
Can Jorge Cantu play LF? He hits like a corner OFer, and RH to boot.

His career high '08 line: .277 .327 .481 .808

Jpup
01-02-2009, 07:09 PM
Can Jorge Cantu play LF? He hits like a corner OFer, and RH to boot.

His career high '08 line: .277 .327 .481 .808

Just say no to Cantu.

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 07:11 PM
Just say no to Cantu.

Exactly.

Cantu wasn't great for us the 1st time around, he certainly wouldn't fare better with another chance.

Raisor
01-02-2009, 07:26 PM
No more players brought in with lower the 350 OBPs.

The line must be drawn THIS far, no further.

Caveat Emperor
01-02-2009, 09:25 PM
No more players brought in with lower the 350 OBPs.

The line must be drawn THIS far, no further.

Agreed...We wouldn't want to make the good captain angry.

http://www.firsttvdrama.com/enterprise/images/picard.jpg

Raisor
01-02-2009, 10:31 PM
Agreed...We wouldn't want to make the good captain angry.

http://www.firsttvdrama.com/enterprise/images/picard.jpg

http://i252.photobucket.com/albums/hh15/supporter555/picard-facepalm.jpg

Big Klu
01-02-2009, 10:55 PM
Agreed...We wouldn't want to make the good captain angry.

http://www.firsttvdrama.com/enterprise/images/picard.jpg

http://www.marveldirectory.com/pictures/individuals/c_1d/captainamerica.gif

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/8f/Caine_Mutiny_Bogart.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/32/Captainlogo_2005.PNG

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 10:56 PM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/32/Captainlogo_2005.PNG

We'll need plenty of the Cap'n in us to watch the Reds in 2009, that's for sure.

Degenerate39
01-02-2009, 11:04 PM
We'll need plenty of the Cap'n in us to watch the Reds in 2009, that's for sure.

I hope you don't mean captainmorgan07. :eek:

RedEye
01-02-2009, 11:26 PM
Let me first say that I've been guilty of this, too... but has there EVER been even a rumor that the M's might deal Adrian Beltre? EVER? Especially with their new baseball research department up and running, I seriously doubt Seattle is considering trading their 3B.

Falls City Beer
01-02-2009, 11:30 PM
Let me first say that I've been guilty of this, too... but has there EVER been even a rumor that the M's might deal Adrian Beltre? EVER? Especially with their new baseball research department up and running, I seriously doubt Seattle is considering trading their 3B.

Considering their dearth of talent, they should be considering any and all options for turning their franchise around. Two pretty good birds in the bush for a pretty good bird in the hand isn't the worst kind of trade to make in their position.

RedEye
01-02-2009, 11:52 PM
Considering their dearth of talent, they should be considering any and all options for turning their franchise around. Two pretty good birds in the bush for a pretty good bird in the hand isn't the worst kind of trade to make in their position.

Fair point, but I would expect those two birds would have to be named Votto and Cueto. I think Beltre is one of the most underrated 3B in MLB, at least by those who don't take defense and park factors into consideration. What's more, he's signed to a reasonable contract. Seattle probably isn't in a hurry to dump him.

corkedbat
01-03-2009, 12:13 AM
Sanchez and Randy Winn for EdE - Sign Wiggington for 3B, add a LF bat, platoon Winn and Dickerson in CF and pretend Taveras never happened.

kpresidente
01-03-2009, 07:45 PM
Let me first say that I've been guilty of this, too... but has there EVER been even a rumor that the M's might deal Adrian Beltre? EVER? Especially with their new baseball research department up and running, I seriously doubt Seattle is considering trading their 3B.

They were talking to the Twins until Beltre put them on his no-trade list. Regardless, the price was too high (young pitching), and the Twins were going to back out anyway.

RedEye
01-03-2009, 07:53 PM
They were talking to the Twins until Beltre put them on his no-trade list. Regardless, the price was too high (young pitching), and the Twins were going to back out anyway.

