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OnBaseMachine
02-06-2009, 04:26 PM
Baseball America has new stuff out today related to the 2009 draft including the top 100 college and high school prospects.

The Reds hold the number eight overall pick in the draft and they also have a supplemental first-round pick somewhere between #41-50. With the #8 overall pick, I'm quite intrigued by the plethora of college pitching. The top two talents are Stephen Strasburg (RHP) and Grant Green (SS) and both figure to go 1-2. After them, Alex White and Kyle Gibson interest me the most. White will most likely be gone by the time the Reds pick, but Gibson should still be around. He's already got great stuff but some say he's got the most projection left of any college starter. His lanky frame should allow him to fill out and add another 2-3 mph to his already plus velocity.

The top high school talents are Donovan Tate (CF) and the two left handed starters Tyler Matzek and Matt Purke. I prefer Gibson to the HS lefties, but if the top college arms are off the board then I'd consider Matzek or Purke. Tate is very intriguing. He's a 5-tool center fielder with big potential. I'd love to have him but he's a Georgia boy and the Braves own the #7 pick. Expect this to be similar to 2007 when the Braves picked one spot ahead of the Reds and grabbed Georgian Jason Heyward.

A kid I'm hoping will be around when the Reds pick in the supplemental round is Jiovanni Mier, a high school shortstop from California. He's rated as the best defensive high school shortstop in the draft and he's got the tools to be a good hitter. I'd be thrilled if the Reds could come away with a Kyle Gibson/Alex White/Donovan Tate at #8 and then Jiovanni Mier in the supplemental round.

redsfandan
02-06-2009, 05:00 PM
... I'd be thrilled if the Reds could come away with a Kyle Gibson/Alex White/Donovan Tate at #8 and then Jiovanni Mier in the supplemental round.

I like the sound of that. We have the 8th pick in the 2nd round too don't we? So could our first three picks possibly be:
8th
41st-50th &
60th-70th?

Mario-Rijo
02-06-2009, 07:24 PM
I'm still in on these 2 guys, wish I knew there was chat I would have asked about them.

LeMahieu is the #11 overall college player, and Maddox the #18 overall HS player. Oddly enough though Maddox is the #34 overall prospect and D.J. #35.


11. D.J. LeMahieu SS So. R-R 6-4 193 Louisiana State Drafted Tigers '07 (41)


18. Austin Maddox C R-R 6-2 220 Eagle's View Academy, Jacksonville Florida Commit

Either would be a wonderful sandwich rd pick. I also like J. Mier but would prefer LeMahieu. In the 1st I really like Matzek, the big HS LH along with Ackley (for CF) and Tate. That's all assuming something crazy doesn't happen like Strasburg, Green, White falling.

Superdude
02-06-2009, 10:03 PM
Not to turn this into another "best player available argument", but I'd love to see a sweet pitcher fall into our lap at #8.

LoganBuck
02-06-2009, 10:22 PM
They need the college arm. The need a kid who will be ready when Arroyo and Harang's deals are up.

HokieRed
02-06-2009, 11:10 PM
I'm really indifferent over a good arm or an SS, if there's one you're really sure is going to be an above average player at the position. If you don't develop one of those from within, you're going to have to burn a good starter or the equivalent money anyway to acquire one either through trade or free agency.

edabbs44
02-07-2009, 12:49 AM
They need the college arm. The need a kid who will be ready when Arroyo and Harang's deals are up.

I am down for this.

Mario-Rijo
02-07-2009, 02:02 AM
Not to turn this into another "best player available argument", but I'd love to see a sweet pitcher fall into our lap at #8.

I'd say it's way more likely to be a pitcher than anything at this point. There is very few positional players in the top 10-12. BA has 3 in their top 14 players and all 3 are more likely to be gone than not, 2 of them Green & Ackley almost assuredly, Tate (HS OF/CFB commit) being the 3rd. I'd say to expect anything other than a pitcher at #8 is a fruitless exercise.

All LHP's denoted *

Top pitchers College:
Steven Strasburg 6-5 Jr RHP SDSU
Alex White 6-3 Jr. RHP NC
Aaron Crow 6-2 RHP (Re-entry) Ft. Worth Cats
Mike Minor 6-4 Jr. *LHP Vandy
Kendal Volz 6-4 Jr. RHP Baylor
Kyle Gibson 6-6 Jr. RHP Mizzo

Top pitchers HS:
Tyler Matzek 6-3 *LHP Capistrano Valley HS Mission Viejo Ca.
Matt Purke 6-3 *LHP Klein HS Tx
Shelby Miller 6-3 RHP Brownwood HS Tx
Jacob Turner 6-4 RHP Wesminster Christian Aca. St. Louis
Zack Wheeler 6-4 RHP East Paulding HS Dallas, Ga.

icehole3
02-07-2009, 06:55 AM
Im hoping with the Reds top 5 picks they pick the best pitchers available, thats what I'd like to see, guys who are starters that throw very hard.

Topcat
02-07-2009, 07:45 AM
Im hoping with the Reds top 5 picks they pick the best pitchers available, thats what I'd like to see, guys who are starters that throw very hard.


I second that if you have arms a plenty you can acquire any other position.:thumbup:

BuckeyeRedleg
02-07-2009, 09:34 AM
They need the college arm. The need a kid who will be ready when Arroyo and Harang's deals are up.

Agree. Aaron Crow would be a good pick.

HokieRed
02-07-2009, 10:34 AM
McMillan, Cardenas, Concepcion, Larkin. None acquired; all from within.

corkedbat
02-07-2009, 01:51 PM
I'd like to see the select 7 or 8 HS & College SSs throughout the draft in 09 (as long as they're worthy of the picks). Maybe even take a gamble on a kid later in the draft with signability questions. If there's another foray into theLatin market, similar to this past year, maybe there's a worthy SS. Davey's still a bit of a god in the region(especially in Venezuela). If there is a target down there, he might be able to help "recruit " them.

Shortstops are usually among the best athletes on both HS & College squads so you hope that you get at least 3 or 4 good ones to re-stock the system at the position. The nice thing about SS is you can usually convert the others elsewhere, INF, OF and because the position usually requires solid arm strength, even pitcher.

I agree with others though that say we really need to grow them from within because the apparent cost in talent now to land a good major league-ready one is prohibitive.

corkedbat
02-07-2009, 02:01 PM
McMillan, Cardenas, Concepcion, Larkin. None acquired; all from within.

You forgot Castro. :D

dougdirt
02-07-2009, 02:21 PM
Aaron Crow's mechanics frighten me.

11larkin11
02-07-2009, 03:07 PM
I hope this doesn't turn into another Crow thread, but I still wouldn't be upset if we picked him up. I want Gibson as my number one, who i think will be there, though.

M2
02-07-2009, 04:00 PM
If a few pitchers and prep players have big years, Dustin Ackley might slip a bit.

OnBaseMachine
02-07-2009, 04:11 PM
If a few pitchers and prep players have big years, Dustin Ackley might slip a bit.

If he shows he can play defense in center field then I'd have major interest. I don't like him as much at first base.

Mario-Rijo
02-07-2009, 04:22 PM
If he shows he can play defense in center field then I'd have major interest. I don't like him as much at first base.

I agree a hitting machine in CF sign me up.

dougdirt
02-07-2009, 04:40 PM
If a few pitchers and prep players have big years, Dustin Ackley might slip a bit.

If Ackley doesn't show some power he might slip a bit....

redhawk61
02-07-2009, 06:11 PM
Top 5 High Schoolers via Saber Scouting http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/07/16/hshot30top5/

Tyler Matzek LHP
Matzek was relatively little known entering showcase season, but has been at every major event and has been the biggest riser, as most of our top 10-15 were known elite players before their showcase performances.

Baseball America’s Dave Perkin compared Matzek to the Royals sandwich pick (36th overall) in the recent 2008 draft, Mike Montgomery, and Perkin is certainly onto something there, with a lot of similarities between these two projectable, three-pitch, southern California lefties. That being said, Matzek is this high on the list (and at the top of some insider’s lists) because he has a notch better stuff, with three pitches that project for above-average, without lacking command or projectability.

Matzek works at 89-92, touching 94 with a heavy fastball and mixing in a knockout mid-70s curveball. His curveball is a two-plane bender that is regularly above-average now with a chance to be a plus pitch. He also mixes in solid slider and shows feel for a changeup that flashes above-average.

He’s projectable and athletic with a clean arm and simple delivery, throwing from a classic high 3/4 arm angle. That allows Matzek to work both sides of the plate effectively, pounding the zone with advanced feel. He’s got four pitches and command that project for average or better; there’s just a lot to like. One insider said Matzek reminded him of another lefty: the 4th overall pick of the 2008 draft, former U. San Diego hurler and Orioles draftee, Brian Matusz.

One scout that saw Matzek at the Perfect Game National showcase in Minneapolis said, “if his breaking ball develops like you hope, he could be Clayton Kershaw.” That might sound a bit optimistic, and that I’m using too many comparisons, but considering how under-the-radar Kershaw was entering his senior year, it doesn’t seem so far-fetched

Austin Maddox C
I’ve talked about Maddox a few times on the site, both in the 2009 draft preview on the podcast (near the end) and in a review of the Sarasota Classic. I’ve been able to see Maddox a handful of times during his junior season, including seeing his team win the state championship in Sarasota, and he brings his full toolbox to the yard every time out. I also have some video I’ll post soon.

Maddox’s stance (check the above picture for an idea) and swing are reminiscent of Mark McGwire due to his powerful, leveraged, yet compact right-handed stroke with serious bat speed. Maddox just squares balls up, hitting over .500 this year against top competition, and has flashed his plus-plus raw power in every game I’ve seen him play. The scouting community, who largely ignore juniors during the regular season, saw this power when Maddox hit multiple homers over 400 feet with wood bats in recent national showcases.

That being said, Maddox is the top position player on this list because of his defensive tools. He consistently uses his plus-plus howitzer to register pop times under 1.85 and has been under 1.80, while hitting 95 on the mound. He also has what I, and a few scouts I’ve talked to, feel is already big league average receiving and blocking skills. Maddox is also a hard worker that gets high marks for his makeup; he’s committed to Florida.

The only real question with Maddox is if his already extra-large frame will be able to stay agile enough to remain behind the plate. Some may knock his team’s schedule, as they are in the smallest classification (1A) in the state and play some cream puff teams, but intentionally schedule almost every other game against top competition, and Maddox is a showcase veteran that can hit with wood. A scout familiar with Maddox sums it up: “We have him as a top follow and I see a Mike Piazza package, except with a cannon behind the plate.”

Matt Purke
As you might expect from a top player on this list, Purke has all the classic things you look for in a pitching prospect. He’s the next in a seemingly never-ending line of physical, aggressive power arms from the Lonestar State, hitting 94 in a recent showcase.

Working with a clean arm and near effortless delivery from a 3/4 arm angle, Purke pounds the zone with three solid pitches, good command, and an aggressive approach. He owns a present solid-average fastball that sits at 90-92 with some late life, but has hit 94 and projects to add a few ticks as his slim frame bulks up. Purke throws a two-plane slider with good tilt and late bite to gets funny swings from high school hitters now, and projects as an out-pitch. He also mixes in a solid changeup, though only sparingly as he relies heavily on his fastball/slider combination.

As for the downside, like many young power pitchers, he can lose his mechanics at times, and like many frequent showcase attendees, his velocity, breaking ball, and feel can vary from appearance to appearancde due to fatigue; but that’s about all.

Those aren’t huge concerns, and clearly doesn’t effect scouts perception of him: “He’s a projectable, velocity left-hander with a hard slider and just blows hitters away at these showcases. I’m a big fan.”

It’s easy to slap a Scott Kazmir comparison on him, given the similarities (skinny Texas prep lefty with a power fastball-slider combo), but Kazmir was a dominating showcase legend that Purke hasn’t yet proven to be, though he has shown flashes and is the class of this year’s pitching crop along with Matzek.

Donavan Tate CF
If you’re reading about the draft this early, you like tools, and if you want a suggestion for a new James Bond villain, let me suggest Donavan Tate as Tools Galore. He compares favorably to the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, the Twins’ Aaron Hicks, as a centerfielder, both for his pros and cons.

Tate is the son of former NFL running back Lars Tate and is a top football recruit, with Rivals.com ranking him as the 86th best recruit in the nation. To get an idea of his athleticism, Rivals lists Tate as an “athlete” for football purposes (no set projected college position, generally the most athletic guys on the field) and among the “athletes,” (again, the most athletic football players in the country), Tate was named the most athletic.

Tate uses his plus-plus arm (hit 95 from the outfield—that’s with no mound involved) and true 80 speed (6.3 to 6.4 in the 60-yard) to quarterback his high school team, and uses his 6′3, 200 frame to deliver big hits as a safety. Michigan and Georgia want him as a QB, while USC and Florida like him as a safety. So, he’s got a little bit of talent.

As far as baseball-specific skills, his speed and arm obviously play in center where he’s a developing defender that should be plus or more as a center fielder in time. Tate shows plus raw power and squares pitches up consistently when he makes contact.

The problem, as with the aforementioned Hicks, is if he will make enough contact, as Tate has rough plate discipline. In showcases, Tate produces, but not without some cause for concern. To put some numbers behind this general scouting consensus, BA’s Matt Blood reports that Tate slugged two HRs, a triple, and two doubles in 19 at-bats at the Tournament of Stars, but struck out six times with only one walk. Blood adds that one day, Tate made contact on seven of ten swings, while the next day he whiffed on six of seven swings.

That performance makes for an impressive line of .316/.350/.842, considering Tate is a high school junior using wood bats against top pitching; but almost any toolshed first-round bust has put up that kind of performance, so what did we really learn? Tate’s hitability will be a situation to monitor throughout the spring, but it will be something you can only learn about after talking to multiple scouts or after multiple viewings, and even then it will likely be heavily debated within each organization. Let the debate begin.


Jacob Turner RHP
Turner has been on the radar screen for some time as a top arm for the 2009 draft, as a proven showcase veteran, and he did nothing to change that standing in the recent national showcases.

Owner of a prototypical power right-hander’s frame, Turner attacks hitters with three solid pitches, including a 90-94 mph fastball with solid sink. Turner’s velocity comes from a high 3/4 arm angle, and sneaks up on hitters due to a compact delivery and easy arm action.

Turner follows his above-average fastball with an above-average overhand curveball that can get slurvy with two-plane break. He also mixes in a solid changeup that shows some potential along with an aggressive approach to pitching, and solid command, made possible by Turner’s easy delivery.

There are a fair amount of scouts on the Jacob Turner bandwagon, as his lower-risk profile and outstanding showcase performances have some putting him ahead of Purke and even Matzek.

There’s also definite symmetry between Turner and the 2008 draft’s top Missouri prep arm, Tim Melville. Both are big-framed right-handers with three quality pitches, good feel, and a chance to be above-average to plus across the board. Melville is a little more projectable and athletic, but they have similar stuff, command, and lengthy showcase track records

redhawk61
02-07-2009, 06:22 PM
High School Prospects 6-30 +2:
http://www.saberscouting.com/2009draftindex/

6. Max Stassi, C
School & Hometown: Yuba City HS; Yuba City, CA
Specs: 5′10, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: A polished, all-around backstop that lacks the frame and power scouts look for behind the plate, but shows solid gap pop, an above-average bat, and is an above-average defender with a plus arm. Stassi has really raised his profile on the showcase circuit into a legitimate top 2 rounder. UCLA commit.


7. Mychal Givens, RHP/SS
School & Hometown: Plant HS; Tampa, FL
Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Scouting Report: You can take a look at some video I took of Givens, what I thought of him from my first two looks, and my full thoughts from the initial Hot 30 rankings. Givens is an athletic and heady leader, a very good defender, and has a solid stroke with a little pop. I didn’t see enough size/projection (looks in person like 5′10, 175), power, or consistent hitability to project him as a first round pick, but realized that his track record, makeup, and performance give him upward mobility on draft boards. At the PG National showcase, he was up to 94 while flashing an above-average slider and changeup from a low 3/4 arm angle; similar to what I saw, but showing improvement across the board. As it stands now, there’s a slight lean from the people I’ve talked to for Givens to stay on the mound, but his progess on the mound and at the plate should be an interesting draft storyline to monitor.

8. Luke Bailey, C
School & Hometown: Troup HS; LaGrange, GA
Specs: 6′0, 195, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Yet another big-time prep catcher has huge raw power, solid receiving skills, and an above-average arm. Bailey is ranked lower than Maddox and Stassi because doesn’t have the same kind of hitability, but he’s in the discussion as the best in a very deep crop of catchers.

9. Zach Wheeler, RHP
School & Hometown: East Paulding HS; Dallas, GA
Specs: 6′4, 180, Bats S, Throws R
Skinny: Pitched at 90-93 at the PG National Showcase and showed good command of three pitches. As the height/weight suggests, Wheeler has a good amount of projection left, and with good stuff, good command, and an easy motion, he has all the makings of a top prospect.

10. LeVon Washington, CF/2B
School & Hometown: Buchholz HS; Gainesville, FL
Specs: 5′10, 170, Bats L, Throws R
Skinny: Washington put up a 6.21 60-yard in front of hundreds of top-level eyeballs at the PG National Showcase and I pause to call his speed 80 because he’s a full grade or two off the scale. Split the difference and call it 85 speed. He’s polished on the basepaths but a little raw in the field and at the plate with solid pop, but Washington’s wheels cover a multitude of sins, both on offense and defense. He plays shortstop for his high school team and has an above-average arm, but he’s normally a centerfielder at showcases and has tried his hand at second base as well, which elicits obvious Luis Castillo comparisons. Check out a recent BA profile for more about Washington. Florida commit.

11. Chad Thompson, RHP
School & Hometown: El Toro HS; Trabuco Canyon, CA
Specs: 6′8, 215, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: The position and height tells most of the story here, as Thompson is a towering right-hander with good downward plane that has hit 94. He’s still raw, but has a clean arm and smooth delivery; if he can clean up the secondary pitches and command, he should shoot up draft boards.

12. Chris Jenkins, RHP
School & Hometown: Westfield HS; Westfield, NJ
Specs: 6′7, 225, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Our next towering right-hander hails from New Jersey and has showed some dirty stuff at times. He obviously has the body and downward plane scouts are looking for and was up to 97 last spring and has topped out at 94 on the showcase circuit. He shows a hard slider that could be an out-pitch and has a clean arm, but his stuff varies from appearance to appearance and one insider said that he’s the, “worst athlete I’ve ever seen.” That being said, bigger guys take longer to come around and Jenkins could really take a step forward in the spring.

13. Bobby Borchering, 3B
School & Hometown: Bishop Verot HS; Alva, FL
Specs: 6′4, 190, Bats B, Throws R
Skinny: Borchering has also been covered on SaberScouting in the past and has an intriguing set of tools and projection. He currently plays third base and has an above-average arm, but Borchering’s frame has a lot of projection left and that may ultimately force a move to first base as he fills out. He profiles well there, as he’s got a smooth swing from both sides with advanced hitability from both sides, plus power that already shows up in games, a showcase track record, and solid athleticism. Florida commit.

14. Jonathan Singleton, 1B
School & Hometown: Millikan HS; Long Beach, CA
Specs: 6′2, 220, Bats L, Throws L
Skinny: Singleton is a big, left-handed, power-hitting first baseman that put on a show at the PG National Showcase HR Derby, winning he contest while hitting a number of balls in the upper deck at the MetroDome. Singleton has also shown some solid hitability and athleticism, but make no mistake; his lefty power is his calling card and his meal ticket.

15. David Nick, SS
School & Hometown: Cypress HS; Cypress, CA
Specs: 6′2, 175, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Nick isn’t a toolbox like many highly-regarded prep shortstops, he’s more of a solid all-around player with polish, but he’s got some upside too. From a projectable 6′2 frame, Nick shows a very good bat with gap power and high-level defense. Scouts love his makeup, all-out style, and how the game comes easily to him. UCLA commit.

16. Jacob Morris, CF
School & Hometown: Coppell HS; Coppell, TX
Specs: 6′3, 195, Bats B, Throws R
Skinny: Morris is a tooled-up switch-hitter ones scout called an, “antelope,” that can play anywhere on the field, but that has kept him from finding a defensive home. He has the potential to be ranked higher come next June if he can show a better approach, as he struggled to make contact, particularly from the left side, on the showcase circuit. It appears his plus tools will play the best, and quickest, in center field, as a sort of poor man’s Donavan Tate.

17. Andrew Susac, C
School & Hometown: Jesuit HS; Roseville, CA
Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Susac heads up the second tier of what is shaping up to be an outstanding prep catching class. He has shown an above-average arm and at least average defense along with above-average raw power, a package that many piqued the interest of many scouts. Susac also shows an ability to hit with wood against elite pitching, but his bat lacks polish and he lacks the big-time tools of the backstops ahead of him. He projects as a top three rounds prospect. Oregon State commit.

18. Scooter Gennett, SS/RHP
School & Hometown: Sarasota HS; Sarasota, FL
Specs: 5′10, 170, Bats L, Throws R
Skinny: Gennett is the heir apparent to Casey Kelly’s spot as starting shortstop and ace for the powerhouse Sarasota Sailors. Gennett has three pitches he can throw for strikes including a low 90’s fastball but has a future as a hitter in the middle of the diamond. It’s not clear yet if he’s a long-term shortstop, second base, or center fielder, but his tools will play almost anywhere. Scooter (his given name is Ryan) swings a mean left-handed bat with surprising pull power for his size and a solid approach. He has good makeup and all-around baseball instincts with quick feet and an above-average arm. Florida State commit.

19. Jacob Marisnick, CF
School & Hometown: Riverside Poly HS; Riverside, CA
Specs: 6′4, 200, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Marisnick is a big athlete from southern California with some serious tools that is still rough around the edges. He has above-average speed in a 6′4, 200 pound frame that can play in center field for now with an above-average arm. His bat from the right side impresses at times and his power approach is projectable as an above-average big league regular and first round pick if his hitability and pitch selection can progress. Scouts dream on his projectable, near ideal frame and also on his flashes of big power and hitability in BP sessions.

