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Kc61
01-05-2009, 12:31 AM
Barring injury or unexpected trades, and fully recognizing that it's early January, I think this pitching staff is clear and "competition" is a formality:

Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
Owings

Cordero
Burton
Weathers
Bray
Rhodes
Lincoln
Massett

Owings seems the clear favorite to be fifth starter. Ramirez, i expect, will start off at AAA.

Massett did well last year out of the pen and I think he'll be on the staff. He is a workhorse type reliever and the Reds need this. I highly doubt that Massett goes to AAA. I also doubt that Reds use Ramirez out of the pen.

Not saying it's the greatest staff, but i think spring training will be academic. This is the staff IMO.

reds44
01-05-2009, 12:35 AM
Looks a lot like last years, and with a worse offense to boot. Should be a fun season.

dougdirt
01-05-2009, 12:44 AM
I still think Ramirez gets a strong look for the #5 spot and the long spot in the pen. I am not as convinced about Massett as you are. I think Owings makes the team, but whether its as the #5 or the long man is still up in the air.

corkedbat
01-05-2009, 12:56 AM
I still think Ramirez gets a strong look for the #5 spot and the long spot in the pen. I am not as convinced about Massett as you are. I think Owings makes the team, but whether its as the #5 or the long man is still up in the air.

I agree. i think it comes down to Owings, Ramierez and Massett for the final two spots (fifth starter and the long role). Any dead heats go to Owings because of his bat.

Caveat Emperor
01-05-2009, 01:04 AM
I still think Ramirez gets a strong look for the #5 spot and the long spot in the pen. I am not as convinced about Massett as you are. I think Owings makes the team, but whether its as the #5 or the long man is still up in the air.

I don't even think there's a competition here -- Owings is the #5 unless he has an awful spring.

He's a poor choice as a long man because it will likely limit the use of his bat in pinch hitting situations. I don't even want to begin to imagine the grief Dusty would get if he pinch hit Owings early in some game that later went to extras, where he wouldn't be available to pitch due to having already been used as a hitter.

corkedbat
01-05-2009, 01:22 AM
I don't even think there's a competition here -- Owings is the #5 unless he has an awful spring.

He's a poor choice as a long man because it will likely limit the use of his bat in pinch hitting situations. I don't even want to begin to imagine the grief Dusty would get if he pinch hit Owings early in some game that later went to extras, where he wouldn't be available to pitch due to having already been used as a hitter.

It might limit straight pinch-hitting at bats somewhat, but you could bring him in to pinch-hit and leave him in the game or bring him in to get an out or two in one inning where the pitcher is due up and leave him in to hit and pitch the next inning.

On days after he's pitched a couple of times and not available out of the pen, he could still be useful as a pinch-hitter and in a long role, if he comes in to a sizeable deficit and pitches well, you don't have to lift him for a pinch hitter and use relievers needlessly in a game that might not be that winnable. If you use him semi-exclusively as a longman, by the time you reach the fourth or fifth inning, a longman is not needed and he can become a pinch hitter. Or he can pitch multiple extra-inning innings without the need of a pinch hitter - again, saving arms and allowing Dusty from resorting to Harang and Volquez. :evil:

I think his bat can add a interesting dimension in the rotation or out of the pen.

PuffyPig
01-16-2009, 09:17 PM
Looks a lot like last years, and with a worse offense to boot. Should be a fun season.

If Harang bounces back to 2006-7 form and Cueto continues to improve, the starters could be quite good. That's the hope.

WebScorpion
01-20-2009, 10:32 AM
It might limit straight pinch-hitting at bats somewhat, but you could bring him in to pinch-hit and leave him in the game or bring him in to get an out or two in one inning where the pitcher is due up and leave him in to hit and pitch the next inning.

On days after he's pitched a couple of times and not available out of the pen, he could still be useful as a pinch-hitter and in a long role, if he comes in to a sizeable deficit and pitches well, you don't have to lift him for a pinch hitter and use relievers needlessly in a game that might not be that winnable. If you use him semi-exclusively as a longman, by the time you reach the fourth or fifth inning, a longman is not needed and he can become a pinch hitter. Or he can pitch multiple extra-inning innings without the need of a pinch hitter - again, saving arms and allowing Dusty from resorting to Harang and Volquez. :evil:

I think his bat can add a interesting dimension in the rotation or out of the pen.

