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NarrowStairs
02-13-2009, 09:25 PM
This guy has to start. I don't care if it's at SS, 3B, LF, or Pitcher. He has to be on the field.

He has the best baseball "instincts" I've ever seen. The guy is also a pure hitter. He was on pace to hit .330 last year before that unfortunate injury.

No, he doesn't have the best range. BUT, he doesn't make errors.

He also does not strike out.

This guy is so underrated. It hurts me to think about how everyone here wants AGon to start at SS.

Good Luck, Jeff.

berryluther
02-13-2009, 09:49 PM
This guy has to start. I don't care if it's at SS, 3B, LF, or Pitcher. He has to be on the field.

He has the best baseball "instincts" I've ever seen. The guy is also a pure hitter. He was on pace to hit .330 last year before that unfortunate injury.

No, he doesn't have the best range. BUT, he doesn't make errors.

He also does not strike out.

This guy is so underrated. It hurts me to think about how everyone here wants AGon to start at SS.

Good Luck, Jeff.

If your hurting now wait till May 1st when we are 12 games back :scared:

NarrowStairs
02-13-2009, 10:02 PM
If your hurting now wait till May 1st when we are 12 games back :scared:

I see us starting strong, but fading, ala 2006.

redsfanfalcon
02-13-2009, 11:39 PM
This guy has to start. I don't care if it's at SS, 3B, LF, or Pitcher. He has to be on the field.

He has the best baseball "instincts" I've ever seen. The guy is also a pure hitter. He was on pace to hit .330 last year before that unfortunate injury.

No, he doesn't have the best range. BUT, he doesn't make errors.

He also does not strike out.

This guy is so underrated. It hurts me to think about how everyone here wants AGon to start at SS.

Good Luck, Jeff.

I hope he does well also but to say he has the best baseball instincts you've ever seen might be a stretch. They are decent but I wouldn't say the best, but of course I don't know how much baseball you've seen. I would say a guy like Griffey Jr. when he first came up had them. He still can get a good jump on the ball, doesn't make the dumb baserunning error, throws to the correct base, etc.

thatcoolguy_22
02-14-2009, 12:07 AM
(Thanks jnwohio for the correction) "Sparky Anderson" has a quote (I can't find it right now) that says something along the lines that if you give a bench player enough playing time he will eventually show you why he is a bench player.

I think Keppinger is a solid role player for the Reds and can provide quality at bats from multiple positions. Lets take a closer look at his numbers though


2006 (he had 60 PA with the Royals) here are his AAA numbers
Mets/Royals
PA 366/144
OPS .712/.872
ISO .059/.110
BABIP .317/.371

2007 (Reds)
PA 276
OPS .877
ISO .145
BABIP .335


2008 (Reds)
PA 502
OPS .657
ISO .081
BABIP .275


In AAA with the Mets over 366 PA he maintains an incredibly low ISO of .059 and a BABIP of .317. These low numbers equalled out to a .712 OPS at the age of 26. Over a smaller sample size with the Royals his ISO spikes to .110 with his BABIP jumping to an unreal .371. In 2007 over 276 PA he OPS's .877 with an ISO of .145 with a slightly higher than normal BABIP of .335. In comes 2008 and the opportunity to play a full season. Kepp logs over 500 PA and as the season progresses he proves his bench worthiness. Posting another low ISO of .081 with a very typical and sustainable BABIP of .275.


Who is the real Keppinger? The guy with low ISO and OPS's or the one with Huge BABIP #'s and gaudy OPS's?

I know people like to point at his injury from last year as a the reason he fell off but, I don't completely buy into this logic.

Once again, If you give a bench player enough PT he will eventually show you why he is a bench player.

JBChance
02-14-2009, 12:44 AM
This guy has to start. I don't care if it's at SS, 3B, LF, or Pitcher. He has to be on the field.

He has the best baseball "instincts" I've ever seen. The guy is also a pure hitter. He was on pace to hit .330 last year before that unfortunate injury.

No, he doesn't have the best range. BUT, he doesn't make errors.

He also does not strike out.

This guy is so underrated. It hurts me to think about how everyone here wants AGon to start at SS.

