Jocketty: Reds are at payroll budget

[LawFive]

As passed along by C Trent:

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/


I guess this confirms no signing of Abreu, or trading for Swisher unless equal dollars went back the other way.

[membengal]

And...scene.

Good work from C. Trent, as that makes it clear that the roster we see now is what we will roughly see in April.

Gomes/Dickerson in LF? Hairston in LF?

I sure hope it is the former and not the latter.

[LawFive]

I think most of us are realists and probably knew this in our hearts, but there was always that one tiny glimmer of hope that one more move was on the way...Oh, well. Business as usual I guess.

[princeton]

about two weeks ago, they were talking about Abreu.

so which is it? they are at payroll budget, but will exceed that for the right player?

[Always Red]

Must be a revised budget.

[WMR]

Should be an exciting season!

[nate]

Here's the text of it:


Well, not really...

Anway, a little Thursday schedule. I was just downtown at GABP as the Reds caravan was taking off -- I'll have stuff from Bob Castellini, Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker here in a little bit. And then we'll have stories on Brandon Phillips and Yonder Alonso here in the next couple of days.

Anyway, here's the quick stuff I have from Bob, Walt and Dusty.

All three mentioned that the team is now at its budget for payroll, so don't expect any big singings.

I asked Jocketty that with the price tag coming down, would there be any interest in bringing back Adam Dunn: "I don't think so," Jocketty said.

Jocketty said Dr. Tim Kremcheck will examine Alex Gonzalez in Miami this weekend, but reports are good. Castellini didn't sound as hopeful in regards to Gonzalez.

Dusty Baker said there could be a platoon in left with Gomes, Dickerson and Hopper/Hairston. He also said Willy Taveras is his centerfielder and leadoff batter.

I'll have more later (including TOL's little brother -- Afternoon Delight)

[M2]

about two weeks ago, they were talking about Abreu.

so which is it? they are at payroll budget, but will exceed that for the right player?

They may consider themselves over budget and are already thinking about shedding salary in July.

[Always Red]

They may consider themselves over budget and are already thinking about shedding salary in July.

Yeah, they can dump some expensive pitching (Arroyo, Harang).

But we'll still have Willie in CF, and leading off!

[IowaRed]

I'm shocked that the manager has already named the speedy CF as the leadoff hitter

[Unassisted]

The Cincinnati.com Reds newsletter just sent me the following:



Breaking News:

---------------------------------------------------------------

January 22, 2009 05:22

Reds roster frozen by economy

Bob Castellini, the Reds chief executive officer, said for the first time this morning that the struggling economy is affecting the Reds' budget, and that fans should not expect any major additions to the club at this point.

http://news.enquirer.com/article/20090122/SPT04/301220085/-1/

That links to this Fay article.



Economy affecting Reds

By John Fay • January 22, 2009

Bob Castellini, the Reds chief executive officer, said for the first time this morning that the struggling economy is affecting the Reds' budget, and suggested that fans should not expect any major additions to the club at this point.

General manager Walt Jocketty reiterated the message and said the club is already close to budget as far as the payroll goes.

The comments were made as the team prepared to depart this morning for its biggest caravan ever, and illustrate the club's reduced expectations from December, when it looked as if the payroll might reach some $80 million.

Last year's player payroll was $74 million to start the year. Jocketty said he now thinks the club will be in that range for the 2009 season, maybe a bit more.

"It's what it was last year," Jocketty said. "In fact, it may be a little more."

Asked if the economy is affecting the team, Castellini said, "You bet."

"We've got get the top line (revenue up). We're focused on it," Castellini said. "We've got just about the whole team we anticipated we were able to put together."

Castellini has been focused on a quick turnaround since he took over the team, although he says that was somewhat overplayed by the media.

"We want to win," Castellini said. "That's our message. I knew we couldn't win right away. You want to, but it takes time. I said we want to win -- not overnight. You guys took that out of context."

The Reds aren't saying they're writing off the 2009 season, but the focus is on the future.

"I don't think you can put a timetable on it," Jocketty said. "It takes time to build a competitive organization -- a consistently competitive organization. You can do some things for instant success. But you can't sustain. We want to build the organization to sustain success and be a club that's in the hunt every year. We really trying to develop our younger players and utilize the talent we have in the organization.

"I think in our division right now, it could be any interesting year. We'll see what happens."

Again, the Reds will go to spring training with what they have.

"We've got a lot of new guys," Jocketty said. "We've got a lot of things to look at. I'd like to get into camp and see where are before we start tinkering."

[WMR]

The Cincinnati.com Reds newsletter just sent me the following:

:lol:

The Power of Tradition!!!!!!!

[NJReds]

Reds fever. Catch it!

[cumberlandreds]

Should be an exciting season!

If you call 72-90 exciting. Very disappointing.:(

[LawFive]

Fay has a little more in his blog:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07

Basically says they are now factoring in the economy, and are more focused on the future. Castellini backtracks when asked aboout how soon they will be competitive - says the media took "win now" out of his context.

My comeback is this: if they had subbed Roenicke for Weathers, save 4 mil. Use Dickerson instead of Tavares, save 2 mil. That's 6 of the 8 or so mil an Abreau would have cost, and they're instantly in the mix.

[Reds4Life]

The Cincinnati Reds: Poised to be one of the worst offenses in the National League.

Come join the excitement!

[WMR]

Fay has a little more in his blog:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07

Basically says they are now factoring in the economy, and are more focused on the future. Castellini backtracks when asked aboout how soon they will be competitive - says the media took "win now" out of his context.

My comeback is this: if they had subbed Roenicke for Weathers, save 4 mil. Use Dickerson instead of Tavares, save 2 mil. That's 6 of the 8 or so mil an Abreau would have cost, and they're instantly in the mix.

The Reds would spend their payroll flex on crappy and/or unneeded players??? Perish the thought!

[NJReds]

Fay has a little more in his blog:
Castellini backtracks when asked aboout how soon they will be competitive - says the media took "win now" out of his context.


Ugh. I guess it depends on your definition of "win" and "now".

[M2]

Castellini backtracks when asked aboout how soon they will be competitive - says the media took "win now" out of his context.

Maybe he was actually saying "winnow" and the media added a space in the middle where one shouldn't have been.

[WMR]

The Cincinnati Reds: Poised to be one of the worst offenses in the National League.

Come join the excitement!

It's sort of ingenuous in a way... build a crappy enough ballclub so that when your attendance numbers stink you can just blame it on the economy; the same excuse you used to avoid building a competitive ballclub in the first place!

[Unassisted]

Maybe he was actually saying "winnow" and the media added a space in the middle where one shouldn't have been.You might have something there. IIRC, Wayne-O got winnowed right before he said that.

[WMR]

You might have something there. IIRC, Wayne-O got winnowed right before he said that.

:lol:

[cumberlandreds]

It's sort of ingenuous in a way... build a crappy enough ballclub so that when your attendance numbers stink you can just blame it on the economy; the same excuse you used to avoid building a competitive ballclub in the first place!

Blaming the economy is a cop out. Yes, it's not good but like LawFive pointed how some creativity in the salaries could have gotten someone like Abreu. Unless Votto and/or Bruce break out and have 35 HR and 120 RBI seasons this team isn't going to score at all. And if Volquez,Arroyo and Cueto are subpar from last season then we are looking at, easily, 100 losses.

[penantboundreds]

sorry for being optomistic on previous posts this off-season, what a load

[Always Red]

Castellini backtracks when asked aboout how soon they will be competitive - says the media took "win now" out of his context.


Which is why he fired O'Brien, and Narron, and Krivsky .

It's the media's fault, eh?

I've got to tell you, I have been a Castellini fan and somewhat of an apologist for him all along, but this is the most disappointing thing I have heard him say yet.

Blaming the media?? Lame-O :rolleyes:

[WMR]

Which is why he fired O'Brien, and Narron, and Krivsky .

It's the media's fault, eh?

I've got to tell you, I have been a Castellini fan and somewhat of an apologist for him all along, but this is the most disappointing thing I have heard him say yet.

Blaming the media?? Lame-O :rolleyes:

How do you take "WIN NOW" out of context? :p:

[membengal]

Fay has a little more in his blog:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07

Basically says they are now factoring in the economy, and are more focused on the future. Castellini backtracks when asked aboout how soon they will be competitive - says the media took "win now" out of his context.

My comeback is this: if they had subbed Roenicke for Weathers, save 4 mil. Use Dickerson instead of Tavares, save 2 mil. That's 6 of the 8 or so mil an Abreau would have cost, and they're instantly in the mix.

John Fay, making a ton of sense. You go on with your bad self, John.

ETA: And, when even John Fay figures it out, well...

[Chip R]

Dusty Baker said there could be a platoon in left with Gomes, Dickerson and Hopper/Hairston. He also said Willy Taveras is his centerfielder and leadoff batter.



Glad Dusty ended the suspense for us.

[OUReds]

Ugh. I guess it depends on your definition of "win" and "now".

:bowrofl:

[Matt700wlw]

Glad Dusty ended the suspense for us.

He probably couldn't wait to make it official.

The 4 way platoon in LF may confuse him, though....

[Falls City Beer]

Yep, huge joke.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Why does anyone believe what Jocketty says to the media? Like when he obviously lied last year and said he didn't know the date when they could bring up Jay Bruce and not make him eligible for arbitration a year early, and then they called up Bruce a day after the deadline. Good stuff from Jocketty at times. The Reds might very well be done adding pieces for the 2009 season (in fact I think they are) but I don't put any stock into what Jocketty tells the press.

[membengal]

Are you ignoring what Cast just said to the press?

[M2]

If I'm a club with some money, I'm approaching the Reds with an offer for Aaron Harang.

Say the Mets put Jon Niese and Nick Evans on the table (and offer to take Weathers too). Or maybe the Angels pony up Nick Adenhart. Or the Orioles come with Jake Arrieta. Or the Dodgers package Scott Elbert and Chin-Lung Hu.

On a separate note, this could be the precursor to Homer Bailey getting a full season trial with the Reds.

[BCubb2003]

"I don't think anyone in the organization is happy with the results in a won-loss basis. We've had two losing seasons under the new ownership. We started this season poorly ... and that's the primary reason we made the change."

"This has been a very tough decision. And Wayne Krivsky did a whale of a job in so many areas. We've just come to a point where ... we're just not going to lose any more."

[top6]

I continue to maintain that Castellini is the worst pro sports owner in Cincinnati. Say what you will about him, but Mike Brown is what he is, and doesn't really try to hide it. And he would never, ever, overpay for a head coach and inevitably useless players like Patterson and Taveras. And he doesn't fire people because they can't turn garbage into gold in 1 year (although Mike Brown suffers from the opposite fault - excessive loyalty - but I'll take that continuity over the rutterless, directionless ship that Castellini is sailing).

[Blitz Dorsey]

Are you ignoring what Cast just said to the press?

Hello looooooooong summer.

[Always Red]

If I'm a club with some money, I'm approaching the Reds with an offer for Aaron Harang.

Say the Mets put Jon Niese and Nick Evans on the table (and offer to take Weathers too). Or maybe the Angels pony up Nick Adenhart. Or the Orioles come with Jake Arrieta.

On a separate note, this could be the precursor to Homer Bailey getting a full season trial with the Reds.

I can see that.

If the Reds are throwing in the towel on 2009, they might as well get what they can in young arms and bats for both Harang and Arroyo.

I wonder if it's too late for me to get a refund on that 20 game pack I renewed last month? I'm thinking about putting my energies into being a fan in the future, rather than right now.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I continue to maintain that Castellini is the worst pro sports owner in Cincinnati. Say what you will about him, but Mike Brown is what he is, and doesn't really try to hide it. And he would never, ever, overpay for a head coach and inevitably useless players like Patterson and Taveras. And he doesn't fire people because they can't turn garbage into gold in 1 year (although Mike Brown suffers from the opposite fault - excessive loyalty - but I'll take that continuity over the rutterless, directionless ship that Castellini is sailing).

No, Mike Brown is the worst owner in all of professional sports. When Castellini is the owner of a pro team for almost 20 years in a league that has a salary cap and a lot of revenue sharing and still completely sucks, we can talk. As of now, he is not in the same ballpark as Mike Brown when it comes to incompetency.

[RFS62]

"The losing stops NOW!"

Not sure exactly how that could be taken out of context.

I think we got the context exactly right. I think Krivsky understood his context pretty well also.

[nate]

"The losing stops. Now, when's lunch?"

[RFS62]

"The losing stops. Now, when's lunch?"



Ooooooooooh. I missed that last part.

[Roy Tucker]

I can't say this is a surprise. This handwriting has been slowly appearing on the wall the last month or so.

I'm also not entirely happy since this appears to put the club at a competitive disadvantage for 2009. But I understand. Times are tough.

I wonder if other clubs are going to make such statements and/or actions?

[Unassisted]

"The losing stops NOW!"

Not sure exactly how that could be taken out of context.

The 2009 Reds FO mantra is similar. It just includes the word "money." Maybe that was the context we're accused of failing to grasp in '08? :D

[Chip R]

I can't say this is a surprise. This handwriting has been slowly appearing on the wall the last month or so.

I'm also not entirely happy since this appears to put the club at a competitive disadvantage for 2009. But I understand. Times are tough.



It isn't surprising. I'm disappointed they won't be contending but I still plan on going to games and enjoying them. It could be worse. There could be a strike or lockout.

[lollipopcurve]

This could mean we see some ramped-up promotions for top prospects who do well through the first part of 09. I'd be good with that.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I'm not ready to blame Castellini. He took over a pretty bad franchise. Getting free agents to come here for a reasonable price is tough. We were strapped with overpriced players like Griffey and Dunn (especially Griffey) that Cast inherited. The farm system has greatly improved, but for years was a joke. We got nothing out of our first-round draft picks for about a 10-year stretch. The best owner in baseball couldn't have turned things around here. Well, unless they had bottomless pockets. That's what it takes in baseball -- it really is that simple. There will be teams like us that have good years like the Rockies and Rays, but it will be one-and-done. That is what teams like the Reds hope for. To catch lightning in a bottle for one year and get somewhat lucky. Then you have the 5-7 teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, etc. that actually play for real and try and build long-term winners like we saw in the past with the Reds. It's the system that is broke. Blaming Cast is misplaced IMO. I completely understand the frustration though because I'm a diehard and the whole thing sucks.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I continue to maintain that Castellini is the worst pro sports owner in Cincinnati. Say what you will about him, but Mike Brown is what he is, and doesn't really try to hide it. And he would never, ever, overpay for a head coach and inevitably useless players like Patterson and Taveras. And he doesn't fire people because they can't turn garbage into gold in 1 year (although Mike Brown suffers from the opposite fault - excessive loyalty - but I'll take that continuity over the rutterless, directionless ship that Castellini is sailing).


Exactly. He pays Dusty Baker $3.5M to play Taveras ($2M) everyday at leadoff, and be forced to use Weathers ($4M), because he's an expensive veteran.

