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big boy
03-05-2009, 10:09 AM
I don't believe in that on-base percentage (stuff). That's overrated to me.

- Brandon Phillips

How can he believe this? OBP is everything.

Eric_the_Red
03-05-2009, 10:26 AM
If he can hit in the neighborhood of .280 with 20-25 HR, 25-30 SB, 90-100 R & RBI, all while playing Gold Glove caliber defense at second, then I don't care what he thinks about one stat category. Let the GMs worry about guys with good OBP, regardless of what the player thinks about it.

And what is the context of the quote? Maybe he thinks W and L are more important stats.

Also, I wonder if the pre-SABR era players even knew what their OBP was? I want a player to try to get on base however he can, preferably with a hit, but not to worry about how many times he reached, if that makes sense.

DTCromer
03-05-2009, 11:20 AM
Well, there are plenty of people who wanted Dunn back because of his Slug% even though he would love to go from 2nd to home.

BLEEDS
03-05-2009, 12:00 PM
That's why DUHsty the Toothpick loves him, because he doesn't believe in it either.

Unfortunately, not believing in it, doesn't make it unreal.

And for that, we will continue to be the suck on offense.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

bounty37h
03-05-2009, 12:08 PM
he isn't even close to the only player, or coach, who feels that way. I got to sit next to one of the USA coaches last summer during a game when he was charting pitches, and we had great baseball conversation going, until I mentioned OBP or some sort of baseball stat, and he looked at me, rolled his eyes, and said "oh, your one of those people". I think a lot of people actually playing the game dont care about it at all to be honest-its for the stat heads that cant play, and the gm to make decisons on who to get for their team, as well as coaches to decide who to play, but I really dont think many actual players use or care about them. To be honest, I dont care about em either, takes the fun out of the game IMO, but I am not undervaluing them either.

Jerome
03-05-2009, 12:32 PM
Sweet Jesus Brandon! OBP is the difference between you and Joe Morgan (career .392 OBP)! OBP might be the decider of you getting into the Hall someday, MAYBE, okay DOUBTEDLY. In the 1975 banner year, Joe had a .466 OBP. That makes things just a tad easier for a team to win.

Do you know where he was quoted saying that? I'd like to use it for my blog. Pretty unfortunate quote if in the assumed context.

To say that OBP is for the stathead and doesn't reflect the skill/talent of a player is jawdropping.


http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

big boy
03-05-2009, 12:35 PM
"oh, your one of those people". I think a lot of people actually playing the game dont care about it at all to be honest-its for the stat heads that cant play, and the gm to make decisons on who to get for their team, as well as coaches to decide who to play, but I really dont think many actual players use or care about them. To be honest, I dont care about em either, takes the fun out of the game IMO, but I am not undervaluing them either.

OBP is not a modern statistic for stat heads, though. It isn't about taking walks, either. It is the main thing in baseball which is how many times a batter gets on base and, on the other hand, how many times he is making outs. This strikes me as what the game is all about.

big boy
03-05-2009, 12:36 PM
Do you know where he was quoted saying that? I'd like to use it for my blog. Pretty unfortunate quote.


http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com



http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20090305/SPT04/903050373/-1/NLETTER02?source=nletter-sports

Rusty the Red
03-05-2009, 12:37 PM
I could care less about the contrived stats. Stats can be deceiving and those who overvalue stats are more fans of math than baseball. Wins - important. How you win - not so important. Just look at the Steelers this year - nothing flashy, but they won. Limited running game and a passing attack that was hit and miss, but solid defense and much determination. There were better statistical teams, but the guys in black and gold won the big game again.

Nasty_Boy
03-05-2009, 12:58 PM
This is a stat that has been around forever. It is not about walks, it's about walks and hits... its a measure of the amount of outs a player makes. The thing is to score runs you must get on base, it doesn't matter if the OBP is heavily weighted towards batting average or walks, you just have to get on base.

There was a quote in the ORG, Johnny Footstool I believe

"Brandon doesn't have to believe in OBP, he just has to achieve it."

He needs to be more selective and less aggressive. He needs to hit strikes and then he can raise his batting average and collect more hits. He is too easily pitched to.

CySeymour
03-05-2009, 01:10 PM
This is a stat that has been around forever. It is not about walks, it's about walks and hits... its a measure of the amount of outs a player makes. The thing is to score runs you must get on base, it doesn't matter if the OBP is heavily weighted towards batting average or walks, you just have to get on base.

There was a quote in the ORG, Johnny Footstool I believe

"Brandon doesn't have to believe in OBP, he just has to achieve it."

He needs to be more selective and less aggressive. He needs to hit strikes and then he can raise his batting average and collect more hits. He is too easily pitched to.


I think this is the crux of it all. Phillips will never be a .370 obp player. He just is never going to be patient enough at the plate. But like you said, if he gets his average up and keeps his power, he has value, especially with his defense.

If you think about it, his defense is the differense between him and Edwin.

Jerome
03-05-2009, 01:10 PM
I could care less about the contrived stats. Stats can be deceiving and those who overvalue stats are more fans of math than baseball. Wins - important. How you win - not so important. Just look at the Steelers this year - nothing flashy, but they won. Limited running game and a passing attack that was hit and miss, but solid defense and much determination. There were better statistical teams, but the guys in black and gold won the big game again.

I only checked back for the last 5 NL years, but the team with the highest on base average finished either 1 or 2 in runs scored, which is a fairly good way to win, you know, scoring runs. The list probably goes back forever. I can't speak for the pitching staffs of these teams (the other half of winning), but OBP and runs per game are essentially cause and effect. There is nothing contrived about it, if that's what you're saying. I think that's what you're saying.

And I'm not sure why you related your point to football, and the team we do not speak of. Can you relate it to baseball?

