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BearcatShane
02-01-2009, 02:01 AM
Barring a Xavier Nady trade or a deal for Bobby Abreu, the 2009 season is going to have little to no hype at all. I understand that, and honestly, I'm ok with that. So the Reds didn't sign Eric Milton, trade for Ramon Ortiz, and bring in Joe Randa. You see, thats what the old ownership and front ofice would have done, they would have brought in veterans that were past there prime to try and convince Reds fans that the season just might be able to be salvaged. Jocketty/Castelini have a plan. The plan is to let Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Volquez and Cueto grow and lead this team in the future. Now, I know Reds fans don't like to hear about the future, the difference between hearing about it now opposed to all the previous years is, quite simply, there is one. Jay Bruce is going to be an absolute star. His power is not yer fully developed. He will be 22 when he trots out to right field on opening day next year. in 2013, Jay Bruce will own this town in the summer. Joey Votto is a stud as well, he can flat out hit and he along with Bruce are going to be leaders in this clubhouse for years. Hopefully their careers. Cueto is a lights out pitcher, I mean lights out, he is a #1 and were all going to see his dominance truely start this year. Volquez is very, very good. I think he'll be a solid #2 right behind Cueto. Chris Dickerson, the Reds are gonna let the kid play and their going to see what exactly they have. Maybe as an everyday player, he turns out to be a .255 average guy with 10-12 homerun power and a decent OBP but needs to be on the bench, or maybe he is a .280 hitter with 20 HR power that gets on base alot. The Reds want to find that out, I'm cool with that. Willy T? IDK, I'm not as down on the kid as everyone else on redzone is, maybe he gets his 2007 form back, we'll see. I'm rooting for him hard. Basically, when you look at the team, they're is a ton of youth that is uber talented and it might take a year or two to get some of the holes figured out but I'm ok with the Reds letting the kids play. Maybe they develop a little early and we win this year, proabably not. I'll be a Reds fan either way. And I'll make more than a few visits to GABP to watch the youngsters grow.

DannyB
02-01-2009, 02:33 AM
Not to mention parking should be a snap.

fadetoblack2880
02-01-2009, 03:20 AM
Barring a Xavier Nady trade or a deal for Bobby Abreu, the 2009 season is going to have little to no hype at all. I understand that, and honestly, I'm ok with that. So the Reds didn't sign Eric Milton, trade for Ramon Ortiz, and bring in Joe Randa. You see, thats what the old ownership and front ofice would have done, they would have brought in veterans that were past there prime to try and convince Reds fans that the season just might be able to be salvaged. Jocketty/Castelini have a plan. The plan is to let Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Volquez and Cueto grow and lead this team in the future. Now, I know Reds fans don't like to hear about the future, the difference between hearing about it now opposed to all the previous years is, quite simply, there is one. Jay Bruce is going to be an absolute star. His power is not yer fully developed. He will be 22 when he trots out to right field on opening day next year. in 2013, Jay Bruce will own this town in the summer. Joey Votto is a stud as well, he can flat out hit and he along with Bruce are going to be leaders in this clubhouse for years. Hopefully their careers. Cueto is a lights out pitcher, I mean lights out, he is a #1 and were all going to see his dominance truely start this year. Volquez is very, very good. I think he'll be a solid #2 right behind Cueto. Chris Dickerson, the Reds are gonna let the kid play and their going to see what exactly they have. Maybe as an everyday player, he turns out to be a .255 average guy with 10-12 homerun power and a decent OBP but needs to be on the bench, or maybe he is a .280 hitter with 20 HR power that gets on base alot. The Reds want to find that out, I'm cool with that. Willy T? IDK, I'm not as down on the kid as everyone else on redzone is, maybe he gets his 2007 form back, we'll see. I'm rooting for him hard. Basically, when you look at the team, they're is a ton of youth that is uber talented and it might take a year or two to get some of the holes figured out but I'm ok with the Reds letting the kids play. Maybe they develop a little early and we win this year, proabably not. I'll be a Reds fan either way. And I'll make more than a few visits to GABP to watch the youngsters grow.

i agree with you. plus there is no valentin, no patterson, no bako, no freel, no griffey, no dunn. jocketty has rid this team of some dead weight. granted taveras might not be that great, but he is a speedster and when or if he gets on, he'll be fun to watch. i look forward to seeing what this team can do. the homeruns didn't make this team a winner and people clamored for something different. well, it's different now. and i look forward to it.

