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View Full Version : Oh Dusty! You just don't get it!



Nasty_Boy
01-22-2009, 03:55 PM
From trent's interview:

CTR: What role to you see for Willy Taveras?

DB: His role is he’s our centerfielder and he’s our leadoff man, which is what we were looking for. The fact that he’s so young (28), he’s going to get better. I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. A guy who had whatever he had, 30-doubles and double-digits in triples and 60 stolen bases. He’s in scoring position a whole bunch of times.


This is the sort of thing that leads to Patterson leading off for over half the season. Does the man not realize that Taveras had more steals than runs scored? How about he couldn't have been in scoring position that much, if he didn't score more than that with Holiday and Atkins hitting behind him. He doesn't even know how bad Willy was at getting extra base hits. Well at least, he's not clogging up those bases!

mlh1981
01-22-2009, 03:56 PM
But hey, at least we got his speed! Ya know, because that is SO important in the cavernous outfield of Great American Ballpark :rolleyes:

Emin3mShady07
01-22-2009, 04:00 PM
From trent's interview:

CTR: What role to you see for Willy Taveras?

DB: His role is hes our centerfielder and hes our leadoff man, which is what we were looking for. The fact that hes so young (28), hes going to get better. I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. A guy who had whatever he had, 30-doubles and double-digits in triples and 60 stolen bases. Hes in scoring position a whole bunch of times.


This is the sort of thing that leads to Patterson leading off for over half the season. Does the man not realize that Taveras had more steals than runs scored? How about he couldn't have been in scoring position that much, if he didn't score more than that with Holiday and Atkins hitting behind him. He doesn't even know how bad Willy was at getting extra base hits. Well at least, he's not clogging up those bases!

"in-scoring postion percentage" LMAO Dusty should really try not to be an idiot when he speaks, I have a new sig now.

mroby85
01-22-2009, 04:01 PM
Manager of the year 3 times.
Give him a good team and they'll win, give him crap, and they'll play like last year.
He may not be the greatest ever, but we haven't won since jack mckeon, so hearin Dusty get blamed for stuff gets a little old.

CesarGeronimo
01-22-2009, 04:02 PM
Even if Dusty's way was the correct way to evaluate a leadoff hitter, he's not even in the ballpark on Willy's stats. He actually had only 15 doubles and two triples last year.

Double-digits in triples??? Dusty must be talking about Willy's entire career. In 4+ major league seasons (2,170 at bats), he has 13 triples and 60 doubles.

Slyder
01-22-2009, 04:55 PM
Manager of the year 3 times.
Give him a good team and they'll win, give him crap, and they'll play like last year.
He may not be the greatest ever, but we haven't won since jack mckeon, so hearin Dusty get blamed for stuff gets a little old.

Helps to have the greatest player of a generation and another HOF to put in the middle of that wreck of a lineup like he had in SF. They won inspite of him.

He's making stuff up to try and cover the move. The extra base hits (or lack there of) was one of the big reasons Tavares screamed of the stupidity. If you cant hit for at least 30 doubles and 10 triples in COORS youre not going to do it ANYWHERE. He cant hit his way out of a wet paper bag or having trouble hitting HRs in a LL Field. Anyone ought to be able to see that.

bounty37h
01-22-2009, 04:56 PM
Manager of the year 3 times.
Give him a good team and they'll win, give him crap, and they'll play like last year.
He may not be the greatest ever, but we haven't won since jack mckeon, so hearin Dusty get blamed for stuff gets a little old.

Word! The greatest of managers would have a hard time winning with these guys we have had through here.

UPRedsFan
01-22-2009, 05:16 PM
I don't blame Dusty for this. Isn't it the GM's job to evaluate performance and understand stats when making aquisitions? Isn't it the GM's job to "coach" the manager on these things when putting together a team.

Dusty's job is to maintain a cohesive club house, lead the guys, keep spirits up, motivate, make sure people are ready to play, understand fatigue and injuries and manage that process, work with the young players and help their development, help their psyche when they hit slumps, ask the right veteran guy to mentor the right young guy, make out the lineup (ok room for improvement here), and manage the bullpen. He seems pretty effective at these responsibilities. Better than Narron, better than Miley.