Ah, thanks... I didn't hear that one. Suffice it to say, there have been very few Beltre rumors out there, and a whole lot of nothing connecting him to our Reds. That's not to say that all trades are telegraphed before they happen. Sometimes they just crop up out of the blue. But a Beltre deal to Cincy would absolutely blow my mind. I'd be happy, but my mind would be blown.

Ron Madden
01-03-2009, 08:08 PM
This would be a great idea. We could trade what little offense we have to eliminate any false hopes of competing in 2009.


I hope the Reds hold on to Edwin, Votto and Bruce. Another Club would have to blow me outta the water with an offer before I'd trade eighther of'em.

:)

Dom Heffner
01-03-2009, 08:13 PM
Sanchez is like Daniel Cabrera isn't he? He'll thrill you with that K rate and then break your heart with the walks.

I'm going off memory here, but I remember him having some control issues.

If Sanchez has any hope of reducing the walk rate, the Giants would never trade him for a near miss like Edwin.

Dom Heffner
01-03-2009, 08:21 PM
Never mind. He finished with about a 2 to 1 K to BB ratio I could have sworn he was closer to 1 to 1.

PuffyPig
01-03-2009, 09:29 PM
Fair point, but I would expect those two birds would have to be named Votto and Cueto. I think Beltre is one of the most underrated 3B in MLB, at least by those who don't take defense and park factors into consideration. What's more, he's signed to a reasonable contract. Seattle probably isn't in a hurry to dump him.

A reasonable contract?


He's makes $12M next year and then is a FA.

The Reds wouldn't give up either of Cueto or Votto for Beltre. Nor would they have to. I like Beltre, but he still has hit less for the Mariners than EE has for the Reds. Yes, Beltre is a better fielder, and yes he has played in a worse hitters park, but considering his salary, and his FA status, he has less value to the Reds than EE himself. Much less Votto or Cueto. As a one year rental, he's worth 2 propsects.

remdog
01-03-2009, 09:45 PM
A reasonable contract?


He's makes $12M next year and then is a FA.

The Reds wouldn't give up either of Cueto or Votto for Beltre. Nor would they have to. I like Beltre, but he still has hit less for the Mariners than EE has for the Reds. Yes, Beltre is a better fielder, and yes he has played in a worse hitters park, but considering his salary, and his FA status, he has less value to the Reds than EE himself. Much less Votto or Cueto. As a one year rental, he's worth 2 propsects.

Exactly. That post is right on the money.

Rem

RedEye
01-03-2009, 10:46 PM
A reasonable contract?


He's makes $12M next year and then is a FA.

The Reds wouldn't give up either of Cueto or Votto for Beltre. Nor would they have to. I like Beltre, but he still has hit less for the Mariners than EE has for the Reds. Yes, Beltre is a better fielder, and yes he has played in a worse hitters park, but considering his salary, and his FA status, he has less value to the Reds than EE himself. Much less Votto or Cueto. As a one year rental, he's worth 2 propsects.

He's arguably the best 3B in baseball and plays in a park the suppresses his otherwise steady, respectable offense (I think I'm quoting OBM or jojo or someone else directly here). Anyway, I know there are some other pro-Beltre folks out there who can back me up, including my friend who is an avid M's fan is hoping against hope that they don't trade him.

I may have been exaggerating with the Cueto and Votto suggestion, but I was just trying to say that the M's would probably require a top offer to trade this guy, and as they should. I continue to think Beltre would be a very, very solid addition to the Reds.

remdog
01-03-2009, 10:57 PM
I watched Beltre in his 'break out' year with the Dodgers. He's not that great. Personally, I wouldn't trade for him or his contract.

Rem

LINEDRIVER
01-03-2009, 11:08 PM
EEE (ERROR on EDWIN ENCARNACION) might be leaving??? Though I may be in the minority,...I've been hoping for that. Why??? I'm tired of the one or two brainfarts at the plate every night and the one or two brainfarts in the field every night.

Can't see the Reds as a contending caliber club with such shoddy play at 3B. Other than the Reds, I dont know what other club would seriously consider him as a full-time thirdbaseman. Move him to leftfield? Will that bruise his ego? Will he pout in LF instead of 3B?

My guess is he'll stay right where he is because he's a right-handed bat and nobody else wants him at their 3B. We'll have to deal with his many 3-for-25's at the plate, and quite possibly from the clean-up position while splitting up Bruce and Votto.

corkedbat
01-03-2009, 11:29 PM
Never mind. He finished with about a 2 to 1 K to BB ratio I could have sworn he was closer to 1 to 1.

I like Edwin a lot and I'm in no hurry to just show him the door, but for a solid young lefty who has some major league experience and can hit the low 90's - I'd do it and go with a stopgap at 3B for a year or so until Frazier or even Francisco is ready.

I could live with a competition of Keppinger, Hairston, Valaika and Rosales or bring in someone like Wigginton or Crede from the outside if it means adding another young arm to Volquez abd Cueto (especially a lefty).

If you do replace Edwin wth a lesser bat at 3B though, it becomes essential to get a solid bat with pop for left field (especially with Taveras in CF). I like the thought of getting Winn in the deal also because he has some OB skill and we'd be giving up one of our few young players with decent OBP potential.

Even though I'd do it, I'd be nervous. A good young lefty starter would be worth the risk though, IMO.

Highlifeman21
01-03-2009, 11:33 PM
I like Edwin a lot and I'm in no hurry to just show him the door, but for a solid young lefty who has some major league experience and can hit the low 90's - I'd do it and go with a stopgap at 3B for a year or so until Frazier or even Francisco is ready.

I could live with a competition of Keppinger, Hairston, Valaika and Rosales or bring in someone like Wigginton or Crede from the outside if it means adding another young arm to Volquez abd Cueto (especially a lefty).

If you do replace Edwin wth a lesser bat at 3B though, it becomes essential to gey a solid bat with pop for left field (especially withTaveras in CF). I like the thought of getting Winn in the deal also because he has some OB skill and we'd be giving up one of our few young players with decent OBP potential.

Even though I'd do it, I'd be nervous. A good young lefty starter would be worth the risk though, IMO.

Seeing as we currently have none of those in the rotation, and the pipeline in LOU isn't looking pretty.

dougdirt
01-03-2009, 11:46 PM
I never understood the idea that you need a lefty starter. You need good starters. I don't care what arm they throw with. Get a good starter and I don't care what arm he throws with.

camisadelgolf
01-03-2009, 11:50 PM
I never understood the idea that you need a lefty starter. You need good starters. I don't care what arm they throw with. Get a good starter and I don't care what arm he throws with.
The idea is that a left-handed starters make the right-handed starters more effective and vice versa because it's one more thing that the hitters have to adjust to. Results are results, though, so I don't think any of us care whether the winning pitcher is left- or right-handed.

dougdirt
01-03-2009, 11:59 PM
The idea is that a left-handed starters make the right-handed starters more effective and vice versa because it's one more thing that the hitters have to adjust to. Results are results, though, so I don't think any of us care whether the winning pitcher is left- or right-handed.

That, no offense (and I know its not your idea), is a dumb idea. A starter is more effective because of what he can do on the mound, not because of what someone did the day before did on the mount.

corkedbat
01-04-2009, 12:02 AM
I never understood the idea that you need a lefty starter. You need good starters. I don't care what arm they throw with. Get a good starter and I don't care what arm he throws with.

A good starter is first and foremost - if you can acquire a good young starter that is better than what you have in the monors - the do it. Getting a lefty is an added bonus though, IMO. It helps you with the percentages and gives you a different look in the rotation.

I like RH starters that can throw 97 MPH, as much as most but if you throw three in a row in a series that throw in much the same manner, the other team can catch up to the pitches better by the third game - whereas if you throw in a sinker baller or a LHer you can throw the hitters off even game to game - much like bringing in a LH fireball reliever to follow a soft tossing RH starter.