Good Luck, Jeff.

I see Keppinger as a "super sub" type. He was a good hitter in '07, but it remains to be seen how he comes back this season. Defensively, when he gets a ball, he gets the putout, but his range is very limited. He's serviceable as a sub for 2B,SS,3B, but not a starter. Maybe if second was open.

AGon, in his day, was considered one of the finer defensive SS, but he's never been an offensive force. I'm not convinced that he'll have his range back. I don't believe he'll swat it like '07 either.

IMO, neither of them is going to be a great solution this season. They are just placeholders for Valaika (or a trade/ free agent), really.

jnwohio
02-14-2009, 12:50 AM
Pete Rose has a quote (I can't find it right now) that says something along the lines that if you give a bench player enough playing time he will eventually show you why he is a bench player.



Pete Rose may have made a similar statement or expressed this opinion at some point; but I believe in regards to the Reds, it is usually attributed to Sparky Anderson who was explaining why he typically sat members of the "regular 8" one game at a time even if their sub had a big game. As I recall, Sparky's next sentence was that it was his job to make sure they did not get the chance to remind folks why they were bench players.

I think the jury is still out on Keppinger. By and large, the player I saw last year before the injury was the basically same player I saw the year before, not the one I saw the rest of the season after he returned. Maybe he wasn't fully recovered. Maybe he doesn't have the body to grind out a full season as a starter.

I think he played too long of a stretch at too high of a level in 2007 to fall under Sparky's dictum. However the just remains out until he puts together an entire season at that level and then backs it up the next year.

thatcoolguy_22
02-14-2009, 12:54 AM
I think he played too long of a stretch at too high of a level in 2007 to fall under Sparky's dictum. However the just remains out until he puts together an entire season at that level and then backs it up the next year.


That raises the question of how many PA gives enough information to formally evaluate a players skill level. In 2007 Keppinger had only 276 plate appearances.

Jerome
02-14-2009, 01:25 AM
Keppinger, if healthy, will hit over .300. Put it in the books and rub it in my face in October if I'm wrong.

http://jeromesredscare.blogspot.com/2009/01/scouting-report-jeff-keppinger.html

JBChance
02-14-2009, 01:45 AM
Keppinger, if healthy, will hit over .300. Put it in the books and rub it in my face in October if I'm wrong.

The guy has done that exactly once in the majors. And that was over only 6o odd games.

I'll be definitely pulling for him. Maybe "the light came on" in '07 and last season was the knee alone.

I know this. My Dad loves that guy. He loves scrappiness.

fitz1
02-14-2009, 07:44 AM
I agree with you Jerome. Kepp's the man. He faltered after returning too early from the DL last year and struggled. Other than that, he is a proven hitter. I don't care where he plays, but given enough ABs he will be a +.300 hitter. I don't think he will win a starting position unless AGonz goes down and then even Haiston or Valeika might be given the job. But I do see him being a possible backup to Votto at first, Phillips at second, challenging EE at 3B if he falters and maybe even playing some outfield. I love Kepp's game and can play for my team any day of the week.

thatcoolguy_22
02-14-2009, 08:44 AM
I agree with you Jerome. Kepp's the man. He faltered after returning too early from the DL last year and struggled. Other than that, he is a proven hitter. I don't care where he plays, but given enough ABs he will be a +.300 hitter. I don't think he will win a starting position unless AGonz goes down and then even Haiston or Valeika might be given the job. But I do see him being a possible backup to Votto at first, Phillips at second, challenging EE at 3B if he falters and maybe even playing some outfield. I love Kepp's game and can play for my team any day of the week.

I like Keppinger as a super sub but, thats it. I don't think he can sustain a .300 BA without the assistance of a .350 BABIP or better. I will be rooting for the guy, don't get me wrong but, I will be surprised if he can OPS .800. If Ward makes the team (I predict he will) he will receive the majority of the days that Votto needs a breather. However Kepp can fill in all IF positions (minus catcher) and is an asset to the squad. Every team needs role players.

UPRedsFan
02-14-2009, 10:57 AM
Kepp is our best right handed bat in left field. He will OPS well over .800 against left handed pitching. Platoon him with Dickerson and let him spot start for Votto or Bruce when they need rest.