What else is he supposed to say about Taveras? That's who Walt gave him for center field. Walt is the one I question here. Walt should understand the OBP issue. Walt should understand the chances for better results with a Dickerson/Hairston platoon and spend money instead on a left fielder. That's the head scratcher. I thought Walt did understand those things!

Stephenk29
01-22-2009, 05:39 PM
Double-digits in triples??? Dusty must be talking about Willy's entire career. In 4+ major league seasons (2,170 at bats), he has 13 triples and 60 doubles.

:bowrofl:

Good work Dusty. I'm not one to usually complain about him but that is just ignorant.

Bip Roberts
01-22-2009, 05:44 PM
Dude needs to be fired for just being so dumb so many times. This isnt the only time hes just either flat out made crap up or lied in hopes that no one will check if he was lying.

Bip Roberts
01-22-2009, 05:45 PM
"in-scoring postion percentage" LMAO Dusty should really try not to be an idiot when he speaks, I have a new sig now.

Lets say he steals 50 bases and they all come when hes on 1st. He might be in scoring position 60 times next year :laugh:

Kingspoint
01-22-2009, 05:55 PM
I agree with Dusty that it's more important for the #1 hitter (and, to me, the #2 hitter) to get to 2nd Base, than it is to get to 1st Base. I evaluate them exactly the same way.

However, if their ability to get to 1st Base is "putrid", as was the case last year with Taveras and the last several years with Patterson, then that player negates the positives about his ability to get to 2nd Base.

In this case, Dickerson would be a much better Center Fielder and Hairston can play Left, while the two of them would be a good 1-2 in the leadoff spots. If one slumps, he can move to #8 until he's out of his slump.

Bip Roberts
01-22-2009, 06:00 PM
I agree with Dusty that it's more important for the #1 hitter (and, to me, the #2 hitter) to get to 2nd Base, than it is to get to 1st Base.

Its just a shame you have to get to 1st base before you get to 2nd base 100% of the time. Not to mention he thinks taveras gets to 2nd base a high amount of times when thats just not remotely true.

Kingspoint
01-22-2009, 06:01 PM
Its just a shame you have to get to 1st base before you get to 2nd base 100% of the time. Not to mention he thinks taveras gets to 2nd base a high amount of times when thats just not remotely true.

I didn't get to finish my post before I accidentally hit the return key. But, I agree with you.

Kingspoint
01-22-2009, 06:02 PM
Let us hope we hit lightening in a bottle with Taveras, however unlikely if you go back and read the Denver Post articles from last season.

Orodle
01-22-2009, 06:54 PM
Honestly I dont see a huge problem with starting Tavares in Cf and leading him off......but if he fails in that position the thing I'm worried about is Dusty refusing to take him out of that role (ie Corey Patterson)

Bip Roberts
01-22-2009, 06:55 PM
Honestly I dont see a huge problem with starting Tavares in Cf and leading him off......but if he fails in that position the thing I'm worried about is Dusty refusing to take him out of that role (ie Corey Patterson)

My problem is unless he has career years for the next 2 years he still isnt going to be worth playing every day

akron3344
01-22-2009, 08:21 PM
the reds seem to reject sabremetrics, maybe they are hoping for a breakout year from George Wright(1860)

Bip Roberts
01-22-2009, 08:22 PM
the reds seem to reject sabremetrics, maybe they are hoping for a breakout year from George Wright(1860)

Dusty is on a whole new level of ignoring stats

akron3344
01-22-2009, 08:26 PM
Because he, himself is a florid ignoramus, someone who confuses the so called instinct for the game with facts, the fact of the matter is he is incredibly lazy, it takes work to study statistics, it is easier to rely on hackneyed nostrums about instinct

redsfandan
01-22-2009, 09:10 PM
Honestly I dont see a huge problem with starting Tavares in Cf and leading him off......but if he fails in that position the thing I'm worried about is Dusty refusing to take him out of that role (ie Corey Patterson)

x2 definitely not my 1st choice but considering how the economy is for all businesses I'm ok with it. IF he doesn't suck.

texasdave
01-22-2009, 09:25 PM
I honestly hope Willy T. throws up a .360 OBP and steals 80 bases. That would be great. I don't even think it is out of the realm of what is possible. My problem is with the handling of the Taveras situation. First of all, what was the rush to sign him? I firmly believe the Reds could have found a similar level talent, for a lower price, probably right up until Opening Day. Secondly, why give him two years - especially at 4 million for the second year? Make him earn that second year. Make it dependent upon how he produces in year one. Thirdly, why rush to hand him the CF job and the leadoff position? What, exactly, has Taveras done for this or any other club that has earned him a guaranteed starting position? Nothing as far as I can tell. A little Spring Training competition seems to be in order. I don't understand the infatuation with this guy. I hope Dusty and Walt are right on this one. And, if not, I hope they are quicker to set him down than they were with CPatt.

JoshFogg
01-22-2009, 09:28 PM
Dusty is a scapegoat. This team is terrible, has been terrible and will be terrible. Is Dusty a great Manager? No, certainly not. But, its not like he is impeding them from greatness. He is just joining in the futility.

Slyder
01-22-2009, 10:41 PM
Dusty is a scapegoat. This team is terrible, has been terrible and will be terrible. Is Dusty a great Manager? No, certainly not. But, its not like he is impeding them from greatness. He is just joining in the futility.

He maybe but when he goes out there and pulls stuff out his.... um sittin muscle he eliminates any sympathy from me. It be one thing if he were just holding the line of something like "ready for spring training", saying that he's excited to see what the OF will do with more speed (without declaring CF competition over), or something like that without doing the shear stupid quotes that people can put into signatures I wouldnt be near as hard on him as FO right now, but everytime he opens his mouth he blurts out the stupidity.

An old phrase comes to mind. Better to be thought a fool than open your mouth and remove all doubt.

Slyder
01-22-2009, 10:45 PM
I honestly hope Willy T. throws up a .360 OBP and steals 80 bases. That would be great. I don't even think it is out of the realm of what is possible. My problem is with the handling of the Taveras situation. First of all, what was the rush to sign him? I firmly believe the Reds could have found a similar level talent, for a lower price, probably right up until Opening Day. Secondly, why give him two years - especially at 4 million for the second year? Make him earn that second year. Make it dependent upon how he produces in year one. Thirdly, why rush to hand him the CF job and the leadoff position? What, exactly, has Taveras done for this or any other club that has earned him a guaranteed starting position? Nothing as far as I can tell. A little Spring Training competition seems to be in order. I don't understand the infatuation with this guy. I hope Dusty and Walt are right on this one. And, if not, I hope they are quicker to set him down than they were with CPatt.

I hope which ever bus stop WJ and Baker were at someone on here asks/asked and reports it. Cause I know theres been many to ask those very questions.

Davis>Bruce
01-23-2009, 07:42 AM
He's making stuff up to try and cover the move.

Why does he have to cover the move...his last name is not Jocketty.

Nasty_Boy
01-23-2009, 10:57 AM
Jocketty wasn't the one that pushed for Taveras, it was Quirk and Dusty. But Walt should have put his foot down and at least got the Reds a more favorable deal, because Willy flat out pulled the wool over our eyes.

As far as Dusty having to play the hand he is dealt... Here is my main problem and why I detest Dusty so freaking much. He doesn't know the numbers, he literally only cares if his leadoff hitter is fast, it doesn't matter if he gets on base at a decent percentage. He hits guys in the batting order out of respect and according to what side of the plate they hit. It makes no sense to give more at bats to someone because he's right hand just to prevent the chance that they will bring in a LOOGY in the 8th inning. Most of last season he had Dunn, Votto, and Edwin hitting in the 5-6-7 spots and they were the best offensive players on the team. He needs to pay attention to splits and realize that BP should hit no higher than 6th against a RHP. This is why he's a terrible manager!

Ghosts of 1990
01-23-2009, 01:07 PM
since when is 28 "young and going to get better". by 28 you know what you have and you usually are what you are.

BLEEDS
01-23-2009, 07:22 PM
Because he, himself is a florid ignoramus, someone who confuses the so called instinct for the game with facts, the fact of the matter is he is incredibly lazy, it takes work to study statistics, it is easier to rely on hackneyed nostrums about instinct

That is awesome.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
01-23-2009, 07:29 PM
Rotoworld, who tends to say things that are obvious to the rest of the world in a sarcastic sort of way because it's funny how someone like Baker who's in the game can be so far removed from reality, has this to say about it:

Manager Dusty Baker confirmed Thursday that Willy Taveras will be the Reds' leadoff hitter.

Naturally, Baker focuses on Taveras' speed rather than his .331 career on-base percentage. "His role is he's our center fielder and our leadoff man," Baker said. "The fact that he's so young, he's going to get better. A lot of people talk about his on-base percentage. I like to think in terms of him getting into scoring position." If you're curious, the "so young" Taveras turned 27 last month.

ochre
01-23-2009, 07:33 PM
Even if Dusty's way was the correct way to evaluate a leadoff hitter, he's not even in the ballpark on Willy's stats. He actually had only 15 doubles and two triples last year.

Double-digits in triples??? Dusty must be talking about Willy's entire career. In 4+ major league seasons (2,170 at bats), he has 13 triples and 60 doubles.
and the greatest part of all, for being in scoring position all those times, he had 64 R last year. More SB than R. I wonder how many times that has occurred.

texasdave
01-24-2009, 10:47 AM
and the greatest part of all, for being in scoring position all those times, he had 64 R last year. More SB than R. I wonder how many times that has occurred.

I thought RBI and RS were team-dependent stats? I guess not when taking potshots at Willy Taveras. I just looked up one prolific base-stealer and noticed it happened to him twice in his career. Hall-of-Famer Rickey Henderson stole
130 bases and scored 119 runs in 1982. He came back the next season and stole 108 bases while scoring 105 runs. He OPSed .398 and .414 respectively in those two seasons. So if it can happen to Rickey twice, it has probably happened to others.

akron3344
01-24-2009, 11:22 AM
ricky henderson and taveras have as much in common as Juan Marichal and Tim Pugh

Emin3mShady07
01-24-2009, 11:25 AM
I thought RBI and RS were team-dependent stats? I guess not when taking potshots at Willy Taveras. I just looked up one prolific base-stealer and noticed it happened to him twice in his career. Hall-of-Famer Rickey Henderson stole
130 bases and scored 119 runs in 1982. He came back the next season and stole 108 bases while scoring 105 runs. He OPSed .398 and .414 respectively in those two seasons. So if it can happen to Rickey twice, it has probably happened to others.

RBI and runs are certainly team dependent stats, but anyways, it isn't how many bases you steal, its how effective you were at it. Taveras was above 90% last year and he stole a ton of bases, so his baserunning numbers were through the roof. However, his career % is something like 82%, I think I posted this somewhere before, so him duplicating that success rate seems very unlikely to me. Also, do you mean Henderson's OBP was .398 and .414? That seems way, way too low for an OPS.

Bip Roberts
01-24-2009, 11:34 AM
he means OBP

texasdave
01-24-2009, 11:36 AM
My bad. I did mean OBP.

TheNext44
01-24-2009, 02:33 PM
I think that Taveras was a bad signing and that he will be as bad in 09 as he was in 08. I also think that Dusty is dead wrong about his being in scoring position will make up for his low OBP.

That said, I just don't think that having a speedy leadoff hitter who has trouble getting on base is the death of an offense. It is not good, but it is not as horrible as some people are making it out to be. Many teams have been successful with such a hitter leading off. Heck, Taveras himself was on two teams that played in the World Series. I know that they got there in spite of him, and not because of him, but that is my point. Teams can overcome a bad leadoff hitter. And the 05 Astros and 07 Rockies were not the Yankees or Reds Sox, so it can be done with a mid market team.

