PDA

View Full Version : Baseball America Reds Top 30 (+1)



New Fever
01-31-2009, 01:40 AM
The Prospect Handbook is very interesting this year everyone who is a fan of Reds prospects or any baseball team should get the book.

1. Yonder Alonso
2. Todd Frazier
3. Drew Stubbs
4. Chris Valaika
5. Yorman Rodriguez
6. Kyle Lotzkar
7. Neftali Soto
8. Juan Francisco
9. Juan Duran
10. Devin Mesoraco
11. Daryl Thompson- may become a solid #3
12. Chris Dickerson
13. Jordan Smith- pitching with knee injury ruined season
14. Josh Roenicke
15. Zach Stewart
16. Ryan Hanigan
17. Ramon Ramirez
18. Matt Maloney
19. Zach Cozart
20. Juan Carlos Sulbaran- three pitch mix will start in Dayton
21. Dallas Buck- if healthy front-of-the-rotation stuff
22. Chris Heisey
23. Danny Dorn- can hit anybody's fastball
24. Carlos Fisher
25. Pedro Viola- Reds believe he can become a #3 starter
26. Sean Watson
27. Robert Manuel
28. Craig Tatum
29. Adam Rosales
30. Alex Bucholz- impressive bat speed
31. Phil Valiquette

tripleaaaron
01-31-2009, 01:57 AM
How it stacks up with our pool
Us .................................................. ...BA
#1 - Yonder Alonso...............................Same
#2 - Todd Frazier..................................Same
#3 - Neftali Soto..................................Drew Stubbs
#4 - Drew Stubbs ................................Chris Valaika
#5 - Chris Valaika.................................Yorman Rodriquez
#6 - Kyle Lotzkar .................................Same
#7 - Daryl Thompson..............................Neftali Soto
#8 - Juan Francisco ..............................Same
#9 - Juan Duran ...................................Same
#10 - Chris Dickerson ............................Devin Mesoraco
#11 - Devin Mesoraco ..........................Daryl Thompson
#12 - Danny Dorn ................................Chris Dickerson
#13 - Yorman Rodriguez ........................Jordan Smith (38)
#14 - Zach Stewart ..............................Josh Roenicke
#15 - Josh Roenicke.............................Zach Stewart
#16 - Ramon Ramirez............................. Ryan Hanigan
#17 - Zach Cozart................................. Ramon Ramirez
#18 - Matt Maloney.................................. Same
#19 - Carlos Fisher....................................Zach Cozart
#20 - Chris Heisey.....................................JC Sulbaran
#21 - Ryan Hanigan.................................... Dallas Buck
#22 - Dallas Buck .......................................Chris Heissey
#23 - Adam Rosales...................................... Danny Dorn
#24 - Alex Buchholz .....................................Carlos Fisher
#25 - Travis Wood........................................ Pedro Viola
#26 - Jeremy Horst.......................................Sean Watson (34)
#27 - Pedro Viola........................................... Robert Manual
#28 - Evan Hildenbrandt..................................Crai g Tatum (NR)
#29 - Juan Carlos Sulbaran...............................Adam Rosales
#30 - Sam Lecure............................................ Alex Bucholz
#31 - Robert Manuel.........................................Phi l Valiquette (40)

() denotes rank in prospect vote if not otherwise listed

Mario-Rijo
01-31-2009, 04:46 AM
Intriguing.

Screwball
01-31-2009, 06:14 AM
Wow, how badly did we miss Jordan Smith?

camisadelgolf
01-31-2009, 07:37 AM
Wow, how badly did we miss Jordan Smith?

If not for the injury, he would have ranked much, much higher. We're a fickle crowd, here at RedsZone. ;)

dougdirt
01-31-2009, 11:26 AM
Wow, how badly did we miss Jordan Smith?

Badly. Don't feel too bad though. That one seems to be a wide spread one.

Back when I did my list on my site, I put him at #34. In hindsight I probably should have put him 10 spots higher or so. I talked with a scout who got to see him in earlier in the year and his words were 'He could start in the majors right now'.

Granted at that time he was throwing really well at the time, and I knew his potential. I didn't know that he was throwing with a banged up leg though.

Still, with that said John Sickels left him off of the top 21 he listed on his site and didn't mention him in his 16 other prospects he named. So, it seems that most of us missed out on him some.

jojo
01-31-2009, 11:55 AM
Smith is a 23 yo pitch to contact arm who might be Ryan Franklin as a starter in the majors if he can prove that he can eat innings. BA is probably reacting to his control as control is a first prerequisite for pitching success in the majors but, really, Smith doesn't have a lot to distinguish himself after that....

OnBaseMachine
01-31-2009, 11:59 AM
It looks like Baseball America is high on Juan Carlos Sulbaran. I am too. I've seen some video of him pitching and I came away very impressed, especially with the great movement on his fastball. And it looks like BA agrees with most of us on Dallas Buck - if he regains his fastball then he's got a chance at being a top-of-the-rotation starter.

I've always liked Pedro Viola but I had him pegged as a reliever in the mold of a Rafael Perez type. It looks like the Reds like him even better than I do if they see him as a potential #3 starter. He's got a very good fastball/slider combo so if he can master a changeup then he could possibly reach that ceiling.

dougdirt
01-31-2009, 12:03 PM
Smith is a 23 yo pitch to contact arm who might be Ryan Franklin as a starter in the majors if he can prove that he can eat innings. BA is probably reacting to his control as control is a first prerequisite for pitching success in the majors but, really, Smith doesn't have a lot to distinguish himself after that....

Smith has good control and a sinker that runs up to 95 MPH with an above average slider. That is fairly distinguishing. He hasn't missed a ton of bats in his minor league career, but his K rate has stayed around 16-17% the entire time up the ladder and his control has always been good. He needs to be more consistent with his third pitch though.

princeton
01-31-2009, 12:30 PM
it'd be funny if Chris "Dangerfield" Dickerson won Rookie of the Year award (is he eligible?)


I could live with that.

OnBaseMachine
01-31-2009, 12:36 PM
it'd be funny if Chris "Dangerfield" Dickerson won Rookie of the Year award (is he eligible?)


Yep he's still eligible. He only had 102 atbats (the limit is 130) and wasn't on the active roster for more than 45 days before September 1.

jojo
01-31-2009, 12:53 PM
Smith has good control and a sinker that runs up to 95 MPH with an above average slider. That is fairly distinguishing. He hasn't missed a ton of bats in his minor league career, but his K rate has stayed around 16-17% the entire time up the ladder and his control has always been good. He needs to be more consistent with his third pitch though.

His sinker isn't going to consistently be anywhere close to 95 mph. If he makes it to the majors, he'll have average velocity. The guy begs hitters to put the ball in play.

dougdirt
01-31-2009, 01:10 PM
His sinker isn't going to consistently be anywhere close to 95 mph. If he makes it to the majors, he'll have average velocity. The guy begs hitters to put the ball in play.

Not many guys can, but he has two above average pitches, gets lots of ground balls, has good control and a big pitchers frame that should be able to lead to plenty of innings.

jojo
01-31-2009, 01:22 PM
Not many guys can, but he has two above average pitches, gets lots of ground balls, has good control and a big pitchers frame that should be able to lead to plenty of innings.

He's got an average sinker and slider that he can throw for strikes. He doesn't miss bats.

If he had two plus pitches and plus command, wouldn't BA have him higher than 13th in a farm characterized best by it's depth? John Sickels tends to mention guys like that too....

Superdude
01-31-2009, 02:16 PM
No Dorn love! Interesting about Smith. I really thought he was older than 22 though until I checked his stats a minute ago.

dougdirt
01-31-2009, 02:32 PM
He's got an average sinker and slider that he can throw for strikes. He doesn't miss bats.

