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View Full Version : Reds have a 19.7% chance of playoffs?



Eric_the_Red
04-04-2009, 05:42 AM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-accuscorenlstandings040309&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series.

NL CENTRAL WIN LOSS +/- WINSVS 2008 WIN DIVISION MAKE PLAYOFFS MAKE
NLCS WIN
NLCS WIN WORLD SERIES
Chicago Cubs 92 70 -5 33.30% 42.40% 26.00% 15.60% 7.90%
Milwaukee Brewers 85 77 -5 20.20% 29.60% 15.10% 7.70% 3.30%
Houston Astros 84 78 -2 18.40% 26.70% 13.00% 6.90% 2.80%
St. Louis Cardinals 81 81 -5 14.30% 22.70% 10.00% 4.90% 1.70%
Cincinnati Reds 79 83 5 12.00% 19.70% 8.40% 4.20% 1.30%
Pittsburgh Pirates 62 100 -5 1.80% 2.90% 0.70% 0.20% 0.00%

DannyB
04-04-2009, 10:04 AM
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-accuscorenlstandings040309&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series.

NL CENTRAL WIN LOSS +/- WINSVS 2008 WIN DIVISION MAKE PLAYOFFS MAKE
NLCS WIN
NLCS WIN WORLD SERIES
Chicago Cubs 92 70 -5 33.30% 42.40% 26.00% 15.60% 7.90%
Milwaukee Brewers 85 77 -5 20.20% 29.60% 15.10% 7.70% 3.30%
Houston Astros 84 78 -2 18.40% 26.70% 13.00% 6.90% 2.80%
St. Louis Cardinals 81 81 -5 14.30% 22.70% 10.00% 4.90% 1.70%
Cincinnati Reds 79 83 5 12.00% 19.70% 8.40% 4.20% 1.30%
Pittsburgh Pirates 62 100 -5 1.80% 2.90% 0.70% 0.20% 0.00%

Just think if The Reds won all 17 games the teams above are projected to lose:eek:

Ghosts of 1990
04-04-2009, 05:01 PM
This accuscore is deep stuff.

Fon Duc Tow
04-04-2009, 05:20 PM
"Reds have a 19.7% chance of playoffs?"

http://images.starpulse.com/Photos/Previews/DumbandDumber002.jpg

"So you're saying there's a chance!?!?"

Eric_the_Red
04-04-2009, 08:31 PM
"Reds have a 19.7% chance of playoffs?"

http://images.starpulse.com/Photos/Previews/DumbandDumber002.jpg

"So you're saying there's a chance!?!?"


LOL!
"What was all that 'one in a million' talk?!"

CRedsLarkin11
04-05-2009, 10:48 PM
"Reds have a 19.7% chance of playoffs?"

http://images.starpulse.com/Photos/Previews/DumbandDumber002.jpg

"So you're saying there's a chance!?!?"

This was exactly what I thought of when I read this LOL