Slyder
01-24-2009, 02:36 PM
One of those teams had a rotation consisting of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt to make up for his inepitude leading off, Brad Ausmus, and Adam Everett in the same lineup.

The other Tavares played in what 97 games and got Benched when they made their run in September? I dont see either scenario for the reds to "repeat" Tavares' success at getting to the World Series.

TheNext44
01-24-2009, 02:56 PM
One of those teams had a rotation consisting of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt to make up for his inepitude leading off.

The other Tavares played in what 97 games and got Benched when they made their run in September? I dont see either scenario for the reds to "repeat" Tavares' success at getting to the World Series.



Not saying the Reds get to the World Series this year, or even the Playoffs. Just saying that they can compete.

I also think that Volquez, Cueto, Harang matchup pretty well against Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt. Not as good, but close. And Taveras did not get benched in 07, he was hurt. He actually was having his best season, and started in the playoffs.

And there are lots of examples of teams competing with a speedy, OBP challenged leadoff hitter, when I have time, I will try to compile a list.

Slyder
01-24-2009, 03:05 PM
Not saying the Reds get to the World Series this year, or even the Playoffs. Just saying that they can compete.

I also think that Volquez, Cueto, Harang matchup pretty well against Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt. Not as good, but close. And Taveras did not get benched in 07, he was hurt. He actually was having his best season, and started in the playoffs.

And there are lots of examples of teams competing with a speedy, OBP challenged leadoff hitter, when I have time, I will try to compile a list.

And if you look at those teams youll probably see a monsterous middle of the order or absolutely sick pitching staff to compensate. I like Cueto and Volquez as much as the next guy but they havent even come close to pitching near the level those 3 had. Even Harang probably couldnt be considered in the same zip code and he (pre 08) was our most stable pitcher since maybe who?

Roy Oswalt 20-12 2.97 ERA
Andy Pettitte 17-9 2.39 ERA
Roger Clemens 13-8 1.87 ERA

Thats not even including 3 guys that could be compared to the Nasty Boys in Lidge, Qualls, and Wheeler at the end of games making them 7 inning affairs.

Im sorry Volquez, Cueto, and Harang cant even APPROACH that. Volquez we saw him do it for arguably 2/3 of the year, can he repeat? Maybe. But Cueto would have to make HUGE stride to get there and Harang would have to go to a point that he has never even reached at this point in his career.

BLEEDS
01-27-2009, 03:49 PM
That said, I just don't think that having a speedy leadoff hitter who has trouble getting on base is the death of an offense. It is not good, but it is not as horrible as some people are making it out to be. Many teams have been successful with such a hitter leading off. Heck, Taveras himself was on two teams that played in the World Series. I know that they got there in spite of him, and not because of him, but that is my point. Teams can overcome a bad leadoff hitter. And the 05 Astros and 07 Rockies were not the Yankees or Reds Sox, so it can be done with a mid market team.

Yeah, it can be done if you have 8 other guys that are MONSTROUSLY above VORP, and can win in spite of an anchor like that on their team.

Unfortunately the other 8 guys on this team aren't even close to the standards required to win in spite of this.
We have been sold that this is a Serious Upgrade as opposed to the Seriously Unnecessary Burden that is actually is.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
01-27-2009, 10:04 PM
I also think that Volquez, Cueto, Harang matchup pretty well against Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt. Not as good, but close.

That's 3 potential Hall of Famer's... I don't think close should even be expected out of Volquie, Johnny, and Aaron. If either of the 2 young guys have half the career of any of those 3 then we should consider ourselves lucky.

TheNext44
01-27-2009, 10:52 PM
Yeah, it can be done if you have 8 other guys that are MONSTROUSLY above VORP, and can win in spite of an anchor like that on their team.

