View Full Version : Expected production from a possible Dickerson/Gomes platoon in left

01-22-2009, 11:22 PM
Now that we know that the Reds won't acquire a big bat for left I thought we could try to get some kind of idea of what production we could expect if we have a Dickerson/Gomes platoon. Granted these are only projections and very rough ones at that but it's a start and I'm sure someone else here could produce a more comprehensive estimation but anyway...

I went with a platoon of Dickerson vs rhp and Gomes vs lefties. Over the last 3 seasons Dunn averaged roughly 442 plate appearances vs rhp and 213 pa vs lhp. Gomes is .266 .369 .510 .879 with 20 doubles, 3 triples, 25 hrs and 9 sb in 414 career pa vs lhp. Add in the switch from a pitchers park to a hitters park as his home and maybe 10-12 doubles, 2 triples, 12-15 hrs, 5 sb, and an .850+ ops for Gomes in his 1/3 of leftfield abs.

For Dickerson I looked at the projections at fangraphs.com and boosted them slightly since he's a little better vs rhp. (Remember these are admittedly very crude projections) In his 2/3 of abs (442 pa est.) in leftfield I have 24-28 doubles, 6 triples, 16-20 hrs, 20+ sb, and an .830 ops.

Together that adds up to 34-40 doubles, 8 triples, 28-35 hrs, 25 sb and an .840+ ops combined.

Defensively Gomes sucks (more/less than Dunn doesn't matter THAT much to me cuz they both suck) but I think everyone could agree that Dickerson would be a big improvement defensively. Since Dickerson would have most of the time in left it's a net gain defensively. Not fantastic defensively but still better thanks to Dickerson.

Like I've said, I'll admit that these are very crude estimations of what that kind of platoon would produce but, IF we're lucky, it's possible that it wouldn't be that bad. Better combined defensively and not THAT much of a drop offensively.

All Reds fans may want to keep their fingers crossed that Gomes/Dickerson deliver but we could be ok in left. Hopefully.

Captain Hook
01-22-2009, 11:37 PM
I agree.

Not to get carried away but it would be great to see Dickerson/Gomes do well enough that Dickerson ends up in CF when he isn't in LF.

I would actually really like WT as a 4th of 5th OF.

01-23-2009, 10:35 AM
Keppinger against left handed pitching last year had a .360 average, .412 OBP, .489 slugging for .901 OPS. And remember he wasn't entirely healthy either.

I want Keppinger in left field against left handers. We should start a campaign so Dusty sees it!

01-23-2009, 04:11 PM
Yeah Kepp is pretty good vs lhp too. In that scenario Kepp would definitely have a better batting average but, based on his career splits vs lhp, roughly only 5 hrs vs 12-15 for Gomes. Gomes has one big asset, a lot of power. May as well use it. Besides, I like Kepp just like I like Hairston. Imo, they're better as good backups for alot of different positions to take advantage of their versatility. we'll see what happens in spring training with people like Janish and Richar but with Alex Gonzalez out we may need Kepp & Hairston more in the infield anyway.

01-23-2009, 05:44 PM
I am a big fan of platooning. Most of us average fans tend to attach offensive stats to players. It makes more sense to attach stats to positions.

A platoon situation is almost like having a switch hitter at the position. In the event of an opponent's pitching change to the other hand, the other half of the platoon can pinch hit and remain in the game in left field. That pinch hitter will also provide a little pop off the bench as well. Each player gets enough at bats to stay sharp.

In this example, Dickerson also figures as a defensive replacement in the event that the Reds ever have a late inning lead. Thus, the defensive weakness of Gomes would likely be restricted to less than 30% of the team's innings. IMO a Dickerson-Taveras-Bruce outfield would be above average defensively.

Of course, this depends on Gomes rebounding from a bad season and Dickerson maintaining his pace from a good one.

01-23-2009, 07:33 PM
I'd be shocked if there was any production from Gomes. I pray to God that he doesn't make the team. It's a very bad sign if he does.

01-25-2009, 07:02 AM
Let's see. On the 25 man roster you are going to have these outfielders: Bruce, Tavaras, Dickerson, in/of Hairston (since AGon is supposedly healthy). Does that leave room for both Hopper and Gomes? Which has the most to prove to make the roster> IMO I think Hopper is the one who has to prove that he makes the team. I think Gomes has the edge because of his power and his rookie stats. I think he would have to play his way off the team.

Chris Sabowned
01-26-2009, 02:30 PM
Dusty Baker said that this platoon is very likely. I'm not expecting them to replace Adam Dunn's numbers, but could they come close?

Here's stats for the last three years for Gomes and last year for Dickerson.
_____________AB__R__H_2B_3_B_HR_RBI_BB_HBP_SO_SB_C S_AVG_OBP_SLG__OPS
Gomes vs. Left 296 50 78 15 3 19 50 43 8___85 9 5 .264 .368 .527 .895
Chris vs. Right_81_16 25 6 2 6 13 13 1___29 4 1 .309 .411 .654 1.065

Here is their total numbers x4 so that the # of at bats are comparable to Dunn's over the last three years.
Platoon_1508 264 412 84 20 100 252 224 36____456 52 24__.287 .390 .591 .980
Dunn___1600 279 391 74 2 120 298 335 18___523_18__3__.244__.379_.518_.897

Power numbers are down a bit, but not terrible. Average, Sluggng, OPS are all up, maybe it won't be as bad as people think.

(*Edit* Tables are hopefully readable)

01-26-2009, 08:32 PM
I hate platoons....

01-26-2009, 08:38 PM
I hate platoons....

movie was pretty good though.

01-26-2009, 10:02 PM
If Gomes, Dickerson, or Hairston, either one start the season in LF the Reds will be in major trouble for the entire 2009 season. I know Bob and Walt both have said that the Reds are at payroll and no new additions will be made but I think the Reds will add a LF before the season starts. With all the talk of the Reds will be good and make the playoffs from Bob I still think they will pull the trigger. As a fan Im just asking them to field a team that has a shot to make the playoffs. If hey add that one LF, run producer he Reds will be in the race for the playoffs.

Roush's socks
01-27-2009, 12:22 AM
Fans don't like platoons but they are effective. A Gomes/Dickerson platoon might be temporary anyway since Votto or Frazier could be the LF'er eventually.

The Reds didn't want to sign Abreu or another LF'er to a long term contract because they have young players who will be ready over the next 1-2 years.