I like Gonzo at ss though for the defense assuming he's healthy.

Nasty_Boy
02-14-2009, 11:53 AM
Kepp is anything but proven. The man is a black hole in the lineup against RHP, and while he hits lefties well I'm not sure that he would hit well enough or play LF well enough to warrant platooning him. I really fine with Kepp in small doses but the man is nothing more than a backup. Reds fans love the scrappy white dude that comes out of the minors (Stynes, Freel) like a house on fire, gets his uni dirty, and hits .310 for 35 games. Kepp is nothing more than a backup and a platoon guy at best on a pennant contending team.

JBChance
02-14-2009, 12:04 PM
Kepp is our best right handed bat in left field.

I don't think he'll be a part of that logjam out there.

JoshFogg
02-14-2009, 01:25 PM
jeff keppinger would not start on the pIrates, and you want him to be a key piece to the Reds- wow. brilliant.

RED VAN HOT
02-14-2009, 05:19 PM
IMO, Kepp is a good baseball player who does not have a natural position. He can hit for average but with below average speed and power he can neither play in the middle nor on the corners. He is skilled enough to fill in at a variety of positions not only giving other players an occasional day off, but also keeping him sharp for pinch hitting.

I think this is a valuable role. It precludes having to carry a weak hitting backup infielder on the roster.

Orodle
02-14-2009, 05:27 PM
This guy has to start. I don't care if it's at SS, 3B, LF, or Pitcher. He has to be on the field.

He has the best baseball "instincts" I've ever seen. The guy is also a pure hitter. He was on pace to hit .330 last year before that unfortunate injury.

No, he doesn't have the best range. BUT, he doesn't make errors.

He also does not strike out.

This guy is so underrated. It hurts me to think about how everyone here wants AGon to start at SS.

Good Luck, Jeff.


I agree for the most part. He needs to be in the lineup somewhere. People knock on his range all the time but he makes up for it with the ability to make the routine plays which surprisingly many range guys have problems with. His most natural position would be 2B but its pretty obvious Brandon has that position here.

But best instincts ever? haha thats a bit much.

JoshFogg, again displays his baseball knowledge.

redsfandan
02-14-2009, 06:39 PM
I like Kepp and I respect the love some have for him but I don't think he'll be a starter, or that he'll accumulate 350+ abs, unless there's an injury to someone (like Alex Gonzalez last year) or EE fails to improve defensively.

NarrowStairs
02-14-2009, 07:23 PM
The guy is a PURE hitter. He will hit .330 + if he's given the chance.

His baseball IQ is off the charts, too. I'm talking about throwing behind runners, etc.

NarrowStairs
02-14-2009, 07:23 PM
I want Alex Gonzalez to re-fracture his leg.

JoshFogg
02-14-2009, 07:25 PM
jeff keppinger, if given 500 at bats, will hit .255 - i cant wait

ChatterRed
02-14-2009, 08:13 PM
This guy has to start. I don't care if it's at SS, 3B, LF, or Pitcher. He has to be on the field.

He has the best baseball "instincts" I've ever seen. The guy is also a pure hitter. He was on pace to hit .330 last year before that unfortunate injury.

No, he doesn't have the best range. BUT, he doesn't make errors.

He also does not strike out.

This guy is so underrated. It hurts me to think about how everyone here wants AGon to start at SS.

Good Luck, Jeff.

He has good baseball instincts, but not the best I've ever seen. Having said that, I agree with you and think the jury is still out on Keppinger, unlike so many on this board.

I don't know how people can write a guy off who came up and played well his first season due to an injury to another, but not a full season.........and then in his second year broke his kneecap and was obviously never completely 100% after it, but was hitting well before that. No way is there any way to tell about Keppinger at this point because he has neither played a full season or been healthy for a full season.

If AGon doesn't play this year and Kepp stays healthy and plays 150 games and hits .300, will people then shut up?

I doubt it.

NarrowStairs
02-14-2009, 08:48 PM
In '07 he was hitting something like .370 in AAA. They brought him up for the 2nd half of the season and he hit .332 in the MLB in 70 games.

