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View Full Version : Dusty says to expect a platoon of Dickerson/Gomes in LF



Blitz Dorsey
01-22-2009, 07:47 PM
Not a big surprise, but those were his words just now on SportsTalk. Dickerson against righties, Gomes against lefties.

RedsManRick
01-22-2009, 07:49 PM
Frankly, I'm surprised -- pleasantly so. That said, the defensive difference between the two should be hilarious.

jojo
01-22-2009, 08:35 PM
Frankly, I'm surprised -- pleasantly so. That said, the defensive difference between the two should be hilarious.

Could you imagine the firestorm if they "replace" Dunn's production?

Falls City Beer
01-22-2009, 08:39 PM
Could you imagine the firestorm if they "replace" Dunn's production?

They won't, but it would be worth talking about. On second thought....

GADawg
01-22-2009, 08:48 PM
if that truly comes to fruition I'll be happy with Dickerson getting a shot at most of the playing time just to see if he is for real. Dude looks like Bernie Williams rounding the bases and that works for me...

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 08:53 PM
Could you imagine the firestorm if they "replace" Dunn's production?

Gomes is worse than Dunn defensively, worse than Dunn offensively.

Dickerson is light years better than Dunn defensively, light years worse than Dunn offensively.

I'd say the chances of those two combining to "replace" Dunn's production is slim to none, and slim left town...

jesusfan
01-22-2009, 08:55 PM
Gomes is worse than Dunn defensively, worse than Dunn offensively.

Dickerson is light years better than Dunn defensively, light years worse than Dunn offensively.

I'd say the chances of those two combining to "replace" Dunn's production is slim to none, and slim left town...

Yeah... but they will be way up there in scrapiness...

marcshoe
01-22-2009, 08:57 PM
If the Reds aren't going to add anybody else, this is the best we can hope for. It's better than putting Hairston out there.

Caveat Emperor
01-22-2009, 08:58 PM
My only hope is that Dickerson plays so well that it somehow dislodges Willy Taveras from the starting lineup.

I'm not sure how that'll happen, but it isn't going to stop me from hoping for it.

membengal
01-22-2009, 09:01 PM
Add me to the pleasantly surprised list. It's what I would have hoped for once they acquired Gomes and it became clear no other moves would be made, nice to have them be upfront about it.

_Sir_Charles_
01-22-2009, 09:02 PM
Why is it that people think that we have to "replace" Dunn's production in LF? It's up to the TEAM to replace his production. And between the improvement of Votto, Bruce, etc and the defensive improvement in multiple positions...I don't see much of a problem in replacing his production. At least coming close to it. Thinking that it's up to Dickerson/Gomes to equal Dunn is beyond idiotic. And furthermore, why would we want to replace his production...his production got us no closer to the playoffs than we are now. It's time to look at things in a different way IMO. I like what we've done so far, and I like our chances in the near future (a closer future than many here think).

jojo
01-22-2009, 09:05 PM
Gomes is worse than Dunn defensively, worse than Dunn offensively.

Dickerson is light years better than Dunn defensively, light years worse than Dunn offensively.

I'd say the chances of those two combining to "replace" Dunn's production is slim to none, and slim left town...

I think that might be the point of platooning them.

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:07 PM
My only hope is that Dickerson plays so well that it somehow dislodges Willy Taveras from the starting lineup.

I'm not sure how that'll happen, but it isn't going to stop me from hoping for it.

Do you believe in the following:

Easter Bunny
Tooth Fairy
Santa Claus

... b/c if so, then maybe your hope will come true...

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:09 PM
Why is it that people think that we have to "replace" Dunn's production in LF? It's up to the TEAM to replace his production. And between the improvement of Votto, Bruce, etc and the defensive improvement in multiple positions...I don't see much of a problem in replacing his production. At least coming close to it. Thinking that it's up to Dickerson/Gomes to equal Dunn is beyond idiotic. And furthermore, why would we want to replace his production...his production got us no closer to the playoffs than we are now. It's time to look at things in a different way IMO. I like what we've done so far, and I like our chances in the near future (a closer future than many here think).

Care to elaborate?

Multiple positions?

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:10 PM
I think that might be the point of platooning them.

So 2 people can't equal 1?

... b/c that's how I see that equation shaping up for 2009...

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:13 PM
Why is it that people think that we have to "replace" Dunn's production in LF? It's up to the TEAM to replace his production. And between the improvement of Votto, Bruce, etc and the defensive improvement in multiple positions...I don't see much of a problem in replacing his production. At least coming close to it. Thinking that it's up to Dickerson/Gomes to equal Dunn is beyond idiotic. And furthermore, why would we want to replace his production...his production got us no closer to the playoffs than we are now. It's time to look at things in a different way IMO. I like what we've done so far, and I like our chances in the near future (a closer future than many here think).

You're right, we need to do better than to just replace Dunn's production to get closer to the playoffs.

However, a platoon of Gomes/Dickerson won't even replace Dunn's production, so we're actually farther from the playoffs.

Whoops.

corkedbat
01-22-2009, 09:14 PM
My only hope is that Dickerson plays so well that it somehow dislodges Willy Taveras from the starting lineup.

I'm not sure how that'll happen, but it isn't going to stop me from hoping for it.

I'm resigned to Taveras starting the season in CF. I'm hoping that Dickerson plays well in LF and Dorn plays well enough that he forces his way onto the big roster.

I wouldn't mind seeing Dorn/Gomes splitting time in LF and Dickerson/Stubbs doing likewise in CF by the trade dealdine. Probably won't happen though.

Kc61
01-22-2009, 09:16 PM
If the Reds aren't going to add anybody else, this is the best we can hope for. It's better than putting Hairston out there.

Sure, who needs Hairston's .326 when you can have Gomes' .182 with worse defense? Reds can easily spare that .144 points of batting average, who needs it.

Well, it doesn't matter, Hairston will get his at bats, but it's a little premature to trash the guy. He may have been the best player on the team much of last year.

Yes, yes, I've read the predictions of Hairston's demise as a player next year. We'll see. I'm kind of glad he'll be around, as unfashionable that viewpoint may be around here.

Falls City Beer
01-22-2009, 09:20 PM
Sure, who needs Hairston's .326 when you can have Gomes' .182 with worse defense? Reds can easily spare that .144 points of batting average, who needs it.

Well, it doesn't matter, Hairston will get his at bats, but it's a little premature to trash the guy. He may have been the best player on the team much of last year.

Yes, yes, I've read the predictions of Hairston's demise as a player next year. We'll see. I'm kind of glad he'll be around, as unfashionable that viewpoint may be around here.

Hairston's going to get a bunch of time at SS. No way Gonzalez's knee will stand up to a full year of punishment.

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:21 PM
Sure, who needs Hairston's .326 when you can have Gomes' .182 with worse defense? Reds can easily spare that .144 points of batting average, who needs it.

Well, it doesn't matter, Hairston will get his at bats, but it's a little premature to trash the guy. He may have been the best player on the team much of last year.

Yes, yes, I've read the predictions of Hairston's demise as a player next year. We'll see. But let's go slow in pronouncing Mr. Gomes the answer.

You really think Hairston will 1, be healthy to play more than 80 games (which he did last year for the 1st time since 2005....), and 2, hit for an AVG over .300 for more than 260 AB (which he's only done twice in his entire career) ?

Fans should be very afraid of their Cincinnati Reds if Hairston is talked about as being a guy we need big things from in 2009....

_Sir_Charles_
01-22-2009, 09:24 PM
Care to elaborate?

Multiple positions?

Over the beginning of last season, Votto has improved, Bruce has taken over for Junior, Dickerson is taking over for Dunn, Gonzo is taking over for Kepp at short, and Hanigan/Hernandez is an improvement over Bako/Ross/Javy too. I'd call that multiple positions.

_Sir_Charles_
01-22-2009, 09:28 PM
You're right, we need to do better than to just replace Dunn's production to get closer to the playoffs.

However, a platoon of Gomes/Dickerson won't even replace Dunn's production, so we're actually farther from the playoffs.

Whoops.

Again, you're looking at it from the perspective of one position to one position. While Gomes/Dickerson alone won't replace Dunn's stats, they will replace SOME of them. The improvement of our other players will replace some more. So no...we're NOT farther from the playoffs. We're more balanced and therefore CLOSER to the playoffs. Sometimes people tend to get so focused on one player or one position or one aspect of the game that they forget that this is a team game and the sum of the parts doesn't equal the whole.

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:30 PM
Over the beginning of last season, Votto has improved, Bruce has taken over for Junior, Dickerson is taking over for Dunn, Gonzo is taking over for Kepp at short, and Hanigan/Hernandez is an improvement over Bako/Ross/Javy too. I'd call that multiple positions.

LF improve
CF worse
RF improve
3B who knows?
SS status quo at best, most likely worse
2B maintain
1B I'd hope Votto gets better, but has he really improved?
C Hernandez isn't an improvement, and since he'll get the majority of PT, he negates the improvement Hanigan might be...

... k, ya got me... LF and RF got better while others got worse...

Kc61
01-22-2009, 09:39 PM
You really think Hairston will 1, be healthy to play more than 80 games (which he did last year for the 1st time since 2005....), and 2, hit for an AVG over .300 for more than 260 AB (which he's only done twice in his entire career) ?

Fans should be very afraid of their Cincinnati Reds if Hairston is talked about as being a guy we need big things from in 2009....

I have no idea how healthy Hairston will be, neither does anyone else. But on this team, as it currently stands, I'm hopeful Hairston gets a lot of at bats because he showed me last year a performance level that can't reasonably be expected from many of these guys.

It's fashionable to trash Hairston around here, but he finally put it together last year by being more selective at the plate. I don't see why he necessarily has to revert to earlier bad years.

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:41 PM
Again, you're looking at it from the perspective of one position to one position. While Gomes/Dickerson alone won't replace Dunn's stats, they will replace SOME of them. The improvement of our other players will replace some more. So no...we're NOT farther from the playoffs. We're more balanced and therefore CLOSER to the playoffs. Sometimes people tend to get so focused on one player or one position or one aspect of the game that they forget that this is a team game and the sum of the parts doesn't equal the whole.

I'm looking at it from both a macro and micro approach.

Micro approach, we won't replace Dunn's overall production in LF, so that's a net loss.

Can we really get anything as awful as we did from the C position last year? Net gain.

Offensively we should improve in CF, but we've declined defensively, so call it a push leaning to net loss, b/c Willy Taveras is that... well, we know all about Willy Taveras...

I honestly expect Phillips to continue to decline, given the fact he'll try to make himself "the man", press to much and become a bigger hacker than he already is. Net loss.

I don't see Votto OPSing on the good side of .900, which is what he'd have to do to improve from last year, so we'll call him a status quo.

I see EE improving, net gain.

I hope Bruce improves, so optimistic net gain.

... and who the Hell knows what we'll get from the SS position. Gonzo? Kepp? Hairston? I'd hope they'd improve, b/c they certainly can't play any worse defensively, can they, and I shudder to think if they put up similar craptastic numbers offensively as 2008 as a group. So, optimistic net gain I guess?

Macro approach....

LF = big net loss
CF = net loss
RF = small net gain
3B = net gain
SS = net gain
2B = small net loss
1B = push
C = net gain

Add up all the + and -, and offensively we're worse and defensively we're worse.

So... it's not all about Dunn and replacing his production. It's about this roster being a collective assembly of suck, offensively and defensively. If they score more than 725 I'll be surprised, and if they give up less than 800 I'll be surprised.

Kc61
01-22-2009, 09:41 PM
LF improve
CF worse
RF improve
3B who knows?
SS status quo at best, most likely worse
2B maintain
1B I'd hope Votto gets better, but has he really improved?
C Hernandez isn't an improvement, and since he'll get the majority of PT, he negates the improvement Hanigan might be...

... k, ya got me... LF and RF got better while others got worse...

How did shortsop get (most likely) worse?

RedsManRick
01-22-2009, 09:45 PM
Sure, who needs Hairston's .326 when you can have Gomes' .182 with worse defense? Reds can easily spare that .144 points of batting average, who needs it.

Well, it doesn't matter, Hairston will get his at bats, but it's a little premature to trash the guy. He may have been the best player on the team much of last year.

Yes, yes, I've read the predictions of Hairston's demise as a player next year. We'll see. I'm kind of glad he'll be around, as unfashionable that viewpoint may be around here.

Unfortunately (or luckily depending on how you look at it), last year's stats don't count in 2009. It's about what the guy does in 2009, and Gomes is much more likely to be productive than Hairston in the way it appears he's going to be used.

_Sir_Charles_
01-22-2009, 09:46 PM
LF improve
CF worse
RF improve
3B who knows?
SS status quo at best, most likely worse
2B maintain
1B I'd hope Votto gets better, but has he really improved?
C Hernandez isn't an improvement, and since he'll get the majority of PT, he negates the improvement Hanigan might be...

... k, ya got me... LF and RF got better while others got worse...

SS most likely worse? How so? Has anyone seen a negative Gonzo injury update? From everything that I've seen, he's progressing VERY well. Given his age and his injury, sure, I can see him being worse than what he once was...but isn't that better still than Kepp defensively? And if not...we've still got Kepp & Hairston...and they're not going to be WORSE, that'll be a split.

