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View Full Version : juan francisco at short?



toledodan
04-04-2009, 12:37 AM
i saw where he played some tonight at short. is there any chance he could be getting a look there to see if he could be our future ss? he could give us that big time power bat at short like some of the better teams seem to have.

Tom Servo
04-04-2009, 01:45 AM
I've always heard Francisco is likely destined for the outfield as he's no sure thing at 3B. I have to doubt he could play shortstop.

GIDP
04-04-2009, 02:13 AM
Thats about as likely as us moving Bronson Arroyo to center

dougdirt
04-04-2009, 08:30 AM
He didn't play short. Whoever was running the MLB Gameday data did a terrible job. Between that and Yonder Alonso's 'three run HR' (it was a 2 run HR, Chris Heisey scored on the previous play) it was a rough night for the person running the system in Zebulon.

princeton
04-04-2009, 08:59 AM
I've always heard Francisco is likely destined for the outfield


maybe the Reds addressed that when they bumped Frazier to LF and kept Francisco at third. Reds' current idea: Francisco is the better prospect and gets to stay at third.

of course, these being the Reds, they may just be waiting for Francisco to "play his way off the position." but if EdE hasn't yet played his way off third, then how dreadful would Francisco have to defend in order to get moved?

lollipopcurve
04-04-2009, 09:08 AM
Reds' current idea: Francisco is the better prospect and gets to stay at third.

Really doubt the Reds are thinking in terms of which guy is "the better prospect." They had to figure out if they thought Francisco could stay there, given his huge arm. Francisco to 3B/Frazier to left is the best choice, defensively, if the evaluation that Francisco can handle the position is accurate.

princeton
04-04-2009, 09:29 AM
Really doubt the Reds are thinking in terms of which guy is "the better prospect." .

I certainly hope that they are, because it's a smart philosophy. You project your best prospects and project their best positions-- not where you hope they can play, but where they actually should play. the rest fight like crazy to fill in the gaps.

but that said, my guess was that Francisco's best position was OF and that the Reds are repeating the EdE mistake with him-- putting him at a position that he'll just never master. me, if I really thought that Francisco is the best prospect and his best talent is "hitter", not "third baseman," then he goes to the OF.

mth123
04-04-2009, 09:35 AM
maybe the Reds addressed that when they bumped Frazier to LF and kept Francisco at third. Reds' current idea: Francisco is the better prospect and gets to stay at third.

of course, these being the Reds, they may just be waiting for Francisco to "play his way off the position." but if EdE hasn't yet played his way off third, then how dreadful would Francisco have to defend in order to get moved?

I think its more likely that they view Frazier as being a multi-position guy with power. Frazier and Valaika are both guys who I think do not project as everyday players at one spot. They both could have long productive careers in the Mark De Rosa mold (Frazier more so than Valaika I think). I can't see Francisco, at his projected size, being a guy capable of moving around like that. Besides, so far he's been viewed as a fairly decent defender at 3B and that's a nice spot to have a LH Hitter. EdE, Frazier, Rosales, Valaika, and Soto are all RH Bats. Keeping the lefty option available seems a better strategy since none are sure things and may require becoming platoon players at the big league level. If nothing else, it makes a nice place to keep the LHPH with power since its likely the other three corners will have LH Hitting starters (Alonso, Votto and Bruce).

princeton
04-04-2009, 02:59 PM
I think its more likely that they view Frazier as being a multi-position guy with power.

that's what I said-- he's not as good of a prospect (according to Reds) and will have to fit in where needed.

I'm not sure they have this right, but at least a decision has been made by the Indecisives

Caveat Emperor
04-04-2009, 05:36 PM
maybe the Reds addressed that when they bumped Frazier to LF and kept Francisco at third. Reds' current idea: Francisco is the better prospect and gets to stay at third.

I don't know how you term a guy that struggles to reach base at a .300 clip in A & A+ ball a "prospect" at all.

RedsManRick
04-04-2009, 05:41 PM
I don't know how you term a guy that struggles to reach base at a .300 clip in A & A+ ball a "prospect" at all.

.220 ISO in pitcher's league in a pitcher's park will keep you on people's radar. As long as Fransisco can make enough contact in the zone to keep pitcher's honest, I expect his BB rate will increase quite a bit as he matures and starts laying off more stuff out of his reach. With the damage he can do when he makes contact, pitchers will respect him.

He clearly needs to make improvements in terms of his plate discipline, but when you're in A and AA, you nurture upside.

Caveat Emperor
04-04-2009, 06:15 PM
.220 ISO in pitcher's league in a pitcher's park will keep you on people's radar. As long as Fransisco can make enough contact in the zone to keep pitcher's honest, I expect his BB rate will increase quite a bit as he matures and starts laying off more stuff out of his reach. With the damage he can do when he makes contact, pitchers will respect him.

He clearly needs to make improvements in terms of his plate discipline, but when you're in A and AA, you nurture upside.

Last season, in the major leagues, there were 22 players who accumulated 450 PAs at 3B, according to ESPN.com's sortables. If you go back and look at each player's OBP in his final stop before moving to AA (either in A-ball or A+ ball), this is what each one accomplished (per Baseball-Reference.com):

Chipper Jones -- .353 (A+)
Alex Rodriguez -- .379 (A)
David Wright -- 369 (A+)
Aramis Ramirez -- .390 (A+)
Evan Longoria -- .402 (A)
Melvin Mora -- .352 (A+)
Carlos Guillen -- .405 (A)
Jorge Cantu -- .313 (A+)
Casey Blake -- ..339 (A+ 2 season)
Edwin Encarnacion -- .387 (A+)
Mike Lowell -- .403 (A/A+)
Adrian Beltre -- .407 (A+)
Scott Rolen -- .392 (A+)
Alex Gordon -- .427 (AA)
Garret Atinks -- .421 (A+)
Mark Reynolds -- .419 (A+)
Ryan Zimmerman -- .377 (A/AA)
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- .401 (A+)
Chone Figgins -- .358 (A+)
Pedro Feliz -- .310 (A+)
Jack Hannahan -- .362 (A+)

Juan Francisco -- .303 (A+)

I don't get how anyone thinks the future is anything but an extremely uphill climb for Mr. Francisco. There are lots of other interesting tools there, but nothing about his OBP suggests good things for the future.

Kc61
04-04-2009, 06:35 PM
Juan Francisco -- .303 (A+)

I don't get how anyone thinks the future is anything but an extremely uphill climb for Mr. Francisco. There are lots of other interesting tools there, but nothing about his OBP suggests good things for the future.



Reason 1 - Francisco played at A plus ball at age 21. He's not yet 22 and firmly in AA. He won't be 22 until late June. He has plenty of time to develop better discipline.

Reason 2 - Francisco has a lifetime slugging percentage of .467 and last year - in a pitcher's league - it was .496 in a full season of at bats. That's more than an interesting tool.

Reason 3 - He made Baseball America's all Winter League team with .360/.419/.665 in 161 at bats. Yes, it's Winter League, but the numbers are not shabby. And he hit 12 homers in regular play and 6 more in the playoffs.

This kid is a powerhouse. There is a chance he'll fail if he can't become more patient but his upside is incredible.

Caveat Emperor
04-04-2009, 07:00 PM
Reason 1 - Francisco played at A plus ball at age 21. He's not yet 22 and firmly in AA. He won't be 22 until late June. He has plenty of time to develop better discipline.

Reason 2 - Francisco has a lifetime slugging percentage of .467 and last year - in a pitcher's league - it was .496 in a full season of at bats. That's more than an interesting tool.

Reason 3 - He made Baseball America's all Winter League team with .360/.419/.665 in 161 at bats. Yes, it's Winter League, but the numbers are not shabby. And he hit 12 homers in regular play and 6 more in the playoffs.

This kid is a powerhouse. There is a chance he'll fail if he can't become more patient but his upside is incredible.

Counterargument 1: Most of the players on that list were in in A/A+ ball around the ages of 21-23. I'd have to go back and look at the list again to be certain, though.

And, if that's your argument -- that it's a skill that Francisco is going to develop -- why on earth are you pushing him up the ladder and hoping the skill manifests against better competition? There's no shame in repeating high-A ball -- several of the players on that list did. If the goal is to develop a skill, why push when he's already a little ahead of the age-level curve to begin with?

The list doesn't lie -- very few 3bs advance to AA without that skill (OBP) in their back-pocket already. Why should we believe Francisco will succeed swimming against that stream.

Counterargument 2: His SLG is fantastic, and his raw power appears prodigious. It doesn't negate the fact that, if his OBP doesn't improve significantly, he'll NEED to SLG in the .475+ range if he's going to be even an average offensive corner infielder.

Counterargument 3: His winter-league numbers were good, but if I recall, the winter league numbers tended to skew heavily in favor of offense. I really hope they're a sign of things to come, but there is a full A-ball and a full high A-ball season that both say Francisco isn't a .400+ OBP player, especially since that .400 OBP was driven heavily by the unsustainable .360 BA.

I just don't see it from Francisco. Power is a good thing, but even power can't save an out-machine.

Kc61
04-04-2009, 07:17 PM
Counterargument 1: Most of the players on that list were in in A/A+ ball around the ages of 21-23. I'd have to go back and look at the list again to be certain, though.

.

My only response to your points is that ages 21-23 is very different from Francisco's case. He started High A ball at 20 and completed it at 21. Again, he'll be 21 at AA ball until the end of June when he turns 22.

I would doubt that very many players have been as productive as Francisco by age 21 - considering the level of competition. And we all know that the FSL is a pitcher's league.

dougdirt
04-05-2009, 04:04 AM
Francisco needs to do one of two things.... he needs to strike out less or walk more. Its really that simple. Since 1960 with players who have had over 200 at bats in a season, onl 15 with a 4 to 1 or worse K to BB rate have posted an .800 OPS in a single season. Francisco was at 122 strikeouts and 19 walks last year. Fortunately, there seems to be a little bit of hope with the winter numbers, where he was at least willing to walk some. Took a walk against Johnny Cueto today as well. In the end though, he needs to improve at least one of those columns by a decent amount or each by a little bit or he is facing extreme odds to be a productive major leaguer. Fortunately, he has plenty of age on his side.

RED VAN HOT
04-05-2009, 10:14 AM
IMO the decision to move Frazier to LF and keep Francisco at 3B comes down to speed. Frazier is faster. At 3B, quickness and a strong are are relatively more important than all out speed. Given that they are at the same organizational level, this move seems logical.

My question is who plays SS for the Mudcats. Valaika will certainly be at AAA. Cozart is on the roster currently, but that seems to be a stretch. Frazier may stay at SS for the time being. We may all be reading too much decision making into the futures lineups.

dougdirt
04-05-2009, 12:56 PM
IMO the decision to move Frazier to LF and keep Francisco at 3B comes down to speed. Frazier is faster. At 3B, quickness and a strong are are relatively more important than all out speed. Given that they are at the same organizational level, this move seems logical.

My question is who plays SS for the Mudcats. Valaika will certainly be at AAA. Cozart is on the roster currently, but that seems to be a stretch. Frazier may stay at SS for the time being. We may all be reading too much decision making into the futures lineups.

Cozart will be the SS in AA. Talked to Todd yesterday, he will be in left field for the Mudcats this season, it is a semi permanent move (semi because he can always move later, but the Reds are keeping him in LF for now).

mth123
04-05-2009, 12:59 PM
Cozart will be the SS in AA. Talked to Todd yesterday, he will be in left field for the Mudcats this season, it is a semi permanent move (semi because he can always move later, but the Reds are keeping him in LF for now).

I like Frazier getting OF reps and if Cozart holds his own in AA, it will be a huge win for the organization.

Benihana
04-05-2009, 06:30 PM
What I wonder is if Frazier could ever play CF? As a converted SS, one would think he has the athleticism (a la David Espinosa).

As far as Francisco goes, I've wanted them to turn him into a catcher for a long time. Keep Frazier at 3B if he can't play CF.

camisadelgolf
04-06-2009, 12:50 PM
My eyes tell me that Frazier would be less-than-serviceable in center field. It sure would be nice if he could, though.