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

Eric_the_Red
03-05-2009, 01:18 PM
The problem is that the focus on stats usually skew toward stats on offense. I think it is easy to forget a great defensive play, diving in the hole to snag a line drive that saves a run for example, is the same as a solo HR or knocking in a run with a basehit.

I'd rather have a 2B that plays great defense with a .335 OBP, than a slug in the field with a .380 OBP. Runs are runs, whether you are scoring them or preventing them.

Would a higher OBP from Phillips be good? Sure. But I'm not willing to crucify the man just because he isn't primarily focused on one stat.

redsfandan
03-05-2009, 01:29 PM
Sweet Jesus Brandon! OBP is the difference between you and Joe Morgan (career .392 OBP)! OBP might be the decider of you getting into the Hall someday, MAYBE, okay DOUBTEDLY. In the 1975 banner year, Joe had a .466 OBP. That makes things just a tad easier for a team to win...


Emin3mShady07: Joe Morgan Actually Said this: Well the run differential means nothing. It is like OPS, it mean nothing in the grander scheme of things. (...)

Jerome
03-05-2009, 01:45 PM
Would a higher OBP from Phillips be good? Sure. But I'm not willing to crucify the man just because he isn't primarily focused on one stat.

I agree that Brandon has other positives that make him a valuable asset (that's not my argument), but his quote that he doesn't believe in "that OBP stuff" is slightly assonine. Sounds like something a good player with a low OBP would say. I know OBP isn't a sexy stat. Players don't brag about it in the clubhouse after the game, "yeah dude, I walked twice and singled, I'm amazing," but the best hitters have an understanding of the strikezone and realize how important it is to master it. Brandon doesn't seem to care about this, which is unfortunate considering he has the hitting tools in place. If he could master the zone, the sky is the limit. Right now, we can see his ceiling. You can be aggressive at the plate and not be a hacker.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

bounty37h
03-05-2009, 02:38 PM
Sweet Jesus Brandon! OBP is the difference between you and Joe Morgan (career .392 OBP)! OBP might be the decider of you getting into the Hall someday, MAYBE, okay DOUBTEDLY. In the 1975 banner year, Joe had a .466 OBP. That makes things just a tad easier for a team to win.

Do you know where he was quoted saying that? I'd like to use it for my blog. Pretty unfortunate quote if in the assumed context.

To say that OBP is for the stathead and doesn't reflect the skill/talent of a player is jawdropping.


http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

He didn't say he doesnt believe in what makes the stat-the hitting itself-he just doesn't care about keeping up with the stat. Again, I really bet you would find a ton of players that dont give a crap about it, as long as they get their hits that make up that stats so the rest of the people worry about it. Where did you see anyone say that OBP doesnt reflect the skill/talent level, that wasnt at all what I was saying.

bounty37h
03-05-2009, 02:48 PM
This is a stat that has been around forever. It is not about walks, it's about walks and hits... its a measure of the amount of outs a player makes. The thing is to score runs you must get on base, it doesn't matter if the OBP is heavily weighted towards batting average or walks, you just have to get on base.

There was a quote in the ORG, Johnny Footstool I believe

"Brandon doesn't have to believe in OBP, he just has to achieve it."

He needs to be more selective and less aggressive. He needs to hit strikes and then he can raise his batting average and collect more hits. He is too easily pitched to.

Thanks Nasty, that sums up what I was trying to say I think most players feel about the stats, they dont care about "them", they just care about producing what turns into stats through the results. I know, same difference, but it isnt. I helped coach a HS team last year that won the state championship, many players signed with college teams, and I bet you only 3 or 4 players on the team could even tell you what OBP is, but they could achieve it on the field-!!!

bounty37h
03-05-2009, 02:50 PM
OBP is not a modern statistic for stat heads, though. It isn't about taking walks, either. It is the main thing in baseball which is how many times a batter gets on base and, on the other hand, how many times he is making outs. This strikes me as what the game is all about.

Right, and thats what I am saying, it is about getting on base vs making outs, and that is what BP is saying in my mind, he jsut wants to play the game and do what he can, let others do the math.

Jerome
03-05-2009, 02:56 PM
Right, and thats what I am saying, it is about getting on base vs making outs, and that is what BP is saying in my mind, he jsut wants to play the game and do what he can, let others do the math.

I guess we just have different interpretations of what BP is saying.:confused:

Handofdeath
03-05-2009, 03:05 PM
Right, and thats what I am saying, it is about getting on base vs making outs, and that is what BP is saying in my mind, he jsut wants to play the game and do what he can, let others do the math.

I think everyone has been making good points. I too, think that OBP is important but it must be seen in the proper context. It is only a part of the whole grand scheme of things. The hard truth is this, OBP does not necessarily translate to runs scored and runs scored do not necessarily translate to wins. I'll use the 2008 NL playoff teams as an example.

Cubs 1st in runs scored 1st in OBP
Brewers 7th in runs scored 10th in OBP
Dodgers 13th in runs scored 6th in OBP
Phillies T2nd in runs scored 7th in OBP

TheNext44
03-05-2009, 03:50 PM
Pete Rose hated walks. He wanted to hit. He would get mad at pitchers who walked him. And I doubt he ever knew what his OBP was, even though it was easily available. You don't have to like OBP to have a good one.

Brandon should know better, but it's really hard to hold that against him. He doesn't get paid to understand his stats, just to put them up.

That said, this quote does explain why he swings at so many bad pitches, and if he did ever take the time to understand the importance of OBP, then he probably would be a much better and more valuable hitter.

bounty37h
03-05-2009, 04:17 PM
Pete Rose hated walks. He wanted to hit. He would get mad at pitchers who walked him. And I doubt he ever knew what his OBP was, even though it was easily available. You don't have to like OBP to have a good one.

Brandon should know better, but it's really hard to hold that against him. He doesn't get paid to understand his stats, just to put them up.

