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View Full Version : Reds pitching decisions '09- What if.....?



TStuck
02-16-2009, 09:46 AM
Here's a hypothetical question for debate and discussion.

It's generally recognized that 4 spots in the pitching rotation are set heading into the '09 season (Harang, Arroyo, Volquez & Cueto). This leaves a handful of legitimate candidates auditioning this Spring for the 5th spot in the rotation.

What would you do (from GM and/or Manager perspective) if 2 or those candidates - for sake of argument say Bailey & Owings - have really strong showings this Spring? Would you....
Make 1 starter & 1 long guy?
send 1 back to AAA?
dangle some SP as trade bait?
Other options?

What would you do and why???

thatcoolguy_22
02-16-2009, 10:14 AM
Here's a hypothetical question for debate and discussion.

It's generally recognized that 4 spots in the pitching rotation are set heading into the '09 season (Harang, Arroyo, Volquez & Cueto). This leaves a handful of legitimate candidates auditioning this Spring for the 5th spot in the rotation.

What would you do (from GM and/or Manager perspective) if 2 or those candidates - for sake of argument say Bailey & Owings - have really strong showings this Spring? Would you....
Make 1 starter & 1 long guy?
send 1 back to AAA?
dangle some SP as trade bait?
Other options?

What would you do and why???

Hypothetically
If both Owings and Bailey are considered equals I hand the 5th spot over to Homer and leave Owings as the long man in the pen. It will only be detrimental to Bailey's progression for him to spend a year in the pen.

In reality
I see Bailey anchoring the Louisville rotation this year with a few spot starts and a late call up. Owings will more than likely take the 5th spot and be an occasional PH. Depth is a good thing to have.

Has anyone worked out the numbers to see how much Owings hitting would lower his ERA if instead of runs created they were runs prevented? It definitely raises his value. I haven't done any of the math but in theory if he could OPS .800, could that be the equivalent of dropping a 4.9 ERA into the 4.3 area?

mroby85
02-16-2009, 10:21 AM
Hypothetically
If both Owings and Bailey are considered equals I hand the 5th spot over to Homer and leave Owings as the long man in the pen. It will only be detrimental to Bailey's progression for him to spend a year in the pen.

In reality
I see Bailey anchoring the Louisville rotation this year with a few spot starts and a late call up. Owings will more than likely take the 5th spot and be an occasional PH. Depth is a good thing to have.

Has anyone worked out the numbers to see how much Owings hitting would lower his ERA if instead of runs created they were runs prevented? It definitely raises his value. I haven't done any of the math but in theory if he could OPS .800, could that be the equivalent of dropping a 4.9 ERA into the 4.3 area?

X2 up until the OPS stuff.

redsfandan
02-16-2009, 10:53 AM
What would you do (from GM and/or Manager perspective) if 2 or those candidates - for sake of argument say Bailey & Owings - have really strong showings this Spring? Would you....
Make 1 starter & 1 long guy?
send 1 back to AAA?
dangle some SP as trade bait?
Other options?

What would you do and why???

I was wondering the same thing yesterday. It would depend on how the bullpen pitchers do in the spring but my preference would be to only keep one up here and keep the others in the minors so they can have regular starts. Then if they are still doing well by mid june I'd see what Arroyo could net in a trade.

xavr1
02-16-2009, 11:37 AM
If that happens (and here's hoping it does!) I say make Owings the 5th starter for the beginning of the season and put Homer in long relief. Owings has a much better bat and Bailey can use some time in the 'pen to gain confidence. If he is lights out over the course of April-May, think about moving him to Owings' spot, especially if Owings is less than spectacular.

RedsFanWC
02-16-2009, 11:58 AM
Here's a hypothetical question for debate and discussion.

It's generally recognized that 4 spots in the pitching rotation are set heading into the '09 season (Harang, Arroyo, Volquez & Cueto). This leaves a handful of legitimate candidates auditioning this Spring for the 5th spot in the rotation.

What would you do (from GM and/or Manager perspective) if 2 or those candidates - for sake of argument say Bailey & Owings - have really strong showings this Spring? Would you....
Make 1 starter & 1 long guy?
send 1 back to AAA?
dangle some SP as trade bait?
Other options?

What would you do and why???

First - I wouldnt trade anybody, pitching depth is valuable. It is very rare to see a team go through the whole season using only 5 or 6 starters. Having 7 or 8 guys you can send out and feel confident you can win is a luxury that the Reds havent had in a long time.

Second - Having a solid long guy may be key for this team, especially if you are going with 3 young starters (Volquez, Cueto and Bailey). If Owings and Bailey have equally solid springs I would make Owings the long guy out of the pen and give Bailey the 5th spot. While Owings hasnt been around a long time, I would feel better having him come in when any of the young starters struggle instead of Bailey. Plus his bat may spark some comebacks, you never know.