20. Keyvius Sampson, RHP
School & Hometown: Forest HS; Ocala, FL
Specs: 6′1, 180, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Sampson was being touted as an athletic center field prospect during his junior season, but now is being considered primarily as a polished right-hander. Sampson carries himself like a pro and commands his 90-92 mph fastball to both sides of the plate. He also has a particularly smooth delivery with easy velocity and plus athleticism. Sampson’s secondary stuff and size come up a little short and that limits his upside, but he’s got just about everything else going for him.

21. Matthew Moynihan, CF
School & Hometown: Cathedral Catholic HS; San Diego, CA
Specs: 6′2, 205, Bats L, Throws, R
Skinny: Moynihan frequently gets comparisons to fellow SoCal toolsy outfielder Jacob Marisnick for their centerfield tools and wide skillset. Moynihan is a plus runner and above-average defender in center with an average arm. He also swings a solid, consistent bat from the left side and his strong, 6′2, 205 pound frame figures to show more game power in time.

22. Brooks Pounders, 1B/RHP
School & Hometown: Temecula Valley HS; Temecula, CA
Specs: 6′5, 220, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Pounders is a well-known two-way prospect with pro potential as both a hitter and pitcher. On the mound, he’s been working from 88-92 with an above-average slider and curve. As a hitter, he has dropped some serious bombs on the showcase circuit in the past few months. While he’s athletic for his size, Pounders’ body is a little soft, he lacks some feel on the mound, and can get pull-happy at the plate. Scouts tend to prefer his power bat over his solid stuff on the mound. Southern Cal commit.

23. Daniel Tuttle, RHP
School & Hometown: Randleman HS; Randleman, NC
Specs: 6′2, 185, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Tuttle is another solid right-handed pitching prospect that has impressed scouts during showcase season. He works at 90-92 and has been up to 93 with a clean arm and solid command. Tuttle also uses a quality curveball but has a head tilt that is unconventional and worries some, despite solid mechanics otherwise. Tuttle also has limited height and bulk, but does have projection remaining.

24. Beau Wright, LHP
School & Hometown: Los Alamitos HS; Los Alamitos, CA
Specs: 6′2, 205, Bats L, Throws L
Skinny: Wright is a solid left-hander from southern California that has been blowing away high school hitters at recent showcases with solid stuff and advanced command. Wright works at 89-92 mph with a big-breaking curveball and good feel for his craft. At this level, he doesn’t need much more than that, but he’ll need to continue to make progress to find his way into the top two rounds come June.

25. Mike Zunino, C
School & Hometown: Mariner HS; Cape Coral, FL
Specs: 6′2, 185, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Zunino has been known for some time as a top catching prospect for his advanced catch-and-throw skills and instincts along with his bloodlines: his father is an southern Florida area scout. Many still question Zunino’s long-term hitability, but everyone likes his makeup, showcase track record, professional frame, solid pop, and above-average defensive tools. Florida commit.

26. Matt Davidson, 3B
School & Hometown: Yucaipa HS, Yucaipa, CA
Specs: 6′3, 210, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Davidson is a southern California power/power prospect with 90+ mph velocity on the mound and thump in his bat at a corner position. He has a sturdy, solid frame that creates big power but will limit him to a corner position, possibly catcher. Davidson is a better prospect as a high-ceiling power bat, despite some questions about his general athleticism and present ability to make contact against top competition. Southern Cal commit.

27. Madison Younginer, RHP
School & Hometown: Mauldin HS; Simpsonville, SC
Specs: 6′3, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Younginer is a very projectable right-handed power arm. He’s been working at 91-94, with a hammer curve at 75-78, both above-average offerings when he commands them. That’s the problem, though: Younginer has some trouble harnessing his stuff. His pure stuff, relatively calm mechanics, clean arm action, and projectable frame all bode well for his future.

28. Matt Hobgood, RHP
School & Hometown: Norco HS; Norco, CA
Specs: 6′4, 245, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Hobgood caught scouts’ attention at recent showcases in similar fashion to Younginer: with big stuff and a lack of contol. Hobgood has worked from 91-95, depending on whether he’s working with a power sinker or trying to top out a four-seamer for the radar guns. With either approach, he hasn’t been hitting spots too often and had trouble locating his offspeed pitches. There’s a lack of feel, some effort in the delivery, and some softness in his body, but the pure power stuff and workhorse frame are there.

29. Chad Kettler, 2B/3B
School & Hometown: Coppell HS; Coppell, TX
Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats B, Throws R
Skinny: Kettler is a versatile infielder with an impressive switch-hitting stroke. He plays shortstop currently, but won’t stick there long-term due to below-average speed. Second base is the best profile as he has solid defensive actions and plenty of arm for any position. Kettler’s meal ticket is his hitting ability from both sides, and while he has some pop, his frame limits more than average power. There may be some questions about Kettler’s ultimate position, but he’s on the list because he can hit, he can play the infield, and he’s an instinctual baseball rat.

30. Deven Marrero, SS
School & Hometown: American Heritage HS; Davie, FL
Specs: 6′0, 160, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Marrero is the younger brother of Nationals top prospect and former 1st rounder Chris Marrero. He also plays for 2008 High School National Champions American Heritage High. With that kind of pedigree and background, along with a gamer style and solid makeup, you can see what there is to like about Marrero. That being said, he lacks bulk and doesn’t have a standout bat, along with no more than average speed. He looks to most scouts right now like a good college player with rock solid intangibles. That type of player’s draft fortunes depends on his bonus demands, but he looks a lot like a guy that will go in the top three rounds after a solid three years in college.

Bonus Prospects
Matt Graham, RHP
School & Hometown: Oak Ridge HS; Spring, TX
Specs: 6′3, 195, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Graham was one of the top five prep prospects in this class just a few months ago, as the next star pupil from guru Ron Wolforth’s academy that has already produced Scott Kazmir. Since then, he finished his junior season and pitched in some early showcases and his normal low-to-mid 90’s heater was in the 85-88 mph range and his stuff was down across the board. He doesn’t appear to be hurt, because he’s still pitching and visually looks fine. It may just be dead arm or something he needs to work through, and no one really knows what to make of him right now. If Graham can regain his prior form, he would jump into the top 5.

Richard Stock, C
School & Hometown: Agoura HS; Agoura Hills, CA
Specs: 6′3, 185, Bats L, Throws R
Skinny: Richard is the brother of current USC catcher and former high school showcase legend Robert Stock. Entering the season, much was known about Robert, and almost nothing about Richard. The younger brother has recently come on the scene and has caught some eyes. Accounts on his talent are few and far between at this point, but BA’s Dave Perkin is securely in the optimistic camp. Watch out for him to possibly shoot up this list in short order.

M2
02-07-2009, 10:00 PM
The more I read about Matzek and Purke, the more I'm convinced they aren't dominating enough to warrant a #8 pick. Arms like Porcello and Kazmir worked in the mid-90s with two big breaking pitches. Mind you, a HS arm would have to challenge Strasburg's status as the top overall arm in the draft in order to get me to take him in the top 10 picks.

RED VAN HOT
02-07-2009, 10:56 PM
I'd hate to see the Reds use one of their first three picks on a HS arm. It is a long road to the majors with many pitfalls along the way. A team needs to get at least one ML player out of each draft. Even though I favored Beckham, the Alonso choice last year made sense in that it gave the Reds a player with a strong probability of making the majors. I look for WJ to do that again this year. After the first few picks, a team can better afford to draft high risk/high ceiling players.

lollipopcurve
02-07-2009, 11:03 PM
The more I read about Matzek and Purke, the more I'm convinced they aren't dominating enough to warrant a #8 pick. Arms like Porcello and Kazmir worked in the mid-90s with two big breaking pitches. Mind you, a HS arm would have to challenge Strasburg's status as the top overall arm in the draft in order to get me to take him in the top 10 picks.

Let them have their spring season first. Porcello didn't solidify his status until he'd pitched as a senior. And the comparison to Strasburg is unfair -- arms like his are not in every draft.

Right now I still like Matzek quite a bit. Unsure about Purke. But there's a whole chunk of information about all of these guys that's still missing...

Mario-Rijo
02-08-2009, 02:29 AM
If Ackley doesn't show some power he might slip a bit....

He won't need a lot if he can indeed play CF and per BA (or should say the scouts they spoke to) they seem to be pretty confident he can. He seems to have enough to be better than avg. out there at minimum. And he's another guy who will come fast. But I think they go pitcher 1st round and probably Gibson (RHP) or Minor (LHP).

dougdirt
02-08-2009, 02:33 AM
He won't need a lot if he can indeed play CF and per BA (or should say the scouts they spoke to) they seem to be pretty confident he can. He seems to have enough to be better than avg. out there at minimum. And he's another guy who will come fast. But I think they go pitcher 1st round and probably Gibson.

What makes you think they will go pitcher in the first round?

Mario-Rijo
02-08-2009, 02:38 AM
What makes you think they will go pitcher in the first round?

Just the odds. There may be a couple late risers but I just don't foresee many bats worthy of the #8 pick regardless of what happens between now and then. If Ackley or Tate isn't to their liking (not sure Tate will be) it's pretty much a gaurantee they will go pitcher. Only if maybe Kentrail Davis or LeMaheiu blow up between now and then or some super stud Bruce-like HS prospect rises to #8 will there be any thought for anything else, and I just don't see it happening.

dougdirt
02-08-2009, 04:11 AM
Just the odds. There may be a couple late risers but I just don't foresee many bats worthy of the #8 pick regardless of what happens between now and then. If Ackley or Tate isn't to their liking (not sure Tate will be) it's pretty much a gaurantee they will go pitcher. Only if maybe Kentrail Davis or LeMaheiu blow up between now and then or some super stud Bruce-like HS prospect rises to #8 will there be any thought for anything else, and I just don't see it happening.

Funny things happen between February and June....

Benihana
02-08-2009, 11:31 AM
Funny things happen between February and June....

Exactly. I don't think you can ever make any kind of statement like that about the baseball draft four months in advance. You NEVER know what will happen.

Mario-Rijo
02-08-2009, 12:35 PM
The more I read about Matzek and Purke, the more I'm convinced they aren't dominating enough to warrant a #8 pick. Arms like Porcello and Kazmir worked in the mid-90s with two big breaking pitches. Mind you, a HS arm would have to challenge Strasburg's status as the top overall arm in the draft in order to get me to take him in the top 10 picks.

I disagree Matzek is definitely worthy of the #8 pick. The guy sits 90-93 has good command and movement to it and also has command of 3 other good pitches slider, curve, change. BA rated all 3 as the best HS secondary pitches of anyone. He also has good clean mechanics and an easy delivery. Purke & Turner aren't far behind either. In fact I don't even think he'll be ava. at #8 barring something unforeseen.

My top 8 mock:
#1 - Nats - Strasburg RHP
#2 - M's - White RHP
#3 - Pads - Green SS
#4 - Pitt - Ackley 1B/CF/LF
#5 - O's - Crow RHP
#6 - Giants - K. Davis LF
#7 - Braves - Matzek LHP
#8 - Reds - Jacob Turner RHP

Mario-Rijo
02-08-2009, 12:38 PM
Exactly. I don't think you can ever make any kind of statement like that about the baseball draft four months in advance. You NEVER know what will happen.

True probably getting ahead of myself. But it's too much fun not too.

M2
02-08-2009, 01:02 PM
Let them have their spring season first. Porcello didn't solidify his status until he'd pitched as a senior. And the comparison to Strasburg is unfair -- arms like his are not in every draft.

Right now I still like Matzek quite a bit. Unsure about Purke. But there's a whole chunk of information about all of these guys that's still missing...

I get that the coming baseball season will be of utmost importance here. We all know the draft board will be in for a major reorganization this spring.

Yet I think you're missing my point on HS arms. Unless they are like Strasburg -- e.g. rare arms that you don't find in every draft -- then I'm not burning a top 10 pick on them. Move down to the middle of the first round and I'd start to get interested in a kid like Matzek.

M2
02-08-2009, 01:07 PM
I disagree Matzek is definitely worthy of the #8 pick. The guy sits 90-93 has good command and movement to it and also has command of 3 other good pitches slider, curve, change. BA rated all 3 as the best HS secondary pitches of anyone. He also has good clean mechanics and an easy delivery. Purke & Turner aren't far behind either. In fact I don't even think he'll be ava. at #8 barring something unforeseen

90-93? Yawn.

Command? Hey, Homer Bailey had that.

Good clean mechanics? You mean just like Chris Gruler?

Aside from that, the top-rated HS arm in February usually isn't the top kid in June.

On a side note, the Reds ought to stay away from shortstops from LSU.

OnBaseMachine
02-08-2009, 01:23 PM
I'm very intrigued by Kyle Gibson. His fastball is currently only 90-91 with plus life but he's got a ton of projection remaining. At 6-6 and 195 pounds, he's got plenty of room to fill out and add velocity. Some scouts think he could add as much as five mph to his fastball. He also throws a plus slider and a changeup that needs work. Some scouts compare him to John Lackey. If he's still around at number eight I would strongly consider taking him.

lollipopcurve
02-08-2009, 02:35 PM
Yet I think you're missing my point on HS arms. Unless they are like Strasburg -- e.g. rare arms that you don't find in every draft -- then I'm not burning a top 10 pick on them. Move down to the middle of the first round and I'd start to get interested in a kid like Matzek.

Don't buy it. In recent years we've had Clayton Kershaw and Chris Volstad come out as the #1 HS arms, yet neither was considered to have an otherworldly arm like Strasburg or Beckett. The opportunity to grab the best HS arm is a significant one -- if Matzek remains the #1 guy, it sounds as if he has the polish and the projectability to warrant the choice, in my opinion.

dougdirt
02-08-2009, 02:39 PM
Don't buy it. In recent years we've had Clayton Kershaw and Chris Volstad come out as the #1 HS arms, yet neither was considered to have an otherworldly arm like Strasburg or Beckett. The opportunity to grab the best HS arm is a significant one -- if Matzek remains the #1 guy, it sounds as if he has the polish and the projectability to warrant the choice, in my opinion.

The point is though that M2 wouldn't have drafted them (well, maybe Kershaw) because he doesn't like waiting around for them to develop and hoping they can stay healthy because of the money attached to such a high pick.

I don't buy into his theory on it either, but thats where he is coming from (I think).

M2
02-08-2009, 03:36 PM
Don't buy it. In recent years we've had Clayton Kershaw and Chris Volstad come out as the #1 HS arms, yet neither was considered to have an otherworldly arm like Strasburg or Beckett. The opportunity to grab the best HS arm is a significant one -- if Matzek remains the #1 guy, it sounds as if he has the polish and the projectability to warrant the choice, in my opinion.

Volstad doesn't really fit. He was a #16 pick in 2005. Like I said, middle of the 1st round and I'd start looking at HS arms.

And the Dodgers passed on Lincecum to draft Kershaw. It may have already cost that team a World Series.

Plus, I suspect both of those kids are in for some struggles/setbacks during the next two or three seasons (see Bailey, Homer).

stock
02-08-2009, 05:53 PM
I think it may be a bit early to target specific players. On draft day you target the best player available after the first 7 picks are made. It is safe to say that the board will change in the next four months. If it is a HS player you take him, be it a pitcher or regular.

The Dodgers did pass on Lincecum to take Kershaw. That doesn't mean Kershaw wasn't a great pick. I understand how a Reds fan can cringe when a HS pitcher is taken (see Gruler or Howington). Hopefully Bailey will change that perspective.

The one exception to the best player philosophy could be if the best player available is a college player who plays either corner infield or corner outfield. Between Votto, EdE, Dickerson, Bruce, Francisco, Frazier, Alonzo, Soto and Dorn the Reds may be overstacked at these 4 positions.

lollipopcurve
02-08-2009, 08:03 PM
Volstad doesn't really fit. He was a #16 pick in 2005. Like I said, middle of the 1st round and I'd start looking at HS arms.

But he has performed like a top 10 pick. That's the point.


And the Dodgers passed on Lincecum to draft Kershaw. It may have already cost that team a World Series.

If there's a Lincecum-like college arm available to the Reds at #8 this year, sure, it would be wise to draft him. But the point was that Kershaw has proven to be a top-10 worthy pick, and he was not the "rare" arm you're claiming a HS must be to warrant a look inside the top 10.

I simply don't buy that the top 3-5 college arms plus the top 3-5 college bats plus the top 3-5 HS bats, each one, MUST be a better pick than the top HS arm in a year in which the top HS arm is not a Beckett/Strasberg arm. I don't think the draft works that way.

The top of this draft is shaping up to look like the top of the Lincecum draft, as it looks right now. Lots of college arms, light on bats.

1. Hochevar (college arm)
2. Reynolds (college arm -- has been injured)
3. Longoria
4. Lincoln (college arm -- has been injured)
5. Morrow (college arm)
6. A. Miller (widely reputed to the top college arm at the time -- wrong)
7. Kershaw
8. Stubbs
9. Rowell
10. Lincecum

As it looks now, Kershaw was worthy of a top 5 pick that year.

With Strasburg, White, Gibson, Volz, Minor, Oliver and Crow (among others), you could have 6 college arms in the top 10 again. Something tells me that all 6 of those guys won't outperform whoever turns out to be the best HS arm in this draft.

M2
02-08-2009, 08:44 PM
But he has performed like a top 10 pick. That's the point.

So have 15 other guys from that draft, which is also the point.


If there's a Lincecum-like college arm available to the Reds at #8 this year, sure, it would be wise to draft him. But the point was that Kershaw has proven to be a top-10 worthy pick, and he was not the "rare" arm you're claiming a HS must be to warrant a look inside the top 10.

Kershaw may or may not be a good major league pitcher in the final analysis. He's a hot property, that's a good thing to be. He's also got control issues and it wouldn't be stunning to see him struggle with those and for the Dodgers to pass him along before he gets established. Meanwhile, it's fairly common that someone drops.


I simply don't buy that the top 3-5 college arms plus the top 3-5 college bats plus the top 3-5 HS bats, each one, MUST be a better pick than the top HS arm in a year in which the top HS arm is not a Beckett/Strasberg arm. I don't think the draft works that way.

Are you willing to wait around for 5-7 years is the real question. Most clubs aren't and they'd do better to admit that upfront. John Danks and Gavin Floyd both pitched well last season. Fat lot of good it did the Rangers and Phillies. It's not necessarily about quality, it's about getting an ROI.

Two years ago, people were acting like Homer Bailey had made it too. He hadn't and, two years later, he's on his last option.

lollipopcurve
02-08-2009, 09:14 PM
So have 15 other guys from that draft, which is also the point.

But he was the consensus top HS pitcher, as was Volstad. Those guys are easy to see, and, I would say, shortsighted to overlook based on whether you're picking at 8 or 18.


Kershaw may or may not be a good major league pitcher in the final analysis. He's a hot property, that's a good thing to be.

Exactly. I believe you made the same point about Porcello. Bailey, too, was a hot property at one time (and may still have value).


John Danks and Gavin Floyd both pitched well last season. Fat lot of good it did the Rangers and Phillies. It's not necessarily about quality, it's about getting an ROI.

That's not really a draft issue, that's a development issue. It's not the scouting director's fault if his organization loses patience with a kid or doesn't "unlock his potential," only to see the kid prosper elsewhere. (FWIW, Danks brought the Rangers Brandon McCarthy, who was a hot properrty at that time, too.)


Are you willing to wait around for 5-7 years is the real question.

For HS pitchers overall, that's true. But when you're talking the top, top talent -- which is what we're talking about here -- the time frame is shorter.

M2
02-08-2009, 10:13 PM
That's not really a draft issue, that's a development issue.

My kids want a dog. Picking up after themselves so the house stays dog-proofed? Ready to pick up after the dog? Ready to get up early to walk the dog every morning? Ready to walk the dog no matter the weather? No so much.

Someone's got to be the adult and say, "You're not ready for a dog."


For HS pitchers overall, that's true. But when you're talking the top, top talent -- which is what we're talking about here -- the time frame is shorter.

No it isn't. Top 15 HS pitchers 1996-2004 who weren't able to pitch 162+ IP with ERA+ better than 100 in a single season prior to age 23 (e.g. five years into pro ball).

John Patterson
Matt White
Adam Eaton
Bobby Seay
Geoff Getz
Jon Garland
Aaron Akin
J.M. Gold
Josh Beckett
Josh Girdley
Brett Myers
Ty Howington
Jason Stumm
Mike Stodolka
Matt Harrington
Matt Wheatland
Mark Phillips
Joe Torres
Gavin Floyd
Colt Griffin
Mike Jones
Chris Gruler
Adam Loewen
Clint Everts
Zack Greinke
John Danks
Mark Rogers
Homer Bailey

Top 15 HS pitchers 1996-2004 who were able to post at least one season of 162+ IP with an ERA+ of at least 100 at age 22 or less (e.g. inside of four years).

Scott Kazmir

So where are these top, top talents who are ready early?

stock
02-09-2009, 01:02 AM
First of all lets get the facts straight. There were 27 high school pitchers drafted in the first 15 picks from 1996-2004.

Five (Jon Garland, Brett Myers, Zack Greinke, Kazmir, Danks) of these 27 pitched at least 162 innings in their first 5 years and a 6th, Josh Beckett, pitched over 150.

42 non HS pitchers were drafted with the first 15 picks in the same time frame. 11 of these had at least one year of 162 IP in their first 5 years after being drafted.

College players win 26% to 22%. Not a noticable difference. Pitchers who have pitched at least 162 innings in their career HS players win 33% to 28%.

However once you look at the pitchers that have pitched 162 innings in their career it looks as if you may be better off selecting a HS pitcher as opposed to a college pitcher. Which group of players would you rather have for your staff?

HS: John Patterson, Adam Eaton, Jon Garland, Josh Beckett, Brett Myers, Gavin Floyd, Zack Greinke, Scott Kazmir and John Danks

Three studs (Beckett, Greinke and Kazmir), three good pitchers (Myers, Floyd and Danks) and Garland. Two had injury filled careers and are now out of baseball or should be.

College: John Benson, Brandon Looper, Mark Mulder, Jeff Weaver, Barry Zito, Ben Sheets, Mark Prior, Jeff Francis, Jon Saunders, Paul Maholm, Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver.

Zero studs, three good pitchers (Saunders, Verlander and Weaver) and Looper, Zito, Maholm and Francis. It is tough to figure out where to place Sheets because he is injured so much. If healthy he is a stud. If Verlander pitched injured last year he qualifies as a stud. Six or seven of the 12 are injury risks (Benson, Looper, Mulder, Sheets, Prior, Verlander and Weaver). You can argue that Verlanader wasn't hurt last year but that just means he stunk because he isn't very good.

It seems to me that if you base your decision on who to draft for 2009 based upon the 1996-2004 drafts you avoid college pitchers not HS pitchers. Why draft a pitcher who if he makes it to the show is an injury risk.

Even though only 39% of the players drafted in your time frame were HS pitchers, at least 60% of them are currently in the top 10 of pitchers.

M2
02-09-2009, 02:56 AM
First of all lets get the facts straight. There were 27 high school pitchers drafted in the first 15 picks from 1996-2004.

Five (Jon Garland, Brett Myers, Zack Greinke, Kazmir, Danks) of these 27 pitched at least 162 innings in their first 5 years and a 6th, Josh Beckett, pitched over 150.

I've got 29, all named above. Not saying I'm right and you're wrong, just saying I've got 29.

The issue was how quickly are prime HS arms ready. It came up after I mentioned that you've got to be prepared to wait 5-7 years for them and lollipop insisted that's not so. I care about more than just innings. I want quality innings. So I chose 162 IP (the ERA title qualifying line) and a 100 or better ERA+ (which is a fair, park-neutral measurement).

And Kazmir is the only HS kid who made it in less than five years.

Myers took six years. Garland took five years (I'll give him the mulligan for a 99 ERA+ in 2002). Greinke took six years. Danks took five years. Beckett's an oddball. Officially it took him six years, though he pitched well for 142 IP in 2003 and then got white hot in the playoffs and won his team a World Series. So feel free to count him as four, five or six. Adding to his oddball status, Beckett was 19 when he got drafted.


42 non HS pitchers were drafted with the first 15 picks in the same time frame. 11 of these had at least one year of 162 IP in their first 5 years after being drafted.

And the majority of those were pitching like that inside of three years. So a top college pitcher generally gets you a return 2-4 years, a top HS pitcher in 5-7 years.


College players win 26% to 22%. Not a noticable difference.

This is where, IMO, your methodology falls apart. If you're drafting a kid you don't care about his entire potential career. You care about what he does for you. For instance, it did the Diamondbacks no good that John Patterson went on to have his one good season nine years later for the Nationals (who, oddly were the organization that drafted him, though he got out of that thanks to a loophole and signed with AZ).

Only 4 of the 29 HS arms delivered for the teams that drafted them. That's 14%, making 26% a whole heck of a lot better (and all 11 college pitchers did deliver 162+ IP, 100+ ERA+ seasons for the clubs that drafted them). That's nearly double the success rate on top of the faster rate of return.

I don't think teams want to be in the business of drafting and developing arms for other teams, which is what happens with top HS pitchers as often as not. In fact, I'd rather be the team that trades for them four or five years down the road after the team that drafted them get disillusioned. It would cost less and I'd have a clearer idea of what I'm buying. The draft acts as a trigger to get a kid some notice, expectations get inflated, trough of disillusionment hits, someone then takes the time to get the kid truly ready, then he reaches a productive plateau.

If only there was some well-known business world application of those premises, a documented hype cycle if you will, from which baseball could learn.

My criteria for taking a HS arm that high is the kid has got to be amazing. Very good doesn't cut it. I'll take my chances on 26% and a quicker rate of return otherwise (or position players). Since 1996 there are three pitchers who fit that profile - Beckett, Kazmir and Porcello. I'd have missed on Garland, Myers and Greinke, which I can totally live with.

Again, get into the lower half of the first round and I'm all ears when it comes to HS pitchers. If a kid drops a bit or you think you've got a hidden gem, go for it. Success rates plummet quickly in the draft.

As for who's a stud and who's not, from the arms we're talking about I'll take Zito, Mulder, Beckett, Sheets and Prior (in no specific order) as having had the five best single seasons of the pitchers drafted from 1996-2004.

In terms of current career value (not totally fair because these are works in progress and some are just starting their careers) - Zito, Mulder, Beckett, Kazmir and Sheets (again, in no specific order). In terms of future value (which is pure speculation), I'd take Verlander, Kazmir, Beckett, Weaver and one of Danks/Francis/Greinke.

lollipopcurve
02-09-2009, 08:31 AM
I don't think teams want to be in the business of drafting and developing arms for other teams, which is what happens with top HS pitchers as often as not. In fact, I'd rather be the team that trades for them four or five years down the road after the team that drafted them get disillusioned. It would cost less and I'd have a clearer idea of what I'm buying. The draft acts as a trigger to get a kid some notice, expectations get inflated, trough of disillusionment hits, someone then takes the time to get the kid truly ready, then he reaches a productive plateau.

First off, lots of good stuff here, M2 and stock.

Again, in my view, the issue of discarding a quality young arm to another organization is a development issue, not a drafting issue. You're absolutely correct that it does happen that teams get impatient and cut a premium arm loose. It happens with draft picks and Latin American free agents (Pedro Martinez, Francisco Liriano, etc.). But to say that these arms always come cheaper than drafting them (let's say a 2 million dollar investment) is debatable, and to assume that your team will be able to identify that arm and then find a match to trade for that arm is wishful thinking.

Quality starting pitching is very tough to find. For a team like the Reds, outbidding others for quality starters in free agency is pretty much out of the question. That leaves the trade market and the draft, and I happen to be of the opinion that the reward associated with drafting the top high school arm in the nation -- if you can identify him with relative ease -- is often (not always) well worth the risk. You have to exercise some patience (as, for example, the Royals have done with Greinke), sure, but the potential payoff merits that.

Could be another volatile draft season on Redszone.

lollipopcurve
02-09-2009, 09:53 AM
To get away from all the theorizing -- we tend to tread the same ground every year -- I was just reading a BA chat question re: catcher Trevor Coleman from Missouri. He's rated the #40 college prospect by BA right now, and he's a switch hitter with very solid defensive skills. Why is he interesting? Because he has caught both Kyle Gibson and Aaron Crow at Missouri. And he was drafted out of high school in the 38th round in 2006 by.... you got it, the Reds.

So, wouldn't it be interesting if the Reds took Gibson or Crow #1, then followed with Coleman shortly after that? Right now BA projects him to the 3rd round, but possibly higher if he has a good year with the bat. I'd have to think having his college catcher, who's strong defender, would be beneficial to either Gibson or Crow as they transition to pro ball. The organization could use another polished catcher, too.

dougdirt
02-09-2009, 01:02 PM
What the issue is, isn't HS and college, its scouting. Guys outside of the top 15 have made things happen from the HS ranks. They just went lower. Had someone 'reached' and taken then 5-10-15-20 spots higher than they were 'supposed' to go, they turn the tables around a little bit on the high school crop.

Waiting isn't an issue for me. If the kid is going to be good, I am willing to wait. Like Lollipopcurve said, its a developmental issue. If the Pirates had taken Cole Hamels #1 overall in 2002 would it have been a bad pick because he actually went 17th overall? At the time someone may have called it a signability pick and a reach. Now that we look at it, it would have been arguably the best pick they could have made. What if Matt Cain went #3 overall in the draft? Would it have been a bad pick and a reach at the time? Maybe. Doesn't mean it wouldn't have been a good pick now though. The key is being able to know the right guys, or being able to develop the right guys. Some teams can do that. Some teams can't.

redsfandan
02-15-2009, 07:24 AM
I like the sound of that. We have the 8th pick in the 2nd round too don't we? So could our first three picks possibly be:
8th
41st-50th &
60th-70th?

umm hello?? :feedback:

LoganBuck
02-15-2009, 02:01 PM
umm hello?? :feedback:

Umm, can you look it up yourself?

















The answer to your question is yes btw.

Grande Donkey
02-16-2009, 01:40 PM
Give me Kentrail Davis and I will be happy. He is an absolute stud.

dougdirt
02-16-2009, 01:57 PM
Give me Kentrail Davis and I will be happy. He is an absolute stud.

Be careful with college guys who struggle to make contact. I want to see his contact rate really improve this year.

TRF
02-16-2009, 02:40 PM
Waiting isn't an issue for me. If the kid is going to be good, I am willing to wait.... The key is being able to know the right guys, or being able to develop the right guys. Some teams can do that. Some teams can't.

Agree and disagree here. It also takes a GM that understands the nature of his organization now and two years from now prior to the upcoming draft. The Reds for example have a lot of young pitching in the upper minors. We haven't seen that for a decade at least. Drafting a HS pitcher now, one with electric stuff might be a good idea. Yes, it's a project, but the system put in place by Krivsky, if it is still being used, reduced arm injuries. Taking on a "project arm" in the first round, IF they feel he's the best player available can add depth to the system.

The Reds seem to have an abundance of marketable pitching talent in the upper minors. Another route to go would be to draft that college arm with the idea he's replacing one of Bailey/Maloney/Ramirez/LeCure etc. with one or more being dealt for other area's of need (SS)

But for a change, and I cannot believe I am typing this, The Reds don't NEED an arm at the top of the draft. They need position players, especially SS.

OnBaseMachine
02-16-2009, 02:59 PM
Be careful with college guys who struggle to make contact. I want to see his contact rate really improve this year.

In addition to that, Davis still needs plenty of work defensively as he's still raw in that area. If he's still available in the supplemental first round then I would have no problem if the Reds drafted him, but there's no way I'd take him with the eighth overall pick. Right now I'm hoping for one of Stephen Strasburg (no chance), Grant Green (no chance), Dustin Ackley, Alex White, Kyle Gibson, or Donovan Tate.

Grande Donkey
02-16-2009, 05:04 PM
Be careful with college guys who struggle to make contact. I want to see his contact rate really improve this year.That is a valid concern. I talked to a couple of the coaches at UT during the Fall Game (That he went 3-3 w/ 2 Walks and a tripple in BTW) and they said look for Kentrail to really explode this year. Coach Raleigh told me that KD never really got settled in and that he put way to much pressure on himself trying to carry the team.


In addition to that, Davis still needs plenty of work defensively as he's still raw in that area. If he's still available in the supplemental first round then I would have no problem if the Reds drafted him, but there's no way I'd take him with the eighth overall pick. Right now I'm hoping for one of Stephen Strasburg (no chance), Grant Green (no chance), Dustin Ackley, Alex White, Kyle Gibson, or Donovan Tate.1. I don't know how good he was in the outfield in high school, where I am assuming you heard that report, but he is a very solid CFer with the athleticism to only get better.

2. 0% chance he will be there in the supplemental round. He will be gone by 15th at the latest.

OnBaseMachine
02-16-2009, 05:21 PM
That is a valid concern. I talked to a couple of the coaches at UT during the Fall Game (That he went 3-3 w/ 2 Walks and a tripple in BTW) and they said look for Kentrail to really explode this year. Coach Raleigh told me that KD never really got settled in and that he put way to much pressure on himself trying to carry the team.

1. I don't know how good he was in the outfield in high school, where I am assuming you heard that report, but he is a very solid CFer with the athleticism to only get better.

2. 0% chance he will be there in the supplemental round. He will be gone by 15th at the latest.

Baseball America says Davis may have to move from center field to left field because he lacks defensive instincts and arm strength.

Grande Donkey
02-16-2009, 05:24 PM
Baseball America says Davis may have to move from center field to left field because he lacks defensive instincts and arm strength.
Arm strength, maybe. There is a little to be desired there but other than that he plays CF well.

OnBaseMachine
02-16-2009, 05:32 PM
I just finished up reading anther scouting report on Kyle Gibson from Baseball America. He's quickly becoming my number one guy behind Strasburg and Green. He sounds a lot like Mike Pelfrey of the Mets. His current fastball is around 89-92 with sinking action, his slider is a plus pitch and Baseball America says his changeup has a chance to be a plus pitch. He's got a smooth delivery and room to add more velocity. I'm hoping he falls to the Reds at number eight.

11larkin11
02-16-2009, 06:20 PM
Gibson is also my numer one choice, that I think realistically we could have a chance at.

Grande Donkey
02-16-2009, 06:44 PM
http://collegebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=1169&CID=912985

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/awards/all-america-teams/2009/267613.html

Couple preseason all-american teams released today. SIAP...

redsfandan
02-17-2009, 02:52 AM
Please accept my humble apology for asking what was apparently a trivial and stupid question before. I admit that I could have been more clear about what I was asking but I was simply curious if anyone knew how many sandwich picks there are (counting all teams) and rough estimations of where our sandwich pick and 2nd round pick would fall overall. I only asked here cuz I wasn't sure what site would tell me without my having to pay for a subsciption. Yes I have checked a few places. I may have overlooked what I was looking for but I did check. Anyway, thanks for the response. :)

OnBaseMachine
02-17-2009, 03:20 AM
Below is the current draft order, and the list of unsigned compensation free agents.

First-Round Picks
1. Nationals
2. Mariners
3. Padres
4. Pirates
5. Orioles
6. Giants
7. Braves
8. Reds
9. Tigers
10. Nationals (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow)
11. Rockies
12. Royals
13. Athletics
14. Rangers
15. Indians
16. Diamondbacks
17. Dodgers
18. Marlins
19. Cardinals
20. Blue Jays
21. Mariners (if they fail to sign 2008 first-rounder Joshua Fields)
22. Astros
23. Twins
24. White Sox
25. Angels (from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez, A)
26. Angels (from Yankees for Mark Teixeira, A)
27. Brewers
28. Mariners (from Phillies for Raul Ibanez, A)
29. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Gerrit Cole)
30. Red Sox
31. Rays
32. Cubs
33. Rockies (from Angels for Brian Fuentes, A)
Supplemental First-Round Picks
34. Mariners (Ibanez)
35. Rockies (Fuentes)
36. Dodgers (Derek Lowe, A, to Braves)
37. Blue Jays (A.J. Burnett, A, to Yankees)
38. Brewers (C.C. Sabathia, A, to Yankees)
39. Angels (Teixeira)
40. Angels (Rodriguez)
41. Reds (Jeremy Affeldt, B, to Giants)
42. Rangers (Milton Bradley, B, to Cubs)
43. Diamondbacks (Brandon Lyon, B, to Tigers)
44. Brewers (Brian Shouse, B, to Rays)
45. Angels (Jon Garland, B, to Diamondbacks)
Second-Round Changes
49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers)
53. Dodgers (from Braves for Lowe)
70. Brewers (from Yankees for Sabathia)
Third-Round Changes
76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle)
101. Blue Jays (from Yankees for Burnett)
Supplemental Third-Round Picks
108. Astros (for failure to sign 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson)
Remaining Compensation Free Agents
Ari: Juan Cruz (A), Orlando Hudson (A).
Bos: Paul Byrd (B).
CWS: Orlando Cabrera (A).
KC: Mark Grudzielanek (B).
LAD: Manny Ramirez (A).
Mil: Ben Sheets (A).
Min: Dennys Reyes (B).

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/267521.html

redsfandan
02-17-2009, 03:27 AM
Thanks OBM. I appreciate it. Since Joshua Fields signed this week I'll assume that pick doesn't exist anymore and the picks after essentially move up one spot .

bounty37h
02-17-2009, 12:13 PM
Baseball America has new stuff out today related to the 2009 draft including the top 100 college and high school prospects.

The Reds hold the number eight overall pick in the draft and they also have a supplemental first-round pick somewhere between #41-50. With the #8 overall pick, I'm quite intrigued by the plethora of college pitching. The top two talents are Stephen Strasburg (RHP) and Grant Green (SS) and both figure to go 1-2. After them, Alex White and Kyle Gibson interest me the most. White will most likely be gone by the time the Reds pick, but Gibson should still be around. He's already got great stuff but some say he's got the most projection left of any college starter. His lanky frame should allow him to fill out and add another 2-3 mph to his already plus velocity.

The top high school talents are Donovan Tate (CF) and the two left handed starters Tyler Matzek and Matt Purke. I prefer Gibson to the HS lefties, but if the top college arms are off the board then I'd consider Matzek or Purke. Tate is very intriguing. He's a 5-tool center fielder with big potential. I'd love to have him but he's a Georgia boy and the Braves own the #7 pick. Expect this to be similar to 2007 when the Braves picked one spot ahead of the Reds and grabbed Georgian Jason Heyward.

A kid I'm hoping will be around when the Reds pick in the supplemental round is Jiovanni Mier, a high school shortstop from California. He's rated as the best defensive high school shortstop in the draft and he's got the tools to be a good hitter. I'd be thrilled if the Reds could come away with a Kyle Gibson/Alex White/Donovan Tate at #8 and then Jiovanni Mier in the supplemental round.


I got to watch Gibson last year with Team USA, great guy-was very easy to talk with, good with fans (he signed every auto with a biblical verse). He also had good stuff-as you said, lot already there, but also great potential it seemed. Donoavn Tate just signed 2 weeks ago to play football at UNC (great QB recruit, but bb is def his future), and will play baseball here as well if he makes it to campus, so I am hoping for that.

HBP
02-17-2009, 02:14 PM
How does it play out in 2010 if the Nationals don't sign the #10 pick this year?

JaxRed
02-17-2009, 02:53 PM
They lose that pick if they don't sign the guy this year

OnBaseMachine
02-17-2009, 09:06 PM
Here's the updated order:

First-Round Picks
1. Nationals
2. Mariners
3. Padres
4. Pirates
5. Orioles
6. Giants
7. Braves
8. Reds
9. Tigers
10. Nationals (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow)
11. Rockies
12. Royals
13. Athletics
14. Rangers
15. Indians
16. Diamondbacks
17. Dodgers
18. Marlins
19. Cardinals
20. Blue Jays
21. Astros
22. Twins
23. White Sox
24. Angels (from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez, A)
25. Angels (from Yankees for Mark Teixeira, A)
26. Brewers
27. Mariners (from Phillies for Raul Ibanez, A)
28. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Gerrit Cole)
29. Red Sox
30. Rays
31. Cubs
32. Rockies (from Angels for Brian Fuentes, A)
Supplemental First-Round Picks
33. Mariners (Ibanez)
34. Rockies (Fuentes)
35. Dodgers (Derek Lowe, A, to Braves)
36. Blue Jays (A.J. Burnett, A, to Yankees)
37. Brewers (C.C. Sabathia, A, to Yankees)
38. Angels (Teixeira)
39. Angels (Rodriguez)
40. Reds (Jeremy Affeldt, B, to Giants)
41. Rangers (Milton Bradley, B, to Cubs)
42. Diamondbacks (Brandon Lyon, B, to Tigers)
43. Brewers (Brian Shouse, B, to Rays)
44. Angels (Jon Garland, B, to Diamondbacks)
Second-Round Changes
49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers)
52. Dodgers (from Braves for Lowe)
69. Brewers (from Yankees for Sabathia)
Third-Round Changes
76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle)
100. Blue Jays (from Yankees for Burnett)
Supplemental Third-Round Picks
107. Astros (for failure to sign 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson)
Remaining Compensation Free Agents
Ari: Juan Cruz (A), Orlando Hudson (A).
Bos: Paul Byrd (B).
CWS: Orlando Cabrera (A).
KC: Mark Grudzielanek (B).
LAD: Manny Ramirez (A).
Mil: Ben Sheets (A).
Min: Dennys Reyes (B).

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/267624.html

OnBaseMachine
03-25-2009, 04:10 PM
Strike Three: Golden Spikes Spotlight on Kyle Gibson

For the second straight week, Missouri junior righthander Kyle Gibson dazzled in a complete-game win against a top-five opponent. The first-team preseason All-American spun his first career shutout last week at Texas, then found a way to top himself this week, racking up a career-high 16 strikeouts in a 3-2 win against Texas A&M on Friday.

"He was phenomenal and took it to another level," Tigers coach Tim Jamieson said. "Each time out he just gets a little bit better. In the ninth inning, he came out and was just on a mission. He’s really, really good."

Gibson retired the first 10 batters he faced and 18 of the first 19. He allowed two runs on five hits and a walk and finished with 117 pitches. Gibson has struck out 40 over his last three starts and is now 4-1, 1.15 with a 54-9 strikeout-walk ratio in 39 innings on the season. His plus slider continues to be a strikeout pitch, but it’s not the only way he’s been able to miss bats this year.

"The biggest difference between him this year and last year is his fastball command, and his ability to use that as a strikeout pitch," Jamieson said. "Trevor Coleman said his fastball is almost uncatchable, it’s moving so much. The hitters’ timing is OK, but the ball moves away from their bats at the last second."

Gibson’s complete game allowed Missouri to employ a pitcher-by-committee approach Saturday. The Tigers used nine different pitchers for an inning apiece in a 6-2 win to clinch the series.

"We’ve been doing it in the middle of the week," Jamieson said. "We did it against Arizona State our fifth game of the year. We did it then because we had played four games that weekend and we didn’t really have a fifth starter. This was the fourth or fifth time we’ve done it. We just felt like the strength of the staff, we’ve got two really good starters in Gibson and (sophomore righty Nick) Tepesch, then a bunch of guys who can throw strikes and come after you for an inning. I don’t know if it will be a staple, but it will be for a while. As long as they’re throwing strikes, it’s a good formula.

"Another key to that is Gibson on Friday night. If he had only given us four or five innings, that would have changed our plan."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=982

I'm hoping Gibson is still around at #8 but if he keeps this up he may go in the top five.

OnBaseMachine
03-25-2009, 04:12 PM
Baseball America draft tracker chart:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-tracker/2009/267838.html

Grande Donkey
03-25-2009, 05:32 PM
Anyone have an update on Justin Grimm? He isn't draft eligible until next year but apparently he was extremely impressive this weekend for UGA. He apparently hit 102 twice on the stadium gun while getting 9 Ks in 6 innings.

Scrap Irony
03-25-2009, 05:44 PM
If Austin Maddox drops through the first round to the Reds in the supplimental or the second, I'm one happy guy. At #8, no way does Gibson get there.

Right now, the order looks to be:
1. Washington-- Strasburg
Even if the ridiculous salary demands are true, he's the top arm (and prospect) since Prior and a legitimate ace-level guy as early as 2011 for a team that desperately needs one.

2. Mariners-- Dustin Ackley, CF
Having Triunfel in the fold means Grant Green (USC SS) goes on. M's new emphasis on numbers may mean they focus more on results and less on physique. If so, Ackley makes sense. But only if he can play CF, not as a first baseman. Tough call here. May choose to go with Gibson, as he's put up great numbers, but that obp, IMO, will turn heads.

3. Padres-- Grant Green, SS
Desperately need offense at the major league level and has absolutely no SS with any chance to become decent in the system. Easiest call in the draft.

4. Pirates-- Kyle Gibson
Could go Donavan Tate, but settle for second-best arm in the draft. Not bad, in that he can dial it up to mid 90's with outstanding K rates.

5. Orioles-- Donavan Tate, OF
Questions about signability, but O's would love to pair Tate with current major leaguers Jones and Markakis to form an incredible OF in about five years. True 5-tool talent.

6. Giants-- Tyler Matzek, LHSP (HS)
Need offense in the worst way and pitching staff is both solid and fairly young. Can't use a catcher, as Posey looks nice thus far (and was paid extraordinarily), though, and no one else projects this high with the bat.

7. Braves-- Shelby Miller
Wanted Matsek, but will settle for the next great Texas fireballer. May flame out, may become a HOF. With Bravo track record, bet the latter.

8. Reds-- Alex White
Could go with HS catcher, but there are enough of them, at this point, that you could grab a great one either in Round Two or the Supplimental. Don't need a corner guy or an OF. (No Kentrail Davis is a good thing, IMO, as he's the likely early round bust.) White hasn't been as good as last year, but it's still early. Not a bad choice, but not exactly sexy either.



Of course, this could change rather quickly as the year progresses.

OnBaseMachine
03-25-2009, 06:57 PM
Ben (Centerville, OH): Grant Green has been somewhat underwhelming so far, any chance a slow start could have him some how fall to the Reds at #7 in teh June draft?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:10 PM ET ) He has been somewhat overwhelming, and there's no clear No. 2 pick right now behind Strasburg. I think Green could fall to No. 7, based on a combination of his performance thus far and the fact that he's represented by the Scott Boras Corp. and won't just sign for slot. Will the Reds give out a big league deal to get him at No. 7 after having to do so for Alonso last year? We'll see.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/espn-chat/2009/267839.html

dougdirt
03-25-2009, 07:02 PM
No chance I would sign Grant Green to a MLB deal.

OnBaseMachine
03-25-2009, 07:06 PM
No chance I would sign Grant Green to a MLB deal.

I would, but I just don't see him falling to the Reds at #8. I think he goes in the top three picks.

dougdirt
03-25-2009, 07:20 PM
I would, but I just don't see him falling to the Reds at #8. I think he goes in the top three picks.

Why would you give him a major league deal? There are some legit concerns with his bat.

OnBaseMachine
03-25-2009, 07:34 PM
Why would you give him a major league deal? There are some legit concerns with his bat.

I think he's going to be a great major leaguer. He's got enough range to play shortstop and he's been compared to guys like Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki. Another plus is he's already proven he can hit with a wood bat, as he hit .348/.451/.547 - .998 OPS in 161 atbats in the Cape Cod League. I'm hoping he falls to the Reds at #8 but I just don't see him getting past the Padres at #3.

Az. Reds Fan
03-25-2009, 07:43 PM
Just for fun, here's a site with a few mock drafts, granted some of them are months old, but some have some good write-ups on the players...check it out

http://dcprosportsreport.com/mockdraftdatabase/mlb.html

dougdirt
03-25-2009, 08:06 PM
I think he's going to be a great major leaguer. He's got enough range to play shortstop and he's been compared to guys like Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki. Another plus is he's already proven he can hit with a wood bat, as he hit .348/.451/.547 - .998 OPS in 161 atbats in the Cape Cod League. I'm hoping he falls to the Reds at #8 but I just don't see him getting past the Padres at #3.

Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki is a large range of skills. I want to see him actually hit this year. He has struggled for the most part this year, especially making contact. I would be very wary of handing him a MLB deal when he has some questions about placing the bat on the ball.

Scrap Irony
03-25-2009, 08:39 PM
If you sign him to a major league deal, you get four years to get him to the major leagues.

If he's not any good in four years, what's it hurt to deal him or cut him?

The only way a major league deal hurts is if you've got a ton of young talent that you need to protect on the 40-man roster.

Most teams drafting in the top three don't.

OnBaseMachine
04-14-2009, 01:22 PM
Updated draft order from Baseball America:

2009 Draft Order

Staff Report
April 14, 2009

First-Round Picks
1. Nationals
2. Mariners
3. Padres
4. Pirates
5. Orioles
6. Giants
7. Braves
8. Reds
9. Tigers
10. Nationals (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow)
11. Rockies
12. Royals
13. Athletics
14. Rangers
15. Indians
16. Diamondbacks
17. Diamondbacks (from Dodgers for Orlando Hudson, A)
18. Marlins
19. Cardinals
20. Blue Jays
21. Astros
22. Twins
23. White Sox
24. Angels (from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez, A)
25. Angels (from Yankees for Mark Teixeira, A)
26. Brewers
27. Mariners (from Phillies for Raul Ibanez, A)
28. Red Sox
29. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Gerrit Cole)
30. Rays
31. Cubs
32. Rockies (from Angels for Brian Fuentes, A)

Supplemental First-Round Picks
33. Mariners (Ibanez)
34. Rockies (Fuentes)
35. Diamondbacks (Hudson)
36. Dodgers (Derek Lowe, A, to Braves)
37. Blue Jays (A.J. Burnett, A, to Yankees)
38. White Sox (Orlando Cabrera, A, to Athletics)
39. Brewers (C.C. Sabathia, A, to Yankees)
40. Angels (Teixeira)
41. Diamondbacks (Juan Cruz, A, to Royals)
42. Angels (Rodriguez)
43. Reds (Jeremy Affeldt, B, to Giants)
44. Rangers (Milton Bradley, B, to Cubs)
45. Diamondbacks (Brandon Lyon, B, to Tigers)
46. Twins (Dennys Reyes, B, to Cardinals)
47. Brewers (Brian Shouse, B, to Rays)
48. Angels (Jon Garland, B, to Diamondbacks)
49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers)

Second-Round Changes
56. Dodgers (from Braves for Lowe)
60. Diamondbacks (from Royals for Cruz)
61. White Sox (from Athletics for Cabrera)
73. Brewers (from Yankees for Sabathia)
76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle)

Third-Round Changes
104. Blue Jays (from Yankees for Burnett)

Supplemental Third-Round Picks
111. Astros (for failure to sign 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-basics/2009/267944.html

bucksfan2
04-14-2009, 04:01 PM
Any local guys look to go high in the draft?

M2
04-15-2009, 02:24 AM
FWIW, this is looking like a real fun draft class. There's going to be more talent in the later first round through the sixth round than we usually see. Nice mix of pitchers, good athletes, great hitters.

Scrap Irony
04-15-2009, 11:04 AM
It will be interesting to see what clubs do, as most of the outstanding athletes don't really have great numbers and those that have great numbers are questionable athletes playing non-premium positions.

2009 Draft Pluses:
Catching
From Phegley at IU through HSers Stassi and Maddux, there are at least five catchers who could rightfully expect to hear their name in the first round. It's doubtful that happens and there's a good chance at least one of these guys is available later than expected.

Pitching Tools
Strasburg is a generational talent, with two 70+ pitches and great command. White has the stuff to be the top hurler in five of the past seven drafts. Paxton from UK is a lefty with a plus FB (97 or so), not to mention holdovers like Crow and Scheppers. Did I mention the four HS arms? Lots to choose from-- and like-- here.

Batting Eyes
Almost all the top hitters are willing to take a walk, a good indication of the ability to move radpidly up the minor league ladder. According to scouts (and advanced stats), 8 of the top ten hitters walk at least 12% of the time. Should mean fewer busts in the top rounds.

Draft Negatives:
Lack of Leather
Six guys play CF or SS that are possible first round talents, and four of those may need to switch to corner OF spots because of growth or range concerns. Too, the abundance of right-sideed defensive spectrum mashers may mean many are blocked by more established players ahead of them. And if they aren't playing SS now, there's a great chance they won't in the future.

Mechanic Issues
Many of the top pitchers have mechanical issus or question marks. Crow, White, and even Strasburg looks like an arm injury waiting to happen, while Scheppers has already been bitten by the injury bug. Many possible flame-outs possible. In fact, only the HS pitchers (Matzek, Wheeler, Purke) have been praised as having smooth mechanics and that's a whole other problem for many on the board.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2009, 12:26 PM
In fact, only the HS pitchers (Matzek, Wheeler, Purke) have been praised as having smooth mechanics and that's a whole other problem for many on the board.

I've seen just brief clips of all these guys, but I was impressed by Wheeler. I think the Reds are going to have a tough choice to make in the first round -- lots of pitching talent will still be there, but no sure thing.

DTCromer
04-15-2009, 12:27 PM
Good lord, the Diamondbacks have 6 of the top 60 picks.

M2
04-15-2009, 12:52 PM
I've seen just brief clips of all these guys, but I was impressed by Wheeler. I think the Reds are going to have a tough choice to make in the first round -- lots of pitching talent will still be there, but no sure thing.

Kyle Gibson's probably the best non-Strasburg pitcher in the draft, or at least the surest bet after Strasburg. Mike Leake is emerging as a sleeper.

The Reds are in a weird spot. The #8 pick is a bit hard to pin down, but they might be able to get steals at #43 and #57. It's the kind of draft where a team can win big.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2009, 12:56 PM
Mike Leake is emerging as a sleeper.

Agreed. Really like what I'm reading about him -- elite command of 4 pitches, great performance record at a top program, two-way player who when he isn't pitching plays both INF and OF. Small for a top pitcher, but very, very skilled. I'd like the pick, if the Reds took him.

Scrap Irony
04-15-2009, 01:44 PM
Right now, if I'm picking a pitcher, I really like White's stuff and would be hard-pressed not to take him, mechanics issues and all. I'd also have to really research those HS pitchers, particularly Wheeler. (I am figuring Strasburg, Matzek, and Gibson are all gone with the 8th pick.)

If I'm also looking at hitting, Phegley looks like a great pick at this point, but I'd rather wait until the supplimental round to nab someone like Maddux (I hope) or perhaps free-falling USC SS Grant Green.

OnBaseMachine
04-15-2009, 02:26 PM
Kyle Gibson is still my boy. I've been touting him since last year. If he's available at #8, the Reds should take him, IMO. Then I'd like to get a big high school bat with our supplemental pick.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2009, 02:27 PM
perhaps free-falling USC SS Grant Green.

Is he really having that bad a year? Where do you hear this?

M2
04-15-2009, 02:52 PM
Is he really having that bad a year? Where do you hear this?

Last I saw he was .375/.455/.552 after a slow start. The Reds should be so lucky to see him drop to #8. He'd be an easy pick in that situation.

OnBaseMachine
04-15-2009, 03:01 PM
Last I saw he was .375/.455/.552 after a slow start. The Reds should be so lucky to see him drop to #8. He'd be an easy pick in that situation.

I agree.

Benihana
04-15-2009, 04:14 PM
I would be ecstatic if Grant Green fell to the Reds. I don't think he will.

OnBaseMachine
04-15-2009, 07:22 PM
Ben (Centerville, OH): Would the Reds be best served focusing on a pitcher at #8 in the upcoming June draft since they have taken a position player in the first round 4 straight years (Jay Bruce, NA, Devin Mesoraco, Yonder Alonso) and have a lack of a top flight pitching prospect in their system and have an abundance of good hitters (Alonso, Valaika, Soto, Francisco, etc...) or is it best to just think Best Player Available pretty much no matter what?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:08 PM ET ) It's best to focus on BPA at the top of the draft, but you should get your wish b/c all of the BPAs at that point should be pitchers. The only hitters I'd feel good about in the top 10 picks would be Grant Green, Dustin Ackley and Donavan Tate, and none of them should make it to No. 8. Would be interesting if the Reds win up with Aaron Crow, whom they almost picked last year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/espn-chat/2009/267949.html

M2
04-15-2009, 10:03 PM
BA strikes me as being a little too locked into their preseason list. Jay Bruce was ranked the #44 HS prospect prior to 2005, Ryan Braun was the #27 college prospect. Clayton Kershaw was the #34 HS prospect in 2006, Tim Lincecum was the #31 college prospect. Starting just about now the draft rankings get real fluid.

Luke Bailey and Max Stassi are rising quickly (not that I'd touch a HS catcher with a ten-foot pole). So are 3B Matt Davidson and OFs Brian Goodwin, Jake Marsnick and A.J. Pollock. Callis is being stodgy.

11larkin11
04-15-2009, 10:57 PM
Drew Stubbs=NA?

ChatterRed
04-16-2009, 12:50 PM
McMillan, Cardenas, Concepcion, Larkin. None acquired; all from within.

Another time, another place. Different era.

dougdirt
04-16-2009, 01:52 PM
I am just going to say it now.... Grant Green worries me as far as being able to hit professional pitching.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-01-2009, 04:08 PM
I checked out 5 mock drafts (that have been recently updated) and four have the Reds taking Kyle Gibson and one taking Aaron Crow.

-Strasberg goes 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (#1 in all five)
-Crowe: 3, 5, 3, 4, 8
-White: (outside top 10), 3, 5, 2, 7
-Gibson: 8, 8, 8, 8, 6
-Matzek: 7, 6, 7, 7, 3

Non pitcher's:

-Ackley: 2, 2, 2, 6, 2
-Green: 5, 4, 4, 3, 5
-Tate: 6, 9, 6, (outside top 10), 4

Those appear to be the consensus top 8 at this point.

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2009, 04:21 PM
I would be thrilled if the Reds draft Gibson. He could reach the majors by 2011 and fit right in with Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Homer Bailey.

dougdirt
05-01-2009, 04:21 PM
-Strasberg goes 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (#1 in all five)
-Crowe: 3, 5, 3, 4, 8
-White: (outside top 10), 3, 5, 2, 7
-Gibson: 8, 8, 8, 8, 6
-Matzek: 7, 6, 7, 7, 3

Non pitcher's:

-Ackley: 2, 2, 2, 6, 2
-Green: 5, 4, 4, 3, 5
-Tate: 6, 9, 6, (outside top 10), 4

Those appear to be the consensus top 8 at this point.

That sounds pretty accurate. I am a little interested by the fact that really, no team has been linked to any player just yet. By now we usually have 5-10 teams linked to a player.

Mario-Rijo
05-01-2009, 05:07 PM
I am just going to say it now.... Grant Green worries me as far as being able to hit professional pitching.

How so Doug? I haven't seen him or really read much yet as it's still far enough away plus I didn't figure we'd have a shot at him. But what issue is it that makes you doubt him?

And what do you make of the LSU SS (LeMahieu), I know someone said to stay away from those guys but why?

I'd like to see some combination of best pitcher available in the 1st or Green if available, with Austin Maddox or Lemahieu in the sandwich round.

Like this:
Green
Maddox

Pitcher
Maddox/LeMahieu

Also I know how Doug feels about Crowe and I don't disagree he scares me but he is the closest arm to the majors, does anyone think we should make that gamble? And under what circumstances would you take him?

Mario-Rijo
05-01-2009, 05:12 PM
I checked out 5 mock drafts (that have been recently updated) and four have the Reds taking Kyle Gibson and one taking Aaron Crow.

-Strasberg goes 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (#1 in all five)
-Crowe: 3, 5, 3, 4, 8
-White: (outside top 10), 3, 5, 2, 7
-Gibson: 8, 8, 8, 8, 6
-Matzek: 7, 6, 7, 7, 3

Non pitcher's:

-Ackley: 2, 2, 2, 6, 2
-Green: 5, 4, 4, 3, 5
-Tate: 6, 9, 6, (outside top 10), 4

Those appear to be the consensus top 8 at this point.

Does anyone believe the Nats will take Strasburg? Isn't Boras Crowes representation as well? If they couldn't come to terms with him why would they draft Strasburg, and is the money Boras wants for Straburg just a ploy to make Washington skip him (and also to get a lot of money)?

dougdirt
05-01-2009, 05:33 PM
How so Doug? I haven't seen him or really read much yet as it's still far enough away plus I didn't figure we'd have a shot at him. But what issue is it that makes you doubt him?
He has had some troubles puting the bat on the ball in college. Guys like that worry me when selecting them in the top 10, especially when we have a guy who is showing no HR power with aluminum bats.



Also I know how Doug feels about Crowe and I don't disagree he scares me but he is the closest arm to the majors, does anyone think we should make that gamble? And under what circumstances would you take him?
I want to see the reports on him from this year, but I am not as opposed to taking him this year as I was last year. Last year was a stronger draft class (excluding Strasburg) and I felt there were better options available. If I had to choose between Kyle Gibson and Aaron Crow, I am not sure I wouldn't think long and hard about taking Crow.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-01-2009, 06:17 PM
Does anyone believe the Nats will take Strasburg? Isn't Boras Crowes representation as well? If they couldn't come to terms with him why would they draft Strasburg, and is the money Boras wants for Straburg just a ploy to make Washington skip him (and also to get a lot of money)?

Plus Washington has the 10th pick as well, so they might want to go with the cheaper (sign-able) pick with #1.

dougdirt
05-01-2009, 06:26 PM
Does anyone believe the Nats will take Strasburg? Isn't Boras Crowes representation as well? If they couldn't come to terms with him why would they draft Strasburg, and is the money Boras wants for Straburg just a ploy to make Washington skip him (and also to get a lot of money)?

The Nats MUST take Strasburg. After not signing last years first round pick they have to take the best player at #1. Top it off with its one of the best players in recent memory and they absolutely must take him and pay him. Make a signability pick with the #10 overall pick if you have to, but you just simply can't punt a pick like Strasburg.

OnBaseMachine
05-12-2009, 04:19 PM
Crow Sharper In Second Start

Posted May. 11, 2009 3:47 pm by J.J. Cooper
Filed under: Independent Leagues

As a pair of former college righthanders now pitching in the independent leagues as they await the June draft, it’s hard not to compare Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers. The two are both righthanders with plus fastballs (although Scheppers throws harder) and solid breaking stuff. And now they are throwing on roughly the same schedule.

In their first outings, Scheppers was clearly the sharper of the two. But this weekend while Scheppers struggled in St. Paul, Crow dominated Wichita Saturday night in an exhibition outing. Crow allowed two hits and struck out two in four scoreless innings.

"He was a lot sharper. He was around the zone a lot better," Fort Worth manager Chad Treadaway said. "That’s what I’m expecting–for him to be shaper every time out. To me he looked better as far his control."

Crow’s fastball sat at 92-94 mph according to Fort Worth’s radar gun. He also did a better job of throwing his slider to strikes and he mixed in some changeups.

"He threw real well. He had good command of his offspeed pitches," Cats pitching coach James Frisbie said. "He pitched a lot more relaxed and under control."

Crow will make his first official start of the season on Friday when Fort Worth hosts Grand Prairie. He’s expected to be stretched out to 70 pitches after throwing 59 on Saturday.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=838#more-838

Kingspoint
05-12-2009, 06:36 PM
One comment for this thread and only one.

I know what I want doesn't matter, as I think I already know who Jockety will take, but I want us to take the best College Pitcher that's available with our 1st Round pick, irregardless of whether or not he's a relief pitcher or a starting pitcher.

dougdirt
05-12-2009, 07:15 PM
One comment for this thread and only one.

I know what I want doesn't matter, as I think I already know who Jockety will take, but I want us to take the best College Pitcher that's available with our 1st Round pick, irregardless of whether or not he's a relief pitcher or a starting pitcher.

I don't think anyone has ever taken a college reliever that high in the history of the draft.... and if someone did, I would be very disappointed. You can get guys that throw 97 in the 2nd and 3rd round out of colleges with other good pitches.

Benihana
05-12-2009, 08:26 PM
No basis for this whatsoever, but I'm starting to get a feeling the Reds will end up with Aaron Crow.

Mario-Rijo
05-12-2009, 09:58 PM
No basis for this whatsoever, but I'm starting to get a feeling the Reds will end up with Aaron Crow.

Me 2.

KoryMac5
05-12-2009, 10:10 PM
No basis for this whatsoever, but I'm starting to get a feeling the Reds will end up with Aaron Crow.

I would have to think Crow will be gone by the time the Reds pick, but stranger things have happened.

11larkin11
05-12-2009, 10:56 PM
Crow was everyone's pick for the Reds up until about a couple weeks before the draft, when everyone switched to Gordon Beckham. Don't remember anyone picking Alonso though. I remember watching the draft with a friend who doesnt know anthing about college baseball/draft and he was so impressed i predicted the first 6 picks right, then laughed when the first one I got wrong was my own team's pick.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2009, 11:15 PM
Has Baseball America or any other publication released a "best available" list in order or who they think will go where yet? Or is it still too early.

Crow could be great for the Reds. I'd be very happy with him.

Kingspoint
05-12-2009, 11:31 PM
I don't think anyone has ever taken a college reliever that high in the history of the draft.... and if someone did, I would be very disappointed. You can get guys that throw 97 in the 2nd and 3rd round out of colleges with other good pitches.

There's been some, David Aardsma, for example. But, not too many.

Kingspoint
05-12-2009, 11:32 PM
What picks do we have after the 1st pick?

dougdirt
05-13-2009, 01:25 AM
There's been some, David Aardsma, for example. But, not too many.

Aardsma went 22nd overall. I can't recall a reliever drafted in the top 10, at least that was drafted as a reliever.

LoganBuck
05-13-2009, 01:34 AM
Aardsma went 22nd overall. I can't recall a reliever drafted in the top 10, at least that was drafted as a reliever.

Ryan Wagner was close enough at 14th overall. Yuck.

New Fever
05-13-2009, 02:04 AM
Aardsma went 22nd overall. I can't recall a reliever drafted in the top 10, at least that was drafted as a reliever.

Casey Weathers went 8th in 2007.

dougdirt
05-13-2009, 02:12 AM
Casey Weathers went 8th in 2007.

Good call. I think there were a few better players taken after Weathers.

New Fever
05-13-2009, 02:19 AM
Good call. I think there were a few better players taken after Weathers.

Yep, 5 of the next six players taken are top 50 prospects.

M2
05-13-2009, 12:12 PM
I just noticed how poorly the 1st round bats from the 2007 draft, outside of Matt LaPorta, are doing. Not a single one of them has an OPS above .800 at the moment. Figure Matt Wieters will break loose at some point. Ben Revere also has more of an OB/speed game, so you wouldn't red flag him. Yet the other 10 first round bats all are looking shaky.

Also, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer and Kyle Skipworth (all taken top six last year) are having rascally starts to their seasons. There's a pile of position players taken behind them doing pretty well, but, combined with 2007, it points out that drafting a bat isn't as easy as we tend to think it is.

dougdirt
05-13-2009, 12:23 PM
I just noticed how poorly the 1st round bats from the 2007 draft, outside of Matt LaPorta, are doing. Not a single one of them has an OPS above .800 at the moment. Figure Matt Wieters will break loose at some point. Ben Revere also has more of an OB/speed game, so you wouldn't red flag him. Yet the other 10 first round bats all are looking shaky.

Also, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer and Kyle Skipworth (all taken top six last year) are having rascally starts to their seasons. There's a pile of position players taken behind them doing pretty well, but, combined with 2007, it points out that drafting a bat isn't as easy as we tend to think it is.

Drafting a bat, drafting a glove, drafting an arm.... its all tough to do correctly on any kind of regular basis. Its obviously early for lots of last years guys and for a guy like Revere, his skillset doesn't seem to fit the FSL's parks the best but I think he will be all kinds of fine.

Alvarez had some contact issues in college and they are showing their ugly face as a pro. He needs to make some adjustments to his swing and tighten it up, at least later in the count.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-13-2009, 03:20 PM
Also, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer and Kyle Skipworth (all taken top six last year) are having rascally starts to their seasons. There's a pile of position players taken behind them doing pretty well, but, combined with 2007, it points out that drafting a bat isn't as easy as we tend to think it is.

Skipworth with a very Mesoraco-like beginning to his career.

OnBaseMachine
05-13-2009, 03:24 PM
MLB.com has some scouting reports up on some of the top draft prospects.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=tate

Mario-Rijo
05-13-2009, 06:23 PM
MLB.com has some scouting reports up on some of the top draft prospects.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=tate

Thanks OBM. Aaron Miller (OF) and Stephen Perez (SS) really stand out in that list.

Kingspoint
05-13-2009, 07:29 PM
If anyone thinks that we might take a Texas kid again, Mike Powers may be involved:

Players signed by Mike Powers

Player Name Position High Level Signed Year Signing Team Region

Homer Bailey P MLB 2004 Cincinnati Reds Texas
Paul Janish SS MLB 2004 Cincinnati Reds Texas

Kingspoint
05-13-2009, 08:37 PM
I guess I can make my prediction now.

If RHP Kyle Gibson from Missouri is available, I believe that Walk Jockety will take him with the #8 overall pick.

dougdirt
05-13-2009, 08:43 PM
I guess I can make my prediction now.

If RHP Kyle Gibson from Missouri is available, I believe that Walk Jockety will take him with the #8 overall pick.

I can only hope (unless Strasburg or Ackley are miraculously available). I rank Gibson as the #3 talent in this draft.

OnBaseMachine
05-13-2009, 08:45 PM
I can only hope (unless Strasburg or Ackley are miraculously available). I rank Gibson as the #3 talent in this draft.

Same here. I'm a huge Kyle Gibson fan. I think he'll be a solid major league starter as early as mid-2011.

Kingspoint
05-13-2009, 09:01 PM
I can only hope (unless Strasburg or Ackley are miraculously available). I rank Gibson as the #3 talent in this draft.

I guess that's not much of a bold prediction, then.

I'm trying to guess that the teams ahead of us are looking more at the younger pitching talent and the two SS prospects.

Benihana
05-13-2009, 09:28 PM
My prediction is Aaron Crow.

dougdirt
05-14-2009, 01:40 AM
My prediction is Aaron Crow.

I won't complain if we wind up with him either. I would prefer Gibson, but I don't have a problem with Crow as long as Ackley and Strasburg are gone.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2009, 01:47 AM
Max Scherzer
Aaron Crow
Kyle Gibson

Wow. Missouri really has churned out some great pitching prospects the past few years.

I'd be happy with Crow or Gibson as well.

edabbs44
05-14-2009, 05:51 PM
1st BA Mock Draft out today...they have Cincy taking Crow.

M2
05-14-2009, 06:12 PM
1st BA Mock Draft out today...they have Cincy taking Crow.

Are you sure they aren't just recycling last year's mock drafts?

Interesting to see Zach Wheeler shoot up to the top of the prep pitching ranks. You can pretty much bank on some kids catching fire as the draft approaches.

Meanwhile Luke Bailey, Austin Maddox and Brian Goodwin are prep players who seem to be dropping like stones.

Degenerate39
05-14-2009, 06:47 PM
I don't know why the Reds would take Crow. IMO they need the best available shortstop or centerfielder

M2
05-14-2009, 07:13 PM
Don't be surprised to hear Tim Wheeler get some mention in the top 10 in the coming week, though he's got a bit of a Chad Mottola feel to him.

I'm also thinking the Reds might be nursing a yen for a southpaw. Tyler Matzek and Rex Brothers could be options.

lollipopcurve
05-14-2009, 07:31 PM
Crow is a relatively safe arm from a PR standpoint -- he's held his high rank for a while now (since 08 on the Cape). Given the Reds' record drafting pitchers, and Buckley's track record favoring hitters, I could easily see them going relatively low risk with Crow.

I'd be fine with it. Last year he was known as the best college arm for a while, so we know he's got very good stuff. Some say he's got dangerous mechanics -- I don't know what to make of that. Given the scarcity of top arms in the system, Crow (or any top college arm) would become a nice piece to slot a couple years, give or take, behind Bailey.

edabbs44
05-14-2009, 07:40 PM
Seems like there are a few bats and the rest of the top talent is pitching. Crow, you can assume, is closer to the majors than others. Makes sense in my mind.

edabbs44
05-14-2009, 07:41 PM
I don't know why the Reds would take Crow. IMO they need the best available shortstop or centerfielder

I would agree if there was someone in Crow's neighborhood. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Benihana
05-14-2009, 07:42 PM
For whatever reason, I've never been in love with Crow.

I still yearn for Grant Green. If he doesn't slip, I really want to see Jiovanni Mier in the sandwich or Ryan Jackson in the 2nd-3rd.

Kingspoint
05-14-2009, 07:57 PM
I just noticed how poorly the 1st round bats from the 2007 draft, outside of Matt LaPorta, are doing. Not a single one of them has an OPS above .800 at the moment. Figure Matt Wieters will break loose at some point. Ben Revere also has more of an OB/speed game, so you wouldn't red flag him. Yet the other 10 first round bats all are looking shaky.

Also, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer and Kyle Skipworth (all taken top six last year) are having rascally starts to their seasons. There's a pile of position players taken behind them doing pretty well, but, combined with 2007, it points out that drafting a bat isn't as easy as we tend to think it is.

I thought the strength of the draft was from picks 20-60. I think half of those players will make the majors and do pretty well.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-14-2009, 10:02 PM
Grant Green's power numbers look somewhat weak this year.

It's a defensive oriented position, so as long as his glove his great I guess I can live with a punch and judy hitting SS.

I'd rather pursue a young SS via trade though.

dougdirt
05-14-2009, 10:27 PM
I don't know why the Reds would take Crow. IMO they need the best available shortstop or centerfielder
The Reds need to take the best talent on the board. The only two guys that fit that criteria in the top 10 are Grant Green, who I feel is extremely overrated and Dustin Ackley, who I would love to have, but will go #2 or #3.


Grant Green's power numbers look somewhat weak this year.

It's a defensive oriented position, so as long as his glove his great I guess I can live with a punch and judy hitting SS.

I'd rather pursue a young SS via trade though.
I would much rather take a shortstop with some potential with our other picks... Grant Green has some serious concerns in my eyes with his bat. In the top 10, I would stay far away from those types of guys.

Mario-Rijo
05-14-2009, 10:35 PM
I would much rather take a shortstop with some potential with our other picks... Grant Green has some serious concerns in my eyes with his bat. In the top 10, I would stay far away from those types of guys.

I am currently on the Perez bandwagon at SS, he seems like a really interesting option in the ealry rounds. He is an advanced HS SS from the reports on MLB.com, sounds like a good defender and solid offensive player.

That said Doug you keep saying that about Green but haven't went into detail as to why you have concerns. From what I have gathered his bat doesn't seem to lack anything too much except great power and it's not like he is David Eckstein with the bat. Probably a 15-20 HR guy. But i'd defer to you as I am sure you know more than I, can you say?

dougdirt
05-14-2009, 10:43 PM
I am currently on the Perez bandwagon at SS, he seems like a really interesting option in the ealry rounds. He is an advanced HS SS from the reports on MLB.com, sounds like a good defender and solid offensive player.

That said Doug you keep saying that about Green but haven't went into detail as to why you have concerns. From what I have gathered his bat doesn't seem to lack anything too much except great power and it's not like he is David Eckstein with the bat. Probably a 15-20 HR guy. But i'd defer to you as I am sure you know more than I, can you say?

I find it hard to believe that he is a 15-20 HR guy when he has all of 3 HR this season with an aluminum bat. I just don't see it. He has a very aggressive plate approach and very little power to speak of. Shortstop or not, thats not the kind of bat I think is worth taking inside the top 15 of the draft. He goes through stretches where he just looks lost at the plate and I just can't buy into the power.

LoganBuck
05-14-2009, 11:45 PM
Zach Wheeler has a terrible delivery. Yikes! Lots of moving parts, he would take a lot of work in the instructional league.

Luke Bailey had Tommy John surgery. Is he worth the risk in rounds 2 or 3?

camisadelgolf
05-15-2009, 04:08 PM
Crow's mechanics are dreadful. With that said, I'm not opposed to picking him as long as he throws at least 500 quality innings at the Major League level (with an ERA less than 4.00). At that point, I think you've made a $10mm signing bonus worth it.

dougdirt
05-15-2009, 04:16 PM
Crow's mechanics are dreadful. With that said, I'm not opposed to picking him as long as he throws at least 500 quality innings at the Major League level (with an ERA less than 4.00). At that point, I think you've made a $10mm signing bonus worth it.

Thats my feeling on him. There just aren't many guys who seem to be 'sure bets' in the sense that guys like Alonso/Beckham/Smoak had last year. Crow certainly has the stuff to succeed, and while I think he has a high chance of going down to an arm injury sooner than later, if Gibson isn't on the board I am all over Aaron Crow.

Mario-Rijo
05-15-2009, 04:43 PM
I find it hard to believe that he is a 15-20 HR guy when he has all of 3 HR this season with an aluminum bat. I just don't see it. He has a very aggressive plate approach and very little power to speak of. Shortstop or not, thats not the kind of bat I think is worth taking inside the top 15 of the draft. He goes through stretches where he just looks lost at the plate and I just can't buy into the power.

Fair enough. Do you see any scenario in which he would be the best choice at #8? And what would that scenario be?

_Sir_Charles_
05-15-2009, 05:53 PM
I agree a hitting machine in CF sign me up.

But, but....we've already got Taveras? :D

dougdirt
05-15-2009, 06:31 PM
Fair enough. Do you see any scenario in which he would be the best choice at #8? And what would that scenario be?

I don't see a scenario where that would happen. I wouldn't take him inside the top 15. Maybe thats just me though.

edabbs44
05-15-2009, 07:13 PM
Crow's mechanics are dreadful. With that said, I'm not opposed to picking him as long as he throws at least 500 quality innings at the Major League level (with an ERA less than 4.00). At that point, I think you've made a $10mm signing bonus worth it.

$10MM? I'd offer him slot money and the Walmart article on Matt Harrington and wait for the phone to ring. I would potentially email him the articles on how next year's draft is projected to be better than this year's. He'll sign.

Benihana
05-15-2009, 07:46 PM
$10MM? I'd offer him slot money and the Walmart article on Matt Harrington and wait for the phone to ring. I would potentially email him the articles on how next year's draft is projected to be better than this year's. He'll sign.

Agreed. Crow has very little bargaining power this year IMO. If he doesn't sign this time, he's headed down a very dangerous path.

edabbs44
05-20-2009, 10:48 PM
BA chat from today:


Ben (Centerville, OH): Who is the best fit for the Reds with their first round pick in the upcoming June draft, whom do you see available, and whom do you think they will take? My money is on one of Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, or Shelby Miller?.

Jim Callis: (2:01 PM ET ) I think the Reds almost certainly will take a pitcher, as there aren't a lot of bats worthy of going in the Top 10 this year. And with the arms, teams usually grab the top college pitchers first, so you may be right. I projected indy leaguer Aaron Crow in our first mock draft—we have tons of draft info available at baseballamerica.com, so go check that out. Purke's signability is a bit worrisome, but I could see the Reds taking Matzek or Miller.

edabbs44
05-20-2009, 10:53 PM
And an additional question from the same chat:


Dave (DC): Devin Mesoraco. Bust?

Jim Callis: (2:53 PM ET ) Sure looks that way.

dougdirt
05-20-2009, 10:58 PM
And an additional question from the same chat:

And yet there he is in Sarasota hitting just fine right now.

May numbers look good with an .801 OPS. April was rough, May has been fine. Silly statement to make at this point in time.

M2
05-20-2009, 11:14 PM
And yet there he is in Sarasota hitting just fine right now.

May numbers look good with an .801 OPS. April was rough, May has been fine. Silly statement to make at this point in time.

He can't catch, making the whole matter of whether he'll ever hit enough for a catcher a moot point (not that there's any real question about that either).

dougdirt
05-21-2009, 01:16 AM
He can't catch, making the whole matter of whether he'll ever hit enough for a catcher a moot point (not that there's any real question about that either).
How many times have you seen him play? How many times this year? And yeah, because a guy can't learn to catch who has athleticism... thats why guys can't ever transition to the position. To suggest someone at the age of 20 can never figure out how to become a better catcher (oh, and he has gotten much better since he was drafted) is just silly.

M2
05-21-2009, 07:52 AM
How many times have you seen him play? How many times this year? And yeah, because a guy can't learn to catch who has athleticism... thats why guys can't ever transition to the position. To suggest someone at the age of 20 can never figure out how to become a better catcher (oh, and he has gotten much better since he was drafted) is just silly.

No, it's just reality. It's not like he's some recent catcher conversion who's got athleticism to burn. Mesoraco has been a catcher for much of his life and he's not very good at it. He's been a consistently poor player for two years and at this point it's highly unlikely he's got any kind of meaningful major league future.

Could anything happen? No, not really. Most players who are as far behind as Mesoraco (he turns 21 next month) don't catch up. You can pretend otherwise (you almost surely will), but it looks like his future will be as an organizational player.

LoganBuck
05-21-2009, 08:09 AM
No, it's just reality. It's not like he's some recent catcher conversion who's got athleticism to burn. Mesoraco has been a catcher for much of his life and he's not very good at it. He's been a consistently poor player for two years and at this point it's highly unlikely he's got any kind of meaningful major league future.

Could anything happen? No, not really. Most players who are as far behind as Mesoraco (he turns 21 next month) don't catch up. You can pretend otherwise (you almost surely will), but it looks like his future will be as an organizational player.

I think you are being a little too tough on Mesoraco. Catchers take forever to develop. If he is ready by spring 2012 he will be doing fine. He has the tools. He needs time, and repetition.

lidspinner
05-21-2009, 10:03 AM
How many times have you seen him play? How many times this year? And yeah, because a guy can't learn to catch who has athleticism... thats why guys can't ever transition to the position. To suggest someone at the age of 20 can never figure out how to become a better catcher (oh, and he has gotten much better since he was drafted) is just silly.

I have watched DM play about 25 times in his span with us....the kid is not gonna make this team IMO, I do however think he still has tons of time to figure it out and turn his downside into an upside. I would still rate him as a above average prospect due to the fact that he is still young. I see him as a player like Keppinger.....he will eventually figure out how to fight his way through a decent batting average and he will learn how to control young pitchers....he will have value, I just think his value wont be high untill he is older, and at that point you might as well keep in in the minors to help young pitching. Just my opinion folks.

aubashbrother
05-21-2009, 10:36 AM
2009 Amateur Draft Mock #6 Round One
Andy Seiler/Minor League Ball

1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - The only question is how quickly he'll sign and for how much money. Previously: #1.

2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, OF, North Carolina - I think this is really starting to become a sure thing. Ackley's a legit hitter with the growing ability to man center field. If his arm holds up, there's nothing holding him back from becoming a star player. Previously: #2.

3. San Diego - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - Jason Churchill says the Padres like Donavan Tate, Grant Green, Kyle Gibson, and Crow. Crow's starting to heat up with another nice outing, and I think he pitches himself into this spot. Previously: #4.

4. Pittsburgh - Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO) - The bonus demands and commitment don't scare teams away when your performance is top-notch. Turner's pushed himself into the top ten, and this pick makes good sense. Previously: #28.

5. Baltimore - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - Despite a mediocre performance last weekend, White's still one of the best options in the draft. Baltimore's done well with its recent college picks, and White's got legitimate upside. Previously: #8.

6. San Francisco - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Matzek's still the best prep lefty, and I think the Giants will be picking between him and Zack Wheeler. Matzek's done well enough to keep his spot above Wheeler, making him the pick. Previously: #5.

7. Atlanta - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA) - Wheeler has continued his stretch of dominance, probably solidifying a top ten spot. If he's available to the Braves, I think there's no way he lasts to the eighth spot. Previously: #7.

8. Cincinnati - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints - Scheppers and Crow are considered unknown wildcards in terms of draft stock in this draft. I don't think either gets past the tenth pick, and Scheppers is probably a favorite of the Reds. Previously: #3.

9. Detroit - Grant Green, SS, USC - Another Churchill tidbit says that teams don't expect Green to last past the Tigers. Yes, they're in need of middle infield help both in the Majors and on the farm, but I just wonder how much money he'll need. Previously: #15.

10. Washington - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - In a bit of a surprise, Kyle Gibson slid to the tenth slot in my mock this week. I don't think the Nationals would choose Chad Jenkins or others over Gibson, and they'll spend the money. Previously: #6.

medford
05-21-2009, 11:42 AM
Can we just put Scheppers on the "do not draft board" please. at least not w/n the top 10, shoulders injuries scare me.

Scrap Irony
05-21-2009, 11:44 AM
All of the pitchers that will likely be available at #8 have some pretty serious questions. Cincinnati's gamble will be interesting. And it's not like an offensive player deserves to be that high. (Though Donavan Tate looks like a good bat at this point.)

And, as to Mesoraco, he doesn't look that great. 14% SB rate this season (and 17% for his two-year career), tons of passed balls (19 to date), and a questionable glove (18 E's in less than a full season's worth of games) pretty much nail the Unholy Trinity of Poor Catching Defense.

If he could slug .450 with a BA around .275, he might be someone to wait on. But his bat isn't all that either. Just doesn't make enough contact. Perhaps he "gets it" later on, but, as of now, that looks extremely unlikely. The best he can hope, with the career arc likely, is journeyman back-up.

This is one reason I'm all for drafting a catcher with the supplimental pick. Austin Maddox looks like a good choice there (and possible to get that far). I'd also like to see Josh Phegley from IU with that pick, though he probably won't make it that far down the draft list. Any catcher who scouts think will stick at the position and have a plus bat is worth that gamble, assuming no one else has slipped.

lollipopcurve
05-21-2009, 11:53 AM
Any catcher who scouts think will stick at the position and have a plus bat is worth that gamble, assuming no one else has slipped.

That's the rub -- a catcher who can defend AND be a plus bat. Very few amateur catchers qualify with certainty on both fronts.

I'd keep an eye on Trevor Coleman out of Missouri. He caught Gibson this year and Crow last year. Good defender, switch hitter who could develop a little bit with the stick. High school catchers, as we've seen with Mesoraco (I'm withholding judgment, but he's facing an uphill climb) are wild cards.

bucksfan2
05-21-2009, 11:58 AM
Can someone explain this to me.

Steven Strasburg is an amateur pitching in NCAA baseball. He is being represented by Scott Boras. If this happened in football or basketball he would be ruled ineligible. How is he able to have an agent, while also pitch in the NCAA?

DTCromer
05-21-2009, 12:07 PM
MLB draft is as simple as this: Best Player Available. I'd much rather take the safe bet in the 1st round.

Scrap Irony
05-21-2009, 12:13 PM
There is no safe bet with the 8th pick this year.

And this year there are some really solid HS catchers with both offensive and defensive tools. There're also some college catchers, too.

OnBaseMachine
05-21-2009, 12:27 PM
Can we just put Scheppers on the "do not draft board" please. at least not w/n the top 10, shoulders injuries scare me.

I agree. I want no part of Scheppers at #8.

OnBaseMachine
05-21-2009, 12:44 PM
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus released his first mock draft today. He has the Reds taking shortstop Grant Green with the #8 pick. I like Green more than most, so I would be happy with that pick. Goldstein says the Reds have been busy this spring scouting all the top college arms and a few of the top high school pitchers as well.

M2
05-21-2009, 12:46 PM
I think you are being a little too tough on Mesoraco. Catchers take forever to develop. If he is ready by spring 2012 he will be doing fine. He has the tools. He needs time, and repetition.

I am being tough on him, but, to be fair, he's been awful. If he was strong behind the plate, my opinion would be that, while his bat probably isn't going to materialize, it's certainly a viable argument to posit that catchers often take forever to learn how to hit.

Or if he was really good at the plate, I'd take the view that maybe he could play elsewhere (like Joey Votto).

Yet he's been neither to date. I recognize strange things do happen. But Mesoraco panning out as a catcher at this point would be exceedingly strange. There's every reason to think he's not going to make it. I imagine if you asked Chris Buckley which one pick he missed on the most in his career, the answer, without hesitation, would be Mesoraco.

M2
05-21-2009, 12:51 PM
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus released his first mock draft today. He has the Reds taking shortstop Grant Green with the #8 pick. I like Green more than most, so I would be happy with that pick. Goldstein says the Reds have been busy this spring scouting all the top college arms and a few of the top high school pitchers as well.

My take is Green is emerging as a potential steal. I know he's had the yips a bit this season, but he's still got the complete package.

P.S. - You doing the mock draft this season?

dougdirt
05-21-2009, 01:18 PM
All of the pitchers that will likely be available at #8 have some pretty serious questions. Cincinnati's gamble will be interesting. And it's not like an offensive player deserves to be that high. (Though Donavan Tate looks like a good bat at this point.)
What is a serious concern with a guy like Kyle Gibson?



And, as to Mesoraco, he doesn't look that great. 14% SB rate this season (and 17% for his two-year career), tons of passed balls (19 to date), and a questionable glove (18 E's in less than a full season's worth of games) pretty much nail the Unholy Trinity of Poor Catching Defense.
The SB% sucks. I haven't seen him play this year, but last year the issue wasn't the arm, it was the footwork. Thats something that can be fixed. As for the passed balls, he has 4 this season. Buster Posey has 7. Carlos Santana has 5. Matt Wieters has 2 (and a 19% SB rate). JP Arencibia has 2 (and a 17% SB rate). He is certainly a work in progress defensively (and offensively), but I think the passed balls issue is being made a lot larger than it should be.



If he could slug .450 with a BA around .275, he might be someone to wait on. But his bat isn't all that either. Just doesn't make enough contact. Perhaps he "gets it" later on, but, as of now, that looks extremely unlikely. The best he can hope, with the career arc likely, is journeyman back-up. The best we can hope is for a journeyman back up? You do know he is a 20 year old catcher right?


Split PA AB ISOP HR BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA
April 65 56 .089 1 13.8% 29.2% .194 54% 20% .143 .262 .232 .237
May 61 52 .212 1 9.8% 21.3% .316 38% 20% .250 .328 .462 .336
Sure looks like some adjustments being made by me. Lower strikeout rate, lots more power. Take a look at his BABIP in April along with his other numbers... to be honest, his peripherals aren't terrible right now in the FSL and they are trending in the right direction. Lets all step back from the ledge a little. Its May.



This is one reason I'm all for drafting a catcher with the supplimental pick. Austin Maddox looks like a good choice there (and possible to get that far). I'd also like to see Josh Phegley from IU with that pick, though he probably won't make it that far down the draft list. Any catcher who scouts think will stick at the position and have a plus bat is worth that gamble, assuming no one else has slipped.

Maddox is interesting, as he seems to be gaining a lot more buzz as a pitcher than as a catcher and Phegley doesn't look like he is going to stick at C. I would still like to grab Phegley, really like his bat and it looks like it will play just about anywhere.

OnBaseMachine
05-21-2009, 01:23 PM
My take is Green is emerging as a potential steal. I know he's had the yips a bit this season, but he's still got the complete package.

P.S. - You doing the mock draft this season?

I agree with ya. Draft-itis exists, and I think Green came down with a strong case of it. I think he can be an .800 OPS bat with average or better defense.

I'd like to participate in another mock draft this season but I'm not sure if I'll have the time to set it up. If you have the time, feel free to take over as "commish."

M2
05-21-2009, 01:27 PM
I agree with ya. Draft-itis exists, and I think Green came down with a strong case of it. I think he can be an .800 OPS bat with average or better defense.

I'd like to participate in another mock draft this season but I'm not sure if I'll have the time to set it up. If you have the time, feel free to take over as "commish."

I don't think I've got the bandwidth to organize it. About the best I'll be able to do is make some picks.

bucksfan2
05-21-2009, 01:29 PM
I was talking about this with a friend the other day. We were talking about catchers, the best catchers, and the catchers who will have to move off their position. He said if he could pick one catcher to build his team around it would be Y. Molina. I said not Joe Mauer? He thought that Mauer's days as a catcher are limited and will eventually have to move to 1b or DH. The same is becoming true with Victor Martinez who looks like his days as a C are numbered. The one recent C who possessed a great all around game in his prime was Pudge but how much of his durability was aided by the needle?

It got me to thinking do you really want to over value a C prospect because he has a + bat? Do you really want to invest in a C who likely will have to move off that position, or will only be able to play 4 out of every 5 games? Look at the Reds catching tandem this season. They are likely to get above average production out of an older, traded for catcher and a 27 year old rookie.

M2
05-21-2009, 02:18 PM
I was talking about this with a friend the other day. We were talking about catchers, the best catchers, and the catchers who will have to move off their position. He said if he could pick one catcher to build his team around it would be Y. Molina. I said not Joe Mauer? He thought that Mauer's days as a catcher are limited and will eventually have to move to 1b or DH. The same is becoming true with Victor Martinez who looks like his days as a C are numbered. The one recent C who possessed a great all around game in his prime was Pudge but how much of his durability was aided by the needle?

It got me to thinking do you really want to over value a C prospect because he has a + bat? Do you really want to invest in a C who likely will have to move off that position, or will only be able to play 4 out of every 5 games? Look at the Reds catching tandem this season. They are likely to get above average production out of an older, traded for catcher and a 27 year old rookie.

First off, Mauer is arguably the finest defensive catcher in baseball. I can see taking Molina over him in terms of pure defense, but Mauer's awfully good. Maybe he'll move off of catcher in a few years because his bat is so awesome and the Twins want to keep him healthy, yet that's nothing like Victor Martinez situation (where Martinez is a generally poor backstop).

Second, any player you take high in the draft, IMO, had better profile as a good hitter regardless of position. The classic example of a kid who didn't was Matt Bush, on whom the Padres wasted a #1 overall pick in 2004. So if you're going put high value on a catcher, it had best be on one with a plus bat. The Reds did that with a catcher named Joey Votto. I don't think anyone's upset he moved off of position.

Scrap Irony
05-21-2009, 05:07 PM
I really like Maddux's swing. It's super quick with 70+ power. He also has solid receiving skills, but is so tall (6'7") that he looks awkward. I don't care how he looks, he has a cannon and quick reactions behind the plate and serious power potential.

He's a steal, IMO, is he lasts to the supplimental round.

Phegley's bat is awesome and he's no worse than Ed Taubensee behind the plate. That in itself is faint praise and one reason I'd look to nab him either in the supplimental or 2nd round.

I'd also make a couple picks if we could generate some draft buzz.

11larkin11
05-21-2009, 05:35 PM
Josh Phegley is playing on the Big Ten Network right now.

JaxRed
05-21-2009, 05:41 PM
"I really like Maddux's swing. It's super quick with 70+ power. He also has solid receiving skills, but is so tall (6'7") that he looks awkward. I don't care how he looks, he has a cannon and quick reactions behind the plate and serious power potential. "




And he's from Jacksonville !!

TC81190
05-21-2009, 07:50 PM
I think we could use more pitching depth. We have a lot of pitchers in the minors right now, but other than Bailey, I don't think any of the advanced ones have any real potential to be anything more than 4/5 starters.

Hopefully we take a polished college arm that could start a little higher in the system.

OnBaseMachine
05-22-2009, 01:04 AM
Earlier today, Baseball America released a list of the top draft eligible prospects at each position. After reading the scouting report on Grant Green, he's my number one target after Kyle Gibson. I'm excluding guys like Strasburg and Ackley since they'll be off the board when the Reds pick.

BA describes Green as having excellent range at shortstop, outstanding hands, and the smooth and fluid actions of a Gold Glover. He also has an above average arm. They compare him to Troy Tulowitzki defensively. As for his bat, BA projects him as a .280-plus hitter with 15-20 home run potential. The only way I would pass on him is if Kyle Gibson is still on the board.

membengal
05-22-2009, 09:18 AM
But I thought Green wasn't hitting for much power this year with an aluminum bat in his hands. I have a hard time projecting him for more with a wooden bat in his hands.

edabbs44
05-22-2009, 09:23 AM
For some reason, all the discussion and reviews of Green reminds me a lot of Drew Stubbs before he was drafted.

DTCromer
05-22-2009, 09:37 AM
There is no safe bet with the 8th pick this year.

And this year there are some really solid HS catchers with both offensive and defensive tools. There're also some college catchers, too.

Well, then take the safest. :)

If it happens to be a catcher, then so be it. The last thing I'd worry about is Devin when making that pick.

Bumstead
05-22-2009, 12:34 PM
If Green isn't hitting for power with an aluminum bat why would anyone think he could hit 15-20 HR's at the MLB level with a wood bat?? I say take Gibson or Crow if you can. Expectations for this year will just have to be lowered based on how weak this draft is at the top. Crow will have to sign for slot as he can't afford not to.

Bum

OnBaseMachine
05-22-2009, 01:42 PM
But I thought Green wasn't hitting for much power this year with an aluminum bat in his hands. I have a hard time projecting him for more with a wooden bat in his hands.

Last year in the Cape Cod League, Green hit .348/.451/.547 with six home runs in 161 atbats with a wooden bat. He had a bit of a down season this year in the power department, but I (and BA) think he came down with a case of draft-itis.

Here is what Troy Tulowitzki did at the plate in his final year of college:

.349/.431/.599 - 1.030 OPS in 152 atbats.
12 2B/1 3B/8 HR
14 BB/35 K

Compared to Grant Green's final year in college:

.372/.436/.573 - 1.009 OPS in 199 atbats
18 2B/5 3B/4 HR
19 BB/35 K

M2
05-22-2009, 01:43 PM
If Green isn't hitting for power with an aluminum bat why would anyone think he could hit 15-20 HR's at the MLB level with a wood bat

He's got a .573 SLG this season. He had a .537 SLG during in the Cape Cod league last summer with a wood bat. He had a .644 SLG during the 2008 college season.

That's not a lack of power. His SLG is down a bit from last season, but that might be sample size as much as anything else.

If you take his entire USC career to date it adds up to 157 games, just about a full season of baseball. He's got 226 hits (good for a .358 BA), 47 D, 20 T, 15 HR. He's not a mondo HR hitter, but he's got excellent gap power.

If the complaint is that he's not going to hit like young Alex Rodriguez, then you're right, but no one's going to hit like that. Green has been a plus bat everywhere he's played, not just for a SS.

Some team is going to ignore the petty groupthink on this kid and get him for millions less than he would have cost had the draft been held before the college season.

Bumstead
05-22-2009, 01:49 PM
wasn't expecting A-Rod...who would? IMHO, the two pitchers I mentioned have better potential and are better bets for success. The Reds need to continue to draft the best player available in the early rounds. It should be interesting to see how it all works out.

Bum

lollipopcurve
05-22-2009, 01:59 PM
Grant Green -- I'm glad we've got a lightning rod for this years #1 pick.

Tough to pass on this kid. But I'd say this -- if the proper comp is Tulowitzki, then there may be more vulnerability in Green's bat than some think. Tulo's bat has gone in the crapper since 2007. Green is not a high OBP guy (neither is Tulo), and the power looks a little shaky.

Someone made the comparison to Stubbs -- I think it's got some validity. With Green, you're investing some hope in his tools. Likely not as much as was required with Stubbs, but I do think the shiny SS toolbox is Green's calling card at the top of the first round.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-22-2009, 02:31 PM
Even with his HR's down this year, I will be very excited if the Reds can get Grant Green at #8.

Much more excited than I was when Stubbs was taken #8 in 2006.

Lockdwn11
05-22-2009, 02:41 PM
Green isn't hitting many homers this year it's true but just last summer he hit .348 (56-for-161) with 6 home runs to go along with 12 doubles and 21 RBI in the Cape Cod League with a wooden bat. I have a hard time thinking that the power just dried up. It's there he is just having an off year and if he wasn't the Reds would have no shot at him because he would be long gone before the 8th pick.

lollipopcurve
05-22-2009, 02:53 PM
I'll be stunned if Green is there when the Reds pick. A toolsy college SS, in a year that's real short on bats, is about as good as it gets for teams at the top of the first round.

But I'd love for him to drop, no doubt.

cbowen2112
05-22-2009, 02:59 PM
I would like to see a nice LHP come in and be dominant. Not sure of any besides #1 will come out of the first round, perhaps Minor from Vany? He looked sharp the last two years.

M2
05-22-2009, 03:32 PM
I'll be stunned if Green is there when the Reds pick. A toolsy college SS, in a year that's real short on bats, is about as good as it gets for teams at the top of the first round.

But I'd love for him to drop, no doubt.

Having him on the board would certainly be ideal for the Reds. If they go with an arm like Gibson or Crow, it's hard to fault them, but you've got to think Green hits all of the right buttons with Chris Buckley (toolsy, productive, up-the-middle college player).

To put it another way, he's definitely the position player you want to have hanging around if there's not an arm you adore around when you pick.

Mario-Rijo
05-22-2009, 04:26 PM
Having him on the board would certainly be ideal for the Reds. If they go with an arm like Gibson or Crow, it's hard to fault them, but you've got to think Green hits all of the right buttons with Chris Buckley (toolsy, productive, up-the-middle college player).

To put it another way, he's definitely the position player you want to have hanging around if there's not an arm you adore around when you pick.

Absolutely. Behind Strasburg and a CF playing Ackley he's my favorite pick and frankly if Ackley were there I'd still consider taking Green over him just because of the lack of a quality SS in the system. A pretty sizeable risk I know but I am a sucker for a good SS. After Green it drops off a bit for me but I really am partial to college LHP's with polish which is why Mike Minor is on my radar, I certainly wouldn't expect the Reds to draft him with better stuff guys available, but I for one wouldn't be all that discouraged if they took him. I also like Tyler Scaggs and Kyle Gibson. My preference would be to select a guy who could contribute in the next 2-3 years though.

My preferential order:
Strasburg
Green
Ackley
Gibson
White
Minor
Crow
Scaggs
Matzek

OnBaseMachine
05-22-2009, 06:54 PM
If Grant Green doesn't fall to the Reds then I hope they take Kyle Gibson (if available) and then a HS shortstop like Jiovanni Mier with their supplemental pick. I like Mier. He projects as a plus defender and he has some potential in his bat.

tripleaaaron
05-26-2009, 11:01 PM
I completely agree as I said the same thing in an earlier thread although I would even go as far as passing on Green and grabbing a Gibson early and then picking up Mier (if available).

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2009, 02:07 AM
Draft Preview: Middle infielders
2009 group has talent but it appears to be unpredictable

By Jonathan Mayo / MLB.com

05/26/09 11:00 AM ET

There never seem to be enough true shortstops. Every draft, there's a hope more will come to fill up Major League systems everywhere, but it never seems to work out that way.

Last year wasn't too bad at the top of the Draft, with the Beckhams, but it dropped precipitously after that. This year, it's unclear whether it will measure up.

"There are some guys who pound the ball a little who you project at second base," said one scouting director, trying to find a sliver lining. "You need a guy who can run, good hands, good feet and there aren't many of those guys. That's a shame."

It's not likely, then, that too many of the names below will go in the opening round, but with the need organizations have, these are all players who will find interested parties sooner rather than later -- all the more reason to tune in to MLB.com. The site will offer live coverage and analysis of the entire First-Year Player Draft on June 9-11, on MLB.com/Live, where host Vinny Micucci will be joined by MLB.com Draft expert Jonathan Mayo and Major League Scouting Bureau director Frank Marcos. Coverage begins at 6 p.m. ET on June 9, noon on June 10 and 11:30 a.m. on June 11.

Daniel Fields, University of Detroit Jesuit HS, Mich.: Fields is the son of Bruce Fields, now the Indians' Minor League hitting coordinator, so he knows a little something about hitting. He hits from the left side of the plate and he shows good speed and athleticism on both sides of the ball. Like many players in the North, Fields couldn't be seen early, but many teams were traveling to see him late in the spring to get a good evaluation. He won't be the first shortstop taken off the board, but he could be among the first few high school middle infielders to go.

Nick Franklin, Lake Brantley HS, Fla.: Lake Brantley has been a veritable baseball factory and Franklin is the next product coming off the assembly line. He swings the bat well with a little future power potential. He's got wiry strength and decent speed. Defensively, he's solid and should be able to stay at short. He gets the ultimate compliment of being a real "baseball player" from scouts.

Mychael Givens, HB Plant HS, Fla.: A talented two-way player, there are some who like Givens as a pitcher who can touch the upper 90s at times. That arm strength plays very well from short, as you might imagine, and he's got good defensive actions overall. As a hitter, he's not as raw as some high schoolers, though he still has some work to do. He runs well and it looks like he should have some decent power down the line.

Grant Green, University of Southern California: Better late than never. Green came out of the Cape Cod League as perhaps the best hitting prospect in the Class of 2009, but suffered through what most felt was a lackluster performance for much of the season. He was turning it on late, however, and sometimes that last impression is the best one. When he's firing on all cylinders, he's a five-tool player at a premium position and it's still quite possible he'll be drafted as such.

Ryan Jackson, University of Miami: There's no question that Jackson can play shortstop defensively. In fact, especially among the college set, he might be the best defender in the country, a Gold Glover in the waiting. There's always been a question about his bat and his subpar junior season offensively didn't help answer that question. Playing at a big program -- and his defense, of course -- should help his Draft status where his offensive performance didn't.

Jeff Kobernus, California: One of the few true second basemen who could go early, Kobernus stands out as one of the better all-around college bats. He's got great bat speed and control and that should help him hit for some power down the road. He can run a bit and, despite what one might think about second basemen at the amateur level, he's pretty good with the glove. He's not a premium bat who goes super-early, but he's the kind of solid all-around college performer who could get taken off the board by the second round.

DJ LeMahieu, LSU: LeMahieu was probably more intriguing when he was a shortstop at a major college program, but he got moved over to second midway through the season and not everyone is convinced he can stay there -- meaning a move to third or a corner outfield spot may be in his future. He's had a decent year offensively, but not overwhelming. Throw in the fact he's a Draft-eligible sophomore and figuring out when he goes in the Draft is a very difficult question to answer.

Jiovani Mier, Bonita HS, Calif.: The aforementioned scout wasn't including Mier in his opinion of the position. Mier is a high school shortstop who will definitely be able to stay there. He's got a great feel for defense, with a good arm and outstanding instincts. He might be better defensively than with the bat right now, but there's plenty to like about his swing as well. He could very well be the first prep middle infielder taken off the board.

Chris Owings, Gilbert HS, SC: Unlike Mier, many feel Owings will best be suited by moving to the other side of second base, where he could be a decent offensive-minded second baseman who hits for average. He runs pretty well and has some ability to swing the bat. His tools don't jump out at you, but he was playing well down the stretch of his season, just in time to help his Draft stock in the remaining weeks.

David Renfroe, South Panola HS, Miss.: It's unclear just where Renfroe's future lies on a baseball field. He plays shortstop and pitches in high school, and some may see him as a pitcher at the next level. Others might see him slide over to third defensively, and one scout said that with his agility and arm strength, he could see him behind the plate, a la Russell Martin. He's got good tools across the board offensively and his bat will play anywhere. He's a great athlete who quarterbacked one of the top high school football teams in the country, so watching him at the next level could be a lot of fun.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090525&content_id=4956606&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2009, 02:14 AM
Green in great situation as Draft nears
Shortstop has chance to be prize selection in thin class

By Lisa Winston / MLB.com

05/26/09 2:00 AM ET

If the saying is true that timing is everything in life, then the timing just might be perfect for Southern California shortstop Grant Green.

After getting off to an excruciatingly slow start in 2009, the 21-year-old Anaheim native heated up big-time when it counted. And as no less a Draft expert than MLB.com's own Jonathan Mayo so aptly put it, "While in other walks of life, the first impression is the most important, the last impression in Draft season can have the most impact."

Add to that the fact that there may be no better time to be a polished five-tool college product than this year, when the crop of college position players is the thinnest it's been in recent memory, and Green's Draft prospects start looking better and better.

"The best thing to be right now is a college position player because there will be people who want to take that guy, no matter what," said Eddie Bane, the director of amateur scouting for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

His theory on why there is so little depth in that department?

"We just did a great job of signing the top high school kids a few years ago so there wasn't much left to choose from."

Not that scouts overlooked Green then. He was a 14th-round pick by San Diego in 2006, but opted to head an hour north from his hometown of Anaheim to Los Angeles to play his college ball for the Trojans.

Coming into the current college season, the 21-year-old Anaheim native was the top-rated hitter in the class, with impressive credentials.

In 2007 he became USC's first true freshman to start at shortstop in almost a decade, earning Pac-10 Co-Freshman of the Year honors, hitting .316 and finishing the season with a streak of 17 errorless games.

As a sophomore, Green batted .390 with nine homers, 46 RBIs and 10 steals to go with a .644 slugging percentage and wound up the season with an errorless streak of 29 games as he earned All Pac-10 accolades.

Green followed up that season by dominating in the Cape Cod League, hitting .348 with six homers and 21 RBIs for the Chatham A's and earning the league's Most Outstanding Pro Prospect award, which in the past had gone to such future stars as Mark Teixeira, Billy Wagner, Robin Ventura and Ron Darling.

Small wonder that most assumed he'd be among the first few players taken in the 2009 Draft and the cream of the crop when it came to hitters.

But Green got off to a start that could only kindly be called slow. In his first 13 games he batted just .234 and struggled on both sides of the field.

Some pundits called it "Draftitis." They recognized the syndrome, and had seen it before in some players who have gone on to have pretty nice big league careers.

"There are guys like Ryan Howard and Johnny Damon, who once they got to that 'finishing tape' as college juniors or high school seniors became so consumed with the Draft that their game took a bit of a hit," said one National League scout. "They take the proverbial test and struggle with it but once they get past it they're fine. I think he falls into this category."

And while the stumble may have been exacerbated by a few minor injuries, Green himself admits that it was more psychological than physical.

"I was putting too much pressure on myself, trying to do too much," admits Green, who still finished the season with a team-high .374 average in 54 games, hardly the stuff No. 8 hitters are made of. "At first I didn't trust the people hitting behind me and so I was trying to get the big hit every single time up instead of doing what I do best, getting on base, stealing a couple of bags and trusting the people coming up behind me."

Green's Draft stock subsequently dropped, especially with those whose only exposure to him had been over the first part of 2009.

But Green turned it around, bit by bit, including a tear after that unlucky 13 games to start in which he batted .526 in his next 14 games. He batted .389 in May and he went hitless just five times in his final 40 games after taking 0-fers four times in his first 13.

Consultation and conversation with his head coach, 17-year Major League veteran Chad Kreuter, and coach Tom House helped Green turn things around.

"They reiterated the fact that doing too much was only going to hurt me, and when I started trusting them I started hitting again and my average started to climb," said Green, who finished the year with a team-high 19 doubles and 16 steals. "Our offense was really down and so I felt as the veteran I had to do more than I needed to."

