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View Full Version : How many runs will Reds score?



Jim Fazio
01-18-2009, 09:12 PM
How many runs will the Reds average per game based on the current roster? I say 3, maybe 4 on good days. Line up is weak !!

timothy1
01-18-2009, 09:25 PM
a good average of five is possible... I hate to think the lineup is weak but I am hoping it's five per game on average... course it won't do much good if the defense is not there, starting with the pitching. The Reds can hit as the closing season indicates but the pitching roster have me concerned... that and not much action in the offseason as well.

Ghosts of 1990
01-19-2009, 12:44 AM
I think the offense will be laughable.

TheNext44
01-19-2009, 01:04 AM
Using career numbers (minor league for Dickerson), estimates of PA's, and basic RC formula, the Reds should score 706 runs next year, which is 4.35 runs a game.

However, those are very rough estimates and certain players should improve, like Bruce, and some will not achieve their career numbers, like Taveras, and there will be injuries and breakthrough seasons and surprises like Hairston last year. So, basically, it is hard to say, but without any changes, the odds are that the Reds will score between 690-720 runs next season. Add a big bat, and that should add around 20-30 runs.



Hernandez 48
Hanigan 33.4
Votto 103.4
Phillips 77
EE 79.5
Gonzo 41.1
Kepp 32.9
Hairston 30.5
Dickerson 52.2
Taveras 72
Bruce 85.3
Hopper 34.4
Janish 8.5
Pitchers 8
Total 706.2

BTW, they scored 704 last year.

Emin3mShady07
01-19-2009, 02:16 AM
I personally think 72 is a really high estimate for Taveras, I'd give him 65 tops. He isn't going to steal an inordinate amount of stolen bases again at an incredible rate. Even with last season, his career stolen base percentage is 82.4% - 169/205. Without last year, his stolen base percentage is 77.7% -101/130 - making me believe his true skill level is about 80%. I really doubt he repeats what he did last year. Taveras is bad new bears for the reds offense

Ghosts of 1990
01-19-2009, 02:32 AM
There's not enough guys in that offense who can knock in runs. They're a bat or two short.

TheNext44
01-19-2009, 03:10 AM
I personally think 72 is a really high estimate for Taveras, I'd give him 65 tops. He isn't going to steal an inordinate amount of stolen bases again at an incredible rate. Even with last season, his career stolen base percentage is 82.4% - 169/205. Without last year, his stolen base percentage is 77.7% -101/130 - making me believe his true skill level is about 80%. I really doubt he repeats what he did last year. Taveras is bad new bears for the reds offense

I completely agree, if he plays everyday, I see him putting up Patterson like numbers, around 50-60 runs created. I was just using the RC formula with his career numbers and 700 PA's. These were not my projections, I am not smart enough for that. I was just providing what the RC formula says based on their career numbers and my estimates of their playing time. I am sure many of them will be off quite a bit.

DannyB
01-19-2009, 09:28 AM
NOT ENOUGH!!!

Nasty_Boy
01-19-2009, 12:22 PM
There's not enough guys in that offense who can knock in runs. They're a bat or two short.


I think the problem is there won't be anyone to knock in... This team is filled with out machines. Given the opportunites, if he is kept in the 3 hole, Joey could easily knock in 100+. Bruce is a guy that is best suited for the 5 hole if the Reds have guys like Joey and Edwin getting on base in front of him. He's going to have a good SLG% and if he's in the .330 OBP range he will drive in a good amount of runs.

The problem is Dusty will construct the line with out makers (like BP and even Bruce) in between on base guys like Joey and Edwin. Not to mention that Willy is a sink hole at the top of the lineup, and JHJ is made of glass and he may regress to his career norms. This is why a guy like Abreu would be huge hitting either in front or behind Votto. If both guys are getting on base at .385 clips or better, there will be tons of chances for the out machines to make those productive outs. I expect an improvement from Bruce and hopeully Edwin's walk rate continues to climb while getting a little more lucky on his BABIP, this would make a huge difference in the offense. Of course the key is BP and his adjustments and his spot in the lineup. He could be a superstar, but he's too in love with himself and going 30-30 that he doesn't give the team quality ABs even though he is full of talent that could make him a truely special player. So as of right now, I see the Reds scoring in the low 700's or about 4.35 runs a game.

bigredbunter
01-19-2009, 02:43 PM
Using career numbers (minor league for Dickerson), estimates of PA's, and basic RC formula, the Reds should score 706 runs next year, which is 4.35 runs a game.

However, those are very rough estimates and certain players should improve, like Bruce, and some will not achieve their career numbers, like Taveras, and there will be injuries and breakthrough seasons and surprises like Hairston last year. So, basically, it is hard to say, but without any changes, the odds are that the Reds will score between 690-720 runs next season. Add a big bat, and that should add around 20-30 runs.



