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UPRedsFan
02-19-2009, 09:58 AM
It seems logical that the middle of the order will be
Votto
EE
Bruce

But who protects Bruce? If Phillips hits 6th, then right handed pitchers will never pitch to Bruce with the out machine on deck. Do you put Phillips 2nd and Dickerson 6th? Or do you put Bruce and Votto back to back?

Assuming Taveras starts every day and leads off (we know that's going to happen) and Dickerson/Hairston platoon in left.

I'd say against RHP the best line up would be:

Taveras
Dickerson
Votto
Bruce
EE
Phillips
Gonzo
Hernandez

Against LHP:
Taveras
Hairston
Votto
EE
Phillips
Bruce
Gonzo
Hernandez

DannyB
02-19-2009, 11:57 AM
Dusty Baker said that Brandon Phillips will hit fourth -- at least at the start of the year.

“The way the lineup is right now, yeah,” Baker said.



Phillips' numbers were down last year from 2007. He hit .288 with 30 home runs and 94 RBI in '07. Last year, he hit .261 with 21 homers and 78.


From Fay:
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a35acea3a-2c37-4920-b49a-ed87ff2f9e34&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

“Brandon will have a good year," Baker said. "You struggle sometimes a little bit in third or fourth year. Brandon will readjust. Sometimes they wouldn’t throw Brandon a lot of strikes. Sometimes when you’re in the middle of it, you can’t see it. When you’re smart like Brandon, you take some time away and you step back and see things.”

Taveras
Gonzales
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
EE
left fielder du jour
Hernandez

Nasty_Boy
02-19-2009, 12:28 PM
Dusty just makes stuff up. You sometimes struggle in your 3rd-4th year... Really? Or is it that you struggle because you're not a great hitter and you can't get it done without 2 sluggers being your bookends? Brandon doesn't fit the best as a cleanup hitter and he mentally he can't handle the 4 hole because he tries to become a slugger, which he is not. Put him in the 2 hole, tell him his job is to get on base and not hit HRs, then see if he adjusts. If not hit him 6th, the spot he should probably be in.

Once again the Reds run production will suffer because we have guys like Edwin that get on base hitting too low in the order. Hit Votto 3rd, Edwin 4th, and Jay 5th... We know Willy will hit 1st and JHJ will probably hit 2nd, but Phillips should be in the 6 hole especially against RHP.

CesarGeronimo
02-19-2009, 01:54 PM
I definitely agree with those who say Brandon's approach at the plate changed for the worse when he became the cleanup hitter. It's a no-brainer to get him out of the key power spots in the middle of the order to see if you can get him to use the whole field again, instead of trying to pull everything like he did last year.

UC_Ken
02-19-2009, 02:07 PM
I will never get the love affair with Phillip's bat. I heard someone say this morning that the problem is that he is a #2 hitter and he got stuck hitting cleanup. Him and his abysmal OBP shouldn't hit higher than 6th, ever. If you need to break up Votto and Bruce then your only choice is EE since he will have higher OBP and Slug than Phillips.

I like BP but he's a defensive specialist with some pop, that's it.

DTCromer
02-19-2009, 02:51 PM
Or is it that you struggle because you're not a great hitter and you can't get it done without 2 sluggers being your bookends?

Who are these 2 sluggers you speak of?

ChatterRed
02-19-2009, 03:38 PM
You can rip BP for his hitting, but he made alot of highlight reel plays last year. He can be amazing in the field.

TheNext44
02-19-2009, 03:58 PM
Phillips is not a bad cleanup hitter against lefties. Baker should just switch him and Bruce against righties, and everything would be fine. Not sure he will do that, but either way, I have always felt that lineup construction is over-rated. Just make sure you play the right guys at at the right time, and the lineup is not that meaningful.

I also think that Baker was saying more that he wished he had a true cleanup hitter, but that Phillips was as good as anyone they have now, which is kinda true. EE might be better, but we really don't know.

OesterPoster
02-19-2009, 04:05 PM
I honestly don't understand this myth that Bruce and Votto need to broken apart in the lineup. Score runs early, and you don't have to worry about an opposition's LOOGY in the later innings. 3-4-5, in my opinion, should be Votto-Bruce-EE or Bruce-Votto-EE. BP should be 6th.

If you absolutely must breakup the lefties, then Bruce-EE-Votto or Votto-EE-Bruce just makes too much sense to wrap around Dusty's brain.

Slyder
02-19-2009, 05:06 PM
I honestly don't understand this myth that Bruce and Votto need to broken apart in the lineup. Score runs early, and you don't have to worry about an opposition's LOOGY in the later innings. 3-4-5, in my opinion, should be Votto-Bruce-EE or Bruce-Votto-EE. BP should be 6th.

