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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #39 prospect?



camisadelgolf
01-23-2009, 05:37 PM
DO NOT VOTE FOR Jordan Smith! He is prospect #38, and I included him only because I'm an idiot with a short attention span. ALL VOTES FOR Jordan Smith WILL RESULT IN PERMANENT BANS FROM RedsZone*
Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart
Prospect #15 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect #16 - Ramon Ramirez
Prospect #17 - Zach Cozart
Prospect #18 - Matt Maloney
Prospect #19 - Carlos Fisher
Prospect #20 - Chris Heisey
Prospect #21 - Ryan Hanigan
Prospect #22 - Dallas Buck
Prospect #23 - Adam Rosales
Prospect #24 - Alex Buchholz
Prospect #25 - Travis Wood
Prospect #26 - Jeremy Horst
Prospect #27 - Pedro Viola
Prospect #28 - Evan Hildenbrandt
Prospect #29 - Juan Carlos Sulbaran
Prospect #30 - Sam Lecure
Prospect #31 - Robert Manuel
Prospect #32 - Sean Henry
Prospect #33 - Danny Rae Herrera
Prospect #34 - Sean Watson
Prospect #35 - Ismael Guillon
Prospect #36 - Ben Jukich
Prospect #37 - Junior Arias
Prospect #38 - Jordan Smith

* - I have not discussed this with any of the authorities of RedsZone

*BaseClogger*
01-23-2009, 07:03 PM
Jordan Smith is still an option...

camisadelgolf
01-23-2009, 07:41 PM
Jordan Smith is still an option...

Ugh . . . I'm an idiot. This is why OBM usually does this stuff and not me.

*BaseClogger*
01-23-2009, 07:53 PM
Ugh . . . I'm an idiot. This is why OBM usually does this stuff and not me.

It's okay because no one has voted for him... yet. Did you guys hear that? Don't vote again for Jordan Smith! :)

camisadelgolf
01-23-2009, 07:59 PM
It's okay because no one has voted for him... yet. Did you guys hear that? Don't vote again for Jordan Smith! :)

I made an edit. I hope it serves its purpose.

Kc61
01-23-2009, 09:32 PM
I don't count Janish as a prospect at this point.

Craig Tatum will likely be a major league catcher because of defense. He could be a starter if his hitting picks up, but he almost definitely will be a major leaguer. He's next.

OnBaseMachine
01-23-2009, 09:34 PM
I'll go with David Sappelt. He's a toolsy CFer with above average defensive skills in center field.

camisadelgolf
01-23-2009, 10:38 PM
I don't count Janish as a prospect at this point.

Craig Tatum will likely be a major league catcher because of defense. He could be a starter if his hitting picks up, but he almost definitely will be a major leaguer. He's next.

Why don't you count Janish as a prospect?

oneupper
01-23-2009, 11:20 PM
This is nice and all, but how far down the ladder do you guys plan to go?

JayBruceFan
01-24-2009, 12:24 AM
Until we get to the backup LF for the GCL Reds

:)

OnBaseMachine
01-24-2009, 01:07 AM
This is nice and all, but how far down the ladder do you guys plan to go?

I was planning on stopping at 40 but someone else mentioned 50. I've been at the hospital everyday this week and haven't had the time to mess with the polls. I've deferred the rest of them to camisadelgolf so it's up to him on how far to take it.

camisadelgolf
01-24-2009, 06:11 AM
I was planning on stopping at 40 but someone else mentioned 50. I've been at the hospital everyday this week and haven't had the time to mess with the polls. I've deferred the rest of them to camisadelgolf so it's up to him on how far to take it.

I have the energy to go to 100, but the quality of discussion has gone down drastically over the past several prospects. I think 40 is a good place to stop unless a few people disagree.

REDblooded
01-24-2009, 06:30 AM
oops... I voted Smith. I get Janine'd

camisadelgolf
01-24-2009, 07:38 AM
oops... I voted Smith. I get Janine'd

:lol:

Kc61
01-24-2009, 10:01 AM
Why don't you count Janish as a prospect?


I know that technically he is still eligible to be a rookie so we list him as a prospect. Just in my own view Janish, Dickerson, Hanigan, Ramirez, of course Bailey, probably even Castillo played a lot of major league ball last year so I wouldn't include them. Just my way of thinking about it.

mace
01-24-2009, 10:33 AM
I have the energy to go to 100, but the quality of discussion has gone down drastically over the past several prospects. I think 40 is a good place to stop unless a few people disagree.

I kind of like 50. About now it's getting real interesting, I think. We're into the area of picking out prospects from the blurry stretches of the farm system.

*BaseClogger*
01-24-2009, 05:12 PM
Like others have said, we really aren't even talking about prospects anymore. I concur that we should stop at 40, especially since that's the number we have used for the last couple of years...

