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dougdirt
03-17-2009, 02:14 PM
Generally I am with the guys on their lists. I even help out with some of them, but there are some serious head scratchers on this list. I am in the middle of trying to figure out how 110 players are between Josh Vitters and Neftali Soto over on their message board. Apparently I have Red tinted glasses because I can read scouting reports that look eerily similar between the two players.

Here is the list (http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/03/16/top-200-prospect-list).



Rk Player Pos Age Org Lvl
1 Matt Wieters Pos 22.8 BAL AA
2 David Price Pos 23.5 TB MLB
3 Cameron Maybin Pos 21.9 FLA MLB
4 Colby Rasmus Pos 22.5 STL AAA
5 Dexter Fowler Pos 22.9 COL MLB
6 Madison Bumgarner Pos 19.6 SF A
7 Brett Anderson Pos 21.1 OAK AA
8 Travis Snider Pos 21.1 TOR MLB
9 Jason Heyward Pos 19.5 ATL A+
10 Pedro Alvarez Pos 22 PIT NCAA
11 Mike Moustakas Pos 20.4 KC A
12 Derek Holland Pos 22.4 TEX AA
13 Tommy Hanson Pos 22.5 ATL AA
14 Matt LaPorta Pos 24.1 CLE AA
15 Neftali Feliz Pos 20.8 TEX AA
16 Justin Smoak Pos 21.9 TEX A
17 Rick Porcello Pos 19.8 DET A+
18 Lars Anderson Pos 21.1 BOS AA
19 Jarrod Parker Pos 19.9 ARI A
20 Trevor Cahill Pos 21 OAK AA
21 Mike Stanton Pos 19.3 FLA A
22 Eric Hosmer Pos 19.3 KC R
23 Brian Matusz Pos 22 BAL NCAA
24 Buster Posey Pos 21.9 SF SS
25 Jordan Schafer Pos 22.5 ATL AA
26 Carlos Santana Pos 22.9 CLE AA
27 Yonder Alonso Pos 21.9 CIN A+
28 Jhoulys Chacin Pos 21.1 COL A+
29 Chris Tillman Pos 20.9 BAL AA
30 Logan Morrison Pos 21.5 FLA A+
31 Tim Beckham Pos 19.1 TB R
32 Gordon Beckham Pos 22.4 CHW A
33 Fernando Martinez Pos 20.4 NYM AA
34 Tim Alderson Pos 20.3 SF A+
35 Andrew McCutchen Pos 22.4 PIT AAA
36 Brett Wallace Pos 22.5 STL AA
37 Jesus Montero Pos 19.2 NYY A
38 Brett Cecil Pos 22.7 TOR AAA
39 Jordan Zimmerman Pos 22.8 WAS AA
40 Aaron Hicks Pos 19.4 MIN R
41 Carlos Carrasco Pos 21.9 PHI AAA
42 Kyle Blanks Pos 22.5 SD AA
43 Dayan Viciedo Pos 20 CHW INT
44 Jeremy Hellickson Pos 21.9 TB AA
45 Daryl Jones Pos 21.7 STL AA
46 Michael Ynoa Pos 17.4 OAK A
47 Michael Bowden Pos 22.4 BOS MLB
48 Wilmer Flores Pos 17.6 NYM R
49 Wade Davis Pos 23.5 TB AAA
50 Freddie Freeman Pos 19.2 ATL A
51 Ben Revere Pos 20.8 MIN A
52 Austin Jackson Pos 22.1 NYY AA
53 Mat Gamel Pos 23.7 MIL AA
54 Nick Weglarz Pos 21.2 CLE A+
55 Alcides Escobar Pos 22.2 MIL AA
56 Jordan Walden Pos 21.3 LAA A+
57 David Huff Pos 24.5 CLE AAA
58 Elvis Andrus Pos 20.5 TEX AA
59 Michael Main Pos 20.2 TEX A
60 Kila Ka'aihue Pos 24.9 KC MLB
61 Max Ramirez Pos 24.4 TEX MLB
62 Danny Duffy Pos 20.2 KC A
63 Matt Antonelli Pos 23.9 SD MLB
64 Aaron Poreda Pos 22.4 CHW AA
65 Josh Vitters Pos 19.5 CHC A
66 David Cooper Pos 21 TOR A+
67 Matt Dominguez Pos 19.5 FLA A
68 Nick Adenhart Pos 22.5 LAA MLB
69 Dominic Brown Pos 21.5 PHI A+
70 Jeff Samardzija Pos 24.1 CHC MLB
71 Dellin Betances Pos 20.9 NYY A
72 Phillippe Aumont Pos 20.1 SEA A
73 Gio Gonzalez Pos 23.4 OAK MLB
74 Jon Niese Pos 22.3 NYM MLB
75 Desmond Jennings Pos 22.3 TB A+
76 Jose Tabata Pos 20.5 PIT AA
77 Jeremy Jeffress Pos 21.4 MIL AA
78 Gerado Parra Pos 21.8 ARI AA
79 Tyler Flowers Pos 23.1 CHW A+
80 Chris Marrero Pos 20.7 WAS A+
81 Christian Friedrich Pos 21.6 COL NCAA
82 Adrian Cardenas Pos 21.4 OAK AA
83 Taylor Teagarden Pos 25.2 TEX MLB
84 Martin Perez Pos 17.9 ATL SS
85 Kyle Skipworth Pos 19 FLA R
86 Michael Burgess Pos 20.4 WAS A+
87 Kasey Kiker Pos 21.2 TEX A+
88 Ivan De Jesus Pos 21.8 LAD AA
89 Jack McGeary Pos 19.9 WAS R
90 Carlos Gutierrez Pos 22.4 MIN A+
91 James Simmons Pos 22.4 OAK AA
92 Brandon Allen Pos 23.1 CHW AA
93 Shairon Martis Pos 21.9 WAS MLB
94 Aaron Cunningham Pos 22.8 OAK MLB
95 Nick Evans Pos 23.1 NYM MLB
96 Greg Halman Pos 21.5 SEA AA
97 Angel Salome Pos 22.7 MIL AA
98 Chris Carter Pos 22.2 OAK A+
99 Mat Latos Pos 21.2 SD A
100 Eric Young Jr. Pos 23.8 COL AA
101 Kellen Kulbacki Pos 23.3 SD A+
102 Michael Saunders Pos 22.3 SEA AAA
103 Blake Beavan Pos 20.1 TEX A
104 Wilfredo Boscan Pos 19.3 TEX SS
105 Beau Mills Pos 22.5 CLE A+
106 Matt Tuiasosopo Pos 22.8 SEA AAA
107 Jefry Marte Pos 17.7 NYM R
108 Carlos Triunfel Pos 19 SEA A+
109 Angel Villalona Pos 18.5 SF A
110 Zach McAllister Pos 21.2 NYY A+
111 Julio Borbon Pos 23 TEX AA
112 Drew Stubbs Pos 24.4 CIN AAA
113 Brandon Erbe Pos 21.2 BAL A+
114 Todd Frazier Pos 22.2 CIN A+
115 Brett Gardner Pos 25.5 NYY MLB
116 Allan Dykstra Pos 21.8 SD A+
117 Jemile Weeks Pos 22.1 OAK A
118 Nick Barnese Pos 20.1 TB SS
119 Chris Coghlan Pos 23.7 FLA AA
120 Nolan Reimold Pos 25.4 BAL AA
121 Seth Smith Pos 26.4 COL MLB
122 Matthew Moore Pos 19.7 TB R
123 Johnny Giavotella Pos 21.6 KC R
124 Julio Teheran Pos 18.1 ATL R
125 Casper Wells Pos 24.3 DET AA
126 Chris Parmelee Pos 21 MIN A
127 Ryan Tucker Pos 22.2 FLA AA
128 Hank Conger Pos 21.1 LAA A+
129 James McDonald Pos 24.4 LAD MLB
130 Lance Lynn Pos 21.8 STL A
131 Jake Arrieta Pos 23 BAL A+
132 Brett Lawrie Pos 19.1 MIL HS
133 Randall Delgado Pos 19 ATL R
134 Jake Odorizzi Pos 18.9 MIL R
135 Ethan Martin Pos 19.7 LAD HS
136 Chris Perez Pos 23.7 STL MLB
137 Lorenzo Cain Pos 22.9 MIL AAA
138 Vincent Mazzaro Pos 22.4 OAK AAA
139 Gaby Sanchez Pos 25.5 FLA AA
140 Daniel Bard Pos 23.7 BOS AA
141 Lonnie Chisenhall Pos 20.4 CLE SS
142 Kris Medlen Pos 23.4 ATL AA
143 Hector Rondon Pos 21 CLE A+
144 Clayton Richard Pos 25.5 CHW MLB
145 Josh Donaldson Pos 23.2 OAK A+
146 Jeff Locke Pos 21.3 ATL A
147 Josh Reddick Pos 22 BOS AA
148 Mike Montgomery Pos 19.7 KC R
149 Scott Elbert Pos
150 Bryan Anderson Pos 22.2 STL AAA
151 Jeff Niemann Pos 26 TB MLB
152 Ryan Perry Pos 22 DET A+
153 Jaff Decker Pos 19 SD R
154 Andrew Lambo Pos 20.5 LAD AA
155 Jason Castro Pos 21.7 HOU SS
156 Michael Taylor Pos 23.2 PHI A+
157 Josh Fields Pos 23.5 SEA NCAA
158 Jason Donald Pos 24.5 PHI AAA
159 Trevor Reckling Pos 19.8 LAA A
160 Che-Hsuan Lin Pos 20.4 BOS A
161 Ryan Westmoreland Pos 18.8 BOS HS
162 Cole Gillespie Pos 24.7 MIL AA
163 Reid Brignac Pos 23.1 TB AAA
164 Carlos Rosa Pos 24.4 KC AAA
165 Gorkys Hernandez Pos 21.5 ATL A+
166 Engel Beltre Pos 19.3 TEX A
167 Michael Pineda Pos 20.1 SEA A
168 Jess Todd Pos 22.9 STL AAA
169 Jairo Heredia Pos 19.4 NYY A
170 Daniel Schlereth Pos 22.8 ARI A
171 J.P. Arencibia Pos 23.1 TOR AA
172 Cole Rohrbough Pos 21.8 ATL A+
173 Junichi Tazawa Pos 22.7 BOS INT
174 Neftali Soto Pos 20 CIN A
175 Kyle Lobstein Pos 19.5 TB HS
176 J.A. Happ Pos 26.4 PHI MLB
177 Jeremy McBryde Pos 21.8 SD A
178 John Raynor Pos 25.1 FLA AA
179 Conor Gillaspie Pos 21.6 SF MLB
180 Nick Noonan Pos 19.8 SF A
181 Richard Castillo Pos 19.3 STL A+
182 Brett DeVall Pos 19.1 ATL R
183 Marcus Lemon Pos 20.7 TEX A+
184 Kevin Mulvey Pos 23.8 MIN AAA
185 Jason Motte Pos 26 STL MLB
186 Brad Lincoln Pos 23.8 PIT A+
187 Sean Doolittle Pos 22.4 OAK AA
188 Jose Ceda Pos 22.1 FLA AA
189 Joshua Lindblom Pos 21.7 LAD AA
190 William Smith Pos 19.6 LAA R
191 Will Inman Pos 22.1 SD AA
192 Mark Trumbo Pos 23.1 LAA AA
193 Kelvin De La Cruz Pos 21.1 CLE AA
194 Tim Melville Pos 19.4 KC HS
195 Michael Brantley Pos 21.8 CLE AA
196 Austin Romine Pos 20.3 NYY A
197 Chris Withrow Pos 19.9 LAD A+
198 Cedric Hunter Pos 21 SD A+
199 Ike Davis Pos 21.9 NYM SS
200 Andrew Cashner Pos 22.5 CHC SS

camisadelgolf
03-17-2009, 02:18 PM
Thanks for posting that. Yeah, there are some head-scratchers, but overall, it has to be one of the better lists I've seen.

JKam
03-17-2009, 02:46 PM
Where is Elvis Andrus, the Texas shortstop that a lot of the board members are infatuated with?

dougdirt
03-17-2009, 02:51 PM
Where is Elvis Andrus, the Texas shortstop that a lot of the board members are infatuated with?

At #58 where he should be. The kid just doesn't have the bat to be much higher than that. He won't hit 10 HR's in a major league season and contrary to reports that his defense is something special.... its not. Its quite good, but he isn't a Gold Glover either.

Mario-Rijo
03-17-2009, 06:54 PM
At #58 where he should be. The kid just doesn't have the bat to be much higher than that. He won't hit 10 HR's in a major league season and contrary to reports that his defense is something special.... its not. Its quite good, but he isn't a Gold Glover either.

Actually I'd rank DeJesus above him but that's because I'll take a (solid if not spectacular) all around player to an alledgedly spectacular but fairly one dimensional type. I think you and I see Andrus roughly the same way, although I do believe he is GG capable especially if Jeter and Young are. However GG capable and legitimate GG's are not the same thing and furthermore "special" is yet again something different. That's not too say I don't think he's a legit GG type but I don't buy he's "special" just yet, nor do I with anyone until I see it with my own eyes. However his offense isn't likely to ever be all that great unless his plate discipline changes or he bulks up some.

GG capable: Michael Young (mostly on the strength that the writers don't understand fielding is more than not making errors)
GG caliber: Alex Gonzales (a younger Gonzo I mean)
Special: Ozzie Smith, Barry Larkin, Omar Vizquel (some may not agree about Barry being in the same company with Vizquel and Ozzie but he was, they were all very similiar but had slightly different ultimate strengths)

I kind of like to break down what makes a particular player by what skills they need to be special and then rate each skill 1-10.

Ozzie - Range 10+, Hand-Eye Coordination 10+, Arm Strength 7, Release 8, Accuracy 10, Balance 10+, Positioning 10, Overall defensive acumen 10+, Instincts 10+

Vizquel - (See Ozzie but with a quicker more compact release say 8.5 - 9 and 10+ accuracy)

Larkin - Range 9.5, Hand-Eye 9, Arm Strength 9.5, Release 9, Accuracy 10, Balance 9, Positioning 10, Acumen 10, Instincts 10+

A 10+ Arm strength would be Shawon Dunston, maybe a Jose Reyes qualifies too haven't seen enough 2 be sure.

I'd be really interested to hear how Andrus ranks at this young age in those categories.

RedsManRick
03-17-2009, 10:23 PM
At #58 where he should be. The kid just doesn't have the bat to be much higher than that. He won't hit 10 HR's in a major league season and contrary to reports that his defense is something special.... its not. Its quite good, but he isn't a Gold Glover either.

Given his speed and decent willingness to take a walk (given his age), that profile sounds a lot like Brian Roberts.

dougdirt
03-17-2009, 10:27 PM
Given his speed and decent willingness to take a walk (given his age), that profile sounds a lot like Brian Roberts.

Except Brian Roberts has the ability to hit you 45-50 doubles with his 10 HR... Andrus is likely to give you 20-30 doubles with his 5 HR. Those walks will dry up when pitchers know he isn't any kind of threat.

Kingspoint
03-18-2009, 07:18 PM
We know how good Soto is (he's an uber-stud), and it's not from the rose-colored glasses that so many wore when they looked at Austin Kearns.

dougdirt
03-18-2009, 08:06 PM
We know how good Soto is (he's an uber-stud), and it's not from the rose-colored glasses that so many wore when they looked at Austin Kearns.

Austin Kearns was a great prospect and who knows what would have happened had he been able to avoid the shoulder injury.

bucksfan2
03-19-2009, 08:36 AM
Austin Kearns was a great prospect and who knows what would have happened had he been able to avoid the shoulder injury.

Im trying to remember the Kearns time line. He was a good prospect, an uber prospect to us Reds fans. Not only was he the first "good" prospect to almost make his way through the system, but he also was a local boy. He has some serious flaws with his swing, yet tore apart baseball for a time during his rookie season.

Most contribute his downfall to Ray King but I wonder how much the league had caught up to him? He had a very long swing and did some weird wrist action thing. He also got fat during his time as a Red. To me he just seemed content being the player he was. Its a shame because all us Reds fans had such high hope.

Kingspoint
03-19-2009, 05:07 PM
Im trying to remember the Kearns time line. He was a good prospect, an uber prospect to us Reds fans. Not only was he the first "good" prospect to almost make his way through the system, but he also was a local boy. He has some serious flaws with his swing, yet tore apart baseball for a time during his rookie season.

Most contribute his downfall to Ray King but I wonder how much the league had caught up to him? He had a very long swing and did some weird wrist action thing. He also got fat during his time as a Red. To me he just seemed content being the player he was. Its a shame because all us Reds fans had such high hope.


In other words....just a flash in the pan...not even a Mark Fidyrich(sp?).

TRF
03-20-2009, 07:27 PM
Im trying to remember the Kearns time line. He was a good prospect, an uber prospect to us Reds fans. Not only was he the first "good" prospect to almost make his way through the system, but he also was a local boy. He has some serious flaws with his swing, yet tore apart baseball for a time during his rookie season.

Most contribute his downfall to Ray King but I wonder how much the league had caught up to him? He had a very long swing and did some weird wrist action thing. He also got fat during his time as a Red. To me he just seemed content being the player he was. Its a shame because all us Reds fans had such high hope.

Yep. he put on a lot of weight. He lost a ton of speed and power. And it all happened after Ray King destroyed his shoulder. It's all coulda, shoulda, woulda.

I really hope he is healthy and plays fulltime this year. In a way, his story is similar to Sean Casey's: Great talent, so-so health.

As for Andrus or even Andino, how do they stack up against the Reds SS prospects, Janish and Valaika? defensively that is.

Patrick Bateman
03-20-2009, 08:15 PM
I personally never thought Kearns was a big deal.

But obviously, not everyone is born with the same high player evaluation skills as I.

stock
03-21-2009, 10:12 PM
It is very sad to say this but unfortunately, far too often a guy wins the GG because of his offense, not his defense. If Young were really a gold glove SS would the Rangers move him to 3B? The sportswriters who vote for the GG obviously either don't take it serious (and they should), don't pay attention or don't really know how to differentiate good defense from average defense.

Two great examples of the writers not having a clue include Volquez finishing 4th in the rookie of the year award even though he wasn't a rookie and Rafeal Palmerio winning the GG one year even though he spent most of the year as the Ranger DH.

blumj
03-23-2009, 07:52 AM
I don't really know why they never fell into the habit of just giving the AL SS GG to Orlando Cabrera every year. Would have been the easy way out of having to think about it at all.

edabbs44
03-23-2009, 08:21 AM
We know how good Soto is (he's an uber-stud), and it's not from the rose-colored glasses that so many wore when they looked at Austin Kearns.

How come walk-taking ability matters with every player except Soto?

nate
03-23-2009, 12:05 PM
How come walk-taking ability matters with every player except Soto?

It does?

Where has this point been made?

OnBaseMachine
03-23-2009, 12:08 PM
It does?

Where has this point been made?

I was wondering the same thing myself...

TRF
03-23-2009, 12:46 PM
Soto needs to be able to take a BB. However, if he can hit .340, I won't mind if he only BB's 50 times a year.

He just needs to learn to BB 50 times a year now. :)

dougdirt
03-23-2009, 02:18 PM
How come walk-taking ability matters with every player except Soto?

It matters less with Soto because he doesn't strike out much and with his power, he could be a guy who hits .300 year in and year out, meaning he can draw fewer walks and still OBP .350. Where a guy striking out more (Juan Francisco for example) is going to hit you .275 and is going to need to walk a lot more to OBP .350.

dougdirt
03-23-2009, 02:21 PM
BTW here is what I have come up with over at Project Prospect by talking to the guys re Vitters/Soto

1. Neftali Soto and Josh Vitters have extremely similar scouting reports. They admit to such in their most recent podcast.

2. Neftali Soto has a higher floor than Josh Vitters. Admitted to on their message board.

3. One guy felt that Neftali Soto was a Top 100 prospect. Admitted to on their message board.

With all of that, Soto still found himself at #176 overall and 109 spots behind Josh Vitters. This is a case where we said something without looking into it much and now that we have been shown otherwise we are going to defend our stuff to the end despite actually knowing we are incorrect.

edabbs44
03-23-2009, 02:23 PM
It matters less with Soto because he doesn't strike out much and with his power, he could be a guy who hits .300 year in and year out, meaning he can draw fewer walks and still OBP .350. Where a guy striking out more (Juan Francisco for example) is going to hit you .275 and is going to need to walk a lot more to OBP .350.

Hopefully that is the case.

Mario-Rijo
03-24-2009, 03:32 PM
Soto needs to be able to take a BB. However, if he can hit .340, I won't mind if he only BB's 50 times a year.

He just needs to learn to BB 50 times a year now. :)

I know you are being a bit sarcastic but not too many ever hit .340 and BB 50 times. Of those guys I believe they are all in the HOF or should be. That said I'm not sure we'll get a really good read on him for a year or more, once his name gets around real good and they stop throwing meatballs to him.

Oxilon
03-25-2009, 12:14 PM
It matters less with Soto because he doesn't strike out much and with his power, he could be a guy who hits .300 year in and year out, meaning he can draw fewer walks and still OBP .350. Where a guy striking out more (Juan Francisco for example) is going to hit you .275 and is going to need to walk a lot more to OBP .350.

I thought strikeouts don't matter?

dougdirt
03-25-2009, 01:58 PM
I thought strikeouts don't matter?

It depends on the context of the question. They matter in terms of what your batting average is likely to be. They don't matter in terms of ones overall production.

*BaseClogger*
06-07-2009, 02:26 PM
Josh Vitters update at A Peoria: 194 ABs, .351/.392/.613

cincyinco
06-07-2009, 09:47 PM
I have to ask, is soto still as good of a prospects as Josh vitters?

;)

OnBaseMachine
06-07-2009, 09:48 PM
I have to ask, is soto still as good of a prospects as Josh vitters?

;)

I believe so. Vitters is playing at a lower level than Soto. Who knows what type of numbers Soto would be putting up if he repeated the Midwest League.

edabbs44
06-07-2009, 10:04 PM
I believe so. Vitters is playing at a lower level than Soto. Who knows what type of numbers Soto would be putting up if he repeated the Midwest League.

We do know what kind of numbers he put up in his age 19 season, however. Which is where Vitters currently is.

OnBaseMachine
06-07-2009, 10:16 PM
.326/.343/.500 - .843 as a 19-year old last year. Not too shabby

If Soto had repeated the MWL, my guess is he would have a .900+ OPS right now. He wouldn't have as many homers as Vitters does though. Vitters has the more mature frame as of right now, while Soto still has plenty of filling out to do (6-foot-2, 180).

dougdirt
06-08-2009, 12:45 AM
Re Vitters and Soto

The only thing worth paying attention to with either guy is their strikeouts and walks. We all know they have the power, the key is going to be can they keep their K/BB at 4.00 or below? Without that ability the odds of them ever being average major league hitters is extremely low.