If you absolutely must breakup the lefties, then Bruce-EE-Votto or Votto-EE-Bruce just makes too much sense to wrap around Dusty's brain.

I still want Bruce and Votto hitting back to back vs RHP regardless and say "screw what might happen 2 abs from now" but thats not whos leading the Reds. We have a manager who's stuck in the 1980s.

RedLakerFan24
02-19-2009, 05:24 PM
Dream Line Up

1. Taveras CF
2. Phillips 2B
3. Votto 1B
4. Ramirez LF
5. Bruce RF
6. Encarnacion 3B
7. Hernandez C
8. Gonzalez SS

ian_madden
02-19-2009, 05:53 PM
I always thought that bp would be a perfect 2 hitter because of his speed, but then I checked the numbers. His obp is too low for that spot. I do believe that EE is the best fit for cleanup, with this lineup. If he can be the right/center field hitter that dusty was talking about. His numbers before this 08 were really good with runners in scoring position. I think that if we Taveras, and JHJ or Hopper can get on base, and create like I think they can then we have a really good 1 through 6. as long as we bat Gonzo 8.

My dream lineup (with this roster) is:
1. Taveras cf
2. Hopper/ JHJ Lf
3. Votto 1b (he earned this spot last yr, period.)
4. EE 3rd
5. Bruce RF
6. BP 2nd
7. Hernandez C
8. Gonzo

Hopefully this will take pressure off BP and Hernandez so they can have bounce back yrs. If this happens, then we should be better than any Reds team from this century.

Nasty_Boy
02-19-2009, 06:14 PM
Who are these 2 sluggers you speak of?

Phillips had his best year at the plate when he had Dunn and Jr having big years on each side of him. In the 2nd half last season you couldn't tell the difference between his and Cpat's numbers. He's an outmaker that has some pop. Put him 6th and forget about it... if you want to hit him 2-3-4 against lefties that's fine. But against RHP he is an out waiting to happen.

DTCromer
02-19-2009, 06:18 PM
Ok, I didn't know if you were actually saying Griffey was a slugger last year.

Nasty_Boy
02-19-2009, 06:20 PM
My lineup with the current roster.

vs. RHP
Taveras CF
Dickerson LF
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Edwin 3B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez C
Gonzo SS


vs. LHP
Hairston CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Edwin 3B
Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Hernandez C
Gonzo SS

I think Hairston and Taveras are interchangable and I would play the guy that's hot, providing either ever got hot. I would move Bruce up against LHP if he starts to show signs of improvement.

Nasty_Boy
02-19-2009, 06:36 PM
Ok, I didn't know if you were actually saying Griffey was a slugger last year.

He had his best year 2007 with a healthy Jr and Dunn hitting on each side of him. Even though Jr wasn't great last year, BPs numbers fell off after Jr was traded and then again once Dunn was moved.

Hell, Jr still out OPS'd Phillips last season and it people act like he didn't do anything. Jr was hurt, what was BP's excuse?

CesarGeronimo
02-19-2009, 07:57 PM
I like your lineups Nasty Boy. We aren't going to see anything like them from the Dust, of course, but I like 'em.

For the people who say that lineup construction doesn't matter, I'd argue that it did in Brandon Phillips' case last year because once he was installed as the cleanup hitter, he was trying too hard to hit home runs and to pull the ball. I don't know if it was here our on the Reds Reporter Web site, but I saw a great chart that showed how Phillips had hits to all parts of the field in 2007, but almost everything was to the left side in 2008.

CesarGeronimo
02-19-2009, 08:41 PM
“Brandon will have a good year," Baker said. "You struggle sometimes a little bit in third or fourth year. Brandon will readjust.”



OK, so here's my biggest fear now. Just as the Reds are finally ready to reward our patience and make their move in 2011, what happens? Guys like Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto, Burton, and possibly Frazier, Valaika, or even Alonso will all be in their third or fourth year! I can only hope and trust that Dusty has gazed into the future and has a plan to ward off this impending avalanche of third and fourth-year slumps.

TheNext44
02-19-2009, 11:02 PM
Rule number one is dealing with Dusty as your team's Manager:

Ignore everything he says to beat writers!

Dusty is a talker, that's why beat writers love him. He lets them into his office anytime and chats away with them. Over the course of the 10 hours a day that he is talking to reporters, he says at least one thing that makes no sense. Dusty's quote about Phillips in his 3rd or 4th year is one of those, I am sure.

Last year, Dusty said all kinds of things, and then acted contradictory to those statements. Not because he changed his mind, but because he didn't really mean it when he said it, and probably doesn't even remember saying it in the first place.

Dusty talks off the top of his head all day long, and as Reds fans, we must get used to all the crazy quotes that come out of his mouth.

Hands22
02-20-2009, 03:58 AM
vs Righties

Dickerson
Encarnacion
Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Gonzo
Hernandez
Pitcher
Taveras

vs Lefties

Keppinger/Hairston
Encarnacion
Votto
Phillips
Gomes
Bruce
Gonzo
Hanigan
Pitcher
Taveras

That's what I'd like to see...

UPRedsFan
02-20-2009, 09:33 AM
I like those line ups Hands. Except I think you've got an extra Gomes in there against LHP.

Ghosts of 1990
02-20-2009, 02:44 PM
Jay Bruce needs to hit 3 or 4 and stay there.

If Dusty can hit Junior 3 day in and day out then Bruce deserves his shot to develop there with the best protection available. And FWIW I'd protect him with Phillips in the cleanup spot and votto 5th with edwin 6th.

Nasty_Boy
02-20-2009, 03:22 PM
No, Jay needs to earn that spot. Once he develops better plate patience and the ability to be more effective against LHP, then hit him 3-4. Right now the 5 spot is ideal for his skill set. His power will be effective there, while his low OBP won't hinder scoring chances. He will be a great 3-4 hitter eventually (unless Dusty or whoever's managing thinks its wise to split him and Votto... dumb!) but right now Votto needs to be in the 3 spot while a combination of Edwin, BP, or even Bruce share the 4 spot according to the pitching matchup.

Hands22
02-21-2009, 05:48 AM
I like those line ups Hands. Except I think you've got an extra Gomes in there against LHP.

Oops I put an extra SS in. Gonzo will need breaks and Kepp/Hairston have hit lefties hard enough to overlook their D a bit.

Ohioballplayer
02-21-2009, 08:39 AM
Unfortunately, Dusty is an everday man, and a 1 platoon guy, with some resting, I think we will see this.

Taveras - CF
Gonzo - SS
Votto - 1B
Phillips - 2b
Bruce - RF
Edwin - 3b
Hernandez - C
Dickerson - LF
Pitcher

BLEEDS
02-21-2009, 09:37 AM
I'd rather have a monkey pick names from a hat than try to decipher logical roster construction vs. what DUHsty the Toothpick's going to put together.

Come to think of it, I'd rather have that monkey manage the game as well; at least a monkey would know to pull young pitchers out before 120 pitches, and to rest them later in the year to ensure their arms don't fall off before they hit 24, and to not put Harang in an extra inning game on 2 days rest...

Giving DUHsty the Toothpick Willy Tavares and BP and expecting him to not mess up your roster is like asking a drug addict to house sit, leave a bag of KB on your kitchen table, and expecting him not to eat all of your cheetos while you're gone.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
02-21-2009, 11:07 AM
BLEEDS

Your "snarky-ness" inspires me! I have been a faithful and overly optimistic Reds fan my whole life, but the more BS I see the more cynical I become.

Please keep spreading your message while we remember that Chris Stynes, Eric Owens, Ryan Freel, and Donnie Sadler are not the answer to the Reds problems.

BLEEDS
02-21-2009, 11:16 AM
I like the way you talk, mmm hmmm...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

tbball10
02-21-2009, 12:35 PM
i think it will be:
1- taveras cf
2- gozo ss
3- votto 1b
4- phillips 2b
5- bruce rf
6- ede 3b
7- dickerson lf
8- hernandez c

if hairston or kepp is in the lineup they will bat 2nd

Captain Hook
02-21-2009, 02:34 PM
I would go with

1. CF Hairston Jr
2. SS Keppinger
3. 1B Votto
4. 3B EE
5. RF Bruce
6. 2B BP
7. LF Dickerson/Gomes
8. C Hernandez

I wouldn't mind Gonzo at SS in the 2 spot if he proves he can be the Gonzo of old with superior D over Keppinger and decent with the bat.

BLEEDS
02-21-2009, 07:33 PM
And over in the ORG they are besides themselves, SHOCKED, that DUHsty the Toothpick said he's going to bat BP 4th.

There's 11 pages of it.

I mean, did these guys NOT watch DUHsty the Toothpick send him out to bat 4th every single freakin day last year?!?!?!?

Not only is it not shocking, it was a virtual lock.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
02-23-2009, 05:39 PM
Oh, and now BP is saying ""If you look at our team, I'm probably the only player qualified to hit there"

Great - now he WANTS to continue hacking and putting up a CPAT OPS against RHP...

UGH!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
02-24-2009, 01:04 AM
Qualified! :laugh:

There's your leader!

TheNext44
02-24-2009, 02:07 AM
Here is the full quote. It makes more sense.


"I'm going to do my best and I do think I've been doing good in that four-hole," he added. "If you look at our team, I'm probably the only player qualified to hit there, if you pay attention to it. We have a lot of lefthanders and we have to break 'em up."

He looked around the clubhouse and spotted Edwin Encarnacion and said, "and maybe him. It had to be me or Edwin and you have to take your pick. Dusty picked me and I feel like I'm ready to give us some more RBIs and some wins."


Actually that statement from Phillips is true.

Bruce has 4 PA's at cleanup, Votto 80 PA's. EE is the only other starter with any real qualifications at cleanup, and he only has 283 PA's there. His numbers at cleanup are slightly better than BP's, but not by much. Factor in experience, and BP really is the most qualified cleanup hitter the team has. Kinda sad really.


BP batting 4th
.288 .337 .484 .821

EE batting 4th
.263 .357 .481 .839

.821 OPS is not that good for a cleanup hitter, but it is better than I thought for BP.

I do want to add that most qualified is not the same as best. I believe that Bruce or Votto would be better, but they have no experience and it is just a guess.

Ghosts of 1990
02-24-2009, 03:02 AM
looks like Dusty is pidgeon holing our star in the 5th hole.... Votto will hit 3rd. I think they should be flip flopped

Nasty_Boy
02-24-2009, 10:10 AM
Joey is the star... Until Jay improves his OBP and his ability to hit LHP he needs to stay in the 5 hole. I think he's the 3 hole hitter of the future, but right now Joey Votto is the best hitter on this team.

BLEEDS
02-24-2009, 12:18 PM
Well, all we have to do now is put Keppinger in the 2 hole, and we'll really have another lineup that is better served being played UPSIDE DOWN (1-7) than the way DUHsty The Toothpick has it set...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
02-24-2009, 12:54 PM
Joey is the star... Until Jay improves his OBP and his ability to hit LHP he needs to stay in the 5 hole. I think he's the 3 hole hitter of the future, but right now Joey Votto is the best hitter on this team.

I think that Votto will prove to be quite ordinary although I hope I'm wrong. I think if you look at his numbers from last year and the fact that he is 25 what he did was not all that impressive

BLEEDS
02-24-2009, 12:59 PM
Votto will only prove to be "ordinary" ?!?!?

He is already better than Sean Casey's prime, I'll take it.

Will he ever be Albert Pujols? No.

But, for now, he is better than Jay Bruce. Bruce has a higher ceiling, but right now he's in the basement. Votto is already on the 3rd floor of what may be only a 4 or 5 story building.

Give me that in my 3 hole, for now.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
02-24-2009, 01:16 PM
Then let Joey prove to be ordinary and let Jay prove to be extraordinary. This type of thinking has been a problem with Reds lineups for a while. Joey doesn't make outs and he has a solid slugging percentage, this kind of guy needs to be hitting ahead of guys like Jay. Because Jay's OBP isn't that great, yet he put together a good SLG%... this makes him more valuable hitting behind Joey, and ideally Edwin instead of BP.

Like I said, I believe Jay will be a star but he's not there yet... and he's still behind Votto in terms of major league success.

roborobj
02-24-2009, 01:59 PM
Does anybody know what time the intrasquad game starts today?

Ghosts of 1990
02-24-2009, 04:19 PM
Jay Bruce needs protection in the lineup from the best hitter (Phillips) more then Votto does. Its a compliment to Votto if anything. It should all be about Bruce's development right now which is why its foolish to hit him 5th this year and supply him with little to no protection.

Nasty_Boy
02-24-2009, 04:37 PM
Phillips, best hitter? Hold up... am I reading that wrong?

Joey's development is just as important as Jay's... not to mention Jay is being protected by a better hitter in Edwin.

I would be fine with Jay hitting 4th behind Joey against RHP, but against LHP he needs to improve before he's in place as the center of the lineup.

BLEEDS
02-24-2009, 04:53 PM
sorry bro, you don't "protect" a developing young hitter by putting him in the 3 hole.

If he was a developed product - yes, then you "protect" him by putting better hitters behind him.

That was my argument for Dunn, he was a proven commodity, so putting a struggling EE behind him was no way to work it.

I think having EE behind Bruce - or BP for that matter - is "protection" enough.


So, again, logic out the door, this is the lineup we'll see out of DUHsty The Toothpick:

1. Tavares - out machine
2. SS du jour - whoever it is, they stink, unless it's a 99% healthy Keppinger, in which case your SS defense stinks
3. Votto - actually the only person it makes sense to have hitting here, IFF the rest of the lineup wasn't totally whacked
4. BP - out machine, who now is back to swinging for the fences. Great. but, we have to split up the lefties.
5. Jay Bruce - meh. I like him in the 5 hole. Unfortunately with the guys in front of him, there's likely to NOT be too many RBI opportunities for him. The times Votto gets on first in front of BP, will be the ML lead for DP %.
6. EE - meh meh. He'll probably put up the 2nd best OPS out of the entire group. Good thing he's batting 6th.
7. Dickerson - sure he put up a .400 OBP and a 1.000 OPS - BUT, can he BUNT! OBP is worthless, how about his ISPP?


Seriously, I'd almost flip that upside down - outside of Votto:

1 - Dickerson
2 - EE
3 - Votto
4 - Jay Bruce
5 - BP
6 - SS du jour
7 - Hernandez
8 - Pitcher
9 - Tavares

Against Lefties, I let BP hit 4th, and swap him with Bruce.

Now, if only we can get The Toothpick to buy into the Tony LaRussa theory that Willy Tavares is better off as the "2nd leadoff hitter", dude!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TheNext44
02-24-2009, 07:18 PM
sorry bro, you don't "protect" a developing young hitter by putting him in the 3 hole.

If he was a developed product - yes, then you "protect" him by putting better hitters behind him.

That was my argument for Dunn, he was a proven commodity, so putting a struggling EE behind him was no way to work it.

I think having EE behind Bruce - or BP for that matter - is "protection" enough.


So, again, logic out the door, this is the lineup we'll see out of DUHsty The Toothpick:

1. Tavares - out machine
2. SS du jour - whoever it is, they stink, unless it's a 99% healthy Keppinger, in which case your SS defense stinks
3. Votto - actually the only person it makes sense to have hitting here, IFF the rest of the lineup wasn't totally whacked
4. BP - out machine, who now is back to swinging for the fences. Great. but, we have to split up the lefties.
5. Jay Bruce - meh. I like him in the 5 hole. Unfortunately with the guys in front of him, there's likely to NOT be too many RBI opportunities for him. The times Votto gets on first in front of BP, will be the ML lead for DP %.
6. EE - meh meh. He'll probably put up the 2nd best OPS out of the entire group. Good thing he's batting 6th.
7. Dickerson - sure he put up a .400 OBP and a 1.000 OPS - BUT, can he BUNT! OBP is worthless, how about his ISPP?


Seriously, I'd almost flip that upside down - outside of Votto:

1 - Dickerson
2 - EE
3 - Votto
4 - Jay Bruce
5 - BP
6 - SS du jour
7 - Hernandez
8 - Pitcher
9 - Tavares

Against Lefties, I let BP hit 4th, and swap him with Bruce.

Now, if only we can get The Toothpick to buy into the Tony LaRussa theory that Willy Tavares is better off as the "2nd leadoff hitter", dude!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Dusty has said that Gonzo will bat 7th or 8th.


Baker said he hasn't decided if SS Alex Gonzalez will play in the first exhibition game on Wednesday. Gonzalez is still doing well but the club is taking it easy with him as I wrote yesterday. During the season, the manager said Gonzalez would likely hit seventh or eighth because there is too much running on his left knee needed for him to bat second.

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/

Here is how the lineup should be at the start of the season, if there are on surprises:

Taveras
Hairston
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
EE
Hernandez
Gonzo

Given those starting 8 players, it's about as good a lineup as one could make. Not perfect, but really, nothing to complain about.

The problem is the starting 8, not the order.

Also, can't not respond to this:


4. BP - out machine, who now is back to swinging for the fences. Great. but, we have to split up the lefties.

BP actually hits best as a cleanup hitter. Here are his career numbers batting 4th. (857 PA's)

.288 .337 .484 .821

He has his highest OBP and SLG when batting cleanup. He is not an "out machine" when batting fourth. (Please reserve the term "out machine for players who truely deserve it, like Patterson and Taveras) His numbers took a hit when Dusty tried him at #3. He really is the best option the Reds have, however sad that may be.

BLEEDS
02-24-2009, 07:56 PM
Dusty has said that Gonzo will bat 7th or 8th.

Here is how the lineup should be at the start of the season, if there are on surprises:

Taveras
Hairston
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
EE
Hernandez
Gonzo

Given those starting 8 players, it's about as good a lineup as one could make. Not perfect, but really, nothing to complain about.

The problem is the starting 8, not the order.

BP actually hits best as a cleanup hitter. Here are his career numbers batting 4th. (857 PA's)

.288 .337 .484 .821

He has his highest OBP and SLG when batting cleanup. He is not an "out machine" when batting fourth. (Please reserve the term "out machine for players who truely deserve it, like Patterson and Taveras) His numbers took a hit when Dusty tried him at #3. He really is the best option the Reds have, however sad that may be.

The highlighted are the truest statements.

I'll argue the rest.

1st off - any lineup with Willy Tavares leading off is an insanely horrible one.
I can live with Hairston in the 2 hole, only because he may be the guy who you'd like to hit behind the runner the 30% of the time Willy gets on base - since we are into sacrificing outs for runs in with this lineup. Also, there is a slight chance he might replicate his career year, albeit slight - AND a slight chance they may platoon him with Dickerson.
I GUESS I can live with that.

However, after that, I take great umbrage.

BP is not the best option, not by far.
His "career" OPS is ridiculously skewed by his ridiculous numbers against LHP.
Against RHP, his Career OPS is .688, with a .294 OBP.
Let me repeat:
CAREER OPS of .688, including a .294 OBP.
I shudder to think what that is versus Patterson and Tavares. I don't want to know.
He's faced RHP over 70% of the time BTW.

I think he "took a hit" when he no longer had KGJ in front of him and Adam Dunn behind him.
IMO, he'll struggle to put up a .750 OPS this year, meanwhile EE will easily put up .800+. He is more consistent against RHP/LHP - and actually puts up numbers fairly close to what BP does against LHP.

There's no rhyme or reason to put him ahead of EE, none. I don't see it one bit. The only reason is BP's fragile psyche, and the numbheadedness of one DUHsty The Toothpick.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
02-24-2009, 10:08 PM
First Spring Day lineup:

Willy Taveras cf
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss
Joey Votto 1b
Brandon Phillips 2b
Jay Bruce rf
Edwin Encarnacion 3b
Chris Dickerson lf
Ramon Hernandez c
Jacque Jones dh
Edinson Volquez p

Seriously, could it BE more DUHsty-riffic?

CF
SS
Only thing right
Big Whiffer
Best Potential, wasted
Best Power Righty, wasted
Best Leadoff Hitter, wasted
Catcher
Pitcher

Wow, so unoriginal and unshocking, it's almost comical...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
02-24-2009, 10:20 PM
Switch BP and Edwin and I could live with that lineup.

TheNext44
02-25-2009, 12:51 AM
The highlighted are the truest statements.

I'll argue the rest.

1st off - any lineup with Willy Tavares leading off is an insanely horrible one.
I can live with Hairston in the 2 hole, only because he may be the guy who you'd like to hit behind the runner the 30% of the time Willy gets on base - since we are into sacrificing outs for runs in with this lineup. Also, there is a slight chance he might replicate his career year, albeit slight - AND a slight chance they may platoon him with Dickerson.
I GUESS I can live with that.

However, after that, I take great umbrage.

BP is not the best option, not by far.
His "career" OPS is ridiculously skewed by his ridiculous numbers against LHP.
Against RHP, his Career OPS is .688, with a .294 OBP.
Let me repeat:
CAREER OPS of .688, including a .294 OBP.
I shudder to think what that is versus Patterson and Tavares. I don't want to know.
He's faced RHP over 70% of the time BTW.

I think he "took a hit" when he no longer had KGJ in front of him and Adam Dunn behind him.
IMO, he'll struggle to put up a .750 OPS this year, meanwhile EE will easily put up .800+. He is more consistent against RHP/LHP - and actually puts up numbers fairly close to what BP does against LHP.

There's no rhyme or reason to put him ahead of EE, none. I don't see it one bit. The only reason is BP's fragile psyche, and the numbheadedness of one DUHsty The Toothpick.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


I bet he hits terribly against guys whose middle initials are M-R, but does great against guys who met their wives on a blind date.

Who cares about splits if his overall production is fine, well not fine, but the best the team has right now. It is all about overall production.

Adam Dunn hits terribly with two strikes, downright awful, Patterson/Taveras awful, but he still put up great numbers overall. He could hit .000 with two strikes, as long as he overall OPS was 900+. It just doesn't matter.

I could give a rat's behind about the players splits as long as his overall production is strong. The only reason why splits are valuable are for knowing who to hit in specific situations or for platoons.

Sure, it might make more sense to have BP hit 6th against right handed starters, but even then, he will probably have one or two PA's against a lefty later in the game. This is another reason why lineups just are not that important.

And I thought I presented a decent "rhyme and reason" why BP should bat 4th: he has the most experience, and has done the best there. There is also rhyme and reason why EE would should bat cleanup, but I don't see it as any more convincing than for BP. IMO, it's a coinflip.

RedLakerFan24
02-25-2009, 02:00 AM
1. Willie Taveraz
2. Orlando Cabrera
3. Joey Votto
4. Brandon Phillips
5. Jay Bruce
6. Edwin Encarnacion
7. Ramon Hernandez
8. Pitcher
9. Chris Dikerson

BLEEDS
02-25-2009, 10:59 AM
I bet he hits terribly against guys whose middle initials are M-R, but does great against guys who met their wives on a blind date.

Who cares about splits if his overall production is fine, well not fine, but the best the team has right now. It is all about overall production.

Adam Dunn hits terribly with two strikes, downright awful, Patterson/Taveras awful, but he still put up great numbers overall. He could hit .000 with two strikes, as long as he overall OPS was 900+. It just doesn't matter.

I could give a rat's behind about the players splits as long as his overall production is strong. The only reason why splits are valuable are for knowing who to hit in specific situations or for platoons.

Sure, it might make more sense to have BP hit 6th against right handed starters, but even then, he will probably have one or two PA's against a lefty later in the game. This is another reason why lineups just are not that important.

And I thought I presented a decent "rhyme and reason" why BP should bat 4th: he has the most experience, and has done the best there. There is also rhyme and reason why EE would should bat cleanup, but I don't see it as any more convincing than for BP. IMO, it's a coinflip.

You are entitled to your opinion.
Don't let facts get in the way.

Splits are VERY important, especially when you're talking baseball.
CONSISTENCY is what you want, and you DON'T get that with BP.

If 70% of the time you are Corey Patterson, and 30% of the time you are Barry Bonds, overall, you are MORE Corey Patterson than anything else.

This isn't situational, 2 strikes type stuff, this is ALL THE TIME versus RHP.

Oh, and BTW, I checked, his career OPS vs. RHP (.688) is WORSE than Corey Patterson (.716) and just a hair above Willy Tavares (.670).

That's disgusting.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TheNext44
02-25-2009, 03:55 PM
This isn't situational, 2 strikes type stuff, this is ALL THE TIME versus RHP.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Please don't teach any logic courses. lol (just kidding)

All splits are situational, or else they wouldn't be splits.

Dunn hits terribly ALL THE TIME with two strikes, but overall his numbers are great. BTW, 57% of Dunn's PA's are with two strikes.

BP hits terribly ALL THE TIME against RHP, but overall his numbers are decent.

flash
02-27-2009, 11:33 PM
Call me crazy, but this is what I'd go with

Dickerson/ LF
Hairston, Keppinger SS
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
EE 3B
Hernandez/ Hannigan C
Taveras/ Hopper CF
P

I don't like the idea of Taveras leading off. His OBP isn't all that great and his batting average with runners in scoring position is abysmal. Against lefties nearly non- existent. If he does come after the pitcher with runners on he will have a hard time driving them in. With two outs his batting average isn't all that great either. If he gets on infront of the pitcher there is a better chance of him standing at 3rd following a steal and a sacrifice. In my opinion Taveras is much more suited to the 8 slot than the 1.

Dickerson does not need to be in the 7 slot. I believe he has a good shot to flirt with .300 and his speed although not as great as Taveras may be good for 20 SB's.

For the time being, I' ll concede Bruce to full-time status, but his batting against lefties must improve and that during April when the Reds will see a lot of them. The minors are for learning though not the majors. I'd hate to lose ballgames waiting for someone to learn about lefties.

I am about ready to give up on Gonzo. His knee still isn't ready. Even when it is will he have the range of previous years. If not then he offers little more than Hairston or Keppinger. The Reds may want to let the insurance pay his salary.

UC_Ken
02-28-2009, 02:26 PM
Oh, and BTW, I checked, his career OPS vs. RHP (.688) is WORSE than Corey Patterson (.716) and just a hair above Willy Tavares (.670).

That's disgusting.


Are you saying you wouldn't bat Patterson or Tavares cleanup? Don't give Dusty those stats, he may try putting Wily there. Or resign Patterson to hit cleanup.

I was having the same argument with my brother a couple nights ago. He thinks that EE is too inconsistent to hit cleanup and we should put BP there. BP may be consistent but the only thing he is against rightys is consistently awful. The next person who gives me a solid reason why BP should hit anywhere above 6th against right handers will be the first. BP is a glove man who can hit leftys well, stop trying to make him something he isn't.

Nasty_Boy
03-01-2009, 02:07 AM
BP is a talented player that put up career numbers due to the players around him. Dunn and Jr both had good years in '07, and BP flourished once moved in between the two. Give Jr a bad year on top of a bad team, coupled with the trading of both Dunn and Jr and you get BP stats that look like CPat stats. BP is a crazy talented player but he has ZERO discipline and TERRIBLE manager that puts him in a situation to fail. Hit the kid 2-3-4 against LHP and bump him to 6-7 against RHP while playing the numbers with the rest of the guys... I probably shouldn't mention this, Dusty may get confused.