The first part of '08 he was hitting near .330 with an OBP of .400 until that freak injury.

Give the guy everyday at bats and he will hit .330

He wasn't getting that with the Mets or Royals.

mlh1981
02-16-2009, 12:54 AM
Don't overexpose him like the Reds did to Freel. Some guys are just meant to be super subs.

akron3344
02-16-2009, 02:26 AM
.250 hitter at best,

CesarGeronimo
02-16-2009, 02:31 AM
One of the things I thought I noticed about Keppinger last year was that like most of the rest of the team, he started swinging at too many bad pitches and not working the count as much to get a good pitch as he had in the past. I hope that I'm wrong about that or that it doesn't continue in '09. That was one of the things that made it hard for me to watch last year's team (although I kept watching) was seeing so many guys go up and hack at whatever the pitcher threw them.

ChatterRed
02-16-2009, 09:20 AM
jeff keppinger, if given 500 at bats, will hit .255 - i cant wait


Don't overexpose him like the Reds did to Freel. Some guys are just meant to be super subs.


.250 hitter at best,


And you know this how? He has only been in the big leagues for the Reds for 2 partial seasons due to an injury to someone else, and an injury to himself. When healthy, he has performed beyond expectations.

There is no way for ANYONE at this point to know whether or not Keppinger is an everyday type player or a sub.

The negativity toward the guy is uncalled for.

NarrowStairs
02-16-2009, 02:09 PM
Don't overexpose him like the Reds did to Freel. Some guys are just meant to be super subs.

What the heck do you mean don't overexpose him?

He's only had a couple of injuries, and the one last year was a freak injury. It's not like he's injury prone or even less durable than everyday players. He's played multiple full seasons --- just because he was in the minors doesn't mean he wasn't playing with any less effort or wasn't susceptible to wear and tear.

NarrowStairs
02-16-2009, 02:10 PM
.250 hitter at best,

Racist.

JoshFogg
02-16-2009, 02:23 PM
Trust me, teams that are FAR FAR better at drafting, bringing up, scouting and playing talented players, do not let keppinger go....only to have the reds (One of the worst teams in baseball) magically see something that everyone else missed out on.

ChatterRed
02-16-2009, 02:58 PM
Trust me, teams that are FAR FAR better at drafting, bringing up, scouting and playing talented players, do not let keppinger go....only to have the reds (One of the worst teams in baseball) magically see something that everyone else missed out on.

Yeah, that's why Cleveland let Brandon Phillips get away. :rolleyes:

In other words, it happens.

PedroBourbon
02-16-2009, 03:03 PM
Kepp is anything but proven. The man is a black hole in the lineup against RHP, and while he hits lefties well I'm not sure that he would hit well enough or play LF well enough to warrant platooning him. I really fine with Kepp in small doses but the man is nothing more than a backup. Reds fans love the scrappy white dude that comes out of the minors (Stynes, Freel) like a house on fire, gets his uni dirty, and hits .310 for 35 games. Kepp is nothing more than a backup and a platoon guy at best on a pennant contending team.

I think you nailed it with the comparisons to Chris Stynes and Ryan Freel. I'm a fan of all three of those guys (including Kepp here) and would like to see him play a lot of innings. If the guy has a year like "07 he should see a lot of innings. With days off for starters, injuries, pinch hitting, etc, there is a chance for a lot of playing time for Kepp even if he doesn't start. Just hope Dusty recognizes it if he's having a good start to the season.;)

JoshFogg
02-16-2009, 03:37 PM
If kepp is hot, play him. If he is not, sit him. It really is that simple. Dusty does not seem to grasp that, unfortunately. IM not talking game to game, 3-4 game slump is enough to justify sitting a player as unproven as kepp,

swaisuc
02-18-2009, 11:59 AM
Keppinger, if healthy, will hit over .300. Put it in the books and rub it in my face in October if I'm wrong.

http://jeromesredscare.blogspot.com/2009/01/scouting-report-jeff-keppinger.html

Maybe so, but I think his upside is to hit .300 again with almost no power, limited walks, and below average defense. I'm not saying he won't do that, but I'm not ready to call him a must-start with that by any means.

