Danny Herrera...should he make the team?

[_Sir_Charles_]

I vote yes. He has been virtually unhittable all spring. And it's not like he's lucking out here, he's making guys look absolutely foolish with his breaking stuff. I couldn't care less about how hard he throws or how short he is...I care about results. And Danny's bringing them. So far, he's faced 27 hitters and retired 26 of them including another 3 up 3 down tonight against the Yanks.

His off-speed stuff is the perfect foil to our assortment of hard throwers in the rotation and in the pen. He's not limited to only pitching one time in a series like someone suggested, just not more than once through the lineup in one night.

So if we keep him, who doesn't make the club? I'd say it's down to 3 people, Homer (so he can start full time in AAA), Bray (he's still got options and he's been pretty bad all spring), and Masset. Masset is without options which means he'd have to be put on waivers and there's very little chance he'll make it through those without being claimed. I'd like to have Masset because he can eat innings, but we've got other guys who are capable of doing that (Viola, Maloney, Thompson, Ramirez). He's been pretty hittable this spring and I don't want to hold onto a guy and push back another just because he's out of options. I think it's time to cut Nick loose and give Danny the shot he's MORE than earned.

What do YOU guys think? Does Danny stay, and who gets shown the door to make room for him?

[AmarilloRed]

Danny should make the club. He had a good year in Louisville last year, and has impressed in spring training. As to who shouldn't make the cut, it's Nick Masset. He hasn't done well this spring, and I think he could clear waivers without being claimed.

[HokieRed]

Danny up, Bray down. If it's based on performance, that should be obvious.

[RedEye]

Is the choice between Herrera and Bray at this point? Sorry... I haven't been following the spring roster battles as closely as I should.

[Superdude]

Herrera's had a good spring, but if Bray is fully heathly, the job's gotta be his after last year right?

[Team Clark]

Herrera's had a good spring, but if Bray is fully heathly, the job's gotta be his after last year right?

I like that Herrera has been getting nearly everyone out. The only hesitation that I have is that Ricky Stone was doing the same thing at Louisville not that long ago with relatively the same stuff. He was lit up when he got to the bigs again. I really need to see Herrera pitch in person this year to get a good gauge.

[Caseyfan21]

I like that Herrera has been getting nearly everyone out. The only hesitation that I have is that Ricky Stone was doing the same thing at Louisville not that long ago with relatively the same stuff. He was lit up when he got to the bigs again. I really need to see Herrera pitch in person this year to get a good gauge.

I saw him pitch last night against Minnesota. I had the same hesitations about maybe he's just getting by with smoke and mirrors but he has won me over.

He went right after hitters throwing strikes early in the count, which was the opposite of what Bill Bray did against the Sox earlier in the week. He also effectively mixed up location and speeds which is refreshing to see a Reds pitcher do successfully. He made Morneau and Young look like little leaguers up there with his big curve. It was flat nasty with great movement from what I saw down near first base. I can easily say, of the 4 games I went to this past week, he was throwing the best breaking pitch, movement wise, of anyone.

While he might get lit up as the season progresses and teams get a good look at him, I think he has absolutely won the second lefty position out of the pen by outperforming Bray this spring and really showing he belongs. I think Bray starts the year in AAA (assuming he has options, I think), and hopefully he gets completely in sync (losing time to the injury probably hasn't helped him) and at some point later in the season, whether because of performance or injury, he will get a shot.

[membengal]

Ricky Stone was a screw-ball throwing lefty?

[dougdirt]

Honestly, I don't think he should. There is only one spot open in the bullpen. Cordero, Weathers, Burton, Rhodes and Bray all have spots locked up.... and they should. It comes down to Masset.... and if he doesn't make the team, without hesitation I go with Bailey or Roenicke before I go to Herrera. I think Danny could actually succeed in the majors if he is used correctly. I don't have much faith that Dusty can figure out how to use him correctly.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Honestly, I don't think he should. There is only one spot open in the bullpen. Cordero, Weathers, Burton, Rhodes and Bray all have spots locked up.... and they should. It comes down to Masset.... and if he doesn't make the team, without hesitation I go with Bailey or Roenicke before I go to Herrera.

Totally agree, Dougdirt. It is much easier to get hitters out, with his type of stuff, in the spring before everyone gets their timing. Much rather have Bailey, Roenicke, or Masset.

[Will M]

Question for Bray supporters:

what exactly has he done that makes his roster spot a given?
his WHIP of 1.57 last year was terrible.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Totally agree, Dougdirt. It is much easier to get hitters out, with his type of stuff, in the spring before everyone gets their timing. Much rather have Bailey, Roenicke, or Masset.

I agree that it's easier to get hitters out in spring training, but he was doing the same thing all of the past 2 years too. Roenicke is another flamethrower who's our closer down the road, but unless Cordero struggles or gets injured...I'd rather keep him in Louisville (unless we got rid of some of the hurlers we DON'T need, like Weathers & Rhodes...Lincoln I'm warming to). A long man out of the pen would be nice, but we've simply got too many locked in middle relievers to afford that luxury. Especially with Dusty saying he prefers a 12 man pitching roster as opposed to a 13.

[bucksfan2]

Question for Bray supporters:

what exactly has he done that makes his roster spot a given?
his WHIP of 1.57 last year was terrible.

Same thing Arroyo, Harang, and Cordero have done. Its only the spring. You have to take the numbers with a grain of salt.

[mth123]

Question for Bray supporters:

what exactly has he done that makes his roster spot a given?
his WHIP of 1.57 last year was terrible.

He strikes guys out and limits homers. He walks too many, but as a lefty who throws hard, he's somewhat a rare commodity. If the Reds want to move on, then he needs to be dealt. No sense in sending him down and further eroding his trade value in favor of a low ceiling guy like Herrera.

Herrera can be a decent change of pace guy to bring in after and/or before a hard thrower, but he's not going to be a bullpen mainstay and the Reds have more pressing needs for the 12th man on the staff role (like innings). In a pen structured differently, Herrera could be a good 12th man, but this team needs relief innings more than it needs a change of look guy.

[nate]

Same thing Arroyo, Harang, and Cordero have done. Its only the spring. You have to take the numbers with a grain of salt.

I think Will said "last year."

[Mario-Rijo]

He strikes guys out and limits homers. He walks too many, but as a lefty who throws hard, he's somewhat a rare commodity. If the Reds want to move on, then he needs to be dealt. No sense in sending him down and further eroding his trade value in favor of a low ceiling guy like Herrera.

Herrera can be a decent change of pace guy to bring in after and/or before a hard thrower, but he's not going to be a bullpen mainstay and the Reds have more pressing needs for the 12th man on the staff role (like innings). In a pen structured differently, Herrera could be a good 12th man, but this team needs relief innings more than it needs a change of look guy.

Ditto!

[remdog]

Unless Bray shows improvement in this last stage of ST I wouldn't be opposed to sending him to L'ville and keeping Danny Ray.

That would do two things:

1)Bray, because of his injury, is a little behind the curve so it would give him an opportunity to get some more work in and build arm strength.

2)It would give the Reds a little longer look at DRH under 'real' conditions.

Like most people I would love for the DRH underdog story to have a 'happy ending'. And, I think, that he can and will be valuable if used correctly. My fear is that Dusty won't use him correctly. I can easily see Dusty trying to use him in long relief and Danny Ray having to go through the order more than once. (Red lights and blaring warning horns should be going off in that scenario.)

If Massett makes the team (and I'm guessing that he will) then he's your long man to start the season. I also think the Lincoln, another year removed from him arm injury, will be allowed to go longer in some cases. Weathers, since he's on the team could also be used for a couple of innings if need be.

April usually has a few more gaps between games whether by the schedule or inclement weather. All of these things combined would seem to give the Reds some 'wiggle room' on DRH and BB.

Rem

[SMcGavin]

Bray should definitely make the team. Masset definitely should not. IMO the question is, should the last spot go to Herrera or Roenicke? Both are good enough to succeed in MLB, so it doesn't really matter to me which one of those two makes it. The one who doesn't make it out of ST, I expect to see up before too long.

[SMcGavin]

Question for those who are scared of hitters seeing Herrera more than once... did you know he was a starter in college? His numbers from his last year at New Mexico:

10-0, 2.24 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.10 WHIP (in 128 IP, 7.5 IP per start)

Those numbers are even more impressive because UNM plays in a crazy hitters' park, the team ERA that season was 6.93. If you're curious about the level of competition there were two 2nd round draft picks pitching in the Mountain West that year, Justin Masterson (6-7, 4.81) and Brad Furnish (8-6, 4.32).

And then there are Herrera's minor league numbers:

198 IP, 2.64 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, 1.08 WHIP

I'm not going to throw out a three year track record of completely dominating hitters at every level he's been just because he doesn't fit my expectation of what a good pitcher should be. Herrera has the raw results and he has the peripherals. He's a good pitcher, and I expect that he'll continue to be one at the ML level.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Question for those who are scared of hitters seeing Herrera more than once... did you know he was a starter in college? His numbers from his last year at New Mexico:

10-0, 2.24 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.10 WHIP (in 128 IP, 7.5 IP per start)

Those numbers are even more impressive because UNM plays in a crazy hitters' park, the team ERA that season was 6.93. If you're curious about the level of competition there were two 2nd round draft picks pitching in the Mountain West that year, Justin Masterson (6-7, 4.81) and Brad Furnish (8-6, 4.32).

And then there are Herrera's minor league numbers:

198 IP, 2.64 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, 1.08 WHIP

I'm not going to throw out a three year track record of completely dominating hitters at every level he's been just because he doesn't fit my expectation of what a good pitcher should be. Herrera has the raw results and he has the peripherals. He's a good pitcher, and I expect that he'll continue to be one at the ML level.

Exactly. I don't care what his body-type is...he's proven it at every level that he's no flash in the pan. And with what he's done this spring...he's earned a shot.

[remdog]

Question for those who are scared of hitters seeing Herrera more than once... did you know he was a starter in college?


Players often are drafted and moved into other roles based upon both the the best position for them, the needs of the club and the perception of various professional organizations. Just because DRH was a starter in college doesn't mean he is suited to be a starter in MLB.

I'm rooting for Danny but his college resume has been dwarfed by his pro career.

Rem

[RedsManRick]

Herrera may very well not succeed at the major league level on an extended basis. But there's no doubt he's earned the opportunity to get the chance.

[SMcGavin]

Players often are drafted and moved into other roles based upon both the the best position for them, the needs of the club and the perception of various professional organizations. Just because DRH was a starter in college doesn't mean he is suited to be a starter in MLB.

I'm rooting for Danny but his college resume has been dwarfed by his pro career.

Rem

Not saying he should be an MLB starter. I'm showing evidence to contradict the "he'll get hit hard once guys see his stuff twice" criticism that he always gets. Guys saw his stuff over and over that year (he led the conference in innings pitched) and he still absolutely dominated them in an extreme hitters environment (Isotopes Park and metal bats).

[dougdirt]

Not saying he should be an MLB starter. I'm showing evidence to contradict the "he'll get hit hard once guys see his stuff twice" criticism that he always gets. Guys saw his stuff over and over that year (he led the conference in innings pitched) and he still absolutely dominated them in an extreme hitters environment (Isotopes Park and metal bats).

There is a large difference between college and minor league hitters seeing your stuff twice and Major League hitters seeing your stuff twice. And yeah, Herrera has earned a shot and he will get it in due time. But he is going to have to wait just like Josh Roenicke, Carlos Fisher and Pedro Viola who also have had very good springs.

[wally post]

I hope he makes it and believe he deserves it. Not all great pitchers throw 90mph.

[RollyInRaleigh]

But it helps.

[Degenerate39]

But it helps.

Thats what will help him on this team IMO. The starters like Volquez, Cueto, Harang, and maybe Bailey all throw hard. Then after 6 or 7 innings of them you put Danny in there with his slow junk and the hitters aren't use to it.

[OnBaseMachine]

It's looking like Danny Ray may make the team...

--It sounds like Bill Bray's roster spot is in jeopardy because his velocity is down five or six miles an hour and Daniel Ray Herrera is pitch so well.

“That’s the question right now,” Baker said. “He did a good job for us last year. He has outstanding stuff. Yesterday, his velocity was down a little bit. You don’t know if that’s from overthrowing. He’s been checked and they can’t find anything.”

“I’ve talked with him about being himself and not trying to hard.”

Herrera would probably get the call if it’s not Bray.

“Early in the year, change-of-speed guys are the hardest to hit,” Baker said.

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[RollyInRaleigh]

“Early in the year, change-of-speed guys are the hardest to hit,” Baker said.

Totally agree with that.

[Highlifeman21]

“Early in the year, change-of-speed guys are the hardest to hit,” Baker said.

So does that mean that later in the season guys will knock the snot out of Danny Herrera b/c they'll have figured him out?

[Scrap Irony]

Perhaps. But it's easily remedied if that happens. Ship Herrera to AAA and bring up the guy pitching best at that time.

Slow guys disrupt timing, for sure, and, especially in the beginning, hitters struggle with timing.

[jojo]

Question for those who are scared of hitters seeing Herrera more than once... did you know he was a starter in college? His numbers from his last year at New Mexico:

10-0, 2.24 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.10 WHIP (in 128 IP, 7.5 IP per start)

Those numbers are even more impressive because UNM plays in a crazy hitters' park, the team ERA that season was 6.93. If you're curious about the level of competition there were two 2nd round draft picks pitching in the Mountain West that year, Justin Masterson (6-7, 4.81) and Brad Furnish (8-6, 4.32).

And then there are Herrera's minor league numbers:

198 IP, 2.64 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, 1.08 WHIP

I'm not going to throw out a three year track record of completely dominating hitters at every level he's been just because he doesn't fit my expectation of what a good pitcher should be. Herrera has the raw results and he has the peripherals. He's a good pitcher, and I expect that he'll continue to be one at the ML level.

You've made essentially the same argument to suggest no one should be surprised if Maloney is more than a #4 starter for his career.

Minor league numbers are neat but they also have to be rooted in a skill set that translates to the bigs.

In this case, Herrera can probably be a bullpen arm in the majors but his role is going to be fairly limited and that's just not something to get uber excited about IMHO.

[SMcGavin]

You've made essentially the same argument to suggest no one should be surprised if Maloney is more than a #4 starter for his career.

Minor league numbers are neat but they also have to be rooted in a skill set that translates to the bigs.

In this case, Herrera can probably be a bullpen arm in the majors but his role is going to be fairly limited and that's just not something to get uber excited about IMHO.

He's similar to Maloney in some ways, but Herrera has a couple of advantages that Maloney does not. Herrera's two best attributes are that he doesn't walk batters and he keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. Neither is likely to change once he hits MLB. Maloney has solid but not great control and an average GB/FB rate, so he is more reliant on his ability to strike guys out. Herrera doesn't have to strike a ton of guys out in the big leagues to be successful. Maloney does - he doesn't have to keep K'ing a guy per inning like in the minors, but he does need to have a keep up a decent K/9 to be good in the bigs. For that reason Herrera is more of a sure thing in my eyes.

As far as minor league numbers vs scout evaluations - I am admittedly more interested in actual performance. But it's not the only thing I look at - if it was, I'd be arguing Herrera as a future All-Star because his minor league numbers really are that good. I don't think that's in his future, but I do think he'll be a solid contributor to an MLB bullpen.

[Caveat Emperor]

Counterpoint: Arthur Rhodes isn't a full-inning guy. I imagine (but I'm not certain) that Danny Ray is most effective in limited outings (1 or 2 batters) and, thus, isn't a full inning guy either.

That's going to be asking a lot of Weathers, Burton and Lincoln if you figure the rest of the pen is:

Cordero (only the 9th)
Bailey / Massett (swingmen)
Rhodes (partial inning pitcher)
Herrera (partial inning pitcher)

[_Sir_Charles_]

It might not be asking as much as we usually think. Better defense and better starting pitchers will lead to starters going longer more often I'd think. Less stress on the pen is a offshoot of better starting pitching.

But I agree that we need somebody who can eat some innings in the pen because of the makeup of it. That's kind of why I was disappointed when we signed Rhodes. He's a good pitcher and all, but he doesn't really suit our needs. We've already got people in-house who can fill his role. But that's over and done with, so we move forward with what we're dealt with. I think that means Masset in the pen even though Herrera MORE than deserves it. But maybe the lighter schedule in the first half can let us keep Danny and then alter the pen later on. I hope.

[Mario-Rijo]

The guy Bray needs to worry about is Pedro Viola who could/might eventually steal his job. Herrera is a good kid to have in AAA in case you need another LH for awhile but I'm in the camp that doesn't believe he will ever be a major league regular.

[Will M]

Herrera was a bit shaky in April but seems to have settled down. His walks are down quite a bit. In his last 9 IP going back to May 11th he has 2 BB/7K with 9 hits.

[fearofpopvol1]

This kid is good.

He fills in whatever spot he's called on for.

[11larkin11]

DRH. Starter?

Discuss.

[fearofpopvol1]

DRH. Starter?

Discuss.

Nah...he's way more effective (and valuable) as a reliever. Small doses is good for him.

[reds44]

DRH. Starter?

Discuss.
Holy mother of overexposure batman.

[SMcGavin]

I don't think he should be a starter... but DRH has been called upon to throw three innings in a game twice this year, both times he threw zeroes. Can we get off the "overexposure" thing? He has good stuff, it might be weird stuff, but that doesn't mean it's not good.

[Nasty_Boy]

I don't think he should be a starter... but DRH has been called upon to throw three innings in a game twice this year, both times he threw zeroes. Can we get off the "overexposure" thing? He has good stuff, it might be weird stuff, but that doesn't mean it's not good.

Not that I totally disagree, but 3 innings is basically one time through the batting order. He could very well be exposed once the lineup turns over.

[SMcGavin]

Not that I totally disagree, but 3 innings is basically one time through the batting order. He could very well be exposed once the lineup turns over.

Didn't mean to submit that as absolute proof for my argument - just saying that these are the type of situations DRH was supposed to be bad at, and so far that's not happening. My real point is that there is zero evidence to suggest he is going to suffer more from overexposure than any other young pitcher.

[Nasty_Boy]

Didn't mean to submit that as absolute proof for my argument - just saying that these are the type of situations DRH was supposed to be bad at, and so far that's not happening. My real point is that there is zero evidence to suggest he is going to suffer more from overexposure than any other young pitcher.

Agreed!

[11larkin11]

Holy mother of overexposure batman.

Oh, I'm not saying I want it, I'm just stirring up what I think would be a good conversation. He DID start at New Mexico.

[OnBaseMachine]

Herrera earned his first major league win tonight. Congrats to him. He pitched very well and was a joy to watch. He really tied Kotchman up in knots.

[VR]

Oh, I'm not saying I want it, I'm just stirring up what I think would be a good conversation. He DID start at New Mexico.

Believe it or not....I don't think this team will have a shortage of starters for awhile. They have some very good arms coming up through the system that would be much better options than DRH.

He's perfectly suited in a bullpen of power arms.....l'd like to see him stay exactly where he is.

[OnBaseMachine]

Big night for the little man
Posted by JohnFay at 6/17/2009 12:55 AM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Daniel Ray Herrera earned the victory his first in the majors.

“It’s exciting,” he said. “It’s the first time I got to go multiple innings. You dream about it as a kid. The first one is really, really exciting.”

Herrera, all 5-foot-6 of him, has been a key to the success of the Reds this year. He got the game from Aaron Harang to the back of the bullpen with three shutout innings. He allowed two hits and struck out two. His ERA is 1.69after 28 games and 26 2/3 innings.

The win snapped a four-game losing streak and put the Reds back over .500 at 32-31. It also kept them within three games of the first-place Brewers.

“It’s real big after the road trip we had,” Dusty Baker said. “It’s a situation where we want to open as much room from .500 as we can.”

Baker pointed out how good Harang looked before an 1-hour, 49-minute rain delay ended his night.

“That’s the best I’ve seen Aaron all year,” Baker said. “Velocity, location. I hope he remembers that tempo, that rhythm. He was masterful. That’s the best he’s thrown since I’ve been here.”

"I worked on some things in the bullpen between starts," Harang said. "Everything was clicking."

All 13 pitches Harang threw in the first were strikes. He hit 94 on the scoreboard readout. That's the first time I've seen that from him in two years.

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[RollyInRaleigh]

I am going to admit that I was wrong about Herrera. He has been very good so far. He needs to be used in the right way, but doggone if he isn't very effective. He seems to be very confident about his "stuff" and comes right at people. Glad I was wrong on this one.

[lollipopcurve]

I'm sure DRH has been proving people wrong for just about his entire life.

Clever throw-in in the Volquez trade -- well done by Krivsky.