Hernandez 48
Hanigan 33.4
Votto 103.4
Phillips 77
EE 79.5
Gonzo 41.1
Kepp 32.9
Hairston 30.5
Dickerson 52.2
Taveras 72
Bruce 85.3
Hopper 34.4
Janish 8.5
Pitchers 8
Total 706.2

BTW, they scored 704 last year.

So let's say the offense hangs around 705 or so (that is assuming they don't pick up a significant bat before the season starts)....Last year the pitching staff gave up 800 runs.

They would probably have to shed 150 runs (from pitching) in order to be anywhere near the division champs. If they shed 100, it may put them in contention for a wildcard spot--
How likely is that?

Well, if the reds reduced the number of runs they gave up by 150, while holding steady offensively---then they would essentially be the 2008 Dodgers. The 08 Dodgers, btw, had an incredible front four pitchers in terms of avoiding runs. It's like we're banking on Volquez to repeat, Harang to return to form, Arroyo to repeat his 06 year, and Cueto to take a major step forward (to say nothing of the bullpen). I really hope all of that happens...Though, it's a big bill.

The stars would really have to align...This is why I thought the Taveras signing was so devastating. Jocketty made it that much harder to turn that run differential around by, essentially, treading water (offensively) in CF. He didn't have to be satisfied with an RS for the season of 705...But, he apparently thought that was good enough.
(Not trying to turn this into a discussion of "slick" Willy Taveras)

redsfandan
01-19-2009, 03:22 PM
I personally think 72 is a really high estimate for Taveras, I'd give him 65 tops. He isn't going to steal an inordinate amount of stolen bases again at an incredible rate. Even with last season, his career stolen base percentage is 82.4% - 169/205. Without last year, his stolen base percentage is 77.7% -101/130 - making me believe his true skill level is about 80%. I really doubt he repeats what he did last year. Taveras is bad new bears for the reds offense
True we shouldn't expect 68 sb at a 90% success rate again but I've seen projections of 40+ sb with a success rate of 81.2-85.4% and that seems reasonable to me. The Reds did pick him up cuz he fits what they want from a leadoff hitter (ability to wreak havoc on the bases) so he'll likely have the opportunity to reach those #'s.


I completely agree, if he plays everyday, I see him putting up Patterson like numbers, around 50-60 runs created. I was just using the RC formula with his career numbers and 700 PA's. These were not my projections, I am not smart enough for that. I was just providing what the RC formula says based on their career numbers and my estimates of their playing time. I am sure many of them will be off quite a bit.

Except Patterson only had 29 runs created last year. Based on the projections at fangraphs I have Taveras at around 60 runs created for '09. Still nothing to write home about but it would be 30+ runs better than what we received from his predecessor.

bigredbunter
01-19-2009, 03:30 PM
I have Taveras at around 60 runs created for '09. Still nothing to write home about but it would be 30+ runs better than what we received from his predecessor.

and still...Patterson's 08 season was one of the worst seasons for a regular player (366 ABs) in recent memory.

TheNext44
01-19-2009, 03:41 PM
So let's say the offense hangs around 705 or so (that is assuming they don't pick up a significant bat before the season starts)....Last year the pitching staff gave up 800 runs.

They would probably have to shed 150 runs (from pitching) in order to be anywhere near the division champs. If they shed 100, it may put them in contention for a wildcard spot--
How likely is that?

Well, if the reds reduced the number of runs they gave up by 150, while holding steady offensively---then they would essentially be the 2008 Dodgers. The 08 Dodgers, btw, had an incredible front four pitchers in terms of avoiding runs. It's like we're banking on Volquez to repeat, Harang to return to form, Arroyo to repeat his 06 year, and Cueto to take a major step forward (to say nothing of the bullpen). I really hope all of that happens...Though, it's a big bill.

The stars would really have to align...This is why I thought the Taveras signing was so devastating. Jocketty made it that much harder to turn that run differential around by, essentially, treading water (offensively) in CF. He didn't have to be satisfied with an RS for the season of 705...But, he apparently thought that was good enough.
(Not trying to turn this into a discussion of "slick" Willy Taveras)

That is as very accurate assessment of the Reds situation of where the Reds stand right now, but I think Jockety agrees with you. Remember he said the #1 priority for the off season was getting a big bat for the middle of the lineup. I think Walt is smart enough to know that Taveras and Hairston are not that. I fully expect the Reds to add a big bat before the season starts. It might be the middle of spring training, but they will add one. That should add 20-30 runs right there.

As to the Reds run prevention. Here is how they might be able to make up what they need to compete.