*BaseClogger*
01-24-2009, 05:14 PM
I know that technically he is still eligible to be a rookie so we list him as a prospect. Just in my own view Janish, Dickerson, Hanigan, Ramirez, of course Bailey, probably even Castillo played a lot of major league ball last year so I wouldn't include them. Just my way of thinking about it.

I somewhat agree. I'm more likely to think of Bailey as a prospect than Dickerson or Hanigan...

mace
01-24-2009, 07:47 PM
Like others have said, we really aren't even talking about prospects anymore.

Don't agree. Craig Tatum, by all accounts, has major-league catching skills. Ramon Geronimo has numbers that George Grande would describe as brilliant. Same for Aguido Gonzalez. Shea Snowden last year had a 1.50 ERA as a 19-year-old. Mace Thurman has 45 strikeouts in 33 professional innings. Alexander Smit once fanned 141 in 108. Matt Fairel was a significant signing. Logan Parker has a career OBP of .372 . . .

AmarilloRed
01-24-2009, 11:22 PM
Like others have said, we really aren't even talking about prospects anymore. I concur that we should stop at 40, especially since that's the number we have used for the last couple of years...

Our farm system is deeper than it was the last couple of years, especially with the international signings. I think we should go to 50.

tripleaaaron
01-25-2009, 02:25 AM
Id like to go a little further if everyone else would like, I will even start creating them if camisadelgolf wants a break. I would like to keep going because the depth is really starting to amaze me. I always knew we had a deep farm system but the fact that we still have several guys with real potential and are nearing 40 is the only positive thing we have going as reds fans. It seems that these are the guys we will be counting on to lead us to the promise land, mixed in with the appropriate amount of dumpster dives.

dougdirt
01-25-2009, 03:04 AM
Id like to go a little further if everyone else would like, I will even start creating them if camisadelgolf wants a break. I would like to keep going because the depth is really starting to amaze me. I always knew we had a deep farm system but the fact that we still have several guys with real potential and are nearing 40 is the only positive thing we have going as reds fans. It seems that these are the guys we will be counting on to lead us to the promise land, mixed in with the appropriate amount of dumpster dives.

Its funny about this depth thing. JJ Cooper suggests that our #38 prospect Jordan Smith has the highest upside of any starter in the system not named Kyle Lotzkar. Jordan Smith isn't a bad prospect and had something like 10 pitchers ranked in front of him. Just think about that for a second.

camisadelgolf
01-25-2009, 06:52 AM
nemesis, REDblooded, RedRose323, stock, TOBTTReds, would you like to change your vote? Jordan Smith doesn't qualify.

Kingspoint
01-26-2009, 08:34 PM
I still think Sean Henry will have 2 or 3 years of quality Major League time in the Outfield for some organization, and that he deserves to be ranked higher than he is.

Mario-Rijo
01-26-2009, 09:13 PM
I still think Sean Henry will have 2 or 3 years of quality Major League time in the Outfield for some organization, and that he deserves to be ranked higher than he is.

I do as well and frankly that is why I don't really care if we go further or not. I think we lost sight of the true objective a long time ago if we ever had it right to begin with (as a group). To me the idea was to be as accurate as possible and come to some kind of true consensus. Problem is we can't come to that consensus for various reasons. I'm not pointing my finger just at others, here I was so ill informed that our 2nd best starting pitching prospect I practically didn't even know and now he's ranked 38th?

We need better and more complete scouting reports on players and we need to come to some kind of formula for ranking them that we can agree on. This constant ceiling vs. proven production argument is keeping our list far away from accurate. And if we aren't doing it for accuracy what are we doing it for, just fun? Maybe some don't really care to put in that kind of work but I know I am not satisfied with our list. What say you all?

Patrick Bateman
01-26-2009, 10:29 PM
Projecting young talent is way too subjective to come to anything close to resembling a concensus. It's a nice thought, but in my mind, impossible.

Mario-Rijo
01-26-2009, 11:10 PM
Projecting young talent is way too subjective to come to anything close to resembling a concensus. It's a nice thought, but in my mind, impossible.

I understand that, I certainly wouldn't expect us to nail it perfectly. But I do think we can do a whole lot better than we have.

mace
01-27-2009, 12:27 AM
I understand that, I certainly wouldn't expect us to nail it perfectly. But I do think we can do a whole lot better than we have.

But doesn't that imply that your opinion is the proper one? Seems to me that the exercise is to collect all the various opinions and see how they stack up.

Mario-Rijo
01-27-2009, 05:18 AM
But doesn't that imply that your opinion is the proper one? Seems to me that the exercise is to collect all the various opinions and see how they stack up.

No I am not implying that. In fact as I stated in my previous post to the one you are answering I too have made mistakes. My main thing is you have a large group who bases their opinion almost exclusively on ceiling another group who bases their opinion largely on production and yet another group who has a more balanced version of both. I mean what's the purpose behind making a list? If it's just to pass time and learn some about prospects then ok this will do. But it would be nice if we also ended up with a list that's pretty true.