$9.5M on what, exactly? Then cry about the economy being bad. That's priceless. It would be hilarious if not so pathetically sad.

[WMR]

I'm not ready to blame Castellini. He took over a pretty bad franchise. Getting free agents to come here for a reasonable price is tough. We were strapped with overpriced players like Griffey and Dunn (especially Griffey) that Cast inherited. The farm system has greatly improved, but for years was a joke. We got nothing out of our first-round draft picks for about a 10-year stretch. The best owner in baseball couldn't have turned things around here. Well, unless they had bottomless pockets. That's what it takes in baseball -- it really is that simple. There will be teams like us that have good years like the Rockies and Rays, but it will be one-and-done. That is what teams like the Reds hope for. To catch lightning in a bottle for one year and get somewhat lucky. Then you have the 5-7 teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, etc. that actually play for real and try and build long-term winners like we saw in the past with the Reds. It's the system that is broke. Blaming Cast is misplaced IMO. I completely understand the frustration though because I'm a diehard and the whole thing sucks.

Dunn's overpriced now? :eek:

Name me one of the two dozen or so crappy ballplayers the Reds have paid millions of dollars to over the past several years to stink up the joint, but don't call one of the few guys who brought ACTUAL TALENT to the table an "overpriced player."

[RFS62]

I'm not ready to blame Castellini. He took over a pretty bad franchise. Getting free agents to come here for a reasonable price is tough. We were strapped with overpriced players like Griffey and Dunn (especially Griffey) that Cast inherited. The farm system has greatly improved, but for years was a joke. We got nothing out of our first-round draft picks for about a 10-year stretch. The best owner in baseball couldn't have turned things around here. Well, unless they had bottomless pockets. That's what it takes in baseball -- it really is that simple. There will be teams like us that have good years like the Rockies and Rays, but it will be one-and-done. That is what teams like the Reds hope for. To catch lightning in a bottle for one year and get somewhat lucky. Then you have the 5-7 teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, etc. that actually play for real and try and build long-term winners like we saw in the past with the Reds. It's the system that is broke. Blaming Cast is misplaced IMO. I completely understand the frustration though because I'm a diehard and the whole thing sucks.



I don't think he was being deceitful. I think he was just yapping away without understanding the consequences, such as "the losing stops NOW" being a catch phrase that would dog him in the future.

His PR skills are practically non-existent.

I don't doubt his commitment to winning. I just doubt his understanding of how that gets done.

And I don't blame any business owner for being very, very afraid right now.

[membengal]

Silly fans, for listening to words. Silly media, for reporting the words. It's all everyone else's fault. But Bob's, who actually spoke the words.

[WMR]

Exactly. He pays Dusty Baker $3.5M to play Taveras ($2M) everyday at leadoff, and be forced to use Weathers ($4M), because he's an expensive veteran.

$9.5M on what, exactly? Then cry about the economy being bad. That's priceless. It would be hilarious if not so pathetically sad.

It's just one big epic fail. And those 3 people you outlined are just the tip of the iceburg.

[Chip R]

This could mean we see some ramped-up promotions for top prospects who do well through the first part of 09. I'd be good with that.


You do know who the manager is, don't you?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I'm not ready to blame Castellini. He took over a pretty bad franchise. Getting free agents to come here for a reasonable price is tough. We were strapped with overpriced players like Griffey and Dunn (especially Griffey) that Cast inherited.

Dunn was paid on average $5M per year to be one of the most productive hitters in baseball. I'll give you Griffey, but Dunn overpriced? Nope, not even close.

[WMR]

Dunn was paid on average $5M per year to be one of the most productive hitters in baseball. I'll give you Griffey, but Dunn overpriced? Nope, not even close.

But Marty says he was stealing money from the Reds? ;)

[Always Red]

You do know who the manager is, don't you?

Yes, the manager is the SINGLE ONE GUY who does need to "win now" so as to keep his current job.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Dunn's overpriced now? :eek:

Name me one of the two dozen or so crappy ballplayers the Reds have paid millions of dollars to over the past several years to stink up the joint, but don't call one of the few guys who brought ACTUAL TALENT to the table an "overpriced player."

I said especially Griffey. I didn't mind what we were paying Dunn to be honest, but have you seen what his value is on the open market? If we were paying him $13 million and no one is willing to pay him that much, that is pretty much the definition of overpaid. Sometimes take emotion out of it and try and look at the facts.

[AmarilloRed]

This has to mean that the Reds must have reached private deals to avoid arbitration with both Weathers and Edwin. Say Weathers 4.5 million and Edwin 3.5 million, there's the 8 million the Reds had left on the payroll.

[WMR]

I said especially Griffey. I didn't mind what we were paying Dunn to be honest, but have you seen what his value is on the open market? If we were paying him $13 million and no one is willing to pay him that much, that is pretty much the definition of overpaid. Sometimes take emotion out of it and try and look at the facts.

The overall market has shifted. Doesn't mean that what PRODUCTIVE players were paid in the past somehow makes them "overpaid" now for the work they did in previous seasons at previous season prices.

[nate]

I said especially Griffey. I didn't mind what we were paying Dunn to be honest, but have you seen what his value is on the open market? If we were paying him $13 million and no one is willing to pay him that much, that is pretty much the definition of overpaid. Sometimes take emotion out of it and try and look at the facts.

So the economy has nothing to do with it?

[membengal]

Can we please not make this another Dunn thread? Please?

[Always Red]

Can we please not make this another Dunn thread? Please?

too late for that. Besides, what else is there for us to talk about? :D

[Blitz Dorsey]

Dunn was paid on average $5M per year to be one of the most productive hitters in baseball. I'll give you Griffey, but Dunn overpriced? Nope, not even close.

Oh, we're counting his first few years? Dunn at $5 million, I agree, not overpaid. Dunn at $13 million like last year, overpaid. That was the point I was trying to make, sorry if I was unclear. Again, I personally didn't mind what we were paying Dunn, but seeing his value on the open market makes it clear to me that the Reds were paying him more last year than he was worth.

[membengal]

How about the 2009 team?

Mario-rijo had a really good post guessing at the payroll for 2009 on the EE/Weathers thread. I am going to paste it here, as it seems absolutely perfect for this thread. Hope that is okay.

Mario-rijo wrote:


According to Cots these are the figures for payroll starting the year before Castellini took over (rounded to the nearest hundred thousand).

2005: 61.9 Million
(Castellini and company takes over 11/05)
2006: 60.9 Million
2007: 68.9 Million
2008: 74.1 Million

So let's see if we can get an idea of where we are now to see what at most we can expect to happen moving forward.

2009 Payroll obligations for former players:
Stanton - 500K
Ross - 375 K
Castro - 100 K

Total 975 K

Payments from other clubs:
2 Million from O's for Hernandez

Pen:
Cordero - 12 Million
Weathers - 3 to 4.6 Million
Rhodes 2 Million
Lincoln 1.5 Million
Burton 400K
Bray 400K
Masset 400K

Total 19.7 - 21.3 Million

Rotation:
Harang - 11 Million
Arroyo - 9.5 Million
Volquez - 400K
Cueto - 400K
Owings - 400K

Total 21.7 Million

Starting 8:
Hernandez - 8 Million
Votto - 400K
Phillips - 5 Million
Gonzo - 5.375 Million
EE - 2.55 to 3.7 Million
Gomes - 800K
Taveras - 2.25 to 2.5 Million
Bruce - 400K

Total 25.025 - 26.175

Bench:
Hanigan - 400K
Dickerson - 400K
Keppinger - 400K
Rosales - 400K
Hairston - 2 Million

Total 3.6 Million

Other:
Alonso 400K

Grand total

69.15 - 72.15

Guesstimated salary with final arb. #'s
71 Million

Guesstimated cap
80 Million

Total available no more than 9 million but probably less than that due to the economy. Also have to take into account guys who will be up and down and prorate that time at the major league from 400K per.

Summary:
Based on everything mentioned and the timing of the Gomes signing I'm guessing we are done. Unless we eventually come to the conclusion Gonzo can't go and we have that money insured we are just about tapped out. We might be able to squeak out a Nady trade (reportedly avoided arb. for 6.65 million) but unless the Yankees take on a little of that I doubt it. So my guess is what you see is what you get.

Anyone disagree or see anything I am missing?

[gm]

"We want to win," Castellini said. "That's our message. I knew we couldn't win right away. You want to, but it takes time. I said we want to win -- not overnight. You guys took that out of context."

So much for "mama" not being "happy"

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Oh, we're counting his first few years? Dunn at $5 million, I agree, not overpaid. Dunn at $13 million like last year, overpaid. That was the point I was trying to make, sorry if I was unclear. Again, I personally didn't mind what we were paying Dunn, but seeing his value on the open market makes it clear to me that the Reds were paying him more last year than he was worth.

The last I'll touch this topic on this thread.

$13M in 2008 is not the same as $13M in 2009. See: Pat Burrell and current 401K balance for evidence.

[membengal]

Really good work by mario-rijo, and excellent guess that the Reds were done. The payroll will be around $71 million or so, even with the Weathers and EE arbitrations figured in.

Could they have done better with the $71 million they are spending? Oh my, yes. And that's the frustration.

I totally get that Cast might not want to go to $80 million in this economic climate. Good for him for being cognizant of the economic realities. But, man, I wish Jock had spent smart on what he did have to spend. And he gets a major FAIL from me on that count...

Seriously, fellas, take the Dunn stuff to the Dunn thread. Please.

[OUReds]

More good news from Castellini via Trent (http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2009/01/22/qa_with_reds_ceo_bob_castellini).

CTR: Are you happy with the club that's been put together for this season?

BC: Yes. The shortstop is a big question mark, but Jerry (Hairston Jr.) is here to play shortstop if Alex (Gonzalez) isn't ready. This is a very delicate problem he's got, this orthopedic thing in his knee. It's difficult to ascertain or predict if he's going to play or not. He's trying hard, there's no lack of effort or desire.

[Blitz Dorsey]

So the economy has nothing to do with it?

No, it has something to do with it, but I'm not ready to say that's the only reason that 30 teams are not interested in Dunn at "even close to his price" according to several published reports. Apparently he wants $14 mil per year and no one wants to go above 10. The economy is playing a role in that, but I think it's more to do with that 30 MLB GMs do not have as high of an opinion of Dunn as most of us did while he played for the Reds. He was probably a little bit overvalued here, a little bit overpaid. I'm basing that on his interest on the open market. All it takes is one and he hasn't come close to finding it yet.

EDIT: Sorry, this is the last thing I will post about Dunn in this thread.

[jojo]

The media took "win now" out of his context.

[Chip R]

I totally get that Cast might not want to go to $80 million in this economic climate. Good for him for being cognizant of the economic realities. But, man, I wish Jock had spent smart on what he did have to spend. And he gets a major FAIL from me on that count...


I think this is actually a rare time where a sports franchise can plead poverty and people will sympathize.



Seriously, fellas, take the Dunn stuff to the Dunn thread. Please.


Yes, please.

[westofyou]

Let's please debate Adam Dunn elsewhere, he's the Kudzu of Reds Zone and invades every thread despite not being a Red for over 5 months now.

[membengal]

I think this is actually a rare time where a sports franchise can plead poverty and people will sympathize.





Yes, please.

I do indeed sympathize with the need for a pared down payroll. I do NOT sympathize with spending what little they had on Wily T, say.

[M2]

Ahh, kudzu.

http://library.thinkquest.org/03oct/00946/pic_used/kudzu.gif

[nate]

No, it has something to do with it, but I'm not ready to say that's the only reason that 30 teams are not interested in Dunn at "even close to his price" according to several published reports. Apparently he wants $14 mil per year and no one wants to go above 10. The economy is playing a role in that, but I think it's more to do with that 30 MLB GMs do not have as high of an opinion of Dunn as most of us did while he played for the Reds. He was probably a little bit overvalued here, a little bit overpaid. I'm basing that on his interest on the open market. All it takes is one and he hasn't come close to finding it yet.

I think the economy has more to do with it .

[Roy Tucker]

I do indeed sympathize with the need for a pared down payroll. I do NOT sympathize with spending what little they had on Wily T, say.


Yeah, it puts the off-season moves in a different light.

I just wondered when this realization hit them about the economy. It's almost like they were in mid-plan and then said "uh-oh". If this is what they planned all along, then I'll be critical.

C'est la vie.

[BCubb2003]

The down economy would be an excellent time to make your move, if it levels out larger and smaller markets. If you have the money to buy a baseball team and want to win now, go all in and make it happen while your rivals are retrenching. If you maxed out to buy your team and were hoping to live on the income, it's a different story.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

More good news from Castellini via Trent (http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2009/01/22/qa_with_reds_ceo_bob_castellini).

CTR: Are you happy with the club that's been put together for this season?

BC: Yes. The shortstop is a big question mark, but Jerry (Hairston Jr.) is here to play shortstop if Alex (Gonzalez) isn't ready. This is a very delicate problem he's got, this orthopedic thing in his knee. It's difficult to ascertain or predict if he's going to play or not. He's trying hard, there's no lack of effort or desire.

Rex vestimenta non habet.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I wonder if my man Thom Brennaman is going to stand by his comment that the "Reds are the second-most improved club in the NL Central behind the Cubs."

If we're the second-most improved club in the division, the other teams must have done absolutely nothing this offseason. And come to think of it, the Brewers, Astros, Pirates and Cardinals have not done much this offseason, other than the Brewers signing a washed-up Trevor Hoffman to a one-year/$6 million deal. Hmmm. Maybe I shouldn't make fun of Thommy Boy for that statement. It just sounds ridiculous considering the awful offseason this has been. I suppose the Cubs are going to win the division by about 30 games. And then lose in the divisional round of the playoffs of course.

[Blitz Dorsey]

That money that Alex Gonzalez is stealing from the franchise sure would have helped to go out and get a good LF or pitcher this offseason. What a bust. I've seen 35-year-old running backs more durable than that guy.

[M2]

Yeah, it puts the off-season moves in a different light.

I just wondered when this realization hit them about the economy. It's almost like they were in mid-plan and then said "uh-oh". If this is what they planned all along, then I'll be critical.

C'est la vie.

It really speaks to doing the big things first, doesn't it?

[Chip R]

I do indeed sympathize with the need for a pared down payroll. I do NOT sympathize with spending what little they had on Wily T, say.


Agreed!

[M2]

That money that Alex Gonzalez is stealing from the franchise sure would have helped to go out and get a good LF or pitcher this offseason. What a bust. I've seen 35-year-old running backs more durable than that guy.

A lot of us speculated the third year on that contract would come back to bite the Reds.

[lollipopcurve]

Yes, the manager is the SINGLE ONE GUY who does need to "win now" so as to keep his current job.

Would Jock and Cast do it? Fire Baker and hire LaRussa for 2010?

[AmarilloRed]

The Reds are claiming it's the bad economy:




Bob Castellini, the Reds chief executive officer, said for the first time this morning that the struggling economy is affecting the Reds' budget, and suggested that fans should not expect any major additions to the club at this point.

General manager Walt Jocketty reiterated the message and said the club is already close to budget as far as the payroll goes.

The comments were made as the team prepared to depart this morning for its biggest caravan ever, and illustrate the club's reduced expectations from December, when it looked as if the payroll might reach some $80 million.

Last year's player payroll was $74 million to start the year. Jocketty said he now thinks the club will be in that range for the 2009 season, maybe a bit more.

"It's what it was last year," Jocketty said. "In fact, it may be a little more."

Asked if the economy is affecting the team, Castellini said, "You bet."

"We've got get the top line (revenue up). We're focused on it," Castellini said. "We've got just about the whole team we anticipated we were able to put together."

Castellini has been focused on a quick turnaround since he took over the team, although he says that was somewhat overplayed by the media.

"We want to win," Castellini said. "That's our message. I knew we couldn't win right away. You want to, but it takes time. I said we want to win -- not overnight. You guys took that out of context."

The Reds aren't saying they're writing off the 2009 season, but the focus is on the future.

"I don't think you can put a timetable on it," Jocketty said. "It takes time to build a competitive organization -- a consistently competitive organization. You can do some things for instant success. But you can't sustain. We want to build the organization to sustain success and be a club that's in the hunt every year. We really trying to develop our younger players and utilize the talent we have in the organization.

"I think in our division right now, it could be any interesting year. We'll see what happens."

Again, the Reds will go to spring training with what they have.

"We've got a lot of new guys," Jocketty said. "We've got a lot of things to look at. I'd like to get into camp and see where are before we start tinkering."

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090122/SPT04/301220085/-1/NLETTER06?source=nletter-breakingnews

[membengal]

Here's the other big picture thing that is really bothering me. Again, asking the eternal question from edabbs...why not cash in your big dollar chips that have value, i.e., Harang and Arroyo, and go with a youth movement that really reduces payroll and gives them flex for the future?

Have a, um, "plan"?

As it stands, at $71 million, they are betwixt and between, eternally, running to catch their tails and hoping to get to .500.

I am really disappointed by the lack of direction, for the umpteenth year in a row.

If Cast wanted to "win now" and was willing to spend to try and do that, bully for him.

If Cast wants to pare it back and be fiscally sane while building for the future, do that, and bully for him.

But this middle course? Not acceptable. And not a plan. Really frustrating.

[OnBaseMachine]

It looks like Bob Castellini is no different than previous owners.

What a crappy job by Walt Jocketty. Can we please get rid of him now and hire a younger GM? Bring in a Paul DePodesta or Chris Antonetti or a David Forst.

[dsmith421]

<clutching Xavier season tickets>

Serenity now serenity now serenity now serenity now

[Chip R]

I am really disappointed by the lack of direction, for the umpteenth year in a row.



Then you should be used to it, right?

[membengal]

Nope. Not when it is Jocketty at the helm. Not when he came in with certain promises from Cast. Not when we were told, "just you wait, until Jock really gets control and see what goodness this off-season will bring"...

[OnBaseMachine]

The Reds finally have a team that could make some noise with a couple good moves and what do they do? Sign Willy Taveras to a 2-year deal. Unbelievable.

[princeton]

let me jump again out of context:

"We've just come to a point where we're not going to lose anymore," Reds owner Bob Castellini said emphatically after firing the GM of the 9-12 Reds.

[Tom Servo]

Well, this is a real kick in the pants. I agree with others, what gets me is the backtracking by Cast. So we fired Krivsky because we weren't going to lose anymore, but we're not going to start winning overnight. It's like a really bad riddle.

[membengal]

let me jump again out of context:

"We've just come to a point where we're not going to lose anymore at cribbage," Reds owner Bob Castellini said emphatically after firing the GM of the 9-12 Reds.

[membengal]

Well, this is a real kick in the pants. I agree with others, what gets me is the backtracking by Cast. So we fired Krivsky because we weren't going to lose anymore, but we're not going to start winning overnight. It's like a really bad riddle.

Kivsky should not have been let go. I wasn't a fan, but for all of his faults, he showed a certain knack for acquiring genuine talent on the cheap that was particularly helpful for this organization...

[Cyclone792]

I wonder if it's too late for me to get a refund on that 20 game pack I renewed last month? I'm thinking about putting my energies into being a fan in the future, rather than right now.

My season ticket renewal package is sitting in the same pile since the day I've received it in the mail.

It's currently unpaid.

When the Reds signed Taveras, there was a 90 percent chance it was going to remain unpaid. What 10 percent chance that was remaining was now finished off today after hearing Bob's remarks. I'll still go to some games, but I'm not forking over a bunch of cash upfront for a big package this season. It has nothing to do with the economy for me either and everything to do with my aggravation with this franchise.



Silly fans, for listening to words. Silly media, for reporting the words. It's all everyone else's fault. But Bob's, who actually spoke the words.

Bob's been around Dusty Baker too much already. The "it's everyone's fault but my own" mantra seems to be taking over in Reds Nation.



<clutching Xavier season tickets>

Serenity now serenity now serenity now serenity now

I don't blame you. The more I think about it, the money I was going to spend on 2009 Reds season tickets will now likely instead be spent on 2009 UC football season tickets.

[Sea Ray]

Nobody should be shocked at this. The main problem with baseball these days is the inequity of payroll resources among the 30 teams. This means it's a bummer to be a Reds fan. It means we have to lament the signings of Taveras and Weathers whereas the Cubs and Cardinals can absorb such frivilous signings.

I wish I was wrong when I posted this in June but unfortunately I was dead on. I said do not expect payroll to increase from $75 mill. I was challenged on that as you'll see but this announcement today does not surprise me.

<<Originally Posted by Sea Ray
The Reds are committed to $51 million next year including buyouts for 8 players. Assuming they buyout David Ross and Griffey, that's 6 players that you get next year for $51mill. Two of those 6 players are currently on the DL, Freel and A Gon.

Assuming the team payroll is $75mill next year that leaves $24mill for at least 19 players, probably more. If you pay Dunn $15mill then you're looking at $9mill for 18 players. That's basically the ML minimum and that won't work. They'll need to raise EE and Kepp and they'll have to replace guys like Affeldt and Weathers.

Unless some of this excess payroll is dumped like Arroyo, Freel and A Gon, there's no way Dunn fits next year. No way. The numbers just don't add up.>>


http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1680338&postcount=185

[Kc61]

Here's the other big picture thing that is really bothering me. Again, asking the eternal question from edabbs...why not cash in your big dollar chips that have value, i.e., Harang and Arroyo, and go with a youth movement that really reduces payroll and gives them flex for the future?

Have a, um, "plan"?

As it stands, at $71 million, they are betwixt and between, eternally, running to catch their tails and hoping to get to .500.

I am really disappointed by the lack of direction, for the umpteenth year in a row.

If Cast wanted to "win now" and was willing to spend to try and do that, bully for him.

If Cast wants to pare it back and be fiscally sane while building for the future, do that, and bully for him.

But this middle course? Not acceptable. And not a plan. Really frustrating.

Mem, I think there's a plan. They obviously are going with youth. It's just that some of the youth isn't major league ready yet. This year, there's a gap -- the next round of good prospects just isn't ready now.

It's very unusual for a team to cash in all the good veteran players to go completely young. I'm not critical of the Reds for wanting to hold out Harang and Arroyo as attractions to fans for next year.

Keep in mind also that great young prospects are at premium value in this economy. Teams will not part with them in trades, except very rarely. So cashing in Harang likely gets you decent kids, but not top-of-the-line.

I also don't agree with some that the Reds have wasted money on marginal players. Teams like the Reds need to fill positions somehow. They had a lot of holes to fill, they couldn't just say we'll promote some unready AA youngster and hope it works. Over 162 games you need depth, you need players.

If they signed a star for $10 million and didn't have Taveras, Weathers, Lincoln and Hairston, they would need to fill those spots and the fill-ins will likely be inexperienced, unready, possibly mid-level prospects.

Over the course of next season, there will be more transition to younger players. Guys like Arroyo and Weathers, for example, are no lock to be around all year. If they have value at the trade deadline, I'm sure the team will consider moving them then.

The bottom line for fans, myself included, is disappointment right now. But I'll feel better if they continue the signings from Latin America, drafting top talent (even if relatively expensive) and making an occasional trade for a good kid.

Let's face it -- O'Brien, Krivsky and Jocketty have all emphasized youth and redirected the franchise for the better. This emphasis has already paid some dividends and looks like it will continue to help by providing good young talent from within. This is a good direction.

[Unassisted]

let me jump again out of context:

"We've just come to a point where we're not going to lose anymore," Reds owner Bob Castellini said emphatically after firing the GM of the 9-12 Reds.
And now we've come to the point where Bob's not going to lose money anymore. Simple really. :(

[princeton]

Kivsky should not have been let go. I wasn't a fan, but for all of his faults, he showed a certain knack for acquiring genuine talent on the cheap that was particularly helpful for this organization...

I think that when you bring in a new GM and ask for a change of direction, you need to give the new guy some tools to operate with.

[Cyclone792]

The Reds finally have a team that could make some noise with a couple good moves and what do they do? Sign Willy Taveras to a 2-year deal. Unbelievable.

I think what's most frustrating is for years all we've heard is that the Reds cannot compete with even second tier free agents (first tier guys like Sabathia are obviously out of question). Previously, not only would the Reds avoid the top guys in the market, they'd mostly avoid even the next tier guys ... such as a Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, or Orlando Hudson.

Now when the market has finally shifted so much due to the economy, those second tier guys are now much more affordable. Meanwhile, as you stated, the Reds finally have a team that could make some noise with just a few well-positioned moves.

And what are the Reds doing? Crying poor and still not going after those guys to supplement the frame they already have built. It's just totally aggravating and frustrating.

[princeton]

I think what's most frustrating is for years all we've heard is that the Reds cannot compete with even second tier free agents (first tier guys like Sabathia are obviously out of question). Previously, not only would the Reds avoid the top guys in the market, they'd mostly avoid even the next tier guys ... such as a Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, or Orlando Hudson.

Now when the market has finally shifted so much due to the economy, those second tier guys are now much more affordable. Meanwhile, as you stated, the Reds finally have a team that could make some noise with just a few well-positioned moves.

And what are the Reds doing? Crying poor and still not going after those guys to supplement the frame they already have built. It's just totally aggravating and frustrating.


it's very Mike Brown

[membengal]

Mem, I think there's a plan. They obviously are going with youth. It's just that some of the youth isn't major league ready yet. This year, there's a gap -- the next round of good prospects just isn't ready now.

It's very unusual for a team to cash in all the good veteran players to go completely young. I'm not critical of the Reds for wanting to hold out Harang and Arroyo as attractions to fans for next year.

Keep in mind also that great young prospects are at premium value in this economy. Teams will not part with them in trades, except very rarely. So cashing in Harang likely gets you decent kids, but not top-of-the-line.

I also don't agree with some that the Reds have wasted money on marginal players. Teams like the Reds need to fill positions somehow. They had a lot of holes to fill, they couldn't just say we'll promote some unready AA youngster and hope it works. Over 162 games you need depth, you need players.

If they signed a star for $10 million and didn't have Taveras, Weathers, Lincoln and Hairston, they would need to fill those spots and the fill-ins will likely be inexperienced, unready, mid-level prospects.

The bottom line for fans, myself included, is disappointment right now. But I'll feel better if they continue the signings from Latin America, drafting top talent (even if relatively expensive) and making an occasional trade for a good kid.


kc, re: the bolded part above...those are the two players who have readily acknowledged value who could bring a real return to this team, while freeing up payroll.

It comes down to this, from my standpoint, with Arroyo and Harang, they might get to around .500 if everything goes right. Without them, they are looking at 65-75 wins. But with the right haul for them, they are better positioned to make a youth movement pay off, if that is indeed what they are about at this point. If they are going to go for it with the youth, well, then GO for it with the youth. No half measures.

And holding onto Harang and Arroyo to try and snow fans into thinking they have a chance in 2009 is a poor reason to hold onto those two assets...

[Roy Tucker]

I think Castellini is finding out that owning a MLB club isn't so easy.

I also think the Reds have a plan, albeit reactive. It just changes a lot.

[membengal]

I think that when you bring in a new GM and ask for a change of direction, you need to give the new guy some tools to operate with.

I would certainly agree with that, princeton.

[OnBaseMachine]

I think what's most frustrating is for years all we've heard is that the Reds cannot compete with even second tier free agents (first tier guys like Sabathia are obviously out of question). Previously, not only would the Reds avoid the top guys in the market, they'd mostly avoid even the next tier guys ... such as a Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, or Orlando Hudson.

Now when the market has finally shifted so much due to the economy, those second tier guys are now much more affordable. Meanwhile, as you stated, the Reds finally have a team that could make some noise with just a few well-positioned moves.

And what are the Reds doing? Crying poor and still not going after those guys to supplement the frame they already have built. It's just totally aggravating and frustrating.

Good post.

Seriously, if you sign a Bobby Abreu for left field, put Dickerson in center with a platoon partner, and find a shortstop that can play some defense then you got yourself a solid ballclub capable of making a playoff run. Instead, Jocketty wastes money on Willy Taveras and then cries poor. So frustrating.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Absolute CRAP! This organization should just come out and say we have a plan instead of talk about winning every year. I am livid as a fan of this club. Don't come out at the end of 2008 and say we are going after Matt Holliday, Mark Mulder, Garrett Adkins, Jermaine Dye, etc.. if you are not going to do so. This is the reason season ticket sales are down and this is the reason why we will see Buy One Ticket; Get One Free starting in May.. This team is poorly ran and are banking on their youth to get them their 82 wins a year just to say we have a winning record.. YUCK! For months we've been hearing the economy has no reflect on the Reds.. be honest and upfront with your audience. We pay so you can play!

[M2]

Mem, I think there's a plan. They obviously are going with youth.

This offseason has brought in Ramon Hernandez, Arthur Lee Rhodes, Willy Taveras, Laynce Nix and Johnny Gomes. Where's the youth?

It will be obvious the franchise is going with youth when it starts acquiring more young players and stops acting like attending the draft and making the picks allotted to the franchise constitutes a plan.

[M2]

I think what's most frustrating is for years all we've heard is that the Reds cannot compete with even second tier free agents (first tier guys like Sabathia are obviously out of question). Previously, not only would the Reds avoid the top guys in the market, they'd mostly avoid even the next tier guys ... such as a Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, or Orlando Hudson.

Now when the market has finally shifted so much due to the economy, those second tier guys are now much more affordable. Meanwhile, as you stated, the Reds finally have a team that could make some noise with just a few well-positioned moves.

And what are the Reds doing? Crying poor and still not going after those guys to supplement the frame they already have built. It's just totally aggravating and frustrating.

It makes total sense. The market came down to them and they had to run away.

[Roy Tucker]

I guess express our approval/disapproval with ticket buying.

I wish it wasn't that way.

[SMcGavin]

My comeback is this: if they had subbed Roenicke for Weathers, save 4 mil. Use Dickerson instead of Tavares, save 2 mil. That's 6 of the 8 or so mil an Abreau would have cost, and they're instantly in the mix.

