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OnBaseMachine
02-03-2009, 02:59 PM
Though the expected return on a draft pick after even the first few rounds drops precipitously, there are future big leaguers to be found in the later rounds, even excluding players who drop due to signability reasons. The 11th round of the 2001 draft produced both Geovany Soto and Dan Uggla. In 2004, Tampa Bay drafted Andy Sonnanstine in the 13th round, three rounds before the Diamondbacks snagged Mark Reynolds.

So, who might be the next late-round gem floating around the minors right now?

Weíll exclude draft-and-follows and players who signed from the 10th round and on for bonuses well above slot. Lars Anderson was a great pick for the Red Sox when they drafted him in the 18th round in 2006, but he came with an $825,000 price tag.

Here are five players drafted in the 10th round or later who have a chance to exceed expectations and become quality big leaguers.

Danny Dorn, lf, Reds: Nine hundred fifty three players went off the board in the 2006 draft before the Reds selected Dorn in the 32nd round as a Cal State Fullerton senior. Eight of Dornís Fullerton teammates even went ahead of him the draft. But none of them has performed as well in the professional ranks as Dorn. In a little more than 1,000 professional plate appearances, Dornís career line is a sweet .297/.387/.528, including a .277/.367/.539 showing last year with Double-A Chattanooga. Dorn, 24, surprised some in the Southern League with the way he hit, particularly in the second half, shortening his swing and pulling the ball with more authority. The concerns about about the lefty-hitting Dorn are whether he can replicate his offensive success at higher levels, his lack of physical projection and his defense, which limits him to left field or first base. Heís also battled some physical ailments with his leg and shoulder, but heís already come farther than many expected in 2006.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=2159

BRM
02-03-2009, 03:08 PM
I'd still like to know why he didn't get an invite to Spring Training. It's not like the Reds are busting at the seams with quality corner outfielders.

RedEye
02-03-2009, 09:56 PM
So what type of player does this guy project as in the majors? Realistically? Are we talking a Kevin Millar type hitter? Or a Gabe Kapler? Or Matt Stairs? Or Lew Ford? These are just random names I'm throwing out here... anyone have an idea?

mth123
02-03-2009, 10:01 PM
So what type of player does this guy project as in the majors? Realistically? Are we talking a Kevin Millar type hitter? Or a Gabe Kapler? Or Matt Stairs? Or Lew Ford? These are just random names I'm throwing out here... anyone have an idea?

I think Matt Stairs is a good comp.

dougdirt
02-03-2009, 10:29 PM
So what type of player does this guy project as in the majors? Realistically? Are we talking a Kevin Millar type hitter? Or a Gabe Kapler? Or Matt Stairs? Or Lew Ford? These are just random names I'm throwing out here... anyone have an idea?

A good one I have heard is Luke Scott.

OnBaseMachine
02-03-2009, 11:10 PM
A good one I have heard is Luke Scott.

I like that comp.

Luke Scott - minor league career:

.280/.363/.534 - .897 OPS

Danny Dorn - minor league career:

.297/.387/.528 - .915 OPS

Scott was always older than the competition while Dorn roughly the average age. Both have similar offensive skills sets - good on-base skills and very good power.

Brad Hawpe and Matt Joyce are others that come to mind when I think of Dorn.

gedred69
02-03-2009, 11:22 PM
I love this!! Dorn getting some respect! I talked to Doc on the radio, and when I threw Dorn in, he said, "Huh"? Then after I hung up he came back on the air with Dorn's stats and said, "How come we didn't know about this guy"? He's the only Reds Minor Leaguer ready to hit at GABP. Eh, Doug?

dougdirt
02-03-2009, 11:25 PM
I love this!! Dorn getting some respect! I talked to Doc on the radio, and when I threw Dorn in, he said, "Huh"? Then after I hung up he came back on the air with Dorn's stats and said, "How come we didn't know about this guy"? He's the only Reds Minor Leaguer ready to hit at GABP. Eh, Doug?

'How come we didn't know about this guy'?

Probably because you don't do your homework Doc.

RED VAN HOT
02-03-2009, 11:34 PM
It seems to me that lower round picks have to prove themselves to a far greater extent than the higher picks. They must produce sufficiently to overcome the perception of having a limited ceiling. If a high pick had put up Dorn's numbers he would have received an invite to ST. To some extent the limited success of lower round picks is in part a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Highlifeman21
02-03-2009, 11:50 PM
I'd still like to know why he didn't get an invite to Spring Training. It's not like the Reds are busting at the seams with quality corner outfielders.

... b/c Danny Dorn doesn't fit the "fringe" or "depth" definition

osuceltic
02-04-2009, 10:44 AM
It seems to me that lower round picks have to prove themselves to a far greater extent than the higher picks. They must produce sufficiently to overcome the perception of having a limited ceiling. If a high pick had put up Dorn's numbers he would have received an invite to ST. To some extent the limited success of lower round picks is in part a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I don't disagree, but minor league numbers are only part of the equation. Brandon Larson put up some good minor league numbers. Scouts are pretty good at identifying AAAA types. They see holes in the swings that don't get exposed in the minors. I'm not saying that's the case with Dorn, but it's worth keeping in mind.

TRF
02-04-2009, 11:01 AM
I don't disagree, but minor league numbers are only part of the equation. Brandon Larson put up some good minor league numbers. Scouts are pretty good at identifying AAAA types. They see holes in the swings that don't get exposed in the minors. I'm not saying that's the case with Dorn, but it's worth keeping in mind.

No. He didn't.

Larson was old for every level he "dominated". He was crushing AAA at age 26. At age 24, Larson was posting an .803 OPS at AA, and a .852 OPS in 17 games at AAA. Usually heavy SLG and weaker OBP's too. .346 minor league OBP lifetime.

Dorn should start the year at AAA at 24 years old.

I thought Dorn was the gem of the 2006 draft. Offensively he's out performed every other Red drafted in 2006, and was the best offensive player on his team every year he wasn't a teammate with Jay Bruce.

I think once he gets the call (July?) he'll be the Reds LF for 7-8 years.

dunner13
02-04-2009, 11:21 AM
If dorn takes left this year, stubbs center this year or next and bruce right then why do we need to go get abreu or dye? Just wait for these guys to develop and some our money for somewhere else.

OnBaseMachine
02-04-2009, 11:46 AM
More late-round finds:

Chris Dickerson, cf, Reds: Dickerson played three years at UNLV, where he hit .243/.378/.373 in 50 games during his junior year. Though scouts liked Dickersonís athleticism, his ability to translate that into big league hitting skills dropped him to the 16th round in 2003. After debuting his draft year in Rookie-level Billings, Dickerson spent four years in full-season ball before his big 2008 campaign in which he hit .287/.384/.479 in 97 games for Triple-A Louisville. His brief major league cameo was just as impressive, as the 26-year-old hit .304/.413/.608 in 31 games. Dickerson cut his strikeout rate slightly last year in his second tour of Triple-A, but heís still a strikeout-heavy player. Given that Dickerson turns 27 in April, he might not have too many good years ahead of him, but he should be a big league contributor in some way.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=2194

medford
02-04-2009, 12:38 PM
speaking of Doc, which Doc are you talking about Paul Daugherty (did I misspell that?) or Doc Rogers???

The reason I ask, was I was once heading to Lowes, listening to extra innings w/ Doc Rogers. The talk of the future came up, when somebody threw out the name Stubbs, and somebody else that we're all familar with. Doc Rogers had no idea who Stubbs was. I sat there shocked/dissapointed that the host of Extra Innings would have no idea who the reds top draft pick just a few years earlier was. The other guy might have been Daryl Thompson, or something along those lines. A little more forgivable, but someone hosting extra innings should have at least recognized the name.

If its Daugherty, then I understand why he wouldn't know much about Danny Dorn. While it wouldn't hurt to know more about the reds minor leagues, I doubt he gets many calls about it, other than the top level stars like Bailey, Bruce, etc..

Nasty_Boy
02-04-2009, 11:52 PM
I love this!! Dorn getting some respect! I talked to Doc on the radio, and when I threw Dorn in, he said, "Huh"? Then after I hung up he came back on the air with Dorn's stats and said, "How come we didn't know about this guy"? He's the only Reds Minor Leaguer ready to hit at GABP. Eh, Doug?

What's sad about this is a guy like Doc is who most of the Joe Schmoe fans out there get their information. I am amazed at how little he actually knows about baseball, and in his column's he seems to want to point out chemistry and couches as the reason for the Reds recent woes.

camisadelgolf
02-05-2009, 03:01 AM
I talked to Doc a few times. I got the impression that he doesn't even like baseball, but he absolutely loves golf.

OnBaseMachine
02-05-2009, 12:46 PM
Another potential late-round steal:

Daryl Thompson, rhp, Reds: Thompson looked untouchable through his first six starts with Double-A Chattanooga last year. In that stretch, Thompson allowed just three earned runs in 37 1/3 innings (and never more than one earned run in a start), posting a 0.72 ERA with a 42-5 K-BB mark. After four more starts, Thompson moved up to Triple-A Louisville (2.76 ERA, 33-9 K-BB in 45 2/3 innings) and then to the big league club for three starts. Thompson reached the big leagues five years after the Montreal Expos drafted him out of high school in 2003 and two years after the franchise traded him to the Reds. Thompson has an explosive 91-94 mph fastball, an athletic delivery, a solid (though inconsistent) changeup and he mixes his pitch sequences well, but he doesnít have a true out pitch and carries an extensive history of shoulder problems. If he doesnít have the durability or the effectiveness to be a starter, he could fit into a bullpen role, where his fastball might even play up a tick or two.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=2223

gedred69
02-05-2009, 09:48 PM
speaking of Doc, which Doc are you talking about Paul Daugherty (did I misspell that?) or Doc Rogers???

The reason I ask, was I was once heading to Lowes, listening to extra innings w/ Doc Rogers. The talk of the future came up, when somebody threw out the name Stubbs, and somebody else that we're all familar with. Doc Rogers had no idea who Stubbs was. I sat there shocked/dissapointed that the host of Extra Innings would have no idea who the reds top draft pick just a few years earlier was. The other guy might have been Daryl Thompson, or something along those lines. A little more forgivable, but someone hosting extra innings should have at least recognized the name.