His downside, well, see 2008.

BLEEDS
02-18-2009, 05:11 PM
Kepp is anything but proven. The man is a black hole in the lineup against RHP, and while he hits lefties well I'm not sure that he would hit well enough or play LF well enough to warrant platooning him.

So is Brandon Phillips, but that doesn't stop DUHsty from inking him in at cleanup!!!

IMO we could do worse than having Keppinger be our #2 hitter - he's IDEAL for that slot, he doesn't K, and he hits for a decent average. He's also not a Double Play machine like BP is.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
02-18-2009, 05:14 PM
FWIW I hope he beats out Alex Gonzalez but have my doubts just based on salary as to who will see the most playing time. Keppinger has proven himself and he always hits, he's done it at every level. I think this is one of those cases where the cream will rise to the top. Keppinger will hit his way into a spot.

BLEEDS
02-18-2009, 05:30 PM
Kepp is our best right handed bat in left field. He will OPS well over .800 against left handed pitching. Platoon him with Dickerson and let him spot start for Votto or Bruce when they need rest.


I'd agree he's at least worth a look. He absolutely crushes LHP, so he'd actually be a good candidate for Dickerson's complement.

I bet he could easily OPS .800 in LHP platoons and PT starts.

Some guys DO just "turn it on" especially at 26/27/28, you know the "prime physical years" for an athlete? This could be he case for Kepp.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
02-18-2009, 05:47 PM
I would never hit BP higher than 6th against RHP. And I disagree about Kepp being a DP machine. He makes a lot of contact and hits a lot line drive/ground balls. He's also became a less patient hitter the more he's in the lineup. Hit him 2nd against LHP and I won't complain, higher than 6th against RHP and I don't like it.

smoke6
02-24-2009, 11:32 AM
It looks like Kepp is our starting guy at SS to start the year. I'm not feeling good about AGon. He's done.

Orodle
02-24-2009, 12:08 PM
Year before last Keppinger was on fire. He was also doing very good before he went down to injury last season. I would love to see him given the chance to play regularly over 162 games again.

I think too many are relying on Gonzales to come back and be a great defensive SS......he practically hasnt played a MLB game for 1.5 years.

tbball10
02-24-2009, 04:21 PM
i would start gozo if he's healthy. but if he's not i would start kepp atleast against lefties. and i would have gomes or hairston in LF vs. lefties..

JBChance
02-25-2009, 06:09 PM
i would start gozo if he's healthy. but if he's not i would start kepp atleast against lefties. and i would have gomes or hairston in LF vs. lefties..


I was hoping for AGon too, but it looks to be the same old, same old stuff with him.

It'll be Kepp and JHJ if that's the case w/ Gomes/Dickerson/Jones in LF.

flash
02-27-2009, 09:48 AM
I said it before Keppinger needs to be platooned with Bruce against left handed pitching. Or put Dickerson in right and Kepp in left against left handers. You can always bring Bruce in later against a right handed reliever. Somebody said bruce got better late in the year against lefthanders, but i checked. He never did. He never batted over .200 in any month against left-handers and never had a month above .250 OBP against left handers. Maybe Bruce will improve, but why wait to find out when Kepp absolutely burns lefties.

swaisuc
02-27-2009, 12:39 PM
Why wait on Bruce? I think you know the answer to that. He has a chance to be a star at the major league level and if you start him platooning now, he'll never get any better against lefties. No chance they do that and IMO no chance they should.

express
03-01-2009, 11:20 PM
Why does Kepp only have 5 AB's through 5 games?

Dusty getting Hairston ready?

Hairston is not a MLB SS.

Eric_the_Red
03-02-2009, 09:42 AM
Hairston is not a MLB SS.

And Kepp is? :confused:

flash
03-02-2009, 10:05 AM
a serious question

Who is Votto's backup at first? Keppinger has only played a total of 16 games their his entire career. Rosales has limited experience. The only guy with what would seem to be considerable experience is Hannigan. Who will be playing there when Votto leaves for the WBC?

Nasty_Boy
03-02-2009, 12:03 PM
Alonso this spring... Once the season starts it could be Kepp, or maybe Ward makes the team. Maybe Edwin plays there a little. Hopefully we just pencil Joey in for 162 games.

Chris Sabowned
03-02-2009, 04:09 PM
a serious question

Who is Votto's backup at first? Keppinger has only played a total of 16 games their his entire career. Rosales has limited experience. The only guy with what would seem to be considerable experience is Hannigan. Who will be playing there when Votto leaves for the WBC?


It looks like they're getting Gomes ready for that position. He started at 1B today.

ian_madden
03-02-2009, 04:26 PM
I like Kepp as a super backup. He should fill the role that Ryan Freel should have had. Play 3 or 4 days a week, giving everyone a day off. Anymore than that, and I think that we will see his production drop off.

I don't like him in a platoon in left field I hope Gomes turns it on and wins that race, outright. I like Gomes scrappy, fired up attitude. He was knee deep in some good bench clearing brawls last year. Maybe that is what we need, some to light a fire under our young guys and get some controversy going.

RED VAN HOT
03-02-2009, 04:49 PM
Why does Kepp only have 5 AB's through 5 games?

Dusty getting Hairston ready?

Hairston is not a MLB SS.

I'd like to see Janish get more playing time. I know I am in the minority, but I think he can hit .250. SS defense is the greatest need on this team. If they leave him at AAA, he will have Valaika to battle for playing time. Janish is unlikely to hit well enough to play any position other than SS. He is 26. The Reds should give him a good look this spring and make a decision. I think they already know what to expect from Kepp and Hairston at the position.

Eric_the_Red
03-02-2009, 05:47 PM
Do you think Janish could develop (or perhaps already is) a solid glove, adequate bat, off the bench SS in the mold of a Juan Castro?

RED VAN HOT
03-03-2009, 04:34 PM
Do you think Janish could develop (or perhaps already is) a solid glove, adequate bat, off the bench SS in the mold of a Juan Castro?

Your question is interesting. It is difficult to predict whether a player can take that last step to the ML level. In his stint with the Reds last year he was over matched. Many of his hits were opposite field. In the minors, however, he has shown an ability to adjust to new levels. I think he deserves a longer look. Defensively, I believe he is a better option than Keppinger or Hairston.

I believe Janish has a higher offensive ceiling than Castro. I think Janish could develop better on base and slugging percentages. If he does, then he should be considered as a starter. For middle infielders defense should come first. A big inning can hinge on whether a ground ball just eludes the infielder or is turned into a DP.

Regarding a bench role, IMO bench players should be able to contribute offensively. For all his defensive skills, a Juan Castro on the bench is a waste of a roster slot in that he does not provide a good pinch hitting option. If Janish had a .228 avg and sub .300 OBP, the same would be true for him.

Of course, if Gonzalez is healthy and can play at 2007 levels, all bets are off.

Jerome
03-03-2009, 08:25 PM
Do you think Janish could develop (or perhaps already is) a solid glove, adequate bat, off the bench SS in the mold of a Juan Castro?

There are a million Janishs out there. He is only unique in that his last name could be used as a adjective--"Keppinger ate a bowl of refried beans and felt rather janish afterwards."


http://jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

Jerome
03-03-2009, 08:26 PM
Keppinger, if healthy, will hit over .300. Put it in the books and rub it in my face in October if I'm wrong.

http://jeromesredscare.blogspot.com/2009/01/scouting-report-jeff-keppinger.html

I agree with you. Post after post you are on the money sir.

JBChance
03-04-2009, 02:15 AM
Do you think Janish could develop (or perhaps already is) a solid glove, adequate bat, off the bench SS in the mold of a Juan Castro?

Adequate Bat? In the mold of a Juan Castro?

:eek:

Eric_the_Red
03-04-2009, 09:52 AM
Adequate in the sense that he may hit his weight. For an off the bench player with a solid glove, I think that is expected.

JBChance
03-05-2009, 12:23 AM
I agree that Janish might have that potential, but I don't think of Castro as an "adequate" bat.

For Janish to be a useful player, he needs to aspire to more than Castro, IMO.