Rusty the Red
02-01-2009, 09:18 AM
The Reds have a plan. I like that.

mroby85
02-01-2009, 09:58 AM
maybe we'll get a power bat in 2010?

roby
02-01-2009, 10:05 AM
maybe we'll get a power bat in 2010?

I think the plan is to rebuild for 3010.

UPRedsFan
02-01-2009, 11:53 AM
maybe we'll get a power bat in 2010?

Yes we will. And his name will be: Yonder

thatcoolguy_22
02-01-2009, 12:39 PM
i agree with you. plus there is no valentin, no patterson, no bako, no freel, no griffey, no dunn. jocketty has rid this team of some dead weight. granted taveras might not be that great, but he is a speedster and when or if he gets on, he'll be fun to watch. i look forward to seeing what this team can do. the homeruns didn't make this team a winner and people clamored for something different. well, it's different now. and i look forward to it.

It's foolish to blame Dunn for this team's putrid last decade. A .900 OPS bat can only do so much when balls fly over his head into the LF bleachers...

This team will definitely be different to watch though. They seem scrappalicious with some young talent looking to step forward. It should be interesting at least.



Yes we will. And his name will be: Yonder
Not to mention the 3rd season of both Votto and Bruce. The power will definitely be there.

Chris Sabowned
02-01-2009, 01:52 PM
i agree with you. plus there is no valentin, no patterson, no bako, no freel, no griffey, no dunn. jocketty has rid this team of some dead weight.


You are right that overall the roster is filled with more Major League quality players, and fewer rifraffs, but claiming that Dunn was dead weight is absurd. I like our bullpen and our rotation better than I have any time this decade, but I think we'll come to miss Adam Dunn, at least those of us who understand OPS will.

fadetoblack2880
02-01-2009, 02:08 PM
You are right that overall the roster is filled with more Major League quality players, and fewer rifraffs, but claiming that Dunn was dead weight is absurd. I like our bullpen and our rotation better than I have any time this decade, but I think we'll come to miss Adam Dunn, at least those of us who understand OPS will.

i didnt mean to claim dunn as that. dunn was the one guy of that bunch i hated to see go. i still wish he hadnt been dealt away. still though, this team may be better without him. time will tell.

Blood Red Path
02-01-2009, 03:28 PM
but I think we'll come to miss Adam Dunn, at least those of us who understand OPS will.

And those of us who understand that your sabermetrics don't take into account how frustrating it is to watch a guy with as much power as anyone in the sport(not to mention playing in a bandbox) let 90% or more of every 3-2 pitch he's seen in his entire career float past him(no matter where it was located in relation to the plate) will not miss him.

Chris Sabowned
02-01-2009, 05:08 PM
And those of us who understand that your sabermetrics don't take into account how frustrating it is to watch a guy with as much power as anyone in the sport(not to mention playing in a bandbox) let 90% or more of every 3-2 pitch he's seen in his entire career float past him(no matter where it was located in relation to the plate) will not miss him.

Yah, you're right. I hate it when batters work the count, get the pitcher's pitch count up and draw walks. Not gonna miss that. :rolleyes:

BearcatShane
02-01-2009, 05:53 PM
Would I like to have Dunn still? Yes. He does alot of positive things but I'm ok with him being gone. I really think we needed player personel change on and off the field. Dunn and Griffey kind of set an example, an example that I'm not sure I wanted to see Bruce and Votto get used too. I have a feeling the 2009 team is going to be known as a scrappy, hungry team that will do anything to win. Will that equate to 90+ wins? Probably not, but I think 09 is a good year to start to change the lazy mindset of Cincinnati players.
This year will be the beginning of a core group of players that will lead this franchise for years to come.

redsfandan
02-01-2009, 06:32 PM
You are right that overall the roster is filled with more Major League quality players, and fewer rifraffs, but claiming that Dunn was dead weight is absurd. I like our bullpen and our rotation better than I have any time this decade, but I think we'll come to miss Adam Dunn, at least those of us who understand OPS will.

I'll agree that all the losses weren't his fault. But I'll disagree that I'll miss Dunn. The people that understand OPS AND the concept of using your money wisely probably won't miss him much either. Even with his price coming down we could have 90% of his production at a fraction of the cost with better defense as well. Sorry but I'd rather use the difference in money for our next shortstop and to lock up the young players. Call me crazy but that kinda makes sense to me.

RED VAN HOT
02-01-2009, 07:18 PM
I'll agree that all the losses weren't his fault. But I'll disagree that I'll miss Dunn. The people that understand OPS AND the concept of using your money wisely probably won't miss him much either. Even with his price coming down we could have 90% of his production at a fraction of the cost with better defense as well. Sorry but I'd rather use the difference in money for our next shortstop and to lock up the young players. Call me crazy but that kinda makes sense to me.

IMO, most general managers would agree with you. They seem to be less willing to sacrifice defense in LF for power than in prior years. Not only Dunn, but Abreu, Burrell, and even Manny have found it hard to get their price. Although Dodger fans would disagree, I think the Dodgers are wise to refuse to go more than two years. If Manny's production were to decline to .285 and 25 HRs, a decline which is more likely than not at his age, his offense would not be sufficient to offset his defense and the other distractions he brings. Speed and defense are still sufficiently cheaper than power to offer better value, but the market is adjusting.

ChatterRed
02-01-2009, 09:11 PM
No playoffs, but I do think the weaknesses have been addressed, but in economical fashion. No big $$$ being thrown around like some would like, but we have more legit options at positions of need. I'd still like a Swisher or Nady type for even better options. But we have two catching options. Multiple options at SS. The same infield for the most part. Bruce, Dickerson, Tavares, and hopefully others in the OF. 5th starter has been addressed with Owings, and Ramirez emerged late last season. Rest of the starters are the same, but we have to wait and see if Harang is his old self. Bullpen is the same, if not slightly better.......continuity. Defense should be slightly upgraded. Speed is upgraded. Votto and Bruce have emerged as home run threats. Votto, EE, Phillips and Bruce could all hit 20-35 HR's if they continue to progress.

Not a great team, but possibly better than last year and possibly poised to surprise. Not counting on it, but last year the 5th starter options sucked and we still had Dunn and Junior clogging up the outfield. Atleast now the future is upon us.

thatcoolguy_22
02-02-2009, 07:52 AM
I'll agree that all the losses weren't his fault. But I'll disagree that I'll miss Dunn. The people that understand OPS AND the concept of using your money wisely probably won't miss him much either. Even with his price coming down we could have 90% of his production at a fraction of the cost with better defense as well.

Explain how the Reds will get 90% of his production? Gomes? Hairston? Dickerson? Add all of their counting stats together and you won't get 90% of AD's production! You're being facetious about those who understand OPS and spending money liking the fact that AD is gone and Gomes/Dickerson are in. Especially since Gomes is a worse defender and, Dickerson has only had 100+ MLB PA.

Brilliant idea, not sign a guy for pennies on the dollar for his production (and .900 OPS is major production) and then turn the money around and resign an injury prone utility player coming off a career year, a 39 year LOOGY, trade for a poorly aging catcher, a CF who can barely play the position and can only bunt for a hit and, resign a 39 year old David "stormy" Weathers in arbitration. I would much rather have Dunn and minor league filler over, Weathers, Rhodes, Lincoln, Hairston, Taveras etc etc.



Sorry but I'd rather use the difference in money for our next shortstop and to lock up the young players. Call me crazy but that kinda makes sense to me.

Oh and I will call you crazy because NO YOUNG PLAYERS WERE LOCKED UP and THERE IS NO NEW SS!! Adam Dunn will sign a 1 year deal. Who is that money going to keep us from acquiring? I got it you want to sign Votto/Bruce to a Longoria like 6 or 7 year contract to buy out their 2 MLB minimum and 3 arb years so we can avoid losing them to FA 2 years sooner. WHAT?!?!? Name the young players you want us to lock up. EE is the only player arb eligible player. Do you really want to sign him to an LTC? Lets think about this for a minute...

redsfandan
02-02-2009, 05:57 PM
Interesting points thatcoolguy_22. I'm just not sure that I agree with any of them but that's ok. I don't have time right now but if I do when I get back from work tomorrow I'll give a proper response. By the way...


Oh and I will call you crazy ...
I've been called worse. :D

Ghosts of 1990
02-02-2009, 06:40 PM
agree we should look for the positive. The biggest reasons are Bruce, Cueto, Votto, Volquez and Castillo!

thatcoolguy_22
02-02-2009, 07:22 PM
Interesting points thatcoolguy_22. I'm just not sure that I agree with any of them but that's ok. I don't have time right now but if I do when I get back from work tomorrow I'll give a proper response. By the way...

I've been called worse. :D

:D cheers! It's all in good fun:thumbup:

TheNext44
02-02-2009, 08:57 PM
Explain how the Reds will get 90% of his production? Gomes? Hairston? Dickerson? Add all of their counting stats together and you won't get 90% of AD's production! You're being facetious about those who understand OPS and spending money liking the fact that AD is gone and Gomes/Dickerson are in. Especially since Gomes is a worse defender and, Dickerson has only had 100+ MLB PA.

Here is how I explain it. Don't use counting stats, they are not as accurate as OPS.

Nearly every year Dunn, according to the simple runs created formula, was responsible for around 110 runs. That is outstanding, top 5% of the league.

If Dickerson is able to put up his career minor league numbers in the majors: .260 .360 .415 .775 for 350 AB's against righties, that would create 52 runs.
If Gomes is able to put up his career numbers against LHP: .266 .369 .510 .879 in 250 AB's against lefties, he would create 47 runs.
Combined, that would total 99 runs that the two of them create. That is exactly 90% of 110 runs.

And Gomes is a worse defender than Dunn, but Dickerson is much, much better, and he will get around 75% of the innings, since the Reds will face more righties, and Gomes will be pulled in the late innings of most close games. Overall, defense should improve in LF next year for the Reds.

redsfandan
02-03-2009, 09:56 AM
You little beepity beep beep TheNext44 that's how I was gonna respond too lol. My #'s were a little different but the end result was the same. I took the Chones projection on fangraphs for Dickerson http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7095&position=OF which was the most conservative projection (for example a .238 ba & a .749 ops). If he platoons with Gomes that would make that projection even more conservative since most projections are based on abs vs BOTH rhp & lhp. Dickerson has always hit rhp better than lhp and Gomes has always hit lhp better than rhp which is why this platoon could work.

One interesting thing about Gomes is his babip vs lhp in each of the four seasons he's
played. (he only had 29 abs before '05)

'05 .393
'06 .324
'07 .410
'08 .172

In '06 he had a sore shoulder which eventually required season ending surgery. In '07 the babip was back to the same range it was in '05. Than in '08 it fell off a cliff. That's a very unlucky babip and it shouldn't be a surprise if it reverts back to career norms if he's healthy. TheNext44 pointed out how Gomes has an .879 career ops vs lhp (including '08). But if you take out his unlucky '08 and look at what he did in the other 3 seasons ('05-'07) you have an even more impressive .299 .402 .551 .953 line vs lhp. And that's a little more impressive than that Marcels projection of a .742 OPS you've cited before which (like I said earlier) is based on abs vs lhp AND rhp. Plus that was with Tropicana field as a home park that was/is a pitchers park which GABP is obviously not.

So I had Gomes with 180 abs (conservative estimate of abs vs lhp while in leftfield) and 37.685 runs created. Based on the Chone projection I had Dickerson with 442 abs (I didn't change the abs from the projection) and 61.19 runs created. That's a total of 99 runs created same as TheNext44's estimation. Either way you calculate the #'s a leftfield platoon of Dickerson vs rhp and Gomes vs lhp could be alot more productive than some apparently think. (I just don't understand why some people hate Gomes so much. I don't want him as a 500+ ab starter either but would I take him on a minor league contract if most of his abs were vs lhp and he costs less than a million? Hell yeah I would!)

As for the other points...

Sorry but I'd rather use the difference in money for our next shortstop and to lock up the young players. Call me crazy but that kinda makes sense to me.



Oh and I will call you crazy because NO YOUNG PLAYERS WERE LOCKED UP and THERE IS NO NEW SS!! Adam Dunn will sign a 1 year deal. Who is that money going to keep us from acquiring? I got it you want to sign Votto/Bruce to a Longoria like 6 or 7 year contract to buy out their 2 MLB minimum and 3 arb years so we can avoid losing them to FA 2 years sooner. WHAT?!?!?

Name the young players you want us to lock up. EE is the only player arb eligible player. Do you really want to sign him to an LTC? Lets think about this for a minute...

Actually, even if his stats drop off a little, if he still has a good season the 1st player I'd want signed to an LTC is Volquez who will be up for arbitration after this season.

Shortstop? Well if AGon IS healthy than we're ok ... for now. We'll still have to acquire a new ss sometime to take over in 2010. I'd still prefer a top ss prospect but I think Khalil Greene will still be a FA after the season. Same with Tejada.

TheNext44
02-03-2009, 06:20 PM
You little beepity beep beep TheNext44 that's how I was gonna respond too lol. My #'s were a little different but the end result was the same. I took the Chones projection on fangraphs for Dickerson http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7095&position=OF which was the most conservative projection (for example a .238 ba & a .749 ops). If he platoons with Gomes that would make that projection even more conservative since most projections are based on abs vs BOTH rhp & lhp. Dickerson has always hit rhp better than lhp and Gomes has always hit lhp better than rhp which is why this platoon could work.

One interesting thing about Gomes is his babip vs lhp in each of the four seasons he's
played. (he only had 29 abs before '05)

'05 .393
'06 .324
'07 .410
'08 .172

In '06 he had a sore shoulder which eventually required season ending surgery. In '07 the babip was back to the same range it was in '05. Than in '08 it fell off a cliff. That's a very unlucky babip and it shouldn't be a surprise if it reverts back to career norms if he's healthy. TheNext44 pointed out how Gomes has an .879 career ops vs lhp (including '08). But if you take out his unlucky '08 and look at what he did in the other 3 seasons ('05-'07) you have an even more impressive .299 .402 .551 .953 line vs lhp. And that's a little more impressive than that Marcels projection of a .742 OPS you've cited before which (like I said earlier) is based on abs vs lhp AND rhp. Plus that was with Tropicana field as a home park that was/is a pitchers park which GABP is obviously not.

So I had Gomes with 180 abs (conservative estimate of abs vs lhp while in leftfield) and 37.685 runs created. Based on the Chone projection I had Dickerson with 442 abs (I didn't change the abs from the projection) and 61.19 runs created. That's a total of 99 runs created same as TheNext44's estimation. Either way you calculate the #'s a leftfield platoon of Dickerson vs rhp and Gomes vs lhp could be alot more productive than some apparently think. (I just don't understand why some people hate Gomes so much. I don't want him as a 500+ ab starter either but would I take him on a minor league contract if most of his abs were vs lhp and he costs less than a million? Hell yeah I would!)

As for the other points...




Actually, even if his stats drop off a little, if he still has a good season the 1st player I'd want signed to an LTC is Volquez who will be up for arbitration after this season.