BLEEDS
03-01-2009, 11:31 AM
Nasty and UC Ken give me hope that yes, indeed, there are intelligent posters with which to have conversations with in the SunDeck...

and NOT just because they agree with me, but that is a good variable... ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

express
03-01-2009, 11:49 PM
Vs. LHP
Hairston LF
Keppinger SS
Votto 1B
Encarnacion 3B
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Hernandez C
Hopper CF

Vs. RHP
Hopper LF
Dickerson CF
Votto 1B
Encarnacion 3B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Keppinger SS
Hernandez C

Nasty_Boy
03-02-2009, 12:47 AM
I don't see any way other than injuries that Hopper makes this team. The team has invested in Taveras, and he and Hopper are basically the same player. Taveras runs better and plays better D, Hopper seems to have a little more pop but it's still almost non-existent.

I think that Kepp and JHJ both do things well from time to time but they end up getting exposed after extend periods of time. Both are a negative on defense, but they both have value if used correctly.

But everyone should know that it will take an act of God and 0 for 100 streak to get removed from the lineup, let alone the leadoff spot. He's gonna be there barring injury so I'm trying to get used to it.

I think the 2 hole and the 7-8 spots could be in flux, but other than that we'll see Willy leading off, Joey 3rd, BP 4th, Jay 5th, and Edwin 6th. Dusty is pretty hard headed and he doesn't like to go against the crap philosiphy that he's talked for years.

flash
03-02-2009, 09:56 AM
I don't see any way other than injuries that Hopper makes this team. The team has invested in Taveras, and he and Hopper are basically the same player. Taveras runs better and plays better D, Hopper seems to have a little more pop but it's still almost non-existent.

I think that Kepp and JHJ both do things well from time to time but they end up getting exposed after extend periods of time. Both are a negative on defense, but they both have value if used correctly.

But everyone should know that it will take an act of God and 0 for 100 streak to get removed from the lineup, let alone the leadoff spot. He's gonna be there barring injury so I'm trying to get used to it.

I think the 2 hole and the 7-8 spots could be in flux, but other than that we'll see Willy leading off, Joey 3rd, BP 4th, Jay 5th, and Edwin 6th. Dusty is pretty hard headed and he doesn't like to go against the crap philosiphy that he's talked for years.

I don't see how Taveras is considered a better fielder than Hopper. He may have a better arm, but that is about it. Hopper has had a better range factor and fielding percentage his entire career. Actually aside from the steals Hopper is probably the better ballplayer.

You may be right though because of the contract Taveras signed. I don't think the Reds will eat it. It will be interesting to see how dusty handle things if Hopper continues to do well and Taveras continues to struggle to reach first base.

Nasty_Boy
03-02-2009, 12:06 PM
I don't think there is enough evidence to say that Hopper has better range... He has about 100-110 outfield starts, am I way off? Fielding percentage isn't a good stat to judge players, especially outfielders. Maybe you're right about him being a better fielder, but Norris always looked shaky IMO.

flash
03-03-2009, 11:49 PM
Speaking of line-ups has anyone noticed that Taveras hasn't been in one the past three games. His batting average is .100 OBP .182. he has scored 1 run.

His replacements Dickerson, Macdonald, and Hopper are batting .333 with 1 RBI and 1 RS. Is Dusty looking at options? Could Taveras lose his job even though he does have a 3 million dollar contract?

flash
03-04-2009, 12:02 AM
Just a touch up. It was good to see that Bruce took a lefty out today. Hope that is an indicator of things to come.

One other point about Taveras. Since I live hear in Houston now I remember how disturbed the Astros were about his fielding. Sure he had great speed, but he had problems picking up the ball off the bat. He even turned the wrong way at times totally negating his speed. I' ll admit Hopper has a dead arm and throws like an infielder with that sidearm sweep, but the guy can flat out fly in the outfield. I remember somebody mentioning there were a couple of balls that looked like hits that he ran down. (Of course, who can forget when he knocked Freel out cold, then saved the out with the ball roll.)

Captain Hook
03-04-2009, 01:28 AM
Speaking of line-ups has anyone noticed that Taveras hasn't been in one the past three games. His batting average is .100 OBP .182. he has scored 1 run.

His replacements Dickerson, Macdonald, and Hopper are batting .333 with 1 RBI and 1 RS. Is Dusty looking at options? Could Taveras lose his job even though he does have a 3 million dollar contract?

Taveras is playing in the WBC for the Dominacan.Today against Fla. he went 1-3 and scored a run.Thought I also saw that he struck out twice.