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chicoruiz
03-16-2009, 12:34 PM
Thought I'd start a separate thread for this: What first-round upsets will adorn your bracket this year?

I was listening to ex-Bowling Green and Indiana coach Dan Dakich on the radio today, and among his thoughts:

1. Northern Iowa could give Purdue all it can handle.

2. Akron has a real chance against Gonzaga.

3. Watch out for Western Kentucky.

So, I haven't done my bracket yet-- what upsets should I consider?

Chip R
03-16-2009, 12:42 PM
Thought I'd start a separate thread for this: What first-round upsets will adorn your bracket this year?

I was listening to ex-Bowling Green and Indiana coach Dan Dakich on the radio today, and among his thoughts:

1. Northern Iowa could give Purdue all it can handle.



From his lips to God's ears. :thumbup:

Hoosier Red
03-16-2009, 12:44 PM
Cleveland State over Wake Forest.(Wake doesn't do well with Horizon League foes.)
VCU over UCLA(UCLA hasn't played solid for any stretch this season.)

Minnesota over Texas in 10-7 game

DTCromer
03-16-2009, 12:57 PM
Western Kentucky should be damn near a favorite over Illinois without Frazier.

Some HUGE upsets that I'm willing to pick. . . . in some brackets

North Dakota State over Kansas
SFAU over SU

Caveat Emperor
03-16-2009, 01:18 PM
Not much of an upset, but I like Maryland over Cal.

Temple is also pretty hot right now, and it's tough to pick against a guy with a last name like "Christmas."

Danny Serafini
03-16-2009, 01:19 PM
VCU over UCLA looks pretty solid. Haven't seen the start times yet, but it will get even more solid if they play the noon game, which will feel like 9AM to players still on west coast time. Western Kentucky against a wounded Illinois has potential. Cleveland St. is a possibility, Wake has really cooled down since getting to #1.

I don't like Akron one bit. The MAC in general hasn't been impressive this year, and it's a virtual home game for Gonzaga playing in Portland. Likewise I don't think Northern Iowa can handle a hot Purdue team, a healthy Robbie Hummel makes a huge difference.

cumberlandreds
03-16-2009, 02:15 PM
Stephen F Austin over Syracuse. I think Syracuse shot their wad in the Big East tourney.
I also got VCU over UCLA;Utah State over Marquette,WKU over Illinios;Maryland over Cal and Temple over Arizona State. May be too many upsets but I think you are going to see quite a few in the early rounds this year.

Falls City Beer
03-16-2009, 02:28 PM
WKU over Illinois, fait accompli.

BuckeyeRedleg
03-16-2009, 02:40 PM
Stephen F Austin over Syracuse. I think Syracuse shot their wad in the Big East tourney.

I was going to say the same. As for 3 vs. 14, I'll go with North Dakota St. over Kansas. Just a gut feeling.

4 vs. 13, I like Cleveland St. over Wake.

LoganBuck
03-16-2009, 03:18 PM
I think Ohio State can take Louisville, if Diebler has a good night.

cincrazy
03-16-2009, 03:21 PM
I think Ohio State can take Louisville, if Diebler has a good night.

I would love for you to be right, but I just don't see it. OSU doesn't rebound well and they tend to get turnover happy, and Louisville has the size to kill them on the boards, and Pitino has a bust for him in the Hall of Fame due in part to his pressure defense. Advancing over Siena is no automatic, but if they do, I'm afraid that Louisville will embarrass them.

Danny Serafini
03-16-2009, 03:23 PM
As a Syracuse fan, I can say that I'm not the slightest bit worried about "Stone Cold" Stephen F. Austin. They will have five full days of rest before that game, so fatigue isn't going to be a factor, and there just isn't anything special about SFA to think they're dangerous.

DTCromer
03-16-2009, 03:27 PM
As a Syracuse fan, I can say that I'm not the slightest bit worried about "Stone Cold" Stephen F. Austin. They will have five full days of rest before that game, so fatigue isn't going to be a factor, and there just isn't anything special about SFA to think they're dangerous.

Well, there was nothing special about Vermont and TAMU either after the last 2 times you made a deep run in the BET.

RichRed
03-16-2009, 03:40 PM
VCU over UCLA. Heck, I wouldn't even really consider it that much of an upset. VCU has two potential NBAers in Eric Maynor and Larry Sanders and they're a very good team.

Danny Serafini
03-16-2009, 03:47 PM
1. That was a special Vermont team. They had prior tournament experience and two bona fide studs in Coppenrath and Sorrentine. This SFA team doesn't have that.

2. McNamara was injured against A&M. There are no injury concerns this year.

Neither of those past scenarios are applicable to this year. You're barking up the wrong tree if you're counting on an SFA upset.

LoganBuck
03-16-2009, 04:07 PM
I would love for you to be right, but I just don't see it. OSU doesn't rebound well and they tend to get turnover happy, and Louisville has the size to kill them on the boards, and Pitino has a bust for him in the Hall of Fame due in part to his pressure defense. Advancing over Siena is no automatic, but if they do, I'm afraid that Louisville will embarrass them.

Agree, but in the NCAA a player like Diebler is the difference between getting blown out, and winning an upset. He has the ability to go off. In order for them to win he has to score at least 20. Otherwise there is no way, unless Louisville goes out and shoots under 40% for the game, which is possible.

I love the tourney. We can debate all these games, and then some chic upset pick will get blown away, and another team with absolutely no chance whatsoever will win.

cincrazy
03-16-2009, 04:18 PM
Agree, but in the NCAA a player like Diebler is the difference between getting blown out, and winning an upset. He has the ability to go off. In order for them to win he has to score at least 20. Otherwise there is no way, unless Louisville goes out and shoots under 40% for the game, which is possible.

I love the tourney. We can debate all these games, and then some chic upset pick will get blown away, and another team with absolutely no chance whatsoever will win.

I agree, if Diebler has a good game they have a shot. But I think the problem with relying on that is, Louisville plays very aggressive man to man, and most of Diebler's success comes against the zone. In general this year, he's had a problem getting his shot off against teams that can blanket him one on one.

Reds Fanatic
03-16-2009, 04:22 PM
I like Utah State over Marquette. Marquette has struggled since Dominic James has been injured and Utah State has a solid team.

Western Kentucky and VCU are 2 other picks that I would not even really consider major upsets.

joshnky
03-16-2009, 04:38 PM
I agree, if Diebler has a good game they have a shot. But I think the problem with relying on that is, Louisville plays very aggressive man to man, and most of Diebler's success comes against the zone. In general this year, he's had a problem getting his shot off against teams that can blanket him one on one.

Louisville switches defenses a lot but they are primarily a 2-3 zone team. However, they play a very aggressive zone that crowds the three point line. They couldn't have beaten long range teams like Villanova, Syracuse, and WVU if they didn't.

IMO, the key to beating them is depth in the back court. If your team has the depth of ball handlers to match up with the four guards UofL throws out there in the full court press you can win. Ever since the Notre Dame game they've bludgeoned teams with huge 2nd half runs when the ball handlers began to tire. They've beaten teams with good guard play as well but no one will upset them if they can't handle the press for an entire game.

BRM
03-16-2009, 04:42 PM
Louisville switches defenses a lot but they are primarily a 2-3 zone team. However, they play a very aggressive zone that crowds the three point line. They couldn't have beaten long range teams like Villanova, Syracuse, and WVU if they didn't.

IMO, the key to beating them is depth in the back court. If your team has the depth of ball handlers to match up with the four guards UofL throws out there in the full court press you can win. Ever since the Notre Dame game they've bludgeoned teams with huge 2nd half runs when the ball handlers began to tire. They've beaten teams with good guard play as well but no one will upset them if they can't handle the press for an entire game.

And those four guards are relentless with their pressure. Especially Knowles and McGee. They will definitely wear out a team's ballhandlers. If you are a fan of defense, Louisville is definitely the squad for you. I love watching them play.

cumberlandreds
03-16-2009, 04:46 PM
And those four guards are relentless with their pressure. Especially Knowles and McGee. They will definitely wear out a team's ballhandlers. If you are a fan of defense, Louisville is definitely the squad for you. I love watching them play.

For the first time in Pitinos tenure at UL I think this resembles his UK teams of the 90's. They have relentless pressure that just wears down whoever they play. I'll be surprised if they aren't in the final four and in fact I'm picking them to win it.

LoganBuck
03-16-2009, 04:48 PM
I agree, if Diebler has a good game they have a shot. But I think the problem with relying on that is, Louisville plays very aggressive man to man, and most of Diebler's success comes against the zone. In general this year, he's had a problem getting his shot off against teams that can blanket him one on one.

I would look for him more in transition and coming off screens. But totally understand what you are saying. I'm just saying it is possible.

Caveat Emperor
03-16-2009, 04:51 PM
Also, digging deeper into the numbers, I find a lot to like about Arizona's matchup against Utah.

cincrazy
03-16-2009, 05:12 PM
I would look for him more in transition and coming off screens. But totally understand what you are saying. I'm just saying it is possible.

I agree :). After all, Louisville did lose to Notre Dame by like THIRTY FREAKIN POINTS, and the Bucks beat Notre Dame.

bucksfan2
03-16-2009, 05:19 PM
If OSU wins they have a decent shot at UL. OSU's main problem has been defending the 3 point line. They got burned by teams who were less talented but moved the ball around and over loaded a certain zone and hit 3's. OSU would be a scary 8 seed because they have the talent to compete with anyone.

Boston Red
03-16-2009, 05:37 PM
Louisville/Siena would be a fun matchup. Louisville would likely kill them, but it would be entertaining as hell given the way both teams like to play.

Caveat Emperor
03-16-2009, 05:48 PM
If OSU wins they have a decent shot at UL. OSU's main problem has been defending the 3 point line. They got burned by teams who were less talented but moved the ball around and over loaded a certain zone and hit 3's. OSU would be a scary 8 seed because they have the talent to compete with anyone.

No offense, but I think OSU would do well to keep the game close.

The only thing that keeps me from thinking this game will be a laugher is the fact that it is effectively a home game for OSU -- being played less than an hour from home in front of (likely) a very partisan OSU crowd.

joshnky
03-16-2009, 06:05 PM
No offense, but I think OSU would do well to keep the game close.

The only thing that keeps me from thinking this game will be a laugher is the fact that it is effectively a home game for OSU -- being played less than an hour from home in front of (likely) a very partisan OSU crowd.

I know this is true but wonder how much it will be mitigated by a large number of very excited Louisville fans making the trip up combined with the Pitt fans who will likely want to cheer for the team from their conference.

Also, when people discuss the Notre Dame loss they fail to recognize that Terrence Williams was injured and ineffective during that game. His wrist really limited his shooting and overall play and he probably shouldn't have played. If he would have sat it would still be a loss but largely overlooked.

Notre Dame was fired up, at home, and probably would have won regardless but the game would have been much closer if TWill had put in his normal stat line. He is the engine of this team and without him they're mediocre.

One final thought: Louisville has been shooting the three recently like the UK teams of the 90s which has fueled their recent offensive success. If they stay hot they will win it all. What worries me is that they might fall in love with the three and Clark and Williams spend more time outside the line launching long jumpers which isn't their strongest attribute.

Hoosier Red
03-17-2009, 11:48 AM
Can we stop the wailing and gnashing of teeth due to tOSU being one hour closer than Louisville.

Freedom Hall to UD Arena.
155 mi about 2 hours 28 mins

Schottenstein Center to UD Arena
75.0 mi about 1 hour 21 mins

If you can't drive 2 1/2 hours to see the #1 team in the country you deserve to get beat.

bucksfan2
03-17-2009, 12:41 PM
Can we stop the wailing and gnashing of teeth due to tOSU being one hour closer than Louisville.

Freedom Hall to UD Arena.
155 mi about 2 hours 28 mins

Schottenstein Center to UD Arena
75.0 mi about 1 hour 21 mins

If you can't drive 2 1/2 hours to see the #1 team in the country you deserve to get beat.

If they both play here is what you will see happen. Louisville will have more team fans than OSU. What plays in OSU's favor is that they are an underdog and also are playing in Ohio. Dayton isn't like Cincinnati where there are a mix of fans, Dayton is primarily a UD or OSU town. If the game stays closer OSU will have a majority of the fans.

The reason I think it could be a good game is that OSU has that top tier talent. They may not be as talented as UL but they have the talent to match up. Throw in a one and done scenario as well as a particular player being hot/cold and you could could have the makings for an exciting game.

Scrap Irony
03-17-2009, 02:04 PM
Love those 'Toppers. Also, I like UCLA over Duke (2nd round), assuming Howland's squad can get that far.

Louisville has to be co-favorite at least, unless UNC gets healthy quick. but they are Jekyll and Hyde in their own right, willing to launch threes rather than slash to the hoop on occasion. Too, good point guards kill Louisville, especially quick, long range shooters.

Smart teams and teams that swarm the ball also have historically given Pitino-led squads fits.

joshnky
03-17-2009, 03:26 PM
Love those 'Toppers. Also, I like UCLA over Duke (2nd round), assuming Howland's squad can get that far.

Louisville has to be co-favorite at least, unless UNC gets healthy quick. but they are Jekyll and Hyde in their own right, willing to launch threes rather than slash to the hoop on occasion. Too, good point guards kill Louisville, especially quick, long range shooters.

Smart teams and teams that swarm the ball also have historically given Pitino-led squads fits.

The more I think about it the better I feel about Louisville's chances. When they struggle it is because of really poor shooting which keeps them from setting up the press. And even when they've shot poorly recently they've been able to turn up the press in the 2nd half which leads to easier shots. The key to beating them is probably to get up on them early and big. Notre Dame did that and coasted to a victory. Syracuse and Villanova built up double digit leads but it still wasn't enough as Louisville surged past them. Also, Hasheem Thabeet killed them in that game but there is only one of him in the country.

Outside of that I think it will take something out of the ordinary like serious foul trouble to Clark and Williams (they've avoided this all year) for a team to knock them off before the final four.

TeamSelig
03-17-2009, 03:34 PM
What do you guys think of these matchups?

Purdue/Washington
Marquette/Utah St
Florida St/Xavier
VCU/Nova
WKy/Gonzaga

Also looking for a team to beat Memphis. Not sure which one.

NorrisHopper30
03-17-2009, 03:38 PM
I have Maryland and Michigan in the Sweet 16.

bucksfan2
03-17-2009, 03:40 PM
Purdue/Washington
Purdue is a tough team that can shoot the ball pretty well. I like Purdue a lot in this tournament

Marquette/Utah St
James being out for the season has shell shocked Marquette. They still are very talented and are a tough matchup because everyone on the court can take the ball to the hole.

Florida St/Xavier
Don't know what to think about this game. I liked Xavier a lot until their late season slide. Not a huge FSU fan and think a tough X defense will give them fits.

VCU/Nova
I really like both teams. Maynard is a stud PG but VCU has a tough draw with UCLA and Howland in the first round. Both UCLA and VCU were my pre-tourny sleepers but they match up in the first round. I like Nova to go far in this tournament. Jay Wright is a very very good coach.

WKy/Gonzaga
Gonzaga is for real. Well I say that every year but this may be their best all around team. I think Gonzaga gets beat by UNC but a fun game to watch. If Lawson can't go Gonzaga may wind up beating UNC.

LoganBuck
03-17-2009, 03:44 PM
What do you guys think of these matchups?

Purdue/Washington
Marquette/Utah St
Florida St/Xavier
VCU/Nova
WKy/Gonzaga

Also looking for a team to beat Memphis. Not sure which one.

I like Purdue, and Florida State.

I won't go so far as to pick Florida State but they have the firepower to get to the Final Four.

I think Purdue is another team that would not surprise me if they show up in the Final Four.

Danny Serafini
03-17-2009, 03:50 PM
Purdue/Washington
I like Purdue right now, they're hot, but the game is in Portland, so it's going to essentially be a home game for Washington. It's a coin flip.

Marquette/Utah St
The game being in Boise will make it a Utah St. crowd, but I can't get excited about Utah St. The only game against a real quality opponent they had in a while was an unimpressive loss against St. Mary's, without Patty Mills. Marquette isn't the same without James, but they still came within a second of beating Villanova.

Florida St/Xavier
Xavier feels like a team stumbling down the stretch. I like Florida St.

VCU/Nova
I love VCU over UCLA, but not in the second round. Beating Villanova in Philadelphia just isn't going to happen.

WKy/Gonzaga
Gonzaga should whack W. Kentucky. Gonzaga is improving, and it's another virtual home crowd in Portland.

Boston Red
03-17-2009, 04:19 PM
WKU beat Gonzaga in the first round last year, too, so there would be no sneaking up on the Zags. Besides, I don't think this is a particularly good WKU team. I think Illinois handles them in the first round.

bucksfan2
03-17-2009, 04:47 PM
I think something funny is going to happen this year. I have a feeling that one #1 seed wont make it past the first weekend. I wouldn't be too shocked if only one #1 seed made it to the final four. I wouldn't be surprised if Purdue, Wake, Gonzaga, or FSU made it to the final four but those could very likely flame out early. This may be the year in which a high seed makes the final four. Too much overall balance amongst most teams.

*BaseClogger*
03-17-2009, 04:50 PM
I have Maryland and Michigan in the Sweet 16.

Michigan? :confused:

Hoosier Red
03-17-2009, 05:53 PM
Michigan's a witch of a tournament opponent. They play that stupid zone and have people who can shoot from 3.

At least WV was always a tough out when Beilien was there. Perhaps we can assume the same for UM now.

WVRed
03-17-2009, 07:42 PM
Top Five First Round Upsets:

Arizona (12) over Utah (5). I have a hard time with Arizona making the tournament, but they have a favorable matchup with Utah.

UCU (11) over UCLA (6). UCLA hasn't been consistent all season and Anthony Grant has knocked off top teams in the tourney before.

Western Kentucky (12) over Illinois (5). This has more to due with the injury to Frazier, and this is the same WKU who beat Louisville earlier in the season.

Temple (11) over Arizona St. (6). Harden vs Christmas will be fun to watch, but Az St hasn't really lived up to the hype.

USC (10) over Boston College (7). USC has gelled at the right time and if Gibson, Hackett, and DeRozan have a good game, they can pull this one off.

One that I am afraid to pull the trigger on:

Stephen F. Austin (14) over Syracuse (3). I believe that even with the rest, Syracuse will not be able to recover from the Big East tournament run. That being said, I don't think Stephen F. Austin will be the team to do it.

Second round upset:

West Virginia (6) over Kansas (3). Kansas doesn't have the same team as last year and West Virginia plays a very physical style of play that will give the Jayhawks problems.

Others I am afraid to pick:

Western Kentucky (11) over Gonzaga (3). I think WKU could pull this one off, but location is going to be critical in this one.

Ohio State (8) over Louisville (1). This could be a tougher game than what people expect, but the Buckeyes will have a home court advantage. Samuels and Mullens will cancel each other out and if Matta can find a way to contain Terrence Williams and Earl Clark both offensively and on the boards, Ohio State could possibly win.

Minnesota (10) over Duke (2). I know this will draw a laugh or two, but Tubby has managed to outcoach Coach K before during the NCAA tournament. Minnesota doesn't have the players Tubby had in 1998 at Kentucky, but to be honest, this Duke team isn't exactly the same one either. Again, with Gonzaga, location wins out.

Boston Red
03-17-2009, 07:49 PM
Temple (11) over Arizona St. (6). John Chaney will outcoach Herb Sendek, even with James Harden in the lineup. Harden vs Christmas will be fun to watch.




Chaney has been retired for at least three years. How do you feel about Fran Dunphy?

DTCromer
03-17-2009, 08:12 PM
Gonzaga is too soft to make it to the Final Four. Any team that gets labeled as "They have the talent, buuuuut. . .. " never makes it there.

WMR
03-17-2009, 08:19 PM
Top Five First Round Upsets:

Arizona (12) over Utah (5). I have a hard time with Arizona making the tournament, but they have a favorable matchup with Utah.

UCU (11) over UCLA (6). UCLA hasn't been consistent all season and Anthony Grant has knocked off top teams in the tourney before.

Western Kentucky (12) over Illinois (5). This has more to due with the injury to Frazier, and this is the same WKU who beat Louisville earlier in the season.

Temple (11) over Arizona St. (6). John Chaney will outcoach Herb Sendek, even with James Harden in the lineup. Harden vs Christmas will be fun to watch.

USC (10) over Boston College (7). USC has gelled at the right time and if Gibson, Hackett, and DeRozan have a good game, they can pull this one off.

One that I am afraid to pull the trigger on:

Stephen F. Austin (14) over Syracuse (3). I believe that even with the rest, Syracuse will not be able to recover from the Big East tournament run. That being said, I don't think Stephen F. Austin will be the team to do it.

Second round upset:

West Virginia (6) over Kansas (3). Kansas doesn't have the same team as last year and West Virginia plays a very physical style of play that will give the Jayhawks problems.

Others I am afraid to pick:

Western Kentucky (11) over Gonzaga (3). I think WKU could pull this one off, but location is going to be critical in this one.

Ohio State (8) over Louisville (1). This could be a tougher game than what people expect, but the Buckeyes will have a home court advantage. Samuels and Mullens will cancel each other out and if Matta can find a way to contain Terrence Williams and Earl Clark both offensively and on the boards, Ohio State could possibly win.

Minnesota (10) over Duke (2). I know this will draw a laugh or two, but Tubby has managed to outcoach Coach K before during the NCAA tournament. Minnesota doesn't have the players Tubby had in 1998 at Kentucky, but to be honest, this Duke team isn't exactly the same one either. Again, with Gonzaga, location wins out.

JOHN CHANEY??? :laugh: C'mon, WV.

WVRed
03-17-2009, 08:28 PM
Chaney has been retired for at least three years. How do you feel about Fran Dunphy?

Shows how much I follow the Atlantic 10.

Caveat Emperor
03-18-2009, 01:55 AM
Gonzaga is too soft to make it to the Final Four. Any team that gets labeled as "They have the talent, buuuuut. . .. " never makes it there.

I feel the same way about Wake Forest -- even though I think they have a very legitimate shot to take Louisville out should such a matchup occur.

Slyder
03-18-2009, 07:36 AM
I agree :). After all, Louisville did lose to Notre Dame by like THIRTY FREAKIN POINTS, and the Bucks beat Notre Dame.

And Louisville beat WVU and WVU stepped on and CRUSHED OSU at OSU so?

bucksfan2
03-18-2009, 09:18 AM
I really think its either UL or UConn who go down first, if not both. For some reason I just don't see UL going very far. Its nothing against UL I just got a gut feeling.

cumberlandreds
03-18-2009, 12:03 PM
Here's a photo article of past tournament upsets. It's their top 25 upsets.


http://www.prepticket.com/album/823292:Album:51478/market/national/id/823292:Photo:51477

TeamSelig
03-18-2009, 12:35 PM
What do you guys think of Missouri? I've got them slated to beat Memphis, but I'm not sure if that is smart. I'm not sure why, but I really don't like Memphis. Mainly because they really haven't played many good teams.

Cyclone792
03-18-2009, 03:54 PM
Top Five First Round Upsets:

Arizona (12) over Utah (5). I have a hard time with Arizona making the tournament, but they have a favorable matchup with Utah.

UCU (11) over UCLA (6). UCLA hasn't been consistent all season and Anthony Grant has knocked off top teams in the tourney before.

Western Kentucky (12) over Illinois (5). This has more to due with the injury to Frazier, and this is the same WKU who beat Louisville earlier in the season.

Temple (11) over Arizona St. (6). Harden vs Christmas will be fun to watch, but Az St hasn't really lived up to the hype.

USC (10) over Boston College (7). USC has gelled at the right time and if Gibson, Hackett, and DeRozan have a good game, they can pull this one off.

One that I am afraid to pull the trigger on:

Stephen F. Austin (14) over Syracuse (3). I believe that even with the rest, Syracuse will not be able to recover from the Big East tournament run. That being said, I don't think Stephen F. Austin will be the team to do it.

Second round upset:

West Virginia (6) over Kansas (3). Kansas doesn't have the same team as last year and West Virginia plays a very physical style of play that will give the Jayhawks problems.

Others I am afraid to pick:

Western Kentucky (11) over Gonzaga (3). I think WKU could pull this one off, but location is going to be critical in this one.

Ohio State (8) over Louisville (1). This could be a tougher game than what people expect, but the Buckeyes will have a home court advantage. Samuels and Mullens will cancel each other out and if Matta can find a way to contain Terrence Williams and Earl Clark both offensively and on the boards, Ohio State could possibly win.

Minnesota (10) over Duke (2). I know this will draw a laugh or two, but Tubby has managed to outcoach Coach K before during the NCAA tournament. Minnesota doesn't have the players Tubby had in 1998 at Kentucky, but to be honest, this Duke team isn't exactly the same one either. Again, with Gonzaga, location wins out.

I think WVRed just sneaked a peak at my bracket and stole my upsets for this post. ;)

Of those you listed, I have:

1) Arizona over Utah
2) VCU over UCLA
3) Western Kentucky over Illinois
4) USC over Boston College

I do have Arizona State over Temple though. And you didn't list it, but I have Maryland over Cal.

Of course, I also have West Virginia over Kansas, which you listed as well.

Cyclone792
03-18-2009, 03:56 PM
What do you guys think of Missouri? I've got them slated to beat Memphis, but I'm not sure if that is smart. I'm not sure why, but I really don't like Memphis. Mainly because they really haven't played many good teams.

My take on Missouri is it seems like they've struggled away from home. So with that little bit of twisted logic, I've got them getting bounced in the second round by Marquette (even with James out).

Caveat Emperor
03-18-2009, 04:03 PM
I really think its either UL or UConn who go down first, if not both. For some reason I just don't see UL going very far. Its nothing against UL I just got a gut feeling.

UL has, in my mind, the toughest road to the Elite Eight of any #1 seeds, due to the fact that they face a potential matchup with Wake Forest in the Sweet 16. Wake's been a slightly schizo team this year, but they've beaten some great teams, are battle-tested through the ACC, and can play with anyone in the country.

If any of the big seeds are going to make early exits, my money is on UL.

BuckeyeRedleg
03-18-2009, 04:19 PM
USC (#10), Arizona (#12), and Tennessee (#9) are the only lower seeded teams that aren't underdogs by Vegas.

USC -2
Tenn -2
Arizona - pk

bucksfan2
03-18-2009, 04:43 PM
UL has, in my mind, the toughest road to the Elite Eight of any #1 seeds, due to the fact that they face a potential matchup with Wake Forest in the Sweet 16. Wake's been a slightly schizo team this year, but they've beaten some great teams, are battle-tested through the ACC, and can play with anyone in the country.

If any of the big seeds are going to make early exits, my money is on UL.

I had always thought UL was a 2 seed heading into the tourny. It surprised me to see them get the #1 overall seed to say the least. And I agree they have the toughest road to the elite 8 but I think it starts in the second round. I know I am being somewhat of a homer but OSU has a team that is loaded with talent. It has underperformed but has quite a bit of top tier talent as well as a very good 3 point shooter. If they get past OSU they then could face Wake. A team that was #1 in the country at one point and again is loaded with top tier talent. In a one and done, 40 minutes all out, anything can happen especially when you play talented teams with good coaching. The bottom half of the bracket doesn't scare me as much for UL. MSU is an ok 2 seed and Kansas looks prime to be upset again, they are very young.

What do you guys think of Oklahoma. IMO Griffen was by far the best player in college basketball this season. Until his concussion, I have to admit I haven't watched him play since, they were my pick to go all the way. I just have a hard time betting against them, especially with UNC and Lawson's toe problems.

cincrazy
03-18-2009, 11:58 PM
And Louisville beat WVU and WVU stepped on and CRUSHED OSU at OSU so?

Just a little bit of light-hearted humor. Man do people get cranky REAL quick around here when it comes to anything OSU related.

WVRed
03-19-2009, 12:04 AM
I think WVRed just sneaked a peak at my bracket and stole my upsets for this post. ;)

Of those you listed, I have:

1) Arizona over Utah
2) VCU over UCLA
3) Western Kentucky over Illinois
4) USC over Boston College

I do have Arizona State over Temple though. And you didn't list it, but I have Maryland over Cal.

Of course, I also have West Virginia over Kansas, which you listed as well.

To be honest, I have three 10 seeds making it to the second round. Minnesota, Maryland, and USC. Clemson is the only 7 I have advancing.

Danny Serafini
03-19-2009, 10:32 AM
For comparison purposes, I run a small pool, I've got 44 sheets in right now, and here are some of the popular and unpopular upset picks:

In the Midwest, Arizona is getting some attention, though not quite as much as I thought. Utah is a 31-13 pick. Few people are carrying them past Wake though. Siena is getting no action for a #9, but that's to be expected with all the entries being from Ohio. USC is a slim favorite (24-20) over BC despite being the lower seed. Kansas isn't getting much of a chance against Michigan St. later on, the top two seeds seem to be holding.

In the west, the #10 is again favored over the #7 by a 24-20 vote, this time Maryland over Cal. A&M is a slight favorite over BYU despite being the lower seed. Here's a weird one, despite the well known 5/12 upset alert, and the fact that people loving calling the 12 for an upset, there isn't a single person thus far taking N. Iowa over Purdue. I've never seen a 5 so heavily favored over a 12. Utah St. is getting a fair amount of action, but not a ton. Memphis has become the overwhelming favorite to win the region, getting twice as many picks as Connecticut.

The east is looking extremely chalky. Pitt has more Final Four picks than any team in any region. Texas is a big favorite in the 7/10 game, not many believers in Minnesota. VCU is getting some first round attention, but I thought they would be a little trendier pick (it's 32-12 UCLA). A couple of upsets later on according to seeds, Florida St. has emerged as a slight favorite over Xavier, and Villanova a slight favorite over Duke.

In the south, Butler is a decent sized favorite to upset LSU in the 8/9 game. Michigan is getting little action in the 7/10 game despite the local team effect, it seems even Michigan fans aren't confident in that game. W. Kentucky is a somewhat trendy pick. Akron however is not. Usually there's at least a couple of MAC homer picks, being in the heart of MAC country here, but not a single person believes in the Zips. Temple is getting ignored, as was Dayton as the 11 in its region, no confidence in the A-10 I guess. Gonzaga is a huge favorite over Illinois later, and it's chalk from there on.

Once you get to the Final Four it's a jumble. The only thing that stands out is that Connecticut is completely unloved as a #1 seed. Only 2 out of 44 have them winning, fewer than #2 seeds Memphis and Michigan St. Louisville is the leader with 11.