I don't think it's important to a LH starter to the totation just to add a LH starter - a very solid young LH starter could be very big though - and I think Sanchez could be very solid.

dougdirt
01-04-2009, 12:06 AM
I don't think it's important to a LH starter to the totation just to add a LH starter - a very solid young LH starter could be very big though - and I think Sanchez could be very solid.

But you want him because you think he can be good. Not because he is a lefty.

corkedbat
01-04-2009, 12:12 AM
But you want him because you think he can be good. Not because he is a lefty.

As I said, being a good starter is first and foremost. I believe he would be better than our current fifth starter candidates and he might give you the flexibility to eventually move Arroyo in the right deal - I'd be very leery of trading Bronson right now though.

I would acquire him because I thiink he would become one of our top five starters and upgrade our rotation - the fact that he is LH'd would be a nice little perk. If I thought he were no better than another Matt Maloney (or Darryl Thompson for that matter) I would not be for making the deal.

I like the thought of:

Harang
Volquez
Sanchez
Cueto
Arroyo

Highlifeman21
01-04-2009, 12:14 AM
I never understood the idea that you need a lefty starter. You need good starters. I don't care what arm they throw with. Get a good starter and I don't care what arm he throws with.

Who was the last good LH SP for the Reds?

Brandon Claussen in 2005?
Felix Heredia (only pitched 72 IP) in 2003?
Denny Neagle (only pitched 117 2/3 IP) in 2000?
1-800-Ron-Villone (only pitched 142 2/3 IP) in 1999?
Mike Remlinger in 1998?
Kent Mercker in 1997? (The scary part is he actually used to be good for us!)
John Smiley in 1996?
Pete Schourek in 1995?
John Smiley in 1995?


By default, John Smiley seems to be my answer, since he actually had consecutive good years for the Reds, as opposed to the other 1 year wonders listed above.


This is just an idea off the top of my head, and there's no concrete correlation to back it up, but it seems that the Reds have put up more Ws when they have a dominant LH SP in the rotation, or when they have a LH SP who at least puts up solid individual numbers. Take that for what it's worth.

dougdirt
01-04-2009, 12:16 AM
This is just an idea off the top of my head, and there's no concrete correlation to back it up, but it seems that the Reds have put up more Ws when they have a dominant LH SP in the rotation, or when they have a LH SP who at least puts up solid individual numbers. Take that for what it's worth.

It probably had more to do with the team around them than anything I would say.

corkedbat
01-04-2009, 12:17 AM
when was Browning's last season?

Highlifeman21
01-04-2009, 12:25 AM
It probably had more to do with the team around them than anything I would say.

And there's probably a lot of truth to that, but the last time the Reds made the playoffs, 1995, they had 2 solid LH SP.

The last time they sniffed the playoffs, 1999, 1-800-Ron-Villone put up solid numbers, combined with solid starts from another LH SP Denny Neagle (although only 111 2/3 IP).

In 2000, they put up 85 wins with solid efforts from only Denny Neagle (although only 117 2/3 IP) on the LH side.

So, around 1995, John Smiley was the LH SP that was our anchor, and then around 1999-2000, Neagle was the guy (albeit in limited IP).

Maybe we just need to get some of the lefty dominance back in the rotation?

Highlifeman21
01-04-2009, 12:27 AM
when was Browning's last season?

1994 with the Reds.

He had a very forgettable 1995 with the Royals.

Caveat Emperor
01-04-2009, 05:31 AM
We'll have to deal with his many 3-for-25's at the plate, and quite possibly from the clean-up position while splitting up Bruce and Votto.

My favorite "strange EE fact" -- Edwin has a career OPS of .658 against opposing pitchers in his first PA of the game, the worst of any of the everyday players on the Reds roster (even Willy Taveras has a .660 in his 1st PA of the game).

Edwin also hates the month of May, as his career OPS for the month is .663.

GAC
01-04-2009, 05:57 AM
or is it his cousin, TBD?

