EddieMilner

03-05-2009, 05:07 PM

I have been thinking about how to better represent success during an AB. I feel that someone else has thought of something close to this, so I was wondering if any one knew of a stat like this.

Basically its a look at how successfull a batter is at his plate appearance.

Each time a batter is up, there are a finite amount of options possible:

If no one is on he can:

1. Batter creates an out

2. Batter advances to first

3. Batter advances to second

4. Batter advances to third

5. Batter advances to home

I want to give a value between 0 and 1 for each of these instances to show the batters success rate during this time up. Therefore:

1.00 - Reached Home

0.75 - Reached Third

0.50 - Reached Second

0.25 - Reached First

0.00 - Recorded an out

So if there was a person on first and no outs the following outcomes would be possible:

1. Create Two Outs

2. Create an Out and base runner/batter stays on first

3. Create an out and base runner/batter advacnes to second

4. Create an out and base runner/batter moves to third

5. Create an out and base runner/batter scores

6. Create no out base runner advances to second, batter advances to first

7. Create no out base runner advances to third, batter advances to first

8. Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to first

9. Create no out base runner advances to third, batter advances to second

10. Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to second

11. Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to third

12. Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to home.

Now, in this situation, I would rank the highest values as scoring runs as opposed to not making outs.

So the points would be:

1.00 - Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to home.

.909 - Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to third

.818 - Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to second

.727 - Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to first

.636 - Create an out and base runner/batter scores

.545 - Create no out base runner advances to third, batter advances to second

.455 - Create no out base runner advances to third, batter advances to first

.364 - Create no out base runner advances to second, batter advances to first

.273 - Create an out and base runner/batter moves to third

.182 - Create an out and base runner/batter advances to second

.091 - Create an Out and base runner/batter stays on first

.000 - Create Two Outs

Then you basically average the value from each at bat to create some type of success rating.

Obviously the more batters you have on, the more possible outcomes, as well as how many outs should come into play as well. But there are still a finite amount of possibilities from any batting situation.

I understand that you are taking into account better base runners into the batters statistics and things of that nature, however I think it would give a better idea of how successful a batter is every time they get up to bat.

Different people may value not making an out higher than making an out and scoring a run, so that is definitely a debatable topic for this.

Does anyone know of an existing statistic that already does this, or something close to it?

Basically its a look at how successfull a batter is at his plate appearance.

Each time a batter is up, there are a finite amount of options possible:

If no one is on he can:

1. Batter creates an out

2. Batter advances to first

3. Batter advances to second

4. Batter advances to third

5. Batter advances to home

I want to give a value between 0 and 1 for each of these instances to show the batters success rate during this time up. Therefore:

1.00 - Reached Home

0.75 - Reached Third

0.50 - Reached Second

0.25 - Reached First

0.00 - Recorded an out

So if there was a person on first and no outs the following outcomes would be possible:

1. Create Two Outs

2. Create an Out and base runner/batter stays on first

3. Create an out and base runner/batter advacnes to second

4. Create an out and base runner/batter moves to third

5. Create an out and base runner/batter scores

6. Create no out base runner advances to second, batter advances to first

7. Create no out base runner advances to third, batter advances to first

8. Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to first

9. Create no out base runner advances to third, batter advances to second

10. Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to second

11. Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to third

12. Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to home.

Now, in this situation, I would rank the highest values as scoring runs as opposed to not making outs.

So the points would be:

1.00 - Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to home.

.909 - Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to third

.818 - Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to second

.727 - Create no out base runner advances to home, batter advances to first

.636 - Create an out and base runner/batter scores

.545 - Create no out base runner advances to third, batter advances to second

.455 - Create no out base runner advances to third, batter advances to first

.364 - Create no out base runner advances to second, batter advances to first

.273 - Create an out and base runner/batter moves to third

.182 - Create an out and base runner/batter advances to second

.091 - Create an Out and base runner/batter stays on first

.000 - Create Two Outs

Then you basically average the value from each at bat to create some type of success rating.

Obviously the more batters you have on, the more possible outcomes, as well as how many outs should come into play as well. But there are still a finite amount of possibilities from any batting situation.

I understand that you are taking into account better base runners into the batters statistics and things of that nature, however I think it would give a better idea of how successful a batter is every time they get up to bat.

Different people may value not making an out higher than making an out and scoring a run, so that is definitely a debatable topic for this.

Does anyone know of an existing statistic that already does this, or something close to it?