As for Hernandez, I need to see him before I can make a call on that. But I just can't see him being much worse defensively than that 3-headed monstrosity from last year. At worst I see that as being a wash and his bat making up for it. Hanigan, however, is quite good behind the dish and I think he'll get a good portion of the time behind there too. Just because Hernandez got a good contract doesn't mean he'll automatically get all the starts. Hanigan's earned some time back there too and I think he'll get it.

The only spot I see any regression defensively is in center. And even there, I don't see a HUGE regression. Because while there is some there obviously, the difference is made up by the improvement in RF & LF. Overall I see a much better defensive team...and I don't even think it's close (although I'd still like to see it improved even more...especially at SS).

Falls City Beer
01-22-2009, 09:46 PM
How did shortsop get (most likely) worse?

Or catcher and CF for that matter? Is this just defense or both?

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:52 PM
I have no idea how healthy Hairston will be, neither does anyone else. But on this team, as it currently stands, I'm hopeful Hairston gets a lot of at bats because he showed me last year a performance level that can't reasonably be expected from many of these guys.

It's fashionable to trash Hairston around here, but he finally put it together last year by being more selective at the plate. I don't see why he necessarily has to revert to earlier bad years.

Put it together last year?

He played in 80 games, whoopie. Since 2003, Jerry Hairston has been the textbook definition of not durable. He also hasn't batted above .300 since 2004.

Jerry Hairston's had exactly 1367 good AB out of his career AB of 2795. 49%, awesome...

2006 and 2007, Jerry Hairston was Juan Castro. I guess I'm just a little hesitant to have high hopes for Jerry Hairston, especially when he averages 89 G a season, and has only hit for an AVG better than .300 twice in those 10 years.

Combine the fact that he's a career .700 OPS guy batting .260, and plays at best below average D at any of his positions then sure, I'm giddy for the 2009 Reds relying on Jerry Hairston.

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:57 PM
How did shortsop get (most likely) worse?

Hairston won't put up his 2008 numbers offensively. He sucks defensively.

Gonzo didn't play in 2008, and his health still remains a question. So, when you look at the career OPS of .694 (.295 OBP, sexy) and the fact that he's older, gimpy and most likely worse defensively, that's not pointing as a gain in any department.

Kepp. In 2009 are we getting the 2007 version (man I hope so) or the 2008 version (wow I really don't hope so). Defensively he's the worst of the 3, so he needs his 2007 bat in order to make any positive contributions.

So, Hairston won't put up the same 2008 numbers, Gonzo won't put up his 2007 numbers, and even if Kepp puts up his 2007 numbers it won't be enough to offset Hairston and Gonzo.

Hence, most likely worse.

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 09:59 PM
Or catcher and CF for that matter? Is this just defense or both?

I factored both offense and defense.

Falls City Beer
01-22-2009, 10:01 PM
I factored both offense and defense.

Even so, I still don't see C being worse. Or CF for that matter; probably pretty similar in CF.

Kc61
01-22-2009, 10:02 PM
Put it together last year?

He played in 80 games, whoopie. Since 2003, Jerry Hairston has been the textbook definition of not durable. He also hasn't batted above .300 since 2004.

Jerry Hairston's had exactly 1367 good AB out of his career AB of 2795. 49%, awesome...

2006 and 2007, Jerry Hairston was Juan Castro. I guess I'm just a little hesitant to have high hopes for Jerry Hairston, especially when he averages 89 G a season, and has only hit for an AVG better than .300 twice in those 10 years.

Combine the fact that he's a career .700 OPS guy batting .260, and plays at best below average D at any of his positions then sure, I'm giddy for the 2009 Reds relying on Jerry Hairston.


Don't see much mention of Hairston's .321 BA or .871 OPS for 2008. You choose to ignore or write off his last year. I don't.

pahster
01-22-2009, 10:06 PM
Don't see much mention of Hairston's .321 BA or .871 OPS for 2008. You choose to ignore or write off his last year. I don't.

Here are Hairston's career numbers (which, of course, include last year): .260/.330/.370/OPS +85

_Sir_Charles_
01-22-2009, 10:12 PM
And don't those career numbers include several seasons in which he was playing injured?

Now I don't expect to see Hairston put up numbers equal to or better than last season...but I also don't expect him to plummet down to his "career" averages. Things did seem to come together for him last season, be it health or confidence or changes to his approach...whatever. But he was considerably better. I'd prefer to remain optimistic until I see a reason to dump on the guy.

Kc61
01-22-2009, 10:14 PM
Here are Hairston's career numbers (which, of course, include last year): .260/.330/.370/OPS +85


But of course we don't know if Hairston will hit like his lifetime numbers or like his most current numbers. Last year he played at GABP, in the NL, for the Reds. He never played in that specific setting before. He now is a more experienced hitter than before.

Having watched Hairston last year I believe he is a much better hitter than his lifetime numbers reflect. I don't expect an .871 OPS but I do expect a performance much better than the career stats.

It's odd that folks will take the leap to assume that Johnny Gomes, who hit .182 last year, will have a good season yet Hairston is viewed by some as a slacker. I liked what I saw with JH last year and believe he can continue to be productive.

OUReds
01-22-2009, 10:16 PM
SS most likely worse? How so? Has anyone seen a negative Gonzo injury update? From everything that I've seen, he's progressing VERY well. Given his age and his injury, sure, I can see him being worse than what he once was...but isn't that better still than Kepp defensively?

From Castellini today....

CTR: Are you happy with the club that's been put together for this season?

BC: Yes. The shortstop is a big question mark, but Jerry (Hairston Jr.) is here to play shortstop if Alex (Gonzalez) isn't ready. This is a very delicate problem he's got, this orthopedic thing in his knee. It's difficult to ascertain or predict if he's going to play or not. He's trying hard, there's no lack of effort or desire.

Doesn't sound good to me.

_Sir_Charles_
01-22-2009, 10:24 PM
Well, I'll lean towards Jocketty's and the trainer's assessment of Gonzo rather than the owners. They're both much more positive about his progress.

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 10:26 PM
Even so, I still don't see C being worse. Or CF for that matter; probably pretty similar in CF.

Like I said, I don't see Hernandez being an improvement from the 3-headed monster of 2008.

Should Hanigan be the everyday guy, then C would be an improved position, but we didn't trade for Hernandez for him to Hanigan's backup....

In CF, we're worse defensively. Taveras will be better offensively than Patterson was in 2008 (although that's not saying much). I just think that little of Willy Taveras compared to Corey Patterson's offensive adventure that was 2008...

jojo
01-22-2009, 10:29 PM
But of course we don't know if Hairston will hit like his lifetime numbers or like his most current numbers. Last year he played at GABP, in the NL, for the Reds. He never played in that specific setting before. He now is a more experienced hitter than before.