One of the things to factor is that Nick Masset is out of options. If he has a good spring the Reds will have to put him on the 25 man roster or lose him. If thats the case and Owings and Bailey are essentially tied, look for Owings to get the nod in the rotation, Masset in the pen and Bailey at AAA. Bailey can still work on things in the minors, while Owings doesnt have much to prove at AAA, having already shown he can be successful in the majors.

Casey
02-16-2009, 12:19 PM
In reality
I see Bailey anchoring the Louisville rotation this year with a few spot starts and a late call up. Owings will more than likely take the 5th spot and be an occasional PH. Depth is a good thing to have.


Totally agree with this. I think it's Owings' job to lose...Bailey could use more time at AAA.

JoshFogg
02-16-2009, 01:29 PM
Owings cant be worse than Belisle/ Fogg. I remember when you bought 08 tix...and as the game was approaching.....you would see fogg./belise slated to go for your game...it was like getting punched in the stomach. total waste of money

ChatterRed
02-16-2009, 02:03 PM
Bailey goes to triple AAA no matter what. He's still too immature to handle the major leagues. Another year in triple AAA can only do him good. And if he dominates for a couple of months, there are always injuries to the Reds starting pitching staff to consider, so he'll probably get his chance anyway.

Owings has had success in the majors. He is the obvious choice.

flash
02-16-2009, 02:19 PM
If that occurs I would make attempt a trade for Sanchez with the Giants. The Giants could use a right handed starter and the Reds a left-hander. It would probably cost the Reds Keppinger as well since the Giants need a 3b man.

akron3344
02-16-2009, 02:21 PM
its alwaysa about bailey and owings with you guys never ramirez the guy who actually can pitch

redsfandan
02-16-2009, 02:34 PM
That's cuz Bailey still has the highest ceiling and Owings has had the most success in the majors so far.
I'd probably rank them:

1) Owings
2) Ramirez


3) Bailey
4) Thompson





5) Maloney

UPRedsFan
02-16-2009, 02:48 PM
I wouldn't trade anyone. You need more than 5 sp to get thru a season.

If Bailey earns it, then he gets the 5th spot and Owings goes to long man. If that's the case, I might consider carrying a 13 man staff early in the year. Gives you an extra pitcher in April/May and doesn't necessarily hurt your bench since Owings can pinch hit.

However, if Bailey proves himself and we're not vying for the playoffs, I would definitely consider trading Arroyo in August.

Have to say, I'm intrigued about the Hernandez comment I read over the weekend about Homer's control so far. What if??? Can you just imagine, Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Homer equaling what Cueto did last year?

JoshFogg
02-16-2009, 03:00 PM
at this point, the rotation should be very very solid. I want Bailey to be the 5, but owings is the best option and bailey stinks.

Cant Touch This
02-16-2009, 03:08 PM
Bailey goes to triple AAA no matter what.

Is that like AAAAAAAAA?

:D

Chris Sabowned
02-16-2009, 03:47 PM
If they both have good springs, I would start Homer out in the bullpen. I think they should try him in the bullpen some during spring training anyway.

Ghosts of 1990
02-16-2009, 04:10 PM
I just really want to see Bailey on this team to start the season. I hope Dusty means what he says that he's in his corner 'big time'.

ChatterRed
02-16-2009, 05:21 PM
I just really want to see Bailey on this team to start the season. I hope Dusty means what he says that he's in his corner 'big time'.

Ugh. The kid is not ready. Read his comments. Read his most recent comments. He still doesn't get it.

Micah Owings is here for a reason.

ChatterRed
02-16-2009, 05:24 PM
If they both have good springs, I would start Homer out in the bullpen. I think they should try him in the bullpen some during spring training anyway.

Bailey needs to be in a starting rotation in the minors refining his technique and earning a promotion.

It's a long season and opportunities to pitch for the Reds will arise.

Captain Hook
02-16-2009, 11:08 PM
Owings as a starter gives the Reds an very valuable bat off the bench(or even spot starter in the OF) the other 4 games that he isn't starting.As a reliever he can not be used as a pinch hitter for the most part.

If its close, Owing stints of success in the bigs and his value as a PH should be a factor in the decision.I think it will be close and end up playing out like this.Owings wins the job.

Orodle
02-16-2009, 11:35 PM
I'd start Owings (his bat would be available to PH on off days) and put Bailey in long relief. I mean if Bailey can't handle the pen then he doesnt have the mental makeup anyways to be a good pitcher. Oswalt started out in the pen and look how much that messed him up.

I think Homer would be good at comming in for an inning and throwing smoke.

redsfandan
02-16-2009, 11:49 PM
It's possible that Bailey may end up in the bullpen anyway. In a few years we could have the new nasty boys in Burton, Bray, and Bailey.

edit: ...hopefully sooner if we can unload the wonderful contract of Francisco Cordero. :(