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WildcatFan
02-25-2009, 05:47 PM
I think that we can all agree that Homer is one of, if not the, biggest wild card heading into opening day, and I think that he has to have a pretty convincing spring to earn that ambiguous fifth spot that we could all draw straws for and have just as good of a chance of predicting.

So this thread is for tracking Homer's spring development to see if he could indeed the answer to the question: What one Reds player has the best chance to help this team to 90 wins? I'll start:

Bailey pitched well today against the defending AL Champs Tampa Bay Rays (sounds less cool in ST, huh), retiring the side in order in the seventh. That said, and Marty mentioned something along these lines on the air, why toss Bailey in for the seventh, a guy who is competing for a starting spot, and leave him in one inning? I'm not saying he should start the first game, but it seems strange to start out using him this way. Maybe it's a confidence builder give him five one-inning appearances to not give up a run but with Micah Owings getting a start tomorrow, Bailey's confidence can't be too high after a junk inning today.

Discuss

reds1869
02-25-2009, 05:50 PM
Perhaps the Reds are auditioning him for long/middle relief. At some point they might decide that is the best way to use him, so trying him in that spot now isn't a terrible idea.

Ghosts of 1990
02-25-2009, 06:49 PM
I think its what Brantley said; they're trying to rebuild his confidence from the ground level. They're trying to get him in, get him a few good outings and get him out before there is a chance for anything bad to happen. Don't know if I like the philosphy or not but I understand it. Bailey couldn't have done anything more with his opportunity today then he did. He threw WELL.

I think also and someone brought this point up in the liveblog, while Cueto and Volquez are away for the WBC you are going to see homer have a chance to really compile some innings so this should be a good opportunity for him to log additional innings as well.

xavr1
02-25-2009, 07:08 PM
If Dusty had to decide today, he would probably be going with Owings as the fifth starter and that's why he is starting tomorrow and Homer pitched just one inning of relief today. There's still over a month of ST left, so Marty might be making more of this than is warranted.

davereds24
02-25-2009, 07:08 PM
I think they know what they can get with bailey, they just have to get him to that point by the end of ST. They really don't know what some of the other young guys including owings can do, so we might see more of them early.

Roush's socks
02-25-2009, 07:10 PM
Agree. Bailey will get a chance this spring. It seems the 5th spot is Owings' to lose. the Reds want Micah to pan out since they gave up Dunn for him. That said, if he struggles then Bailey will have a chance.

When you think about it the Reds are in a good place when they are looking at multiple options for the 5th rotation spot. Best case, 2 of those guys pitch well enough to start, and they trade Arroyo for a real SS.

Handofdeath
02-25-2009, 07:28 PM
Quite honestly, I think that Bailey and the Reds would be better served by sending him down to AAA at least until September callups. His performance at Louisville was very underwhelming last season and I think at 22 you run the risk of ruining his confidence if you put him out there. He can't get Major League hitters out right now.

RedLakerFan24
02-25-2009, 07:56 PM
maybe we need to show case him to trade him, lets say someone like Alex Rios

DTCromer
02-25-2009, 08:01 PM
What would a Homer Bailey ST thread be without this?

Hopefully he's a lot more focused than year's past.

http://www.magsn.com/images/522.jpg

davereds24
02-25-2009, 08:10 PM
maybe we need to show case him to trade him, lets say someone like Alex Rios

they've already said they aren't adding payroll, he is making a fortune.

TheNext44
02-25-2009, 08:33 PM
There are a million factors that go into deciding who pitches when and for how long in Spring training.
Early on, since there are so many players to look at, it is common for guys competing for a starting spot only go one inning. Then, after the first set gets sent down, pitchers start throwing for more and more innings.
I would read nothing into this. If he only gets to pitch one inning the next time out, then that means they probably are thinking about moving him to the bullpen.

Ghosts of 1990
02-25-2009, 09:08 PM
Couple of things:

I think Owings is absolute junk. Nothing to get excited about. He will get shelled at GABP year in and year out. I dont care that he can hit.

-If Homer doesn't make the rotation why do we have to dump the guy? Heck, in 3 years he's still going to be a very young pitcher. The potential is there. Lets sink or swim with the guy in our control.

I know the Phillies gave Gavin Floyd away (former top 5 pick) and the White Sox ended up with a heck of a good young Pitcher. We don't HAVE to get rid of Homer for any reason. I don't understand this when people want to trade a guy who is 22 years old with still a ton of potential.

DTCromer
02-25-2009, 09:42 PM
Couple of things:

I think Owings is absolute junk. Nothing to get excited about. He will get shelled at GABP year in and year out. I dont care that he can hit.

-If Homer doesn't make the rotation why do we have to dump the guy? Heck, in 3 years he's still going to be a very young pitcher. The potential is there. Lets sink or swim with the guy in our control.

I know the Phillies gave Gavin Floyd away (former top 5 pick) and the White Sox ended up with a heck of a good young Pitcher. We don't HAVE to get rid of Homer for any reason. I don't understand this when people want to trade a guy who is 22 years old with still a ton of potential.

I don't get the obsession with Owings either. We'll see how he performs.

As for Homer, he never had to be the HOFer people were wanting him to be, I just wanted him to improve throughout his career here and he just plateaued, regressed at Louisville. I wouldn't mind holding onto him, but at some point potential is just a wasted word.

Carolina Red
02-25-2009, 10:27 PM
I think whether Homer wins the fifth starting spot or not he will see time in the rotation this year. It's almost impossible for a team to go through an entire season without at least one pitcher going to the DL. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Arroyo traded in July if the Reds are out of contention.

DTCromer
02-26-2009, 12:42 PM
In my opinion, this is the year Homer and Edwin have to get to the next level. If not, then they're simply not the guys who we thought they could be. At least Edwin has shown signs of brilliance. I'd be very disappointed if at least 1 of these guys didn't take that next step. If just 1 of these guys does it, I'd be a very, very happy man.

JBChance
02-26-2009, 12:51 PM
I don't get the obsession with Owings either. We'll see how he performs.


We'll get a look today. I hope he does well - at the very least, it may push Bailey to try to achieve.

We need to see Bailey start off a few ST games and go 2-3 innings. That will put him in versus some better hitters than yesterday. I still think that we've seen what he has last year, but I would LOVE to be completely wrong about that.

Still great to see him throw well.

Ghosts of 1990
02-26-2009, 01:13 PM
We'll get a look today. I hope he does well - at the very least, it may push Bailey to try to achieve.

We need to see Bailey start off a few ST games and go 2-3 innings. That will put him in versus some better hitters than yesterday. I still think that we've seen what he has last year, but I would LOVE to be completely wrong about that.

Still great to see him throw well.


Homer may never be dominant but I'm confident that he really is better then he showed last year.

Rusty the Red
02-26-2009, 01:44 PM
I'm hoping Owings and Homer work out.

Ghosts of 1990
02-26-2009, 02:25 PM
I'm hoping Owings and Homer work out.

Can't have both I don't think. Unless one is in the pen (possible)

goreds2
03-02-2009, 09:52 AM
Have a good one today Homer. :thisyear:

Eric_the_Red
03-02-2009, 09:55 AM
I think many fans have given up on Homer way too early. Sure, he may not become the ace that everyone envisioned, but I think he needs more ML IP before he is declared a bust. (Which he could very well be, but I'd like more evidence before pulling the plug on him.)

Ghosts of 1990
03-02-2009, 11:19 AM
Really pulling for Homer to build on his momentum and have a great start today!

Handofdeath
03-02-2009, 01:01 PM
I don't get the obsession with Owings either

Maybe it's because he went 30-10 in college or that he is 17-3 pitching in the minors. Or maybe it's because in 116 AB's against MLB pitching his line is .319/.355/.552.

TippyDrunks
03-02-2009, 03:32 PM
Well Homer had a great start today 3 innings pitched 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk and 4 strikeouts so let the competition begin with Owings.

mroby85
03-02-2009, 03:32 PM
3 IP, 0 ER, 4 K's 1 H
Nice game!

xavr1
03-02-2009, 04:24 PM
More starts like this and Dusty has to give him the fifth spot, right? All you ever hear is that his stuff is so nasty. Unless he trips up, you gotta like his upside more than Owings.

WildcatFan
03-02-2009, 04:50 PM
Very nice start — the K/BB is very promising, seeing as how control has been one of his biggest issues. Also, I'm interested to hear what he's hitting on the gun this spring because it seems like he was down to around 90 mph toward the end of last season, while I feel like he was touching 96 his first time up with Cincinnati. Anybody have an idea?

goreds2
03-02-2009, 05:17 PM
Not sure about the MPH but thanks all for the information concerning Homer's start today. Great news.

Nasty_Boy
03-02-2009, 05:37 PM
He was throwing in the mid 90's again at the end of last season in Louisville when Walt made the trip down to see him.

Eric_the_Red
03-02-2009, 05:51 PM
If Homer can consistently hit mid-90's with control, and learns to spot his slider and mix in a change piece every now and then, then wow. The fifth starter spot is locked up. Granted, that is an enormous "if".

WildcatFan
03-02-2009, 06:04 PM
If he can do that, then we have Aaron Harang 2.0, and I would put our 1-5 against any rotation in baseball <knocks on wood>.

Ghosts of 1990
03-02-2009, 07:01 PM
This made my day today...... the way Homer Bailey threw. Keep it going brother

aubashbrother
03-02-2009, 07:29 PM
Very promising start hopes he keeps it going and nails down the 5th spot.

DTCromer
03-02-2009, 10:42 PM
Well this is certainly some great news. Hopefully he keeps it up. I just want some consistency out of him.

$1 Hot Dog
03-03-2009, 01:11 AM
If you asked me a week ago I would have said something completely different, but I really hope that Homer gets the 5th spot. I love Owings, but I think that he is going to make the team no matter what as if not the 5th starter, a reliever and pinch hitter. Use Owings as the long man and let Homer start. Before you send Homer down again give him a chance to start and to build some confidence pitching against major league hitters. If that doesnt work out you can still flip flop him and Owings and let Homer try to be the long man for awhile before he is immediately demoted. Give the kid a chance. His biggest problem right now is his experience and attitude and those will obviously only improve as he pitches more and matures.

gedred69
03-03-2009, 01:23 AM
Somewhere, during a broadcast or whatever, I heard that Homer has made some obvious adjustments to his delivery. The evaluation posted on this website awhile back from some pitching guru indicated some serious flaws with same. Maybe he has made appropriate adjustments, and is now ready to become a MLB pitcher. I hope so, as so far he and Owings have pitched well, and placed themselves as the early forerunners for #5 and the long reliever. I love it! Masset did himself no favors, but it can not be stressed enough. It is still early. I will attend several games next week and hope to see both pitch. Let's see how they do when teams start getting serious ready.

ChatterRed
03-03-2009, 12:43 PM
Bailey has to earn it. If he starts fading and ends up so-so in spring training, then send him to AAA. Last thing he needs is to get beat up again.

If he is dominant, then give him the 5th spot and put Owings in relief. Someone is bound to get hurt during the season anyway, and Owings can fill in then, or replace Bailey if he falters.

It's a good situation to have.

NorrisHopper30
03-03-2009, 01:22 PM
Does anyone know how I can find a list of players Homer struck out or who he was facing when he was pitching?

Farnsie
03-03-2009, 03:17 PM
Just watched the article about him on Mlb.com and he seems like a good kid and seems to have "got it" as far as training and motivation. Love it...

WildcatFan
03-03-2009, 07:11 PM
Does anyone know how I can find a list of players Homer struck out or who he was facing when he was pitching?

Homer struck out Andrew McCutchen twice, Freddy Sanchez and Jason Jaramillo.

Captain Hook
03-03-2009, 07:42 PM
Glad Homer is doing well.The 5th spot in the rotation is so important to the Reds this year and so far so good.

