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gonelong
04-01-2009, 01:16 PM
Ok, time for Gonelong's 8th annual Reds Win prediction thread.

1. Give a number of Ws you project.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. It's a prediction, not a hope.

Once I return from the game I'll compute the average.

Hopefully the Sundeck will organize a thread and take up a friendly challenge from the ORG group. Last year ORG was a bit closer that the Sundeck. :beerme:

My prediction for the Reds is that they will win 78 games.

Go Reds!

GL


Average of ~7 wins too optimistic as a group.




Old Red Guard
YR RZ Act Ptgh
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66421) 81.6, 74, 72 (+ 7.6)
07 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) 81.4, 72, 75 (+ 9.2)
06 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) 76.7, 80, 76 (- 3.3)
05 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) 84.7, 73, 75 (+ 11.7)
04 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) 76.8, 76, 67 (+ 0.8)
03 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) 87.9, 69, 63 (+ 18.9)
02 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) 79.7, 75, 75 (+ 4.7)

Sundeck
YR RZ Act Ptgh
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1591907&postcount=67) 85.1, 74, 72 (+11.1)

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2009, 01:17 PM
83 wins.

This thread is always one of my favorites.

JaxRed
04-01-2009, 01:18 PM
90 Wins

TRF
04-01-2009, 01:18 PM
Ok, my ACTUAL prediction...

87 wins

*BaseClogger*
04-01-2009, 01:18 PM
I've been looking forward to this thread!

I'll say 77 wins...

redsfaninbsg
04-01-2009, 01:19 PM
80 wins, come just short of .500.

redsfan30
04-01-2009, 01:20 PM
80 wins.

edabbs44
04-01-2009, 01:20 PM
78 wins

LawFive
04-01-2009, 01:23 PM
79 wins

bucksfan2
04-01-2009, 01:23 PM
83

Tempered optimism.

RichRed
04-01-2009, 01:26 PM
I said 76 last year and was "optimistic" by two wins.

I'm upping the ante this year: 80 wins.

TheBurn
04-01-2009, 01:29 PM
84 Ws

DoogMinAmo
04-01-2009, 01:33 PM
Eighty-Two Double-'U's :)

dougdirt
04-01-2009, 01:47 PM
84 wins.

Falls City Beer
04-01-2009, 01:48 PM
82 Ws

Danny Serafini
04-01-2009, 01:51 PM
82

cumberlandreds
04-01-2009, 01:53 PM
78

lollipopcurve
04-01-2009, 01:55 PM
76

TheNext44
04-01-2009, 01:56 PM
Brain: 84 (the one that counts in the avg.)

Gut: 89 (not heart, not hope, but feeling in my gut)

BRM
04-01-2009, 01:58 PM
78

Screwball
04-01-2009, 01:59 PM
Same as I said last year: 80.

membengal
04-01-2009, 02:02 PM
82.

KronoRed
04-01-2009, 02:04 PM
74 wins with 88 losses.

Puffy
04-01-2009, 02:05 PM
Brain: 84 (the one that counts in the avg.)

Gut: 89 (not heart, not hope, but feeling in my gut)

You sure thats not just gas?? ;)

I have never predicted a winning season since this bad boy started (thanks Bob Boone!!) but I am more optimistic this year than in any years past because of the pitching. With that I say:

83-79.

Vada Pinson Fan
04-01-2009, 02:09 PM
The losing streak is broken. 83

marcshoe
04-01-2009, 02:09 PM
85

UKFlounder
04-01-2009, 02:14 PM
68

RedFanAlways1966
04-01-2009, 02:16 PM
73 wins.

thatcoolguy_22
04-01-2009, 02:24 PM
The losing stops .... Next season. 79

oneupper
04-01-2009, 02:30 PM
76...
No..wait the Dusty resignation thing was an April's Fool joke.

make that 71

OUReds
04-01-2009, 02:35 PM
76

nate
04-01-2009, 02:35 PM
I'm going to keep saying 81 wins until it happens.

81 wins*.

*plus or minus 10

MississippiRed
04-01-2009, 02:36 PM
82 wins

redsmetz
04-01-2009, 02:37 PM
I'm not sure I've participated before, but here goes: 83 wins, the losing stops now.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-01-2009, 02:42 PM
77 wins

But I really feel this will be the last year (for a while, I hope) that my number will be lower than 82.

Homer Bailey
04-01-2009, 02:48 PM
72 Wins.

and LOL at the 2003 RZ prediction.

mbgrayson
04-01-2009, 02:53 PM
84 wins.

AmarilloRed
04-01-2009, 02:55 PM
82 wins. The starting pitching is what gives us our first winning season in a while, not the offense.

LoganBuck
04-01-2009, 02:58 PM
Taveras leading off
Phillips batting cleanup
No Griffey/Dunn
Gonzalez batting second

This team is going to struggle to score runs, and nothing I have seen this spring changes any of that.

75

Degenerate39
04-01-2009, 03:06 PM
85

Ltlabner
04-01-2009, 03:12 PM
70

bucksfan2
04-01-2009, 03:15 PM
70

Thats it?!?!?!?

I was expecting something much worse that 70. That is far from epic fail :D

Patrick Bateman
04-01-2009, 03:16 PM
82

IowaRed
04-01-2009, 03:19 PM
I was off by 1 in my prediction of 75 last year, I hope I'm off by much more this year.

72

deltachi8
04-01-2009, 03:23 PM
74 Wins. I want to say 81, but I think the pitching will be a mixed bag and will not be good enough to offset the loss in run production.

New Fever
04-01-2009, 03:27 PM
88 wins

reds44
04-01-2009, 03:29 PM
80 wins

Cyclone792
04-01-2009, 03:31 PM
77 wins.

I expect the pitching to be better than we've seen in quite some time - though that doesn't say much - but this team is likely going to have a serious on-base percentage problem that I expect to cut into the offensive run production.

Joseph
04-01-2009, 03:31 PM
84 wins

RFS62
04-01-2009, 03:36 PM
80

The losing stops now.


No, wait....

_Sir_Charles_
04-01-2009, 03:40 PM
89 wins and solidly in second place...no wild card though.

Edskin
04-01-2009, 04:04 PM
84

RedsManRick
04-01-2009, 04:07 PM
79 wins

On the bright side, I think our upper bound has increased significantly. In past years, an everything goes right outcome would still have left us in low 80's. This year, it would put us in the wild card hunt.

top6
04-01-2009, 04:08 PM
62

Scrap Irony
04-01-2009, 04:15 PM
82

Falls City Beer
04-01-2009, 04:17 PM
62

Is there a lockout midseason?

Caseyfan21
04-01-2009, 04:26 PM
85, maybe I'm too much of an optimist

StillFunkyB
04-01-2009, 04:33 PM
68

RollyInRaleigh
04-01-2009, 04:36 PM
82 wins

kbrake
04-01-2009, 04:56 PM
78

Raisor
04-01-2009, 05:01 PM
I'm going to say 75 wins.

And there was much rejoicing.

Reds Fanatic
04-01-2009, 05:06 PM
79 wins

dabvu2498
04-01-2009, 05:18 PM
85-77

cincrazy
04-01-2009, 05:18 PM
84 wins. A relatively weak division and a good rotation carries us, but the offense, while showing promise, has too many black holes to allow the team to go any further.

M2
04-01-2009, 05:22 PM
73-89

Tom Servo
04-01-2009, 05:29 PM
79 wins.

Roy Tucker
04-01-2009, 05:56 PM
I'll continue my role of Pollyanna, 3.5 sigma, and resident idiot...

93 wins.

Wooo!!!!!

Caveat Emperor
04-01-2009, 06:04 PM
I figure this team is good for about 76 wins.

Anything more would require a giant leap forward for Jay Bruce, a career year from Willy Taveras, a breakout season from Edwin Encarnacion, and at least one major midseason acquisition.

(And, hot damn -- I never looked back to last year's prediction thread. I hit dead-on with my guess.)

Mario-Rijo
04-01-2009, 06:21 PM
I figure this team is good for about 76 wins.

Anything more would require a giant leap forward for Jay Bruce, a career year from Willy Taveras, a breakout season from Edwin Encarnacion, and at least one major midseason acquisition.

(And, hot damn -- I never looked back to last year's prediction thread. I hit dead-on with my guess.)

Well that's just the thing isn't it, you have to figure the unbiased odds of the likelihood of any of those things actually happening. And figure the likelihood of most other guys having a similiar year as last. I happen to think that the pitching is improved (especially that 5th hole) and the defense is as well. I also like the bench a bit better also.

I think we are in for an improvement of up to 3-5 games without a big explosion by someone. However I expect an explosion of sorts from Jay Bruce which it's hopefully not wasted by sandwiching him between BP (if he hits into a lot of DP's) and Edwin (with his amazing inconsistency).

I'll split the difference and call it a 78 win team with a ceiling of about 81-82 wins unless there is some major addition to the club at some point.

paintmered
04-01-2009, 06:25 PM
74-88

No kool-aid this year :(

Red in Chicago
04-01-2009, 06:43 PM
now that we're on the "official" prediction thread, i'm going with 78

GAC
04-01-2009, 07:06 PM
74 wins

SirFelixCat
04-01-2009, 07:07 PM
I want to say 87, but I'll go with what I really think:


83 wins this year and setting the team up for a run in '10!

SMcGavin
04-01-2009, 07:22 PM
76 wins.

MWM
04-01-2009, 07:58 PM
69-93. this team is going to be awful. And if I had to take 69 as the over/under, I'd take the under.

Please, let me be wrong!!!!

Razor Shines
04-01-2009, 08:15 PM
89 losses.

Strikes Out Looking
04-01-2009, 09:02 PM
A scrappy 83 W's.

boognish
04-01-2009, 09:05 PM
77 wins.

dfs
04-01-2009, 09:23 PM
70 wins.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think that's a generous prediction.

rotnoid
04-01-2009, 10:46 PM
81 wins, 81 losses.

The losing stops now.

NC Reds
04-01-2009, 11:14 PM
76-86. The offense is going to be pretty poor. :(

HumnHilghtFreel
04-01-2009, 11:15 PM
78-84

Ron Madden
04-02-2009, 04:47 AM
I'll say 76-86.

:redszone:

Screwball
04-02-2009, 04:57 AM
69-93. this team is going to be awful. And if I had to take 69 as the over/under, I'd take the under.

Please, let me be wrong!!!!

I would easily take the over on that, and would be willing to bet on it. Perhaps a friendly avatar bet, MWM?

mth123
04-02-2009, 05:49 AM
74 Wins with the Runs scored dropping as predicted and the Runs allowed being a disappointment with defense again being the major factor. The huge hole in the IF defense that plays on the LF side of second base will become evident as the season goes on. The bright side of it all is that I think they can push for 90 wins in 2010 if the SS of the future is aquired and the extra work on the staff caused by the IF situation doesn't cause Volquez or Cueto to end up on Kremchek's table.

It's still going to be exciting. By season's end, Bruce and Votto will be legit stars and weaknesses will be addressed at the deadline with deals for Weathers and a few other pitchers put in place as the young hard throwing bullpen guys start to arrive in waves. Bailey will have a good year in AAA and make Arroyo expendable by season's end. The future is brighter than at any time since the md 90's. It's just another year (and acquisition or two) away.

Jpup
04-02-2009, 06:42 AM
70 if they are lucky and I don't believe in luck. :(

wheels
04-02-2009, 08:43 AM
70 wins.

MWM
04-02-2009, 09:17 AM
I would easily take the over on that, and would be willing to bet on it. Perhaps a friendly avatar bet, MWM?

You got it. :thumbup:

I hope to goodness you win. I want to be wrong, believe me. I'm just jaded being a Cincinnati sports fan.

George Anderson
04-02-2009, 10:18 AM
76-86

bucksfan
04-02-2009, 11:19 AM
84 - I am fairly optimistic that our continued solid pitching, more solidified and diverse bench (no more Froppers nor tri-headed punchless/defenseless catcher), can offset a potential decrease in offensive output (or at least in the power component).

coachw513
04-02-2009, 11:27 AM
80 wins

WMR
04-02-2009, 10:57 PM
72 wins

WVRedsFan
04-03-2009, 12:11 AM
I'm always an optimist at this point, but the lack of hitting (how often this spring has the Reds' line been 3-6-1?

81 wins unless they find some offense somehow. It's obvious that Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and many others aren't going to do the trick, so help is needed. I might revise that prediction if things change, but until then, it's 81.

westofyou
04-03-2009, 12:31 AM
82 wins, this is the 1938 Reds, 68, 87 or 1957... close but no cigar.

Ron Madden
04-03-2009, 02:40 AM
89 wins

I hope and pray your prediction comes closer than mine but whatever will be will be. One sure bet is that we are all ready for the start of the season.

:)

Tornon
04-03-2009, 02:53 AM
84 wins

Screwball
04-03-2009, 03:40 AM
You got it. :thumbup:

I hope to goodness you win. I want to be wrong, believe me. I'm just jaded being a Cincinnati sports fan.

Good man. Winner gets to pick the loser's avatar that the loser has to display for a while (during '09-'10 offseason?). I'm thinking something Cubs related... :evil:

Playadlc
04-03-2009, 04:13 AM
79 wins.

WebScorpion
04-03-2009, 03:52 PM
82 big Red wins!
:redcap:

Chip R
04-03-2009, 03:52 PM
76 wins

Highlifeman21
04-03-2009, 04:43 PM
75 Up
87 Down

MWM
04-03-2009, 10:17 PM
Good man. Winner gets to pick the loser's avatar that the loser has to display for a while (during '09-'10 offseason?). I'm thinking something Cubs related... :evil:

Oh, please no. ANYTHING, but that. :evil:

VR
04-03-2009, 10:38 PM
88

Kc61
04-04-2009, 12:27 AM
Optimistic about team's overall direction.

This year -- 76 wins.

Concerned that some of the pitchers will underperform.

Boss-Hog
04-04-2009, 01:59 AM
78 wins

Hoosier Red
04-04-2009, 10:45 AM
84 wins.

Crosley68
04-04-2009, 10:57 AM
Planets don't align properly......79-83

Always Red
04-04-2009, 04:13 PM
75 wins

pedro
04-04-2009, 04:25 PM
I'm going to say 83 wins again and will continue until it happens.

RedsBaron
04-04-2009, 07:57 PM
86-76.....winning record

sonny
04-04-2009, 08:01 PM
I'll say 81

.500 Baseball baby!

alloverjr
04-04-2009, 09:51 PM
74 wins. I mean, you gotta score some runs. And, don't think that pitching is as good as people have you believe. 2 questions in the rotation and one real big one at the end. In fact I've never been so empathetic at the start of a season in my life. Speed & defense.

hebroncougar
04-04-2009, 10:01 PM
73 wins.

Heath
04-04-2009, 10:25 PM
80 wins.

flyer85
04-04-2009, 11:04 PM
75 wins

AtomicDumpling
04-05-2009, 02:30 AM
73 Wins.

Jay Bruce and Joey Votto make the All Star team.
Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings and Aaron Harang have arm surgery.
Chris Dickerson takes over Centerfield after the All Star break.
Brandon Phillips wins the Gold Glove, but gets traded to the Mets on July 31st.
Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty get fired on October 1st.
Barry Larkin is hired as Manager.

*BaseClogger*
04-05-2009, 04:46 AM
Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty get fired on October 1st.

In the middle of a Cardinals series?

MrCinatit
04-05-2009, 07:32 AM
80 wins.

mbgrayson
04-05-2009, 09:52 AM
Hal McCoy says:

I see the Reds at 77-85 and fourth place. And if they finish above .500, I'll eat more spinach (instead of crow) than Popeye, who they probably could use in left field.

GoReds33
04-05-2009, 10:54 AM
78 wins is where I see them. Inconsistant pitching, and below-average offense aren't a recipe for winning.

nate
04-05-2009, 12:24 PM
73 Wins.

Jay Bruce and Joey Votto make the All Star team.
Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings and Aaron Harang have arm surgery.
Chris Dickerson takes over Centerfield after the All Star break.
Brandon Phillips wins the Gold Glove, but gets traded to the Mets on July 31st.
Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty get fired on October 1st.
Barry Larkin is hired as Manager.

Heh, whoa...bold!

*BaseClogger*
04-05-2009, 03:23 PM
I see the Reds at 77-85 and fourth place. And if they finish above .500, I'll eat more spinach (instead of crow) than Popeye, who they probably could use in left field.

Awesomeness. And we match!

4256 Hits
04-05-2009, 08:45 PM
60-102

I see no way that this team is nothing but bad. I guess its a good thing that my interest in the Reds is by far the lowest it has ever been so I will not waste as much time on a losing team as I have in the past.

Big Klu
04-05-2009, 09:18 PM
I'm feelin' lucky...

94

WVRedsFan
04-05-2009, 09:22 PM
Here we have the two extremes. 4256 says 60 wins and Big Klu says 94. I'm confident in saying BK will not see this team come even close to 90 wins, but I'm also confident they'll win more than 60.

kaldaniels
04-05-2009, 11:17 PM
86 Wins

-Gonna be a fun season
-Who needs Bruce when you've got Votto
-Bruce ain't chopped liver though :D
-Dusty isn't a manager who's gonna win a bunch of games for you
-He ain't gonna lose a bunch either
-Johnny > EV
-The saber-crowd will hate Willy
-The fans will enjoy Willy
-George Grande will love Willy
-EE is going to be the disappointment this year
-Glad to see you back Mr. Harang
-RZ will heatedly debate Owings role...everyday player???
-I'm pumped up

:beerme:

Stormy
04-05-2009, 11:20 PM
78-84

A few decent offseason moves to bolster LF/SS (and leave CF alone), and a competent manager, and we'd have had a solid chance at 87+ territory, in my opinion.

Reds Nd2
04-05-2009, 11:21 PM
The board seems a bit pessimistic this season. The contrarian view says...

88 wins.

gonelong
11-03-2009, 12:02 PM
Updated with 2009 results:



Old Red Guard
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
09 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74750) 79.0, 78, 76 (+ 1.0)
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66421) 81.6, 74, 72 (+ 7.6)
07 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) 81.4, 72, 75 (+ 9.2)
06 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) 76.7, 80, 76 (- 3.3)
05 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) 84.7, 73, 75 (+ 11.7)
04 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) 76.8, 76, 67 (+ 0.8)
03 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) 87.9, 69, 63 (+ 18.9)
02 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) 79.7, 75, 75 (+ 4.7)

Sundeck
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
09 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74617) 82.7, 78, 76 (+4.7)
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1591907&postcount=67) 85.1, 74, 72 (+11.1)