This is so frustrating because you are exactly right. And there's been tons of people on this thread saying variants of the same thing. How can we all see this and the people who get paid to run the baseball team can't?

I will also say, Wayne Krivsky got screwed. Wayne showed he was good at increasing the overall talent level of the team. He had not showed an expertise in crafting a well-designed 25-man roster, something needed for the team to "win now". At the time I wasn't too pleased with his firing, but I could see the logic behind it - WK had improved the team's talent, but ownership wanted a guy proven at putting the finishing touches on a winner. Now we see that the team isn't even trying to win now. So the logic behind canning Krivsky no longer holds.

Being a Reds fan sucks.

[Kc61]

kcthose are the two players who have readily acknowledged value who could bring a real return to this team, while freeing up payroll.

...

Mem, to be clear, in this economy I do not think teams will trade top level young talent for Harang or Arroyo. Certainly not in the off-season. If these pitchers are going well, maybe a contender makes such a deal at the deadline in a desperate attempt to make the playoffs. But not now.

Harang is a question mark after last year. Arroyo is an up and down pitcher who finished strong. You could probably get two or three pretty good prospects for them now, but not top drawer guys IMO.

And, given this economy, the Harang and Arroyo contracts would themselves be unattractive to many teams. Most teams are looking for bargains, not $10 plus million contracts.

So, while I see your point, I just don't think it would get the Reds what they need -- more top level young talent.

[flyer85]

I guess this confirms no signing of Abreu, or trading for Swisher :shocked:

[jojo]

The Reds have a plan-it's "Plan C".....

[flyer85]

Dusty Baker said there could be a platoon in left with Gomes, Dickerson and Hopper/Hairston. He also said Willy Taveras is his centerfielder and leadoff batter.No, he's just an extra player

[flyer85]

Blaming the economy is a cop out.
Maybe he invested with Bernie :D

[Chip R]

Mem, I think there's a plan. They obviously are going with youth. It's just that some of the youth isn't major league ready yet. This year, there's a gap -- the next round of good prospects just isn't ready now.



I don't think it's so obvious. Every year we hear the same thing in the last part of the year. They say we give the kids a shot and see if they can play at the major league level. Then they stall and stall and stall while they keep playing the dreck they dredged up during the offseason or had leftover. When they finally bring them up they say that they can't tell since it was just September and they bring in another veteran to fill the bill in the off season.

If they wanted to go with youth they would have gone with Dickerson instead of Tavaras. Hanigan would get the majority of ABs. Perhaps you challange someone like Frazier and put him in LF or 3rd. They aren't going to compete anyway so if they fail, what's the difference in finishing 6th or 4th? And it's possible they could succeed. If the Reds had the kind of talent in the mid 80s now and the current regime was in there, guys like O'Neill and Davis and Larkin and Sabo may have never seen the light of day in favor of some crappy veterans.

[M2]

The Reds have a plan-it's "Plan C".....

No, it's Plan 9 from outer space.

http://i256.photobucket.com/albums/hh171/noneabve1/TorJohnson.jpg

[Kc61]

This offseason has brought in Ramon Hernandez, Arthur Lee Rhodes, Willy Taveras, Laynce Nix and Johnny Gomes. Where's the youth?

It will be obvious the franchise is going with youth when it starts acquiring more young players and stops acting like attending the draft and making the picks allotted to the franchise constitutes a plan.

The youth is a places like Louisville, Carolina, Sarasota, Dayton, Billings, and various Latin American venues.

The guys the Reds signed were short-term stop gaps until the youth is ready.

The Reds have done far more than "attending the draft." For a small market team, they have been extremely aggressive in international signings. They signed some of the most coveted Latin American players last year.

If the Reds traded off their veterans right now for kids, everyone would be disappointed with the return. Teams will not trade top level youth for Harang (who lost 17 games last year and had injuries) and Arroyo (who like Harang had a 4.75 plus ERA). These guys are not CC Sabathia.

Last year the Reds promoted Votto, Cueto, and Bruce and acquired Volquez. I'm quite confident they will aggressively promote guys like Alonso, Valaika, Frazier, Roenicke when ready and there will be more youth soon.

[flyer85]

Nope. Not when it is Jocketty at the helm. Not when he came in with certain promises from Cast.Now we just have to wait for Pujols and LaRussa to show up.

[jojo]

I propose a Redszone bake sale with all proceeds being donated to the Reds operating budget.

Also, I'd like to point out that the AL east will likely be a dogfight between at least 4 teams this coming season. If you're still feeling charitable after the bake sale, you could adopt an AL east team as well. The Rays really are hamstrung by a small budget. Maybe we could float some bake sale money their way too?

:cool:

[flyer85]

It makes total sense. The market came down to them and they had to run away.God forbid Uncle Bob might lose a few dollars :eek:

[flyer85]

Reds need to hire Alicia Silverstone as their new mascot ... it could work on a number of levels.

[Kc61]

I don't think it's so obvious. Every year we hear the same thing in the last part of the year. They say we give the kids a shot and see if they can play at the major league level. Then they stall and stall and stall while they keep playing the dreck they dredged up during the offseason or had leftover. When they finally bring them up they say that they can't tell since it was just September and they bring in another veteran to fill the bill in the off season.

If they wanted to go with youth they would have gone with Dickerson instead of Tavaras. Hanigan would get the majority of ABs. Perhaps you challange someone like Frazier and put him in LF or 3rd. They aren't going to compete anyway so if they fail, what's the difference in finishing 6th or 4th? And it's possible they could succeed. If the Reds had the kind of talent in the mid 80s now and the current regime was in there, guys like O'Neill and Davis and Larkin and Sabo may have never seen the light of day in favor of some crappy veterans.

The Reds obviously don't view Dickerson, Roenicke, and Hanigan as ready to be full time starting players. They are entitled to these views, not every young player is an every day guy.

When the Red believe a young player is a major league regular, they use him that way. They did for Volquez, Cueto, Votto, and Bruce last year.

Dickerson and Hanigan will be on the roster this year and will have opportunities. Taveras is still a young player, he will get a chance to show he can get on base. Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Bray, Burton, maybe Janish or Rosales, will be there. Maybe Massett or Ramirez, also young players, or Owings, still pretty young.

The direction is clear. It just takes time.

[flyer85]

The Reds obviously don't view Dickerson, Roenicke, and Hanigan as ready to be full time starting players. what would we do without Willy?

At least on a rainy day he will be a 'Wet Willy".:p:

[edabbs44]

The Reds obviously don't view Dickerson, Roenicke, and Hanigan as ready to be full time starting players. They are entitled to these views, not every young player is an every day guy.

When the Red believe a young player is a major league regular, they use him that way. They did for Volquez, Cueto, Votto, and Bruce last year.

Dickerson and Hanigan will be on the roster this year and will have opportunities. Taveras is still a young player, he will get a chance to show he can get on base. Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Bray, Burton, maybe Janish or Rosales, will be there. Maybe Massett or Ramirez, also young players, or Owings, still pretty young.

The direction is clear. It just takes time.

This is a very good post...and I would only add that, if this is the case, then (at a minimum) Arroyo should be being shopped. Harang as well, dependent upon the return.

[SMcGavin]

If they wanted to go with youth they would have gone with Dickerson instead of Tavaras. Hanigan would get the majority of ABs. Perhaps you challange someone like Frazier and put him in LF or 3rd. They aren't going to compete anyway so if they fail, what's the difference in finishing 6th or 4th? And it's possible they could succeed. If the Reds had the kind of talent in the mid 80s now and the current regime was in there, guys like O'Neill and Davis and Larkin and Sabo may have never seen the light of day in favor of some crappy veterans.

Yeah. If they were actually going young and rebuilding, that'd be OK. They could have gone:

Dorn/Gomes in LF
Dickerson/ $1M on a RH platoon bat in CF
Bruce in RF
EE at 3B
Trade Harang or Arroyo for a young SS
Phillips at 2B
Votto at 1B
Hernandez/Hanigan at C

Volquez
Harang or Arroyo
Cueto
Owings
Maloney

Cordero
Burton
Bray
Roenicke
Herrera
Lincoln
Ramirez

There's an actual young team. It would cost about $55M in payroll (counting Gonzo who isn't listed). Would that team be very good? Probably not, though I bet it'd be similar to the current roster. But you'd be really young, with tons of payflex, with even more coming after 09 when $13M tied up in Hernandez and Gonzo expire. And you'd find the answer to important questions for the 2010-2012 window you're setting up, like can Dickerson hit at the ML level? Can Maloney, Herrera, and Roenicke transfer their minor league success? Etc. Instead we sit here and tread water.

[RFS62]

No, it's Plan 9 from outer space.

http://i256.photobucket.com/albums/hh171/noneabve1/TorJohnson.jpg



That one had a much better director than we do.

[missionhockey21]

This is a very good post...and I would only add that, if this is the case, then (at a minimum) Arroyo should be being shopped. Harang as well, dependent upon the return.
Why Harang? Is it bad enough that the market drops and we drop out that we also have to shop what should be a big commodity under normal circumstances at a discounted rate due to a scary old W-L record and misleading ERA due to a dusty night against San Diego? Shop him if necessary, but after his value has returned and as it likely will when you consider his last eight starts last season.

[M2]

The youth is a places like Louisville, Carolina, Sarasota, Dayton, Billings, and various Latin American venues.

The guys the Reds signed were short-term stop gaps until the youth is ready.

Pretty much everything they've got in full season ball that's got any chance of ever helping a major league club is players they acquired via the draft (with a very few international signings mixed in). Where exactly are the young players acquired from other organizations that are part of this "plan"? The Reds haven't acquired so much as one such player this entire offseason. Call me crazy, but when I have a "plan" I don't ignore it for months on end.

If this were a plan, then the Reds would be, at best, complacent, though inept would be a better description.

IMO, it would be more reasonable to assert that it should become the plan and that the franchise needs to get aggressive about enacting it.

Plus, we've been hearing this same sorry rationalization this entire decade every time it becomes clear that the club won't be winning anything in the most immediate season. We're about eight years in. How's it working so far?


The Reds have done far more than "attending the draft." For a small market team, they have been extremely aggressive in international signings. They signed some of the most coveted Latin American players last year.

That started last year and may bear some fruit in 2014 or so. Also, I've got a funny feeling the Reds won't be spending so much in Latin America in the coming years (unless they dramatically reduce payroll).


If the Reds traded off their veterans right now for kids, everyone would be disappointed with the return. Teams will not trade top level youth for Harang (who lost 17 games last year and had injuries) and Arroyo (who like Harang had a 4.75 plus ERA). These guys are not CC Sabathia.

Listen, this either is or isn't the plan. If it is the plan, then Aaron Harang needs to be on the market and the Reds will need to be smart shoppers (e.g. picking out some sleepers from other organizations). You can't say a youth program is the "plan" and then not do the things you need to do to enact that plan.

If you haven't noticed, people are already complaining and not renewing their ticket packages. The Reds might make a lot more people happy by committing to a youth plan than by paying it lip service.


Last year the Reds promoted Votto, Cueto, and Bruce and acquired Volquez. I'm quite confident they will aggressively promote guys like Alonso, Valaika, Frazier, Roenicke when ready and there will be more youth soon.

Yeah, it's like they hold a draft year or something. Every team does it. Oddly many prospects wash out and almost no team manages to rebuild successfully without importing a healthy amount of young talent from outside the organization.

I'm quite confident the Reds don't have enough talent on the farm to escape from the loser treadmill any time soon.

[TRF]

The youth is a places like Louisville, Carolina, Sarasota, Dayton, Billings, and various Latin American venues.

The guys the Reds signed were short-term stop gaps until the youth is ready.

The Reds have done far more than "attending the draft." For a small market team, they have been extremely aggressive in international signings. They signed some of the most coveted Latin American players last year.

If the Reds traded off their veterans right now for kids, everyone would be disappointed with the return. Teams will not trade top level youth for Harang (who lost 17 games last year and had injuries) and Arroyo (who like Harang had a 4.75 plus ERA). These guys are not CC Sabathia.

Last year the Reds promoted Votto, Cueto, and Bruce and acquired Volquez. I'm quite confident they will aggressively promote guys like Alonso, Valaika, Frazier, Roenicke when ready and there will be more youth soon.

Well, youth better be in the minor leagues. Beats the days when we saw 30 year olds at AA/AAA. Strangely enough, every other team has youth in the minors too.

How exactly do they determine when the 'youths" are ready? MORE time in AAA? How much MORE do they have to prove? Why does Dickerson after advancing a level a year, and getting better at every level, then having a very successful major league debut still have to prove he is "ready"?

Roenicke has been good enough and has enough of a track record now to at least fill the role Burton had when he first ame over. Treat him like a Rule V pickup. ease him in and let him earn his place.

AAA saw a breakout season from Ramon Ramirez. Maloney was solid in his first full season at that level despite an injury early in the year. Add Thompson, Bailey and Owings, and that's youth.

The point is the Reds never needed to spend a dime on Taveras, Nix or Gomes. Of the three, Gomes is the best bet to actually hit.

If the reds are going with a youth movement as they claim, it might behoove them to actually play the youths. Yes, Votto, Bruce, EE and Phillips are all young. The rest is older and in some cases just bad.

[Chip R]

The Reds obviously don't view Dickerson, Roenicke, and Hanigan as ready to be full time starting players. They are entitled to these views, not every young player is an every day guy.

If they are of that opinion, that's fine. Then they should say that instead of burying these guys.


When the Red believe a young player is a major league regular, they use him that way. They did for Volquez, Cueto, Votto, and Bruce last year.

They were forced to use Volquez and Cueto because they had no alternatives. As for Votto, he was platooned with Hatteberg for a month or so because he had a poor spring. Bruce should have been in CF on Opening Day instead of Patterson. So they really don't go with youth unless their hand is forced.


Dickerson and Hanigan will be on the roster this year and will have opportunities. Taveras is still a young player, he will get a chance to show he can get on base. Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Bray, Burton, maybe Janish or Rosales, will be there. Maybe Massett or Ramirez, also young players, or Owings, still pretty young.

The direction is clear. It just takes time.

Hanigan should make the roster and get a decent amount of playing time. I wouldn't bet the farm on Dickerson even making the team if he still has options. I know what the direction is and I don't think it's what you believe it is.

[princeton]

Why Harang? Is it bad enough that the market drops and we drop out that we also have to shop what should be a big commodity under normal circumstances at a discounted rate due to a scary old W-L record and misleading ERA due to a dusty night against San Diego? Shop him if necessary, but after his value has returned and as it likely will when you consider his last eight starts last season.

why Harang is because our timeline just changed.

I agree with your other points, but if the budget continues to drop, someone expensive is going to have to go.

[medford]

You know if I was Bob C, Walt J & co, and wanted to look good, I might slip a story to the press that we've pretty much reached our buget, knowing full well I've got another 8 million or so to drop once Bobby A or some other remaining FA realizes hes not going to get that big money contract. Then I can come out and say how the market fell to us, and we reached into the coach cushions and came up w/ a few more dollars b/c we really thought so and so could make us a contenda...

just sayin'

[jojo]

Jocketty is probably just trying to squeeze a couple mill from Manny before signing him.

