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View Full Version : Bailey gonna make the team?



Ghosts of 1990
03-31-2009, 05:20 PM
Why hasn't he thrown in over a week......

Kind of weird. Is he gonna make the team or no?

Root Down
03-31-2009, 05:23 PM
There is a thread about this on the ORG. It appears possible that he was sent down thus solidifying Owings as the 5th starter. I've been surfing the net trying to find something official on this but haven't been able to find anything.

Kingspoint
03-31-2009, 06:04 PM
I thought I heard on Baseball Tonight Last night (Monday) that he was sent down.

Any confirmations on this?

mroby85
03-31-2009, 06:08 PM
They said that on ESPN, the other night, when talking about Owings as a possible sleeper pick, I just wondered if they were right, cuz I hadn't heard anything from the Reds.

Ghosts of 1990
03-31-2009, 06:52 PM
Oh wow so after all that he got sent down...... sucks

xavr1
03-31-2009, 07:24 PM
So much for that long relief role...

gedred69
03-31-2009, 09:26 PM
Yeah, the starter turned reliever thing sure worked for Papelbon. I would love for Homer to get a similar path.

jmac
03-31-2009, 09:30 PM
The relief then starter worked pretty well for Soto as well. I would sure rather see him get in a game than Massett.

Eric_the_Red
03-31-2009, 09:44 PM
Remember when Johan Santana was long relief for about 2 years for the Twins?

Ghosts of 1990
03-31-2009, 10:00 PM
The reason we are where we are is because of decisions like this. We make 5th place decisions over and over.

Shawn_RedsFan
03-31-2009, 10:27 PM
Bailey is pitching tomorrow for us so, we will have to wait to see what happens. IMO he should make the team and be the 5th starter and put micah in the bullpen

Ghosts of 1990
03-31-2009, 10:31 PM
Pshh. Micah and Bailey should both be in the rotation.

Harang as the opening day starter and #1? Thats disaster waiting to happen. Arroyo should be DL'd or Harang should be in long relief if things were fair.

Or as high as I am on Johnny Cueto........ he deserves a shot no more then Bailey right now

Shawn_RedsFan
03-31-2009, 10:34 PM
I personally think harang will be fine, but as for arroyo i think he should put on the DL (forgot to mention that in last post) and traded later in the year. I mean we don't need arroyo at all anymore considering he doesn't bring much to the table.

Shawn_RedsFan
03-31-2009, 10:35 PM
but if a decision was made to whether it should be bailey or micah in the rotation is should be bailey which backs up my original post

JBChance
04-01-2009, 12:59 AM
I personally think harang will be fine, but as for arroyo i think he should put on the DL (forgot to mention that in last post) and traded later in the year. I mean we don't need arroyo at all anymore considering he doesn't bring much to the table.

He brings 200+ IP each season. No way you can pencil in either Owings or Bailey for that. He's had double digit wins in 4 out of the last 5 seasons.
I'm not a huge Arroyo "fan", but you can't deny his value to the club, whether we keep him another season or put him on the block.

Putting him on the DL then trading him? Not the best way to build value, imo.

Ghosts of 1990
04-01-2009, 04:24 AM
He brings 200+ IP each season. No way you can pencil in either Owings or Bailey for that. He's had double digit wins in 4 out of the last 5 seasons.
I'm not a huge Arroyo "fan", but you can't deny his value to the club, whether we keep him another season or put him on the block.

Putting him on the DL then trading him? Not the best way to build value, imo.


I get what your saying, but if he is hurt; he's hurt.

Natty Redlocks
04-01-2009, 08:49 AM
I get what your saying, but if he is hurt; he's hurt.

As long as he doesn't do any more of those horrible JTM spots this year I say we keep him.

JBChance
04-01-2009, 10:23 AM
I get what your saying, but if he is hurt; he's hurt.

If he is truly hurt, then the DL is the only option for now. From what's been reported, he thinks he'll be able to get the carpal tunnel issue under control.

Mostly, I was responding to the comment that he doesn't bring much to the table. Not accurate.

You might argue that he's overpaid for what he brings, but that is another issue.

xavr1
04-01-2009, 02:23 PM
If Bailey doesnt make the team, and no SPs get hurt or underperform, are we going to see him in AAA all year? In other words, if he doesnt make it as a long reliever out of camp, does that essentially mean he is a starter for good?

Root Down
04-01-2009, 03:01 PM
If Bailey doesnt make the team, and no SPs get hurt or underperform, are we going to see him in AAA all year? In other words, if he doesnt make it as a long reliever out of camp, does that essentially mean he is a starter for good?

At his age I don't think there is such thing as "for good". He is far too young to be able to project his future like that. I would say that not making the team out of camp means they still want him to be a starter but doesn't set that in stone. If he gets sent down, it is an opportunity for him to continue to develop in the starter role. However, with no options left I wouldn't be suprised to see him return to the major league level as a reliever unless they don't mind the risk up losing him to waivers (which I'm sure they do).

REDblooded
04-01-2009, 04:50 PM
Pretty impressive line today...

6 innings - 2 earned runs - 8 k's - 1 bb

Also accounted for 2 of the reds 6 hits....

Bumstead
04-01-2009, 05:12 PM
It's going to be hard to send Bailey to AAA after the way he has pitched this spring. It's also going to be hard for the Reds to tell Owings or Bailey that they did not make the rotation...they both pitched well enough to earn a spot in the rotation and/or on the pitching staff. I think having them both on the staff helps the Reds currently and down the line as Bailey progresses.

Bum

OesterPoster
04-01-2009, 05:19 PM
Interesting tidbit from Hal McCoy a few minutes ago. He talked to the guys loading players' vehicles, and they said Bailey's pickup truck is on the load going to Cincinnati...as of right now.

Ghosts of 1990
04-01-2009, 05:47 PM
Interesting tidbit from Hal McCoy a few minutes ago. He talked to the guys loading players' vehicles, and they said Bailey's pickup truck is on the load going to Cincinnati...as of right now.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kingspoint
04-01-2009, 06:43 PM
Can someone answer this? Does Bailey have a problem holding runners? The Astros ran at will against him today.

Shawn_RedsFan
04-01-2009, 07:20 PM
yes he does that is why they have tried to change his mechanics in the past

Shawn_RedsFan
04-01-2009, 07:21 PM
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

that is AWESOME NEWS!!!! good for you homer

gedred69
04-01-2009, 08:58 PM
Homer pitched today against a primarily starting Line-up, and Tom and Mercker couldn't say enough glowing things about how sharp he was. (The 2nd run was a wind-aided HR). I hope the decision is to keep him as long relief rather than Masset. I don't see him getting any more effective at AAA. Time has come to let him grow at the top level.

Ghosts of 1990
04-01-2009, 10:17 PM
This would make me as happy as anything if he's on the big league roster to start the season!

(Along with Bruce playing well and us opening up 8-0)

jmac
04-01-2009, 11:02 PM
Bailey has earned it this ST. I have to agree with the cowboy on this, you take your best north.

Shawn_RedsFan
04-01-2009, 11:47 PM
hmm...i wonder how many people a year ago thought homer was "done" and he should be traded....even though he hasn't proved anything in the big leagues yet, but still......

jmac
04-01-2009, 11:51 PM
hmm...i wonder how many people a year ago thought homer was "done" and he should be traded....even though he hasn't proved anything in the big leagues yet, but still......

I didnt think he was "done" but I sure didnt expect to see him showing me this much. Yes, it is only ST but for his age and coming off a terrible season where is ERA seemed like it was around 7, he is really impressing me so far.

REDblooded
04-02-2009, 12:22 AM
It cracked me up when people were ragging on him... He was being forced to use his secondary stuff more to help him progress as a pitcher... That's why his velocity was "down"...

Shawn_RedsFan
04-02-2009, 12:26 AM
It cracked me up when people were ragging on him... He was being forced to use his secondary stuff more to help him progress as a pitcher... That's why his velocity was "down"...

yea, i didn't really know what to say when they were giving up on him. I mean if homer was lets say 28 or 29 i would understand

Ghosts of 1990
04-02-2009, 12:28 AM
Here's what is scary.

If they gave homer bailey the 34 starts he should get like the rest of our SP; he might out pitch (fill in the blank).... and give us a young rotation of Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Owings..... if Bailey turns out like Volquez has people are talking Reds to the series that quickly.

Ghosts of 1990
04-02-2009, 05:18 PM
Hal Mccoy thinks that Bailey will win the 5th spot:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2009/04/02/some_unsolicitd_advance_dont_s.html

redsfandan
04-03-2009, 10:06 AM
I'm starting to wonder if our rotation will be:

1) Harang
2) Volquez
3) Cueto
4) Owings
5) Bailey

with Arroyo on the DL

BLEEDS
04-03-2009, 10:24 AM
I personally think harang will be fine, but as for arroyo i think he should put on the DL (forgot to mention that in last post) and traded later in the year. I mean we don't need arroyo at all anymore considering he doesn't bring much to the table.

That's not a 5th place decision - that's a 6th place decision!!:p:

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
04-03-2009, 10:49 AM
I'm starting to wonder if our rotation will be:

1) Harang
2) Volquez
3) Cueto
4) Owings
5) Bailey

with Arroyo on the DL

:beerme:

windycitybuck
04-03-2009, 10:55 AM
Couple things about Homer: it's spring training, it's spring training, and did I mention it's spring training? Has he had a nice spring...yes! Should he make the team...probably. Does that mean anything...No!! Until he shows me something in the big leagues I'm not buying what he's selling. He hasn't been good at all so far in the majors, so right now he has as much going as that left hander a few years ago, Josias Manzanillas (sp ?) So many on here that run hot and cold about so many things it's down right funny.

Ghosts of 1990
04-03-2009, 11:10 AM
Couple things about Homer: it's spring training, it's spring training, and did I mention it's spring training? Has he had a nice spring...yes! Should he make the team...probably. Does that mean anything...No!! Until he shows me something in the big leagues I'm not buying what he's selling. He hasn't been good at all so far in the majors, so right now he has as much going as that left hander a few years ago, Josias Manzanillas (sp ?) So many on here that run hot and cold about so many things it's down right funny.

1. Josias Manzanillo was a righthander.

2. Homer needs the opportunity.

schmidty622
04-03-2009, 11:25 AM
1. Josias Manzanillo was a righthander.

2. Homer needs the opportunity.

Homer does deserve the opportunity, and If Arroyo is DL bound he'll get it in the rotation.

If Arroyo does not hit the DL Homer should be in the pen. If it's good enough for Santana, it's good enough for Bailey.

BLEEDS
04-03-2009, 12:54 PM
Homer deserves a shot at being "sold high" IMO...

Contrary to most other folks - I'd rather trade him than Arroyo. I think we could get WAY more back from Homer - who has yet to prove he can do anything at the MLB level - than we would for a proven, solid veteran in Arroyo. Primarily because of the contract. Potential and Cheap are good things most teams are looking for these days.

Last year we couldn't have got anything for Homer, when he looked like near-bust material. Now I bet a lot of scouts are taking notice. I say trade him while his value is high. We have a small window of opportunity these next couple years while all of our young guys are cheap - SO, even if Homer started to develop, there is no way we can afford to start paying Arbitration $$ and/or Long Term contracts to Bruce, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, EE, Homer... somebody's going to have to go eventually, even if/when Harang and Arroyo are no longer on the payroll.

Trade one of them now and take a shot at winning in the next year or two.

It makes so much sense, that's why it will NEVER happen.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bumstead
04-03-2009, 01:26 PM
Not saying you are wrong but as far as prospects and young players go, we have a lot more 'excess' at Corner Infield and Corner Outfield spots than we have as far as Potential #2 SP's...Yes, we have several good young prospects at High-A and above that will potentially be up in the short term, and Bailey is one, but we really only have 1 (ONE) potential top of the rotation starting pitcher, and it's Bailey. I'm just saying...

Bailey has earned the roster spot and if someone claims Masset when he is cut, we aren't going to miss him. Besides, you only trade one of these prospects if that is going to make you competitive now. Would adding 1 hitter make the Reds competitive this year? Really? My opinion is beer-up :beerme: and watch them grow for a year and see where these prospects are next year and how the team has developed; we will be better able to compete then.

Bum

redsfandan
04-03-2009, 01:29 PM
C'mon Bleeds, seriously?

"Last year we couldn't have got anything for Homer, when he looked like near-bust material."
He "has yet to prove he can do anything at the MLB level."
Your words.

Do you really think a few weeks in spring training amounting to what 20 ip has people thinking of him as a top prospect again? I don't. And if Homer HAS turned things around wouln't we want the cheap Bailey to replace the expensive Arroyo??

By the way, unless he finally fulfills his promise I doubt EE will have a LTC.

schmidty622
04-03-2009, 02:34 PM
C'mon Bleeds, seriously?

"Last year we couldn't have got anything for Homer, when he looked like near-bust material."
He "has yet to prove he can do anything at the MLB level."
Your words.

Do you really think a few weeks in spring training amounting to what 20 ip has people thinking of him as a top prospect again? I don't. And if Homer HAS turned things around wouln't we want the cheap Bailey to replace the expensive Arroyo??

By the way, unless he finally fulfills his promise I doubt EE will have a LTC.


Exactly :thumbup:

BLEEDS
04-03-2009, 04:40 PM
Not saying you are wrong but as far as prospects and young players go, we have a lot more 'excess' at Corner Infield and Corner Outfield spots than we have as far as Potential #2 SP's...Yes, we have several good young prospects at High-A and above that will potentially be up in the short term, and Bailey is one, but we really only have 1 (ONE) potential top of the rotation starting pitcher, and it's Bailey. I'm just saying...


I'm not talking about prospects, I'm talking about guys in the majors, now, who are eating up their Arbitration Clock. EE was just on it, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, and Bruce just started theirs up. We add Homer to the list and 2011/2012 looks to be about the "end of the era" as far as cheap young talent is concerned - at least with those guys.
Consequently, that is when Harang and Arroyo and Cordero and BP (ugh, I shudder to think) are ending their high-dollar contracts.
That is what I mean by window.



Bailey has earned the roster spot and if someone claims Masset when he is cut, we aren't going to miss him. Besides, you only trade one of these prospects if that is going to make you competitive now. Would adding 1 hitter make the Reds competitive this year? Really? My opinion is beer-up :beerme: and watch them grow for a year and see where these prospects are next year and how the team has developed; we will be better able to compete then.


IMO, the answer to that was an astounding "YES!"

Of course that was before they added a -20 VORP player in Willy Tavares to play CF and lead off, virtually hamstringing our offense.

Now, maybe not, but it could still happen. Injuries happen, sometimes, to guys who play CF, in on-field or off-field mishaps, just sayin, you never know...
But seriously, it would be nice to have one guy in the OF who could actually prove to be above average offensively. Bruce is a shoe-in to replace a 40 year old Griffey, but that's about it, you hope for more, but you can't pencil it in. Our OF Offense sucks right now, and now amount of Defense is going to make up the run and hence win totals required to make a serious run.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
04-03-2009, 04:42 PM
if Homer HAS turned things around wouln't we want the cheap Bailey to replace the expensive Arroyo??


IMO, no. Read my other posts.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfandan
04-03-2009, 04:46 PM
IMO, no. Read my other posts.

Sorry Bleeds, but that just doesn't make much sense to me.

TC81190
04-03-2009, 05:23 PM
Homer deserves a shot at being "sold high" IMO...

Contrary to most other folks - I'd rather trade him than Arroyo. I think we could get WAY more back from Homer - who has yet to prove he can do anything at the MLB level - than we would for a proven, solid veteran in Arroyo. Primarily because of the contract. Potential and Cheap are good things most teams are looking for these days.

Last year we couldn't have got anything for Homer, when he looked like near-bust material. Now I bet a lot of scouts are taking notice. I say trade him while his value is high. We have a small window of opportunity these next couple years while all of our young guys are cheap - SO, even if Homer started to develop, there is no way we can afford to start paying Arbitration $$ and/or Long Term contracts to Bruce, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, EE, Homer... somebody's going to have to go eventually, even if/when Harang and Arroyo are no longer on the payroll.

Trade one of them now and take a shot at winning in the next year or two.

It makes so much sense, that's why it will NEVER happen.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
Actually, no, that doesn't make sense at all. Trade one of your highest-ceiling (not to mention cheapest) starters when it appears that he is beginning to put it all together? That is, rather than trading your expensive, league average starter who is probably about to be on the decline.

I'd also submit that Bailey and Arroyo would probably get the same value in return in a trade. His potential v. Arroyo's established worth.

BLEEDS
04-03-2009, 09:21 PM
Actually, no, that doesn't make sense at all. Trade one of your highest-ceiling (not to mention cheapest) starters when it appears that he is beginning to put it all together? That is, rather than trading your expensive, league average starter who is probably about to be on the decline.


I disagree whole-heartedly, for the reasons I mentioned, plus more.
Sure it's good from a short-term payroll perspective - if you want the owners to make more money, because if you haven't noticed we haven't spent any money to secure any real players for our biggest needs on this team when it really matters.

It's amazing that Reds fans would underestimate the value of "league average" when it comes to pitching. Arroyo is "league average" at his WORST!!! We are all hoping Homer MIGHT be league "average" in a year or two. Sure he MAY be a TOR guy - but he may keep on being what he's looked like the last two years.

Arroyo's a shoe-in for 200+ innings - he's done it the last 4 years, and he's got a rubber arm so he can go on 3 days rest, etc...
And what in the world would make you think Arroyo is on the decline?!? OH, because he had a high ERA last year? He also won 15 games, he's a gamer pure and simple. You know what you're going to get from him.

Trade Homer for a REAL shortstop and/or an OF power prospect. Then you make a run in the final two years of this window of opportunity which is closing fast. Otherwise, we'll be perpetually "almost there" - which means always a piece or three away from really doing anything, kinda like what we've been for the last 10 years or so...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

JBChance
04-04-2009, 12:15 AM
I can see merit in both the arguments about Bailey.

On one hand, if he has "turned it around" and is on the right path to stay in the rotation, it would be foolish to trade him in his "cheap" years and keep a more expensive, lower upside option such as Arroyo or even Harang (if he doesn't revert to '07 from).

On the other hand, what if Bailey is never going to be the starter that he was hoped to be? Last year, we would have all been shocked to see him come back the way he has. His trade value was in the basement and a lot of folks were labeling him an unmitigated failure. He tanked in the majors and then proceeded to stink it up at AAA. Hope was lost. Now, that his value may be on the upswing, it might be the right move to trade him. Of course, his value hasn't come back, yet. Before any team believes his worth is back to a middle/ top of the rotation guy, he'll need to put up some good #'s for at least a month, probaby two. Maybe more.

So, there are arguments both ways. We will need to trade someone to get the CF, LF, SS, possible 3B that the team lacks. If we trade Arroyo, and Bailey goes bust, we're got a hole in the rotation. If we trade Bailey and Arroyo stays off the DL, we still have a decent rotation and gain a position player(s). However, Arroyo could go on the DL and be expensive too, us losing the "cheap" Bailey.

We will have to < gulp > trust the FO and the coaching staff to determine the value of each pitcher and trade the correct one.

I believe Bailey to be starter material. Maybe not immediately now, but this year. The correct move, imo, is to keep him and trade Arroyo/ Harang at the deadline, when the trade will net the greatest amount of talent. Then, we keep Bailey through the inexpensive years and free up $$$ to sign FA or draft picks.

gedred69
04-04-2009, 02:24 PM
I'm wondering if Bailey might get his chance now, with the way the Futures team jumped all over Arroyo last night. I think that Carpal Tunnel may be effecting him, and he ends up DLed soon.

Ghosts of 1990
04-04-2009, 05:00 PM
I'm wondering if Bailey might get his chance now, with the way the Futures team jumped all over Arroyo last night. I think that Carpal Tunnel may be effecting him, and he ends up DLed soon.

I hope so. We've seen what Arroyo can do. I don't think we've seen what Homer can possibly do.

Ghosts of 1990
04-04-2009, 08:41 PM
The lastest from Erardi.....

Checking out Arroyo
Posted by johnerardi at 4/4/2009 3:49 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Bronson Arroyo is being examined by a physician in Cincinnati Saturday to determine the soundness of his right hand. He has complained this spring of carpal tunnel syndrome.

"We'll see where that goes," Reds GM Walt Jocketty said in Dayton, where the Reds played a game Saturday against the Future Stars. "The great thing about where were are right now...is we have depth in our rotation, and depth in our bullpen. If something happens to one of our starters, we feel very confident we have somebody we can reach to who will be very competitive at the major league level."

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...cincinnati.com

RED VAN HOT
04-05-2009, 11:32 AM
The Reds don't actually need the 5th starter until April 15. I don't know if the Futures game counts as a ML game. If not, Arroyo last pitched in a ML game on March 29. One option is to put him on the DL retroactive to March 29 with plans to activate him for the April 15 start. They could use the roster spot for a position player until Arroyo returns.

schmidty622
04-05-2009, 11:39 AM
The Reds don't actually need the 5th starter until April 15. I don't know if the Futures game counts as a ML game. If not, Arroyo last pitched in a ML game on March 29. One option is to put him on the DL retroactive to March 29 with plans to activate him for the April 15 start. They could use the roster spot for a position player until Arroyo returns.

Or to carry an extra arm in the Pen.

Ghosts of 1990
04-05-2009, 03:51 PM
Bailey has been sent to AAA. Bronson Arroyo is "fine" health-wise. Tremendous.

JBChance
04-05-2009, 05:21 PM
Bailey has been sent to AAA. Bronson Arroyo is "fine" health-wise. Tremendous.

Well, they pushed Bronson's start back to Sunday by putting Owings in his place. They must think he'll be OK by then.

I don't have problem w/ Owings over Bailey, right now. Owings had a great spring and showed his worth. Plus, he has more experience/ success than Homer, in the majors.

Bailey will get his shot. Give it time.

Ghosts of 1990
04-05-2009, 05:47 PM
Who knows what could happen to Bailey down in AAA though. Injury. More inconcsistency.

He was better then Owings (who was also great) and he's better then Arroyo now. This was a 5th place move IMO

REDblooded
04-05-2009, 06:30 PM
Gimme some Homer Baby!

RED VAN HOT
04-05-2009, 07:20 PM
As much as I want Homer to succeed, I think this is a good decision. I do not believe he has yet established himself as a consistent starter. He could accomplish that in the first half of this season at AAA. Given his option situation and up and down performance of the last two years, it is better to wait until there is high degree of confidence that he can stick.

Shawn_RedsFan
04-05-2009, 11:49 PM
Any chance of him getting called up really soon??

A. Bronson arroyo to DL after his start
B. Or when taveras gets back to playing maybe they will send mcdonald back down??

Btrester151
04-06-2009, 12:02 AM
Im sorry if this has already been discussed, but does anyone know where homer was sitting with his fastball this spring(velosity) and what other pitches was he throwing for strikes? I am very happy with homers progress this spring. I hope that he continues pitching this good for the bats.

It is so good to finally have depth in starting pitching.

Eric_the_Red
04-06-2009, 12:16 AM
I was a bit disappointed to see Homer sent to AAA but I think in the long run it will work out. Bailey in long relief would be too difficult to get consistent innings, especially if our starters perform as they are capable.

And calling this a "fifth place move" is ludicrous. How many fifth place teams have this "problem" of pitching depth? And if Arroyo isn't on the DL, he has to be in the rotation. Let's expand our vision of this team beyond the last 7 days and next 7 days.

BLEEDS
04-06-2009, 09:03 AM
Who knows what could happen to Bailey down in AAA though. Injury. More inconcsistency.

He was better then Owings (who was also great) and he's better then Arroyo now. This was a 5th place move IMO

You think we're better than the Pirates? ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

DaytonFlyer
04-06-2009, 09:51 AM
Homer needs to pitch. He'll be up as soon as one of our starters hits the DL... we all know it'll happen at some point.

Or maybe after they decide to switch Owings to LF permanently. ;)