It's not like he's unprojectable because he became a Red.


It's odd that folks will take the leap to assume that Johnny Gomes, who hit .182 last year, will have a good season yet Hairston is viewed by some as a slacker.

"Last year" was roughly 200 PA's when talking about those two. It's a mistake to take anything truly meaningful from their "last year" without also taking it with a huge grain of salt.

Highlifeman21
01-22-2009, 10:30 PM
Don't see much mention of Hairston's .321 BA or .871 OPS for 2008. You choose to ignore or write off his last year. I don't.

261 AB last year.

Only the 2nd season he's ever batted above .300.

And when someone OPSs .871 to bring their career OPS to .700, that's the exception to the rule.

It's not that I'm choosing to ignore his 2008, or write it off. I'm just saying that it was 2008 and he won't put up the same numbers in 2009, and it won't even be close.

If he plays more than 80 G and OPSs better than .750 then I'll be impressed.

jesusfan
01-22-2009, 10:41 PM
So what do we have if the season started tomorrow, which it really does considering we're finished with player pick-ups...

VS RHP (Only change when facing LHP would be substituting Gomes for Dickerson, assuming he doesn't fall off the earth in the spring. I think with Gomes, Hernandez, Edwin and BP we'll actually see an improvement against LHP this year.. I don't know, I am going to be an optimist for now on, at least until they start losing. I do this every year and they set me up for disappointment, watch us start out 10 games over .500 and slowly go downhill dragging me with them every step of the way... :(

1. Willy Taveras- CF
2. Jerry Hairston Jr- SS
3. Joey Votto- 1st
4. Edwin Encarnacion- 3rd (even though I guarantee Dusty hits Phillips 4th)
5. Jay Bruce- RF
6. Brandon Phillips- 2nd
7. Chris Dickerson- LF
8. Ramon Hernandez- C
9. Aaron Harang- P

Rotation is set with Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, Owings/Bailey/?

Bullpen is average to good with only 1 maybe 2 spots up for grabs...

Pitching will be our strong point and from the looks of it we'll run the bases much better, but will it be enough to overcome the lack of power. I will say this, let's consider Bruce and Votto are who we think they are next year and have very solid years. I say it comes down to BPhil and Edwin, if they have solid offensive seasons we can definitely be in it, but if they don't I can't see being anywhere close to .500.

I will guarantee one thing: We will be in the top 5 in stolen bases... Looking for positives! :thumbup:

SteelSD
01-22-2009, 10:58 PM
But of course we don't know if Hairston will hit like his lifetime numbers or like his most current numbers. Last year he played at GABP, in the NL, for the Reds. He never played in that specific setting before. He now is a more experienced hitter than before.

Having watched Hairston last year I believe he is a much better hitter than his lifetime numbers reflect. I don't expect an .871 OPS but I do expect a performance much better than the career stats.

It's odd that folks will take the leap to assume that Johnny Gomes, who hit .182 last year, will have a good season yet Hairston is viewed by some as a slacker. I liked what I saw with JH last year and believe he can continue to be productive.

Jerry Hairston produced the following splits:

Home: .410 BA/.471 OBP/.590 SLG (.443 BABIP)
Road: .252 BA/.307 OBP/.396 SLG (.278 BABIP)

Now, exactly how is he going to get anywhere near replicating or even approaching those incredible GAB statistics? He can't. There's no possible way.

RedsManRick
01-22-2009, 11:02 PM
Don't see much mention of Hairston's .321 BA or .871 OPS for 2008. You choose to ignore or write off his last year. I don't.

You don't have to ignore his 2008 in any way, shape, or form to believe that his 2009 is likely to be quite worse. All you have to do is look at the components that drove Hairston's performance. He didn't walk more in 2008. He didn't strike out less. He didn't make more contact. He just hit a crapload of line drives. In fact, his 27.5 LD% was 2nd in baseball among batters with 250+ PA.

So, one of two things happened. Either Hairston suddenly became one of the best line drive hitters in baseball after being average at doing so through the first 2800 PA of his career. Or, in less than a half season's worth of at bats, Hairston was "hot", "lucky", etc -- experiencing results that were much better than his true talent suggests were sustainable. And we know without a doubt that a 27.5 LD% simply isn't sustainable.

Who else hit a lot line drives last year in 250+ PA? The top 5 in LD%:
1) Omar Infante: 30.1 LD% in 317 PA, career 18.3% in 2,080 PA
2) Hairston: 27.5 LD% in 297 PA, career 22.8% in 3,189 PA
3) Jamey Carroll: 27.3 LD% in 402 PA, career 24.4 LD% in 2,157 PA
4) Ramon Vazquez: 27.3 LD% in 347 PA, 24.3 LD% in 1,988 PA
5) Mark Loretta: 27.2 LD% in 297 PA, 26.3 LD% in 6,354 PA

Simply putting up a great LD% in a half season doesn't do very much at all to tell us whether Hairston is Omar Infante or Mark Loretta. But in fact, 19 guys with 250+ PA had LD% over 25.0%. Some of them are legitimate excellent LD hitters like Carroll, Loretta, and Michael Young. Others, not so much. But when you raise the PA threshold to 500 and it drops to 4. That is variance (aka small sample size) in action. When the plate appearances pile up, it's a rare player who can sustain that level of performance.

Is it possible Hairston puts up an .850 OPS again? Sure, it's possible. At age 32, Hairston might have discovered a way to hit more line drives without changing anything else about his game. But it's not bloody likely. Nothing Hariston did last year suggests an actual change in ability to hit. He just got really good results in a half season's worth of at bats. We know from his career's worth of work and from his component performances what his talent level is. And as we look forward to 2009, that talent level drives his projection -- not the results from his last 300 PA.

RedsManRick
01-22-2009, 11:09 PM
So what do we have if the season started tomorrow, which it really does considering we're finished with player pick-ups...

Sadly, I have very little reason to believe Dusty will "demote" Phillips out of the cleanup spot in the lineup. Dusty would rather be a worse team than risk offending one of his marquee players. Sadly, I think the only way Phillips leaves the clean up spot is to move up in the lineup.

My guess for the "opening day" lineups with Hairston at SS is:

vR
Taveras
Hairston
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Encarnacion
Dickerson
Hernandez

vL
Taveras
Hairston
Phillips
Votto
Gomes
Bruce
Encarnacion
Hernandez

Dusty likes him some double leadoff hitter.

red-in-la
01-22-2009, 11:10 PM
Hairston won't put up his 2008 numbers offensively. He sucks defensively.