If he had two plus pitches and plus command, wouldn't BA have him higher than 13th in a farm characterized best by it's depth? John Sickels tends to mention guys like that too....

I never said he had two plus pitches. I said he has two above average ones. I have heard his slider referred to as a plus pitch, but I have also heard it called above average and so I will go with above average until I get a chance to see it more often referred to as plus by people I know made that assumption on their own merit not by something they heard.

Still, he doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he induces ground balls and doesn't walk guys while still missing some bats. I don't think its a stretch to see him be a guy who puts up similar IP and ERA numbers to Arroyo (without potentially having a 2006 type season mixed in). They will go about arriving at the final spots differently, but a 3-1 K to BB and lots of ground balls can lead to success even if you are only striking out 15-18% of the batters you see.

Bip Roberts
01-31-2009, 03:18 PM
I wonder how much Juan Carlos will pitch in the WBC. Wasnt he one of the netherlands best starters in the olympics?

OnBaseMachine
01-31-2009, 03:27 PM
He's got an average sinker and slider that he can throw for strikes. He doesn't miss bats.


Just curious, how do know you his sinker and slider are only average?

jojo
01-31-2009, 03:33 PM
I never said he had two plus pitches. I said he has two above average ones. I have heard his slider referred to as a plus pitch, but I have also heard it called above average and so I will go with above average until I get a chance to see it more often referred to as plus by people I know made that assumption on their own merit not by something they heard.

Still, he doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he induces ground balls and doesn't walk guys while still missing some bats. I don't think its a stretch to see him be a guy who puts up similar IP and ERA numbers to Arroyo (without potentially having a 2006 type season mixed in). They will go about arriving at the final spots differently, but a 3-1 K to BB and lots of ground balls can lead to success even if you are only striking out 15-18% of the batters you see.

"Above average" basically implies "plus" (a 60). Parsing the difference between a "55" and a "50" as being definitively meaningful when the instrument recording the numbers is a thumb in the air really doesn't lead to meaningful differences.

Mario-Rijo
01-31-2009, 03:42 PM
His sinker isn't going to consistently be anywhere close to 95 mph. If he makes it to the majors, he'll have average velocity. The guy begs hitters to put the ball in play.

And just how do you presume this? If his trademark is he has good control then his FB may not have to come down, he can continue throwing where he's at now.

jojo
01-31-2009, 03:55 PM
Just curious, how do you his sinker and slider are only average?

We know what velocity he works and we know he doesn't miss wood. I've also seen him pitch (take that for what it's worth). This isn't a guy waiting to figure stuff out. He's basically going to go as far as command of two average pitches can take him which means he's got a decent chance of logging some back end innings. For the Reds, that means waiting in line in a logjam.

If that makes him the 13th best prospect in the Reds system, so be it. It's just not something earth shattering.

jojo
01-31-2009, 03:56 PM
And just how do you presume this? If his trademark is he has good control then his FB may not have to come down, he can continue throwing where he's at now.

I was gently suggesting that the 95 mph velocity was registered through beer goggles.... :cool:

New Fever
01-31-2009, 03:58 PM
In the Handbook it says that Jordan Smith throws a plus slider but he has a fringy changeup. A 91-94 fastball with excellent sink. It also says in the book he went to the trainer in AA and told him his knee had been bothering him for a while. He took an exam and he had torn cartilage in his knee.

Mario-Rijo
01-31-2009, 04:08 PM
In the Handbook it says that Jordan Smith throws a plus slider but he has a fringy changeup. A 91-94 fastball with excellent sink. It also says in the book he went to the trainer in AA and told him his knee had been bothering him for a while. He took an exam and he had torn cartilage in his knee.

Thanks for the info New Fever.

Mario-Rijo
01-31-2009, 04:10 PM
I was gently suggesting that the 95 mph velocity was registered through beer goggles.... :cool:

Well I don't think velocity is a big deal in this situation. Brandon Webb throws his sinker in the 89-90 area, of course the real reason he get's so many outs with it is his degree of break and direction. His is splitter-esque in that it goes straight down and causes a lot of folks to top the ball which induces the grounder. But the real key to his is how hard and fast it breaks. So I'd say we need more info on Smith's sinker both break and direction would help.

OnBaseMachine
01-31-2009, 06:01 PM
I remember the original scouting report on Smith had his velocity as high as 95-96. Of course he doesn't throw that hard consistently but he's definitely got some heat on his fastball. I've always thought he profiled best as a setup man because of his sinker/slider combo, but if he can develop an average or better changeup then he may have a chance at developing into a middle-of-the-rotation starter. I'll be interested in seeing how he performs in Double-A this year.

Kc61
02-01-2009, 12:10 AM
Notice Travis Wood isn't on the BA list. Wood and Smith had very similar years last season, dominating at High A and struggling at AA. Wood is a year younger, Smith has a bigger frame. Lecure, another guy I like, also didn't make the cut, surprisingly.

I've always been a supporter of Smith around here because he gives up relatively few baserunners despite not striking out too many. He seems to get by on ground balls and by allowing relatively few walks and few home runs. He has a lifetime WHIP of 1.26 which is excellent for a starting pitcher.

I'd like to see Smith's strikeout numbers improve a bit, he would then be a more complete pitcher. His lifetime average is 6.4 Ks per nine innings. If he could get it to 7 or a little more, that would be great.

Glad he got recognition from BA.

Mario-Rijo
02-01-2009, 06:27 AM
Notice Travis Wood isn't on the BA list. Wood and Smith had very similar years last season, dominating at High A and struggling at AA. Wood is a year younger, Smith has a bigger frame. Lecure, another guy I like, also didn't make the cut, surprisingly.

I've always been a supporter of Smith around here because he gives up relatively few baserunners despite not striking out too many. He seems to get by on ground balls and by allowing relatively few walks and few home runs. He has a lifetime WHIP of 1.26 which is excellent for a starting pitcher.

I'd like to see Smith's strikeout numbers improve a bit, he would then be a more complete pitcher. His lifetime average is 6.4 Ks per nine innings. If he could get it to 7 or a little more, that would be great.

Glad he got recognition from BA.

He hasn't had to K a lot of guys yet which could be the reason he hasn't. He figured out a long time ago what many guys take forever too, pitching to contact keeps you in and the team in the game. Not a gaurantee but it's a logical reason. I say push this arm and see what he can do at AAA quickly if he starts off well in AA. This season is gonna be interesting for a whole lot of reasons.

lollipopcurve
02-05-2009, 01:49 PM
The emergence of Smith in these prospect rankings is a welcome development, for sure. If I recall correctly, he came late to pitching, maybe converting while he was in community college. If that's the case, he probably still has a a fair ceiling to grow into.

camisadelgolf
02-05-2009, 01:52 PM
The emergence of Smith in these prospect rankings is a welcome development, for sure. If I recall correctly, he came late to pitching, maybe converting while he was in community college. If that's the case, he probably still has a a fair ceiling to grow into.

You're right. He was a catcher/first baseman for Salt Lake Community College but transferred to CC of Southern Nevada to pitch.

OnBaseMachine
02-05-2009, 03:26 PM
angelbravo: Congrats on the Duran signing, Bob -- nice work there. Will both Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran play in the States this summer -- GCL, I assume -- and, if so, do you expect them to be able to succeed and move up within a year?

Miller: They should play in the GCL. They are only going to be 16 and 17 years old, so we'll play it by ear. They both have tremendous tools and physical ability.

shaknb8k: Were you involved in looking at Rodriguez and Duran and if so, what did you see in them that stood out from the other international top signers?

Miller: Size, athleticism, strength.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090205&content_id=3801396&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin