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View Full Version : Ward/Gomes Analysis (poached from the NHS board)



Cant Touch This
02-19-2009, 08:12 AM
I read this thread started by camisadelgolf and thought it deserved a little bit of praise, not only for the research effort, but also for trying to inject an optimistic perspective into an off season generally viewed as stale. Of course, the thread was greeted with a host of negative nancy responses, but that's par for the course here, I know...

Anyway, I don't know if you ever check out what is said at the little kids table camisadelgolf, but even if this platoon doesn't materialize, and even if both of these guys hit like Willie Mays Hays in '09, and even if Ward has a glove like a ping-pong paddle, and even if Chris Dickerson earns the bulk of the playing time in LF.......the breakdown of their splits was relevant and definitely worth reading, so thanks for writing it.

The thread:

If you take a look at Gomes' and Ward's splits, you might be surprised at their production over the years. 2008 was a bit of a step backwards for both of them, but if you look at their 2006 and 2007 numbers, there are some very impressive stats.

Daryle Ward vs. RHP
254 PA
215 AB
73 H
22 2B
0 3B
10 HR
33 BB

.340/.425/.581: 1.006 OPS

Jonny Gomes vs. LHP
237 PA
197 AB
60 H
14 2B
2 3B
12 HR
34 BB

.305/.409/.579: .988 OPS

Combined:
491 PA
412 AB
133 H
36 2B
2 3B
22 HR
67 BB

.323/.418/.580: .998 OPS

More from camisadelgolf: Needless to say, if you get a line of .323/.418/.580, the Reds will be pretty happy. That's especially true when you consider that Adam Dunn, one of the game's premier hitters, is hitting .247/.381/.518 (.899 OPS) for his career. This whole time, we've been expecting a decline in production from left field, but we might be surprised and actually get an improvement at the position from players who are already in house. What do you all think? I'm not expecting a ManRam-like .998 OPS in left field, but is it realistic to say that Ward and Gomes could potentially combine to produce numbers as good as Dunn's?

redsfandan
02-19-2009, 09:29 AM
NHS board? Anyway, ...

I'm not sure if I checked the splits for Ward (think so) but I know I've posted a few times about how well a leftfield platoon of Gomes vs LHP and Dickerson vs RHP would work. I'm not sure where he got those #'s for Gomes though. Maybe from one specific season. I have the line for Gomes vs LHP from '05-'07 as .299 .402 .551 .953 which is still impressive. But I think the point is the same that some players can still be very useful if used right. It's not a popular opinion but there are some like me, camisadelgolf, TheNext44, etc that think it's possible.

If he has those two in left I have to assume that he has Dickerson in center in that scenario. If that's the case I have to think that alone would make this easier for people to accept. Ya know cuz everyone just loves WT.

Captain Hook
02-19-2009, 06:08 PM
I think that it is perfectly fine that the Reds have a lot of different options in the OF.In years past we had few options and knew that if healthy Griff and Dunn would be out there no matter what.This imo hurt the team at times because our to regulars were both very streaky.Lets not forget that at one point Dunn was actually batting 8th because he was going so bad.The point is that no matter how bad either Dunn of Griff did they would never be benched.There shouldn't be a single guy in the OF that can't be sat down and replaced with a suitable backup.

JBChance
02-20-2009, 12:48 AM
I see it as unlikely that LF will be manned by those two, particularly if AGon is back to starting SS. I think if that's the case, Hairston will definitely be in there w/ regularity, for better or for worse.

It is interesting to see the splits and potential of their platoon situation. We should stress potential though, because, as previously noted, they both took a major step in the wrong direction last year. I say that we might look for one to rebound, but not both.

Of course, it is nice to have the potential options to try out. The problems are twofold, though: How long does it take to figure out which combo works (and still get enough production to stay competitive) and will Dusty use the guys correctly. Both are difficult to answer and we will need a lot of luck for it to work out.