Unfortunately the other 8 guys on this team aren't even close to the standards required to win in spite of this.
We have been sold that this is a Serious Upgrade as opposed to the Seriously Unnecessary Burden that is actually is.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

1980 Houston Astros N.L. West Winners
Rafeal Landestoy leading off most of the season: .306 OBP
1985 Kansas City Royals World Series Winners
Willie Wilson leading off most of the season: .316 OBP
1985 St. Louis Cardinals National League Champs
Vince Coleman leading off most of the season: .320 OBP
1991 Minnesota Twins World Series Winners
Dan Gladden leading off most of the season: .306 OBP
1995 Cincinnati Reds N.L. West Winners
Deion Sanders/Darren Lewis leading off most of the time: .296/.324 OBP
1997 Florida Marlins World Series Winners
Luis Castillo leading off most of the season: .310 OBP
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks World Series Winners
Tony Womack leading off most of the season: .307 OBP
2007 Arizona Diamondbacks N.L. West Winners
Chris Young leading off most of the time: .295 OBP

Check out the lineups of these teams. I don't think you will find any of them with more guys who are "MONSTROUSLY above VORP" than the Reds will have next year.

This list took me 23 minutes on Baseball-Reference to compile. Give me a day and I am sure I can find many more. I don't like Taveras leading off, or even getting playing time for that matter, but speedy leadoff guys with low OBP h ave been overcome in the past, and I think it is possible, if not likely, that the Reds could do that this year.

TheNext44
01-27-2009, 10:55 PM
And if you look at those teams youll probably see a monsterous middle of the order or absolutely sick pitching staff to compensate. I like Cueto and Volquez as much as the next guy but they havent even come close to pitching near the level those 3 had. Even Harang probably couldnt be considered in the same zip code and he (pre 08) was our most stable pitcher since maybe who?

Roy Oswalt 20-12 2.97 ERA
Andy Pettitte 17-9 2.39 ERA
Roger Clemens 13-8 1.87 ERA

Thats not even including 3 guys that could be compared to the Nasty Boys in Lidge, Qualls, and Wheeler at the end of games making them 7 inning affairs.

Im sorry Volquez, Cueto, and Harang cant even APPROACH that. Volquez we saw him do it for arguably 2/3 of the year, can he repeat? Maybe. But Cueto would have to make HUGE stride to get there and Harang would have to go to a point that he has never even reached at this point in his career.


I admit I was mistaken with that comment. Just my homer tendencies coming out. Thanks for correcting me.

Slyder
01-27-2009, 11:21 PM
what do you want to consider the "Moneyball" where people started caring more so for OBP?

1985 KC Royals had 2 guys with sub 3 eras (Saberhagen and Leibrandt) and Future Red Danny Jackson (3.42 ERA) anchoring the rotation with a devastating closer. 4 of their 5 starters pitched in at least 205 innings. ERA+ were 154, 145,121, 102, and 96 all above average (if im reading ERA+ right and 100 is "average").

1985 St. Louis Cards had John Tudor in there with a sub 2 era, Danny Cox sub 3 era, and 2 other guys at 3.40 and 3.90 ERA. A great Pen.

If you want I can do the rest. But to make up for that sort of lack fo "getting on base" they have to have 1 of 2 things. Absolutely sickening offense behind that or an absolutely sickening pitching staff that lets you win a crap ton of games 1-0 or 2-1.

Slyder
01-27-2009, 11:25 PM
I admit I was mistaken with that comment. Just my homer tendencies coming out. Thanks for correcting me.

I have high hopes, like most Reds fans, for Cueto and Volquez but to ask them to match what Houston got out of their big 3 is hoping a bit much out of 2 guys who have ~2 years combined. Its easy to forget just how great Oswalt, Pettite, and Clemens were that year.