An outfield of Dickerson/Taveras/Bruce should be worth around 20 runs over Dunn/Patterson/Griffey defensively. Taveras is a little worse than Patterson, but Dickerson and Bruce are way better than Dunn and Griffey.

At SS, if Gonzo is healthy, that should add another 20 runs over Kepp last year. If he is not, then I still think it is slightly better than last year, since Kepp won't be coming off an injury, so maybe 5 runs.

Last year, the Reds fifth starter gave up 160 runs. WOW. If the Reds fifth starer gives up only 120 runs (which would be around a 5.70 ERA) that would save 40 runs.

So just with those three changes, the Reds would save 80 runs (65 if Gonzo is not healthy) from last year. With a big bat added, the Reds would score around 730 and give up 720. That would put them in contention.

redsfandan
01-19-2009, 03:53 PM
My point was only that we can expect 30+ rc from that switch alone since Patterson was so bad. Add 50+ from the pitchers, 10+ from the catchers, ... The run differential will be better but it's more realistic to improve with the plan to expect to contend in 2010.

reds1869
01-19-2009, 04:07 PM
About the same as opposition. I feel this a team that will be .500, plus or minus five games. It will come down to luck more often than I'd like. I don't think we will pour on the runs, but we won't be nearly as bad as many think; people tend to forget that the amount of runs only matters as long as it is bigger than the number other team has posted that day.

Is this a brilliant SABRmetric argument? Of course not. This is my day off, and I don't much feel like thinking. Hope is a better feeling.

redsfandan
01-19-2009, 04:57 PM
About the same as opposition. I feel this a team that will be .500, plus or minus five games. It will come down to luck more often than I'd like. I don't think we will pour on the runs, but we won't be nearly as bad as many think; people tend to forget that the amount of runs only matters as long as it is bigger than the number other team has posted that day.

Is this a brilliant SABRmetric argument? Of course not. This is my day off, and I don't much feel like thinking. Hope is a better feeling.

We'll have to be pretty lucky to reach 86 wins but I agree that we won't be as bad as some think if we pickup a decent bat (Nady/Abreu) for left. Say 80-82 wins.

Emin3mShady07
01-19-2009, 05:54 PM
So let's say the offense hangs around 705 or so (that is assuming they don't pick up a significant bat before the season starts)....Last year the pitching staff gave up 800 runs.

They would probably have to shed 150 runs (from pitching) in order to be anywhere near the division champs. If they shed 100, it may put them in contention for a wildcard spot--
How likely is that?

Well, if the reds reduced the number of runs they gave up by 150, while holding steady offensively---then they would essentially be the 2008 Dodgers. The 08 Dodgers, btw, had an incredible front four pitchers in terms of avoiding runs. It's like we're banking on Volquez to repeat, Harang to return to form, Arroyo to repeat his 06 year, and Cueto to take a major step forward (to say nothing of the bullpen). I really hope all of that happens...Though, it's a big bill.

The stars would really have to align...This is why I thought the Taveras signing was so devastating. Jocketty made it that much harder to turn that run differential around by, essentially, treading water (offensively) in CF. He didn't have to be satisfied with an RS for the season of 705...But, he apparently thought that was good enough.
(Not trying to turn this into a discussion of "slick" Willy Taveras)

Going strictly by the Pythagorean W-L calculation, If the reds score 705 amd give up 650, their W-L would be expected to be 87-75, which may or may not be enough for a wild card (I would say you need about 90 for a wild card and 95 to clinch a division). But, the pitching and defense have to step up for anything like that to happen. And Next44, true Taveras is better than Patterson last year, but the issue is that with this offensive projection we are not arguing Corey V. Willy anymore, we are arguing Willy V. Willy projection, making the 705 runs the starting point.

bigredbunter
01-19-2009, 07:47 PM
Going strictly by the Pythagorean W-L calculation, If the reds score 705 amd give up 650, their W-L would be expected to be 87-75, which may or may not be enough for a wild card (I would say you need about 90 for a wild card and 95 to clinch a division). But, the pitching and defense have to step up for anything like that to happen. And Next44, true Taveras is better than Patterson last year, but the issue is that with this offensive projection we are not arguing Corey V. Willy anymore, we are arguing Willy V. Willy projection, making the 705 runs the starting point.

I would even say it's Willy V. Dickerson (I know, I know...beating a dead horse)--If you're planning on treading water (or at the most banking on +30 RC), then just stick Dickerson in CF. He's likely to do that.

705 was the starting point. Willy won't significantly change that side of things. The only thing his signing accomplished was to make the margin of error very slim for Reds pitching in 2009.

I'm tired of contention always being 2 years away.