Shortstop? Well if AGon IS healthy than we're ok ... for now. We'll still have to acquire a new ss sometime to take over in 2010. I'd still prefer a top ss prospect but I think Khalil Greene will still be a FA after the season. Same with Tejada.

Sorry for stealing your thunder, I didn't notice that you said you would get back to him the next day. My bad.

But it is encouraging to see that LF can get to 99 runs created in more than one way. Nice work!

redsfandan
02-04-2009, 03:11 AM
Sorry for stealing your thunder, I didn't notice that you said you would get back to him the next day. My bad.
No problem, I was just joking anyway.

But it is encouraging to see that LF can get to 99 runs created in more than one way. Nice work!
I think we have to keep our fingers crossed but it cetainly looks possible.

brachial pleXUs
02-10-2009, 04:57 PM
Since this has turned into (yet another) Adam Dunn thread, I might as well jump in with my 2 cents. Dunn is a great player; there is no doubt of that. He put up incredible numbers year after year, in a way that few players have been able to match. However, his great offense was not enough to lift his team to victory. Simply put, he was not clutch.

Before everyone sends their angry posts, I know that clutch is a subjective measurement, and many see it to be "junk." I know that BA/RISP has been sabermetrically proven to be junk. However, "not clutch" is the only term I can think of to describe the fact that so many of Dunn's runs came when they were not needed, as opposed to when they would have made a huge and immediate difference. That being said, you absolutely cannot blame Adam Dunn for the Reds' struggles, because nobody's runs came when we needed them, and perhaps his runs would have made a difference if the opposing team had not scored so many runs themselves.

So, we have determined that you cannot blame Adam Dunn for his non-clutchness. Who, or what, then, can we blame? On a rational level, we must admit that Dunn played on some pretty bad teams, even though as reds fans we loved these teams and sometimes refused to admit that they were as awful as everyone else knew they were. On a completely irrational level, I chose some time ago to blame the city of Cincinnati. Neither the Reds nor the Bengals are clutch, and at that time (2005-2006 ish) my beloved Musketeers were not clutch. I no longer hold this view. As the Musketeers have gotten better and better, I have come to realize that good teams win games. Good teams do what they need to do, and because of this, are inherently "clutch."

To sum it up, it was very frustrating to watch Adam Dunn for 6 years as he struck out in 1-run games and hit solo homers in 7-run games. His non-clutchness (measured by the sinking of one's heart around the seventh inning of each game), is not, however, an indictment of himself, but of the team for which he played. Thus, the only thing upon which one can blame the Reds' struggles is the Reds themselves

Using this as a framework, it can be easily argued that the Reds should not have traded Adam Dunn--that by improving the team around him, the Reds could improve Dunn's production as well. Numerically, this is absolutely true, but one cannot deny that from a human standpoint, both Dunn and the Reds needed to move on. I believe that the media had the viewpoints of Dunn and the Reds reversed: Dunn was ready to "win now," and the Reds weren't quite as ready as they thought they were. Thus, the Dunn trade was not helpful to the Reds in a baseball sense. I, however, have chosen to do what the Reds and Adam Dunn have both done (no pun intended)--move on.

I am optimistic about the Reds' chances of winning in the next few years, but this optimism is in no way tied to Adam Dunn being either here or gone. I see a team that lost last year, but unlike years past, they lost with young, developing talent. This young talent can only improve, and as it does, I believe it will elevate the Reds to victory. Perhaps this young talent would have elevated Adam Dunn's clutchness rating as well, but it is no matter--he is gone.

brachial pleXUs
02-10-2009, 04:58 PM
wow that was long--sorry!

DTCromer
02-10-2009, 05:54 PM
Like I said, sensing that most Reds fans are doomier and gloomier than last year, I'll take my chances that this year will be a much better year. Have faith in Walt my friends, keep the faith.

DannyB
02-11-2009, 08:05 PM
Like I said, sensing that most Reds fans are doomier and gloomier than last year, I'll take my chances that this year will be a much better year. Have faith in Walt my friends, keep the faith.After last year,it wont take much to be better.Thats really not good enough for me.