Gonzo didn't play in 2008, and his health still remains a question. So, when you look at the career OPS of .694 (.295 OBP, sexy) and the fact that he's older, gimpy and most likely worse defensively, that's not pointing as a gain in any department.

Kepp. In 2009 are we getting the 2007 version (man I hope so) or the 2008 version (wow I really don't hope so). Defensively he's the worst of the 3, so he needs his 2007 bat in order to make any positive contributions.

So, Hairston won't put up the same 2008 numbers, Gonzo won't put up his 2007 numbers, and even if Kepp puts up his 2007 numbers it won't be enough to offset Hairston and Gonzo.

Hence, most likely worse.

Based on exactly what?

*BaseClogger*
01-22-2009, 11:12 PM
Based on exactly what?

Logic...

*BaseClogger*
01-22-2009, 11:13 PM
My guess for the "opening day" lineups with Hairston at SS is:

vL
Taveras
Hairston
Phillips
Votto
Gomes
Bruce
Encarnacion
Hernandez

I think Dusty will flip Bruce and Encarnacion against lefties. Otherwise, I think you've got it pegged...

RedsManRick
01-22-2009, 11:15 PM
Based on exactly what?

The best methods of performance projection available.

OnBaseMachine
01-23-2009, 12:20 AM
Like I said, I don't see Hernandez being an improvement from the 3-headed monster of 2008.


Reds catchers posted a .681 OPS in 2008. You don't think Ramon Hernandez (with Hanigan backing him up) will OPS over .681? Hernandez has a career .747 OPS and has posted a sub .700 OPS just twice in his career (2000 & 2002). I'm pretty confident Hernandez will improve the catching position.

dougdirt
01-23-2009, 12:26 AM
Reds catchers posted a .681 OPS in 2008. You don't think Ramon Hernandez (with Hanigan backing him up) will OPS over .681? Hernandez has a career .747 OPS and has posted a sub .700 OPS just twice in his career (2000 & 2002). I'm pretty confident Hernandez will improve the catching position.

Much less moving from a division against GREAT pitching to the NL Central and GABP.

CougarQuest
01-23-2009, 02:33 AM
The best methods of performance projection available.
Just curious

What did 'the best methods of performance projections available' say last year at this time about Hairston? Did they hit the nail on the head at the end of the year, under predict him, over predict him?

What exactly is the percentage rate of 'the best methods of performance projections available' of getting every player in MLB absolutely correct every year? 90%, 80%, 70%, .... 20%, 10%, 0.10%? 20% of the players they'll get 70% right? 50% of the players they'll get 40% right? Not saying that this sytem is not right on the money, just want to know how perfect or imperfect this system is if we're going to base all of our determination to cut a guys legs out from under him after having a good year and sing the praises of a guy who had a bad year.

If the player does better or worse than the best methods of performance projections available, he's not lucky or unlucky, the projection system is just wrong. Those are just words used to excuse the projection system failures.

Ltlabner
01-23-2009, 02:59 AM
The improvement of our other players will replace some more.

It's a logical trap to assume all players will improve from year to year, and improve at linear rates.

Especially when said players are young.

Patrick Bateman
01-23-2009, 04:05 AM
Reds catchers posted a .681 OPS in 2008. You don't think Ramon Hernandez (with Hanigan backing him up) will OPS over .681? Hernandez has a career .747 OPS and has posted a sub .700 OPS just twice in his career (2000 & 2002). I'm pretty confident Hernandez will improve the catching position.

I was going to post something similar. God, we had Paul Bako behind the plate for a lot of at-bats. I don't see any conceivable way that Hanigan/Hernandez could hit that bad for such a long period of time. The benchmark is too low for this not to be a position of improvement.

Mario-Rijo
01-23-2009, 04:48 AM
I agree with the idea Hairston will not do what he did last year. The guy had a .443 BABIP enuff said and he's never come close to the #'s he put up in '08. But if we are gonna be fair his '06 and '07 are documented as years he played with an injury and those #'s are also nowhere near his career norms.

A reasonable line to expect for him based on his career is probably 350-400 PA's of about .280/.340/.380/.720. Maybe a hair optimistic, maybe even a smidge pessimistic. But I am giving him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to how his game plays in GABP and his experience factor.

Oh and on Taveras vs. last years CF defense. Patterson is better but I would have to doubt any statistic that says Patterson is leaps and bounds better. But beyond that Patterson started what 80+ games (although a late inning replacement in plenty more)? The rest was manned mainly by Bruce/Hairston and so few by Dickerson that it doesn't mean much. I'd wager Patterson-Taveras is closer than Hairston/Bruce-Taveras. I'd say at worst it's a push defensively.

jojo
01-23-2009, 07:55 AM
Just curious

What did 'the best methods of performance projections available' say last year at this time about Hairston? Did they hit the nail on the head at the end of the year, under predict him, over predict him?

What exactly is the percentage rate of 'the best methods of performance projections available' of getting every player in MLB absolutely correct every year? 90%, 80%, 70%, .... 20%, 10%, 0.10%? 20% of the players they'll get 70% right? 50% of the players they'll get 40% right? Not saying that this sytem is not right on the money, just want to know how perfect or imperfect this system is if we're going to base all of our determination to cut a guys legs out from under him after having a good year and sing the praises of a guy who had a bad year.

If the player does better or worse than the best methods of performance projections available, he's not lucky or unlucky, the projection system is just wrong. Those are just words used to excuse the projection system failures.

Projection systems estimate true talent levels. The longer a player is a professional the better they capture a player. Hairston is no dataless spring chicken.

What he was last year was a guy who simply didn't get enough PAs to allow randomness to be managed. For instance, projections systems think Hairston is a .320 wOBA bat. For 200 PAs, there is an expected randomness of .033 in wOBA (i.e 68% of players with a true talent of .320 will have a wOBA within .287-.353 while 95% of players with a true talent of .320 will have a wOBA within .254-.386). That's a huge spread.

When also considering that there are factors in Hairston's peripherals that suggest his counting stats were boosted by luck, one might begin to appreciate how trying to make any meaningful conclusion about Hairston's '08 is problematic.

He may have become a different player-it's certainly possible. There is a very compelling argument that he hasn't though IMHO.

I think expecting Hairston to be an above average player over significant amounts of playing time in '09 (or eve just an average one really) requires hoping for some lucky randomness. But hey, that's why they play the games.

hebroncougar
01-23-2009, 08:04 AM
Hairston as SS is like eating a bowl of Chili with a fork. Ugly.

lollipopcurve
01-23-2009, 09:21 AM
Nothing Hariston did last year suggests an actual change in ability to hit.

How would you know this?

Hoosier Red
01-23-2009, 09:25 AM
Hairston as SS is like eating a bowl of Chili with a fork. Ugly.

Jeff Keppinger was the opening day SS last year. Uglier.