[flyer85]

why Harang is because our timeline just changed.

I agree with your other points, but if the budget continues to drop, someone expensive is going to have to go.Harang has pitched a ton of innings in the last 4 years, he is a good candidate to start to slide or get injured.

Now is the time to cash in, better a year early than a year late(nod to Rickey).

[M2]

why Harang is because our timeline just changed.

I agree with your other points, but if the budget continues to drop, someone expensive is going to have to go.

Yep, that's the realpolitik of it. Harang's expensive and marketable.

[Matt700wlw]

Looks like the payroll is going to stay around $74 million like last year.

I remember the $80 million range being thrown around earlier in the offseason.



I guess the economy is a good "out" if the offseason is in fact over.

[jojo]

Start cutting off the toes before hacking at the ankles..... Cordero should be shopped ASAP.

[princeton]

You know if I was Bob C, Walt J & co, and wanted to look good, I might slip a story to the press that we've pretty much reached our buget, knowing full well I've got another 8 million or so to drop once Bobby A or some other remaining FA realizes hes not going to get that big money contract. Then I can come out and say how the market fell to us, and we reached into the coach cushions and came up w/ a few more dollars b/c we really thought so and so could make us a contenda...

just sayin'

except that agents just deleted Walt's phone number. on caller ID they changed him from "Walt" to "Waste of Time"

[Blitz Dorsey]

No way you trade Harang now... not when his value is down. If he comes back with a good year I'd certainly consider it. But the one thing we finally have going for us is a decent starting rotation and I would just prefer to keep it in tact (at least guys like Harang, Volquez and Cueto... I think Arroyo could/should be dealt now while his value is as high as it's going to get).

[M2]

Start cutting off the toes before hacking at the ankles..... Cordero should be shopped ASAP.

To whom?

Teams are staying away from Hall of Fame hitters, lefty starters with good K rates, top drawer setup men, OB machines, 40 HR hitters, three-time All-Star RHPs, Glove Glove 2Bs, consistently productive shortstops with good gloves and consistent 200 IP innings eaters.

The club might be able to move Harang because a few big market teams might, correctly, perceive it as a golden opportunity to add a frontline starter for a diminished return.

Yet I doubt there will be much of a market for Cordero until a preponderance of teams decides to get back in the business of helping themselves.

[Kc61]

If they are of that opinion, that's fine. Then they should say that instead of burying these guys.



They were forced to use Volquez and Cueto because they had no alternatives. As for Votto, he was platooned with Hatteberg for a month or so because he had a poor spring. Bruce should have been in CF on Opening Day instead of Patterson. So they really don't go with youth unless their hand is forced.



Hanigan should make the roster and get a decent amount of playing time. I wouldn't bet the farm on Dickerson even making the team if he still has options. I know what the direction is and I don't think it's what you believe it is.

What is the direction, then. Planned mediocrity through bad older players? I doubt it.

The direction is clearly to emphasize internal drafting and development of players. And to spend when ready to field a truly competitive team.

But every kid doesn't have equal ability. A team -- even if rebuilding with youth -- doesn't have to give every youngster a full time major league position as a tryout.

Two years ago many on this site wouldn't have believed that Dickerson or Hanigan would ever be major league players, beyond maybe an occasional injury fill-in role. They weren't highly touted. They didn't make many top prospects lists.

Now, deservedly, they will get playing time on the major league roster. They aren't being "buried." Because the Reds aren't handing them positions isn't terrible. It just shows that the team believes they aren't ready to hold down a full time position.

Looking at this guy or that guy isn't the way to view this. What is the direction? Are there more young players, starting and on the bench, on the Reds? Are there others in the high minors likely to be major league contributors soon?

When O'Brien took over this team had little on the farm and a losing major league team, not a particularly young one. Through three GMs the team now has promising kids at the major league level and in the high minors. There is a direction, but the Reds must aggressively build on it by drafting wisely, signing internationally, and an occasional trade for youth when possible.

[Falls City Beer]

Other teams will figure out that this "economy" excuse is garbage, and start plucking off moderate-expense talent from poormouth teams like the Reds who are looking to dump talent for minimal return in trade.

[jojo]

To whom?

Teams are staying away from Hall of Fame hitters, lefty starters with good K rates, top drawer setup men, OB machines, 40 HR hitters, three-time All-Star RHPs, Glove Glove 2Bs, consistently productive shortstops with good gloves and consistent 200 IP innings eaters.

The club might be able to move Harang because a few big market teams might, correctly, perceive it as a golden opportunity to add a frontline starter for a diminished return.

Yet I doubt there will be much of a market for Cordero until a preponderance of teams decides to get back in the business of helping themselves.

If teams are staying away from all of those prized possessions (Hall of Fame hitters, lefty starters with good K rates, top drawer setup men, OB machines, 40 HR hitters, three-time All-Star RHPs, Glove Glove 2Bs, consistently productive shortstops with good gloves and consistent 200 IP innings eaters), Harang isn't going to turn heads either. Jake Peavy hasn't bought a new house.

Really if Harang's contract is even remotely an issue now, hindsight makes the Cordero signing look like an albatross painted on the worlds heaviest anchor that is attached to a ship moored in front of an oncoming iceberg that would make the one that hit the titanic an after thought.

[Always Red]

I'll give this much to Cast- he really is a PR machine.

He dropped this little bomb on everyone just as the Reds Winter Caravan begins it's 5 state swing. That'll get everyone excited!

[M2]

The direction is clearly to emphasize internal drafting and development of players.

29 other teams do the exact same thing. You act like there's something unique about it when it's just part of the function of running a major league baseball organization.

A franchise has to do it exceedingly well in order to gain a significant competitive advantage with it and the Reds do not do it exceedingly well.

The Reds organizational cupboard is just about bare at SS and C. Starting pitching is extremely thin. Big OF bats following in the wake of Mr. Bruce? 2B beyond Valaika? CF if Dickerson and/or Stubbs don't pan out long-term?

It's hard enough just to graduate talent as quickly as you lose it, let alone plug specific holes on demand. Beyond that you've got to graduate a pile of talent in an extremely compressed window in order to have that team mature and win before it begins to unravel, which is why rebuilding clubs make trades for prospects in order to produce enough young talent inside that compressed window.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Castellini has the spirit of a hustler and the swagger of a college kid. He's a paper chaser!

[WebScorpion]

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-fc/throw.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-fc/tantrum.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-fc/thatsit.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

[Falls City Beer]

Castellini has the spirit of a hustler and the swagger of a college kid. He's a paper chaser!

It was the one thing I really disliked about him when he come on board; he struck me as a huckster, not an organizational backbone.

[I(heart)Freel]

Looks like the payroll is going to stay around $74 million like last year.

I remember the $80 million range being thrown around earlier in the offseason.



I guess the economy is a good "out" if the offseason is in fact over.


Something I find interesting is the rationale behind the payroll bump (when the $80 mill figure first saw light). It was because the Reds were bringing the broadcast advertising business in house. It was reasoned at the time that just doing that... not increasing the profits or expecting a tidal wave of new ad money... but just bringing it in house would add $6 mill or so in payroll.

The only thing I can think is that while they're still about to see that new money, they are expecting that much of a hit at the gate.

Will attendance be that far down? Frankly... whatever attendance has been these past few losing years... I would think that's pretty much the base. That's the number of people to expect who just like to come to the ballpark, regardless of on-field product. But maybe they think the casual 3-5 game family will quickly become 1-3 game families this year? Or that the number of people who'll drive from outer markets will be cut that much by the downed economy.

I guess all we know is... the Reds are proceeding extremely cautiously. Fiscal responsibility always seemed one of BCast's assets. So maybe the Reds will get through this recession in solid shape, so when the winning window *does* arrive, they're ready to pounce?

Ah, foolish optimism. I hardly knew ye.

[Falls City Beer]

Something I find interesting is the rationale behind the payroll bump (when the $80 mill figure first saw light). It was because the Reds were bringing the broadcast advertising business in house. It was reasoned at the time that just doing that... not increasing the profits or expecting a tidal wave of new ad money... but just bringing it in house would add $6 mill or so in payroll.

The only thing I can think is that while they're still about to see that new money, they are expecting that much of a hit at the gate.

Will attendance be that far down? Frankly... whatever attendance has been these past few losing years... I would think that's pretty much the base. That's the number of people to expect who just like to come to the ballpark, regardless of on-field product. But maybe they think the casual 3-5 game family will quickly become 1-3 game families this year? Or that the number of people who'll drive from outer markets will be cut that much by the downed economy.

I guess all we know is... the Reds are proceeding extremely cautiously. Fiscal responsibility always seemed one of BCast's assets. So maybe the Reds will get through this recession in solid shape, so when the winning window *does* arrive, they're ready to pounce?

Ah, foolish optimism. I hardly knew ye.

I guarantee that attendance will look just like last year's. In fact, if the team surprises a little bit, I expect it to go up some.

There may be other reasons that money does come in this season, but attendance won't be it. I promise you that.

[princeton]

What is the direction, then. Planned mediocrity through bad older players? I doubt it.

the Reds might not have had that plan, but that plan now has the Reds.

budget changes'll do that to you.

[RedEye]

I love some of the purple prose in this article.


Castellini has been focused on a quick turnaround since he took over the team, although he says that was somewhat overplayed by the media.

"We want to win," Castellini said. "That's our message. I knew we couldn't win right away. You want to, but it takes time. I said we want to win -- not overnight. You guys took that out of context."

I'm confused by Castellini's claim that his goal to "win now" was taken out of context. "Win now"--put together, these two are pretty unambiguous and hard to take out of context, really.

What, exactly, does he expect us to think he really meant?

Perhaps Castellini is operating with an extremely slippery version of what it means to "win"--something more like a moral victory or a victory "by comparison with what came before."

Or maybe he has an existential definition of the word "now"--one that should really go in quotes, and really means "sort of now, but really sometime in the general future."

Oh wait. Maybe he was just fooling himself, and fooling us, about his commitment to really putting a good team on the field.


The Reds aren't saying they're writing off the 2009 season, but the focus is on the future.

Where do I begin with this? Seriously.

[Chip R]

What is the direction, then. Planned mediocrity through bad older players? I doubt it.

The direction is clearly to emphasize internal drafting and development of players. And to spend when ready to field a truly competitive team.

But every kid doesn't have equal ability. A team -- even if rebuilding with youth -- doesn't have to give every youngster a full time major league position as a tryout.

Two years ago many on this site wouldn't have believed that Dickerson or Hanigan would ever be major league players, beyond maybe an occasional injury fill-in role. They weren't highly touted. They didn't make many top prospects lists.

Now, deservedly, they will get playing time on the major league roster. They aren't being "buried." Because the Reds aren't handing them positions isn't terrible. It just shows that the team believes they aren't ready to hold down a full time position.

Looking at this guy or that guy isn't the way to view this. What is the direction? Are there more young players, starting and on the bench, on the Reds? Are there others in the high minors likely to be major league contributors soon?

When O'Brien took over this team had little on the farm and a losing major league team, not a particularly young one. Through three GMs the team now has promising kids at the major league level and in the high minors. There is a direction, but the Reds must aggressively build on it by drafting wisely, signing internationally, and an occasional trade for youth when possible.


They don't think they will be ready because they have a prediliction toward veteran players. Dusty loves him some speed at the top of the lineup. So the GM goes out and gets Willie Patterson and Corey Tavaras. Dusty also loves him some veteran presence. So they go out and bring back Weathers, sign Josh Fogg and Hariston and Patterson and Tavaras et. al. If Walt is trying to teach the Dusty a lesson that it's mighty difficult to win the Dusty way then he's doing a bang up job. My fear is that he actually thinks this is a way to go about building a ball club when you don't draw 3M a year.

If they don't think those kids are ready, that's fine. But we'll never know if they are because they won't play them. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Then when they release them or trade them a couple of years from now they can say, "See, we told you they weren't ready." Why not find out if they are ready by giving them a starting job? What is it going to hurt? That way they can really find out if they are ready. If they stink then they can say they told us so. If they play well then we will know that going in to the next season and they won't have to diddle around all off season looking for the next Hariston.

[M2]

If teams are staying away from all of those prized possessions (Hall of Fame hitters, lefty starters with good K rates, top drawer setup men, OB machines, 40 HR hitters, three-time All-Star RHPs, Glove Glove 2Bs, consistently productive shortstops with good gloves and consistent 200 IP innings eaters), Harang isn't going to turn heads either. Jake Peavy hasn't bought a new house.

Really if Harang's contract is even remotely an issue now, hindsight makes the Cordero signing look like an albatross painted on the worlds heaviest anchor that is attached to a ship moored in front of an oncoming iceberg that would make the one that hit the titanic an after thought.

Peavy didn't move because he limited his market to one team and the Padres didn't like what that team was offering.

With the caveat that maybe there's no market for anything right now, in which case the sport is effectively comatose, I'm thinking along the same lines as FCB when it comes to Harang.


Other teams will figure out that this "economy" excuse is garbage, and start plucking off moderate-expense talent from poormouth teams like the Reds who are looking to dump talent for minimal return in trade.

The, hopefully, temporary insanity in the marketplace will do the Reds a favor when it comes to Cordero, as it will probably force the club to keep a competent closer on hand until at least midseason. Like Arroyo, he stands to punch his ticket out of town by pitching well in the first half of the season (though it might take a little while longer for the closer market to open up).

[Matt700wlw]

Win now when it happens.

[flyer85]

The, hopefully, temporary insanity in the marketplace will do the Reds a favor when it comes to Cordero, as it will probably force the club to keep a competent closer on hand until at least midseason.Cordero's no-trade and his overpriced contract(by at least 50%) will make it very hard to trade him without sending a long a significant amount of money ... which to me translates to "he isn't going anywhere".

[flyer85]

Win now when it happens.the emporer has no clothes.

[edabbs44]

Cordero's no-trade and his overpriced contract(by at least 50%) will make it very hard to trade him without sending a long a significant amount of money ... which to me translates to "he isn't going anywhere".

Phenomenal signing.

[fearofpopvol1]

let me jump again out of context:

"We've just come to a point where we're not going to lose anymore," Reds owner Bob Castellini said emphatically after firing the GM of the 9-12 Reds.

My thoughts exactly.

[Cyclone792]

Other teams will figure out that this "economy" excuse is garbage, and start plucking off moderate-expense talent from poormouth teams like the Reds who are looking to dump talent for minimal return in trade.

I think you're right, and it'll happen very soon. The unfortunate key there is "other teams" will figure out that the excuse is garbage while the Reds languish in self-made misery.

[Caveat Emperor]

Start cutting off the toes before hacking at the ankles..... Cordero should be shopped ASAP.

At this point, the team has basically committed to a full teardown. They might never realize that, and continue to do things half-reared with middling results, but today the Reds announced their only future is a full out rebuild of everyone making more than arbitration-level salary.

Bye Harang.
Bye Arroyo.
Bye Phillips.
Bye Cordero.

[Chip R]

I hope they have some WD-40 for Cordero's arm. He's going to be lucky if he gets 30 save chances.

I'm not too worried about his deal. There's always a market for closers at the deadline. Walt offers to pay half his salary and asks for a kid... I mean veteran utility player, and he might be able to unload him. Not very many people thought Freel could be unloaded but he was and the Reds got a starting catcher for him.

[reds44]

castellini has the spirit of a hustler and the swagger of a college kid. He's a paper chaser!
So LIVE YOUR LIFE!!!

[reds44]

Win now when it happens.
Win now (in AAA)

[flyer85]

There's always a market for closers at the deadline. and usually a number of them available ... Cordero's contract will make him last on any list. Far superior pitchers got a lot less money than Cordero this time around.

[LoganBuck]

I have been saying this to my friends who are Reds fans for about two weeks. I knew this day was coming when I saw the arbitration numbers for Weathers and EE, just not before the Caravan. The Reds went to the prime rib buffet and got a plate of instant mashed potatoes.

To those that said that Walt knows what he is doing, and that he has something up his sleeve, what is your response now?

The NFL draft is April 25-26. Who wants to start the mock drafts?

[Unassisted]

To those that said that Walt knows what he is doing, and that he has something up his sleeve, what is your response now?
I don't recall if I said that about him, but I do believe this is the circumstance that will cause Walt to retire in 2009.

[RedsManRick]

When the market adjusts and the Reds are poised to take advantage, they instead do their best to stay under the bar of respectability. Yawn.

I prefer this to stupid decisions which hamper us in the future, but what a wasted opportunity.

[membengal]

If Walt were not a professional corpse at this point, something that would have been really proactive given this market? Flip Arroyo and Harang for what you can get from teams that wouldn't blink at their salary. Rely on your scouting department to have identified jewels deep in systems to make it work. That frees up $20 million or so in payroll. Then, turn around and buy into the depressed market, getting, say, a Sheets and Perez, for maybe around $15 million or so. That way you have freed up an additional $5 million, perhaps, and picked up prospects to continue a youth movement in the meantime. And would be able to tell your fanbase you are not punting 2009...

[Falls City Beer]

I think a lot of the teeth-gnashing going on stems from the fallacious belief that this pitching staff is good. The argument is, "Hey we got ourselves a pitching staff that could win the Central, if only we had an offense/defense." I would understand the rage a bit more if I agreed that this pitching staff was all that good. But as it is, I can't get all that worked up.

[I(heart)Freel]

At the risk of being all Pollyanna... the Reds *could* be waiting to see if Homer or someone else steps up in the spring to show they're MLB-ready before moving Arroyo for the young, slick shortstop everyone wants? Or the power bat left fielder? As soon as one big market team loses a starter to injury (which always happens in early March) there could be high demand for a JTM spokesman.

Just because the Reds say this is the payroll doesn't mean this is the team on April 6.

Looking at the team roster and who is signed for how long etc., I still think the Reds are "in the window." The expected roster from 2009-2011 is the right mix of up and coming youth (Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Edwin, Volquez, Bray, Burton), capable albeit expensive vets (Harang, Cordero) and placeholder vets keeping the seat warm til the next generation is ready (most of bullpen).

Give me 1-2 minor league deals for reclamation projects who *could* serve a decent platoon in left and I don't think this club is that far off. At least not as much as the tone on this board suggests.

[Falls City Beer]

At the risk of being all Pollyanna... the Reds *could* be waiting to see if Homer or someone else steps up in the spring to show they're MLB-ready before moving Arroyo for the young, slick shortstop everyone wants? Or the power bat left fielder? As soon as one big market team loses a starter to injury (which always happens in early March) there could be high demand for a JTM spokesman.

Just because the Reds say this is the payroll doesn't mean this is the team on April 6.

Looking at the team roster and who is signed for how long etc., I still think the Reds are "in the window." The expected roster from 2009-2011 is the right mix of up and coming youth (Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Edwin, Volquez, Bray, Burton), capable albeit expensive vets (Harang, Cordero) and placeholder vets keeping the seat warm til the next generation is ready (most of bullpen).

Give me 1-2 minor league deals for reclamation projects who *could* serve a decent platoon in left and I don't think this club is that far off. At least not as much as the tone on this board suggests.


I don't think that's Pollyannaish.

I don't like the payroll cut stuff because it's bullcrap, not because I think the Reds can't be otherwise good.

[Highlifeman21]

The Cincinnati Reds: Poised to be one of the worst offenses in the National League.

Come join the excitement!

Season ticket packages still available....

[membengal]

I think a lot of the teeth-gnashing going on stems from the fallacious belief that this pitching staff is good. The argument is, "Hey we got ourselves a pitching staff that could win the Central, if only we had an offense/defense." I would understand the rage a bit more if I agreed that this pitching staff was all that good. But as it is, I can't get all that worked up.

I sure don't think it's good. Not good enough to get them to even .500 at this point. Now, IF they had added another arm to it, with a few other moves? That might have been the basis of some genuine excitement. They chose another path.

[Cyclone792]

I don't recall if I said that about him, but I do believe this is the circumstance that will cause Walt to retire in 2009.

Bill Bavasi and Cam Bonifay may be co-GMs by the end of the year!

[Caveat Emperor]

Give me 1-2 minor league deals for reclamation projects who *could* serve a decent platoon in left and I don't think this club is that far off. At least not as much as the tone on this board suggests.

Here's why this team will continue to remain futile for the forseeable future:

They claim the economy is holding them back, but they spent millions of dollars a player (Taveras) that is actually worse than at least 2 (possibly three) in-house options that are making close to league-minimum.

They don't continue to fail because they're broke, they continue to fail because they don't understand what it takes to succeed.

[Falls City Beer]

I agree with Unassisted that this will likely be Jocketty's last year GM-ing. I can't imagine he'll stick around for an owner who's shrinking the budget.

[Mario-Rijo]

How about the 2009 team?

Mario-rijo had a really good post guessing at the payroll for 2009 on the EE/Weathers thread. I am going to paste it here, as it seems absolutely perfect for this thread. Hope that is okay.

Mario-rijo wrote:

Thanks for posting membengal I was wondering if anyone had when I started reading this news. I wanna add that they may be right about payroll matching last years already as my 71 million dollar guesstimate doesn't include what the players who come up from AAA throughout the season will make when they are up. I assume they have some annual figures that gives them a crude estimate in advance. Also wasn't real sure how much Norris Hopper would be making regardless of where he plays. But it was apparently close enough as I did come to the same ultimate conclusion as them. Also as I noted Gonzo's money is counted in that figure already but could be deducted from it assuming it's insured and he can't go. Sure would like to know how that turns out. It could determine whether or not we have any chance of adding a player at midseason, which as of now I also very much doubt.

Fortunately my earlier pessimism has allowed me to have already moved on from this feeling of frustration that a lot have to now deal with. But it moved me on to a whole new level of frustration. If the economic issue really did thwart Bobs attempt to make this club competitive this coming season then it's safe to say he probably already has lowered expectations. That may very well mean a 3rd year of Dusty Baker as well. Especially considering now is not the time to be tossing Dusty's 3.5 Million for next season down the crapper and paying a new guy to come in also.

But right now I am just hoping the economy bounces back and that has less to do with the Reds than ever before. I'm just glad as of now that there will be a season of baseball at all.

[M2]

I agree with Unassisted that this will likely be Jocketty's last year GM-ing. I can't imagine he'll stick around for an owner who's shrinking the budget.

I was e-mailing with a Cardinals fan recently and he said he thought Jocketty would turn around the Reds in five years time. My response was "Jocketty may find that two years with the Reds is a lifetime."

[Kc61]

If Walt were not a professional corpse at this point, something that would have been really proactive given this market? Flip Arroyo and Harang for what you can get from teams that wouldn't blink at their salary. Rely on your scouting department to have identified jewels deep in systems to make it work. That frees up $20 million or so in payroll. Then, turn around and buy into the depressed market, getting, say, a Sheets and Perez, for maybe around $15 million or so. That way you have freed up an additional $5 million, perhaps, and picked up prospects to continue a youth movement in the meantime. And would be able to tell your fanbase you are not punting 2009...


Why would teams give up good young talent for Arroyo and Harang -- to enable the Reds to get Sheets and Perez more cheaply?

Instead, those other teams could just go into the market and sign Sheets and Perez themselves. Give up no players. Pay the pitchers less than Arroyo/Harang.

The timing for trading Arroyo and Harang is poor. Their contracts are too big. Their recent performances don't warrant those contracts in today's economic environment.

The better course, IMO, is to trade one of them at the deadline. Some team will need a starter and will give up something to get whichever of Harang/Arroyo is doing well. Possibly Reds could trade both during the season if they have good years.

I say there's a good chance at least one is traded this season if the Reds aren't in it, which is the likely scenario.

[M2]

The direction is clearly to emphasize internal drafting and development of players.

Quick addendum to what I said above.

In his latest column, BA's Jim Callis notes that "The top [five] organizations averaged five trade acquisitions [in their top 30 prospects lists], while the thinnest [five organizations] had just six between them."

That includes at least 11 trade acquisitions in the top 10s of those top five organizations (with possibly more dependent on who makes the Giants top 10). In addition, the top prospect for three of those teams (Rangers, A's and Marlins) was acquired via trade.

It's pretty clear the best regarded systems have been aggressive in acquiring prospects while the worst regarded systems have not.

[M2]

Why would teams give up good young talent for Arroyo and Harang -- to enable the Reds to get Sheets and Perez more cheaply?

Instead, those other teams could just go into the market and sign Sheets and Perez themselves. Give up no players. Pay the pitchers less than Arroyo/Harang.

Agreed on Arroyo. The Reds won't be able to move him until Perez, Sheets, Wolf and Garland are off the market.

Yet Harang's a decided cut above that list, maybe not Sheets when he's healthy, but Sheets tends not be all that healthy. If you're the GM of the Mets or Dodgers and you think you need a 200 IP stud, trading for Harang is probably a much smarter move than signing one of the remaining free agents and crossing your fingers.

[IslandRed]

I agree with Unassisted that this will likely be Jocketty's last year GM-ing. I can't imagine he'll stick around for an owner who's shrinking the budget.

If a couple of things are true -- that Walt's been working off the presumption his budget was the reported $80 million figure, and Mario-Rijo's post in the other thread about the Reds' current commitments being more in the $71-72 million range -- then it means Jocketty was keeping some powder dry, waiting for the market to come to him, and Castellini just chopped him off at the knees. If so, that can't sit well, no matter how economically rational it may be.

[KronoRed]

Win now was taken out of context huh?

This is hysterical stuff. Yahoo to the future friends.

[durl]

Krivsky gets fired because they were winning "now." Now Castellini gains some patience.

Castellini should apologize to Krivsky.

[edabbs44]

Here's the other big picture thing that is really bothering me. Again, asking the eternal question from edabbs...why not cash in your big dollar chips that have value, i.e., Harang and Arroyo, and go with a youth movement that really reduces payroll and gives them flex for the future?

Have a, um, "plan"?

As it stands, at $71 million, they are betwixt and between, eternally, running to catch their tails and hoping to get to .500.

I am really disappointed by the lack of direction, for the umpteenth year in a row.

If Cast wanted to "win now" and was willing to spend to try and do that, bully for him.

If Cast wants to pare it back and be fiscally sane while building for the future, do that, and bully for him.

But this middle course? Not acceptable. And not a plan. Really frustrating.

Once I am gone I'll be viewed as a visionary.

[KronoRed]

Bill Bavasi and Cam Bonifay may be co-GMs by the end of the year!

Sweet, they can run the repeat of the 2003 sale when everyone was avalible for our good friend pile o cash.

[Ltlabner]

He also said Willy Taveras is his centerfielder and leadoff batter.

I've been in meetings all day. Perhaps this has already been covered, but I'd like all the people who said, "nah, he's just for depth" and "I'm sure there will be competition in spring training" and "quit being negative it's not a given he'll be our leadoff guy" to please pay particular attention to this quote from the OP.

[Ltlabner]

The Great Punt of 2009.

[membengal]

Why would teams give up good young talent for Arroyo and Harang -- to enable the Reds to get Sheets and Perez more cheaply?

Instead, those other teams could just go into the market and sign Sheets and Perez themselves. Give up no players. Pay the pitchers less than Arroyo/Harang.

The timing for trading Arroyo and Harang is poor. Their contracts are too big. Their recent performances don't warrant those contracts in today's economic environment.

The better course, IMO, is to trade one of them at the deadline. Some team will need a starter and will give up something to get whichever of Harang/Arroyo is doing well. Possibly Reds could trade both during the season if they have good years.

I say there's a good chance at least one is traded this season if the Reds aren't in it, which is the likely scenario.

Re: timing of dealing Harang and Arroyo, NOW they wouldn't do that, but if Walt had been quick and had read this market right, those kinds of deals might have been made back at the owners meetings. I am just saying, when you are the Reds GM, you HAVE to be creative, think outside the box, and unearth value in unlikely ways. I am NOT seeing that with Walt. Not yet. All I have seen with Walt this off-season is him get overwhelmed and be only reactive (and badly reactive) to market forces.

I wish he had been out in front of this...

[I(heart)Freel]

I think a lot of the teeth-gnashing going on stems from the fallacious belief that this pitching staff is good. The argument is, "Hey we got ourselves a pitching staff that could win the Central, if only we had an offense/defense." I would understand the rage a bit more if I agreed that this pitching staff was all that good. But as it is, I can't get all that worked up.

I'd be curious to see your team by team assessment of the NL Central's pitching staffs.

Surely the Reds are #2, aren't they?

IMHO they are. And yea, that's reason to get worked up.

[Falls City Beer]

I'd be curious to see your team by team assessment of the NL Central's pitching staffs.

Surely the Reds are #2, aren't they?

IMHO they are. And yea, that's reason to get worked up.

Number #2 (and a WAAAAY distant #2) rotation in the worst division in baseball?

I'm not going to lose sleep.

[MrCinatit]

Hey, looking towards the future is not all that bad.

It takes the attention away from the really sucky present.

[Ltlabner]

Re: timing of dealing Harang and Arroyo, NOW they wouldn't do that, but if Walt had been quick and had read this market right, those kinds of deals might have been made back at the owners meetings. I am just saying, when you are the Reds GM, you HAVE to be creative, think outside the box, and unearth value in unlikely ways. I am NOT seeing that with Walt. Not yet. All I have seen with Walt this off-season is him get overwhelmed and be only reactive (and badly reactive) to market forces.

I wish he had been out in front of this...

I get the vibe that they started out this offseason with the express intent of patching together a team and not doing much of anything. Maybe it was under the guise of "we're waiting for a deal" but generally speaking I think they punted long ago and were going through the motions all along.

[jojo]

Krivsky gets fired because they were winning "now." Now Castellini gains some patience.

Castellini should apologize to Krivsky.

Was Krivsky really fired? Is it possible that was taken out of context too?

[membengal]

Was Krivsky really fired? Is it possible that was taken out of context too?

Heh.

[Matt700wlw]

Krivsky gets fired because they were winning "now." Now Castellini gains some patience.

Castellini should apologize to Krivsky.

I think Jocketty was the guy he wanted all along....but he wasn't available.

He became available, so Krivsky became expendable.

[Blitz Dorsey]

FYI: This is the topic on SportsTalk tonight on WLW. ("These are your 2009 Cincinnati Reds. No more notable moves expected. No big bat. What do you think?")

Should be good.

[Mario-Rijo]

Number #2 (and a WAAAAY distant #2) rotation in the worst division in baseball?

I'm not going to lose sleep.

I couldn't disagree with something more. I'd take this current rotation over a vast majority of NL rotations. But I can't say I'm surprised you feel that way, you are certainly consistent in your beliefs.

[Falls City Beer]

I couldn't disagree with something more. I'd take this current rotation over a vast majority of NL rotations. But I can't say I'm surprised you feel that way, you are certainly consistent in your beliefs.

There are only a few NL teams with rotations that are certainly worse than the Reds': Nats, Pirates, Brewers, Rockies. Everyone else is roughly in league with the Reds (Houston, Phillies, Cards) or considerably better (Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Arizona, Mets, Marlins, Atlanta).

[red-in-la]

Number #2 (and a WAAAAY distant #2) rotation in the worst division in baseball?

I'm not going to lose sleep.

Assuming the Cubs is your #1 rotation, can you guess at their actual starting 5 for me?

They have a ton of them listed as SP's.

I assume:

Zambrano
Harden
Dempster
Lilly

But I am not sure of these guys or even the #5 guy.

To me, Dempster is a regression waiting to happen....and Lilly is questionable. Zambrano has thrown a ton of innings in the last 5 years. I am not sure that the 4 listed above are THAT much better than the Reds top 4.

[Roy Tucker]

They're doing it just to keep expectations low and any success they might have a pleasant surprise.

[Mario-Rijo]

There are only a few NL teams with rotations that are certainly worse than the Reds': Nats, Pirates, Brewers, Rockies. Everyone else is roughly in league with the Reds (Houston, Phillies, Cards) or considerably better (Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Arizona, Mets, Marlins, Atlanta).

Let's see teams I would take over this staff at this moment for '09.

Cubs
And maybe the Giants, Braves & Phils (a sizable maybe)

After all the musical chairs in FA stops I might also add more teams to that list. Most of those teams you listed don't even have a full rotation yet. But from 1-5 only the Cubbies put out a rotation that is obviously better. But I think that's more about how we see this staff and not so much the others. I honestly feel that Harang hasn't slid like I am betting you do, you probably think Volquez will fall off quite bit and you probably don't expect much improvement from Cueto. If I felt that way too I'd probably agree with you. But just for comparison's sake I would line them up sans #'s to see how they all stack up.

Reds - Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Owings
Cubs - Zambrano, Harden, Dumpster, Lilly, Marshall (Possibly Peavy)
Cards - Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, ???, ??? (Carpenter & Looper?)
Astros - Oswalt, Rodriguez, Hampton, Moehler, ??? (Wolf or Pettite?)
Brewers - Suppan, Parra, Bush, Gallardo, ??? (Sheets?)
Pirates - Maholm, Duke, Snell, Gorzellany, Dumatrait

Giants - Lincecum, Cain, Big Unit, Zito, Sanchez
Dodgers - Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, ???, ???
Arizona - Webb, Haren, D. Davis, ???, ???
Pads - Peavy, Young, Baek, ???, ???
Col - Jimenez, Francis, Cook, Morales, De La Rosa

Phils - Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Kendrick
NYM - Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, ???, ??? (Perez, Sheets or Pedro?)
Atl - Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Hudson, Reyes (Glavine?)
Fla - Johnson, Nolasco, Miller, Volstad, Sanchez
Nats - Lannan, Olsen & who knows

IMO way too many question marks for everyone else.

[Reds4Life]

Been thinking about this today, owners and GM's might change, but it's the same old Reds. Lots of talk about winning, new directions, and what do we get at the end of the day? Nothing. Lots of pissing and moaning and crying poor mouth.

Some things never change, same old Reds. I am about ready to just give up on this franchise, we have been hearing he same crap for so many years I'm apathetic to anything they say anymore.

[Caveat Emperor]

There are only a few NL teams with rotations that are certainly worse than the Reds': Nats, Pirates, Brewers, Rockies. Everyone else is roughly in league with the Reds (Houston, Phillies, Cards) or considerably better (Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Arizona, Mets, Marlins, Atlanta).

NL teams with rotations I'd consider "worse" than Cincinnati:

Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Houston
Washington
Colorado
San Francisco
San Diego
Philladelphia
Florida

I might even ADD to this list if Owings bounces back to his rookie-season form.

[RFS62]

I think Jocketty was the guy he wanted all along....but he wasn't available.

He became available, so Krivsky became expendable.



Without question.

Krivsky was doomed the moment Jocketty left the Cardinals.

[Falls City Beer]

NL teams with rotations I'd consider "worse" than Cincinnati:

Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Houston
Washington
Colorado
San Francisco
San Diego
Philladelphia
Florida

I might even ADD to this list if Owings bounces back to his rookie-season form.

San Fran? Really?

And it appears Carpenter will return to St. Louis, so that would put St. Louis' rotation ahead of the Reds'. Florida's rotation doesn't have someone as good as Volquez, but their rotation is much steadier 1-5. Philly and Houston are arguable maybe. I think they're close.

[Caveat Emperor]

San Fran? Really?

And it appears Carpenter will return to St. Louis, so that would put St. Louis' rotation ahead of the Reds'. Florida's rotation doesn't have someone as good as Volquez, but their rotation is much steadier 1-5. Philly and Houston are arguable maybe. I think they're close.

Yeah, San Fran really -- Don't get me wrong, I really like Lincecum and Cain, but then you throw Randy Johnson (at age 45), Barry Zito (coming off 5+ ERA and his 3rd consecutive seasons of declining Ks), and Jonathan Sanchez (he also of the 5+ ERA).

I like the consistency of Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Owings here. Especially if you factor in Harang moving closer to his career norms and improvement by Cueto.

As for the Cardinals? Their rotation is awful. If Chris Carpenter (who has thrown 21 innings in the last 2 full seasons) comes back to anything close to his former self, it'll be a minor miracle. Even with that, I think Kyle Lohse repeating his 2008 is a bet I'd never want to make. I put them even with the Reds if Carpenter is around, healthy and effective. Without that? Nope, not giving it to them.

[Falls City Beer]

Yeah, San Fran really -- Don't get me wrong, I really like Lincecum and Cain, but then you throw Randy Johnson (at age 45), Barry Zito (coming off 5+ ERA and his 3rd consecutive seasons of declining Ks), and Jonathan Sanchez (he also of the 5+ ERA).

I like the consistency of Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Owings here. Especially if you factor in Harang moving closer to his career norms and improvement by Cueto.

As for the Cardinals? Their rotation is awful. If Chris Carpenter (who has thrown 21 innings in the last 2 full seasons) comes back to anything close to his former self, it'll be a minor miracle. Even with that, I think Kyle Lohse repeating his 2008 is a bet I'd never want to make. I put them even with the Reds if Carpenter is around, healthy and effective. Without that? Nope, not giving it to them.

A healthy Carpenter and Wainwright would vault the Cards above Reds regardless of who pitches in the Cards' 3-5.

[Caveat Emperor]

A healthy Carpenter and Wainwright would vault the Cards above Reds regardless of who pitches in the Cards' 3-5.

When I grade out a rotation as a group, there's only so much a great front end can do to mitigate the damages of a festering pile of crap at the back. No matter how well Adam Wainwright pitches on a Tuesday, it doesn't make Wednesday nights start by Kyle Lohse any easier to stomach when he gets chased after 4.

Carpenter (if healthy) / Wainright v. Volquez / Harang is a push at worst. At that point, I like my chances of taking a series with Arroyo, Cueto or Owings on the mound for game 3 vs. anyone the Cards are going to throw out there.

[redsmetz]

Yeah, San Fran really -- Don't get me wrong, I really like Lincecum and Cain, but then you throw Randy Johnson (at age 45), Barry Zito (coming off 5+ ERA and his 3rd consecutive seasons of declining Ks), and Jonathan Sanchez (he also of the 5+ ERA).

I like the consistency of Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Owings here. Especially if you factor in Harang moving closer to his career norms and improvement by Cueto.

As for the Cardinals? Their rotation is awful. If Chris Carpenter (who has thrown 21 innings in the last 2 full seasons) comes back to anything close to his former self, it'll be a minor miracle. Even with that, I think Kyle Lohse repeating his 2008 is a bet I'd never want to make. I put them even with the Reds if Carpenter is around, healthy and effective. Without that? Nope, not giving it to them.

The last I read in the St. Louis paper, the Cards are exploring whether to use Carpenter as a reliever. I'll have to look for the article. It's up in the air, but they've broached the idea.

[jojo]

Yeah, San Fran really -- Don't get me wrong, I really like Lincecum and Cain, but then you throw Randy Johnson (at age 45), Barry Zito (coming off 5+ ERA and his 3rd consecutive seasons of declining Ks), and Jonathan Sanchez (he also of the 5+ ERA).

I like the consistency of Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Owings here. Especially if you factor in Harang moving closer to his career norms and improvement by Cueto.

Randy Johnson at age 44 basically put up a season comparable to "good" Harang. He'll probably be at least an above average starter for them with the question about him centering on IP.

San Fran actually has a lot of talent. They're kind of a sleeper in their division IMHO-they probably don't have enough horses but it depends upon how long the lap is...

[Falls City Beer]

I think folks are absolutely deluded by what Cueto, Arroyo, and Owings are likely to do this season. They'll all likely avoid Fogg level performance, but they all have #5 level basements, with only Cueto representing anything like a ceiling.

[Caveat Emperor]

I think folks are absolutely deluded by what Cueto, Arroyo, and Owings are likely to do this season. They'll all likely avoid Fogg level performance, but they all have #5 level basements, with only Cueto representing anything like a ceiling.

I have Arroyo at 4.55, Cueto at 4.60, and Owings at 4.75.

I consider those estimates highly conservative -- I think each could do better than that, and I don't think any of them are likely to do much worse.

[Falls City Beer]

I have Arroyo at 4.55, Cueto at 4.60, and Owings at 4.75.

I consider those estimates highly conservative -- I think each could do better than that, and I don't think any of them are likely to do much worse.

Are you serious? You honestly can't see Cueto or Owings being worse--considering their injuries and lack of experience?

[Highlifeman21]

I think folks are absolutely deluded by what Cueto, Arroyo, and Owings are likely to do this season. They'll all likely avoid Fogg level performance, but they all have #5 level basements, with only Cueto representing anything like a ceiling.

The fact that Arroyo is still a Red given our current roster of suck is a very telling sign of the state of the Reds.

Arroyo is the latest David Weathers, aka a guy that we should have moved when his value was at its peak, rather than hang onto him for minimum 2 years too long.

Arroyo is an expensive league average pitcher, which is great if he's the difference maker in between a wild card team or a division winner, but the Reds are neither, therefore Arroyo needs to be traded yesterday for something that can help the Reds to address other pressing needs (C, SS, depth).

[Falls City Beer]

The fact that Arroyo is still a Red given our current roster of suck is a very telling sign of the state of the Reds.

Arroyo is the latest David Weathers, aka a guy that we should have moved when his value was at its peak, rather than hang onto him for minimum 2 years too long.

Arroyo is an expensive league average pitcher, which is great if he's the difference maker in between a wild card team or a division winner, but the Reds are neither, therefore Arroyo needs to be traded yesterday for something that can help the Reds to address other pressing needs (C, SS, depth).

At this stage Arroyo's a guy you get to keep your last rotation spot from totally cratering. Rick Reed redux.

[Caveat Emperor]

Are you serious? You honestly can't see Cueto or Owings being worse--considering their injuries and lack of experience?

Every pitcher is an injury away from being an ineffective mess -- that's just a given. I don't even put that into the calculation.

With Cueto, I don't see any reason to project anything other than improvement or maintenance. He was effective, healthy enough for 30+ starts, and showed good life on his pitches. He's nowhere near age prime, even for a pitcher with his stature. Could he fall off? Sure. But, I don't see any compelling reason to think that.

With Owings, he's apparently healthy now (from what I've read), and was a guy who posted quality numbers while healthy (I'm giving you Chris Carpenter healthy, the least you can do is give me Owings healthy for the purpose of this discussion). Given that, he's a replacement-level starter at around 4.75. Additionally, I think it's foolhardy to suggest he doesn't have a ceiling given his pedigree.

[_Sir_Charles_]

If Chris Carpenter (who has thrown 21 innings in the last 2 full seasons) comes back to anything close to his former self, it'll be a minor miracle. Even with that, I think Kyle Lohse repeating his 2008 is a bet I'd never want to make. I put them even with the Reds if Carpenter is around, healthy and effective. Without that? Nope, not giving it to them.

Wasn't it already stated that Carpenter was coming back for the closer competition? Or at least the bullpen? I haven't heard anything about him coming back as a starter.

And I agree with you about the Cards' staff...no way they come close to repeating 2008. They're nowhere close to that good.

[Falls City Beer]

And I agree with you about the Cards' staff...no way they come close to repeating 2008. They're nowhere close to that good.

Every year. Every. year. people say this. Then they end up being better than the Reds.

Every year.

[Caveat Emperor]

Every year. Every. year. people say this. Then they end up being better than the Reds.

Every year.

When you evaluate on paper it's usually the correct statement to make.

Then Dave Duncan gets involved...

One of these years I'll be right, and the state of things will be beyond even his abilities. Maybe this is the year.

[Caveat Emperor]

At this stage Arroyo's a guy you get to keep your last rotation spot from totally cratering. Rick Reed redux.

Did I miss the glut of 200IP 5th starters that entered baseball last year?

[Falls City Beer]

Did I miss the glut of 200IP 5th starters that entered baseball last year?

I think you could get better performance out of Arroyo if you only expected 175 innings out of him.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by princeton
let me jump again out of context:

"We've just come to a point where we're not going to lose anymore," Reds owner Bob Castellini said emphatically after firing the GM of the 9-12 Reds.

I just wanted to quote this 1 more time for relevance...

[I(heart)Freel]

Every year. Every. year. people say this. Then they end up being better than the Reds.

Every year.

Not that its the end-all, be-all stat... but the Reds and Cards had the exact same number of quality starts last year.

Just saying.

[REDREAD]

kc, re: the bolded part above...those are the two players who have readily acknowledged value who could bring a real return to this team, while freeing up payroll.


I don't think anyone on this board would complain if Harang and/or Arroyo were traded for excellent prospects.

I don't think the market is there though. Why trade excellent prospects for Arroyo when guys like Looper are available in FA for less?

Harang is coming off a disappointing year in which he had an injury. That's going to scare people off.

Basically, we are in a market now where only a few clubs (NY) want to spend money. We are going to get lowballed big time if we shop Harang and Arroyo.
Just like Walt tried to lowball for Dye (I am assuming he wanted the Sox to eat a lot of Dye's salary).

[Falls City Beer]

Not that its the end-all, be-all stat... but the Reds and Cards had the exact same number of quality starts last year.

Just saying.

In fact, it's almost a useless stat.

[REDREAD]

This offseason has brought in Ramon Hernandez, Arthur Lee Rhodes, Willy Taveras, Laynce Nix and Johnny Gomes. Where's the youth?

I.

Nix is 28. Taveras and Gomez are around the same age.

If Dickerson is young, those three guys are too. I see a lot of cries about how Dickerson is a good prospect, but in reality, isn't he about 27 (give or take a year?)

We can be disappointed in the upsides and have different projections for the 3 OF that Walt brought in, but in fairness, for FA they are young.

Rhodes was brought in to fill a bullpen hole that the farm had no chance to fill. Hernandez was probably the best move Walt made this offseason as it dumped Freel and finally gave us a legit catcher (even though he's not young).

Again, I am disappointed with this offseason if no more moves have been made, but Walt did bring in 3 young OF that cost us nothing in trade and all have pretty modest salaries. If one of those 3 OF is productive, he can be signed as part of the long term plan.

[REDREAD]

I
If they wanted to go with youth they would have gone with Dickerson instead of Tavaras. Hanigan would get the majority of ABs..

But Chip, let's assume that Walt's talent evaluation puts Dickerson and Hannigan as ML backukp players at best. If they are confident in that evaluation, why bother giving them a bunch of playing time on blind hope?

Brandon Larson is an excellent example. I saw the guy plenty in AAA. IMO, it was clear he was not a ML 3b. He could not field. In addition, it was pretty clear that he wasn't likely to hit well in the ML. Yet the Reds moved Aaron to 2b and wasted about 1/2 of season before admitting that Larson was a flop.

Part of being a GM is to plan for contingencies. Hannigan and Dickerson will get opportunities next year. If Hannigan plays well, he's probably the #1 catcher in 2010. Dickerson is going to get some time in LF to prove himself.
The nice thing is that the Reds aren't stuck with playing these guys if they do flop. Neither of these guys are exactly blue chip prospects.

It really doesn't matter if Dickerson plays LF or CF next year. As long as he gets some playing time, the Reds can figure out if he's in the long term plan or not.

[TRF]

Taveras and Nix are young. they kinda suck, but they are young. Not Bruce, Votto, EE young, or as talented, but young.

yay sucky youth!

[REDREAD]

If you haven't noticed, people are already complaining and not renewing their ticket packages. The Reds might make a lot more people happy by committing to a youth plan than by paying it lip service.
.

I disagree with this. They would lose a lot more season ticket packages if Arroyo and Harang were traded right now and Masset and Homer replaced them in the rotation. Teams aren't going to give us prospects that are ML ready for Arroyo/Harang.. it's going to be guys that are 1-2 years away.

Short term, a full fledged youth movement is going to kill ticket sales even more.

The average fan doesn't get all worked up about Tavares and Rhodes getting signed. The average fan probably doesn't even know about these guys until opening day. They will wonder why Harang was dumped though.

[REDREAD]

Cordero's no-trade and his overpriced contract(by at least 50%) will make it very hard to trade him without sending a long a significant amount of money ... which to me translates to "he isn't going anywhere".

Don't forget the full no trade contract for 2009. Cordero showed that he's the type of guy to chase the biggest $$ by signing with the Reds. Reportedly the Brewers were close in $$, but Cordero simply took the highest bidder.

Cordero is going to leverage that no trade clause into more cash, making it all the more difficult to trade him. I imagine he will do the same with the limited no trade clause he has in the final 2 years of his deal.

I see no point in trading Cordero if the Reds have to eat significant $$ to do it. Might as well keep him.

[REDREAD]

If Walt were not a professional corpse at this point, something that would have been really proactive given this market? Flip Arroyo and Harang for what you can get from teams that wouldn't blink at their salary. [cut]. Then, turn around and buy into the depressed market, getting, say, a Sheets and Perez, for maybe around $15 million or so. ...

The problem is that every other ML club is thinking the same thing.

Atlanta would rather sign Lowe than trade good prospects for Arroyo. Why not? Lowe only costs about 3 million/year more.

This is absolutely the worst offseason to try to trade a 10 million/year starting pitcher, unfortunately. Harang and Arroyo didn't really perform consistently last year either. Sure, we could give them away, but what's the point in that? I think I'd rather have Harang than Sheets at this point.
Arroyo vs Perez is tougher, but at least Arroyo only has 2 years left on his deal. Perez has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career. When he got a big contract from the Pirates, he tanked. I'm not sure I give a guy like Perez a 3-4 year deal.

[Jpup]

Those that said the Reds were not done, please feel free to recant. Those that said Walt was just playing the market, please feel free to recant. Those that said the Reds would be better without Dunn and Jr., please feel free to recant. Those contracts were hampering the Reds from spending on something better, yeah, those folks can recant too.

Real teams don't let their GMs go on a cruise the heat of winter when all the good teams are trying to improve.

[REDREAD]

Taveras and Nix are young. they kinda suck, but they are young. Not Bruce, Votto, EE young, or as talented, but young.

yay sucky youth!

Yes, they might end up sucking. I am just saying they are youth that the Reds didn't have to give up anything for.

If one of the three OF ends up being good, that's not a bad reclamation fishing project.

But I am disappointed with this offseason. I will say that. Just pointing out that if Dickerson is youth, the other three OF are too.

[nate]

Yes, they might end up sucking. I am just saying they are youth that the Reds didn't have to give up anything for.

If one of the three OF ends up being good, that's not a bad reclamation fishing project.

To me, this sums up why I don't like the deal. We didn't sign 3 potential Josh Hamiltons, we signed 3 guys who might, with remarkable luck, find the seedy underbelly of a 90 OPS+.

That's not a plan, that's just three more opportunities to roll loaded dice on a crooked table.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by princeton
let me jump again out of context:

"We've just come to a point where we're not going to lose anymore," Reds owner Bob Castellini said emphatically after firing the GM of the 9-12 Reds.

I just wanted to quote this 1 more time for relevance...

What if a FO just got a make over through the addition of a large group of talented individuals with proven expertise in both player development and stats then the GM looked the fan base in the eyes and said this:


The biggest key, we have to increase the talent level in this organization. I can't sit here today and look at this major-league ballclub and feel warm and fuzzy about it. I see potential, I see things I like about this club. But I also see things that need to be improved. From the ground level to the top, we need to improve the talent level.

The promise I'd make to fans is we're going to put a product on the field they're going to be proud of. Is it going to happen over night? It's going to take a little time. If we're lucky, and some things fall into place, and some people have exceptional years, then it could happen sooner rather than later. But I can't sit here and look people in the eye and say, 'Get ready because we're going to be playing in November, or October.' I hope that happens. I'd love to see that happen, but there has to be a certain amount of patience. There is a plan in place.''

Could fans extend patience and support (perhaps even optimism) in that scenario?

[MartyFan]

While I think the payroll may be set, I am not sold that the personnel will remain the same...I look for Arroyo and or Harang to be dealt in ST or by the trade deadline...these trades could bring a nice return if Harang proves he is healthy and Arroyo pitches the way he did at the end of last year.

[RedsManRick]

What if a FO just got a make over through the addition of a large group of talented individuals with proven expertise in both player development and stats then the GM looked the fan base in the eyes and said this:

Could fans extend patience and support (perhaps even optimism) in that scenario?

We'll find out, won't we... The AL West is going to be an interesting division to follow over the next few years. I remember similar things being said when the current management groups took over in Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. I don't remember fan revolts... Of course, similar things were also said in Kansas City. At the end of the day, the Fans don't care about what you say, they care about what quality of team you field.

GMs would be a lot better off simply focusing on fielding the best team possible for the longest period of time than trying to appease a fickle fan base in a given year.

What's funny to me is that people around here seem to think that the Reds organization has something to lose by admitting it stinks, has stunk, and committing to an open and honest plan that involves not necessarily being in the playoffs (insert year of quote here).

That's not to say it's necessary to rebuild at this moment, but had we had the guts to undertaken one 4 or 5 years back instead of constantly chasing miracles for fear of alienating the fanbase, there would be a much better product on the field today.

[Chip R]

But Chip, let's assume that Walt's talent evaluation puts Dickerson and Hannigan as ML backukp players at best. If they are confident in that evaluation, why bother giving them a bunch of playing time on blind hope?

Brandon Larson is an excellent example. I saw the guy plenty in AAA. IMO, it was clear he was not a ML 3b. He could not field. In addition, it was pretty clear that he wasn't likely to hit well in the ML. Yet the Reds moved Aaron to 2b and wasted about 1/2 of season before admitting that Larson was a flop.

Part of being a GM is to plan for contingencies. Hannigan and Dickerson will get opportunities next year. If Hannigan plays well, he's probably the #1 catcher in 2010. Dickerson is going to get some time in LF to prove himself.
The nice thing is that the Reds aren't stuck with playing these guys if they do flop. Neither of these guys are exactly blue chip prospects.

It really doesn't matter if Dickerson plays LF or CF next year. As long as he gets some playing time, the Reds can figure out if he's in the long term plan or not.


At least Larson got the chance to prove he couldn't do it on an everyday basis. That's all I'm saying about guys like Hanigan and Dickerson. Give them the opportunity to show that they can either be an everyday player or they can't. That's how players get pigeonholed. A left handed kid comes up from the minors and they won't let him play against lefties because he's left handed. Then word gets around that he can't hit lefties. Maybe if they gave the guy a chance, he could learn how to hit lefties. I shudder to think what would have happened if the Reds had had a RH hitting 1st baseman on the roster at the beginning of last year. Votto would have been a platoon player and we'd never know if he' could hit left handed pitching. Agree with me or disagree with me, I don't care. All I'm asking is what harm could it do to play the young players every day?

I'll say this about JimBo, he wasn't reluctant to get young players out there so they could prove what they could do. He couldn't and still can't find pitching with a map and a compass but he wasn't afraid to let the kids play. Some didn't work out like Larson but others did well like Casey and Boone and Pokey for a couple of years.

[dsmith421]

Could fans extend patience and support (perhaps even optimism) in that scenario?

That kind of honesty is so foreign to the ownership of the Cincinnati Reds that I wouldn't even know how to react.

I guess I'd be more inclined to support the team if I really felt there was a plan in place and that those responsible for implementing the plan understood the challenges involved.

[jojo]

We'll find out, won't we... The AL West is going to be an interesting division to follow over the next few years. I remember similar things being said when the current management groups took over in Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. I don't remember fan revolts... Of course, similar things were also said in Kansas City. At the end of the day, the Fans don't care about what you say, they care about what quality of team you field.

GMs would be a lot better off simply focusing on fielding the best team possible for the longest period of time than trying to appease a fickle fan base in a given year.

What's funny to me is that people around here seem to think that the Reds organization has something to lose by admitting it stinks, has stunk, and committing to an open and honest plan that involves not necessarily being in the playoffs (insert year of quote here).

That's not to say it's necessary to rebuild at this moment, but had we had the guts to undertaken one 4 or 5 years back instead of constantly chasing miracles for fear of alienating the fanbase, there would be a much better product on the field today.

To me it's really becoming a credibility issue. Words are just words (winning is important to us....the losing stops now) so to ask us to have patience, we have to have some reason to believe things have a chance of getting better.

In Seattle it took a radical reorganization of the FO and adoption of a philosophy that is counter to their ownership's standard MO to make me entertain the notion that the new faces weren't just lipstick on a pig.

I could be reading things wrong but the Reds fan base seems to be in need of some life support.

[wheels]

To me it's really becoming a credibility issue. Words are just words (winning is important to us....the losing stops now) so to ask us to have patience, we have to have some reason to believe things have a chance of getting better.

In Seattle it took a radical reorganization of the FO and adoption of a philosophy that is counter to their ownership's standard MO to make me entertain the notion that the new faces weren't just lipstick on a pig.

I could be reading things wrong but the Reds fan base seems to be in need of some life support.

Life support is right.

I'm more interested in the Indians' new AAA park here in Columbus than I am the Reds.

I'm almost done as a Reds fan.

[RedEye]

Life support is right.

I'm more interested in the Indians' new AAA park here in Columbus than I am the Reds.

I'm almost done as a Reds fan.

I'm seriously thinking of adopting the Marlins now that I've moved to Florida. If and when they get their new ballpark within a few minutes of my house, the Reds may be dead to me. I'm only half kidding.

[remdog]

I'm seriously thinking of adopting the Marlins now that I've moved to Florida. If and when they get their new ballpark within a few minutes of my house, the Reds may be dead to me. I'm only half kidding.

I've lived in SoCal for 30 years since moving from Cincinnati. The Reds remain my favorite, and most frustrating team. However, I've developed an interest in the Pads, Angels and (yes) even the Dodgers because they are the 'local' teams (for someone living in Orange County).

The other thing is that between those three teams, they've all shown more apptitude over the last 15 years that they are, simply speaking, better organized than the Reds.

If you're a fan of baseball there is no reason to not 'connect' with an organization that knows what they are doing, especially if they are your 'local' team. Honestly, I have to say that the Reds have not demonstrated that ability for years.

Rem

[Screwball]

I'll always be a Reds fan first and foremost. No team, under any circumstance, could ever supplant them.

[Sea Ray]

I'm seriously thinking of adopting the Marlins now that I've moved to Florida. If and when they get their new ballpark within a few minutes of my house, the Reds may be dead to me. I'm only half kidding.

You're asking for the same problems if you replace the Reds with the Marlins. You'll constantly be trying to catch lightening in a bottle.

[Sea Ray]

I've lived in SoCal for 30 years since moving from Cincinnati. The Reds remain my favorite, and most frustrating team. However, I've developed an interest in the Pads, Angels and (yes) even the Dodgers because they are the 'local' teams (for someone living in Orange County).

The other thing is that between those three teams, they've all shown more apptitude over the last 15 years that they are, simply speaking, better organized than the Reds.

If you're a fan of baseball there is no reason to not 'connect' with an organization that knows what they are doing, especially if they are your 'local' team. Honestly, I have to say that the Reds have not demonstrated that ability for years.

Rem


The Reds have probably had the worst 15 yr stretch in their history. The Angels and Dodgers have a lot of money to work with. Sure the Reds haven't been real smart either but notice how very few small market teams are "smart". Even the exceptions like the Twins and A's at the end of the year tend to fall just short.

The Dodgers are in a position to sign Manny and if that doesn't work out may still end up with a guy like Dunn. It doesn't take smarts to sign Manny or Dunn, just $$. Honestly with all the Dodger resources it's kind of mind boggling that they're still basically a .500 team. Maybe they turned the corner on that in 2008. The Padres meanwhile may dump Peavy in order to save money.