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Newman4
03-04-2009, 04:51 PM
Homer Bailey and Micah Owings both continue to do well throughout Spring Training. Would you consider trading Arroyo or even Harang for a package centered around a Leftfielder that could hit clean up?

reds1869
03-04-2009, 05:27 PM
That depends on the LF. In most cases I would say no...long term track record means more to me than a good spring.

Eric_the_Red
03-04-2009, 05:38 PM
No....you can never have too much pitching.

Nasty_Boy
03-04-2009, 05:58 PM
No, but I wouldn't mind moving Arroyo for a SS. I think that Votto (or Frazier if Alonso doesn't pan out) will be in LF before too long. You also have to look at a guy like Franscisco that mind end up in LF if Edwin lives up to the potential. I think SS is the biggest question mark for now and the future, that's the hole I would try and fill by trading Arroyo. Not to mention I think we are a least a year away from serious contention.

I would also explore moving BP and his large contract, if he continues to show signs of regression.

eastkyred
03-04-2009, 06:19 PM
No way. 6 starters will end up being necessary. If they both get to pitch enough in the big leagues, and pitch well, I would consider it by the all-star break.

Handofdeath
03-04-2009, 06:36 PM
You have to keep both. You can use an extra starter as a spot starter or for long relief.

Orodle
03-04-2009, 06:40 PM
Dont ever trade pitching.........I think thats obvious after watching the Reds forever. We finally have some ....why trade it away?

xavr1
03-04-2009, 07:12 PM
No way. Even if they both pitch brilliantly throughout ST there is no guarantee that either will continue their success into the season. Plus, I dont imagine there is really hot market out there for teams looking for Arroyo/Harang at this point. Surely no one would give up a whole lot more than what we already have.

And I agree--you can NEVER have too much pitching.

redsfandan
03-04-2009, 07:13 PM
No, but I wouldn't mind moving Arroyo for a SS. I think that Votto (or Frazier if Alonso doesn't pan out) will be in LF before too long. You also have to look at a guy like Franscisco that mind end up in LF if Edwin lives up to the potential. I think SS is the biggest question mark for now and the future, that's the hole I would try and fill by trading Arroyo. Not to mention I think we are a least a year away from serious contention...

x2 Finding our next ss is the #1 priority this year. If we can find one than that will make playoffs in 2010 a more realistic possibility.

Maybe at the all-star break. But we can't just jump the gun off of a couple weeks of results in spring training. I still think Bailey will benefit from a little more time in AAA. If two of: Owings, Bailey, Thompson, Ramirez are pitching well over the next three months than I'd make Arroyo available in a deal in june/july. Teams that have a shot at the playoffs tend to be a little more willing to deal good prospects.

FlightRick
03-04-2009, 07:44 PM
I third the notion that if we believe ourselves to be over-loaded with SP, then Arroyo should be the one we look to flip, and it would ideally be for an everyday SS.

But I can't help finding myself a little bit sad that the Yankees managed to get a deal done with Pettite to shore up their rotation, because if they came to us and offered Swisher for Arroyo (straight up, or close to it), I'd jump on it. Jump, I says. Prying Dukes away from DC would be cool, too, but with the salary inequity there, I have a feeling it'd take Arroyo+ (or require us taking on a bad contract along with Dukes).

But more than likely, I'm sure this discussio will be moot by June 1. Injuries have a way of happening, and what looks promising after 5 IP of spring training tends not to hold up once the games count. [And let's not forget that Volquez/Cueto aren't exactly proven commodities, yet.] Right now, I actually like the idea of being well-stocked enough to weather that kind of storm, without having to resort to counting on Ramirez or Thompson to be much more than an emergency spot-starting call-up every now and again.


Rick

Newman4
03-04-2009, 11:19 PM
I third the notion that if we believe ourselves to be over-loaded with SP, then Arroyo should be the one we look to flip, and it would ideally be for an everyday SS.

But I can't help finding myself a little bit sad that the Yankees managed to get a deal done with Pettite to shore up their rotation, because if they came to us and offered Swisher for Arroyo (straight up, or close to it), I'd jump on it. Jump, I says. Prying Dukes away from DC would be cool, too, but with the salary inequity there, I have a feeling it'd take Arroyo+ (or require us taking on a bad contract along with Dukes).

But more than likely, I'm sure this discussio will be moot by June 1. Injuries have a way of happening, and what looks promising after 5 IP of spring training tends not to hold up once the games count. [And let's not forget that Volquez/Cueto aren't exactly proven commodities, yet.] Right now, I actually like the idea of being well-stocked enough to weather that kind of storm, without having to resort to counting on Ramirez or Thompson to be much more than an emergency spot-starting call-up every now and again.


Rick

I agree that trading for a SS would be a good option as well if we feel like we have a surplus. I like the Arroyo for Swisher deal as well. Anyone else on agree?

Eric_the_Red
03-04-2009, 11:35 PM
Again, a bad idea to trade away pitching. But IF Arroyo were traded, you honestly think the team would receive a starting SS worth anything in return?!

C'mon, use your heads. Don't be like those callers to the post-game show last year suggesting the team trade Dave Ross, Ryan Freel and Gary Majewski for Carlos Beltran, or some similar nonsense.

JBChance
03-05-2009, 12:18 AM
I agree that trading for a SS would be a good option as well if we feel like we have a surplus. I like the Arroyo for Swisher deal as well. Anyone else on agree?


Take a wait and see on the surplus, but if they do hold up to June, than I like either the SS or big bat. Swisher could be, but he needs to bounce back this spring first.


Again, a bad idea to trade away pitching. But IF Arroyo were traded, you honestly think the team would receive a starting SS worth anything in return?!

If Arroyo is pitching adequately, then a decent SS isn't, IMO, out of line. There will be teams looking for average, innings-eater pitching come June. Guaranteed.

But I'm with you that I'm dubious of us actually having the "surplus".

Nasty_Boy
03-05-2009, 12:57 AM
But I'm with you that I'm dubious of us actually having the "surplus".

As am I... I thought we were speaking in hypotheticals. ;)

But at any point during the season especially trade deadline time that you can move that money, if you are not in contention, then you move it... especially if a SS can be had in return.

As for Swisher, I absolutely love him as a player and I think he and the Reds would benefit greatly by coming together. But Arroyo is a top trade chip and I would rather him fill a bigger need. In the past I would have been all about trading for the proven veteran player, but my confidence in the Reds farm system and player development has grown to the point that I'm content to turn it over to the prospects. There is (young) top level projected talent to be found at every position, except SS, between the rookies and the prospects. Even though the jury is still out on guys like Valaika (range, glove) and Cozart (bat) over whether they can be major league regulars. Honestly every big contract would be available for trade if it were up to me. You're gonna need that money when Jay, Joey, Volquie, and Cueto hit their arbitration/free agent years.

Captain Hook
03-05-2009, 01:39 AM
I would keep all of our pitchers as long as we are in contention for the play offs.

Let me ask you guys this.

How bad would we all feel if the Reds traded Arroyo now for a ok SS(probably the best we could get for him at this point).Then come July we are contending but have some injuries in the rotation(happens to all most all teams at some point during a long season).Then we would end up having to trade some of our young talent that we are so excited about for somebody probably not even as good as Arroyo.

IMO we take our chances with what we have at SS and keep all of our pitching.

Jerome
03-05-2009, 03:07 AM
What if Homer and Micah both did well throughout Spring Training, so we got super horny for them and traded away an established veteran, and then Homer and Micah turned back into the pitchers they've been so far in their careers. That would suck. We should probably wait to trade anyone until Homer and Micah can put together a good full season each.

And you could get way more for Arroyo than Nick Swisher. Seriously? Aim high fellas.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

Nasty_Boy
03-05-2009, 11:28 AM
Like I said, I'm not moving Arroyo unless I'm getting a ready to go SS. The odds of that happening before the All-Star break is slim and none. But truthfully we don't have a chance at winning the division this season, and we need the Phills or Mets to fall on their face to win the wild-card. We are going to need some major breaks for either to happen. I think 2010 is the year we could cause more trouble...

redsfandan
03-05-2009, 01:18 PM
If Arroyo is dealt in june/july I'd prefer a ss or a good ss prospect but I'd also be ok if it was a deal like the Dunn trade. A decent starting pitcher candidate and a pitching prospect who still has alot of upside but has had his stock fall to an injury. I know which pitching prospect would fit and that I'd love to have but I really doubt it would work for Arroyo.

Eric_the_Red
03-05-2009, 01:20 PM
I'd love for some of the people saying to trade Arroyo for a SS to actually throw out some SS names that you think the team could get in return. I would wager it would be a humorous list. ("With Santana hurt, you know the Mets will need pitching. We should package Arroyo and Keppinger for Reyes.") :rolleyes:

redsfandan
03-05-2009, 01:57 PM
Here are a couple prospects that could work:

Reid Brignac TB
Jason Donald Phi

Tampa has Bartlett at ss now and Beckham is their future ss so Brignac could be expendable but they probably wouldn't want Arroyo for two reasons: 1) his contract and 2) they have alot of pitching depth.

Philly would be more likely to need a pitcher to help them in the playoff chase and they already have Rollins. I'd take Donald and a pitching prospect (whose stock has fallen but could still pan out) for Arroyo. Than we could use the money saved to sign Volquez to a LTC (he enters his arbitration years before Joey, Jay or Johnny)

bounty37h
03-05-2009, 02:22 PM
I third the notion that if we believe ourselves to be over-loaded with SP, then Arroyo should be the one we look to flip, and it would ideally be for an everyday SS.

But I can't help finding myself a little bit sad that the Yankees managed to get a deal done with Pettite to shore up their rotation, because if they came to us and offered Swisher for Arroyo (straight up, or close to it), I'd jump on it. Jump, I says. Prying Dukes away from DC would be cool, too, but with the salary inequity there, I have a feeling it'd take Arroyo+ (or require us taking on a bad contract along with Dukes).

But more than likely, I'm sure this discussio will be moot by June 1. Injuries have a way of happening, and what looks promising after 5 IP of spring training tends not to hold up once the games count. [And let's not forget that Volquez/Cueto aren't exactly proven commodities, yet.] Right now, I actually like the idea of being well-stocked enough to weather that kind of storm, without having to resort to counting on Ramirez or Thompson to be much more than an emergency spot-starting call-up every now and again.


Rick

ANY contract with dukes is a bad contract in itself, no way I want that guy in Cincy!

bounty37h
03-05-2009, 02:32 PM
I would certainly entertain offers, think you always need to with an open mind, but doubt they would get anything good enough in return at this point to make it worth the risk on our end. I think a lot too would hinge on how the other contenders for that 5'th spot do as well, so if there was an injury if the trade was made there are still options.

ian_madden
03-05-2009, 02:37 PM
I would rather move a younger gun than the experienced Arroyo. I think that we could get more for Owings, or Bailey, at mid season, if they are have a breakout yr, (ala Volquez last yr.) But I don't want to move any of our pitchers right now, or mid season. I like the abundance of talent on the mound that we have right now. So we have 6 starters on opening day roster, that fills our long relief need. I'm excited, were going to be better than we were last yr.

But we had to move a pitcher for a position player, I want a solid 3rd baseman. EE can't be worse than Dunn in lf. If we upgrade at 3rd, then we are way better defensively already.

redsfandan
03-05-2009, 06:15 PM
I would rather move a younger gun than the experienced Arroyo. I think that we could get more for Owings, or Bailey, at mid season, if they are have a breakout yr, (ala Volquez last yr.) But I don't want to move any of our pitchers right now, or mid season. I like the abundance of talent on the mound that we have right now. So we have 6 starters on opening day roster, that fills our long relief need. I'm excited, were going to be better than we were last yr.
True a young, cheap, talented pitcher may net more but that's what you want to hold onto. We can't keep every big contract. You want the young, cheap, talented pitching prospects to replace them. I agree that any trade shouldn't happen until mid-season. At that point any playoff team that needs a pitcher will probably prefer a veteran anyway.



But we had to move a pitcher for a position player, I want a solid 3rd baseman. EE can't be worse than Dunn in lf. If we upgrade at 3rd, then we are way better defensively already.

We have plenty of options for 3rd on the farm (Frazier, Soto, Francisco). SS is a MUCH bigger question mark.

Kingspoint
03-05-2009, 07:03 PM
I wouldn't consider trading any pitching. We cannot have enough of it. It needs to be the team's strength. When one pitcher becomes ineffective, as surely several will, the replacements need to be on board to step right in and produce.

stock
03-05-2009, 08:33 PM
If the Reds are out of it come July and the Giants are in the thick of the race I would trade EdE and Arroyo for Buster Posey.

Nasty_Boy
03-06-2009, 02:26 AM
And the Giants would laugh themselves to death.

redsfandan
03-06-2009, 02:50 AM
And the Giants would laugh themselves to death.


I'm not so sure they would. I mean it's not like Posey is Weiters and, while you can say what you want about them, Arroyo & EE are both proven MLB players. We may end up with a catcher though with the first pick in the june draft so that could be overkill.

Ghosts of 1990
03-06-2009, 03:00 AM
IF this happens you put Owings in the pen and Bailey in the starting rotation and you go from there. Bailey gets the nod based on potential and what we have invested in him. He has a much higher ceiling then Owings. If Bailey fails or anyone else fails you can put Owings in the rotation. I dont trade Arroyo because he is proven and Owings/Bailey are not yet.

redsfandan
03-06-2009, 03:07 AM
IF this happens you put Owings in the pen and Bailey in the starting rotation and you go from there. Bailey gets the nod based on potential and what we have invested in him. He has a much higher ceiling then Owings. If Bailey fails or anyone else fails you can put Owings in the rotation. I dont trade Arroyo because he is proven and Owings/Bailey are not yet.

Except Owings had a very good rookie year in '07. (8-8, 152.7 ip, 106 k's, 4.30 ea, 1.284 whip) He doesn't have the upside of Bailey but Bailey is the only one of the two that hasn't been able to produce in the majors yet.

flash
03-06-2009, 09:14 AM
I definitely would talk to the Giants about Sanchez for Owings or Bailey. The Reds could also offer Keppinger (or Vailaka, Janish) and ask for Adrianza, a 20 year old AAA SS. I admit I know little about him, but if he is already at AAA at 20 he must be pretty good.

I would trade pitching for pitching especially a left-handed starter like Sanchez. And the Giaants need a right-handed starter. (Unbelievable)

Nasty_Boy
03-06-2009, 10:06 AM
Keppinger has little or no value outside of Cincinnati. Janish is a late inning defensive replacement at best, and Valaika may be about equal to Adrianza.

As for Sanchez, the Reds would have to give up a position player or a starting pitcher plus a prospect. Sanchez value has went way up this offseaon, and there is no way the Giants trade him for just Owings or Bailey.

On the Posey front, I don't see any reason the Giants would move him for Arroyo and Edwin... If Posey was on the table they would be able to get more than that from another club, if nothing else because catching is so scarce. Not to mention they would be taking on 2 good size contracts.

flash
03-06-2009, 03:15 PM
I agree. I think the Giants probably wanted EE and Bailey for him earlier when the trade talks were swirling.

I think the Giants want to move Sandoval to first base and have someone take over at third. Keppinger's value may not be much away from Cincinnati, but I think he is probably a better balplayer than Ishikawa. It might take another player to get sanchez away from the Giants. But who can the Reds offer. Also would Adrianza still be availible.