I think it will definately be interesting to see how much the black holes of awfulness affected the Reds last year.

SS defense- Keppinger to Hairston- awful range to just plain bad range? Anyone have RF numbers for them?

C-Bako/Ross - 680 OPS to Hernandez/Hanigan 700+ OPS.

CF- Patterson - Taveras: Meh, wash

lollipopcurve
01-23-2009, 09:37 AM
SS defense- Keppinger to Hairston- awful range to just plain bad range? Anyone have RF numbers for them?

Don't have the RFs, but I can say Hairston's arm is pretty weak for a SS. If he's there most of the time, it's going to be another year of cringing SS defense, for sure.

I'm hoping Valaika gets a look at SS at some point in 09.

Jpup
01-23-2009, 09:38 AM
I still expect Keppinger to be the shortstop in '09. His bat will find him a spot over Hairston.

REDREAD
01-23-2009, 10:32 AM
LF improve
CF worse
RF improve
3B who knows?
SS status quo at best, most likely worse
2B maintain
1B I'd hope Votto gets better, but has he really improved?
C Hernandez isn't an improvement, and since he'll get the majority of PT, he negates the improvement Hanigan might be...

... k, ya got me... LF and RF got better while others got worse...

I disagree here. Tavaras will be better than Patterson. Herndadez will be better than Bako. Those are net gains.
I agree that barring another acquision, we will probably score fewer runs next year, but we have improved C and CF.

_Sir_Charles_
01-23-2009, 01:21 PM
It's not that I'm choosing to ignore his 2008, or write it off. I'm just saying that it was 2008 and he won't put up the same numbers in 2009, and it won't even be close.

And that's just another assumption. There's nothing to say that he won't IMPROVE on his 2008 numbers. Was there any indication last season that it was a fluke? Was it just a short stretch of good play and then he tailed off? No, he was flat out solid all season long, before and after his injury. I'd prefer to think that an established player finally put things together after several years plagued by an undiagnosed broken rib. But that's just me. :O)

Patrick Bateman
01-23-2009, 02:07 PM
And that's just another assumption. There's nothing to say that he won't IMPROVE on his 2008 numbers. Was there any indication last season that it was a fluke? Was it just a short stretch of good play and then he tailed off? No, he was flat out solid all season long, before and after his injury. I'd prefer to think that an established player finally put things together after several years plagued by an undiagnosed broken rib. But that's just me. :O)

Ummmmmm yes? Otherwise there wouldn't be so many disbelievers. Nobody short of Tony Gwynn should be expected to repeat the .361 BAPIP Hairston put up last season. The last time Hairston did something like that even remotely similar (2004 with the O's: .775 OPS, .332 BAPIP), he followed up the season with his usual line: .704 OPS, .288 BAPIP.

I'm not going to guarantee anything, as there is always a level of variance that makes any guarantee somewhat impossible to bank on, but I get the feeling that similar questions were posed in 2004 by Oriole fans, and he went sour pretty quickly. For the sake of the argument, I prefer to live in the universe of probability. I'll recognize the fact that he "could" repeat his 2008 numbers, but at the same time I'm going to recognize that there's no compelling evidence to suggest that I should expect a performance near that level of production.

Is he going to neccessary plummet to his normal levels? No, as there were a few things in his peripherals that suggest that he has made some level of improvement, but anything close to repeating his 2008 numbers would come as a surprise based on his past history, and based on that he did back into some fortunate luck last year. I see him posting somewhere around a .740-.750 OPS,and with his versatility, that would make him a nice bench option and potential platoonmate. Asking for anything else like the Reds are expected to do, and he's likely to dissapoint.

Highlifeman21
01-23-2009, 02:52 PM
And that's just another assumption. There's nothing to say that he won't IMPROVE on his 2008 numbers. Was there any indication last season that it was a fluke? Was it just a short stretch of good play and then he tailed off? No, he was flat out solid all season long, before and after his injury. I'd prefer to think that an established player finally put things together after several years plagued by an undiagnosed broken rib. But that's just me. :O)

So it took this established player 10 years to finally put it together?

I just don't buy it...


I know the guy has been injured for what seems like the last 4+ years, but it's just too big of a stretch to say that he found "it", ya know?

OnBaseMachine
01-23-2009, 03:22 PM
Gomes eyes roster spot with Reds
Slugger could platoon or compete for job in left field

By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

CINCINNATI --- Newest Reds player Jonny Gomes is ready to do what it takes for his new team and make the roster out of Spring Training.

"I want to offer everything and say no to nothing," said Gomes, the free-agent outfielder who signed a Minor League contract with Cincinnati on Monday.

At the moment, a few possibilities appear to be on the table for Gomes. The Reds have a vacancy in left field, and Gomes will join Jerry Hairston Jr., Chris Dickerson, Norris Hopper and Laynce Nix as suitors for the spot.

"He's a guy we thought could compete for our bench and compete for the spot in left field, either every day or a platoon spot," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "This is a guy I've followed over his career and always liked him a lot. He had an off year last year, but if he turns it around, in our ballpark, he has a chance to hit some home runs."

Non-tendered by the Rays after a rough 2008 season where he batted .182 with eight homers and 21 RBIs in 77 games, Gomes could become quite a bargain should he have a rebound season in Cincinnati.

Still just 28 years old, Gomes can earn a base salary of $600,000 if he makes the Reds 25-man roster and another $200,000 in incentives. Cincinnati has had some good fortune with players it has taken fliers on in recent seasons. Two years ago, Josh Hamilton went from a suspended drug user to a Rule 5 pick who had a breakout rookie season. In 2008, Hairston signed a Minor League deal with the Reds worth $500,000 during Spring Training and emerged as a key contributor and was re-signed as a free agent for one year at $2 million.

"I've spoken to Jonny and some people in Tampa about him," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "The guy has some serious pop. We're going to give him an opportunity to make the club first. I explained to him that it could be a platoon situation here. We went from very few outfielders to a lot of quality outfielders in a short period of time. We need a right-handed bat."

Last season with the Rays, Gomes was squeezed out of his starting outfield spot and became a role player who yielded poor results. By August, he was sent down to Triple-A and, after a September call up, was left off of Tampa Bay's postseason roster all the way through the World Series.

"I don't think my game went down," Gomes said on Thursday afternoon. "I don't need to do anything different. It was a new regime in Tampa that made changes. It worked out great for them but I wasn't in the plans."

Gomes hasn't yet been able to match an overall solid 2005 rookie season for Tampa Bay when he batted .282 with 21 home runs and 54 RBIs in 101 games. He had 20 homers and 59 RBIs in 2006, but a .216 average. He batted .244 with 17 homers in 2007.

