My beliefs about the 2009 Cincinnati Reds

[BearcatShane]

I believe the 8 straight losing season comes to an and.

I believe Alex Gonzalez is about to realize his career is over.

I believe a Sports Illustated article released in mid June will read something like this: (Picture of Jay Bruce at the plate) and "King of the Queen City" written underneath.

I believe Micha Owings will be very good, and a fan favorite.

I believe Chris Dickerson will be average, and thats a good thing.

I believe Ramon Hernandez touches them all at least 17 times.

I believe Reds fans will bow down to Walt Jocketty for trading Griffey and Dunn.

I believe 5-3 will seem way more fun than 8-6.

I believe that the losing seasons are making Reds fans very weary of believing in the 2009 Reds. Rightfully so.

I believe this team will play meaningful games in September.

I believe the city of Cincinnati will fall in love with the way this team plays.

I believe Johnny Cueto is about to be special.

I believe in the 2009 Reds.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Nice post. I have some gut feelings as well that aren't real far off to yours.

I actually think Dickerson out of nowhere could have people talking about a higher ceiling for him by season's end then Votto and Bruce but he will not sustain it and they'll end up being better pro's.

I think Cueto is going to break out.

The pitching has some question marks but we could have a lot worse as far as 5 starters go.

Dunn will always be a debate, but Griffey no doubt will not be missed in any way.

Ramon Hernandez could easily hit 20 homers this season. Hitters park.

I think we'll play meaningful games in September. By then I'm focused on football with the way we usually play and half our team is on the DL. This year I think we'll sit around 5-8 games out in September, which is a lot better then 20.

[Ghosts of 1990]

And believing in the 2009 Reds, well it's what makes our sport, and the spring great. There's hope for everyone because come April 6th, everyone is in first! I love baseball for that reason among many others.

[Nasty_Boy]

I believe that I don't believe 75% of what you believe. :D

[BLEEDS]

I believe in the Easter Bunny.

I believe in the Tooth Fairy.

I believe in Santa Clause.

I believe there is a very small chance the 2009 Reds might win more games than last year.

I believe ONE of the above has a chance of being true. :cool:


Okay, so seriously (well at least more serious, since the above is actually quite serious):

I do believe AGon might actually gut out 125 games for us this year. I think that's good because I do think an 85-95% Agon is still 10x better than a 100% Keppinger or Hairston at short. His offense also has a chance to do more - IFF not put in the 2 hole - see his first season in Cincy, a bit of pop!

I actually think Dickerson could be much more than average.
He has a chance to "find himself" after a career in the minors and his flash in the bigs last year. He's at "that age" where his physical peak coincides with a possible "finally getting it" and he could actually put up a .750-.800 OPS and cut down his K's, etc... At the very least, he SHOULD have been given a shot at CF, where he'd be WAAAAY more than we got out of CP last year, and IMO will be a much better player overall than WT. To me, that's the BIGGEST disappointment to this off-season. Putting Dickerson in Center and getting a LF Power Bat would have really given us a shot at something special.

Owings also has a chance to really help our club. Winning the #5 spot allows us the flexibility to use him as a pinch hitter - good thing because we currently don't have a lefty PH on the bench! I didn't really figure that into the equation, but he really does bring a good bat to the bench. In the very least, he's a replacement for Javy from last year in that role.

I also do expect Hanigan and Hernandez to be an upgrade at C - how can it not at the plate?!?! - the TBD is to see how they handle the pitching staff. IFF they can aid in the development of our young pitchers. Bako might have been a suck at the plate, but behind it he really did help our pitchers. Even though his D wasn't great, if you think his veteran-ship didn't help Cueto and Volquez at all, you're fooling yourself. I thought Hernandez was a good idea since he's working with Volquez and Cueto, but playing in the WBC so long didn't help him, so we'll see how that progresses.

I try to be optimistic, but it's hard when you have Dusty the Toothpick, his CF bats 1st/SS bats 2nd mentality - especially when your CF is WT and your SS is a pandora's box...

We're going to need EXTRAORDINARY years from our pitching staff, and huge strides from Bruce, BP, EE, and Votto (in that order, in diminishing magnitudes) to overcome all other obstacles and approach .500.

Here's to hoping I eat a ton of crow, and have to change my sig for 757690!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[redsfan1966]

I believe I will spend another summer watching and listening to Reds Baseball....

[dunner13]

I believe...
-Dickerson shocks the world and goes 30-30
-Bruce gets some serious MVP votes
-Volquez and Cueto win at least 15 games
-Bailey dominates in the bullpen and has success in about 15 starts as well
-Valiaka will become our starting SS before the All star break and will not give the job up for years
-EEs bat goes to the next level but his defense is still a problem
-Reds win 88 games and take the wild card.
- Dusty becomes redszone's favorite manager of all time (ok thats probably a stretch)

[stevekun]

I believe:

Votto hits over .300 this year
We will have on 20 game winner on our staff
Willy T steals at least 80 bases
Phillips wins another gold glove

[jmac]

I think this staff is going to be special though the BP scares me greatly right now.
I am liking how Harang has pitched his last two starts. Him with Volquez/Cueto could be a very above avg top 3.

I think Votto/Bruce will put up excellent numbers though they could use that RH bat between them. ( I am not counting Phillips as 4th spot hitter).

Dickerson will put up good numbers as part of a platoon.

Owings will be an excellent addition as well as get some big hits.

Worries : Cordero, rest of Bullpen , bench pop

All in all....they should be improved and we finally have some starting pitching. :)

[gedred69]

I see the BP as a strength. Cordero won't be worth his $$, but will be serviceable. Burton MUST stay healthy, and if Bray doesn't perform, bring on the little guy. Valaika may well take over SS before long, and if they find a need for LH power (as someone suggested), Dorn is waiting in the wings. There are other "repair parts" in the Minors waiting for a chance. I think this will be a team to hold our interest past July at least.

[redsfandan]

I believe:
A winning season is not only possible but realistic IF things break right.
The playoffs is more likely in 2010 but I think we're on the right path to get there.
Bleeds will have a new signature. (I couldn't resist)

[Ghosts of 1990]

I also believe:

-Taveras will be lucky to steal 40.

-We won't have anyone finish in top 10 in MVP voting

-No 20 game winners, but could see Cueto going 17-3 or 15-3 or something sick like that.

-Dickerson will go off this year...... .310, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 30 SB. People will be liking him more then Bruce and Votto although he'll fall short from thereforward.

-By years end someone else will be closing ballgames.

[stock]

I believe Chris Dickerson (20 HR, 20 SB, .350 OBP, .825 OPS) will make people happy Adam Dunn is a National.

I believe Micah Owings (8-10 W 5.00 ERA) will make people happy Adam Dunn was a Diamondback last September.

I believe Volquez (17 W 2.75 ERA) Cueto (12 W 4.25 ERA) and Harang (15 W 4.00 ERA) improve upon last years stats.

I believe EdE makes his final error as a Red 3B this year.

I believe that at long last the Reds have some decent catching, so much so that I believe the Reds will exercise their option on Ramon Hernandez.

I believe Bruce (.275 30-35 HR 90+ RBI) will continue to develop as a major league hitter.

I believe Votto (.300 25-30 HR 100+ RBI) will reward the Reds for not trading him for Bedard two years ago.

I believe that Lincoln (not Gomes) will turn out to be the Reds best off season transaction, followed closely by the Hernandez/Freel trade.

I believe the future is looking very bright for Cincinnati Reds fans.

I believe the future begins in 2009 not 2010.

[topsyt]

Me I think it will be fun again-rather than frustrating again and that folks would be a very welcome change!:thumbup:

[BLEEDS]

I believe Chris Dickerson (20 HR, 20 SB, .350 OBP, .825 OPS)

I believe Micah Owings (8-10 W 5.00 ERA)

I believe Volquez (17 W 2.75 ERA) Cueto (12 W 4.25 ERA) and Harang (15 W 4.00 ERA)

I believe Bruce (.275 30-35 HR 90+ RBI)

I believe Votto (.300 25-30 HR 100+ RBI)


I believe that all of this will probably have to happen if we are to break .500

However, I believe it's realistic that at best you can hope for 2 maybe 3 to meet the lofty expectations you've set herein. Especially the pitching, where adding a .5 to each ERA - is a more achievable goal... you've got them all Dropping OVER .50 off their ERA's which isn't very realistic. I think if only Harang improves his ERA that much we would be good to go...

And, I sure HOPE that Bruce and Votto have that many RBI's, but with the guys batting 1-2 and 4, there aren't bound to be that many runners on base unfortunately. Bruce might have more RBI's than Votto, simply because he's got Votto batting in front of him - as long as BP doesn't regress on his GIDP stats...

Dickerson, I think, has the best chance to shine and probably meet those numbers you put up. Just don't list the K's! ;)!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Maldez]

Why is Dickerson being average a good thing?

[will5979]

I believe that I'm excited about opening day.

I believe that I probably will care less by August, HOPE NOT THOUGH!

I believe Dickerson hits 27 hrs this year.

I believe Votto MAY make Reds fans forget about Dunn.

I believe that Philly could possibly repeat as Worlds Champions, and that would be bad thing considering as how the Reds were the last NL team to do so. I always root for the NL in the series. HOWEVER, if there is a chance that an NL team will repeat, I go for the AL...hey I want the Reds to have ALL the glory and not share with anybody! 75-76-90 spoiled me 4 life!

[TheBigLebowski]

I believe all this optimism is going to find itself with Elvis as soon as we lose 3-4 games in a row. Such is the psyche of the Reds Fan.

I believe Volquez/Cueto/Harang/Arroyo/Owings will be one of the most formidable rotations in all of baseball.

I believe we'll score more runs than people think but we will never be confused with an elite offensive baseball club.

I believe Willy Tavares will do just enough to make his supporters feel like he was a good acquisition and just enough to make the other 75% of the fanbase want to run him up the flagpole. Corey Patterson 2.0. He'll steal 53 bases. OPB .320.

I believe this is the year that EdE finally becomes the all-star caliber player we all hoped he would eventually be. However, if it doesn't happen this year, time to cut bait and say hi to Mr. Todd Frazier.

I believe someone in our rotation will suffer an injury and Homer Bailey will fill in admirably, making us all thank our lucky stars we didn't flip him for Jermaine Dye.

I believe our bullpen is going to be much worse than we expect and I also believe Coco Cordero will find himself on the DL in a month.

I, too, believe SeaBass Gonzalez is going to see the writing on the wall early on this season, and the message is not going to read "You've got 3-4 productive years left in ya, SeaBass."

I believe our catching tandem should be nicknamed "Hernandigan." If pressed I would agree to extend it to "Rymon Hernandigan."

I believe Votto and Bruce are both one season away from truly becoming superstars.

I believe that I have no idea whatsoever to expect from Dickerson but my gut is telling me that he's going to disappoint.

I believe most of us are going to be very glad Johnny Gomes is here.

I believe I will be in our nation's capital on June 18-21 to catch the Reds playing the Nats and I also believe I will be happy Adam Dunn is wearing the home whites.

[BLEEDS]

Why is Dickerson being average a good thing?

Set the bar low, that way you won't be disappointed... :rolleyes:

Seriously though, when you've got Corey Pattersons and Willy Tavares' to deal with in CF, you're Hoping & Praying for some "Average" elsewhere...
:bang::barf:

Hopefully he plays well enough in the OF, that someone gets the magical idea of letting HIM play in CF, elevating it from Suck to Average, and then getting "Way Above Average" in LF...
Then we might really make some noise in 2010.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[JBChance]

I believe that Volquez and Cueto will out pitch Harang and Arroyo and be our 1 - 2 pitchers in 2010.

I believe that Dickerson will do only OK and eventually be a fourth-outfielder type of player in the future.

I believe that the young guns in the bullpen (Roenicke, Herrera) will get a chance this season, sooner than later.

I believe that Bruce will have a breakout season this year. He's just too good.

I believe the 5th rotation spot will still be an adventure this year, once an injury happens (and it will happen)

I believe that, if we are holding our own in mid-May, we will trade for a SS.

[BearcatShane]

Why is Dickerson being average a good thing?

The guy hit .260 in the minors and he is 27 years old. Yes, he played great when he was called up last year and he has followed up with a very solid spring. If Dickerson hits .270 with and OBP of .350 to go along with 15 homers 68 RBI and steals 20 bases, a stat line in which I would consider average, I think Reds fans should be happy. But that is just my opinion. I think he has a chance to be very good but if he does become an average big league outfielder, thats ok too.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Why is Dickerson being average a good thing?

He's saying he'll be better then a complete bust.... he will be right at expectations

[Captain Hook]

I was going to write about all the things I believe about this years Cincinnati Reds.Had a list of about 7 things.After looking at the list I figured that if all of these things that I for some reason truly believe, came true then the Reds would without any doubt have a great season.

I do not think that there is anything wrong with hope but to believe out of hope is just fooling yourself.Every year this happens.I'm filled with hope as ST grows nears but I have no belief.I know that even under the best case scenario my Reds will be lucky to be less then 10 games out by Sept.As opening day nears my hope turns into belief.Why?

This will be my first season here in the Redszone so I hope its a good one.I do seem to notice that the majority of my fellow Reds fans here have the same problem as I do.I sort of remember that this team was going to be terrible(general consensus in the redszone) at the beginning of Feb. and now we are looking pretty good.

I guess my point is that being a true fan really makes you try very hard to find reasons to believe that your team will be good.I hope that all of this belief turns into a lot of wins.I'm sure I'm a fool but I believe it will(once again).

[Ghosts of 1990]

I was going to write about all the things I believe about this years Cincinnati Reds.Had a list of about 7 things.After looking at the list I figured that if all of these things that I for some reason truly believe, came true then the Reds would without any doubt have a great season.

I do not think that there is anything wrong with hope but to believe out of hope is just fooling yourself.Every year this happens.I'm filled with hope as ST grows nears but I have no belief.I know that even under the best case scenario my Reds will be lucky to be less then 10 games out by Sept.As opening day nears my hope turns into belief.Why?

This will be my first season here in the Redszone so I hope its a good one.I do seem to notice that the majority of my fellow Reds fans here have the same problem as I do.I sort of remember that this team was going to be terrible(general consensus in the redszone) at the beginning of Feb. and now we are looking pretty good.

I guess my point is that being a true fan really makes you try very hard to find reasons to believe that your team will be good.I hope that all of this belief turns into a lot of wins.I'm sure I'm a fool but I believe it will(once again).

Alright, I see what you mean. As a baseball realist and overall fan of the sport I realize this team is probably to be around .500 most likely.

But isn't what makes this sport wonderful the hope, and wonder and possibly that we *could* do it? That feeling at this time of year that maybe, just maybe we win 90 games and it's a summer we remember forever. I think of 1999 as one of those summers even though we fell tragically short. It was magical. Just the fact that we've got that possibility and some young talent to root for, that is what this sport is all about IMO..... and what makes it great (kind of like golfers describing loving that sound of the ball finding the cup) it's addicting! :cool:

[BLEEDS]

I believe that Volquez and Cueto will out pitch Harang and Arroyo and be our 1 - 2 pitchers in 2010.

I believe that Dickerson will do only OK and eventually be a fourth-outfielder type of player in the future.

I believe that the young guns in the bullpen (Roenicke, Herrera) will get a chance this season, sooner than later.

I believe that Bruce will have a breakout season this year. He's just too good.

I believe the 5th rotation spot will still be an adventure this year, once an injury happens (and it will happen)

I believe that, if we are holding our own in mid-May, we will trade for a SS.

Interesting takes!!

IF Volquez and Cueto have better numbers than Harang and Arroyo - I hope it's because Harang and Arroyo aren't having Off-years! You could argue that this already occurred last year for that matter...

I too have high hopes for Roenicke, he's got good stuff. I hope he at least allows Weathers to ride off into the sunset.

WOW, how I wish we could have traded for a SS; unfortunately since we didn't get our Big Bopper in LF, having a no-stick glove there is a luxury we can't afford. We could have went with Janish if we had a proven .850/.900 OPS in LF. We should have went after a Cabrera or a Hudson who both have a bit of pop, but we know the deal...
Not really sure who we could go after in a trade for a SS in mid-May, but I think it's more likely we go until June/July and see how Agon progresses, but I think JHJ is unfortunately going to be Plan B at Short. UGH!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[JBChance]

Interesting takes!!

IF Volquez and Cueto have better numbers than Harang and Arroyo - I hope it's because Harang and Arroyo aren't having Off-years! You could argue that this already occurred last year for that matter...

I too have high hopes for Roenicke, he's got good stuff. I hope he at least allows Weathers to ride off into the sunset.

WOW, how I wish we could have traded for a SS; unfortunately since we didn't get our Big Bopper in LF, having a no-stick glove there is a luxury we can't afford. We could have went with Janish if we had a proven .850/.900 OPS in LF. We should have went after a Cabrera or a Hudson who both have a bit of pop, but we know the deal...
Not really sure who we could go after in a trade for a SS in mid-May, but I think it's more likely we go until June/July and see how Agon progresses, but I think JHJ is unfortunately going to be Plan B at Short. UGH!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Thanks. I like my thoughts to be called interesting rather than weird :)

Volquez is already ahead of both and I think Cueto is right there already. The place he needs to improve is in the IP department. He throws too many pitches early and can't get deep in the game. That's where he's bound to improve by learning to not waste as many pitches. He has the least amount of pitches per inning of all the potential starters this spring, so he's definitely on the right track. Harang will be improved from last year, but I don't think he's showing, so far, the return to his best form. Arroyo will be what he is: a league avg. innings eater and 3rd or 4th slot pitcher. With their stats being similar last year, Cueto should take the leap over them, imo.

Someone of the Bray, Weathers, Burton, Cordero (I think Rhodes will be OK) will go down with Bray being the likely candidate. The young guys will get a shot w/ Herrera being the first up - he's doing better than Roenicke. Viola, while throwing well, needs some AAA under his belt. I think if Weathers starts to fade, Roenicke is right there.

Our SS position is a mess. I absolutely agree with you about the lack of pop/ OBP in the OF forces the hand and makes ANOTHER hole in the lineup something that can't happen. Fact is, so far in ST, Janish is our best slugger at SS :eek:, Hairston/ Kepp is a blooper machine (6 errors), and AGon hasn't put it together because of, shocking as it sounds, injury. Our only hope is AGon and, although I hope I'm wrong, I think he will be on the DL. So, it will be a contingent of Hairston (struggling, not good D), Keppinger (struggling, not good D), and Janish/ Rosales (not good bat, decent D). So, if we are in it in mid-may (pitching excellent, Bruce/ Votto go off, and Dickerson/ Gomes smoke pitching), we will have the worst position on the team as the SS. If the FO thinks we can compete, they will use whoever is doing decent in the IF "supersub" department and Bray/ Masset to trade for a SS and therefore give us a shot at being in contention at the All-Star break. I think the off-season went all "wait and see" and if they believe we will be in it, they will jump a little earlier than expected.

[DaytonFlyer]

I believe that I have no idea whatsoever to expect from Dickerson but my gut is telling me that he's going to disappoint.

Mine too. Hope we're both wrong.

[xavr1]

Not sure if anyone already saw this and posted it, but here are some of Peter Gammons "beliefs" about the 2009 Reds:

The Reds can contend in the NL Central. The Cubs still have issues to be determined, but before everyone puts Cincinnati in second place, the Cardinals could triple the number of starts for Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and surprise everyone again. And if the Brewers can straighten out their pitching and if their exceptionally talented everyday players all mesh, then they are going to be very dangerous.

But while the 2008 Reds were quantifiably one of the game's worst defensive teams, if Alex Gonzalez is healthy and Ramon Hernandez bounces back, they will be much better defensively with only one below-average position (third base). Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez are big-timers with high ceilings, Bronson Arroyo is as tough as it gets, they have five-hole pitching depth with Micah Owings and Homer Bailey. So if Aaron Harang is healthy, the Reds have good starting pitching and a deep bullpen. Can they win 83-86 games? Yes, they can, maybe more if Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips all take off.

[RSNtransplant]

I believe the Reds need Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Owings, and Baily to average at least 25 Starts.

I believe they need EE, to go the other way with some consistency and hit > .280, so he can bat 4th.

I believe they need the bullpen to pitch as good as it did last year.

I believe they need to win 15 in April and stay within 5 games of first in late July.

I believe a veteran LHP and/or RH power bat couldn't hurt.

I believe if all the above happen they win 91 games, and go into the playoffs with the starters no one wants to face.

[He got it!]

I believe that if a lot of these optimistic predictions come true this year, Redszone will not give Dusty Baker any of the credit.

[Captain Hook]

I believe that if a lot of these optimistic predictions come true this year, Redszone will not give Dusty Baker any of the credit.

I believe your right.

[BLEEDS]

I believe we may be in store for more games like we saw against the Yankess yesterday - where our #1 & #2 hitters go 1-10 including 5 K's; 4 errors by our "pitching and defense" oriented lineup.

In fact, the whole week was pretty horrible, especially at the top of the lineup.

Yes, I know, we don't face the Yankees & the Rays much, but we're going to struggle to score runs against Average pitching, and REALLY Struggle to score runs against Good, let alone, Great, pitching.

Maybe I shouldn't say "I believe", I should say "I'm afraid"...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[will5979]

Maybe I shouldn't say "I believe", I should say "I'm afraid"...

PEACE

-BLEEDS


Good one, I'm going to plagarise now.

I'm afraid we made a mistake by not going after FA Adam Dunn, not by trading him cause we got Owings, but by not pursuing him in the offseason.

I'm afraid Dusty Baker will never have a winning season in the Queen City.

I'm afraid we are still years away form a winning season.

I'm afraid I'll never again be able to witness the Reds winning the fall classic.

I'm afraid that the FO doesn't really care about winning, but rather just being "competitive."