If its Daugherty, then I understand why he wouldn't know much about Danny Dorn. While it wouldn't hurt to know more about the reds minor leagues, I doubt he gets many calls about it, other than the top level stars like Bailey, Bruce, etc..

Understood, and true. I was referring to a call I made recently, to Daugherty.
He sounded truly amazed when he looked at Dorn's stats. For a guy to be on the radio regularly and not have an eye on what's in the Reds Minor Leagues is to me at least, troubling.

Kingspoint
02-12-2009, 06:51 PM
I'd still like to know why he didn't get an invite to Spring Training. It's not like the Reds are busting at the seams with quality corner outfielders.


No kidding. Dorn could easily earn a callup with a fast start. Why waste Spring at-bats on players like Gomes when they could be given to Dorn?

bubbachunk
02-12-2009, 08:07 PM
I talked to Doc a few times. I got the impression that he doesn't even like baseball, but he absolutely loves golf.

I generally think he is fairly worthless as a sportswriter. He gives uneducated biased articles that only make him look bad.

jojo
02-13-2009, 07:39 AM
No kidding. Dorn could easily earn a callup with a fast start. Why waste Spring at-bats on players like Gomes when they could be given to Dorn?

Meld Gomes with Dorn and you might have a decent DH.

BRM
02-13-2009, 10:23 AM
Meld Gomes with Dorn and you might have a decent DH.

Is Dorn really that bad with the leather?

OnBaseMachine
02-13-2009, 12:04 PM
Is Dorn really that bad with the leather?

No. The people on here who have seen him play says he's average or slightly below.

BRM
02-13-2009, 12:08 PM
No. The people on here who have seen him play says he's average or slightly below.

That's what I thought. I'd love to see him force the issue this year by tearing up the International League.

jojo
02-13-2009, 12:09 PM
Is Dorn really that bad with the leather?

He's not good.

OnBaseMachine
02-13-2009, 12:09 PM
That's what I thought. I'd love to see him force the issue this year by tearing up the International League.

Me too. I'm still shocked that he didn't receive a Spring Training invite.

OnBaseMachine
02-13-2009, 12:10 PM
He's not good.

He's not awful either. He's roughly average or a little below. He'll never be confused for a Gold Glove winner but I don't think he'll be a liability either.

I borrowed this from Doug's site. This guy attended a few Chattanooga games last summer and posted his observations over on Doug's site. Here's what he had to say about Danny Dorn:

What I heard about Danny was that he was all bat and below average defender. Let me tell you that at this moment, Danny Dorn is a better outfielder than Dunn ever will be. The first game of the series, Danny made two superb running catches down the line in left, the second of which he laid out for. In another game he cut off a ball down the line and made an off balance throw to 2nd, nearly making an out of what normally is a standing double. The guy can flat out play. As for hitting, 2 of his 3 homers were well over 400 feet as they flew out just right of center field. Those two balls were out of any park in the majors. From my view he has as good a chance as any to make an impact at the Major League level.

http://redsminorleagues.com/blog/category/danny-dorn/

jojo
02-13-2009, 12:30 PM
He's not awful. He's roughly average or slightly below.

Blah arm and no range.....he's not even a lock to be an outfielder. He'll have negative defensive value and he'll get killed by lefties.

The question with him is will he hit major league righties well enough to be an everyday player. He'll have to mash them.

OnBaseMachine
02-13-2009, 12:37 PM
The question with him is will he hit major league righties well enough to be an everyday player. He'll have to mash them.

Baseball America compares him to Luke Scott which is a very fair comparison. Brad Hawpe and Matt Joyce are other comparisons I like.

Mashes RHP and doesn't kill ya defensively ... I'll take it.

jojo
02-13-2009, 01:30 PM
Baseball America compares him to Luke Scott which is a very fair comparison. Brad Hawpe and Matt Joyce are other comparisons I like.

Mashes RHP and doesn't kill ya defensively ... I'll take it.

Luke Scott and Matt Joyce have significant defensive value which helps mitigate platoon deficiencies.

Dorn is not a rangeful, webgemmer like a previous quote suggested.

Dorn very well may play defense like Hawpe-it's probably a good comp. Like I said earlier, the question is will he hit major league righties like Hawpe does because that's what he'll have to do. Even then, you're only looking at a roughly league average regular at best. That's Dorn's ceiling.

I hope he does become that guy.

gedred69
02-13-2009, 09:40 PM
Didn't bother to recall the stats, but on an earlier thread someone cited #'s that indicated, while Dorn's power numbers dropped against LH pitching, he still got on base at a respectable clip. On his fielding, last year I asked Doug what the line was on Dorn's glove, and he responded while Dorn wasn't great, he would be a definate upgrade over Dunn. BTW, the leg injury that was mentioned in the article was the result of an attempt to slide to catch a ball hit in "tweener" area, and he gashed himself on his cleats. 21 sutures if I remember, out a month +. (Surely slowed his rise in the system). The shoulder injury is old, (College days), and is the reason he slipped so far in the Draft...................