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View Full Version : Dripping with irony, what if Masset and Owings make up 2/5 of the rotation.....



red-in-la
03-02-2009, 10:22 PM
Would you have expected to get 2/5ths of the rotation from the totally lame ducks of JR and Dunn? Npw, Masset and Owings may not be up to making the rotation, but an injury here and there and some rough outings by some kids....it might just happen.

RedEye
03-02-2009, 10:29 PM
Would you have expected to get 2/5ths of the rotation from the totally lame ducks of JR and Dunn? Npw, Masset and Owings may not be up to making the rotation, but an injury here and there and some rough outings by some kids....it might just happen.

If those two are 2/5 of the starting rotation, I won't be thinking about irony. I'll be thinking that the rotation is terrible.

WMR
03-02-2009, 10:31 PM
I'll be calling Vegas to place a bet on the Reds losing 100 games.

AtomicDumpling
03-03-2009, 04:48 AM
Would you have expected to get 2/5ths of the rotation from the totally lame ducks of JR and Dunn? Npw, Masset and Owings may not be up to making the rotation, but an injury here and there and some rough outings by some kids....it might just happen.

Dripping with irony? Or dripping with misery?

Given the cheapskate ownership I would not be surprised if the Reds choose to rely on the scraps gained from a salary purge.

If the Reds were too cheap to pay Dunn and they were too cheap to replace him with a major league hitter, why would it be ironic if they filled out the rotation with cheap low-caliber filler dumped by other teams? Seems totally predictable.

I like Owings and Masset as long-relievers or fill-in 5th starters, but they are not good enough to be in the regular rotation for a good team.

*BaseClogger*
03-03-2009, 05:08 AM
Listen, I like Owings because he showed a propensity to miss bats in the minors, he has a bit of a track record of success in the bigs, and his offense adds another flavor to his value. But I'm not nearly as high on Nick Masset as most round these parts. I don't understand why Masset was ever a prospect anyways. He hasn't had a good season since Rookie ball in 2001 and I haven't been impressed with the stuff he has displayed with the White Sox or Reds. He doesn't have much velocity or movement on his fastball--especially for a right-handed pitcher, he doesn't have an above-average offspeed pitch, and he doesn't have good control. He will be 27 years old this season and I would much rather see his roster spot go to a young guy who earns it this spring...

PuffyPig
03-03-2009, 08:25 AM
Would you have expected to get 2/5ths of the rotation from the totally lame ducks of JR and Dunn? Npw, Masset and Owings may not be up to making the rotation, but an injury here and there and some rough outings by some kids....it might just happen.


Gee, it's not like these guys are on the verge of being in the rotation.

Well, Owings is battling Bailey for the last spot, as was expected when the Dunn trade went down.

Masset is likley no where close to the rotation.

durl
03-03-2009, 08:45 AM
Would you have expected to get 2/5ths of the rotation from the totally lame ducks of JR and Dunn? Npw, Masset and Owings may not be up to making the rotation, but an injury here and there and some rough outings by some kids....it might just happen.

Not quite to your point, but calling a player who hit 40 HR and had 100 RBIs a "lame duck" seems a bit strong, don't you think? I'm guessing you used that term because Dunn wasn't going to be a Red this year. I guess I just wouldn't call those numbers lame.

RollyInRaleigh
03-03-2009, 08:56 AM
It was very obvious that your second take on the term, "lame duck," was what red-in-la intended, and not a swipe at Dunn or his numbers. No need to turn this into another Dunn thread.

macro
03-03-2009, 09:02 AM
Not quite to your point, but calling a player who hit 40 HR and had 100 RBIs a "lame duck" seems a bit strong, don't you think? I'm guessing you used that term because Dunn wasn't going to be a Red this year. I guess I just wouldn't call those numbers lame.

I took it to imply that their days with the Reds were numbered, rather than to make any claims about their productivity or potential.