That said, this quote does explain why he swings at so many bad pitches, and if he did ever take the time to understand the importance of OBP, then he probably would be a much better and more valuable hitter.

Great summary for both sides of this one, Next44, thanks!

Rusty the Red
03-05-2009, 05:38 PM
I only checked back for the last 5 NL years, but the team with the highest on base average finished either 1 or 2 in runs scored, which is a fairly good way to win, you know, scoring runs. The list probably goes back forever. I can't speak for the pitching staffs of these teams (the other half of winning), but OBP and runs per game are essentially cause and effect. There is nothing contrived about it, if that's what you're saying. I think that's what you're saying.

And I'm not sure why you related your point to football, and the team we do not speak of. Can you relate it to baseball?

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

I went to the Steelers because they are a great example of a team that wins but may not look so great on the stat sheet.

Here is the bottom line, in order to win in baseball you have to score at least one more run than the other team. It doesn't matter if you win 10-1 or 1-0.

How many times do you look at a box score and see that the winning team had less hits? It happens all the time. It just matters that you score more than the other guy.

OBP, era and WHIP are fun to think about, but only after the game. I know that most players at the majors level don't think about such things. After the season they may look back, but when they are playing they are trying to do what they can to win that day, that at bat, that pitch. Stats are not the end all of baseball, thankfully.

redsfandan
03-05-2009, 05:54 PM
... I know OBP isn't a sexy stat. Players don't brag about it in the clubhouse after the game, "yeah dude, I walked twice and singled, I'm amazing," but the best hitters have an understanding of the strikezone and realize how important it is to master it. ...

I just like that line. :lol: :p:

Kingspoint
03-05-2009, 07:04 PM
How can he believe this? OBP is everything.


Of course it's over-rated to him. As a 5-tool player, it's the weakest area of his game.

That said, give me 8 Brandon Phillips' every year and you win the World Series every year, even with horrible pitching.

Natty Redlocks
03-05-2009, 11:24 PM
I went to the Steelers because they are a great example of a team that wins but may not look so great on the stat sheet.

Here is the bottom line, in order to win in baseball you have to score at least one more run than the other team. It doesn't matter if you win 10-1 or 1-0.

How many times do you look at a box score and see that the winning team had less hits? It happens all the time. It just matters that you score more than the other guy.

OBP, era and WHIP are fun to think about, but only after the game. I know that most players at the majors level don't think about such things. After the season they may look back, but when they are playing they are trying to do what they can to win that day, that at bat, that pitch. Stats are not the end all of baseball, thankfully.

I don't think anyone is saying any one stat is more important than the game itself. OBP is such a hot button topic because of what it usually reflects -- teams with high OBP also tend to make pitchers work harder, they don't have one or two guys who are always expected to carry the offense, and they don't get shut down game after game by mediocre pitchers having a good day.

The Dusty-led Cubs flailed away aggressively with the same type of feast-or-famine offense the Reds have been plagued with for years. Now that he's gone, they've finally embraced the patient approach the statheads always preach and the results speak for themselves. If a pitcher wants to pitch around them, they let him dig that hole. If they can't get to him, they make him throw so many pitches he's gone by the fifth or sixth inning, then they feast on their Majewski.

Like it or not, more teams are embracing this approach because they find it successful. Teams like the Reds that ignore this trend do so at their own peril.

CesarGeronimo
03-06-2009, 12:39 AM
Good post, Natty.

Nasty_Boy
03-06-2009, 02:24 AM
Of course it's over-rated to him. As a 5-tool player, it's the weakest area of his game.

That said, give me 8 Brandon Phillips' every year and you win the World Series every year, even with horrible pitching.


I whole-heartedly disagree.

BLEEDS
03-06-2009, 10:00 AM
Of course it's over-rated to him. As a 5-tool player, it's the weakest area of his game.

That said, give me 8 Brandon Phillips' every year and you win the World Series every year, even with horrible pitching.

That's preposterous. Try winning games when your TEAM OPS is .733.

Unless you're trying to imply we have 8 Gold Glove Defenders in the field, in which case we still fall short of being able to close the runs gap necessary to field a .500 team or a wildcard team, let alone a World Series team - ESPECIALLY with horrible pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
03-06-2009, 10:02 AM
One thing BP is not, is non-confident:

"I'm not a prototypical fourth hitter," he said. "But I don't have any complaints. I'm happy to have a job. I'll hit anywhere one through four. Hitting fourth is a beautiful thing. I've had some success hitting there. I'm not a typical fourth hitter. But who else on the team is going to do it?"


Sure, a #6 hitter at best saying he's happy batting 1-4. Sheesh!

Who else on the team is going to bat 4th? I can think of 3-4 better IMO, even with the current roster devoid of a few .900 OPS guys...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

DTCromer
03-06-2009, 10:40 AM
I can't believe Brandon Phillips didn't care enough to talk about BABIP.

BLEEDS
03-06-2009, 11:31 AM
I can't believe Brandon Phillips didn't care enough to talk about BABIP.

Yeah, with his speed, what he should be touting is his "in scoring position percentage"

:thumbdown

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Eric_the_Red
03-06-2009, 12:20 PM
A 6th spot hitter? C'mon- he has 20-25 HR power and 25-35 SB speed and you would bat him 6th? Yeesh.

Root Down
03-06-2009, 12:50 PM
All he was saying was that he will do what he can and not sweat the stats. It's as simple as that. If he gets hits the rest will come. From what I gather in the article he is more worried about getting hits than OBP.

BLEEDS
03-06-2009, 02:04 PM
A 6th spot hitter? C'mon- he has 20-25 HR power and 25-35 SB speed and you would bat him 6th? Yeesh.

Bubblegum stats don't win games. NOT getting OUT and getting on base wins games.