Distant cousin to DFA. :thumbup:

RedEye
01-04-2009, 11:57 AM
I watched Beltre in his 'break out' year with the Dodgers. He's not that great. Personally, I wouldn't trade for him or his contract.

Rem

And this based on what exactly? I would actually think that breakout year would qualify him as capable of great things. He may not approach them again, but he's still very solid and underrated going by his career norms. He'd get a boost in GABP, too.

I understand the concern about the contract, but depending on what the Reds give up to get Beltre, it could be a very solid investment. As with most contracts, it doesn't look as immense today as it did when he signed. $12 million by today's standards is very little, especially for what you are getting.

To be sure, any SS surrounded by Beltre and BP would look a heck of a lot better on defense. And the guy is no slouch on offense either.

Edit: I can't believe I'm actually writing all this after starting by complaining that there is actually no substantive evidence that the Reds could get this player. Sorry, folks.

Kc61
01-04-2009, 01:49 PM
Reds could use lefty pitching, but there is a far greater need for its rotation -- starters with ground ball tendencies. The team's failure to address this need is as much of a problem as its continuing challenges with power, OBP, and defense.

Harang, Arroyo, and Cueto allowed a total of 93 homer runs last year and despite all the kudos for these starting pitchers IMO there is no way this team can succeed with that number. If Harang again allows 30 plus homers next season, the odds are remote that his ERA and win totals will return to prior performance.

Affeldt was the best Reds pitcher in throwing grounders last year, now he's gone. Some others are ok in that area, certainly Volquez has that ability which is great. Sanchez is a good young pitcher, acquire him, fine with me. I always like to see another good starter, although Sanchez so far is about neutral, grounders to fly balls.

But overall, it is a failure for this GABP team not to have more starting pitchers who keep the ball in the stadium.

camisadelgolf
01-04-2009, 02:01 PM
Reds could use lefty pitching, but there is a far greater need for its rotation -- starters with ground ball tendencies. The team's failure to address this need is as much of a problem as its continuing challenges with power, OBP, and defense.

Harang, Arroyo, and Cueto allowed a total of 93 homer runs last year and despite all the kudos for these starting pitchers IMO there is no way this team can succeed with that number. If Harang again allows 30 plus homers next season, the odds are remote that his ERA and win totals will return to prior performance.

Affeldt was the best Reds pitcher in throwing grounders last year, now he's gone. Some others are ok in that area, certainly Volquez has that ability which is great. Sanchez is a good young pitcher, acquire him, fine with me. I always like to see another good starter, although Sanchez so far is about neutral, grounders to fly balls.

But overall, it is a failure for this GABP team not to have more starting pitchers who keep the ball in the stadium.

Seeing as how Edwin Encarnacion and Jeff Keppinger took up so much time on the left side of the infield, I think it was a blessing that the Reds didn't have so many ground ball pitchers.

Kc61
01-04-2009, 02:05 PM
Seeing as how Edwin Encarnacion and Jeff Keppinger took up so much time on the left side of the infield, I think it was a blessing that the Reds didn't have so many ground ball pitchers.


No doubt. But it goes without saying that the Reds need to improve that infield defense as well.

Unless they reconfigure GABP there is no way this team will succeed with pitchers allowing so many long fly balls. Volquez is exactly the right kind of pitcher -- Ks and ground balls. That's why I like the two young relievers, Roenicke and Fisher. Ks and ground balls.

So the formula for this team includes solid infield defense and a number of pitchers who throw grounders.

Everyone seems to recognize the defensive problem. I don't read very much about the need to have ground ball starting pitchers.

I(heart)Freel
01-04-2009, 02:15 PM
Which is why Lowe woulda been nice to target as the big offseason acquisition. With a great rotation, you could concentrate on less bop and more glove, which thankfully costs a lot less than more bop and no glove.

Kc61
01-04-2009, 02:28 PM
How about these possibilities --

1. EE, Micah Owings and Chris Heisey (would it take Danny Dorn?) for Sanchez and Randy Winn. Reds then sign Wigginton for third base.