EDIT: Oops, I started my reply and then got called away from the computer before I could finish it. Hadn't seen Randy's comment. Anyway, what he said. :)

lollipopcurve
03-03-2009, 09:06 AM
I like Owings and Masset as long-relievers or fill-in 5th starters, but they are not good enough to be in the regular rotation for a good team.

Owings made 27 starts for the 90-72 Dbacks in 2007, going 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA as a 25-year-old. Seems to me he's already proven he can start for a good team.

redsmetz
03-03-2009, 09:11 AM
Would you have expected to get 2/5ths of the rotation from the totally lame ducks of JR and Dunn? Npw, Masset and Owings may not be up to making the rotation, but an injury here and there and some rough outings by some kids....it might just happen.

Others have said this already, but this scenario is very unlikely to happen. First your premise assumes that the Reds cut Griffey and Dunn loose because of financial reasons. No question on Griffey that the club would not want him back at the option dollar amount and, frankly, both parties were ready for the relationship to be over. Getting something for Griffey was assumed and it was just the timing and the package received which was in question. I like Masset, although I don't foresee him in the rotation. I do like him a lot as our long guy and swing man. Sort of a "meat and potatoes" pitcher which every club needs (and frankly, which we haven't had for a few years). I think it's unlikely that Masset gets a steady spot in the rotation even with some injuries.

As for Owings, he's in the mix for the 5th spot along with Bailey and there are others that would get a look before both Owings and Masset would be in the rotation. Don't misunderstand, I like both acquisitions and they're both part of a plethora of pitchers we have for that spot or another should someone go down. I do like the suggestion some have made in other threads that it's not out of the realm of possibility that someone like Arroyo could be moved to improve the club and not have much of a hiccup in adding one of Owings, Bailey, Maloney, Ramierez or Masset (again, I think he's down the line) to one of the rotation spots. That's a plus we haven't seen. We could move a pitcher to make us better elsewhere and not lose out.

osuceltic
03-03-2009, 09:12 AM
Owings made 27 starts for the 90-72 Dbacks in 2007, going 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA as a 25-year-old. Seems to me he's already proven he can start for a good team.

It amazes me how quickly that gets dismissed around here.

nate
03-03-2009, 09:21 AM
Sort of a "meat and potatoes" pitcher which every club needs (and frankly, which we haven't had for a few years).

Oh I think we've had a lot of "meats" serving up "taters!"

:cool:

SMcGavin
03-03-2009, 10:22 AM
Owings made 27 starts for the 90-72 Dbacks in 2007, going 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA as a 25-year-old. Seems to me he's already proven he can start for a good team.

And Josh Fogg as a 25 year old went 12-12 with a 4.25 ERA. Fogg also proved he could start for a good team with the 2007 NL Champion Rockies.

Point is not that Owings=Fogg - rather, that evaluating a pitcher by looking at one year's worth of ERA tells you very little.

IslandRed
03-03-2009, 10:29 AM
I like Owings and Masset as long-relievers or fill-in 5th starters, but they are not good enough to be in the regular rotation for a good team.

The healthy version of Owings was more than decent enough to hold down anyone's fifth starter spot, even before factoring in the value of his bat.

Masset just strikes me as Generic Bullpen Guy, though.

jojo
03-03-2009, 10:36 AM
It amazes me how quickly that gets dismissed around here.

Owings has flyball tendencies, a career FIP of 4.80 and an xFIP of 5.00 while coming off of a shoulder injury.

There is reason for tempered optimism.

lollipopcurve
03-03-2009, 10:37 AM
Point is not that Owings=Fogg - rather, that evaluating a pitcher by looking at one year's worth of ERA tells you very little.

No, the point is that AtomicDumpling's contention that Owings is not good enough to be in the rotation of a good team is contradicted by his having performed reasonably well as a young starter for a 90-win team. This represents Owings' only full season as a starter, so while it might seem like paltry evidence, it is also all of the evidence. And his having done it at age 25 suggests he's capable of better. To assume he is something other than what the evidence shows, without allowing for the possibility he can improve, is nonsensical.

