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Kingspoint
02-28-2009, 08:26 PM
I'm trying to simplify this to one idea. Totally unrealistic, but fun.

BA w/ RISP of .270 or less= 75 wins or less.

BA w/ RISP of .270-.280= 76-85 wins.

BA w/ RISP of .281 or more= 86 wins or more.

Ghosts of 1990
02-28-2009, 09:27 PM
80-82

all stats out the window

xavr1
02-28-2009, 10:02 PM
85!

Eric_the_Red
02-28-2009, 10:03 PM
85!

86

Do I hear 87?

mroby85
02-28-2009, 10:19 PM
78 (i'm not dyslexic) :D lol

CarolinaRedleg
02-28-2009, 10:29 PM
83

Another year of seasoning for the youngsters, Harang bounces back and the defense improves.

Slyder
02-28-2009, 11:07 PM
Under 70 if Duhhhsty lasts the year.

Maybe 82-85 if Duhhsty's canned and someone that understands 2000s baseball replaces him.

mroby85
03-01-2009, 12:22 AM
Under 70 if Duhhhsty lasts the year.

Maybe 82-85 if Duhhsty's canned and someone that understands 2000s baseball replaces him.

:rolleyes: I really hope you aren't serious, but i'm afraid that you are.

TheNext44
03-01-2009, 12:56 AM
I see a 755-720 run difference. That would be 85 wins according to Pythag.


Hernandez 55
Hanigan 30
Votto 105
Phillips 80
EE 80
Gonzo 75
Kepp 25
Gomes 45
Dickerson 55
Taveras 55
Bruce 100
Hairston 25
Ward 15
Pitchers 10
Total 755


Volquez 95
Harang 100
Cueto 95
Arroyo 110
Owings 120

Ramirez 35
Bray 20
Rhodes 25
Lincoln 35
Weathers 40
Burton 25
Cordero 20
Total 720

However, there is a lot of rounding that goes into all those projections and in figuring out the pythag, so it could really be anywhere from 75 wins to 95 wins, technically.

My gut tells me 89 wins. While I really don't like the Taveras signing, I do like the direction this team has taken. At least an attempt to be based on pitching and defense.

I have also always liked really young teams. They seem to gel well, and win when they are not supposed to. It's like no one told them that they shouldn't be that good.

So I am going with my gut.

89 wins.

Nasty_Boy
03-01-2009, 02:00 AM
79 and I don't care what the BA w/RISP is... I will say this team team OBP of .330-.335 will result in 75-80 wins. A team OBP of .340 or better will result in 80+ wins and an actuall shot at the playoffs. .340 and the young arms and old arms coming together means trouble for the NL... the .325 range and no progression from Cueto and Harang means another 68-75 win season.

Slyder
03-01-2009, 09:50 AM
:rolleyes: I really hope you aren't serious, but i'm afraid that you are.

meh the offense isnt in that much worse shape but I still fully expect Duhhsty to repeat the same mistakes as last year that easily could cost this team 5-7 wins it should get.

So Im updating a bit 74-80 if Duhhsty lasts.

reds1869
03-01-2009, 10:11 AM
86 and squeaking into the postseason.

Root Down
03-01-2009, 11:58 AM
I'll go 90!

TippyDrunks
03-01-2009, 12:17 PM
I'll say 79-83

gedred69
03-01-2009, 01:53 PM
I see a possibly wide range, depending on how long the "powers that be" take to set the starting line-up and most frequent players. If they keep trying the wash-ups and one-time successes in lieu of what the future should be, then 75 maybe. If they let the young and the dependable develop into a a [B]team[B], then 85, maybe a little more.

redsfan1966
03-01-2009, 02:12 PM
I'm going for 81 wins---anything more is a bonus for me...

George Foster
03-01-2009, 05:40 PM
I'd be happy with 82-80, 3rd in the NL central, and headed in the right direction.

Eric_the_Red
03-01-2009, 07:35 PM
Happy to be in 3rd? Is this a Mike Brown team trying to be "competitive"?

I think fans should expect a 3rd place finish or better this year, so if the team finishes third, we should be patient and expect more next year, but "happy"? If the Reds win the division, fans should be happy. And if they finish below 3rd, fans have a reason to be unhappy.

Jerome
03-02-2009, 12:33 AM
82.46 win average prediction so far on the board.

I'd say that's about right actually.

http://jeromesredscare.blogspot.com/2009/03/how-many-wins-this-year-feat-2000.html

thatcoolguy_22
03-02-2009, 01:40 AM
I see a 755-720 run difference. That would be 85 wins according to Pythag.




720 RA? I can see that happening but we will need a lot of things to go right. Harang bounces back, Volquez holds steady, Arroyo pitches 200+ IP with 4.20 or so ERA, The Bullpen performs as well if not better than last year, a legitimate 5th starter emerges and, Cueto takes a leap forward.

I'm not saying all of this can not happen but I will settle for 4 out of 6 :D

I'm thinking if we can somehow get Janish in SS and keep Kepp/Hairston out of it the RA could be even lower IMO.

I'm thinking we will more than likely see a 740/750 split putting us around the 79/80 win mark.

My .02

I'm rooting for N44's prediction though :cool:

Eric_the_Red
03-02-2009, 09:48 AM
720 RA? I can see that happening but we will need a lot of things to go right. Harang bounces back, Volquez holds steady, Arroyo pitches 200+ IP with 4.20 or so ERA, The Bullpen performs as well if not better than last year, a legitimate 5th starter emerges and, Cueto takes a leap forward.

I'm not saying all of this can not happen but I will settle for 4 out of 6 :D


I don't think there is any way Harang cannot bounce back after last year. He had some awful luck early, was overweight and that relief outing really hurt him. While he may not match his best years, I certainly think he should appraoch them and be a top 15 NL SP again.

Also, no reason to think that Volquez won't hold steady and Arroyo is, well, Arroyo- consistently decent.

I also look for Cueto to improve as he learns how to pitch, and not just throw. As he matures I think he can be something special.

As for the 5th starter and bullpen...well, I guess we have to wait and see how spring training goes. I just hope someone goes out and really wins the 5th spot hands down, and is able to maintain it as the season goes on.

ChatterRed
03-02-2009, 10:40 AM
87 wins!!!!

shredda2000
03-03-2009, 11:38 AM
84-78 and just missing the wildcard...

Carolina Red
03-03-2009, 08:51 PM
81 wins. I think the youngsters will improve as the season goes along. I remember how much Votto improved in the second half last year and I expect much the same for Bruce. I like our starting pitching but the pen worries me a little. I think we should have held on to Affeldt.

Captain Hook
03-03-2009, 08:59 PM
As things look right now I will say 81.

Kingspoint
03-03-2009, 09:37 PM
Since I started this and didn't give a real answer, I'm of the belief that the "intangibles" will all be in the REDS favor this year and 86 wins will be reached.

JBChance
03-04-2009, 02:20 AM
80 wins if Harang bounces back.

73 wins if he doesn't :(

TheNext44
03-05-2009, 03:31 AM
720 RA? I can see that happening but we will need a lot of things to go right. Harang bounces back, Volquez holds steady, Arroyo pitches 200+ IP with 4.20 or so ERA, The Bullpen performs as well if not better than last year, a legitimate 5th starter emerges and, Cueto takes a leap forward.

I'm not saying all of this can not happen but I will settle for 4 out of 6 :D

I'm thinking if we can somehow get Janish in SS and keep Kepp/Hairston out of it the RA could be even lower IMO.

I'm thinking we will more than likely see a 740/750 split putting us around the 79/80 win mark.

My .02

I'm rooting for N44's prediction though :cool:

I agree with you on these points. I actually only have the last three of those things happening in my projections.

Volquez's ERA would be around 4.00 with 95 runs (90 earned, since a decent defense allows around 5% of their total runs to be unearned),
Arroyo's ERA would be around 4.70 with 110 runs
Harang's ERA would be around 4.25.

Here is where I see the big improvements

1) Like you said with Janish, an average defense will save around 5% more runs. The Reds had around 10% of their runs unearned last year, that is double of league average.

2) No Majewski, or Coffey in the bullpen. I think the Reds are much deeper in the pen this year with guys like Roenicke, Herrera, Fisher and Manuel available at AAA.

3) No Belisle, Fogg or the bad Bailey in the fifth spot and long relief. They gave up 132 runs in 140 innings last year. Owing and Rameriz and maybe even a better Bailey could possible cut by a third, easily. That would be close to 50 of the 80 runs needed to get it to 720 right there.

If Jocketty has one strength, it is understanding that every position on the roster matters. While the Reds will be missing big stars with Dunn and Jr. gone, they have a much deeper roster, which is essential to winning.

And to be honest, my projections are definitely biased. There is no way to get the homer out of me, I will always expect the best from my favorite team. So, I probably would bet on yours coming true more than mine.

roby
03-06-2009, 11:46 AM
I predict 85 wins, and that is what kind of ticks me off. the Reds KNEW they needed a good right-handed bat, they HAVE the money to get that bat...it would make this team a whole lot better. Why wouldn't you go for it?

BSUFB
03-06-2009, 11:48 AM
I like the way we have been pitching. I think this club will push for 90 but fall short. 88 wins. Wild Card Team

Root Down
03-06-2009, 12:17 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see this team in the playoffs. They've finally got some great pitching and defense. Small ball wins games, and I think we're going to see more of it this year. I'm predicting lower scoring games. We'll see the Reds edge teams out 3-2 that would have previously beat them 5-3. This will turn into more wins.

mlh1981
03-06-2009, 07:56 PM
Outside of the Cubs, the NL central isn't that great. I could see us getting 82-85 wins.

$1 Hot Dog
03-07-2009, 02:32 AM
Last year we won 74. Look at our projected opening day lineup this year vs. last years.

(This) (Last)
RF - Bruce RF - Griffey
CF - Taveras CF - Patterson
LF - Dickerson LF - Dunn
3B- Encarnacion 3B - Encarnacion
SS - Gonzalez SS - Keppinger
2B - Phillips 2B - Phillips
1B - Votto 1B - Hatteburg
C - Valentin C - Hernandez

Harang Harang
Volquez Volquez
Arroyo Arroyo
Cueto Cueto
Bailey/Owings Fogg

I know that Votto basically played everyday last year and Valentin didn't catch much so that lineup for opening day last year isn't very accurate based on their season. Also Bruce came up and their were trades, etc. I think this team can easily win an extra 10 games this year. My prediction would be 87-90 wins. We won 74 with Bruce not there half the year and with no experience, Votto in his first year, Harang in the worst year of his career, Cueto just learning how to pitch, a giant question mark in the number 5 pitching spot, and Griffey just taking up space and not really producing anything. They are faster, younger, more athletic, and more experienced. I don't think the bullpen is much different except for Arthur Rhodes replacing Affeldt which I guess is close enough. I just can't see how people are saying that we will still be in the 70's win area. Especially since the NL central is getting a lot more mediocre which is who we play half the season. You do the math.

Root Down
03-08-2009, 02:39 PM
I know that Votto basically played everyday last year and Valentin didn't catch much so that lineup for opening day last year isn't very accurate based on their season. Also Bruce came up and their were trades, etc. I think this team can easily win an extra 10 games this year. My prediction would be 87-90 wins. We won 74 with Bruce not there half the year and with no experience, Votto in his first year, Harang in the worst year of his career, Cueto just learning how to pitch, a giant question mark in the number 5 pitching spot, and Griffey just taking up space and not really producing anything. They are faster, younger, more athletic, and more experienced. I don't think the bullpen is much different except for Arthur Rhodes replacing Affeldt which I guess is close enough. I just can't see how people are saying that we will still be in the 70's win area. Especially since the NL central is getting a lot more mediocre which is who we play half the season. You do the math.

Very well stated. This team has vastly improved. The rookie/new talent from last year will only get better with more experience under their belts. I would be surprised if their record doesn't show it.