2. EE, Micah Owings and Chris Valaika (would it take Todd Frazier?) for Freddy Lewis and Jonathan Sanchez. Reds sign Wigginton for third base.

Reds would still lack a true cleanup hitter but would get a good table setter/outfielder and a good young pitcher. And a pretty solid guy for third in the short term.

OnBaseMachine
01-04-2009, 02:28 PM
No doubt. But it goes without saying that the Reds need to improve that infield defense as well.

Unless they reconfigure GABP there is no way this team will succeed with pitchers allowing so many long fly balls. Volquez is exactly the right kind of pitcher -- Ks and ground balls. That's why I like the two young relievers, Roenicke and Fisher. Ks and ground balls.

So the formula for this team includes solid infield defense and a number of pitchers who throw grounders.

Everyone seems to recognize the defensive problem. I don't read very much about the need to have ground ball starting pitchers.

Who cares if they allow homers? I don't. The important thing is having good pitchers ... Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Edinson Volquez are good pitchers, and Cueto has the talent to be a great one too.

dougdirt
01-04-2009, 02:34 PM
No doubt. But it goes without saying that the Reds need to improve that infield defense as well.

Unless they reconfigure GABP there is no way this team will succeed with pitchers allowing so many long fly balls. Volquez is exactly the right kind of pitcher -- Ks and ground balls. That's why I like the two young relievers, Roenicke and Fisher. Ks and ground balls.

So the formula for this team includes solid infield defense and a number of pitchers who throw grounders.

Everyone seems to recognize the defensive problem. I don't read very much about the need to have ground ball starting pitchers.

The problem is, there just aren't many K and GB type starting pitchers out there.

Kc61
01-04-2009, 02:37 PM
Who cares if they allow homers? I don't. The important thing is having good pitchers ... Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Edinson Volquez are good pitchers, and Cueto has the talent to be a great one too.


I must say, I've read tons of RedsZone posts discussing statistics over the past years and I've yet to read that a pitcher's propensity to allow homers is irrelevant. I'd like to read the baseball theory that says that. When three pitchers allow 93 homers, that's a problem.

Last year, Harang, Arroyo and Cueto each had an ERA above 4.75. They allowed around 30 homers each, in Harang's case more than 30. Now, they may be good pitchers but many teams would find that performance simply unacceptable.

Cueto is still young, obviously, and Harang had an off-year. So it's not doom and gloom necessarily.

But the Reds starters better keep the ball in the stadium next year or don't expect many Cy Young votes for them.

camisadelgolf
01-04-2009, 02:43 PM
I must say, I've read tons of RedsZone posts discussing statistics over the past years and I've yet to read that a pitcher's propensity to allow homers is irrelevant. I'd like to read the baseball theory that says that. When three pitchers allow 93 homers, that's a problem.

Last year, Harang, Arroyo and Cueto each had an ERA above 4.75. They allowed around 30 homers each, in Harang's case more than 30. Now, you may want to declare them good pitchers but many teams would find that performance simply unacceptable.

Cueto is still young, obviously, and Harang had an off-year. So it's not doom and gloom necessarily.

But the Reds starters better keep the ball in the stadium next year or don't expect many Cy Young votes for them.

Runs are runs. What difference does it make if the runs come from a homerun or line drives down the line? In a way, homeruns are better because the defense doesn't need to chase the ball, and the pitcher throws less pitches.

Kc61
01-04-2009, 02:46 PM
Runs are runs. What difference does it make if the runs come from a homerun or line drives down the line? In a way, homeruns are better because the defense doesn't need to chase the ball, and the pitcher throws less pitches.

I think the answer is pretty obvious.

If a pitcher allows 30 homers in a season, it's pretty hard to keep the number of overall runs allowed low. The pitcher who allows 30 homers has a rather difficult time keeping his ERA acceptably low.

Won't argue about this. I'll like pitchers who allow few homers. Others can like pitchers who allow lots of them.