Over his career, Gomes has a .329 on-base percentage and he's struck out almost three times more than he's walked (413 to 151). Reports out of Tampa Bay indicate that his non-fundamental swing requires him to play a lot to stay in a groove, and Gomes will admit that he can be streaky.

"I'm a high-maintenance player that has a lot of ups and downs," Gomes said. "I need to gradually grow and cut out all the peaks and valleys. When I have a manager that's patient with me, I'll have some good numbers in the end.

"When I roll into camp, I'd love to say now that my numbers will be .280 with 30 homers and 25 steals. I can't promise that, but I will respect the game and hustle. That's what you'll get every day."

In a Rays organization that featured elite outfielders like Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton, Gomes was not known for defensive prowess, but says can play all three outfield positions. He's only played the corner spots in the Majors.

"I told him he has to work hard, come to camp in great shape, work on his footwork and improve his defensive skills," Baker said.

Gomes resides in Scottsdale, Ariz., during the offseason and works out at the same athletic performance facility as Hairston and Dickerson -- two players he could end up sharing left field playing time.

While hoping to get at least 450 at-bats this season, Gomes is prepared to platoon.

"I will keep my game in shape -- my arm, my base running and my hitting -- so that when my number is called, I will be ready," Gomes said.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090123&content_id=3766758&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

BuckeyeRedleg
01-23-2009, 03:29 PM
"He's a guy we thought could compete for our bench and compete for the spot in left field, either every day or a platoon spot," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "This is a guy I've followed over his career and always liked him a lot. He had an off year last year, but if he turns it around, in our ballpark, he has a chance to hit some home runs."

But I thought HR's were evil.

RedsManRick
01-23-2009, 03:59 PM
But I thought HR's were evil.

Only when they're certain. When they might happen, they're a good thing.

SteelSD
01-23-2009, 04:03 PM
Only when they're certain. When they might happen, they're a good thing.

Y'know, I've noticed that. When the ball is in the air, everyone stands up. But then after it's been over the fence for a little bit, everyone sits down again.

Weird...

remdog
01-23-2009, 09:25 PM
Dusty Baker said: "We went from very few outfielders to a lot of quality outfielders in a short period of time."

Dusty! Pay attention here! You've got Willie (Freakin) Tavaras in CF! You're planning on a LF platoon of a guy that has about 100 AB's in the bigs and a guy that hit .182 last year. Your backups are Jerry Hairston Jr. who just had a 'career year' and Norris Hopper for God's sake. Behind that hideous group you have Lance Nix who will be lucky to get a full-time gig in L'ville. Show me the quality, please!!!

I'll be up in Sacramento in couple of weeks. Maybe we could have a a beer (I'll buy) and you can explaine to me how this mish-mash of mediocrity equals quality.

Rem

flyer85
01-23-2009, 09:47 PM
whatever it takes to keep Willy in there

AmarilloRed
01-24-2009, 10:19 PM
You can now add Hairston to the LF mix. I imagine the 3 of them will compete for playing time in spring training.

Blitz Dorsey
01-24-2009, 10:22 PM
You can now add Hairston to the LF mix. I imagine the 3 of them will compete for playing time in spring training.

No question. And Hairston will get starts all over the place. SS if/when things aren't working out for Gonzalez, LF at times, CF, RF when Bruce needs a rest, 2B when Phillips needs a rest. If Hairston can stay healthy (big if I know) he can be a big asset for this team.

marcshoe
01-24-2009, 10:26 PM
No question. And Hairston will get starts all over the place. SS if/when things aren't working out for Gonzalez, LF at times, CF, RF when Bruce needs a rest, 2B when Phillips needs a rest. If Hairston can stay healthy (big if I know) he can be a big asset for this team.

I'd rather see him used that way than plugged in as a starter in one position, not the least because I'm skeptical that he can repeat last year's numbers. Used as a plug-in player, however, I don't have a problem with him. If he plays well, he'll get plenty of playing time. If he doesn't, you're not depending on him, so it doesn't hurt you as much. You can go with other options.

Kc61
01-26-2009, 11:20 AM
If Dickerson is the lefty platoon in left field, then the team has virtually no left handed hitter on the bench. I guess they could use Wilkin Castillo or Laynce Nix, but the lefty pinch hitter can be a pretty key spot. Righty reliever, late innings, etc.

The Reds' moves this off-season leave them with three lefty hitting position players on the likely 25-man roster -- Bruce, Votto, and Dickerson. I think that's it.

Valentin is gone, ok, but who's the replacement lefty pinch hitter?

wheels
01-26-2009, 11:24 AM
If Dickerson is the lefty platoon in left field, then the team has virtually no left handed hitter on the bench. I guess they could use Wilkin Castillo or Laynce Nix, but the lefty pinch hitter can be a pretty key spot. Righty reliever, late innings, etc.

The Reds' moves this off-season leave them with three lefty hitting position players on the likely 25-man roster -- Bruce, Votto, and Dickerson. I think that's it.

Valentin is gone, ok, but who's the replacement lefty pinch hitter?


There isn't one.

TRF
01-26-2009, 11:40 AM
This FO is still so worried about having a LH hitter in the lineup not realizing the projected starting 8 only has 2.

Screwball
01-26-2009, 12:56 PM
This FO is still so worried about having a LH hitter in the lineup not realizing the projected starting 8 only has 2.

I assume you meant RH hitter. And seeing as how about 2/3 of their games will be spent facing a RH starter, you'd think they would've added a big lefty bat for LF (a Bobby Abreu would've been sweet). But hey, anything to get past that Griffey/Dunn era...

TRF
01-26-2009, 01:08 PM
I assume you meant RH hitter. And seeing as how about 2/3 of their games will be spent facing a RH starter, you'd think they would've added a big lefty bat for LF (a Bobby Abreu would've been sweet). But hey, anything to get past that Griffey/Dunn era...

No, I worded it right, maybe. They seem afraid to add a LH bat thinking they need this RH bopper. the truth is, not so much.

Screwball
01-26-2009, 01:13 PM
No, I worded it right, maybe. They seem afraid to add a LH bat thinking they need this RH bopper. the truth is, not so much.

Ah I got it now. I thought by "having" you meant "adding".

But yeah, I agree. Even with Dunn and Griffey last year the Reds did much better against LHP than RHP. All this constant talk about needing to add a run-producing RH bat (while completely ignoring anybody swinging from the left side) made me wanna :bang: until the cows came home. I mean surely there was somebody in the organization who pointed out that simple fact to those making the decisions. Or is that asking too much?

Kc61
01-26-2009, 01:29 PM
Ah I got it now. I thought by "having" you meant "adding".

But yeah, I agree. Even with Dunn and Griffey last year the Reds did much better against LHP than RHP. All this constant talk about needing to add a run-producing RH bat (while completely ignoring anybody swinging from the left side) made me wanna :bang: until the cows came home. I mean surely there was somebody in the organization who pointed out that simple fact to those making the decisions. Or is that asking too much?

The need last year was for a righty bat. But with Dunn, Griffey, Valentin, Patterson, Bako all gone and with Hernandez, Taveras, Gomes in, with Gonzalez perhaps back, the team has now shifted to the righty side. Add in Owings' righty bat, and it's a dramatic shift.

If they want to give Dickerson a shot playing most of the games in left field, fine, but that leaves an all righty bench. As you say, presumably somebody has noticed this.

We'll see, Walt has said they need to focus on the bench, I assume somebody will realize that it's the left side that's missing.

Screwball
01-26-2009, 01:43 PM
The need last year was for a righty bat.

Close. The need last year was for a good bat, not just a righty bat. Even with all the LHHers you named, the Reds still performed better (OPS-wise and W/L-wise) against LHP than they did RHP. So what do they do in the offseason? Actively make the lineup RH dominant.

And the biggest problem is they aren't even good RHHers. Pat Burrel was at a huge discount and they passed. They didn't quite land Rocco Baldelli. Matt Holliday was never really pursued (probably with good reason). The Dye talks never materialized. Instead we got Taveras, a catcher they're hoping bounces back, and a LF that we can reasonably expect to hurt LHP, but swings a broomstick against RHP. It's just very disappointing considering my high hopes with Jocketty at the helm.

nate
01-26-2009, 02:19 PM
As Screwball said, the Reds just need good bats. Let's not worry about lefty/righty matchups until half the pitchers in the league throw southpaw.

Kc61
01-26-2009, 02:26 PM
Close. The need last year was for a good bat, not just a righty bat. Even with all the LHHers you named, the Reds still performed better (OPS-wise and W/L-wise) against LHP than they did RHP. So what do they do in the offseason? Actively make the lineup RH dominant.

.

I've read this line of argument dozens of times on RedsZone. It doesn't wash. The Reds need has been for righty bats, for years. The record last year against lefty hurlers isn't the key point.

The key point is the RH hitters' performance against righty pitchers. Look at Phillips, Keppinger and EE's numbers against righty pitching last year. Over 1,000 at bats combined. sub-.700 OPS for Phillips, even lower for Kepp. EE had a higher OPS but a .235 BA against righties.

Teams face righty pitchers a lot. Your right handed bats have to do reasonably well against righties, while murdering lefties. The Reds need righty hitters who can accomplish this.

Right now, of course, the need is for lefties because the Reds have overloaded the team with righty hitters recently. But the question is whether these righty hitters will do well against both kinds of pitching or whether they are basically platooners who do their damage against lefties.

Will M
01-26-2009, 03:24 PM
I believe Walt was holding out trying to get a bat like Dye or Abreu at a cheaper price. This would have pushed Dickerson into the CF mix or to 4th OF status. Then Bob C screwed him (and us) by cutting the payroll by $8M. This leaves us with a weak LF/CF and no LH bat on the bench.
I don't blame Walt for this. I blame Bob C.

BRM
01-26-2009, 03:39 PM
Dusty Baker said: "We went from very few outfielders to a lot of quality outfielders in a short period of time."

Dusty! Pay attention here! You've got Willie (Freakin) Tavaras in CF! You're planning on a LF platoon of a guy that has about 100 AB's in the bigs and a guy that hit .182 last year. Your backups are Jerry Hairston Jr. who just had a 'career year' and Norris Hopper for God's sake. Behind that hideous group you have Lance Nix who will be lucky to get a full-time gig in L'ville. Show me the quality, please!!!

I'll be up in Sacramento in couple of weeks. Maybe we could have a a beer (I'll buy) and you can explaine to me how this mish-mash of mediocrity equals quality.

Rem

I got a chuckle out of that too Rem. A lot of quality outfielders? That's rich.

nate
01-26-2009, 04:09 PM
I've read this line of argument dozens of times on RedsZone. It doesn't wash. The Reds need has been for righty bats, for years. The record last year against lefty hurlers isn't the key point.

The need for better hitters, regardless of handedness > The need for hitters who bat from a particular side of the plate.

There's no _need_ for an "X"-handed batter that isn't trumped by the need for better hitters.

Kc61
01-26-2009, 04:39 PM
The need for better hitters, regardless of handedness > The need for hitters who bat from a particular side of the plate.

There's no _need_ for an "X"-handed batter that isn't trumped by the need for better hitters.

A team needs some balance. Particularly among its less outstanding hitters.

Top hitters can usually hit against all pitching.

But more average hitters often are proficient against opposite handed pitchers and weaker against same handed pitchers.

A GM should not ignore this saying "I'll just get some good hitters."

On the Reds last year there were a few good ballplayers who hit much better against opposite handed pitchers and weren't nearly as productive against same handed pitchers. This can't just be ignored. In making up the roster, or the lineup, a manager needs to have other guys (often hitting from the other side) to compensate. This requires balance on the team's roster.

Yes, if all your hitters are very high caliber it doesn't make much difference. But for most ballplayers it absolutely does.

jojo
01-26-2009, 05:35 PM
A team needs some balance. Particularly among its less outstanding hitters.

Top hitters can usually hit against all pitching.

But more average hitters often are proficient against opposite handed pitchers and weaker against same handed pitchers.

A GM should not ignore this saying "I'll just get some good hitters."

On the Reds last year there were a few good ballplayers who hit much better against opposite handed pitchers and weren't nearly as productive against same handed pitchers. This can't just be ignored. In making up the roster, or the lineup, a manager needs to have other guys (often hitting from the other side) to compensate. This requires balance on the team's roster.

Yes, if all your hitters are very high caliber it doesn't make much difference. But for most ballplayers it absolutely does.

I took the point to mean, "if the ship is sinking, get on a life boat first then worry about whether it has paddles or not".

nate
01-26-2009, 05:53 PM
A team needs some balance. Particularly among its less outstanding hitters.

Top hitters can usually hit against all pitching.

But more average hitters often are proficient against opposite handed pitchers and weaker against same handed pitchers.

A GM should not ignore this saying "I'll just get some good hitters."

On the Reds last year there were a few good ballplayers who hit much better against opposite handed pitchers and weren't nearly as productive against same handed pitchers. This can't just be ignored. In making up the roster, or the lineup, a manager needs to have other guys (often hitting from the other side) to compensate. This requires balance on the team's roster.

Yes, if all your hitters are very high caliber it doesn't make much difference. But for most ballplayers it absolutely does.

Like Jojo said, getting better hitters > avoiding hitters with extreme split differences > worrying about what side of the plate they hit from.