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Mario-Rijo
01-22-2009, 08:28 PM
I was just pouring over the #'s a bit. And looking at Net Pts is often a good indication of a teams general record. I wanted to get a sense of what this team would look like if they could simply just get back to normal on offense which I believe they can, coupled with the improvement from the defensive side of the ball that I feel they began to achieve.

A general rule of thumb for Net Pts is:
-200+ Epically awful regardless of season
-100+ is one of the worst teams that season
- 50+ below avg.
0 is around .500
+ 50+ is a good and likely playoff team
+100+ is one of the best teams that season
+200+ Epically good regardless of season
+300+ Once in a lifetime ('07 Pats)

Here's their rundown in this decade:
2000: 185 PF - 359 PA, Net Pts. -174, Record 4-12
2001: 226 PF - 309 PA, Net Pts. - 83, Record 6-10
2002: 279 PF - 456 PA, Net Pts. -177, Record 2-14
2003: 346 PF - 384 PA, Net Pts. - 38, Record 8-8 (Marvin's 1st Season)
2004: 374 PF - 372 PA, Net Pts. + 2, Record 8-8
2005: 421 PF - 350 PA, Net Pts. + 71, Record 11-5
2006: 373 PF - 331 PA, Net Pts. + 42, Record 8-8
2007: 380 PF - 385 PA, Net Pts. - 5, Record 7-9
2008: 204 PF - 364 PA, Net Pts. -160, Record 4-11-1

1st 8 games of '08 27.15 Pts. a game and a total of 217 pts.
last 8 games of '08 18.38 Pts. a game and a total of 147 pts. (x2 = 296 PA)

We seen that defense improve and the only time they gave up big points in the 2nd half of the season is when the offense couldn't move the ball (Pitt, Balt, Indy all games that were within 11 pts. at the half). Give the defense back some very important players (Rivers, Joseph, Odom, Geathers, Ndukwe) that help with a pass rush of some sort and that defense could get even better. I don't believe it's a stretch at all to believe we will finally see a sub 300 PA column and that might be being a bit pessimistic.

So if the offense can get back close to what they were, coupled with a lighter schedule and we are back in the playoffs next year IMO. Some food for thought.

Newport Red
01-22-2009, 09:23 PM
I hope you're right.

As a counter point. The teams they beat were 19 and 45 over the season. Didn't breat a team that finished with a winning record. Although Washington probably did at the time and tied a playoff team.

How are you expecting the offense to become average again... players getting healthy, good drafting, softer schedule.

Mario-Rijo
01-23-2009, 04:07 AM
I hope you're right.

As a counter point. The teams they beat were 19 and 45 over the season. Didn't breat a team that finished with a winning record. Although Washington probably did at the time and tied a playoff team.

How are you expecting the offense to become average again... players getting healthy, good drafting, softer schedule.

As to your counter point, how many teams would you expect us to beat with Fitzpatrick at the helm? Too me he's an ok kid but by no means Frank Reich, let alone a starter. I tend to think of him as a middle of the pack #2 QB at best.

I expect them to get the O-Line squared away nicely in the offseason that's the key. If Palmer is completely healthy and in the O-Line is squared away they need a solid RB which shouldn't really be difficult to find or afford. Let me say I am not completely sold on Benson being the guy but I think he could do well enough to keep defense's honest. Also I fully expect TJ back, although I am curious as to how they will work that out. The schedule is IMO icing on the cake.