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Kingspoint
03-18-2009, 06:55 PM
Here's why.....

I think I'm being pretty conservative here....

Volquez....................17 Wins
Harang.....................16 Wins
Arroyo......................13 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................8 Wins
Bailey.........................5 Wins

That right there is 71 Wins. I expect the remaining Pitchers that will put in significant time with the team to average 2 Wins each.

Nick Masset (R)............2 Wins
Daryl Thompson (R).......2 Wins
Francisco Cordero (R)....2 Wins
Jared Burton (R)...........2 Wins
David Weathers (R).......2 Wins
Arthur Rhodes (L).........2 Wins
Bill Bray (L)..................2 Wins
Mike Lincoln (R)............2 Wins
Ramon Ramirez (R)........2 Wins
Josh Roenicke (R).........2 Wins
Aaron Fultz (L).............2 Wins
Daniel Herrera (L)..........2 Wins

That's another 24 wins for a total of 95 Wins. And, I thought those were very conservative estimates. I see about 5 wins from Daryl Thompson. Harang may not get 8 wins, so a big dropoff could go there. Volquez might not win 10 games, so a big dropoff could go there.

But, my point is that our starting pitchers are among the 7 best staffs in all of baseball.

If I wanted to be really conservative and account for possible injuries and poor hitting, I could go like this:

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins

But, that's still 67 Wins, and assuming the remaining pitchers average 2 Wins each that would still add 22 Wins to the 67 for a Total of 89 Wins.

We are last year's Arizona Diamondbacks. Outstanding Starting pitching every game without a ton of power and a lot of youth in the lineup.

They threw 9 shutouts. They were shutout 6 times themselves. They led their division for 136 Days, before fading. Their longest losing streak was 6. Their longest winning streak was 8. They got off to a red-hot start and were 20-8 (lost 2 of 3 to the REDS Opening Weekend) at the end of April, before finishing 82-80, 2 games out of 1st place as Miracle Manny overtook them. (They went 4-15 from Aug 22-Sep 14)

With our great starting pitching, we have a really great chance to have a really fast start.

wojo1025
03-18-2009, 07:44 PM
Unfortunately as it looks right now, I'll take the under on Harang

Jerome
03-18-2009, 07:44 PM
or worst case scenario...

Volquez--13
Harang--9
Arroyo--10
Cueto--10
4th combined--8

50 Wins + the 24 relief wins = 74 wins (coincedentally last years win total)

So, your conservative best case scenario of 95 wins and my worst case scenario (a scenario I've gotten used to in Cincinnati) of 74 wins averaged out and totalled is.......

84.5 wins

I would say it's pretty realistic for us to finish under 85 wins. But I like what you've done. It does give me more hope. But should one set oneself up for failure? Not my style.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

JBChance
03-18-2009, 09:32 PM
or worst case scenario...

Volquez--13
Harang--9
Arroyo--10
Cueto--10
4th combined--8

50 Wins + the 24 relief wins = 74 wins (coincedentally last years win total)

So, your conservative best case scenario of 95 wins and my worst case scenario (a scenario I've gotten used to in Cincinnati) of 74 wins averaged out and totalled is.......

84.5 wins

I would say it's pretty realistic for us to finish under 85 wins. But I like what you've done. It does give me more hope. But should one set oneself up for failure? Not my style.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

You've hit it on the head if Harang has a year like I'm afraid he will. If he bounces back to the 16 wins, we'll hit the 85 win mark.

terminator
03-18-2009, 10:29 PM
Well, if you want to analyze it by pitcher wins (and I wouldn't), I wouldn't call it conservative. I'd call it extremely optimistic. Last year we had two pitchers with double digit win figures. One of them (Arroyo 15-11) had an awful ERA (4.77) that was the same as (6-17) Harang. Even your "conservative" scenario has all pitchers #1-#5 at double digit wins. That's not a conservative scenario.

FWIW, there were 40 pitchers in the NL who won 10+ games last year. 15 teams of course. Only 24 NL pitchers had 12 or more wins (which is the minimum you are projecting for our #1 to #5 spots).

But it is spring and I am getting hopeful too . . . I think the pitching is pretty good but I don't know how the offense will be. It seems like they should be improved when I think about the positions and player development, but I remember some painful low scoring games after Dunn and Griffey departed.

mroby85
03-18-2009, 10:34 PM
Unfortunately as it looks right now, I'll take the under on Harang

I agree, I'm starting to wonder about Harang. I look for Edinson to have a solid year, but 17 is tough to expect. I could see Cueto with more than 12 however.

jmac
03-18-2009, 10:35 PM
The original posters projections look good. However, sometimes the "wins" may depend on run support/ Blown saves etc.
Example is last season, Harang should have had a few more wins early but got little run support. Cueto as well.

I will be happy though with the original projections. ;)

redsfan1966
03-18-2009, 10:40 PM
i like your enthusiasm....but it is very possible for this team to finish under 85 wins....Volquez ends up with the sophomore jinx....injuries.....BPhill tanks as the clean up hitter....Encarnacion continues to underachieve...

Roush's socks
03-18-2009, 11:40 PM
Trying to project a team's record this way is not effective. A better way is to project how many runs the team will score, based on the projected lineup, and how many they will give up. Then use the Pythagorean formula to project W/L. If the Reds have good defense, team speed, "baseball IQ", clutch factor, etc; they might finish with a record slightly better than the Pythagorean.

That methgod is also more or less meaningless. No one really knows if Jay Bruce is going to be 34/105/.295 or 21/81/.275. And no knows if Volquez is going to be as good as last year, or even better, or the sophomore jinx. Cueto is a HUGE unknown. On the one hand he has maybe the best stuff on the staff. But he wasn't really all that good last year.

I am excited to watch a little baseball this year and I hope the Reds win some games.

BearcatShane
03-19-2009, 12:01 AM
The Reds are going to break through this streak sometime. 2009? Why not.

Nasty_Boy
03-19-2009, 12:27 AM
Volquez....................17 Wins
Harang.....................16 Wins
Arroyo......................13 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................8 Wins
Bailey.........................5 Wins


If that happens I'll never post again... Also, you gotta watch that drunk posting. :D

BluegrassRedleg
03-19-2009, 01:01 AM
I'm quite confident in those pitchers you list. It's Tavares and Dickerson that hold the key to going 85+ IMO.

JBChance
03-19-2009, 01:30 AM
If that happens I'll never post again... Also, you gotta watch that drunk posting. :D

Friends don't let friends post drunk. :p:

Moosie52
03-19-2009, 07:31 AM
To have 4 pitchers win over 10 games each will never happen. It just won't.

dunner13
03-19-2009, 08:18 AM
Yeh those projections are a little high, I think our pitchers may pitch well enough to win that many games but if our offense doesnt score run it wont matter. i could see alot of 1-0, 2-1 type of games this year.

ChatterRed
03-19-2009, 08:25 AM
The pitching hasn't been that great lately. I would hold back my optimism if I were you.

xavr1
03-19-2009, 08:47 AM
I love the optimism, I really do. But the one thing that wasnt accounted for was injury. Yes, those numbers COULD happen. But it doesnt account for the inevitable injury bug that rears its head each year.

I think the wins number this year, if everything goes as good as possible is in the 85-90 range. More realistically, we are looking at low 80s.

That said, this is the time of year for optimism, so I love the post!!

Ghosts of 1990
03-19-2009, 09:00 AM
Unfortunately as it looks right now, I'll take the under on Harang

+1.

He'll probably never win 16 again.

Ghosts of 1990
03-19-2009, 09:02 AM
The Reds are going to break through this streak sometime. 2009? Why not.

I hope your right but Vegas says 78.5 wins. There's a lot of nice casinos in Vegas. Those didn't get there from them being wrong.

UC_Ken
03-19-2009, 01:18 PM
There is not enough power in the lineup to get 85 wins unless EE takes a gian leap forward to .280/.370/.480. I say EE because he's the only thing even capable of becoming a middle of the order right handed hitter. Speed is great but to borrow an overused cliche you can't steal first.

Brian
03-19-2009, 01:33 PM
I think it's nice to have a conversation about how the Reds could be this year's Rays, that's what spring is for. I'd be content though if the team just showed a solid step forward and the 25 they break with and the other 8-10 that will probably add value along the way should be good enough to do just that. They might get lucky, and that would be great, but if this team can turn 83-85 wins, I'd be very happy and excited about 2010.

Kingspoint
03-19-2009, 04:30 PM
I hope your right but Vegas says 78.5 wins. There's a lot of nice casinos in Vegas. Those didn't get there from them being wrong.

Oh, yes. I've won many over/under season win totals from them. You've just got to do it when you you know more about the team than they do. This is one of those cases. It doesn't come up very often. Last year, I predicted within 2 games (as most did on this board) of the exact win total of the REDS. There weren't the intangibles that there are this year. And, if anything is going to allow a team to over-achieve, it's strong pitching and strong defense. This team has strong pitching and good defense. Last year they had average pitching and poor defense. 6 of the 8 defensive positions will improve this season, and the 2 that won't are at a gold-glove or near gold-glove level already, Centerfield and Second Base.

That number is also going to rise from the 78.5, if it hasn't already. I have to assume that earlier in the year it was even less than the 78.5. Not too many betters are taking the under on that bet.

Ask Bailey, Owings, Thompson, Cueto, Harang and Arroyo if they would individually be dissapointed if they "only" won as many games as projected. I think you would get a "Yes" from each of them.

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins

wojo1025
03-19-2009, 04:33 PM
I would hope each would be disappointed if they didn't win 20+. I'd hate for a pitcher in our rotation to be anything LESS than disappointed if they only won 6 or 7 games

$1 Hot Dog
03-19-2009, 04:38 PM
Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins


I think those are good predictions. I think Volquez is right about there, and that is about how many Arroyo seems to end up winning every year. The only changes could be if either Owings or Bailey have awesome seasons and man that 5th spot the entire year.. they could get more. Harange at 13 wins is probably pretty accurate going by his overall track record but he could be either higher or lower. The biggest question mark for wins IMO is Cueto. His stuff is nasty. He didn't do all that good last year, but I hear all the time on the radio that his stuff is better than Volquez's. If he matures some this year and can get himself a little more under control I can definitely see him having the season that Volquez did last year. I think him and Volquez both have the potential if not this year then sometime soon to win 20 games.

Kingspoint
03-19-2009, 04:54 PM
Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins


That's also only 11 wins per month for this group (66 Wins/6 Months and 1 Win in Oct).

But, because the season starts a week later this year because of the WBC and April and May always have it's off days anyway, I look for:

April/May.........19 Wins.
June/July.........23 Wins.
Aug/Sep..........23 Wins.
Oct..................1 Win.

So, they should be on track to reach those 67 Wins if it looks similar to this at the end of May:

Volquez......................4 Wins
Harang.......................4 Wins
Arroyo........................4 Wins
Cueto.........................3 Wins
Owings.......................3 Wins
Bailey.........................1 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins

Starter Totals for Apr/May........19 Wins (Though Bailey may not get his from starting)

TheNext44
03-19-2009, 04:56 PM
Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins

This really is not the best way to project a teams win total, since individual pitchers don't have that much control over the games that they win.

However, I think this does show how valuable starting pitching is. If you have five strong arms in the rotation, and they perform to their ability, it makes a winning season much easier. The offense still matters, just not as much.

Kingspoint
03-19-2009, 05:02 PM
This really is not the best way to project a teams win total, since individual pitchers don't have that much control over the games that they win.

However, I think this does show how valuable starting pitching is. If you have five strong arms in the rotation, and they perform to their ability, it makes a winning season much easier. The offense still matters, just not as much.


Yeah, I know....not really trying to show the best way to figure it out....just having fun with the strength of the team. I'm really impressed at how good it is. I'm turning 50 in June and this is the best starting pitching I've seen on a REDS team for the 40 years that I've followed them closely. We've never been able to develop our own pitching, and I still don't know if we can, but the trades that brought Thompson, Volquez, Arroyo, and Harang here, combined with the two home-grown players in Cueto and Bailey, have made it pretty cool to be a REDS' fan again. I'm OK with Jockety, but I sure wish we still had Krivsky.

xavr1
03-20-2009, 10:31 AM
If Hal McCoy is right, and Harang's stuff looks bad, I dont think we can slate him for a guaranteed 15 wins at all.

Chris Sabowned
03-20-2009, 11:06 AM
I'm sorry but I don't see Harang getting 15 wins this year. He still just doesn't look right. And how can you give so many wins to guys that aren't even on the roster.

I think the numbers you put up there will be possible to obtain but they do not represent a conservative estimate.

jmac
03-20-2009, 05:05 PM
If Hal McCoy is right, and Harang's stuff looks bad, I dont think we can slate him for a guaranteed 15 wins at all.
Has anyone heard what speed Harang is throwing so far ?
I remember the game at Chicago last year where he didnt get much over 88 the entire game.

gedred69
03-20-2009, 09:18 PM
Has anyone heard what speed Harang is throwing so far ?
I remember the game at Chicago last year where he didnt get much over 88 the entire game.

He's occasionally tagging 91, and a 92 couple of times. Saw him pitch last week, he did not impress. Dunno, maybe the weight he lost helped his velocity! Truthfully, he seemed to have maybe lost his confidence, and is pitching tenative.

jmac
03-20-2009, 11:21 PM
He's occasionally tagging 91, and a 92 couple of times. Saw him pitch last week, he did not impress. Dunno, maybe the weight he lost helped his velocity! Truthfully, he seemed to have maybe lost his confidence, and is pitching tenative.

Thanks for info. Hopefully it is "just" confidence and not something physical.

Kingspoint
03-20-2009, 11:39 PM
I think the numbers you put up there will be possible to obtain but they do not represent a conservative estimate.

All of those guys are projected to pitch significant time at the Major League level this year, at least enough to get two wins.

CesarGeronimo
03-21-2009, 02:59 PM
Great to see that Dusty has his regular season lineup out there today against the Pirates with the two guys worst at getting on base, Taveras and Gonzalez, batting 1-2. I, for one, will be surprised if this lineup produces 80 wins. The pitching should be better, but not good enough to overcome a below average group of hitters with a lineup that has its worst hitters at the top of the order.

NeilHamburger
03-21-2009, 03:05 PM
Any concern over the fact that the reds aren't only losing recently, but just being dominated and looking outclassed by teams? I mean this offense looks really really terrible. If Bruce and EE have off years this could very well be the worst offense in baseball, and this could be a historically bad team.

Kingspoint
03-21-2009, 03:54 PM
Any concern over the fact that the reds aren't only losing recently, but just being dominated and looking outclassed by teams? I mean this offense looks really really terrible. If Bruce and EE have off years this could very well be the worst offense in baseball, and this could be a historically bad team.

There is no way under any scenario where EE will have an off-year. You can put that concern aside. He's not a qeustion mark any more than Votto is a question mark. He'll have an OPS of over .800 that will rank no worse than 4th best on the team.

There are about two dozen question marks that are bigger on this team than whether or not EE has an off year.

Driver62
03-21-2009, 04:58 PM
I'll give you my view of the Reds. I've been following them since the 1940's and this is my take from what I've seen so far in ST.

I know it's ST but Harang and Arroyo haven't shown me anything to think they'll win 10-15 games this year. Cordero is getting lit up like a high school kid. I think his ERA is around 18.00.

Tavaras hasn't shown me anything except how to not get on base and Keppinger was hitting below the Mendoza line the last I heard.

I'm not sure that Gonzales is healthy enough to play on an every day basis and it seems the alternative is Keppinger.

Add in Dusty, who I think is a very poor manager, and the Reds will be lucky to win 80 games this year...75 is more likely.

As I said before, it's ST but I haven't seen anything to make me optimistic for the coming season. I hope I'm wrong as I love the Reds but I've seen optimism in ST before and then watched the team fall on it's face during the season.

Just my take and I'm sure the homers will jump on me but that's the way I see it.

CesarGeronimo
03-21-2009, 06:35 PM
There is no way under any scenario where EE will have an off-year. You can put that concern aside. He's not a qeustion mark any more than Votto is a question mark. He'll have an OPS of over .800 that will rank no worse than 4th best on the team.

There are about two dozen question marks that are bigger on this team than whether or not EE has an off year.

OK, fascinating, why is it that Edwin, who has a career OPS of .801, could not have an off-year or slip below .800 this year like he's done in two of his four major league seasons so far? I'm not saying he will, but I'm curious about why you're so confident that he won't.

jmac
03-21-2009, 07:03 PM
Any concern over the fact that the reds aren't only losing recently, but just being dominated and looking outclassed by teams? I mean this offense looks really really terrible. If Bruce and EE have off years this could very well be the worst offense in baseball, and this could be a historically bad team.


The losing in ST doesnt bother me but I would rather see wins even if regs arent in games.

As far as hitting, yes it seems as of now, that it is a concern but we all have seen how things can change drastically come opening day (for the better and worse)

Also Dusty has been doing a few little things that he probably wouldnt do when season starts such as starting Dickerson vs Lefties and Gomes vs Righties.

Bruce has been hitting the ball better recently and his last two starts have been facing lefties.

BLEEDS
03-22-2009, 04:00 PM
Change the word "Win" to "Lose" and I'll agree with you...

I don't know if I'd use pitcher wins as a variable, but if I were to assume those wins, you might think the ERA's of these guys would have to be:


Volquez....................2.15 ERA
Harang.....................2.40 ERA
Arroyo......................3.12 ERA
Cueto.......................3.52 ERA
Owings.......................4.00 ERA
Bailey.........................4.00 ERA

Then, they might get those win totals. Our offense is going to average about 4.3 runs a game at best, with a lot of 1 and 2 run games, so in order to keep us in those games our pitchers are going to have to be near the top in the NL in order to get us close to .500

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
03-22-2009, 10:01 PM
+1.

He'll probably never win 16 again.

You can step away from the ledge now.

Kingspoint
03-22-2009, 10:05 PM
OK, fascinating, why is it that Edwin, who has a career OPS of .801, could not have an off-year or slip below .800 this year like he's done in two of his four major league seasons so far? I'm not saying he will, but I'm curious about why you're so confident that he won't.

Because of the 10,000+ players that have played baseball, 98% of them that will end up with as many career at-bats as EE will end up with have an increase in production from the age EE was beginning last season to the age EE wil be beginning this season. I see no reason why he'll be the rare 2% exception. And most of that increase is in the form of 10% or more. I expect his OPS to be at least 10% greater than it was in the 2008 season.

CesarGeronimo
03-22-2009, 11:16 PM
Because of the 10,000+ players that have played baseball, 98% of them that will end up with as many career at-bats as EE will end up with have an increase in production from the age EE was beginning last season to the age EE wil be beginning this season. I see no reason why he'll be the rare 2% exception. And most of that increase is in the form of 10% or more. I expect his OPS to be at least 10% greater than it was in the 2008 season.

Wait now, are you saying that 98% of players have a better season when they are 26 than the season they had when they were 25? Where are you getting that from?

Kingspoint
03-25-2009, 07:23 PM
Wait now, are you saying that 98% of players have a better season when they are 26 than the season they had when they were 25? Where are you getting that from?
No. I didn't say that. I said that of the pool of as many players that have had as many career at-bats as EE will end up having. And, the data comes from 20+ years of Bill James' Annuals.

JBChance
03-26-2009, 03:03 AM
No. I didn't say that. I said that of the pool of as many players that have had as many career at-bats as EE will end up having. And, the data comes from 20+ years of Bill James' Annuals.

How do you know or project how many career AB's EdE will have? Just curious.

TheNext44
03-27-2009, 02:23 PM
This is from MLBTR:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/03/gammons-on-pitching-shortages.html


The theme of Peter Gammons' latest blog post: almost every team needs pitching. One GM told Gammons, "Other than the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Marlins and Twins, everyone is looking for pitching, at least affordable pitching." Most of the clubs with possible surpluses are thought to be hoarding arms.

I think this emphasis Kingspoint's point. When was the last time the Reds were included with the Red Sox and Yankees in any positive list of teams? And especially about pitching? Who knows how many games the Reds will win this year, but it is hard not to be impressed with the pitching staff.

BTW, Gammons also says in his blog that the Brewers might have to use Todd Coffey as there closer for part of this year. Great news for him, but not a good sign for the Brewers.

Kingspoint
03-27-2009, 07:25 PM
How do you know or project how many career AB's EdE will have? Just curious.

Very easy. (Over 1000 hours of reading Bill James' Annuals and books and research like it has made it easier, though. If you can ever find any of the rare copies of his first 4 Annuals, they are some of the best reading you'll ever do, if you absolutely love baseball.) Based upon his age, how many at-bats he has up to this point, what his OPS' have been each season. He's just now entering his prime years for the next 3-4 seasons, and then he'll have a 3-4 season downswing, and then one more good year that matches his 3-4 year peak season, and then 1 to 1-1/2 bad seasons, and then he'll be gone. So, take his at-bats he has up to now and multiply it by about 3.5, and that will be approximately his total career at-bats.

This pattern has repeated itself for over 100 years with over 10,000 players. The only thing that's changed it are those players that have used steroids.

Kingspoint
03-27-2009, 07:29 PM
This is from MLBTR:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/03/gammons-on-pitching-shortages.html



I think this emphasis Kingspoint's point. When was the last time the Reds were included with the Red Sox and Yankees in any positive list of teams? And especially about pitching? Who knows how many games the Reds will win this year, but it is hard not to be impressed with the pitching staff.

BTW, Gammons also says in his blog that the Brewers might have to use Todd Coffey as there closer for part of this year. Great news for him, but not a good sign for the Brewers.

Don't forget, I'm just having fun with the "Wins" category. In no way shape or form are Wins predictable in any one season from a pitcher's potential performance.

I also saw that Coffey has had an outstanding Spring. Last time I looked he had a 15/3 K/BB ratio, or something very close to that.

Kingspoint
04-30-2009, 06:05 PM
Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins


That's also only 11 wins per month for this group (66 Wins/6 Months and 1 Win in Oct).

But, because the season starts a week later this year because of the WBC and April and May always have it's off days anyway, I look for:

April/May.........19 Wins.
June/July.........23 Wins.
Aug/Sep..........23 Wins.
Oct..................1 Win.

So, they should be on track to reach those 67 Wins if it looks similar to this at the end of May:

Volquez......................4 Wins
Harang.......................4 Wins
Arroyo........................4 Wins
Cueto.........................3 Wins
Owings.......................3 Wins
Bailey.........................1 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins

Starter Totals for Apr/May........19 Wins (Though Bailey may not get his from starting)


I think we're on track for this to happen by the end of May. We played 21 games in April. We'll play 28 games in May (14H, 14R).

So far, through those 21 games (3/7th's of the Apr/May games):

Volquez......................3 Wins
Harang.......................2 Wins
Arroyo........................3 Wins
Cueto.........................1 Wins
Owings.......................1 Wins
Bailey.........................0 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins

Where we haven't done well is Wins by the Relievers. We only have 1 Win from our Relievers. Masset has it.

With some improved hitting (Rosales, Phillips), then we can start to get some more wins by our Relievers, too.

I see us going 17-11 or 18-10 in May.

cbowen2112
04-30-2009, 06:48 PM
I see a 90 win team on the field for most games, and then a 74 win team on others. I wish they would balance it out better. As long as we beat the Cards a few times, I think we will be fine.

Captain Hook
04-30-2009, 08:08 PM
Here's why.....

I think I'm being pretty conservative here....

Volquez....................17 Wins
Harang.....................16 Wins
Arroyo......................13 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................8 Wins
Bailey.........................5 Wins

That right there is 71 Wins. I expect the remaining Pitchers that will put in significant time with the team to average 2 Wins each.

Nick Masset (R)............2 Wins
Daryl Thompson (R).......2 Wins
Francisco Cordero (R)....2 Wins
Jared Burton (R)...........2 Wins
David Weathers (R).......2 Wins
Arthur Rhodes (L).........2 Wins
Bill Bray (L)..................2 Wins
Mike Lincoln (R)............2 Wins
Ramon Ramirez (R)........2 Wins
Josh Roenicke (R).........2 Wins
Aaron Fultz (L).............2 Wins
Daniel Herrera (L)..........2 Wins

That's another 24 wins for a total of 95 Wins. And, I thought those were very conservative estimates. I see about 5 wins from Daryl Thompson. Harang may not get 8 wins, so a big dropoff could go there. Volquez might not win 10 games, so a big dropoff could go there.

But, my point is that our starting pitchers are among the 7 best staffs in all of baseball.

If I wanted to be really conservative and account for possible injuries and poor hitting, I could go like this:

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins

But, that's still 67 Wins, and assuming the remaining pitchers average 2 Wins each that would still add 22 Wins to the 67 for a Total of 89 Wins.

We are last year's Arizona Diamondbacks. Outstanding Starting pitching every game without a ton of power and a lot of youth in the lineup.

They threw 9 shutouts. They were shutout 6 times themselves. They led their division for 136 Days, before fading. Their longest losing streak was 6. Their longest winning streak was 8. They got off to a red-hot start and were 20-8 (lost 2 of 3 to the REDS Opening Weekend) at the end of April, before finishing 82-80, 2 games out of 1st place as Miracle Manny overtook them. (They went 4-15 from Aug 22-Sep 14)

With our great starting pitching, we have a really great chance to have a really fast start.

I certainly don't mind someone saying that I told you so.Just hope your still bringing back the thread in September to do so.

Kingspoint
05-15-2009, 05:56 PM
Quote: Originally Posted by Kingspoint

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins


That's also only 11 wins per month for this group (66 Wins/6 Months and 1 Win in Oct).

But, because the season starts a week later this year because of the WBC and April and May always have it's off days anyway, I look for:

April/May.........19 Wins.
June/July.........23 Wins.
Aug/Sep..........23 Wins.
Oct..................1 Win.

So, they should be on track to reach those 67 Wins if it looks similar to this at the end of May:

Volquez......................4 Wins
Harang.......................4 Wins
Arroyo........................4 Wins
Cueto.........................3 Wins
Owings.......................3 Wins
Bailey.........................1 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins

Starter Totals for Apr/May........19 Wins (Though Bailey may not get his from starting)


Quote from the end of April by Kingspoint:

I think we're on track for this to happen by the end of May. We played 21 games in April. We'll play 28 games in May (14H, 14R).

So far, through those 21 games (3/7th's of the Apr/May games):

Volquez......................3 Wins
Harang.......................2 Wins
Arroyo........................3 Wins
Cueto.........................1 Wins
Owings.......................1 Wins
Bailey.........................0 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins

Where we haven't done well is Wins by the Relievers. We only have 1 Win from our Relievers. Masset has it.

With some improved hitting (Rosales, Phillips), then we can start to get some more wins by our Relievers, too.

I see us going 17-11 or 18-10 in May.

Now, halfway through May (9-4 so far) here's where the win totals from the starting pitchers have come from:

Volquez......................4 Wins
Harang.......................3 Wins
Arroyo........................5 Wins
Cueto.........................4 Wins
Owings.......................3 Wins
Bailey.........................0 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins

What I've completely overestimated is our Win totals from our Relievers. Through May 15th our Relievers have only 1 Win. (They have 3 losses, 2 from Cordero and 1 from Herrera.) The fact that not a single RED has been credited with a "Blown Save" so far this year has something to do with it. Our bullpen has won every game they've been given a lead in, while our bullpen has only won 1 game that they've come into while behind or tied.

Cueto and Arroyo have already exceded their expected win totals for Apr/May, while Volquez and Owings have already matched their expected Win totals for Apr/May. Harang goes tonight and he's only 1 win behind his expected win total for Apr/May. I had 1 Win for Bailey by the end of May, and it looks like he won't be getting that.

To get to those 85 Wins, I had 22 Wins for our Relievers over the season, which breaks down to about 6 Wins by the end of Apr/May, and 4 Wins each of the other months. So, I'm 5 Wins short so far in Apr/May for our Relievers.

Fon Duc Tow
05-15-2009, 06:35 PM
Here's to you being wrong...

:beerme:








...because the Reds end up winning 100 games. :)

Kingspoint
06-10-2009, 06:57 PM
Here's why.....

I think I'm being pretty conservative here....

Volquez....................17 Wins
Harang.....................16 Wins
Arroyo......................13 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................8 Wins
Bailey.........................5 Wins

That right there is 71 Wins. I expect the remaining Pitchers that will put in significant time with the team to average 2 Wins each.

Nick Masset (R)............2 Wins
Daryl Thompson (R).......2 Wins
Francisco Cordero (R)....2 Wins
Jared Burton (R)...........2 Wins
David Weathers (R).......2 Wins
Arthur Rhodes (L).........2 Wins
Bill Bray (L)..................2 Wins
Mike Lincoln (R)............2 Wins
Ramon Ramirez (R)........2 Wins
Josh Roenicke (R).........2 Wins
Aaron Fultz (L).............2 Wins
Daniel Herrera (L)..........2 Wins

That's another 24 wins for a total of 95 Wins. And, I thought those were very conservative estimates. I see about 5 wins from Daryl Thompson. Harang may not get 8 wins, so a big dropoff could go there. Volquez might not win 10 games, so a big dropoff could go there.

But, my point is that our starting pitchers are among the 7 best staffs in all of baseball.

If I wanted to be really conservative and account for possible injuries and poor hitting, I could go like this:

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins

But, that's still 67 Wins, and assuming the remaining pitchers average 2 Wins each that would still add 22 Wins to the 67 for a Total of 89 Wins.

We are last year's Arizona Diamondbacks. Outstanding Starting pitching every game without a ton of power and a lot of youth in the lineup.

They threw 9 shutouts. They were shutout 6 times themselves. They led their division for 136 Days, before fading. Their longest losing streak was 6. Their longest winning streak was 8. They got off to a red-hot start and were 20-8 (lost 2 of 3 to the REDS Opening Weekend) at the end of April, before finishing 82-80, 2 games out of 1st place as Miracle Manny overtook them. (They went 4-15 from Aug 22-Sep 14)




With our great starting pitching, we have a really great chance to have a really fast start.

Volquez....................15 Wins
Harang.....................13 Wins
Arroyo......................12 Wins
Cueto.......................12 Wins
Owings.......................6 Wins
Bailey.........................4 Wins
Thompson...................5 Wins


That's also only 11 wins per month for this group (66 Wins/6 Months and 1 Win in Oct).

But, because the season starts a week later this year because of the WBC and April and May always have it's off days anyway, I look for:

April/May.........19 Wins.
June/July.........23 Wins.
Aug/Sep..........23 Wins.
Oct..................1 Win.

So, they should be on track to reach those 67 Wins if it looks similar to this at the end of May:

Volquez......................4 Wins
Harang.......................4 Wins
Arroyo........................4 Wins
Cueto.........................3 Wins
Owings.......................3 Wins
Bailey.........................1 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins

Starter Totals for Apr/May........19 Wins (Though Bailey may not get his from starting)


So, let's see how those starters totals for April/May looked, and see if the team is on track for what I predicted at the beginning of the season just basing it on this excellent pitching staff that we have.

Results for Apr/May
Volquez......................4 Wins
Harang.......................5 Wins
Arroyo........................7 Wins
Cueto.........................4 Wins
Owings.......................3 Wins
Bailey.........................0 Wins
Thompson...................0 Wins

Starter Totals for Apr/May........23 Wins!!! That's 4 over projection for Apr/May. This starting staff is even better than was projected, or better than my higher than most expectations had them projected.

....and the rest of the team....

Nick Masset (R)............2 Wins
Daryl Thompson (R).......0 Wins
Francisco Cordero (R)....0 Wins
Jared Burton (R)...........0 Wins
David Weathers (R).......0 Wins
Arthur Rhodes (L).........0 Wins
Bill Bray (L)..................0 Wins
Mike Lincoln (R)............0 Wins
Ramon Ramirez (R)........0 Wins
Josh Roenicke (R).........0 Wins
Aaron Fultz (L).............0 Wins
Daniel Herrera (L)..........0 Wins

....and Carlos Fisher.......1 Win.

Bill Bray and Daryl Thompson are lost for the season.

It looks like Matt Maloney might get some more chances throughout the course of the season either as a starter or reliever.

We've been way short in winning games in the 7th inning on and later. When EE and Votto come back, and some of the young players start to adjust, like Bruce, for example, we can start winning getting some more late-inning victories for our relief pitchers. Our relievers already have 2 wins in June, which is only 1 less than the combined totals for April and May.

sivman17
06-11-2009, 01:19 AM
of course we will win 85 games. that's why i placed a future bet at the mgm grand for them to win at least 79 games ;)