Green's power numbers dipped from nine homers in 2008 to just four in '09, but power has never been his game. Though he is viewed as that rare five-tool middle infielder, power for a shortstop is not the same as power for a corner infielder or outfielder.

His overall game is highlighted by a live bat, speed and impressive defensive potential, with a solid glove, good range, accurate arm and soft hands. In his first two college campaigns he'd drawn comparisons to another pair of former Southern California-based shortstops -- Long Beach State duo Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria.

The speed is still there. The grace in the field, the strong arm, soft hands and fluid motions are all present and accounted for. Yet Green struggled on defense overall, finishing the season with 18 errors.

When asked what he thinks led to the error total, he mans up to an early lack of extra effort, something he made up for in the second half of the season.

"It was about not doing what I needed to do during practice," said Green. "I wasn't taking as many ground balls as I should have been, and I needed to be taking more at game speed. I was thinking since it was my last season I'd be fine, but that didn't work for me. So I started taking everything in practice like it was in a game and it started carrying over. My fielding percentage came up and I felt more comfortable. "

Knowing that baseball, and especially the pro game, is a never-ending series of ups and downs, Green thinks he will call upon many of the lessons he learned this spring in the future.

"This is the first time I've ever really failed in the college game at the beginning of a season and now I realize that even if you start slow, if you finish on a good note you can still have a successful season," he said. "And talking to my coaches, I've gotten a better understanding of the game, a higher 'baseball IQ.'"

He's also learned to temper his emotional game.

"I had a bad problem in high school of taking my at-bats into the field and vice versa," said Green. "I worked with Coach Kreuter a lot on staying on an even keel the whole game, and just worrying about the one pitch, the one moment. I think that is the one thing I've learned here that's helped me the most."

So now, with the Trojans' regular season complete and no postseason plans, Green waits for June 9 to roll around, when he'll find out just where his future lies.

Now it comes down to whether teams look at the big final picture or the snapshots they may have gotten along the way. The big picture on Grant Green would seem to show that there is a lot more to like than to worry about.

The scouting fraternity is also intrigued to find out what will happen, though most prognosticators still expect his name to be called early.

"There are guys out there who have never seen Grant do much of anything," said one AL scout. "But he's performed for some, and someone is going to pay a huge price for him."

Not that once he's drafted he'll be heading off to get his pro career started right away. One more little fillip to Green's situation is the fact that his adviser/agent is none other than Scott Boras, whose name is anything but synonymous with "sign quickly and start playing."

MLB.com will offer live coverage and analysis of the entire First-Year Player Draft on June 9-11, on MLB.com/Live, where host Vinny Micucci will be joined by MLB.com Draft expert Jonathan Mayo and Major League Scouting Bureau director Frank Marcos. Coverage begins at 6 p.m. ET on June 9, noon on June 10 and 11:30 a.m. on June 11.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090526&content_id=4957942&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

icehole3
05-27-2009, 08:13 AM
Is there a review of the pitchers and top power hitters coming out HS and College?

edabbs44
05-27-2009, 09:05 AM
Is there a review of the pitchers and top power hitters coming out HS and College?

BA's draft preview came out yesterday and has been up on the site for a week or so now.

icehole3
05-27-2009, 01:12 PM
Thx:thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2009, 02:07 PM
Draft Tracker May 27

Staff Report
May 27, 2009

With only two weeks until the draft, this will be the final installment of BA's Draft Tracker this year, as we'll start unveiling our state-by-state lists this week. In the next two weeks leading up to the big day, it'll be all Draft Tracker all the time over on our Draft Blog.

Three Up

David Renfroe, ss/rhp, South Panola HS, Batesville, Miss.
Renfroe has two-way talent and ability but has been telling teams he wants to be a position player. He has third-base tools at the plate and in the field, with good infield actions defensively, plenty of arm strength, a surprising feel for hitting and average-to-plus raw power. That raw power was evident last year at the Under Armour/Baseball Factory All-American Game in Wrigley Field, where he homered of Canadian lefty Jake Eliopoulos. He also struck out five in two innings, though, and has flashed two plus pitches at times off the mound. He's locked in to Ole Miss, where his dad pitched, but he could be trying to work a pre-draft deal to a team that wants him as a hitter.

Matt Bashore, rhp, Indiana
Bashore piqued the interest of scouts when he hit 94 mph last spring, but then he came down with a tender arm and pitched out of the bullpen in the Cape Cod League during the summer. He started slowly this spring but had turned in five quality starts in his last six outings heading into the last week of the regular season. He's attractive because he's a lefty with size (6-foot-3, 200 pounds), velocity (his fastball sits at 90-91 mph and has peaked at 95 this year), a pair of solid breaking pitches and an effective splitter/changeup. Bashore has an easy delivery and has improved his control this year. He gives Indiana a third player with a chance to get popped in the first two rounds, joining righthander Eric Arnett and catcher Josh Phegley.

Robbie Erlin, lhp, Scotts Valley (Calif.) HS
Multiple scouts have said the same thing about Erlin: "If he were two inches taller, you'd be talking about him as a first rounder." One scout regretted that it had to come down to that. "That sucks that what we do for a living is look at kids and cookie cut them like that." Erlin is a 5-foot-11, 170-pound lefthander from the Santa Cruz area. Despite the small frame, he still has some life to his fastball, pitching at 89-92 mph. He commands the pitch to both sides of the plate and also has a well-above-average curveball—a hammer he can throw for strikes in any count. He can get underneath his changeup a little bit, but it too has a chance to be above-average. Erlin is regarded as a great kid and is committed to Cal Poly.

Three Down

Alex White, rhp, North Carolina
White still has top shelf stuff: a fastball that sits 91-94 mph and has topped out at 97, a sharp slider and a split-finger fastball that he uses as a changeup and results in a lot of missed bats. Still, he can struggle with his command and often falls victim to the big inning. That was the case on May 22 in the ACC Tournament when he got bounced after getting one out in the third inning and giving up eight runs. A few were metal-bat hits, but some of the balls were squared up as well. With plenty of scouts on hand, including some scouting directors with high picks, it wasn't a good time to have his worst outing this season. White is still likely to go in the top half of the first round, but his stock slipped a little bit.

Mark Fleury, c, North Carolina
Like his Friday-night battery mate, Fleury's stock is falling late in the year. The Tar Heels catcher has stopped hitting, perhaps wearing down from a heavy catching load late in the season, and might slip out of the first five or six rounds altogether. On top of that, he's been relegated to DH duty lately with freshman backstop Jacob Stallings healthy, so scouts aren't getting final looks at Fleury behind the plate. He's still a nice package, as a lefthanded hitter with offensive ability, solid defense and leadership skills, but the bat has taken a step backwards in recent weeks.

Brooks Raley, lhp/of, Texas A&M
Another player that's struggled at the wrong time is Aggies two-way talent Brooks Raley. In his May 22 start in the Big 12 tournament against Oklahoma, Raley lasted just one inning, giving up seven runs before getting the hook. He works mainly with an 87-90 mph sinker, a slider and a changeup, and he also has a four-seam fastball that peaks at 93 mph and a curveball. Scouts respect his ability to compete and to command all of his offering, but he doesn't have a true out pitch, which will leave him with little margin for error in pro ball. Though Raley has a clean delivery, they also wonder how well he'll hold up at a wiry 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds. A sophomore-eligible, he's spooking clubs by not giving them any inkling as to his asking price or agent, so he could last much longer in the draft than his talent would dictate.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-tracker/2009/268179.html

LoganBuck
05-27-2009, 02:37 PM
Does Alex White have the yips as well, or is he really risky? With his "command" issues one might wonder if he has an underlying arm injury.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2009, 02:54 PM
Corner-infield hitters in demand
Several prospects offer power and versatility in Draft
By Jonathan Mayo / MLB.com

05/27/09 11:00 AM ET

There's a prototype out there for corner infielders and every year scouts scour the amateur landscape looking for players who fit the type.

It usually doesn't have much to do with defensive acumen, though having a good glove -- particularly at third -- doesn't hurt. No, the mold for those who play the corner often starts and ends with the bat. The ideal for first and third basemen is that they can hit, with plenty of power.

Finding guys who can do that and have the agility to stay at third base is always a challenge. Figuring out which of the corner infielders will have power that will translate to the pro game is the key to evaluating the position.

"You always hope to find legitimate power bats at the corners," one NL scout said. "That's often easier said than done and in this class, you'll have to dream more about power potential. In a perfect world, you'll find some real middle-of-the-order potential at first and third."

Ironically, the top player in this group may end up being a center fielder when all is said and done. And while he's put up good power numbers this year, most don't see him as that protypical corner infielder. That being said, Dustin Ackley won't have to wait long to hear his name called and very likely will be the first hitter selected on Draft day.

MLB.com will offer live coverage and analysis of the entire First-Year Player Draft on June 9-11, on MLB.com/Live, where host Vinny Micucci will be joined by MLB.com Draft expert Jonathan Mayo and Major League Scouting Bureau director Frank Marcos. Coverage begins at 6 p.m. ET on June 9, noon on June 10 and 11:30 a.m. on June 11.

Here are some of the top names at the corners who could be drafted pretty highly starting on the 9th.

Dustin Ackley, University of North Carolina: Most agree Ackley's the best pure bat in the Draft class, especially among the college set. After that, opinions vary on the Golden Spikes semifinalist. Ackley has added more power this year, with 20 homers through 58 games (to go along with a .399 average), but it's unclear just how much pop he'll have as a pro. As a result, he doesn't fit the aforementioned mold for the position. Combine that with his above-average speed and many teams will move him to center field as a pro, provided his elbow that had Tommy John surgery last year is 100 percent.

Bobby Borchering, Bishop Verot HS, Fla.: Borchering is one of those high schoolers at the hot corner who might not be able to stay there long-term. If he had to move, it'd be across the diamond to first. The good news is that regardless of where he plays, the bat will work just fine. Borchering has ridiculous bat speed from both sides of the plate and should hit for average and power. If Ackley's the first corner guy to go off the board, Borchering could be the first prepster in this group to get selected.

Matt Davidson, Yucaipa HS, Calif.: Davidson has been on radar screens for quite some time, enticing scouts with his outstanding raw power. He hasn't always reached that power in game action and struggled quite a bit as a junior. Davidson worked hard on his conditioning and bounced back this year following a strong showing at the AFLAC game last summer, putting him firmly into the early-rounds picture.

Chris Dominguez, Louisville: If the name sounds familiar, it's because Dominguez was taken as a Draft-eligible sophomore in the fifth round by the Rockies a year ago, but didn't sign. His raw power continues to be intriguing, just as his inconsistency has been puzzling. Dominguez has cut down on his strikeouts at Louisville, but any team that takes him will know there will likely be some swinging and missing to go along with the power coming from the Golden Spikes semifinalist. He's got a strong arm and should be able to stay there, even if he's never a natural defender overall. Don't be surprised to see him improve his Draft placement by a couple of rounds.

Tommy Mendonca, Fresno State: Left-handed-hitting third baseman are always a hot commodity, so it's a little surprising there hasn't been that much buzz surrounding the Golden Spikes semifinalist and 2008 College World Series Most Outstanding Player. Mendonca can be streaky, but he's got some power -- he's among the nation's leaders in home runs -- and as his College World Series performance attests, he seems to enjoy hitting in big spots. Like Dominguez, Mendonca does strike out a bit, but with a chance to bring power from the left side and good defense at third to the table, don't be surprised if he sneaks up Draft boards late.

Jonathan Meyer, Simi Valley HS, Calif.: Meyer's played all over the place for his high school team -- including on the mound -- but looks like he'll either be a third baseman or a catcher as a pro. He's got a strong arm and good defensive instincts which play better at third than at shortstop, where he plays the most in the infield these days. Meyer may not have the power that fits the prototype, but he's got a solid approach with some bat speed and he's learning to switch-hit. He's not an elite, first-round guy, but his instincts plus his makeup should make it certain he won't have to wait too long.

Rich Poythress, University of Georgia: Another Golden Spikes semifinalist, it's hard not to look at what the big first baseman has done against quality competition in the SEC. He's got one standout tool -- his power -- and will be almost certainly limited to first base as a pro. His power is more strength than bat-speed, so some aren't sure just how much pop he'll show as pitching gets better. However, you're not going to get better amateur competition than what he has faced in that conference. There will certainly be teams who'll look at that and his numbers and think he's more than worthwhile early on.

Kyle Seager, University of North Carolina: The other Tar Heels -- Ackley and RHP Alex White -- get most of the ink, but Seager's not a bad ballplayer in his own right. He played second for the first couple of years in college and switched to third this season. He can handle both positions well defensively. Seager is a smooth hitter who handles the bat well, though he doesn't have the power that scouts usually like to see from a corner guy. His offensive skills do profile better at second, though he could end up having a very nice career as a utility guy at both spots.

Richard Shaffer, Providence Sr. HS, N.C.: Shaffer was creating a lot of early buzz as a high school third baseman with some serious bat speed and power, both now and in the future. Even if he outgrew third and had to move to first, Shaffer had the kind of bat that would play in either spot. But then he got hurt -- a hamate bone injury in his left hand -- forcing him out of action, in a way. He ended up pitching, and up to 93 mph, while letting the hand heal. When he returned to hitting, he didn't have any power to speak of. That's fairly common for people returning from that injury and there are probably still some teams who'd consider taking him based on his past rather than his present.

Ryan Wheeler, Loyola Marymount: One of three Wheelers (not related) hoping to get drafted high, he'll probably be the last one to go. After a solid sophomore season and a fine Cape Cod League campaign, there was hope he might jump up as a left-handed college bat with some pop. He's been OK as a junior and definitely shows some ability with the bat, good plate discipline and some extra-base power. That being said, he's more likely to be a first baseman who gets taken in the second tier of college hitters in this Draft.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090527&content_id=4978560&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Homer Bailey
05-27-2009, 03:13 PM
MLB Cuts Slots for June Draft

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/05/mlb-cuts-slots-for-june-draft.html


According to Murray Chass on Sunday (hat tip to Baseball America):

Bud Selig has repeatedly cautioned clubs about the economy, and at the owners’ meeting last Thursday he told them he was doing something about it and sternly advised them to listen. The commissioner told the owners that his office planned to roll back the recommended signing bonuses for the June 9 amateur draft by 10 percent.

Baseball America's Jim Callis confirmed Selig's plan. The slots are confidential, but BA has estimates for last year's recommendations if you're a subscriber. So what's the penalty for going over slot? According to Chass:

Clubs enrage Selig when they exceed their slotted numbers, and he lets them know his feelings.

Scary! Callis' take:

MLB can’t force teams to accept its recommendations, but it has exerted pressure on owners to toe the line and fined clubs that didn’t follow a set procedure before paying an above-slot bonus.

fearofpopvol1
05-27-2009, 03:43 PM
MLB Cuts Slots for June Draft

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/05/mlb-cuts-slots-for-june-draft.html

Yeah, good luck with that. Won't stop Strasburg from getting his millions and millions.

New Fever
05-27-2009, 03:46 PM
Keith Law's Mock Draft

8. Cincinnati Reds

Grant Green, ss, USC: They see Green as a shortstop long-term, which is the main controversy with this player right now among scouts. They also love Tyler Matzek and could go that way if Matzek slides past San Francisco and Atlanta balks at his price.

M2
05-27-2009, 04:06 PM
I'll say this about Matzek: if you're going to draft a HS arm in the top 10 picks, he's the one to get.

Brutus
05-27-2009, 04:19 PM
Absolutely. Behind Strasburg and a CF playing Ackley he's my favorite pick and frankly if Ackley were there I'd still consider taking Green over him just because of the lack of a quality SS in the system. A pretty sizeable risk I know but I am a sucker for a good SS. After Green it drops off a bit for me but I really am partial to college LHP's with polish which is why Mike Minor is on my radar, I certainly wouldn't expect the Reds to draft him with better stuff guys available, but I for one wouldn't be all that discouraged if they took him. I also like Tyler Scaggs and Kyle Gibson. My preference would be to select a guy who could contribute in the next 2-3 years though.

My preferential order:
Strasburg
Green
Ackley
Gibson
White
Minor
Crow
Scaggs
Matzek

Strasburg and Ackley have been by far the only two I'd rather have over Green. Obviously neither one are likely to fall to the Reds (although Strasburg's reported demands could still play a part IMHO), so it's a matter of hoping Green is available at No. 8. If not, I go with Crow or Gibson.

I am big on Green. Much is made of a disappointing junior season. While he may not have dominated like folks had hoped, and his power was down a bit, he still put up a good season:

.374 BA / 4 HR 32 RBI
19 2B & 5 3B in 211 At-bats
.435 / .569 / 1.004 OPS
0.52 BB/K ratio
I guess the red flag was 18 errors (.929 fielding)

His numbers from the Cape Cod League:

.348 BA / 6 HR & 21 RBI
12 2B & 1 3B
.451 / .537 / .988 OPS

His sophomore numbers were better than his junior season but I'm really not concerned. He did go 29 games without an error at one point in 2008, so I'm also not terribly worried about his subpar defense this season.

Green's definitely my guy.

lollipopcurve
05-27-2009, 04:19 PM
I'll say this about Matzek: if you're going to draft a HS arm in the top 10 picks, he's the one to get.

I tend to agree, mainly because he's a lefty.

Still find it hard to believe Green would drop. Could be the Boras factor. Unfortunately, I don't see the Reds going much over slot for anybody.

Kingspoint
05-27-2009, 06:43 PM
I'll say this about Matzek: if you're going to draft a HS arm in the top 10 picks, he's the one to get.

Yeah, I don't see him being there when we pick. He'd be my 3rd choice after Gibson and White, if all three were available.

Kingspoint
05-27-2009, 06:44 PM
I don't think Green would be in Walt's Top-10.

edabbs44
05-27-2009, 11:00 PM
I don't want to see Green's name called.

OnBaseMachine
05-28-2009, 02:06 AM
In Top 10 Form, Matzek Deals

Posted May. 27, 2009 11:23 am by Dave Perkin
Filed under: Draft Dope, First Person, High School

ORANGE, Calif.—After tossing three innings on Friday, Tyler Matzek took the hill for Capistrano Valley in its playoff game against Orange Lutheran. Hart Park, home of Division III powerhouse Chapman University, was the site of the nighttime contest.

Forty scouts were in attendance, including one veteran scout who has over 40 years of experience as a player, coach, amateur and pro scout. He was candid in his evaluation.

“Most of these scouts are wasting their time,” he said. “I can’t imagine Matzek lasting until a double digit pick. Anybody who came out here that picks beyond number 10 is wasting their money.”

Matzek threw six innings, struck out seven and walked three as Capo Valley advanced, 4-1. The scout observed, “Matzek’s arm action was free and easy, and he comfortably sat around 94. He showed good rotation on the breaking ball also.”

Matzek has some minor drawbacks, the scout noted. “He doesn’t have a great feel for the change.” Mechanically, the scout said, Matzek “gets a little bit upside down with his arm swing, bringing his arm down to his side after his hands break and pointing his thumb toward home. He gets a bit too much separation (as he drives plateward) and pulls his front side open and out.”

None of these problems are alarming and should be easily correctable, he added.

Earlier, our source viewed a playoff game featuring Brooks Pounders of Temecula Valley High (Temecula, Calif.) and Wes Hatton of Norco, Calif., High. Matt Hobgood had done his duty on Friday by pitching Norco into this game.

Of Pounders, he said, “He’s a big kid, and I got him around 92 from the windup. He loses a bit from the stretch, but he has a good feel for the breaking ball. I could see the third round for him”.

Our scout also saw multi-purpose prospect Hatton, a Cal State Fullerton recruit. “His arm works very well, even better than Pounders’ does. He sat around 89-91, but Hatton also loses a little from the stretch. He’s got a very good 82 mph curve. Hatton’s a smaller kid, but I like the fact that he is versatile, and could be a two way righthander/outfielder or infielder in college. If he is signable, I could envision rounds five-to-seven.”

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=911

JaxRed
05-28-2009, 01:29 PM
Austin Maddux the Jacksonville catcher was on the radio about a week ago giving the company line about being totally open to either going pro or going to Florida.

At the end of the interview he tells the host "the next 3 weeks are all about making money". The interview ends and the host says "the only way he'll see Florida is on TV. He's going pro."

edabbs44
05-28-2009, 04:21 PM
Our own OBM with a question in today's BA chat:


Brandon (Charleston, WV): Who do you think the Reds will take at #8? Any chance Kyle Gibson or Grant Green falls to the Reds?

John Manuel: We do see Gibson and Green both being available there, but are the Reds going to spend the money to sign Green? Just doesn't seem likely. Gibson makes more sense and we're hearing that both Gibson and Alex White, the two college arms we've consistently ranked ahead of the quintet of top prep arms, need to come down our list. Gibson has been steadier and we think he'll be there at 8.

OnBaseMachine
05-28-2009, 04:28 PM
IMO, the Reds will be in a great position if both Kyle Gibson and Grant Green are available. Who do you choose, a potential Troy Tulowitzki type of shortstop or a John Lackey type of pitcher? Gibson is the safer pick so I would probably go with him, but Green would be a great choice as well.

Thanks for posting that, edabbs.

edabbs44
05-28-2009, 06:19 PM
IMO, the Reds will be in a great position if both Kyle Gibson and Grant Green are available. Who do you choose, a potential Troy Tulowitzki type of shortstop or a John Lackey type of pitcher? Gibson is the safer pick so I would probably go with him, but Green would be a great choice as well.

Thanks for posting that, edabbs.

Even though I think this would be the year to go for hitting (and I am historically a pro-pitching type guy), I am not overly enthusiastic about what I am hearing about the hitters. Therefore, I want to see them getting the top college arm on the board. Gibson would be my choice if it was btw those two.

Hearing what we are hearing about Green worries me...I'm not a big fan of drafting guys who are dropping due to scouting and performance as we get closer to the draft.

edabbs44
05-28-2009, 11:27 PM
2003: Wagner, Pauly, Ronda, Lewis, Cornell
2004: Homer, BJ, Tatum, Gonzalez, Janish
2005: Bruce, Wood, Ward, Lecure, Avery
2006: Stubbs, Watson, Valaika, Reed, Ravin
2007: Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar, Cozart, Carroll, Soto, Stauffer, Bowman
2008: Alonso, Stewart, Cline, Shunick

6 years of top 5 round picks...one guy who has contributed positively to the big league team during that time span. Yes, I know it is still early for the 2008 and even 2007 draftees, but 1 guy in those 6 years is quite an embarrassment.

This year, they need to go and get guys who are top talents and close to the show. The core is in place in Cincy right now and drafting HS guys or projects will hurt since they might not be ready when the core of this franchise is still here.

Sure guys like Turner and Matzek would be nice to have in the system...but do we want to wait 5 years for them to get to Cincy? It's a shame that bats are lacking in this draft, but a silver lining is that you have guys like Crow and Scheppers who are one year more mature than other college guys. Does drafting Aaron Crow (who could be in Cincy inside of a year) give them the flexibility to deal a guy like Harang for some legit offensive help?

The other thing that this team needs to go is get a little ballsy and start drafting guys who fall due to contract demands or college committments. If a top talent is available later than he should be around, draft him and give him a nice chunk of change. Watching teams like NYY, Boston, LAA and Detroit do this year after year nauseates me. Spend a few extra million during the draft and it will do wonders for your farm system. Look at how Boston got Lars Anderson and Daniel Bard, how Detroit got Porcello, how Colorado got Folwer and how the Angels got guys like Weaver and Adenhart. Start going over slot...it works.

There's my rant.

OesterPoster
05-29-2009, 12:18 AM
The other thing that this team needs to go is get a little ballsy and start drafting guys who fall due to contract demands or college committments. If a top talent is available later than he should be around, draft him and give him a nice chunk of change. Watching teams like NYY, Boston, LAA and Detroit do this year after year nauseates me. Spend a few extra million during the draft and it will do wonders for your farm system. Look at how Boston got Lars Anderson and Daniel Bard, how Detroit got Porcello, how Colorado got Folwer and how the Angels got guys like Weaver and Adenhart. Start going over slot...it works.

There's my rant.


In all fairness to the Reds FO, they did start doing this last year...at least to some extent. Matt Fairel was not supposed to sign, but they chose him pretty late anyway and signed him over-slot.

Blitz Dorsey
05-29-2009, 12:40 AM
Why do so many people think Grant Green won't be there at No. 8? Baseball America ranks him as the No. 13 overall player available (#3 position player and #1 shortstop). He should be there if the Reds want him, unless someone reaches for him.

I hope the Reds take a pitcher. Tyler Matzek would be nice, but I would prefer Kyle Gibson or Aaron Crow. The problem is, Baseball America ranks Gibson as the No. 4 overall player in the draft and ranks Crow No. 7. They could both be gone by the time we pick. Interestingly, Matzek is ranked as the No. 8 player overall.

*BaseClogger*
05-29-2009, 12:49 AM
Are we gonna do one of them dandy mock drafts again this year?

OnBaseMachine
05-29-2009, 01:03 AM
Are we gonna do one of them dandy mock drafts again this year?

I'm planning on starting the signup thread tomorrow.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 08:40 AM
Why do so many people think Grant Green won't be there at No. 8? Baseball America ranks him as the No. 13 overall player available (#3 position player and #1 shortstop). He should be there if the Reds want him, unless someone reaches for him.

My sense is that there's new info re: Green's signability. Now, reports indicate Green is going to have above-slot demands, and this will cause him to drop. Any team that picks him early won't be reaching -- they'll be challenging MLB's dictum that signing bonuses be lower this year than last. Unfortunately, I don't see the Reds taking that on.

edabbs44
05-29-2009, 08:49 AM
In all fairness to the Reds FO, they did start doing this last year...at least to some extent. Matt Fairel was not supposed to sign, but they chose him pretty late anyway and signed him over-slot.

Fairel was the 83rd best prospect in Florida, according to BA. Sulbaran also fits the bill, but he was 48th in the state.

Meanwhile, the Royals took Tim Melville (ranked 15th overall) in the 4th round for a bonus of $1.25 million.

That's the kind of stuff they should be doing.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 09:26 AM
Fairel was the 83rd best prospect in Florida, according to BA. Sulbaran also fits the bill, but he was 48th in the state.

Meanwhile, the Royals took Tim Melville (ranked 15th overall) in the 4th round for a bonus of $1.25 million.

That's the kind of stuff they should be doing.

Melville was a hometown kid who KC knew they could sign.

Besides, Fairel and Sulbaran may end up being better prospects than Melville. Prospect rankings are not destiny.

Complaining about the Reds' approach last year rings hollow, so far as I'm concerned.

edabbs44
05-29-2009, 09:37 AM
Melville was a hometown kid who KC knew they could sign.

If that is true and the only reason, then they probably would have taken him with one of their earlier picks.


Besides, Fairel and Sulbaran may end up being better prospects than Melville. Prospect rankings are not destiny.

Very true, but all other things being equal I'd rather leave the draft with the 15th ranked player in the country than the 83rd ranked player in Florida.


Complaining about the Reds' approach last year rings hollow, so far as I'm concerned.

It's not a complaint of last year...it is an observation of the overall approach of the past ___ years. There is no reason why they couldn't pick up some of these top 50-100 talents who drop.

camisadelgolf
05-29-2009, 10:00 AM
2003: Wagner, Pauly, Ronda, Lewis, Cornell
2004: Homer, BJ, Tatum, Gonzalez, Janish
2005: Bruce, Wood, Ward, Lecure, Avery
2006: Stubbs, Watson, Valaika, Reed, Ravin
2007: Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar, Cozart, Carroll, Soto, Stauffer, Bowman
2008: Alonso, Stewart, Cline, Shunick

6 years of top 5 round picks...one guy who has contributed positively to the big league team during that time span. Yes, I know it is still early for the 2008 and even 2007 draftees, but 1 guy in those 6 years is quite an embarrassment.
I think it's too soon to be judging almost all of those picks.
2003: just horrible (thanks again, JimBo)
2004: Bailey still has plenty of potential; Szymanski is retired; Tatum has a future as a backup catcher; Gonzalez will probably toil in the minors before retiring; Janish is a serviceable utility infielder and may even become a starter some day
2005: Bruce is a future All-Star; Wood has a lot of potential; Ward was basically turned into Matt Maloney; LeCure is on the 40-man roster and has a chance to be a Major League starter; Avery has shown improvement and may become a LOOGY some day
2006: Stubbs may be the team's center fielder of the future; it may take some time, but Watson could become very effective as a reliever; Valaika could take Phillips' spot some day; Reed is toolsy and still young; Ravin has shown improvement, but I wouldn't expect much

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 10:11 AM
I think it's too soon to be judging almost all of those picks.
2003: just horrible (thanks again, JimBo)
2004: Bailey still has plenty of potential; Szymanski is retired; Tatum has a future as a backup catcher; Gonzalez will probably toil in the minors before retiring; Janish is a serviceable utility infielder and may even become a starter some day
2005: Bruce is a future All-Star; Wood has a lot of potential; Ward was basically turned into Matt Maloney; LeCure is on the 40-man roster and has a chance to be a Major League starter; Avery has shown improvement and may become a LOOGY some day
2006: Stubbs may be the team's center fielder of the future; it may take some time, but Watson could become very effective as a reliever; Valaika could take Phillips' spot some day; Reed is toolsy and still young; Ravin has shown improvement, but I wouldn't expect much

Nice post. I think some folks who haven't followed the minor leagues for all that long get a skewed perception of what you can expect out of a draft.

edabbs44
05-29-2009, 10:26 AM
I think it's too soon to be judging almost all of those picks.
2003: just horrible (thanks again, JimBo)
2004: Bailey still has plenty of potential; Szymanski is retired; Tatum has a future as a backup catcher; Gonzalez will probably toil in the minors before retiring; Janish is a serviceable utility infielder and may even become a starter some day
2005: Bruce is a future All-Star; Wood has a lot of potential; Ward was basically turned into Matt Maloney; LeCure is on the 40-man roster and has a chance to be a Major League starter; Avery has shown improvement and may become a LOOGY some day
2006: Stubbs may be the team's center fielder of the future; it may take some time, but Watson could become very effective as a reliever; Valaika could take Phillips' spot some day; Reed is toolsy and still young; Ravin has shown improvement, but I wouldn't expect much

Too soon for some? Absolutely. But I am looking at this on a macro level and not each guy one by one. One guy who has contributed to the big league club from the first 5 rds of the last 6 drafts is bad, no matter how you slice it.

Kc61
05-29-2009, 10:48 AM
Too soon for some? Absolutely. But I am looking at this on a macro level and not each guy one by one. One guy who has contributed to the big league club from the first 5 rds of the last 6 drafts is bad, no matter how you slice it.


I can't agree with this assessment. First off, there are two guys on the list, Bruce and Janish, who are contributing to the current Reds team right now. More importantly, most of the guys in the top 5 picks since 2004 are still with the organization. I don't see how it's a disappointment that recent draftees are still developing.

The Reds now have about 8 guys on their major league team that they drafted or were their international signings. I believe all of the following fall into that category -- Votto, Rosales, Janish, Dickerson, Bruce, Hanigan, Cueto, Fisher. In addition, players drafted by the Reds were important parts of the deals for Phillips and Hernandez, two starting players, and maybe others as well.

Also, there are serious prospects in the organization who were drafted after the fifth round. Roenicke at AAA is an example.

Starting with Dan0, Wayne, and now Walt, I can't complain about the draft.

HokieRed
05-29-2009, 11:06 AM
Agree entirely, KC. and I can't help pointing out that Dan O continues to be significantly under-credited with the turnaround in this organization--and I do think it can rightly be called a turnaround. Bruce, Cueto, Rosales, Janish, Fisher, Homer, Jeff Stevens who went for BP [by WK], Ward who went for Lohse who went for Maloney [by WK]. This with Tatum, Wood, Francisco, Valiquette and others still in the minors with real chances to become major league players. That is, IMHO, an extraordinary record of player acquisition for two years of general managing.

Scrap Irony
05-29-2009, 11:07 AM
Yeah, the draft looks bad "in a macro sense" because it's been stretched back to old GMs under old owners who did things the same old way.

New day under new leadership with, hopefully, new results.

Over the past few years, Cincinnati has shown a propensity for plucking obscure players late in rounds and having solid top-end drafts. Bruce looks to be the real deal, Frazier and Alonso haven't completely tanked, and Stewart, Lotzkar, Soto, and Stubbs all show great promise as not only league regulars, but above average league regulars. (Depending on position and attrition rate, obviously.)

This is shown in the depth of the minor league system and the numbers of talented young players now on the Cincinnati roster.

You can take the Reds to task for many things, but drafted poorly over the past half a decade isn't one of them.

M2
05-29-2009, 11:11 AM
I think some folks who haven't followed the minor leagues for all that long get a skewed perception of what you can expect out of a draft.

It's the top reason reason why I cringe at the notion of "building through the draft." You can get some good talent that way, but it takes so much more to build a team.

Look at last year's Rays. That club was as bad as a team can be for a solid decade and, by all accounts, it drafted fairly well. Yet 3/5 of its starting rotation, 5/8 of its starting players in the field and almost its entire bullpen came from other organizations.

traderumor
05-29-2009, 11:36 AM
It's the top reason reason why I cringe at the notion of "building through the draft." You can get some good talent that way, but it takes so much more to build a team.

Look at last year's Rays. That club was as bad as a team can be for a solid decade and, by all accounts, it drafted fairly well. Yet 3/5 of its starting rotation, 5/8 of its starting players in the field and almost its entire bullpen came from other organizations.A few of those draftees helped with the acquisitions. Delmon Young turning into Matt Garza is the first one to come to mind.

I think the team that doesn't fall in love with their prospects but holds them loosely, holding none "untouchable" stands the best chance of successfully "building through the draft," whereby prospects are not viewed exclusively as "future Reds" as they are a means to the end of building the major league club, either by working their way up through the system or as a trading chip to upgrade the current major league roster.

An organization that clutches their prospects as "their draftees" seem to be committing an error of arrogance, that they are better than everyone else at drafting and developing future good major leaguers.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 11:40 AM
An organization that clutches their prospects as "their draftees" seem to be committing an error of arrogance, that they are better than everyone else at drafting and developing future good major leaguers.

I agree to an extent, but you cannot ignore the cost savings these players present once they reach the majors. It is not simply pride that tempts a club give its own prospects a chance.

Kc61
05-29-2009, 11:47 AM
I agree to an extent, but you cannot ignore the cost savings these players present once they reach the majors. It is not simply pride that tempts a club give its own prospects a chance.

Actually, getting another team's draftee by trade is often cheaper. The drafting team pays the signing bonus. The team acquiring the player via trade a year or two later does not.

It is all a question of scouting and properly valuing talent. The Reds knew right away what they had with Cueto and Bruce. They kept them, promoted them early, they are successful.

The Reds stuck with Votto over a longer period. He had his detractors according to the press and the message boards, but good player evaluation won out and he made it after a full minor league term.

On the other hand, they may have stuck too long with Bailey. Hope not, but he's out of options after this year and he may have provided more value in a trade two years ago.

The next real interesting case, of course, is Alonso. There's no real position for him on the Reds. Hold him or trade him?

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 11:59 AM
Actually, getting another team's draftee by trade is often cheaper. The drafting team pays the signing bonus. The team acquiring the player via trade a year or two later does not.

Yes. But I was really referring to the cost savings at the major league level. Using young players from your system instead of proven vets from other organizations -- whether acquired through trade or free agency -- offers plenty more savings than skimming other team's prospects after their bonuses have been paid. I think we're seeing teams move in this direction, too -- especially teams that are not clear favorites for postseason play.

OesterPoster
05-29-2009, 12:00 PM
Something I've been wondering about Alonso...can he be included in a trade prior to August 15th as the PTBNL?

Joseph
05-29-2009, 12:21 PM
Something I've been wondering about Alonso...can he be included in a trade prior to August 15th as the PTBNL?

Yes. Only as a PTBNL though, not outright.

HokieRed
05-29-2009, 12:44 PM
To me, there's no question whatever about Alonso. Hold him as long as you can.

traderumor
05-29-2009, 12:47 PM
Yes. But I was really referring to the cost savings at the major league level. Using young players from your system instead of proven vets from other organizations -- whether acquired through trade or free agency -- offers plenty more savings than skimming other team's prospects after their bonuses have been paid. I think we're seeing teams move in this direction, too -- especially teams that are not clear favorites for postseason play.What I was referring to wasn't limited to acquiring "proven vets." For example, a beauty of a deal was the one I mentioned earlier in Young for Garza. That was a prospect for prospect deal, both major league ready and still cheap. Hamilton for Volquez was another prospect for prospect deal that was a beauty. In other words, the "not falling in love with your prospects" doesn't require only using them to acquire vets in their peak earning years. It would include deals like those mentioned above.

OesterPoster
05-29-2009, 12:51 PM
To me, there's no question whatever about Alonso. Hold him as long as you can.

I don't disagree, especially after reading about his work ethic and how he and Votto kept pushing each other this spring. I think Alonso has a great makeup, in addition to his immense talent.

I guess I'd be interested to hear from Brewers fans and whether or not they have accepted losing LaPorta for the half-season of Sabathia last year...and whether or not they think it was worth it.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2009, 12:53 PM
What I was referring to wasn't limited to acquiring "proven vets." For example, a beauty of a deal was the one I mentioned earlier in Young for Garza. That was a prospect for prospect deal, both major league ready and still cheap. Hamilton for Volquez was another prospect for prospect deal that was a beauty. In other words, the "not falling in love with your prospects" doesn't require only using them to acquire vets in their peak earning years. It would include deals like those mentioned above.

Agreed. I don't understand why we don't see more of these deals. It could be that teams do not recognize "depth" as a valid concept in re: pitching, making them generally unwilling to part with young pitchers. Even still, you'd think there would be more prospect for prospect deals involving position players like Alonso, who is clearly blocked by a young, outstanding major leaguer.

OnBaseMachine
05-29-2009, 01:44 PM
Five-tool players to be found in outfield
Teams looking for power bats with speed have options
By Jonathan Mayo / MLB.com

05/29/09 10:00 AM ET

Impact bats. Everyone wants them, but they don't exactly grow on trees.

Ideally, some of them come in the form of fleet-footed outfielders, the types with all five tools who can change the game on both sides of the ball. While this year's outfield crop isn't the deepest anyone's seen, there are definitely players with tools to be found. If a team is willing to draft a player, both high school and some in the college ranks, based on projection, there are some intriguing possibilities listed below.

Not on the list are some outfielders in the college ranks who will undoubtedly appeal to the stats-minded crowd, guys like Arizona State's Jason Kipnis or Loyola Marymount's Angelo Songco, who'll undoubtedly get drafted pretty highly because of their performances this season, but didn't quite make it on to the list below.

"It doesn't seem particularly deep, but there is an interesting mix of high-end tools guys, college performers as well as a few balanced guys who have also performed at a high level," one National League scout said. "If you want to go get one early you will get to choose the type of guy you want."

To find out when any of the outfielders in the Class of 2009 go, be sure to check MLB.com, which will offer live coverage and analysis of the entire First-Year Player Draft on June 9-11, on MLB.com/Live, where host Vinny Micucci will be joined by MLB.com Draft expert Jonathan Mayo and Major League Scouting Bureau director Frank Marcos. Coverage begins at 6 p.m. ET on June 9, noon on June 10 and 11:30 a.m. ET on June 11.

Kentrail Davis, University of Tennessee: Davis entered the year as a first-round hopeful, but struggled offensively as his Volunteers team had a down year as well. He strikes out too much, but when he's locked in, he's got good raw power, though he hasn't reached it much this season. He runs well now, but might slow down in the future, meaning a move to left. There, the bat better play more than it has. As a Draft-eligible sophomore and Scott Boras advisee, he has some leverage, and a return to Tennessee for his junior season isn't out of the question.

Reymond Fuentes, Callego HS, Puerto Rico: Fuentes has been sneaking up on Draft boards late thanks to some extremely impressive workouts. He's got plus speed. While he's got some pop, he seems to understand that his game is to go gap-to-gap, get on base and let his legs do the work. He's got a below-average arm, but his speed gives him more than enough range to stay in center field. More than one person has compared him to Johnny Damon as a future leadoff type.

Brett Jackson, California: The Cal center fielder has some definite tools, with good speed on both sides of the ball, a strong arm from the outfield and above-average bat speed. He doesn't, however, consistently let that bat speed work for him, as his swing doesn't really let him tap into his raw power and he strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter. The raw tools alone, though, could have Jackson off the board by the supplemental first round.

Jared Mitchell, LSU: Mitchell was a wide receiver for LSU's football team as well as an outfielder and it's his speed and athleticism that stand out. He uses his plus speed to steal bases and run down balls in the outfield and that's without really having honed skills in either department. He's got some bat speed, so there's hope for more future power, but whoever takes him will be betting on the projection more than on any here-and-now tools.

A.J. Pollock, Notre Dame: The Notre Dame center fielder might be one of the better pure bats in the college ranks this year. He's got a great approach at the plate and makes consistent contact with some pop, though he's more of a gap hitter. He's got pretty good speed which should help him on both sides of the ball, though as a converted infielder he's still learning the nuances of the outfield. Last summer's Cape Cod League MVP might be able to parlay his skills into a late first-round pick.

Donavan Tate, Cartersville HS, Ga.: To give you an idea of what kind of athlete Tate is, he's ranked in the top 100 high schoolers in both baseball and football. His dad, Lars, played in the NFL, and he's signed to go to University of North Carolina to play two sports. There's some split about what kind of hitter Tate might be, but he'd still be ranked by most as the top prep position player in the class. Perhaps filling a greater role in his draft status are the facts that he's advised by Scott Boras and that it's largely believed it's going to take a large above-slot bonus to sign him away from playing two sports in Chapel Hill.

Michael Trout, Millville HS, NJ: After Tate, Trout is probably the high school outfielder getting the most attention as the Draft approaches. He was on the radar already, but definitely soared up boards with plenty of helium even if rain in the Northeast didn't help. He just started switch-hitting and he's got the chance to hit for power and average, run well and play a good center field. It's that proverbial five-tool package that's so enticing and elusive, and a big reason why his name was being mentioned all over the first-round board.

LeVon Washington, Gainesville HS, Fla.: Looking for someone to compete with Tate in terms of pure athleticism, then Washington might be your guy. He's got plus speed and knows how to hit. He was a little hard to get a read on because rotator cuff surgery limited him to DHing or playing second base. He's played shortstop in the past as well, but he profiles best in the outfield where he can use his speed to his advantage. He won't be the first prep outfielder to go off the board, but that pure speed should ensure he's not waiting too long to hear his name called.

Tim Wheeler, Sacramento State: After a strong Cape Cod League showing, scouts were interested to see if Wheeler continued to progress as a junior back in California. He did more than that with a huge offensive year. He's always had a good approach at the plate and most saw him as a guy who'd hit for average, but he showed more power than he had in the past and there might be more there than initially thought. He runs well, both offensively and defensively, and maximizes it with excellent instincts. Whether he can stay in center field remains to be seen, but his bat may have played him into the first round.

Everett Williams, McCallum HS, Texas: Another high schooler with some tools, Williams might have more "now" bat than the others on this list. His strikeout rate has been a bit high in the past, but the bat speed and power potential are legitimate and overall he's got a pretty good idea at the plate. He runs well, both on the bases and in the outfield and he should be able to stay in center, despite not having the strongest arm in the world. Tate and Trout might rate higher in the five-tool world, but Williams, too, could very well be taken off the board in the top 32 picks.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090528&content_id=5019494&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

M2
05-29-2009, 02:06 PM
A few of those draftees helped with the acquisitions. Delmon Young turning into Matt Garza is the first one to come to mind.

I think the team that doesn't fall in love with their prospects but holds them loosely, holding none "untouchable" stands the best chance of successfully "building through the draft," whereby prospects are not viewed exclusively as "future Reds" as they are a means to the end of building the major league club, either by working their way up through the system or as a trading chip to upgrade the current major league roster.

An organization that clutches their prospects as "their draftees" seem to be committing an error of arrogance, that they are better than everyone else at drafting and developing future good major leaguers.

I miss the rep button at times like this.


I agree to an extent, but you cannot ignore the cost savings these players present once they reach the majors. It is not simply pride that tempts a club give its own prospects a chance.

True enough.

I'll just add that's also a good reason not to rush young players too much, particularly young arms. You want to get production to go with those savings.