Roush's socks
01-27-2009, 11:41 PM
All of this Taveras bashing has me thinking about the whole "Sabermetrics VS. Instincts/OldSchool" way of evaluating ball players. I am old enough to remember when Bill James first published his Baseball Abstracts and changed the way people looked at low OBP % speedy lead-off hitters. He wrote several essays about the subject and now everyone has accepted his argument that OBP is more important than SB's and speed for a leadoff (or any other) hitter.
While I agree with this for the most part, I think now fans have swung so far in the other direction that they are missing out on some of the reasons why managers like to have base stealers at the top of the lineup. It is not only to get in scoring position. It is also to "break down" a pitcher. Back when HR's were harder to hit, teams relied more on strategy or small ball. When a player gets on base and threatens to steal, he "gets into the head" of the pitcher. Now the pitcher has to pay attention to him, possibly make some throws to keep him closer, change his pitching stance, throw a faster delivery etc. Theoretically this helps to wear down a pitcher in the long run and make it easier to hit them. Whether this works is up to the players involved, but that is the general idea.
If Dusty wants this kind of player for leadoff, Taveras is the man. As said before, he steals in the 80-90% range. He was a starting player for 2 WS teams. Was the management involved in those teams also so stupid that they started a terrible player? I think y'all are going a little overboard in trashing Taveras.

Slyder
01-28-2009, 12:03 AM
If Dusty wants this kind of player for leadoff, Taveras is the man. As said before, he steals in the 80-90% range. He was a starting player for 2 WS teams. Was the management involved in those teams also so stupid that they started a terrible player? I think y'all are going a little overboard in trashing Taveras.

I'm sry for venting so much tonight been a long day and a pain in the butt day just to get by with the roads an absolute wreck (took me almost 2 hours to drive a normal 30 minute drive this morning and had almost 5 wrecks with morons). Were not going to go out there and pay 100 mil for a team so we really cant afford to make too many mistakes.

BLEEDS
01-28-2009, 01:28 AM
what do you want to consider the "Moneyball" where people started caring more so for OBP?

1985 KC Royals had 2 guys with sub 3 eras (Saberhagen and Leibrandt) and Future Red Danny Jackson (3.42 ERA) anchoring the rotation with a devastating closer. 4 of their 5 starters pitched in at least 205 innings. ERA+ were 154, 145,121, 102, and 96 all above average (if im reading ERA+ right and 100 is "average").

1985 St. Louis Cards had John Tudor in there with a sub 2 era, Danny Cox sub 3 era, and 2 other guys at 3.40 and 3.90 ERA. A great Pen.

If you want I can do the rest. But to make up for that sort of lack fo "getting on base" they have to have 1 of 2 things. Absolutely sickening offense behind that or an absolutely sickening pitching staff that lets you win a crap ton of games 1-0 or 2-1.

What he said.
97 Marlins and 01 and 07 Diamondbacks. SICK PITCHING.

Other than that, you're giving me teams from the 1980's!??!?!?!?

I.R.R.E.L.E.V.E.N.T.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TheNext44
01-28-2009, 02:27 AM
What he said.
97 Marlins and 01 and 07 Diamondbacks. SICK PITCHING.

Other than that, you're giving me teams from the 1980's!??!?!?!?

I.R.R.E.L.E.V.E.N.T.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Not sure why teams in the 80's are irrelevant (not irrelevent, no worries, I can't spell either), love to hear why. Again, my point is not that OBP is not important, just that the difference between having a speedy low OBP leadoff hitter, and a high OBP leadoff hitter is not enough to ruin a team's season. If teams were able to win with that in the 80's, why can't they win now?

And of course the team needs to be good in all other areas to make up for a bad leadoff hitter, but that is my point, it is possible to make up for it.

Here is a breakdown of those teams "sick" pitching staffs.

1997 Marlins:

One stud, Kevin Brown - ERA+ 150
One very good mid season call up, Livan Hernandez - ERA+ 127
One good pitcher Alex Fernandez - ERA+ 113
Three below average pitchers - Al Leiter, Pat Rapp and Tony Saunders - ERA+ 93, 90, 88.
Very average bullpen, remember bullpen ERA+ is usually well above average. The top 5 relievers in innings averaged ERA+ 102. (Reds' bullpen last year averaged 134)

Overall, very good pitching staff, but not "sick". Good for 4th in NL in runs allowed.