We're counting on Dusty Baker to use someone properly?!? :rolleyes:

I feel the key to improving our pitching staff this season is improving the defense. Face it, we've got a lot riding on some young guys who get a little flustered when forced to get 4 or 5 outs per inning. Hell, veteran pitchers show a marked improvement when not forced to get extra outs too. I hope they figure out quickly whether Alex Gonzalez is going to be worth anything on defense or not and move decisively to fill the gap if he can't cut it. IMO, our whole season may ride on the resolution of our SS defense problem. It's just good business to preserve the arms of your young starters as much as possible...extra outs should not be an option. It's elementary...http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-char145.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

Kc61
03-11-2009, 12:19 AM
Nothing's changed.

mbgrayson
03-11-2009, 12:35 AM
I still think young Mr. Bailey has a shot here. The spring stats are looking good (for both of them):



Player W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO
M Owings 1 0 1.69 10.2 6 2 2 0 2 12

H Bailey 0 0 1.13 8.0 7 1 1 0 1 7


I am very optimistic that Homer has started to turn the corner, and that he will become the pitcher we hoped for the last two seasons.

WVRedsFan
03-11-2009, 01:03 AM
I still think young Mr. Bailey has a shot here. The spring stats are looking good (for both of them):



Player W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO
M Owings 1 0 1.69 10.2 6 2 2 0 2 12

H Bailey 0 0 1.13 8.0 7 1 1 0 1 7


I am very optimistic that Homer has started to turn the corner, and that he will become the pitcher we hoped for the last two seasons.

I agree. After his performance tonight, Masset is going to be in AAA with both Owings and Bailey starting at times and whoever gets the upper hand early will remain there. It's kind of a nice thing really. If Ownings goes south, you still have Bailey and visa-versa. The thing that worries me is Aaron Harang. I just have to feel that he will not return to 2006-2007 norms and really have a rough year. I also see Volquez not having another monster year and Cueto either really improving or going south. To sum this up, I just like to score some runs. That's the weakness that seems to be with this team again.

*BaseClogger*
03-11-2009, 02:46 AM
I agree. After his performance tonight, Masset is going to be in AAA...

He's out of options...

JaxRed
03-11-2009, 07:01 AM
Unless Bailey blows Owings away, that last slot is going to be Owings. Bailey gets seasoning at AAA.

Massett probably goes to bullpen again.

Kc61
03-11-2009, 08:13 AM
I agree. After his performance tonight, Masset is going to be in AAA with both Owings and Bailey starting at times and whoever gets the upper hand early will remain there. It's kind of a nice thing really. If Ownings goes south, you still have Bailey and visa-versa. The thing that worries me is Aaron Harang. I just have to feel that he will not return to 2006-2007 norms and really have a rough year. I also see Volquez not having another monster year and Cueto either really improving or going south. To sum this up, I just like to score some runs. That's the weakness that seems to be with this team again.

Hopefully the Reds don't fall into the trap of making major pitching decisions based on a few spring outings. I don't think they will. It would be a huge mistake.

Massett is a valuable guy because he is an innings eater out of the bullpen. That is his role. The Reds need this. I don't really care if the Yankees scored a few runs off him in early March at Steinbrenner Field.

Throwing 22 year old Bailey into middle relief to keep him in the major leagues this year would be a terrible decision. If he is starting to mature into a good pitcher, let him get a few months as a starter in AAA. I am confident that's what the Reds will do.

No, I think the original expectation of Owings in the rotation and Massett in the bullpen still holds.

membengal
03-11-2009, 08:22 AM
Full agreement, Kc.

I am glad as can be that it looks like Bailey is turning a corner, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with him spending the first few months in AAA this year building on his spring success. Then, when injury sets in (or a trade goes down), he's ready to come up and take a rightful spot in the rotation.

durl
03-11-2009, 10:43 AM
I think Owings will make the rotation and Bailey will go to Louisville. Hopefully Homer will be able to handle that.

So if Owings and and Bailey have similar numbers, will Owings make the rotation because of his bat?

hebroncougar
03-11-2009, 10:56 AM
I think Owings will make the rotation and Bailey will go to Louisville. Hopefully Homer will be able to handle that.

So if Owings and and Bailey have similar numbers, will Owings make the rotation because of his bat?

If we are concerned about pitcher's bats in rotation determinating, we are lost IMO. I choose the best pitcher, period

WebScorpion
03-11-2009, 10:58 AM
We have too many pitchers who are able to fill a rotation slot at the Major League level. Ooooh, let me say that again. We have too many pitchers who are able to fill a Major League rotation slot. What a nice problem to have... I don't recall EVER having this problem in my 40 years of Reds fandom. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-happy110.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-happy057.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-happy066.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

IMO, All things being equal, Owings makes the rotation based on his proven ability to get out Major League hitters.

TRF
03-11-2009, 11:11 AM
If we are concerned about pitcher's bats in rotation determinating, we are lost IMO. I choose the best pitcher, period

re-read what he posted....

So if Owings and and Bailey have similar numbers, will Owings make the rotation because of his bat?

I think Owings bat is a consideration. His experience and SUCCESS at the major league level are part of it too. Owing's ceiling MIGHT not be as high as Homer's, but his floor isn't as low either because he is a more complete player (not pitcher, player).

I think the Reds have a chance to put up special numbers from the rotation this year, the 5th spot included.

Chip R
03-11-2009, 11:13 AM
If we are concerned about pitcher's bats in rotation determinating, we are lost IMO. I choose the best pitcher, period


But if all other things are equal, shouldn't the better all around player make the team?

bucksfan2
03-11-2009, 11:41 AM
But if all other things are equal, shouldn't the better all around player make the team?

But things aren't all equal. Bailey has better pitching potential and has an option left. Owings has had major league success, lower potential, but a good bat. Owings gives you a great deal of flexibility with his bat. 4 days of the week he can become the 1st PH off the bench. He may allow a team to carry another pitcher from time to time. He also may allow the Reds to carry a defensive specialist.

IMO Owings bat as a starting pitcher is much better than his bat as a relief pitcher. In baseball sometimes decisions aren't made in a vacuum. Bailey may be the better pitcher, but Owings may be the best option for the team. If I were the Reds I would be calling up LAA and dangling Arroyo in a possible trade.

Marc D
03-11-2009, 12:57 PM
If I were the Reds I would be calling up LAA and dangling Arroyo in a possible trade.


I'm with you. Once my coaches tell me that Homer can be #4 and Owings #5 as a GM I hang a "for sale" sign on BA.

osuceltic
03-11-2009, 01:10 PM
I'm with you. Once my coaches tell me that Homer can be #4 and Owings #5 as a GM I hang a "for sale" sign on BA.

I wonder how many teams had all five opening day starting pitchers remain healthy throughout the season in '08.

You need more than five.

bucksfan2
03-11-2009, 01:32 PM
I wonder how many teams had all five opening day starting pitchers remain healthy throughout the season in '08.

You need more than five.

Masset, Thompson, Ramirez, and Maloney would all be available to pitch if needed.

dfs
03-11-2009, 02:16 PM
I wonder how many teams had all five opening day starting pitchers remain healthy throughout the season in '08.

You need more than five.
Usually teams have at least 8 guys start. Depending on the talent structure and injuries it can go up from there.

The reds look pretty stacked in the starting pitching department, starting spring training with 10 guys that could pitch at least 5 or so major league games without making any of us cringe.

Marc D
03-11-2009, 02:27 PM
I wonder how many teams had all five opening day starting pitchers remain healthy throughout the season in '08.

You need more than five.

You also need shortstops, center fielders and catchers in the minors to fill the pipeline. You can finish south of .500 for the umpeenth time in a row with or without Arroyo.

Jpup
03-11-2009, 03:19 PM
Masset to the pen for sure. He has no business starting. I thought that the Reds would send Bailey to AAA for sure, but if he clearly pitches well, I don't think they can. You can't ask a guy to go and win a job, he does it, then you don't give it to him. You either give him the job or trade him.

osuceltic
03-11-2009, 03:59 PM
Masset, Thompson, Ramirez, and Maloney would all be available to pitch if needed.

If that's the only qualification, then add me to the list. I'm available.

If those are the guys beyond our top six, then I think it's a real stretch to say our starting pitching is "stacked." (Not your quote.)

I just think it's nuts to rush to trade away a starting pitcher because we THINK we have six solid starters. I like our starters, but I'm a long way from considering it problem solved.

SMcGavin
03-11-2009, 04:08 PM
I think Owings will make the rotation and Bailey will go to Louisville. Hopefully Homer will be able to handle that.

So if Owings and and Bailey have similar numbers, will Owings make the rotation because of his bat?

Definitely. We are in the NL, the pitcher's hitting has to be taken into consideration. Someone earlier this offseason posted an adjustment you could make to Owings' ERA to account for the difference between his hitting and the average pitcher's hitting. Anyone remember what that was? If I remember correctly it was not a trivial amount.

mth123
03-11-2009, 04:22 PM
Definitely. We are in the NL, the pitcher's hitting has to be taken into consideration. Someone earlier this offseason posted an adjustment you could make to Owings' ERA to account for the difference between his hitting and the average pitcher's hitting. Anyone remember what that was? If I remember correctly it was not a trivial amount.

SteelSD made a post, that I'm too lazy to search for, and the conclusion IIRC was that a 5.00 ERA for Owings would be roughly equal to an ERA of 4.40 when factoring in Owings offense above the average pitcher. I could be off a little with my fuzzy memory, so if anyone wants to do the research, please correct me.