On 2nd thought just forget I said anything. I realize people don't really have the time to collect that kind of data.

cincyinco
01-27-2009, 02:10 PM
Mario, don't worry... I feel the same way. But that's just me. I'm not trying to take anything away from anyone, and the intentions are good, and I've still had fun doing this list, but does seem flawed in its approach somewhat.

Mario-Rijo
01-27-2009, 03:32 PM
Mario, don't worry... I feel the same way. But that's just me. I'm not trying to take anything away from anyone, and the intentions are good, and I've still had fun doing this list, but does seem flawed in its approach somewhat.

I guess the reason I never said anything before was because I kept thinking that not everyone has the time on their hands that I do (been injured and out of work since April). I guess I just needed to get it off my chest though, but it wasn't without a positive as I just came up with an idea. I'll give it it's own thread to see what others think.

mace
01-27-2009, 03:37 PM
I don't mean to speak for the creators of the list, but to me the purpose it serves is simply to record how the forum, as a whole, feels about the pool of prospects in the winter of 2008-09. It's just for fun, future reference and taking inventory. The disparity in methods is inevitable and, to me, worthwhile. When you shake those differences together, the list is what pours out of the blender. At a later date, we can look back on it and see how we did, both personally and collectively. I don't have issues with the drill because it doesn't purport to be anything more than it is. Do I think Phil Valiquette should be elected at No. 40? Heck, no. But it interests me that a lot of people do, and it'll make me more inclined to follow his progress once the season starts.

Mario-Rijo
01-27-2009, 03:47 PM
I don't mean to speak for the creators of the list, but to me the purpose it serves is simply to record how the forum, as a whole, feels about the pool of prospects in the winter of 2008-09. It's just for fun, future reference and taking inventory. The disparity in methods is inevitable and, to me, worthwhile. When you shake those differences together, the list is what pours out of the blender. At a later date, we can look back on it and see how we did, both personally and collectively. I don't have issues with the drill because it doesn't purport to be anything more than it is. Do I think Phil Valiquette should be elected at No. 40? Heck, no. But it interests me that a lot of people do, and it'll make me more inclined to follow his progress once the season starts.

Good post and you are right. That said I guess I wish it did purport to be more than it is. I mean I wish we had a list to show the so called experts that they were wrong and we were right and why couldn't they get much closer with more access to info/data.

Personally I sit here and wonder what else I screwed up on when I miss Jordan Smith so badly, which I now am confident I completely wiffed on. It's just my competitive nature coming out I guess, nothing is worth doing if you don't do it right. But this current list does serve a purpose in it's own right, I just lost sight of some of it paying attention to my own selfish motives.

mace
01-27-2009, 05:41 PM
Good post and you are right. I wish we had a list to show the so called experts that they were wrong and we were right and why couldn't they get much closer with more access to info/data.


If that's an objective that a lot of people share, maybe it would be worthwhile for a committee of five or seven especially knowledgeable posters -- starting with the likes of Doug, OBM and c'golf -- to come up with a mutual and more informed list. Of course, they've all done their own, I believe.

Mario-Rijo
01-28-2009, 02:53 AM
If that's an objective that a lot of people share, maybe it would be worthwhile for a committee of five or seven especially knowledgeable posters -- starting with the likes of Doug, OBM and c'golf -- to come up with a mutual and more informed list. Of course, they've all done their own, I believe.

Yeah that was my idea the other day when I said I had one that I wanted to start a thread with. But I let the idea fizzle a bit, just wasn't sure it would be well received. But if some were interested I would like to see it. Maybe a list that just flat out says here is our best 20, 30, 40 minor leaguers in terms of most likely to make it and with the best impact in order.

I know I need to revamp my most current previous list, just tear it down and start from scratch. I just haven't found the best most specific formula. But I believe deep down that there is a better formula out there for predicting major league success from scouting reports and minor league #'s. I hope to figure out what that is.

Kingspoint
01-28-2009, 09:09 PM
No I am not implying that. In fact as I stated in my previous post to the one you are answering I too have made mistakes. My main thing is you have a large group who bases their opinion almost exclusively on ceiling another group who bases their opinion largely on production and yet another group who has a more balanced version of both. I mean what's the purpose behind making a list? If it's just to pass time and learn some about prospects then ok this will do. But it would be nice if we also ended up with a list that's pretty true.

On 2nd thought just forget I said anything. I realize people don't really have the time to collect that kind of data.

True. It really matters what you consider is important when determining this list.

tripleaaaron
01-29-2009, 02:29 AM
The more accurate depiction I think you are looking for is to remove the voting format. Everyone list list their top 40 and an average is taking, this way is merely informative and fun.