OnBaseMachine
03-03-2009, 10:38 AM
As I've stated many times, I like Micah Owings a lot. I think he's going to develop into a solid major league starter, maybe even an Aaron Harang type if he stays healthy. As for Masset, I'm just not all that enamored with him. I don't see him as anything more than a long reliever. If it comes down to him or Ramon Ramirez for that role, I prefer Ramirez.

lollipopcurve
03-03-2009, 10:39 AM
Owings has flyball tendencies, a career FIP of 4.80 and an xFIP of 5.00 while coming off of a shoulder injury.

There is reason for tempered optimism.

Certainly true. Just as there is no reason to assume he is unworthy of a starter's gig.

jojo
03-03-2009, 10:46 AM
Certainly true. Just as there is no reason to assume he is unworthy of a starter's gig.

Sure there is. The Reds have a line of applicants extending out the door and around the corner and Owings' resume is that of a below average starting pitcher with unfavorable BIP tendencies for GABP and recent shoulder problems.

If I was Owings, I'd make sure to shave and wear a tie to to the interview because this one is not a nobrainer assuming he's 100% healthy.

lollipopcurve
03-03-2009, 10:52 AM
Sure there is. The Reds have a line of applicants extending out the door and around the corner and Owings' resume is that of a below average starting pitcher with unfavorable BIP tendencies for GABP and recent shoulder problems.

If I was Owings, I'd make sure to shave and wear a tie to to the interview because this one is not a nobrainer assuming he's 100% healthy.

I'll repeat -- there is no reason to assume he is unworthy. His injury affected his statistics drastically last year. If he's healthy, he's a better pitcher than his track record, and at his age one should expect additional improvement. Judged against the track records of the other candidates for the #5 spot, Owings, if healthy, should be first in line.

OnBaseMachine
03-03-2009, 10:59 AM
Micah Owings's first 35 major league starts: 199.2 IP, 184 H, 27 HR, 66 BB/148 K, 4.20 ERA.

His minor league career: 200 IP, 191 H, 11 HR, 62 BB/176 K, 3.19 ERA.

When healthy, he's proven that he can be a good major league starter. If he remains healthy, I see no reason why he won't continue being a solid big league starter.

jojo
03-03-2009, 11:00 AM
I'll repeat -- there is no reason to assume he is unworthy. His injury affected his statistics drastically last year. If he's healthy, he's a better pitcher than his track record, and at his age one should expect additional improvement. Judged against the track records of the other candidates for the #5 spot, Owings, if healthy, should be first in line.

But his peripherals suggest that even though his ERA has bounced around, his career ERA has settled at a spot that is reflective of proper expectations.

In other words, if healthy, he's not better than his track record and in fact, his 2007 is misleading.

His track record suggests he's a back end starter who might give you 150 IP.

I don't see a reason to let him cut in line other than he might also be potentially useful off of the bench.

RollyInRaleigh
03-03-2009, 11:02 AM
A back end starter is what the Reds are looking for. Let the competition play out.

bucksfan2
03-03-2009, 11:07 AM
Sure there is. The Reds have a line of applicants extending out the door and around the corner and Owings' resume is that of a below average starting pitcher with unfavorable BIP tendencies for GABP and recent shoulder problems.

If I was Owings, I'd make sure to shave and wear a tie to to the interview because this one is not a nobrainer assuming he's 100% healthy.

Owings wears a tie while his is pitching?

Owings has a chance this spring to show how much his troubles last year were due to shoulder injuries. IMO he has a slight edge on the rest of the competition due to his previous success in the majors. To be honest I would take Owings 07 season this year out of him. It would be nice if he came out of the blocks hot again this year yet stayed healthy and continued that for a full season. He would be a very pleasant surprise for the Reds.

_Sir_Charles_
03-03-2009, 11:16 AM
A back end starter is what the Reds are looking for. Let the competition play out.

True, for THIS SEASON we're looking for a back end starter. But I think that's what Owings career is destined for...middle to back end starter. Bailey, however, has the stuff for a top of the rotation type of starter. With the greater potential for improvement...I'd lean heavily towards Homer in this battle. 2009 is just like 2008 in many respects...it's all about just improving and getting the kids more experience. That reads Homer Bailey all over it to me.

Falls City Beer
03-03-2009, 12:11 PM
The Reds have a line of applicants extending out the door and around the corner .

In short: no they don't. They have one other very long-shot candidate: Bailey.

Roy Tucker
03-03-2009, 12:23 PM
The way I look at it is Bailey is a high risk but high reward guy with a potential that ranges from competing with Volquez/Cueto to AAA washout, Owings could be a solid 5th starter (praise, but not high praise), and the rest is organizational flotsam and jetsam.

*BaseClogger*
03-03-2009, 12:28 PM
In short: no they don't. They have one other very long-shot candidate: Bailey.

Ramirez and Thompson? They both made multiple starts last year with the Reds...

jojo
03-03-2009, 12:29 PM
In short: no they don't. They have one other very long-shot candidate: Bailey.

The Reds currently have 5 candidates for the #5 job on their 40-man roster in Homer, Owings, Maloney, Thompson, and Ramirez.

RollyInRaleigh
03-03-2009, 12:33 PM
So tell us jojo, "Who is the frontrunner?"

jojo
03-03-2009, 12:44 PM
So tell us jojo, "Who is the frontrunner?"

I have no idea how this will fall out. Assuming Dusty and Co. haven't already made up their minds on how to handle guys this year, I'd say all 5 should be trying to say and do the right things this spring.

Falls City Beer
03-03-2009, 01:24 PM
The Reds currently have 5 candidates for the #5 job on their 40-man roster in Homer, Owings, Maloney, Thompson, and Ramirez.

Only two of them have a realistic shot. If Maloney is considered even for a nanosecond, something horribly wrong has happened. And Thompson is a pitcher with a history of injury as storied as Owings'.

HokieRed
03-03-2009, 01:34 PM
With at least six guys among the non-roster invitees with a chance to make the club (Bankston, Gomes, Jones, Nix, Flores, Fultz), it may get interesting as to whether Maloney can hold on to a 40 man roster spot. We're right at 40, by my count, right now.

Scrap Irony
03-03-2009, 01:45 PM
In 2007, Owings owned a 109 ERA+. Since then, he's been injured. Does he have the chance to struggle? Sure. Is it likely? Shrug.

But he's the best choice of a fifth starter in more than a decade.

bucksfan2
03-03-2009, 01:52 PM
Only two of them have a realistic shot. If Maloney is considered even for a nanosecond, something horribly wrong has happened. And Thompson is a pitcher with a history of injury as storied as Owings'.

What do you call a storied history of injuries? Owings had an injury last year. Thompson had shoulder surgery the season before the Reds traded for him. 1 injury merits a storied history of injuries?

*BaseClogger*
03-03-2009, 01:58 PM
With at least six guys among the non-roster invitees with a chance to make the club (Bankston, Gomes, Jones, Nix, Flores, Fultz), it may get interesting as to whether Maloney can hold on to a 40 man roster spot. We're right at 40, by my count, right now.

Hopper should be off if we add another outfielder to the 40 man roster IMO...

red-in-la
03-03-2009, 02:05 PM
In short: no they don't. They have one other very long-shot candidate: Bailey.

I hope Bailey is more than a long shot.....but I agree with the rest of your assessment. I am not sure about Ramierez. He seemed to be a decent last resort with what he showed last year, though his resume sounds like a latin version of Mr. Masset.

If Owings IS the 5th starter, then Bailey probably ends up the ace of the AAA staff.....at least for now.

If the Reds fail to compete this year, then I assume either Arroyo or Harang may be made available before July 31st......with Bailey replacing whoever is traded.

With Masset being the swing man already, an injury probably puts him in the rotation BEFORE anyone else is called up from AAA.

I don't see this as such a far fetched scenario......not that it would be desireable or even last more than one or two times through the rotation, but it could happen.

And other were correct, I wasn't dissing JR or Dunn......just meant that at the time of their trades, it was clear they weren't going to be Reds this year.

HokieRed
03-03-2009, 02:11 PM
On the 40 man roster question, you may be right, Baseclogger, that Hopper will be dropped if we add an outfielder. What might change that, though, is that we're only carrying 4 now, though of course we've got Hairston and Kepp. I forgot to add in Ward to my list of possibles above. I think it could get tight for Maloney if he doesn't pitch better, although it's hard to see us or anybody ever giving up on a left hander (witness Phil Dumatrait).

SMcGavin
03-03-2009, 02:14 PM
No, the point is that AtomicDumpling's contention that Owings is not good enough to be in the rotation of a good team is contradicted by his having performed reasonably well as a young starter for a 90-win team. This represents Owings' only full season as a starter, so while it might seem like paltry evidence, it is also all of the evidence. And his having done it at age 25 suggests he's capable of better. To assume he is something other than what the evidence shows, without allowing for the possibility he can improve, is nonsensical.

I agree, it is possible for a team to with with Micah Owings in the rotation. It's also possible to win with Josh Fogg in the rotation. If the rest of your players were good enough, it'd be possible to win with 2008 Corey Patterson in CF. Not sure what it tells you about the player.

Over his 250 innings in MLB Owings has shown a ERA around 5.00, roughly six and a half K/9, and a little over three walks per nine. His 07/08 xFIPs support that evalution of his ability (4.94, 5.06). So his ERA and his peripherals are in agreement. He's also a flyball guy who may get hurt by GABP and he's coming off of shoulder surgery, but for the sake of argument we can ignore that and just look at his numbers.

So I'm assuming he is exactly what the evidence shows - a #5 guy that won't kill you, a guy who if healthy will give you a decent amount of innings around a 5.00 ERA.

And to show his 07/08 differences were more luck-driven than injury-driven:
07: 6.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9
08: 7.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9

I think at this point we have a pretty good idea who Owings is.

OnBaseMachine
03-03-2009, 02:18 PM
Owings had a 4.20 ERA through his first 35 major league starts. IMO those first 35 starts, plus his strong minor league numbers are a better indicator than his last 10 starts where he was rocked while battling shoulder problems.

If healthy, I think he's going to surprise some people this year.

Falls City Beer
03-03-2009, 02:25 PM
I agree, it is possible for a team to with with Micah Owings in the rotation. It's also possible to win with Josh Fogg in the rotation. If the rest of your players were good enough, it'd be possible to win with 2008 Corey Patterson in CF. Not sure what it tells you about the player.

Over his 250 innings in MLB Owings has shown a ERA around 5.00, roughly six and a half K/9, and a little over three walks per nine. His 07/08 xFIPs support that evalution of his ability (4.94, 5.06). So his ERA and his peripherals are in agreement. He's also a flyball guy who may get hurt by GABP and he's coming off of shoulder surgery, but for the sake of argument we can ignore that and just look at his numbers.

So I'm assuming he is exactly what the evidence shows - a #5 guy that won't kill you, a guy who if healthy will give you a decent amount of innings around a 5.00 ERA.

And to show his 07/08 differences were more luck-driven than injury-driven:
07: 6.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9
08: 7.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9

I think at this point we have a pretty good idea who Owings is.

Owings' MLB numbers very closely resemble Harang's first two seasons'. Their minor league numbers aren't dissimilar.

No, Harang's not an ace, but he's a really useful guy to have around; I'm guessing Owings will be too, provided his injury isn't career threatening.

SMcGavin
03-03-2009, 02:31 PM
Owings' MLB numbers very closely resemble Harang's first two seasons'. Their minor league numbers aren't dissimilar.

No, Harang's not an ace, but he's a really useful guy to have around; I'm guessing Owings will be too, provided his injury isn't career threatening.

An improvement from Owings is definitely possible. But the transition that Harang made was pretty rare. A mediocre back-end guy is much more likely to stay that way than he is to turn into Aaron Harang.

redsmetz
03-03-2009, 02:51 PM
An improvement from Owings is definitely possible. But the transition that Harang made was pretty rare. A mediocre back-end guy is much more likely to stay that way than he is to turn into Aaron Harang.

The numbers certainly would agree with you, but I'm not a big fan in believing that everything is written in stone and that the flesh and blood human beings who actually play the game cannot deviate from what the numbers predict. Players do improve, as Harang certainly shows. Certainly history shows it doesn't happen often, but it does happen. Not everybody turns into pumpkins.

SMcGavin
03-03-2009, 03:29 PM
The numbers certainly would agree with you, but I'm not a big fan in believing that everything is written in stone and that the flesh and blood human beings who actually play the game cannot deviate from what the numbers predict. Players do improve, as Harang certainly shows. Certainly history shows it doesn't happen often, but it does happen. Not everybody turns into pumpkins.

So basically you completely agree with my statement that "an improvement from Owings is definitely possible"?

Falls City Beer
03-03-2009, 03:44 PM
Guys who post K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 in the range of Owings' first two seasons' numbers are legion throughout MLB, some of those pitchers become very good and some middling. But let's not pretend as if Owings' K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 over his first 250 MLB innings (many of which thrown while injured) tell us much of anything, and let's not even come close to pretending like they represent some kind of death sentence for his career.

redsmetz
03-03-2009, 04:54 PM
So basically you completely agree with my statement that "an improvement from Owings is definitely possible"?

You're right. I didn't give you credit on that point. I'm just reacting to the flood of negativity on the board and I shouldn't have singled you out. You clearly did say it's possible. I just get tired of all the presumptions that the Reds will absolutely going to fail and it's going to be another awful season. I just want to see some ballgames and hope the club does well enough this season.

SMcGavin
03-03-2009, 05:21 PM
You're right. I didn't give you credit on that point. I'm just reacting to the flood of negativity on the board and I shouldn't have singled you out. You clearly did say it's possible. I just get tired of all the presumptions that the Reds will absolutely going to fail and it's going to be another awful season. I just want to see some ballgames and hope the club does well enough this season.

No problem, I understand where you're coming from. I'm not trying to dump on Owings - I think he'll probably win the 5th starter job, and he'll do a much better job than any Reds fifth starter has in a long time. I just think that those expecting more than that from him are likely to be disappointed.

Hoosier Red
03-03-2009, 06:59 PM
An improvement from Owings is definitely possible. But the transition that Harang made was pretty rare. A mediocre back-end guy is much more likely to stay that way than he is to turn into Aaron Harang.

Of course top of the rotation guys in the minors are more likely to turn into back of the rotation starters than they are to become top of the rotation starters too.

There's a reason there are only 60 guys in the top 2 spots of a Major League rotation.

jojo
03-03-2009, 08:13 PM
Guys who post K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 in the range of Owings' first two seasons' numbers are legion throughout MLB, some of those pitchers become very good and some middling. But let's not pretend as if Owings' K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 over his first 250 MLB innings (many of which thrown while injured) tell us much of anything, and let's not even come close to pretending like they represent some kind of death sentence for his career.

Who's arguing death sentence?

Also, ignoring his shoulder, he's not shrouded in mystery-he's got a track record in college, the minors and now the majors.

From a scouting standpoint, his stuff is pretty ordinary in total. He's got movement but not excellent command or make 'em miss ability. Where is the room for dramatic growth by Owings? If he is a front runner for #5, it's not because his ceiling is higher than the guys he's competing with this spring.

lollipopcurve
03-03-2009, 08:34 PM
Where is the room for dramatic growth by Owings?

No one is claiming he is going to be a TOR guy.

This whole debate began with a claim that he wasn't even a #5. You seem to think he's competing on level ground with the likes of Matt Maloney and Nick Masset -- call it a #5 guy at best. Time will tell.

jojo
03-03-2009, 09:03 PM
You seem to think he's competing on level ground with the likes of Matt Maloney and Nick Masset -- call it a #5 guy at best. Time will tell.

I thought this quote pretty clearly indicated who I thought he was competing with for the #5 job:


The Reds currently have 5 candidates for the #5 job on their 40-man roster in Homer, Owings, Maloney, Thompson, and Ramirez.

And I thought these quotes pretty clearly indicated why I thought he shouldn't necessarily be the front runner:


Owings has flyball tendencies, a career FIP of 4.80 and an xFIP of 5.00 while coming off of a shoulder injury.

There is reason for tempered optimism.


But his peripherals suggest that even though his ERA has bounced around, his career ERA has settled at a spot that is reflective of proper expectations.

In other words, if healthy, he's not better than his track record and in fact, his 2007 is misleading.

His track record suggests he's a back end starter who might give you 150 IP.

I don't see a reason to let him cut in line other than he might also be potentially useful off of the bench.

Could he be the Reds 5th starter this season? Of course he could but so could Homer, Thompson, Ramirez, and even Maloney.

fearofpopvol1
03-03-2009, 09:22 PM
Who's arguing death sentence?

Also, ignoring his shoulder, he's not shrouded in mystery-he's got a track record in college, the minors and now the majors.

From a scouting standpoint, his stuff is pretty ordinary in total. He's got movement but not excellent command or make 'em miss ability. Where is the room for dramatic growth by Owings? If he is a front runner for #5, it's not because his ceiling is higher than the guys he's competing with this spring.

I think FCB made a good previous point in how similar Owings' numbers were to Harrang's. Nobody expected Harrang to be as good as he's been (based on his peripherals) and it took Harrang until his later years to really prove his worth. Why can't Owings follow a similar path (assuming he's healthy--which I realize is a big assumption)? I'm by no means claiming that Owings = Harrang, but I think you're writing off his potential a little early.

jojo
03-03-2009, 09:52 PM
I think FCB made a good previous point in how similar Owings' numbers were to Harrang's. Nobody expected Harrang to be as good as he's been (based on his peripherals) and it took Harrang until his later years to really prove his worth. Why can't Owings follow a similar path (assuming he's healthy--which I realize is a big assumption)? I'm by no means claiming that Owings = Harrang, but I think you're writing off his potential a little early.

Not planning for it to happen isn't the same thing as saying it's impossible.

This issue is who will be the the number 5 guy this year. Should Owings have an inside track because Harang blossomed? If the decision is colored by ceiling and likelihood of hitting it, than Owings needs to get behind Homer.

Probably the reality is as FCB said earlier- assuming everyone is healthy, it's likely between Homer and Owings.

Owings would probably be behind Thompson stuff-wise but Thompson has a long road to hoe convincing people he can log innings with consistent velocity. Ramirez is a nobody (both in name and stature...ba dum bump) that will basically need to drive a tank through the door to get people to really believe his numbers can translate as a starter, and Maloney is a the poster boy for beating up lower levels with stuff that usually doesn't translate. But he's a lefty so he's got a shot in the Reds plans.

Bailey has an option that a should probably be best used at Louisville because he is still more valuable than Owings and should be treated like it IMHO.

Owens can hit for a pitcher and could be used a pinch hitter if needed so he has flexibility.

If it means Homer logs innings in Louisville until he's bored to tears making them sissy boys down there cry, I'm all for announcing Owings as the #5 tonight (assuming he's healthy).