The other side to this coin is that with the new emphasis on speed and/or defense, neither of these guys really fit that bill; they are mostly considered offense-first types, with Ward being mostly a bat off the bench. So, in order to get with the new "small ball" approach, we would have to see some combination w/ Hairston or Dickerson.

I agree that there is some potential. We could catch lightning in a bottle. Or, it could be a complete disaster.

At least it'll be interesting ;)

redsfandan
02-20-2009, 01:33 AM
I agree that it's doubtful to happen like that but it is a nice hypothetical to think about. Have some combination of Gomes, Ward, & Jones in left for 400-500 abs. Have WT ONLY start in center when the opposing team can be easily run on. Have 600 abs leftover in left/center for Dickerson (and maybe 150+ for Hairston/Hopper).

TheNext44
02-20-2009, 02:31 AM
My biggest problem with Dusty last year was the PA's that he gave Patterson. There is no way to justify 392 PA's for a guy with a sub 600 OPS.

However, after looking more closely at last season, Patterson was sent down to AAA after 156 PA's after May 27th (around 156 too many). He was brought back up and started off and on on June 4th just a week later when Freel went down with an injury. He then only started again when Jr. and then Dunn were traded.

My point is not to justify his last 256 PA's, nothing justifies it. However, it mostly was a result of the Reds having zero depth in the Outfield. When Freel and Hopper went down, that left Patterson and Hairston, and when Hairston went down, that meant Andy Phillips or Adam Rosales.

So even if Ward/Gomes/Jones stay on the bench or in AAA all year, that would be a huge and necessary improvement from last year. Basically it means no more PA's to players like Patterson.

NarrowStairs
02-20-2009, 02:39 AM
Gomes sucks and he's a thug.
Ward is fat, slow, and way past anything you could even consider being his "prime."
Jones was a decent player for what, 2 years? 6 years ago?

I hope they all get injured in ST.

redsfandan
02-20-2009, 02:59 AM
Not to mention how ugly they are. ;)

Orodle
02-20-2009, 12:40 PM
No they aren't all-stars. Too many posters seem to think there is no inbetween. I like the additions of Gomes and Ward. No they aren't going to be MVP material but can contribute if used correctly (.....who knows with Dusty).

That being said I hope they are not the LF platoon......Dickerson better be out there.

The way I see it Gomes and Ward could be solid contributers but if the Reds want to be a contending team they need something more. I'm not saying Dickerson is a cant miss all-star or anything but I feel if he can perform anywhere near how he did last year then he would be our best option for winning. Dickerson would also be my leadoff man but we all know who will be Dusty's leadoff man regardless.

*I still think adding Tavaras is good, and if he succeedes I'm all for him leading off. I just don't want Dusty blinding penciling him in the leadoff spot the entire season only because he can run.

Jerome
02-20-2009, 02:30 PM
I'm hearing all this talk of improved defense this year. Many anti-Dunners use the defensive arguement when trying to prove his ineffectiveness. A Ward/Gomes platoon would be just as, if not more, ineffective in left.

Of course, there is no way Ward will see legit field time. I think he's been relegated to pinch hitter for the rest of his career, which is fine with me. Bring him in against the opposing teams right-handed reliever in the late innings. Gomes will have to seriously prove his worth in ST, competing with Dickerson and Hairston.

JBChance is right.

http://jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

Newman4
02-20-2009, 03:05 PM
What is the NHS board?

Cant Touch This
02-20-2009, 06:20 PM
What is the NHS board?

Sorry for titling in code. National Honors Society

NarrowStairs
02-20-2009, 06:27 PM
Not to mention how ugly they are. ;)

Ward is a decent looking cat, but Gomes looks like a jailbird.

Jones looks good too, but I hate Frenchies.

redsfandan
02-20-2009, 09:47 PM
Ward is a decent looking cat, but Gomes looks like a jailbird.

Jones looks good too, but I hate Frenchies.

Thanks, that made me laugh. :p: