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View Full Version : Dunn Clutch in 08 Says Bill James



TheNext44
03-03-2009, 04:24 AM
This is from the ORG, thanks to mbgrayson


Reading the latest article by Bill James on clutch hitting (subscription required). Here is what he had to say about our good friend Adam Dunn:

Quote:
Another guy who had a really good year in the clutch is a player who had a similar winter, Adam Dunn. Dunn had just 59 clutch at bats and hit just .288 in clutch situations—but 14 of 17 clutch hits were for extra bases, including a major-league leading 9 bombs. Think about it this way: The Atlanta Braves didn’t have anyone on their team with more than one clutch homer, and the team total was 5. Adam Dunn had 9. That’s a bunch.

The winner of the Bill James clutch hitting award for 2008 was Manny Ramirez...

This ought to be a fun one to discuss.

A few quick, interesting observations.

1) I think most posters who don't think clutch hitting exists, are also big Dunn supporters and most who think it does, are not. I am a rare Saber fan who thinks that clutch exists, and who is a big fan of Dunn, so no problem for me. Can't wait to see people from both sides try to balance this out.

2) IIRC, James last year said that Dunn was not very clutch in 07. Again, adds to the debate.

thatcoolguy_22
03-03-2009, 06:23 AM
This is from the ORG, thanks to mbgrayson



This ought to be a fun one to discuss.

A few quick, interesting observations.

1) I think most posters who don't think clutch hitting exists, are also big Dunn supporters and most who think it does, are not. I am a rare Saber fan who thinks that clutch exists, and who is a big fan of Dunn, so no problem for me. Can't wait to see people from both sides try to balance this out.

2) IIRC, James last year said that Dunn was not very clutch in 07. Again, adds to the debate.


We have debated the existence of clutch on this board more times than I care to remember. That said my stance is still the same from the first time I toed the line of its existence... The sample sizes are so small and random that it is nearly impossible to come up with any sort of conclusive data. I think its proven in the Adam Dunn quote above.

In 2007 he was not very clutch yet had a .940 OPS. In 2008 he has a .898 OPS with 651 PA. Out of those 651 he has 59 Clutch ABs. I do not know where to find his clutch ABs in 2007 but I would guess it would be somewhat similar to 2008.

Obviously Dunn did not have an epiphany in the offseason on how to hit a baseball and his yearly numbers went down. So what caused the increase in his clutch ability? Is it a random occurence or a more focused approach at the plate. If its the latter then why not show the same amount of focus in every AB? I think judging by year to year the fluxuations in clutchness is varied on a random level with inputs on situations ranging anywhere from pitching matchup to whether or not he had to track down more than a typical amount of flyballs in LF.

In short I do not know if it exists at all.

ChatterRed
03-03-2009, 09:07 AM
Dunn sucks period.

Let's move on. :p:

Eric_the_Red
03-03-2009, 09:40 AM
How can you be clutch in 2008 but not in 2007, unless "clutch" is nothing more than luck and opportunity? And if it is just luck and opportunity, it's a useless label.

DTCromer
03-03-2009, 10:18 AM
He's "clutch" but he still can't touch 3rd base.

So I guess he's worth 10 million a year.

mroby85
03-03-2009, 11:06 AM
How can you be clutch in 2008 but not in 2007, unless "clutch" is nothing more than luck and opportunity? And if it is just luck and opportunity, it's a useless label.

Is it luck or opportunity to hit 330 then for 9 years, if you hit 240 one year?

Eric_the_Red
03-03-2009, 12:17 PM
Is it luck or opportunity to hit 330 then for 9 years, if you hit 240 one year?


To some degree, yes. But that example uses a much larger sample size, which negates much of the luck involved.

Maybe it's the term "clutch" that I don't like. It alludes to a frame of mind, or performance under stress. That is something that I don't think can be quantified (as evidenced by Dunn's wide swing from 2007 to 2008).

swaisuc
03-03-2009, 12:44 PM
I have always believed that clutch is a fair way to judge what has happened, but a horrible way to judge what will happen. In this case, Dunn had more big hits/homers in 2008 than most guys and certainly more than he had in 2007. Thats not an opinion or a phantom stat. If you watched the games, you already knew that without Bill James telling you so.

macro
03-03-2009, 12:50 PM
Any thread with Dunn as its subject is likely to draw comments like some we've seen in this thread already. If anyone would like to continue the discussion of "clutch" while leaving Dunn out of it, feel free to add to this thread...

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64873