SMcGavin
03-11-2009, 05:15 PM
SteelSD made a post, that I'm too lazy to search for, and the conclusion IIRC was that a 5.00 ERA for Owings would be roughly equal to an ERA of 4.40 when factoring in Owings offense above the average pitcher. I could be off a little with my fuzzy memory, so if anyone wants to do the research, please correct me.

Thanks, that's what I was looking for. I am also too lazy to search but those numbers sound right from what I remember.

_Sir_Charles_
03-11-2009, 05:47 PM
Masset to the pen for sure. He has no business starting. I thought that the Reds would send Bailey to AAA for sure, but if he clearly pitches well, I don't think they can. You can't ask a guy to go and win a job, he does it, then you don't give it to him. You either give him the job or trade him.

I don't know about that in regards to Masset. If Bailey earns the 5th starters spot, how can you possibly keep Masset over Owings? I certainly don't want to carry 13 or more pitchers. If you keep them both, you'll be cutting us thin for position players. And with Gonzo's health still a bit of a question mark...I think I want that extra body for the infield.

membengal
03-11-2009, 06:18 PM
I think they could go with 11 for the pitching staff, in fact, I wish they would.

I think regardless, Bailey is starting the year in AAA, and not only is there nothing wrong with that, he really needs to. He still hasn't had sustained success at that level. If the strides he is showing in the spring are for real, then he will excel at AAA and be up by the middle of the summer.

The bigger question for me is why we need 12 pitchers. I think they could do just fine with 11, and the extra option for the bench would be nice for a change.

Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Owings

Cordero
Burton
Rhodes
Weathers
Lincoln
Bray

Massett to waivers, and if clears, AAA. Bailey to AAA.

mth123
03-11-2009, 06:26 PM
I think they could go with 11 for the pitching staff, in fact, I wish they would.

I think regardless, Bailey is starting the year in AAA, and not only is there nothing wrong with that, he really needs to. He still hasn't had sustained success at that level. If the strides he is showing in the spring are for real, then he will excel at AAA and be up by the middle of the summer.

The bigger question for me is why we need 12 pitchers. I think they could do just fine with 11, and the extra option for the bench would be nice for a change.

Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Owings

Cordero
Burton
Rhodes
Weathers
Lincoln
Bray

Massett to waivers, and if clears, AAA. Bailey to AAA.

I think the team needs 12. Rhodes is a one batter guy these days. Bray is fragile. Lincoln blows-up after 1 inning. Cordero is the closer and Burton and Weathers will need to be preserved so that one is available every day for the 8th inning. They need somebody to eat some innings in the pen. I agree with KC that Masset is most likely. If not him, then Fisher or Ramirez may be the best choice. I like Thompson as a reliever who could make an impact, but he's hurting again and I'd transition him to the pen in AAA.

Playadlc
03-11-2009, 06:47 PM
SteelSD made a post, that I'm too lazy to search for, and the conclusion IIRC was that a 5.00 ERA for Owings would be roughly equal to an ERA of 4.40 when factoring in Owings offense above the average pitcher. I could be off a little with my fuzzy memory, so if anyone wants to do the research, please correct me.

Where do you bat Owings when he pitches? I think you could make a legit case to hit him 6th, but no way that will happen.

Redhook
03-11-2009, 06:52 PM
I think the team needs 12. Rhodes is a one batter guy these days. Bray is fragile. Lincoln blows-up after 1 inning. Cordero is the closer and Burton and Weathers will need to be preserved so that one is available every day for the 8th inning. They need somebody to eat some innings in the pen. I agree with KC that Masset is most likely. If not him, then Fisher or Ramirez may be the best choice. I like Thompson as a reliever who could make an impact, but he's hurting again and I'd transition him to the pen in AAA.

I agree. I think the Reds need 12 pitchers as well. And, if Owings is one of the pitchers you get your extra hitter right there. That's why I like Owings on the team. You basically have a 26-man roster with him on the team.

Chip R
03-11-2009, 06:57 PM
Where do you bat Owings when he pitches? I think you could make a legit case to hit him 6th, but no way that will happen.


Dusty will bat him 9th. He would never humiliate his 7th and/or 8th place hitters by having a mere pitcher bat ahead of them.

WebScorpion
03-11-2009, 07:47 PM
Aaron Harang looked a lot better today...that makes me feel a bit better. He was the only starter I was getting worried about.

From Fay's column (http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090311/SPT04/303110058):

Harang went four shutout innings in the Reds’ 8-2 victory over Houston at Ed Smith Stadium. He allowed three hits, walked none and struck out four.

“That’s the best I felt down here,” he said. “I felt like that in some of my good games last year. But that’s more like I felt a couple of years ago.”

:thumbup: