According to this tool, 2009 Reds are Playoff Bound

[Ghosts of 1990]

Hey there guys, some readers of my blog developed this tool and emailed me with it, and I have to say I'm having some fun with it!

I'm warning you, it is addicting and you will waste your time on it. It simulates the 2009 season and all the pennant races and playoffs. It also tells you stats. The first two simulation seasons I did had us winning the NL Central. We got defeated by the Phillies 3 games to 1 in the playoffs each time.

Volquez won the Cy Young the first year.

Check it out.

www.baseballboss.com/simulations/2009

[Ghosts of 1990]

Ankiel just dropped 43 bombs and drove in 123 in my third season on this. We finished last while the SF Giants made the playoffs.

[will5979]

mine is more accurate...the Reds go 69-93 out of first 22 games, sounds right to me.

[Ghosts of 1990]

mine is more accurate...the Reds go 69-93 out of first 22 games, sounds right to me.

I don't use any pytahgorean theorems, but let me tell you as a lifelong baseball fan; I would bet my soul, my life, that this team wins more then 69.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Bruce just hit .250 with 17 HR and 68 RBI in the season I simulated (4th season)

ouch.

[WildcatFan]

Oh, my bad. When I saw this thread title I thought we were talking about Steve Phillips.

[will5979]

I don't use any pytahgorean theorems, but let me tell you as a lifelong baseball fan; I would bet my soul, my life, that this team wins more then 69.

Amen to that brother, I don't use that geeky crap myself, well really I don't understand it nor do I want to! I hope you are right about the wins though, I'll be more than happy to say I was wrong if they win more games, but I say they win 75.

[JBChance]

Oh, my bad. When I saw this thread title I thought we were talking about Steve Phillips.

:laugh:

[Ghosts of 1990]

When we won the division the two times when I simulated it was with just 84 wins! Not all that shocking considering our division!

I say we're an 80 win team

[swaisuc]

When we won the division the two times when I simulated it was with just 84 wins! Not all that shocking considering our division!

I say we're an 80 win team

I don't understand this line of thinking. I think its a safe bet that the Cubs will have one of if not the highest win totals in the NL. I think one of our biggest problems this year is that its going to take a ton of wins to beat the Cubs.

[Jerome]

Oh, my bad. When I saw this thread title I thought we were talking about Steve Phillips.

Awesome. My thoughts exactly.


http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

[RSNtransplant]

I just ran it and Harden lead the league in Ks with 301. I like the Reds chances of winning 91 games(10 over .500) about 100 times better than Harden getting 301 Ks.

[Nasty_Boy]

Amen to that brother, I don't use that geeky crap myself, well really I don't understand it nor do I want to! I hope you are right about the wins though, I'll be more than happy to say I was wrong if they win more games, but I say they win 75.

I'm not a math or numbers person... but when something works and is accurate why not use it? The "nor do I want to" makes you sound like a very open minded person. Is the world still flat?

[TheBigLebowski]

Oh, my bad. When I saw this thread title I thought we were talking about Steve Phillips.

I was afraid the thread was about me.

[Fon Duc Tow]

I was afraid the thread was about me.

I half thought the OP was jokingly referring to himself. :eek:

[Ghosts of 1990]

I half thought the OP was jokingly referring to himself. :eek:

:confused:

[fadetoblack2880]

:confused:

he thought you were referring to yourself as a tool. i, myself, thought after reading the title you were talking about someone and calling them a tool. it's pretty funny.

[nineworldseries]

I'm not sure I trust any prediction site that misspells "Pittsburgh" ...

[Captain Hook]

It usually takes the Reds an entire mlb season to loose 87 games.Now they can do it in 15 seconds.

[Kingspoint]

I don't understand this line of thinking. I think its a safe bet that the Cubs will have one of if not the highest win totals in the NL. I think one of our biggest problems this year is that its going to take a ton of wins to beat the Cubs.

They're the Cubs. They'll find a way to screw it up.

[Kingspoint]

I simulated it and the REDS started out 20-8. Exactly what I'm hoping for in real life. Then reality set in and the REDS fell to 40-43. But, they rallied big time, finishing 93-59, 2 games back of the Cubs. A strange thing happened though. We played the CUBS in the 1st Round of the playoffs, something that can't happen. Same Division teams can't play each other in the 1st Round. The Cubs won the series 3-2, then lost to the Mets, who lost to the Yankees. Arroyo (16-5), Volquez (15-10), Cueto (13-9), Weathers (11-7)!!!!!!!!!....and in only 48 IP. Looks like a ton of REDS games were decided in the 8th inning, Harang (10-9), Owings (7-11), Bray (6-4), Lincoln (3-5), Cordero (2-5) w/ 44 Saves and a whopping 4.42 ERA and a huge 1.38 WHIP, Bailey (1-0), Ramon Ramirez (1-0).


Very strange simulator. Very few unearned runs, and the best pitchers in the league had losing records.

Interesting, though.

[JBChance]

I ran it and we ended up 3rd with the Astros :confused: winning the wildcard. Mine, like Kingspoint's, had the same division foes, Cubs and Astros, playing each other in the first round.

I did like the 86 wins and Harang led the league with 19 :thumbup:

A few "different" results:

- Russell Branyan 5th in the league w/ 36 HR.

- Casey Blake w/ 106 RBI

- Rich Harden the SO leader w/ 251

I really liked that Harang had an awesome shot at the Cy Young with 19 wins/3 losses, era 2.74, WHIP of 1.13. :)

[LexingtonLegend]

Oh, my bad. When I saw this thread title I thought we were talking about Steve Phillips.

damn funny! :thumbup:

[Ghosts of 1990]

At the very least.... it kills some time before Opening Day haha.

[TheBigLebowski]

Whomever this tool is, he appears to be a Reds fan. I ran it twice and we won 96 & 94 games. Won the series once and lost in the first round once to the Pads.

[Handofdeath]

When I saw the title of the thread I was envisioning a picture of a monkey throwing darts.

[Captain Hook]

I can't believe you guys are getting such good results.I ran it at least 10 times and the Reds never finished better then winning 79 games for 3rd place.What type of projections are you guys choosing?

[Captain Hook]

Even with the bad results still having fun playing with this thing.Thanks for posting it.:beerme:

[Ghosts of 1990]

They seem to be high on Russ Branyan........ don't drink the punch!

[Kingspoint]

I did it one more time, and the results for the REDS were about the same:

They finished 91-71, 2nd to the Brewers. They beat the Marlins 3-1 in the 1st Round, and lost to the Brewers in 7 games. The Brewers lost to the Indians in 6.

Pitching Win-Loss ERA WHIP

Owings 14-10 3.75 1.23
Bronson 15-7 3.26 1.18
Volquez 13-12 4.03 1.36
Harang 12-9 3.61 1.14
Cueto 11-14 3.90 1.39
Cordero 0-4 1.55 0.76!!! 53 SVS (he pitches like that and 91 wins for sure)
Bray 10-4 3.29 1.20
Burton 7-3 3.42 1.24
Weathers 8-7 3.99 1.58
Ramirez 3-1 3.79 1.45
Bailey 0-0 3.19 1.40
Lincoln 1-1 5.86 1.40


Hitting:
Keppinger 609 AB's!!!! .296/.338 .750 OPS
Alex Gonz .232/.286 6 SB's .635 OPS
Edwin E. MVP of the Team in hitting .817 OPS .282/322/495 29HR, 39 2B's
Votto 10 HR's!!!! .637 OPS!!! .227/299 (It's Patterson's numbers)
Bruce .265/307 24HR, 40 2B's, 11 SB's
Dickerson 30 2B's, 10 3B's, 19 HR's, 19 SB's, .783 OPS
Phillips 231/276/353 .629 OPS, 17 SB's
Willie T. .313/.352 .742 OPS, 53 SB's
Our catcher hits 8 Triples....that I've got to see.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Not enough offense. TOo pitching heavy. I've seen Pujols hit 22 HR too many times to know that the tool is junk.

[tripleaaaron]

Not very accurate, especially with Marcel, my first season had the Nationals winning it all. The odds must be one in a billion.

[tripleaaaron]

Oh yeah, only Yunel Escobar finished with over 100 runs scored

[Ghosts of 1990]

Ok its junk. But its fun haha

[Handofdeath]

Not very accurate, especially with Marcel, my first season had the Nationals winning it all. The odds must be one in a billion.

Don't be so sure, when I did it it had the Nationals winning the NL.