Roush's socks
03-03-2009, 09:08 PM
Having an average #5 pitcher as opposed to a terrible one can be the difference between a decent season and losing. Homer is still young and if he puts together the potential that he always had he could be good.

Grande Donkey
03-07-2009, 02:19 PM
1-2-3 first for Homer on only 9 pitches.

goreds2
03-07-2009, 05:00 PM
Homer gave up one run today. His only one in the spring thus far.

Captain Hook
03-07-2009, 05:01 PM
4IP 6H 1ER 0BB today against Tor.This imo was the most impressive ST start so far.Baily was able to pitch out of trouble a few time and walked none.Dealing with a little adversity is a true sign of a maturing Homer Bailey.The pressure of competing for the 5th spot had to be in the back of Homer's mind as well considering the competition has had some impressive starts lately.

jmac
03-07-2009, 06:52 PM
I think if I heard Thom right, Bailey has now went 8 ip with 1 ER.

tbball10
03-09-2009, 05:37 AM
I sat right behind the scouts at this game and Bailey was unimpressive. He looked a lot like the pitcher he was last season. His fastball had no zip (88-92), and he was missing his spots too much. With that said, he did stay composed (which was very nice to see) and pitch out of trouble a few times, but I have no idea where his velocity was. Hopefully he just didn't have his good stuff, and battled through it, but after last year, this start seemed like the norm rather than the exception.

Owings looked awesome on Sunday! He was around the plate and really attacked the hitters. His stuff was great as evidenced by his 6 K's, and the Jays did not make good contact on him all day.

redsfandan
03-09-2009, 11:18 AM
If you asked me a week ago I would have said something completely different, but I really hope that Homer gets the 5th spot. I love Owings, but I think that he is going to make the team no matter what as if not the 5th starter, a reliever and pinch hitter. Use Owings as the long man and let Homer start. Before you send Homer down again give him a chance to start and to build some confidence pitching against major league hitters. If that doesnt work out you can still flip flop him and Owings and let Homer try to be the long man for awhile before he is immediately demoted. Give the kid a chance. His biggest problem right now is his experience and attitude and those will obviously only improve as he pitches more and matures.
Man I hope they don't do that. ...

Here's a couple other relevant posts from the start of this thread:

I think that we can all agree that Homer is one of, if not the, biggest wild card heading into opening day, and I think that he has to have a pretty convincing spring to earn that ambiguous fifth spot that we could all draw straws for and have just as good of a chance of predicting.

So this thread is for tracking Homer's spring development to see if he could indeed the
answer to the question: What one Reds player has the best chance to help this team to 90 wins? I'll start:

Bailey pitched well today against the defending AL Champs Tampa Bay Rays (sounds less cool in ST, huh), retiring the side in order in the seventh. That said, and Marty mentioned something along these lines on the air, why toss Bailey in for the seventh, a guy who is competing for a starting spot, and leave him in one inning? I'm not saying he should start the first game, but it seems strange to start out using him this way. Maybe it's a confidence builder — give him five one-inning appearances to not give up a run — but with Micah Owings getting a start tomorrow, Bailey's confidence can't be too high after a junk inning today.

Discuss


I think its what Brantley said; they're trying to rebuild his confidence from the ground level. They're trying to get him in, get him a few good outings and get him out before there is a chance for anything bad to happen. Don't know if I like the philosphy or not but I understand it. Bailey couldn't have done anything more with his opportunity today then he did. He threw WELL.

I think also and someone brought this point up in the liveblog, while Cueto and Volquez are away for the WBC you are going to see homer have a chance to really compile some innings so this should be a good opportunity for him to log additional innings as well.

It's still early in spring training where the games don't count and most of the stars aren't even in the lineup everyday (especially with alot of them in the WBC). The stars that ARE in the lineups are mostly just working on what they have to so they're ready when the season starts.

I know people want Bailey to pan out and fulfill his potential to become a top of the rotation starting pitcher and I'd love to see that too. But he has yet to show that he can start against good lineups during the regular season, get rocked, and rebound in his next start. If he had he'd already be in the rotation.

If he doesnt work out as the #5 and you flip flop him and Owings to let Homer try to be the long man for awhile and than demote him that would mean you've taken one of the top prospects in all of baseball only a couple years ago, who already has had his stock fall, and made it harder for him to maintain the confidence needed to succeed in the majors as a Red. At that point people won't think of him as a possible starter anymore. They'll think of him as a prime example of someone who could benefit from a change of scenery. And he won't net much, if anything, in a deal at that point.

It's kinda interesting that there's an entire thread devoted to how Bailey does this spring. Yeah Bailey has the most upside but Owings has also pitched well so far but people seem to care ALOT more about Bailey even though Owings is the only one of the two that HAS had some success in the majors. Ramirez has also had some success in the majors but I don't see a thread devoted to how he's done in the WBC.

I apologize if I'm raining on everyones parade but unless Bailey keeps this up for the next 3 weeks and Owings starts to suck I still think the #5 spot should be Owings to lose with Bailey having a shot for relief. As a starter Bailey WILL get rocked in April and May. That's not pessimism, it's reality. It happens to all pitchers especially young ones. But in relief he won't have as much time to dwell on bad outings so it will be easier for him to rebound the next time out. Plus it can be easier to limit how bad the outing is (and the damage to his confidence) if it's in relief. That's how I'd like to give him a chance. By making it easier for him TO succeed.

Bailey has done well so far which is great but thanks to the WBC Bailey won't have as much of a chance to face the stud hitters that he'd face in the regular season so I wouln't jump the gun and we don't NEED to. Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, & Owings have all had success in the majors. Because of those 5 we can afford to be cautious with Bailey to help him finally make that next step to success in the majors. Continue to pitch well in March to make the club in relief. Pitch well in relief with only a couple hiccups in April/May. Stretch him out in June. Trade Arroyo for prospects in July, slide Owings to the #4 spot, slide Bailey into the #5 spot. Pitch well as the #5 in the 2nd half. Start 2010 as the #4 with Owings the #5. Harang has a 2011 option so if we're lucky we can decline that option, have a very good rotation in 2011 of Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Owings, & Ramirez/Thompson, and use the $23+ million that would have gone to Harang/Arroyo in 2011 to lock up our young studs. That's my hope.

IF he CAN show that he can be successful consistently in relief during the season vs good lineups (or Ramirez keeps pitching well) than we can possibly think about an Arroyo deal that opens up a spot. These guys can make Arroyo expendable but ONLY if they pitch well in April, May, & June. NOT in March.

redsfandan
03-09-2009, 11:19 AM
double post.

WildcatFan
03-10-2009, 01:09 AM
I think you missed the point of the thread. Bailey is the Reds' top starting pitching prospect, and this spring is his chance to show that he can be a regular in the already young and talented Reds rotation. We're tracking the development of a young potential star whose value has dropped off in the minds of the fans because of two failed attempts at cracking the big league rotation along with control issues and reported mechanical problems. From what we have gathered so far while watching his spring, Bailey is getting guys out on a consistent basis, which is something that he hasn't done so far against major league batters.

I don't care that he's doing it against spring lineups, mostly because he is going against the same lineups that Owings, Harang and Arroyo are all seeing. As you pointed out, Owings has had more success in the major leagues that Bailey has, but he's also got four years and 30 starts on Homer, plus he's also garnered the reputation of potential long reliever/pinch hitter, and I think that he would be very valuable in that role. The other difference is that, as you said, Bailey has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy, while Owings doesn't. So it is natural to want to see Bailey get over that wall and become the pitcher that we think he can become, and sooner rather than later. And it's not to dump on Owings, who I think was a great pickup and will be a great asset to this team.

As far as confidence goes, would earning a starting role and then being "demoted" to a reliever's role do any less for your confidence than having a lights-out spring and still not making the rotation, or even the club?

I also don't think that the fifth spot should be handed to Bailey, but if he and Owings have comparable springs (and good springs), you could make a very strong case to give that spot to Bailey because he is the IT prospect. If it doesn't work out, the beauty of having Owings is you can send Bailey back to AAA, tell him to keep working, and you have another guy fully capable of keeping the spot warm until Bailey's ready.

So, what I tried to get across in a really long-winded and convoluted way was that this isn't a "Give Bailey The Starting Spot Thread." It's more of a "Come On Big Guy, You Can Do It, We'd Love It If This Were The Year" thread.

Captain Hook
03-10-2009, 01:31 AM
I agree that Homer has a long way to go.It is true that the success Homer has had is just in ST but if your going to say that about Homer the same has to be said about the other guys doing well so far.I think most of us would just like to see Homer do well and ST or not there is reason for hope.

I still think that it is Owings job to loose but Bailey can still play a huge roll on this team even if he isn't on the OD roster.My guess is that he could still end up starting more then 10 games this season however I do know that he has only 1 option left.I'm not sure how that works with bouncing back and forth from the bigs and AAA in the same season.As far as I know he would be able to go back and this season but after 09 he would have to stay on the team or be released.Is this correct?

stock
03-10-2009, 01:40 AM
Wildcat Fan,

Well done. Go Homer.

redsfandan
03-10-2009, 01:45 AM
If a player is out of options they have to clear waivers before being sent to the minors. So basically Bailey can be sent down only one more time. If we try a 2nd time we'll likely lose him to waivers.

redsfandan
03-10-2009, 06:11 AM
Maybe I did miss the point of the thread but it sounds like my point may have been misunderstood as well. From many of the posts in this thread it sounds (at least to me) that alot of people want to instantly annoint him the fifth starter cuz of a few spring training outings, his upside, and the hope that this is the year that he makes it to the majors and stays in the majors. Well, I also think this could be the year Bailey makes it to the majors and stays up. I just don't think his role has to be in the rotation on day 1 for him to make this year a success or for him to make it as a starter long term. That's all.

IF he doesn't make the team out of spring training people shouldn't necessarily be disappointed. (At least I hope not too much) And IF he does make the team a case can be made that it would make more sense to try a different approach with a plan to move him slower. To put him in relief initially simply to make it EASIER for him TO succeed.

There have been many threads devoted to Bailey in the last year about whether he's a bust, if he'll end up as a reliever instead of a starter, and what we could get for him in a trade. Well, I think it's still premature to consider him a bust. I also think it's too early to know what his eventual role will be. But I don't want the Reds to give up on him and trade him. I want him to succeed. AS A RED.

To me an important difference between Owings/Harang/Arroyo and Bailey in spring training is that Bailey is still trying to figure out how to be successful consistently vs MLB hitters. Owings, Harang and Arroyo already know how to be successful so they're just working on getting their mechanics in sync and stretching out their arms. Whether Harang mows down a bunch of hitters in March doesn't matter THAT much to me. That's not the point cuz the games don't count yet. What counts more to me are the reports on him. What matters to me with Bailey is his consistency. Can he consistently get the job done vs MLB hitters. Hiccups are fine. Two decent starts followed by three bad ones isn't. As far as confidence goes, I think having a starting role, struggling, and then being demoted again could be worse but maybe that's just me.

You mention how Owings has garnered the reputation of potential long reliever/pinch hitter. Some people seem stuck on that for some reason. Out of 81 games in the minors and majors he's only pitched in relief 6 times. So yeah he may end up as a reliever someday but it seems that so far his teams have prefered him as a starter. My preference is that neither Owings or Bailey is a reliever for us long term. But if Bailey does end up as a successful reliever for us would that really be that bad? As far as the hitting of Owings I'm one that thinks that should be considered gravy and nothing more. Can we use him as an occasional pinchhitter? Sure. But he's a pitcher 1st. I heard him say as much on the radio just a few days ago. It sure sounded to me like he likes to hit but WANTS to pitch more. Plus if you want to point to his bat wouldn't he be more likely to accumulate more abs as a starter anyway?

I think everyone wants Bailey to succeed and want to support him including (believe it or not) me :). You said:

I don't care that he's doing it against spring lineups... The other difference is that, as you said, Bailey has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy, while Owings doesn't. So it is natural to want to see Bailey get over that wall and become the pitcher that we think he can become, and sooner rather than later.
My question is what's the rush? For once we have the kind of depth where we shouldn't HAVE to rush him into the rotation so why do it?

I understand that this thread isn't meant to be about Bailey vs Owings or Bailey vs Owings/Harang/Arroyo.

It's more of a "Come On Big Guy, You Can Do It, We'd Love It If This Were The Year" thread.
I'm with you on that, no matter how it happens.

goreds2
03-10-2009, 06:27 AM
Since Bailey pitched Saturday, he should be pitching this Thursday. Keep it going. :thumbup:

WildcatFan
03-10-2009, 12:53 PM
Redsfandan: I'm with you everywhere except probably the starting Homer out in the big-league bullpen. My hope would be that he starts the year in a rotation, whether it be in Cincinnati or Louisville, just to keep him on that starter track. I'm also on board with you on the idea that Owings' bat is overvalued by a lot of RZers.

As to the what's the rush question, I by no means am advocating that the Reds push him up before he's ready, I just hope with all hope that he is ready.

Nice post — I think we're on the same page and voicing it in different ways.

redsfandan
03-10-2009, 02:51 PM
Redsfandan: I'm with you everywhere except probably the starting Homer out in the big-league bullpen. My hope would be that he starts the year in a rotation, whether it be in Cincinnati or Louisville, just to keep him on that starter track.

That's a valid point. It'll be interesting to see what they do.

I'm also on board with you on the idea that Owings' bat is overvalued by a lot of RZers.

As to the what's the rush question, I by no means am advocating that the Reds push him up before he's ready, I just hope with all hope that he is ready.

Nice post I think we're on the same page and voicing it in different ways.
Thanks, same to you. Bailey is still only 22 and won't be arbitation eligible for a couple more years. The future is still pretty bright from where I'm sitting.

Ghosts of 1990
03-10-2009, 04:01 PM
I sat right behind the scouts at this game and Bailey was unimpressive. He looked a lot like the pitcher he was last season. His fastball had no zip (88-92), and he was missing his spots too much. With that said, he did stay composed (which was very nice to see) and pitch out of trouble a few times, but I have no idea where his velocity was. Hopefully he just didn't have his good stuff, and battled through it, but after last year, this start seemed like the norm rather than the exception.

Owings looked awesome on Sunday! He was around the plate and really attacked the hitters. His stuff was great as evidenced by his 6 K's, and the Jays did not make good contact on him all day.

Just my 2cents here but it sounds to me like you have an agenda and you're just an Owings fan as opposed to a Bailey fan. You can counter by saying you are a Reds fan, but it sounds like you have an issue with Bailey.

What more do you want the kid to do? He's throwing good baseball (1 run all spring) but he's not doing it the way you like it? On the other hand, Owings is so impressive? I don't know if I buy that. It doesn't matter. Owings will probably get the spot because Baker doesn't like Bailey; and Owings will get hit all over our park and Bailey will take his spot.

batsfan
03-10-2009, 05:06 PM
Since Bailey pitched Saturday, he should be pitching this Thursday. Keep it going. :thumbup:

Thursday is an off day, Bailey will pitch in relief tomorrow.

JBChance
03-10-2009, 07:19 PM
It doesn't matter. Owings will probably get the spot because Baker doesn't like Bailey; and Owings will get hit all over our park and Bailey will take his spot.

That sentence says four things. One is not true; the other three, unless you have a magic 8-ball of the gods, are questions yet to be answered.

The point is, it is WAY early to anoint either guy the #5 or even on the big league roster. I haven't seen anywhere that says the decision has been made.

Ghosts of 1990
03-11-2009, 04:27 PM
Bailey today: 2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 K

that is now 10 innings, 1 ER this spring for a 0.90 ERA thus far.

TheNext44
03-11-2009, 04:37 PM
M Owings 1.69 10.2 6 2 2 2 12

They both deserve the spot as of now. I can see Homer going to AAA since he is only 22, not that that is fair.

So the Reds have a problem with too many good starting pitchers. Wow.

Eric_the_Red
03-11-2009, 04:44 PM
So the Reds have a problem with too many good starting pitchers. Wow.

That's never a problem. (I know what you meant though.)

A pitcher will get hurt during the season, so having another started ready to pluck from AAA is a requirement. I just hope that if Bailey does end up getting sent down because he has options left, that it does not reverse what appears to be his attitude adjustment.

schmidty622
03-11-2009, 05:06 PM
At this point, with the way they are having Bailey come out of the pen in Spring Training, I think I would slot Owings to be the 5th starter with Bailey being the spot starter/Long guy. That does two things:
1. Allows us to use Owings' bat on a more regular and less restrictive basis.

2. Gives Homer the chance to build confidence through success against Major league batters rather than AAA guys.

I think with the mental makeup (or lack there of) that Homer has shown in the past two seasons it is vital that he come up with the big club this year in whatever role so that he can build confidence. If by mid season he is excelling in the pen, I would move Arroyo or Harang and give him a shot at the rotation.

redsfanmia
03-11-2009, 05:15 PM
At this point, with the way they are having Bailey come out of the pen in Spring Training, I think I would slot Owings to be the 5th starter with Bailey being the spot starter/Long guy. That does two things:
1. Allows us to use Owings' bat on a more regular and less restrictive basis.

2. Gives Homer the chance to build confidence through success against Major league batters rather than AAA guys.

I think with the mental makeup (or lack there of) that Homer has shown in the past two seasons it is vital that he come up with the big club this year in whatever role so that he can build confidence. If by mid season he is excelling in the pen, I would move Arroyo or Harang and give him a shot at the rotation.

I think this could be a good move, the Reds did this with Jose Rijo and Mario Soto and it seemed to work with those two guys.

kbin007
03-11-2009, 11:25 PM
I think that either Harang or Arroyo will be tough to move if they pitch anything like they did last year. Arroyo wasn't horrible last season, but his contract calls for 9.5MM this year and 11MM in 2010 with an option for 11M in 2011 (2MM buyout). Harang is 11MM this season, 12.5MM in 2010 and 12.75MM in 2011 (2MM buyout again). If the Reds need to move either of these guys, they will have to eat a lot of those numbers.

Captain Hook
03-12-2009, 03:13 AM
I think that either Harang or Arroyo will be tough to move if they pitch anything like they did last year. Arroyo wasn't horrible last season, but his contract calls for 9.5MM this year and 11MM in 2010 with an option for 11M in 2011 (2MM buyout). Harang is 11MM this season, 12.5MM in 2010 and 12.75MM in 2011 (2MM buyout again). If the Reds need to move either of these guys, they will have to eat a lot of those numbers.

I think that it is reasonable to believe that Harang and Arroyo will earn every penny of their contracts and I for one hope they do it with the Reds.The franchise has quite possibly the best group of starting pitchers that they have ever had(at least in my lifetime).Why trade any of them?

I can see why people would want to make room for some of the younger guys but none of them have the track record of Harang or Arroyo.There will be a place for both on this team for the next few years.I can't see us eating a big chunk of salary unless we get great value in return.Maybe at some point some team will offer that great value but until then these aren't bad guys to hang on to, even when you consider what they are making.

I also know that the Reds have other needs.We all must understand that the holes that need filled on this team are much easier to fill then the one hole that the franchise has been failing to fill for the last 15 years(starting pitching).

I hear a lot of people say that having too much starting pitching is a good problem to have.I do not think that this is a problem any way you look at it.IMO this is what it takes to build a franchise that contends year after year without spending 200 million dollars on payroll.It is my hope that the Reds continue to acquire even more young pitchers for the bull pen and to compete for rotation spots in the future.

kbin007
03-13-2009, 08:05 AM
I think that it is reasonable to believe that Harang and Arroyo will earn every penny of their contracts and I for one hope they do it with the Reds.The franchise has quite possibly the best group of starting pitchers that they have ever had(at least in my lifetime).Why trade any of them?

Actually, I never suggested to trade either of them, it was brought up by someone else, I was just saying that it may be hard to do so given their contracts and the economic climate, which unfortunately will be a factor on how teams are run for the foreseeable future.

dunner13
03-13-2009, 09:14 AM
I love the idea of starting bailey in the pen. Keeps his innings down while allowing him to have success in short stints. He could also spot start along the way if you needed him to. I dont think we would need to trade arroyo or harang, the reality is even the best teams dont survive an entire season with only there 5 starters. Bailey would probably get between 15-20 starts, plus the work in the pen would be a great year for him.

Farnsie
03-17-2009, 12:14 AM
Anyone have info about the intrasquad game?

Ghosts of 1990
03-17-2009, 12:17 AM
Anyone have info about the intrasquad game?

I was just wondering about this.

gedred69
03-17-2009, 09:07 PM
I'm just back from ST, saw Homer pitch. Looked good, with one shaky inning saved by a great diving Gomes catch in RF. Velocity was such that hitters were late, as he had off-speed pitches working. He should make the OD roster,----so far. My questions for this season turn to, can they score enough runs to win? Went to 3 games, the Reds were 2-1 with my attendance, (Including a 1-0 win). Pitching in general was EXCELLENT! Question for Dusty et. al. is, between Homer and Owings, who is #5, and who is long relief? It ain't OD yet, things could change.............

redsfandan
03-18-2009, 03:01 PM
Bailey might start in bullpen
Appears Owings has wrapped up 5th-starter role
By John Fay • jfay@enquirer.com • March 18, 2009

CLEARWATER, Fla. - Homer Bailey has been groomed as a starter since the Reds drafted him, but the club is mulling the possibility of him making the team as a reliever.

"Possibly," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "That's something we've discussed. It depends on if we feel that's better for him in the long run."

Baker mentioned some top pitchers who started as long relievers, such as Bob Welch, Pedro Martinez and Nolan Ryan.

"It depends on who has options left, who doesn't. A lot goes into it - as well as how you're pitching," Baker said.

• Poll: Where should Homer pitch?

Bailey went five innings, allowing three runs on four hits in a minor-league game Monday. He walked one and struck out six. "He did pretty good," Baker said. "His control was pretty good. I saw him the last couple (of innings). He slowed down. He's learning how to control himself."

Micah Owings, Bailey and Nick Masset are battling for the fifth spot. Owings has been the best pitcher in camp (two runs on seven hits over 142/3 innings). Bailey has been close behind (one run over 10 innings).

Masset has struggled (nine runs on 17 hits in 112/3 innings).

Masset might be out of the race for the No. 5 spot; he might not get another start. "That's something we have to talk about - me, (pitching coach Dick Pole and general manager Walt Jocketty)," Baker said. "We've got to make some decisions pretty soon."

It would be hard to keep Masset on the roster over Bailey, but Bailey has options and Masset doesn't.
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090318/SPT04/903180389/1071

redsfandan
03-18-2009, 03:31 PM
By the way, Hal McCoy wrote the other day that "One scout told me that the Reds are shopping Masset." Granted, this is only a rumour but it would make sense since Masset has struggled this spring and is out of options.

Root Down
03-18-2009, 04:01 PM
I'm just back from ST, saw Homer pitch. Looked good, with one shaky inning saved by a great diving Gomes catch in RF. Velocity was such that hitters were late, as he had off-speed pitches working. He should make the OD roster,----so far. My questions for this season turn to, can they score enough runs to win? Went to 3 games, the Reds were 2-1 with my attendance, (Including a 1-0 win). Pitching in general was EXCELLENT! Question for Dusty et. al. is, between Homer and Owings, who is #5, and who is long relief? It ain't OD yet, things could change.............

This is something I've been thinking about with the new Reds. Sure they will score fewer runs, but with the pitching and better defense they won't need anywhere near as many. Last season we had to score 10 runs to win and lost a bunch with scores such as 8-12. This brings small ball back into the equation and doesn't leave us waiting for Dunn to come up and smack one out of the park. If the opponents score fewer runs, which will happen this year, all the reds have to do is manufacture a few runs. This shouldn't be a problem with the speed they've got in this lineup.

IMO this pitching situation couldn't be better. One or both of these guys will work out, its just a matter of which role they slide into. I'm pulling for Bailey but think we may be waiting for him to mature, throwing him in too early with no options left would be a large mistake.

redsfandan
03-18-2009, 04:15 PM
I'm pulling for Bailey but think we may be waiting for him to mature, throwing him in too early with no options left would be a large mistake.

Bailey has one option left.

Jerome
03-18-2009, 04:38 PM
We're mostly a group of optimists when it comes to our staff, but there are lots of questions marks. Just to be devil's advocate...

Volquez--It's gonna be tough to match last year.
Harang--Oh, he lost weight? I don't care. No reason we can comfortably rely on him at this point.
Arroyo--Who knows with this guy. One of the most consistently inconsistent pitchers around.
Cueto--Great potential, but right now, it's only that.
Bailey/Owings--Russian roulette, no idea.

And even with this, we thankfully have a better staff than the other NL central teams other than the Cub scouts. I am an optimist myself with our staff, but there are no guarantees this year. We aren't proven by any means.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

redsfandan
03-18-2009, 05:57 PM
I could be wrong but I'm not sure there's any team that has 5 proven starters. Same with the comments you made about the specific starters. The fact is our pitching is in better shape than it's been in years. I agree that we shouldn't get carried away with our expectations but I think most would say that, for once, the pitching should be a strength.

Jerome
03-18-2009, 06:44 PM
the pitching should be a strength.

I agree, it should be.




http://jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

JBChance
03-18-2009, 10:14 PM
I could be wrong but I'm not sure there's any team that has 5 proven starters. Same with the comments you made about the specific starters. The fact is our pitching is in better shape than it's been in years. I agree that we shouldn't get carried away with our expectations but I think most would say that, for once, the pitching should be a strength.

I would say that the pitching might be a strength. It is far from a lock. It's the potential that has me cautiously optimistic.

The rotation will rise or fall w/Harang. He's the biggest ? right now, Imo. He's has a track record of success, but not last year. This spring, he's been far from lights out. His last start was horrifying: 6 runs on 7 hits w/3 BB in 3 1/3IP. Not good. We need him to set the tone for the young guys.

I think the one to surprise is Cueto. Everyone, including Volquez, thinks he has the best stuff of anyone on the staff. If Harang struggles, we will need him step up, in a big way, to keep it respectable.

I'm hopeful for the rotation, for they are the only hope. The offense will be, well, offensive.

Nasty_Boy
03-18-2009, 11:44 PM
There is absolutely ZERO certainty with this starting rotation. Potential, the rotation is full of it... but the Reds are counting on a lot of things to break their way.

Volquez - He's still struggling with control and he became much more hittable as the season went on.

Harang - He could return to form or he could be done. He looked terrible just 2 days ago. He's not a lock to be Mr. 16-8 with a 3.75 ERA anymore.

Arroyo - Is probably the most sure thing on this staff. He will give up HRs, have bad starts, and still be unhittable for (take your pick) two months. He'll be between 11-14 wins with a 4.15 ERA and he'll pitch over 200 innings.

Cueto - Will he harness his stuff? Will he take the leap to solid TOR starter? Or will he pitch like he's 23 and still have his ups and downs?

Owings/Bailey - Both are full of potential, especially Bailey. Both have had nice springs, but both are young and coming off shaky seasons.

I think its being overly optimistic to expect the starters to combine for 65-70 wins... is it out of reach? No, not at all. Besides Arroyo and Harang, none of these guys have a proven track record. It's all about development and maturity with the starting rotation.

gedred69
03-20-2009, 09:47 PM
Getting to watch most of the components of this staff last week, I see it like this: Harang is a ?. Arroyo will be the usual innings eater, and more often than not, will keep the team in the game---if they can score some runs! Volquez may not be a 17 gamer, but he will be more than adequate, and pretty good. Cueto I did not see, but I think he becomes extremely important, especially considering Harang has yet to show anything encouraging. I think Bailey and Owings are both ready to become serviceable MLB pitchers. So, if Harang is in fact the Pro we all expect, and Cueto is ready to make that next step, this staff could be good. (I wish the brass would jettison all these one-time flashes, and get down to playing the guys that MUST deliver if this team is to be successful). Votto, Bruce, EE, Taveras, etc. need to play regular, and get lots of ABs!

Ghosts of 1990
03-20-2009, 11:43 PM
I would say that the pitching might be a strength. It is far from a lock. It's the potential that has me cautiously optimistic.

The rotation will rise or fall w/Harang. He's the biggest ? right now, Imo. He's has a track record of success, but not last year. This spring, he's been far from lights out. His last start was horrifying: 6 runs on 7 hits w/3 BB in 3 1/3IP. Not good. We need him to set the tone for the young guys.

I think the one to surprise is Cueto. Everyone, including Volquez, thinks he has the best stuff of anyone on the staff. If Harang struggles, we will need him step up, in a big way, to keep it respectable.

I'm hopeful for the rotation, for they are the only hope. The offense will be, well, offensive.

I wanna agree with you and say by year's end we might be most excited about Johnny Cueto of anyone on this staff. Look for him to start hot again.

JBChance
03-21-2009, 03:25 AM
With the events of this last week, I'm really hoping Bailey puts it together. I'm thinking, before not too long, that we're going to need both Bailey and Owings in the rotation.

Arroyo will likely be himself, but, Harang is worrying me more than ever.

Ghosts of 1990
03-21-2009, 01:58 PM
Here's my opinion. Harang is done. He'll never regain form completely.

It would be wise to let Bailey make this rotation. He's earned it. He is young. This is a critical time. Its not going to help the guy's control to pitch once or twice a week in a long relief role. Dumb move.

Ghosts of 1990
03-21-2009, 01:59 PM
Here is a GREAT read about Homer Bailey but it will frustrate you.

http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=2364


Great long read, but like I said it might get you going a bit.

JBChance
03-22-2009, 01:02 AM
Here is a GREAT read about Homer Bailey but it will frustrate you.

http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=2364


Great long read, but like I said it might get you going a bit.

:bang:

Yeah, reading that is quite frustrating.

After scanning down through the posts after the blog, I am taking a middle of the road stance on Bailey because of his age. I agree with the fact that he still might put it together. But I also think, as a "can't miss" top prospect, he's already a "miss" in some respects. All is not lost, yet. They would be smart, at this point, to give him the shot, even if its just to resurrect his trade value.

I'll say it again after today (OK performance), he will be on the team come opening day.

Lockdwn11
03-22-2009, 07:55 AM
Here's my opinion. Harang is done. He'll never regain form completely.

It would be wise to let Bailey make this rotation. He's earned it. He is young. This is a critical time. Its not going to help the guy's control to pitch once or twice a week in a long relief role. Dumb move.

Your not saying that Homer should make this rotation over Harang are you?

redsfan1966
03-22-2009, 08:46 AM
I personally like the idea of Homer in the fifth spot and Owings in the bullpen for long relief and ph duty.....but would not be disappointed if the roles are reversed. As has been stated earlier---someone in the rotation is going down due to injury probably sometime during the year; so long story short---I would want Homer in Cincy and not starting in Louisville in 09...

Ghosts of 1990
03-22-2009, 02:14 PM
Your not saying that Homer should make this rotation over Harang are you?

What has Harang done recently to merit having rotation spot, let alone top of the rotation. Guy hasn't pitched well in a long time now, not last season, not this spring.

It would do Harang good to start out the season in the pen and let Bailey and Owings begin as starters. Let harang build his endurance or get his head on straight, whatever he needs. Harang needs it worst IMO. He has been disappointing for a long time. I don't think Harang is above that.

Ghosts of 1990
03-22-2009, 02:14 PM
I personally like the idea of Homer in the fifth spot and Owings in the bullpen for long relief and ph duty.....but would not be disappointed if the roles are reversed. As has been stated earlier---someone in the rotation is going down due to injury probably sometime during the year; so long story short---I would want Homer in Cincy and not starting in Louisville in 09...

+1 :thumbup:

Slyder
03-22-2009, 02:36 PM
I personally like the idea of Homer in the fifth spot and Owings in the bullpen for long relief and ph duty.....but would not be disappointed if the roles are reversed. As has been stated earlier---someone in the rotation is going down due to injury probably sometime during the year; so long story short---I would want Homer in Cincy and not starting in Louisville in 09...

If we are serious about possibly using Owings as a ph, how does he hold value in the pen? To use him as a PH takes an arm out of the pen unless you carry an additional arm to compensate. So just a question to those who want to use Owings in the pen just how they would use him as a ph out of the pen.

Lockdwn11
03-22-2009, 03:27 PM
What has Harang done recently to merit having rotation spot, let alone top of the rotation. Guy hasn't pitched well in a long time now, not last season, not this spring.

It would do Harang good to start out the season in the pen and let Bailey and Owings begin as starters. Let harang build his endurance or get his head on straight, whatever he needs. Harang needs it worst IMO. He has been disappointing for a long time. I don't think Harang is above that.

He has done alot more than Homer. I mean Harang has one bad year and you want to take him out of the rotation for a 22 year old that has done nothing but get hit hard when the games count. I'm not saying homer is always going to suck he is only 22 and should get better but I do think this is a knee jerk reaction on your part or you are just a big Homer fan either way it there is no way Homer will or should be in this rotation over Harang. By the way Harang pitched pretty well at the end of last year and will rebound into form this year.

Ghosts of 1990
03-22-2009, 03:37 PM
Harang has been poor for a long time now man.

At what point do we say that maybe the guy is never gonna regain form? I don't think we're far from that point.

Right now, Bailey and Owings are getting more outs then Harang by far. I don't know, I know it won't happen but Harang should get himself ironed out in a different role then being one of our frontline starters.

Lockdwn11
03-22-2009, 03:45 PM
Harang has been poor for a long time now man.

At what point do we say that maybe the guy is never gonna regain form? I don't think we're far from that point.

Right now, Bailey and Owings are getting more outs then Harang by far. I don't know, I know it won't happen but Harang should get himself ironed out in a different role then being one of our frontline starters.

Harang is working on getting ready for the season, Bailey and Owings are trying to earn a roster spot this spring. All I'm saying is spring training can be deceiving.

BLEEDS
03-22-2009, 04:38 PM
Harang is working on getting ready for the season, Bailey and Owings are trying to earn a roster spot this spring. All I'm saying is spring training can be deceiving.

I'll agree with that 100%.

Harang isn't trying to "win" spring training games, he's just getting his reps in.

Bailey and Owings are pitching like it's a wildcard playoff game.

We'll see when the season starts and Mr. Harang takes the mound for opening day.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
03-22-2009, 04:55 PM
Harang threw really well today it looks.

I wanna say that I HOPE Harang is a stud this year and returns to being one of the most consistent P's in the NL. I just have my doubts. I'm pulling for him he is a great guy and a winner

mckrider
03-22-2009, 05:05 PM
I vote Homer starts in long relief with a possible move to the rotation. I give Owings the 5th spot, I like his bat. No doubt both have had stellar springs and I would hate to see Homer optioned to AAA right now, i think it would hurt his confidence.

BLEEDS
03-22-2009, 05:06 PM
From the ORG:

"Aaron Harang has told us before, he doesn't care about results in spring training. He's more focused on zoning in the locations of various pitches. He may have a hitter at the plate that loves fastballs up & in, but Harang needs to get that pitch down for the regular season so he throws it anyway & gives up a tater. I don't remember last year, but I know Harang had a terrible spring two years ago and was fine when April rolled around. He'll be fine"

I think Harang will have a rebound year.

It's the offense we are going to be cringing about... Tavares has hamstrung this team, and he'll get MORE of a leash than Baker gave CP last year.

We are DOOMED!

PEACE

-BLEEDS