TRF
01-04-2009, 03:03 PM
I think the answer is pretty obvious.

If a pitcher allows 30 homers in a season, it's pretty hard to keep the number of overall runs allowed low. The pitcher who allows 30 homers has a rather difficult time keeping his ERA acceptably low.

Won't argue about this. I'll like pitchers who allow few homers. Others can like pitchers who allow lots of them.

The difference is BB's and K's. Harang is a high K low BB pitcher. He can give up 25+ HR's because he averages right at about 52BB's a season. Since 2004 he's averaged 177K's as well.

Low BB's means fewer baserunners. It's one of the reasons I keep expecting Wandy Rodriguez to breakout in 2009. He's allowed fewer HR's than Harang, but he hasn't pitched 200 innings in a year yet.

RedsManRick
01-04-2009, 03:05 PM
I think the answer is pretty obvious.

If a pitcher allows 30 homers in a season, it's pretty hard to keep the number of overall runs allowed low. The pitcher who allows 30 homers has a rather difficult time keeping his ERA acceptably low.

Won't argue about this. I'll like pitchers who allow few homers. Others can like pitchers who allow lots of them.

I too like pitchers who allow few homers. I also like ones that allow few line drives, ones who don't walk very many, and ones who strike out a bunch of guys. There's not much a defense can do about any of those things; though admittedly, a defense can do more about batted balls in play than it can walks or homers. On the flip side, if homers are your weakness but you otherwise do a good job at keeping balls out of play, you might be better off when you have a poor defense behind you than a guy with the opposite skill set.

I can deal with homers if he has the control of Brad Radke or, better yet, the control and bat missing ability of Curt Schilling. I can deal with walks if he keeps the ball out of the air and misses bats like Zambrano. You're right, doing any of those things poorly makes it pretty hard to keep runs of the board, homers in particular. Bottom line, give me pitchers who do those things in a combination that results in the fewest runs being scored.

Regarding Harang in particular, 2008 was out of line with his history in terms of both FB% and HR/FB. I think it's a reasonable expectation that he will regress back towards his career norms.

Voqluez is the one I'm worried about. His season was quite Zambrano-esque. Clearly that's a good thing on balance. But if he loses any effectiveness in terms of homers or missing bats, he's going to struggle to keep all those walks from dinging his ERA significantly.

dougdirt
01-04-2009, 03:46 PM
I must say, I've read tons of RedsZone posts discussing statistics over the past years and I've yet to read that a pitcher's propensity to allow homers is irrelevant. I'd like to read the baseball theory that says that. When three pitchers allow 93 homers, that's a problem.

Last year, Harang, Arroyo and Cueto each had an ERA above 4.75. They allowed around 30 homers each, in Harang's case more than 30. Now, they may be good pitchers but many teams would find that performance simply unacceptable.

Cueto is still young, obviously, and Harang had an off-year. So it's not doom and gloom necessarily.

But the Reds starters better keep the ball in the stadium next year or don't expect many Cy Young votes for them.
Many teams don't play in a park like GABP either, so 30 HR would be a lot to most teams. HR's suck, but playing in our stadium guys are going to give up HR's just like our guys are going to hit some. Its just going to happen because of the stadium. Odds are Harang gives up fewer next year and Volquez allows more. To attempt to neutralize it all, strike guys out and keep guys from first base (low walks) so when they do come, they don't hurt as bad.

Falls City Beer
01-04-2009, 04:24 PM
The difference is BB's and K's. Harang is a high K low BB pitcher. He can give up 25+ HR's because he averages right at about 52BB's a season. Since 2004 he's averaged 177K's as well.

Low BB's means fewer baserunners. It's one of the reasons I keep expecting Wandy Rodriguez to breakout in 2009. He's allowed fewer HR's than Harang, but he hasn't pitched 200 innings in a year yet.

Harang wasn't all that high-K last season (similar to 2005 K numbers/IP). And injured. He might return to form; he might be on a downward slide from only a modest height to begin with.

Jpup
01-04-2009, 04:33 PM
modest height to begin with.

He was one of the best pitchers in the league for a couple of years until he got hurt. I don't see any reason he will not return to form.

Caveat Emperor
01-04-2009, 04:57 PM
He was one of the best pitchers in the league for a couple of years until he got hurt. I don't see any reason he will not return to form.

You mean other than the fact that he'll turn 31 at the start of this season and the fact that he's logged a ton of innings over his last 4 seasons?

Harang's a 50/50 shot for continued regression in my mind. When he's on his '06/'07 form, he's a one of the top 5 pitchers in the league. Just watching him pitch, though, you get the sense that his dominance hangs by a hair since he lacks that overpowering stuff of a Volquez or a Sabathia. Given that, I think that any nagging or longterm injury that robs him of just a little bit of stuff might be enough to move him from legitimate #1 starter back to merely an above-average MOR starter.

Mario-Rijo
01-04-2009, 05:04 PM
You mean other than the fact that he'll turn 31 at the start of this season and the fact that he's logged a ton of innings over his last 4 seasons?

Harang's a 50/50 shot for continued regression in my mind. When he's on his '06/'07 form, he's a one of the top 5 pitchers in the league. Just watching him pitch, though, you get the sense that his dominance hangs by a hair since he lacks that overpowering stuff of a Volquez or a Sabathia. Given that, I think that any nagging or longterm injury that robs him of just a little bit of stuff might be enough to move him from legitimate #1 starter back to merely an above-average MOR starter.

That's a good post and a fine point. However I do think Harang relies on his command & control more than most starters do kind of Maddux-esque. I guess what I am saying is he has never had prototypical #1 stuff yet he pitches in that realm because he is so rounded. IMO he will always be a better pitcher than his stuff would indicate.

red-in-la
01-04-2009, 05:32 PM
That's a good post and a fine point. However I do think Harang relies on his command & control more than most starters do kind of Maddux-esque. I guess what I am saying is he has never had prototypical #1 stuff yet he pitches in that realm because he is so rounded. IMO he will always be a better pitcher than his stuff would indicate.

Harang is NOT a maximum effort pitcher. As you point out, he relies on control. I think he will last a long time because he will retain his advantage as he ages and if he is anything like Maddux, his command should get even better.

IMHO, you keep Harang as long as you can simply because he isn't as likely to blow out an elbow or tear his rotator cuff.

I think Harang needs a VERY regular routune because he has the be so sharp with his command or he is very hittable. That is qhy I would have never used Harang in relief in the middle of the season. Game 7 of the WS maybe but never over one regular season game.

OnBaseMachine
01-04-2009, 08:22 PM
He was one of the best pitchers in the league for a couple of years until he got hurt. I don't see any reason he will not return to form.

Agreed. Aaron Harang is severely underrated ... by his own fans. If he were a Cardinal or a Yankee, he'd be viewed as one of the top pitchers in the game and we'd be making trade proposals for him.

Far East
01-04-2009, 08:36 PM
EEE (ERROR on EDWIN ENCARNACION)...I'm tired of the one or two brainfarts at the plate every night and the one or two brainfarts in the field every night...
I too cringe whenever Edwin fails to work the count or tops a weak grounder to the left side on outside pitches that better hitters will drive the other way.

But I can live with his defense. Does anybody else think that many or his errors with the glove -- I'm not talking about his errant throws -- have been borderline calls by the official scorer? To me it looks like many of them could have been scores as base hits.

In addition, he has saved countless base hits with some spectacular diving plays to the glove side and to the foul line side.

He needs a forceful, stern batting coach to instill some discipline -- not just ones who talk the talk.

corkedbat
01-04-2009, 09:00 PM
Agreed. Aaron Harang is severely underrated ... by his own fans. If he were a Cardinal or a Yankee, he'd be viewed as one of the top pitchers in the game and we'd be making trade proposals for him.

Not by me. I hope Aaron makes a full turn around this season. When he's pn, he's an absolute joy to watch.