Bruce, EE, & Votto have 20-25+ HR Power. They also get more HITS, and GET ON BASE more often than BP. They also don't SUCK against RHP (= 70% of the time), so yeah, I'd bat him 6th against RHP, youbetcha!

1st: I would get a REAL leadoff hitter - someone better than Tavares (which isn't asking for much). Someone who gets on base at a .350+ clip
2nd: A guy like Keppinger (when healthy) - good contact, good hits, doesn't K or GIDP a lot. Again, another healthy .340 -.350 OBP.
3rd: Your best overall hitter - Bruce eventually, but Votto now
4th: Your best slugger - I'd put EE or Bruce here now, until we develop/get/fumble into a proven .900 OPS guy
5th: Your 3rd best .OPS guy. Bruce for now, probably later somebody else from the minors
6th: Guy with talent and potential, but huge holes in his O game/just can't put it all together yet OR just an average hitter on your suck roster OR a great hitter on a monster roster. Right now, this is BP vs. RHP - hacker extraordinaire.
7th: usually a defensive, low-stick guy, like a SS or Catcher (only if said Catcher is a much better tool guy, including speed, do you bat him over that)
8th: catcher (unless as noted in #7 above).


I'm sure you're fine with fast guys who can't get on base, just like Duhsty is, so you'll remain an "ignorance is bliss" type of fan. SWEET!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Eric_the_Red
03-06-2009, 02:37 PM
Wow, I disagree with you and I'm an ignorant fan. Nice.

I don't want to get into a lineup construction argument because A) the "right" answer is almost impossible to prove, B) there is probably no overdiscussed and dissected aspect of baseball by fans than lineup construction which could be argued doesn't have much/any effect on wins/losses anyway.

BLEEDS
03-06-2009, 02:59 PM
Wow, I disagree with you and I'm an ignorant fan. Nice.

I don't want to get into a lineup construction argument because A) the "right" answer is almost impossible to prove, B) there is probably no overdiscussed and dissected aspect of baseball by fans than lineup construction which could be argued doesn't have much/any effect on wins/losses anyway.

Didn't mean to imply that, if you took it that way I apologize.

What I was saying was being ignorant of the analysis of the variables and stats that DO correlate to winning baseball - like Duhsty and BP are, and even more so with their recent comments - is no way to go through life, unless you REALLY don't care (hence the bliss part).

I can see from your second part of this post, re: lineup construction, that you don't have that.

Yes, it can be argued that it doesn't have much affect on wins/losses, but it doesn't not have "any" effect. (i.e. it does have some affect).

Biggest thing is, putting guys who don't get on base enough, higher up in the lineup, gives them more PA's than other guys who DO get on base, and that is a huge negative variable no matter how you slice it.

SO, yes, I'd bat BP no sooner than 6th versus RHP, but I would bat him 4th versus LHP, he absolutely destroys them, but unfortunately that's only a shade under 30% of the time, and it skews his HORRIBLE other 70% of AB's to make his overall numbers look mediocre/respectable.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

big boy
03-06-2009, 03:13 PM
Biggest thing is, putting guys who don't get on base enough, higher up in the lineup, gives them more PA's than other guys who DO get on base, and that is a huge negative variable no matter how you slice it.

SO, yes, I'd bat BP no sooner than 6th versus RHP, but I would bat him 4th versus LHP, he absolutely destroys them, but unfortunately that's only a shade under 30% of the time, and it skews his HORRIBLE other 70% of AB's to make his overall numbers look mediocre/respectable.

This seems logical. I didn't realize Phillips had a .293 OBP against RHP last year. Wow...that is ugly.

Rusty the Red
03-06-2009, 03:22 PM
At the end of the day, the thing is to win. That should be the goal of every team. We can discuss how and why after the game. The key is to win. I think the Reds are doing their best to accomplish that.

Natty Redlocks
03-06-2009, 04:49 PM
A 6th spot hitter? C'mon- he has 20-25 HR power and 25-35 SB speed and you would bat him 6th? Yeesh.

6th is perfect for Phillips. He has the power to drive in the middle of the lineup guys (who would theoretically be on base a lot), and the speed to manufacture runs for bottom of the order, where the worst hitters are supposed to be. You don't necessarily want a guy stealing bases in front of your best hitters, and you certainly don't want a team where Brandon Phillips is considered one of your best hitters.

Natty Redlocks
03-06-2009, 04:54 PM
At the end of the day, the thing is to win. That should be the goal of every team. We can discuss how and why after the game. The key is to win. I think the Reds are doing their best to accomplish that.

We can discuss how and why before, during, and after. We're lowly fans, it's what we do. Of course we all want them to win. And we all have our opinions about how this team could accomplish that. I, too, believe the Reds are trying to build a winner in the best way that they know how. I just don't think the way they know is likely to be effective here in this century.

mlh1981
03-06-2009, 07:41 PM
He is one of the leaders of this team now. I would like to see him show more concern about stuff like this.

BLEEDS
03-07-2009, 01:21 AM
6th is perfect for Phillips. He has the power to drive in the middle of the lineup guys (who would theoretically be on base a lot), and the speed to manufacture runs for bottom of the order, where the worst hitters are supposed to be. You don't necessarily want a guy stealing bases in front of your best hitters, and you certainly don't want a team where Brandon Phillips is considered one of your best hitters.

THAT is the REAL problem... as Brandon would say himself, looking around the locker room, gee, who SHOULD we bat 4th?!?!

Pathetic that he's even in the conversation...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TheNext44
03-07-2009, 02:56 AM
That's preposterous. Try winning games when your TEAM OPS is .733.

Unless you're trying to imply we have 8 Gold Glove Defenders in the field, in which case we still fall short of being able to close the runs gap necessary to field a .500 team or a wildcard team, let alone a World Series team - ESPECIALLY with horrible pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

One thing I will agree with you on is that no team can win with horrible pitching. Impossible.

However....

Brandon's OPS last year. was .754, not .733

Last year the league average for team OPS was .744, so a team full of Phillips would actually have a higher OPS than the league average.

More importantly, that figures out to produce around 763 runs, based on league average PA's for a team. That would place the team sixth in the league in offense last year.

A league average team full is of gold glove fielders would save around 63 runs. That is the combined URZ of the 7 gold glove winners last year according to fangraphs (they don't do catchers or pitchers). (A team of Brandon Phillips would probably save more, since he would save more runs in left, right and 1st than the gold glove winners. He probably would allow more at catcher, but probably not much more than Bako and Ross did last year.) The league average runs allowed last year was 748, so a league average team, with all gold glovers would allow around 685 runs (748-63).

A run difference of 763-685 would win 90 games according to Pythag.

So A team full of Brandon Phillips would hypothetically win 90 games, based on last years stats.

BLEEDS
03-07-2009, 11:27 AM
Good analysis, except not taken in the full context of which it was presented.
:fineprint

So, nice work, but all for naught...
:doh:


PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
03-07-2009, 11:28 AM
and btw that's his career OPS.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TheNext44
03-07-2009, 04:29 PM
Good analysis, except not taken in the full context of which it was presented.
:fineprint

So, nice work, but all for naught...
:doh:


PEACE

-BLEEDS

Not sure what you mean by right context. You said a team OPS of .733.

I think using Phillips career numbers is unfair, since it includes around 500 PA's when he was in Cleveland and not very good. I think he is more likely to have a year like last year than his career numbers. In fact, if you average his years as a Red, his OPS is even higher. But even if you use his career numbers, it means that the team wins 85 games.

If you only have BP be the starting 8 players as the original post suggested, and had the same bench as the Reds did last year, then the team would win 82 games, using career numbers and 85 using just last year.

My point, which I think is hard to refute, is that a team or starting 8 of Brandon Phillips would be a very good team, no matter what numbers you use.

Kingspoint
03-07-2009, 04:41 PM
That's preposterous. Try winning games when your TEAM OPS is .733.

Unless you're trying to imply we have 8 Gold Glove Defenders in the field, in which case we still fall short of being able to close the runs gap necessary to field a .500 team or a wildcard team, let alone a World Series team - ESPECIALLY with horrible pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I was saying 8 Gold Gloves. There'd be very few hits, no big innings, and .733 OPS would be just fine when your defense is that good and every base-runner has the speed and stolen base capability of Phillips. Phillips' value to the team is much, much greater than you think. You'll see of that in the form of the 2009 REDS as the Defense will improve at all 8 positions, except 2nd Base, this season.

Improved Defense at 7 positions added to a GG at the 8th position is not measureable by some stat. On this site, for sure, someone will try.

......And Here's The Proof why better defense wins games.......

All of the projected theories out there that use stats have the REDS winning 77 games in 2009. That's not what's going to happen. They are going to win 10 more games than that.....87 WINS...solely because of the improved Defense. The improved Defense will add confidence to the pitching staff, add confidence to the team, get them off the field quickly, lower the optimism of the opposing club, give the team a swagger of confidence, etc., etc., etc.

Mark it down, book it, write it in stone. 87 WINS by the 2009 REDS even though all of the "expert projection stats", which are often very close, and have value sometimes because of that, has the REDS winning 77 games. Improved Defense is not measureable.

That said, 87 wins last year leaves you 10 games out of the Central Division at the end of the year. Who cares? It's all about having fun in 2009 watching this fantastic group of players excel beyond their pythagorean measurements.

CWRed
03-07-2009, 04:43 PM
This thread could really be summed up this way...

OBP=extremely important and a huge key to scoring more runs than the opponent which is the ultimate goal.

Those who think it's not important or "overrated" or "contrived"=simply wrong.

Brandon Phillips logic + Dusty Baker logic = words fail me

Kingspoint
03-07-2009, 04:43 PM
Bubblegum stats don't win games. NOT getting OUT and getting on base wins games.

Bruce, EE, & Votto have 20-25+ HR Power. They also get more HITS, and GET ON BASE more often than BP. They also don't SUCK against RHP (= 70% of the time), so yeah, I'd bat him 6th against RHP, youbetcha!

1st: I would get a REAL leadoff hitter - someone better than Tavares (which isn't asking for much). Someone who gets on base at a .350+ clip
2nd: A guy like Keppinger (when healthy) - good contact, good hits, doesn't K or GIDP a lot. Again, another healthy .340 -.350 OBP.
3rd: Your best overall hitter - Bruce eventually, but Votto now
4th: Your best slugger - I'd put EE or Bruce here now, until we develop/get/fumble into a proven .900 OPS guy
5th: Your 3rd best .OPS guy. Bruce for now, probably later somebody else from the minors
6th: Guy with talent and potential, but huge holes in his O game/just can't put it all together yet OR just an average hitter on your suck roster OR a great hitter on a monster roster. Right now, this is BP vs. RHP - hacker extraordinaire.
7th: usually a defensive, low-stick guy, like a SS or Catcher (only if said Catcher is a much better tool guy, including speed, do you bat him over that)
8th: catcher (unless as noted in #7 above).


I'm sure you're fine with fast guys who can't get on base, just like Duhsty is, so you'll remain an "ignorance is bliss" type of fan. SWEET!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I'd wish Dusty thought that way.

Kingspoint
03-07-2009, 04:46 PM
Didn't mean to imply that, if you took it that way I apologize.

What I was saying was being ignorant of the analysis of the variables and stats that DO correlate to winning baseball - like Duhsty and BP are, and even more so with their recent comments - is no way to go through life, unless you REALLY don't care (hence the bliss part).

I can see from your second part of this post, re: lineup construction, that you don't have that.

Yes, it can be argued that it doesn't have much affect on wins/losses, but it doesn't not have "any" effect. (i.e. it does have some affect).

Biggest thing is, putting guys who don't get on base enough, higher up in the lineup, gives them more PA's than other guys who DO get on base, and that is a huge negative variable no matter how you slice it.

SO, yes, I'd bat BP no sooner than 6th versus RHP, but I would bat him 4th versus LHP, he absolutely destroys them, but unfortunately that's only a shade under 30% of the time, and it skews his HORRIBLE other 70% of AB's to make his overall numbers look mediocre/respectable.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Don Gullett said it best 33 years ago. "It's not rocket science. Fewer men on base equals fewer runs scored." (and vice-versa)

Kingspoint
03-07-2009, 04:47 PM
One thing I will agree with you on is that no team can win with horrible pitching. Impossible.

However....

Brandon's OPS last year. was .754, not .733

Last year the league average for team OPS was .744, so a team full of Phillips would actually have a higher OPS than the league average.

More importantly, that figures out to produce around 763 runs, based on league average PA's for a team. That would place the team sixth in the league in offense last year.

A league average team full is of gold glove fielders would save around 63 runs. That is the combined URZ of the 7 gold glove winners last year according to fangraphs (they don't do catchers or pitchers). (A team of Brandon Phillips would probably save more, since he would save more runs in left, right and 1st than the gold glove winners. He probably would allow more at catcher, but probably not much more than Bako and Ross did last year.) The league average runs allowed last year was 748, so a league average team, with all gold glovers would allow around 685 runs (748-63).

A run difference of 763-685 would win 90 games according to Pythag.

So A team full of Brandon Phillips would hypothetically win 90 games, based on last years stats.

That's pretty cool. I like how you did that.

Kingspoint
03-07-2009, 04:49 PM
That's pretty cool. I like how you did that.


I did notice that the speed factor of Phillips wasn't included. If every person that got on Base had Phillips' stolen base ability, that would drive opposing pitchers nuts.

BLEEDS
03-07-2009, 07:22 PM
Not sure what you mean by right context.

The context with which I Responded to, which was he said 8 BP's and horrible pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
03-07-2009, 08:00 PM
Put it like this... The Reds were 23rd out of 30 teams in OPS from the 4 spot in the lineup, followed by powerhouses Florida, Toronto, LAD, Washington, Seattle, Oakland, and KC. They were 21st in runs scored and 27th in RBI. Brandon only had 67 RBI out of the 4 hole last season.

Kingspoint
03-10-2009, 02:37 AM
It's ridiculous for Dusty to Phillips in the #4 hole. It's senseless. I'm liking more and more a lot of things and intangibles that Dusty does for the team, but he has some boneheaded ideas about other things that really makes me scratch my head. Phillips in the #4 hole is one of those.

Nasty_Boy
03-10-2009, 09:47 AM
Brandon's numbers were so terrible last year that there is no defending them. You MUST get better production from the #4 spot in the lineup, no questions asked! I get sick of hearing that he is the only player qualified and that nobody else can do the job... Well 21 HRs and 67 RBI isn't exactly getting it done.

Eric_the_Red
03-10-2009, 11:02 AM
Isn't Votto the best suited to bat 4th? He hits lefties and righties well, and I think hits the ball harder than anyone else on the team.

elfmanvt07
03-10-2009, 11:15 AM
Isn't Votto the best suited to bat 4th? He hits lefties and righties well, and I think hits the ball harder than anyone else on the team.

My thoughts exactly.

I struggle with where to put Brandon. Undeniably, the kid has a gift. His lack of plate discipline takes at least .150 off of his OPS. The kid has pop and a tremendous amount of coordination. I never really viewed BP's attitude as an issue until this interview surfaced, as I now feel it's affecting his offensive production.

I guess he would bat 6th in my ideal lineup as well.

Dickerson
Hopper
Bruce
Votto
EE
BPhil
Ramon
AGon

Nasty_Boy
03-10-2009, 11:22 AM
I would hit Votto 3rd at all times. He's your best hitter and you want him getting more ABs. I would hit Bruce 4th against RHP and BP 4th against LHP. Against LHP EE would hit 5th and Bruce 6th until he proved that he could hit them and get on base at a consistent rate. I also wouldn't be opposed to hitting BP 2nd against LHP and hitting EE 4th, especially if Dickerson is in the lineup because he also struggles against LHP.

EV4Prez
03-15-2009, 02:23 PM
still can't believe some here don't like B-Phill.. just amazes me.. simply amazing.. as sated before.. his defense makes up for his still ABOVE AVERAGE hitting.. esp to think that some who hate him wanted dunn to stay..

BPhill is THE BEST fielding 2b in the NL according to last year.. and his offense is also ABOVE AVERAGE..

Dunn wasn't near the best hitting player.. and his defense was near the bottom.. if we were grading both of these men..

BPhill
Off:B or B-still above average..
Def: A or A-(simply because there have been better 2b in history)

Averages out to about a B+ or so..

Dunn
Off: B+ or B (does some things really well, but even when on base he slows everyone behind him, and doesn't run smart at all)
Def: C- AT BEST.. which means SLIGHTLY below average, but you would be selling beach front property in Nebraska to someone if they believed he was even that high)

Ave: C+ or B-..

While those are by no means scientific or anything.. to tell me that he doesnt AT LEAST bring as much to the table in overall team categories is just dumb.. and ignoring what is known about each..

Is there also a chance that this quote is being taken out of context.. probably.. he might be saying, without explaining it.. OPS doesnt matter if you can't run on the basepath, or you are constantly a liability for anything going on.. just because you can get on base doesnt mean you will score.. 1 need better hitters all around in the lineup based off last year, and 2.. now that Dunn has lost weight he will probably do things like run, pay attention, and field better.. fortunately I still get to laugh at him because even in the WBC he walks to balls hit into his field..

JBChance
03-15-2009, 04:15 PM
still can't believe some here don't like B-Phill.. just amazes me.. simply amazing.. as sated before.. his defense makes up for his still ABOVE AVERAGE hitting.. esp to think that some who hate him wanted dunn to stay..

BPhill is THE BEST fielding 2b in the NL according to last year.. and his offense is also ABOVE AVERAGE..

Dunn wasn't near the best hitting player.. and his defense was near the bottom.. if we were grading both of these men..

BPhill
Off:B or B-still above average..
Def: A or A-(simply because there have been better 2b in history)

Averages out to about a B+ or so..

Dunn
Off: B+ or B (does some things really well, but even when on base he slows everyone behind him, and doesn't run smart at all)
Def: C- AT BEST.. which means SLIGHTLY below average, but you would be selling beach front property in Nebraska to someone if they believed he was even that high)

Ave: C+ or B-..

While those are by no means scientific or anything.. to tell me that he doesnt AT LEAST bring as much to the table in overall team categories is just dumb.. and ignoring what is known about each..

Is there also a chance that this quote is being taken out of context.. probably.. he might be saying, without explaining it.. OPS doesnt matter if you can't run on the basepath, or you are constantly a liability for anything going on.. just because you can get on base doesnt mean you will score.. 1 need better hitters all around in the lineup based off last year, and 2.. now that Dunn has lost weight he will probably do things like run, pay attention, and field better.. fortunately I still get to laugh at him because even in the WBC he walks to balls hit into his field..

Dunn = :deadhorse

This isn't the "compare Dunn to Phillips thread" its the "Why is BP not concerned with OBP thread"

Dunn is gone. Let it go.



Oh, and Phillips needs to improve his plate discipline. He should bat 6th vs. RHP and, lacking another RH power bat, 4th or maybe 3rd vs. LHP.

big boy
03-17-2009, 09:59 PM
still can't believe some here don't like B-Phill.. just amazes me.. simply amazing

I don't know where you get that. Most Cincinnati fans (and RedsZone posters) like Phillips a lot. He is a spectacular fielder, seems to love the game, and is fun to watch. What they don't like, however, is that he is one of the worst cleanup hitters in baseball.

Root Down
03-17-2009, 10:13 PM
What they don't like, however, is that he is one of the worst cleanup hitters in baseball.

He is one of / arguably the best 2nd baseman in the game right now. Certainly not his fault he is cleanup. He would probably do much better in a different slot but apparently Dusty wants him where he is so that is where he will be.

Nasty_Boy
03-18-2009, 01:03 AM
He's one of the top 2-3 fielding 2nd basemen, but he's only in the top 10 in HRs (tied for 3rd) SBs (3rd, but he was caught 10 times) RBIs (6th) among 2nd basemen. He ranks in the 10-15 range among everyday 2nd basemen in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, Hits, Runs, XBH and walks... He was 11th in RC, and 13th in RC27 among 2nd basemen.

The guy has talent, but I refuse to give a guy a free pass when he's not producing. He kills the offense by hitting 4th, especially against RHP... even though that's not his fault. I root for Brandon and I keep my fingers crossed that he'll realize his potiential, but until he figures out how to be more patient and get on base more often his offensive game isn't impressive.

TheNext44
03-18-2009, 02:05 AM
He's one of the top 2-3 fielding 2nd basemen, but he's only in the top 10 in HRs (tied for 3rd) SBs (3rd, but he was caught 10 times) RBIs (6th) among 2nd basemen. He ranks in the 10-15 range among everyday 2nd basemen in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, Hits, Runs, XBH and walks... He was 11th in RC, and 13th in RC27 among 2nd basemen.

The guy has talent, but I refuse to give a guy a free pass when he's not producing. He kills the offense by hitting 4th, especially against RHP... even though that's not his fault. I root for Brandon and I keep my fingers crossed that he'll realize his potiential, but until he figures out how to be more patient and get on base more often his offensive game isn't impressive.

I agree with your overall assessment of Phillip, that he needs to be more patient at the plate. Imagine how good he could be be if he ever stopped swing at the low and away breaking stuff.

However, those rankings you gave are actually impressive. Those all put him in the top half of the majors and almost in the top third, which is very impressive. He was ranked 5th in the NL in OPS among 2B last year which puts him in the top third.

And last year was an off year for him. In 2007 he was 8th in the majors in OPS and 5th in the NL for 2B.

Combine that with his gold glove, and easily being in the top 3 in defense, and I think a case can be made that overall he is one of the best 2B in the majors. Personally I would put him behind Utley. Polanco, and Pedroia, which is pretty good company.

gilpdawg
03-18-2009, 03:23 PM
I was saying 8 Gold Gloves. There'd be very few hits, no big innings, and .733 OPS would be just fine when your defense is that good and every base-runner has the speed and stolen base capability of Phillips. Phillips' value to the team is much, much greater than you think. You'll see of that in the form of the 2009 REDS as the Defense will improve at all 8 positions, except 2nd Base, this season.

Improved Defense at 7 positions added to a GG at the 8th position is not measureable by some stat. On this site, for sure, someone will try.

......And Here's The Proof why better defense wins games.......

All of the projected theories out there that use stats have the REDS winning 77 games in 2009. That's not what's going to happen. They are going to win 10 more games than that.....87 WINS...solely because of the improved Defense. The improved Defense will add confidence to the pitching staff, add confidence to the team, get them off the field quickly, lower the optimism of the opposing club, give the team a swagger of confidence, etc., etc., etc.

Mark it down, book it, write it in stone. 87 WINS by the 2009 REDS even though all of the "expert projection stats", which are often very close, and have value sometimes because of that, has the REDS winning 77 games. Improved Defense is not measureable.

That said, 87 wins last year leaves you 10 games out of the Central Division at the end of the year. Who cares? It's all about having fun in 2009 watching this fantastic group of players excel beyond their pythagorean measurements.

10 extra wins? Really? I'd go with 5, at the most. I'd be ecstatic with a .500 season, which would be 81 wins, of course.

Nasty_Boy
03-18-2009, 10:52 PM
In 2007 he was 8th in the majors in OPS and 5th in the NL for 2B.

Are you talking about 2nd basemen? He was 71st in the majors in OPS in 2007.

I'm sorry but I don't find a guy in the bottom 3rd of qualified hitters at his position that impressive. There was nothing impressive about what he did at the plate in 2008. In 2007 he had a special season and hopefully he returns to that form... but in 2007 Jr and Dunn were tearing it up on each side of him, so what is the real Brandon Phillips? If he stays in the 4 hole all season and hits like he did in 2008 he will kill this offense. I have always said that Brandon has the talent to do anything he wants on the baseball field, but he has to realize who he is and what he is needed to do.

Nasty_Boy
03-18-2009, 10:56 PM
Utley. Polanco, and Pedroia, which is pretty good company.

And Kinsler, Roberts, Lopez, Uggla and DeRosa with the bat. Defensively it's Utley, Phillips, Polanco, Pedroia, and Hudson in some order.

UC_Ken
03-19-2009, 02:23 PM
If he stays in the 4 hole all season and hits like he did in 2008 he will kill this offense. I have always said that Brandon has the talent to do anything he wants on the baseball field, but he has to realize who he is and what he is needed to do.

People usually don't learn to be disciplined at the plate after being so undisciplined for their entire career. I just don't think he has the ability to post an acceptable OBP for a hitter above 7 or 8. Love BP for what he is: a sick glove man with a little pop in his bat. Nasty, I'm not accusing you of this, I just don't get why people think that BP should be an integral part of any succesful offense. Put him down at 7 where he belongs.

TheNext44
03-19-2009, 02:49 PM
Are you talking about 2nd basemen? He was 71st in the majors in OPS in 2007.

I'm sorry but I don't find a guy in the bottom 3rd of qualified hitters at his position that impressive. There was nothing impressive about what he did at the plate in 2008. In 2007 he had a special season and hopefully he returns to that form... but in 2007 Jr and Dunn were tearing it up on each side of him, so what is the real Brandon Phillips? If he stays in the 4 hole all season and hits like he did in 2008 he will kill this offense. I have always said that Brandon has the talent to do anything he wants on the baseball field, but he has to realize who he is and what he is needed to do.


Where is he in the bottom third of qualified hitters at his position? Last year he was ranked 11th in OPS among all qualified 2B. In 2007 he was ranked 8th. That puts him in ar near the top third.
And if he was ranked 71 overall, that puts him in the middle of all 138 qualified hitters in the majors. That would be in the middle third of all qualified hitters.

I agree with you on everything else, but the facts are clear. BP is in the top third offensively among 2b in the majors, and almost exactly in the middle of all offensive players in the majors.

Captain Hook
03-20-2009, 01:17 AM
Its too bad that Dusty insist that BP bats 4th.You're all basically debating, if he is one of the worse clean up hitters in the game and imo that he is.Bat him 6th and we can argue about whether or not he is one of the best 2b in the game.

Nasty_Boy
03-20-2009, 11:34 AM
Maybe, I clicked something wrong... I'm not sure. But when I see him in the 11-14 range among 2nd basemen, I'm not impressed. Especially when you figure in that he's hitting 4th and he's going to be getting paid like a premier player. He's outstanding defensively, just plain awesome! I'm sorry but color me unimpressed about the guy's performance at the plate.

JBChance
03-21-2009, 04:12 AM
People usually don't learn to be disciplined at the plate after being so undisciplined for their entire career. I just don't think he has the ability to post an acceptable OBP for a hitter above 7 or 8. Love BP for what he is: a sick glove man with a little pop in his bat. Nasty, I'm not accusing you of this, I just don't get why people think that BP should be an integral part of any succesful offense. Put him down at 7 where he belongs.

Bingo

He's absolutely miscast in this offense. We had a chance, this off season, to add a player to be our clean-up guy and didn't do it. So, he's still going to be stuck in the spot, wrongly.

He does hit well enough vs. LHP to bat him 4th, if you don't have a better option. We don't have a better RH batter, save EdE, so he hits there.

The problem is, he should never be in the 4 hole with his struggles vs. RHP. They continue to put him there, anyway. Call it lineup stability. Call it stupidity. Call it anything you want. The team appears to not want to change. That doesn't make Phillips a bad player.

CesarGeronimo
03-21-2009, 04:18 PM
Exactly right, UCKen and JB Chance. The one area where Phillips can improve his hitting over last season was that he was trying to pull the ball to much, which he has worked on this spring and shown some progress there, but he still just simply should not be the cleanup hitter.

Given the lack of a good solution for the No. 4 hitter, I've been wondering if they should put the left field platoon of Dickerson/Gomes there. Dusty is poised to have Gonzalez as the No. 2 hitter, which is a mistake that compounds the mistake of having Willy Patteveras as the leadoff guy, so that Dickerson/Gomes will bat No. 7.

But I think Dickerson hitting only against lefties and Gomes hitting only against righties could make LF one of the team's most productive positions at the plate. A team that bats its left fielder at No. 7 has clearly failed to find an adequate player or platoon for a position - unlike second base - that should be filled by one of a team's best hitters.

BLEEDS
03-22-2009, 06:39 PM
Personally, I think Brandon is in the top 15 in every category, for 2b-men in the NL...

So, obviously, he should bat 4th.

End of discussion.

PEACE

-BLEEDS