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks

This one was sick. Johnson and Schilling in their prime (ERA+ 188 and 157) and a solid bullpen (combined ERA+ 128). However, behind Johnson and Schilling were a bunch of Josh Fogg types, well, maybe not that bad, but the ERA's rounding out the staff were 5.20, 5.77, 4.00 and 5.98.
They were second in the NL in runs allowed, so I would say sick with an *.

2007 Arizona Diamondbacks

One stud Brandon Webb - ERA+156
One very good Randy Johnson for 10 starts - ERA+ 123
Three average starters, Doug Davis, Micah Owings, Livan Hernadez - ERA+ 111, 109 and 95.
Great bullpen averaged ERA+ 164.
Tied for 3rd in NL for runs scored.

Overall, again very good, but not "sick" except for the bullpen.

These were all very good teams, and that is why they were able to overcome the poor leadoff hitter, and win championships, but they were not exceptional, just good solid teams.
I think it is possible, maybe not likely, but definitely reasonably possible for either Volquez or Cueto to be a stud, with the other, along with Harang and Arroyo being above average, which would make them equal to these other teams.
Basically my point is that the Reds are going to need to be as solid as these teams to compete, no matter who their leadoff hitter is. This is true of all teams Having Taveras just makes it harder, not impossible.

Slyder
01-28-2009, 10:38 AM
2007 Arizona was also a plus 11 in pythag.

1997 Marlins were also pre yankee spending insanity. Also how quickly was this team also blown up because the Marlins spent every penny they had? Only a plus 4 in Pythag. As a team only allowed 669 runs I'd call that pretty sick.

Colorado 2007: Beside Votto who's shown anything to be our Todd Helton, Matt Holliday or Garrett Atkins? We HOPE Bruce and Edwin are it but neither has had the type of year eithe of them had in 07. They also score 860 runs as a team, which barring a miracle the Reds wont sniff.

All of these teams were much better constituted to compensate for Tavares type leadoff hitter.

BLEEDS
01-28-2009, 11:37 AM
If 3rd and 4th in runs allowed in the NL isn't considered "sick", what exactly is?

Also, you might want to check those lineups, you might find that they were just a tad more dangerous than the proposed 2009 Reds.

And, if you think the 80's methodology to winning baseball is the same as the 2000's, then maybe that explains why Reds fans are a little "out of touch" with today's game, much as is the FO I"m afraid...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TheNext44
01-28-2009, 02:52 PM
If 3rd and 4th in runs allowed in the NL isn't considered "sick", what exactly is?

Also, you might want to check those lineups, you might find that they were just a tad more dangerous than the proposed 2009 Reds.

And, if you think the 80's methodology to winning baseball is the same as the 2000's, then maybe that explains why Reds fans are a little "out of touch" with today's game, much as is the FO I"m afraid...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

3rd and 4th in the league in anything is not "sick". First in the league is sick, and not even all the time. "Sick" means unbelievably great, not repeatable, exceptional, so much better than everyone else that it is "sick". If there are better teams than you, by definition, you can't be "sick". You then are just very good. This is not the Special Olympics where everyone gets a medal. And that is clearly the way that you used it, to mean that the Reds must have a once in a lifetime, amazing pitching staff to overcome Taveras. I have shown that they do not, they just need a really good pitching staff, one of the best in the league.

And I never said that "the 80's methodology to winning baseball is the same as the 2000's". I just asked why, if having a low OBP, speedy leadoff hitter could win in the 80's, it can't win now. Just because we have figured out that there is a better way to win, does not mean that it is the only way to win. If doctors find a better way to cure infection other than antibiotics, one that is faster, and has less side effects, it doesn't mean that using antibiotics doesn't work anymore, just that it is not the best way. If all you have is antibiotics, it doesn't mean that you will die, just that your infection will be cured less effectively than the new way.

BLEEDS
01-28-2009, 03:20 PM
So you've shown 3 instances since 1995 where a bad/horrible leadoff hitter has resulted in a team going to the playoffs.

If that's your basis for hope for this year, more power to ya!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

DannyB
01-31-2009, 07:58 AM
:barf: