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BigJohn
04-10-2009, 01:43 PM
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a8fd9ae0c-3742-48cb-b3ef-2966812a1953&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Ghosts of 1990
04-10-2009, 02:34 PM
Oh well. He threw great in the spring. I almost knew this would happen somehow. Almost like he went down with a chip on his shoulder. Lets hope it doesn't become a pattern.

schmidty622
04-10-2009, 04:39 PM
If he went down with a chip on his shoulder he should have come out and done well. It sounds like he went down feeling sorry for himself.

Ghosts of 1990
04-10-2009, 06:43 PM
If he went down with a chip on his shoulder he should have come out and done well. It sounds like he went down feeling sorry for himself.

entirely possible for a 22 year old kid. He had a great attitude all spring and probably feels a little bit like "what did that do for me". Just my guess.

Kingspoint
04-10-2009, 07:36 PM
So, he joins every other starter for the REDS so far this season. 4 Outings, and 4 poor performance....Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Bailey.

I'll take my chances that at the end of the year, the REDS win 87 games. That may not make any playoffs, but it'd be a great season.

redram
04-10-2009, 07:59 PM
And just what was so BAD about Harang's outing. He pitched a great game IMO, he just happened to have the bad luck of going up against one of the best in baseball.

Newman4
04-10-2009, 08:05 PM
It's a marathon not a sprint. Homer as plenty of time to get it going.

ChatterRed
04-11-2009, 04:43 AM
Pretty much the Homer I'm used to. He always gets rocked and is overrated.

I can't wait until some other team overvalues him and we get a real player in return.

davereds24
04-11-2009, 12:27 PM
he might not have much value left

Ghosts of 1990
04-11-2009, 05:41 PM
So, he joins every other starter for the REDS so far this season. 4 Outings, and 4 poor performance....Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Bailey.

I'll take my chances that at the end of the year, the REDS win 87 games. That may not make any playoffs, but it'd be a great season.

No kidding. I'm no scout but I feel confident in saying that Bailey could at least match the poor performances we've seen so far.

All that talk of building around pitching and the scary thing is we really don't have much.

Bumstead
04-13-2009, 10:57 AM
22 years old and it's over...:rolleyes: The Reds have one of the better pitching staffs in the NL. So, they didn't start out 5-0 with 5 shutouts...I guess I'm not as surprised by that as y'all seem to be...Bailey has a ton of talent and he deserves patience from us fans. He has a real shot at being a #1 or #2 starter by the time he is 25. There aren't many pitchers like that available.

Bum

Kingspoint
04-13-2009, 04:17 PM
I would have like to see us do what the Mariners did to begin the season and the way they did it. But, oh well.

Reds1
04-16-2009, 06:56 PM
You can't give up on pitching, especially when you are 22. Look at what Loshe is doing, we gave up on several pitchers around the league that are now starters. I'd say after his spring he got a pick up in value. A couple minor league starts won't end that. At some point the Reds will need him this year.

M2
04-16-2009, 07:20 PM
You can't give up on pitching, especially when you are 22.

That's not the issue with Bailey and the Reds. The problem is he's burnt his last option. He's got this season to thrive in the majors or the Reds are looking at trading him for whatever they can get.

And if he doesn't stop bursting into flames every time he goes to the mound for Louisville that will probably hasten his exit.

Reds1
04-17-2009, 11:20 AM
That's not the issue with Bailey and the Reds. The problem is he's burnt his last option. He's got this season to thrive in the majors or the Reds are looking at trading him for whatever they can get.

And if he doesn't stop bursting into flames every time he goes to the mound for Louisville that will probably hasten his exit.

He's got this year - it is what it is.

bucksfan2
04-17-2009, 11:49 AM
That's not the issue with Bailey and the Reds. The problem is he's burnt his last option. He's got this season to thrive in the majors or the Reds are looking at trading him for whatever they can get.

And if he doesn't stop bursting into flames every time he goes to the mound for Louisville that will probably hasten his exit.

No biggie here. If he isn't impressive this season he likely won't turn it around as a Red. IMO it was a foregone conclusion that he was going to burn his final option this season. No sense holding onto it when he can continue to develop down in Louisville.

M2
04-17-2009, 03:03 PM
No biggie here. If he isn't impressive this season he likely won't turn it around as a Red. IMO it was a foregone conclusion that he was going to burn his final option this season. No sense holding onto it when he can continue to develop down in Louisville.

I thought it was a foregone conclusion when he got drafted that he'd be called up too soon and burn through his options before he was ready. That's what happens when a desperate organization buys into unreasonable hype.

Just fyi, the option officially got burnt when Homer got placed on the Louisville roster this year. Players who are good enough to start and stick in the majors don't burn any options.

Reds1, I agree it is what it is, but what it is means that the Reds may be forced to give up on him at a young age.

dougdirt
04-17-2009, 03:08 PM
I thought it was a foregone conclusion that the Reds would be when he got drafted that he'd be called up too soon and burn through his options before he was ready.

Just fyi, the option officially got burnt when Homer got placed on the Louisville roster this year. Players who are good enough to start and stick in the majors don't burn any options.

Reds1, I agree it is what it is, but what it is means that the Reds may be forced to give up on him at a young age.

Unfortunately that last option should have never have been burned. Homer pitched better in spring training than both Owings and Masset. The Reds in turn wasted Homer's last option to retain Nick Masset and put someone in the rotation who was outpitched by Homer.

I don't think its going to lead to the Reds giving up on him, its just going to lead to them putting him, perhaps in the bullpen when they would rather not. There is always the chance that he does get traded too.

I still think Homer finds his way into the Reds rotation this season and doesn't let it go. We shall see.

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2009, 03:37 PM
Unfortunately that last option should have never have been burned. Homer pitched better in spring training than both Owings and Masset. The Reds in turn wasted Homer's last option to retain Nick Masset and put someone in the rotation who was outpitched by Homer.

I don't think its going to lead to the Reds giving up on him, its just going to lead to them putting him, perhaps in the bullpen when they would rather not. There is always the chance that he does get traded too.

I still think Homer finds his way into the Reds rotation this season and doesn't let it go. We shall see.

Doug, I respectfully disagree. I don't give a rat's ass how well Homer pitched in the spring; he needs to prove himself in AAA before he deserves to pitch in the majors. Micah Owings has a track record of success at the upper levels and deserved the fifth spot. As for Nick Masset and the bullpen, well, in my opinion Homer is really only valuable to the Reds as a starting pitcher, and like I said he needs to prove himself in Louisville. If he can't become a starting pitcher then I think he has more value in a trade to fill one of the Reds' needs.

Now, if you are arguing Homer was mishandled under Krivsky then I agree with you. He never should have been called up in 2007 before he dominated AAA. Last season should have been his debut with the Reds and we should still have another option year to determine his fate...

M2
04-17-2009, 03:49 PM
Unfortunately that last option should have never have been burned. Homer pitched better in spring training than both Owings and Masset. The Reds in turn wasted Homer's last option to retain Nick Masset and put someone in the rotation who was outpitched by Homer.

I don't think its going to lead to the Reds giving up on him, its just going to lead to them putting him, perhaps in the bullpen when they would rather not. There is always the chance that he does get traded too.

I still think Homer finds his way into the Reds rotation this season and doesn't let it go. We shall see.

I'll repeat what I said on the ORG, Homer can't pitch out of the pen any more than a cow can go down stairs.

Bailey's in flames in AAA right now. He'd be in flames in the majors. One way or another, that option was getting used.

He's some combination of not ready and not good. He was never good enough to be ready at an exceptionally young age. In a sane world, he'd be burning option #1 in AAA right now and the Reds would have his age 23, 24 and 25 seasons to figure out whether he can stick in the majors. Instead a lot of wishful thinkers imagined he could things he clearly couldn't and now he's got to pitch well in AAA just to get a chance to pitch well enough in the majors to last with the Reds beyond 2009.

On the bright side for Bailey fans, the Reds surely will have some rotation slots open up to either injury, trade or ineffectiveness, and all Bailey has to do to get a crack at one of those openings is have one decent start in a row (I call it "See! He's figured it out!" syndrome).

medford
04-17-2009, 03:56 PM
Does it really hurt all that much that homer burnt his last option this year? Worst case scenerio assuming he came up w/ the Reds this season, and stayed there all season, is that he'd prove ineffective for a good chunk of next season, and have to get sent back down to figure things out. If that were to happen, he'd pretty much be toast on the trade market anyways, at least in terms of being a top prospect.

Under the current plan, he can go to Louisiville and reprove his top prospect reputation, which would improve his trade value, or increase his chances of sticking in the majors for good. Frankly, if his mental state is so weak, that he can't put away minor leaguers because his feelings are hurt, then I doubt he has the make up to dominate in the majors for a long period like we hope.

Personally, I hope the first 2 games are just a blip on the radar, perhaps a brief let down with the dissapointment of missing the 25 man roster, he regains his compossure as the weather heats up and he finds himself on the bump in Cincy come mid June. I don't think the first 2 starts are nearly as bad as some in the media would like to make them out to be. I look for him to turn things back on in the next couple of weeks, and start to dominate hitters like he did for most of the spring.

M2
04-17-2009, 04:05 PM
Does it really hurt all that much that homer burnt his last option this year?

IMO, he was burning the option one way or the other. It's not that the option "hurts" anything or that it's anything to be distressed over.

It's that there's a reality attached to that last option. There is no more wait-and-see for the Reds and Bailey after this year. He'll get a shot at some point this season provided he doesn't completely implode or get injured. And then it will come down to him establishing himself as a big league pitcher or the Reds being forced to pursue other options.

TRF
04-17-2009, 04:12 PM
Unfortunately that last option should have never have been burned. Homer pitched better in spring training than both Owings and Masset.

He didn't outpitch Owings.

dougdirt
04-17-2009, 04:19 PM
He didn't outpitch Owings.

I will disagree with that. Much better K/BB rate, lower WHIP, better stuff... Thats outpitching him. Why Homer is struggling in AAA is beyond me, but I certainly feel that he wouldn't be having the same issues in the majors. Be it that he feels he deserved the spot in the majors and is down there trying to make a perfect pitch every time or that he is just off isn't going to change it for me. His stuff is there, he just hasn't been consistent for whatever reason. When he was wearing the Reds jersey in March he was very consistent. Put that Reds jersey on him again and I bet we will see a consistent Homer again.

dougdirt
04-17-2009, 04:23 PM
I'll repeat what I said on the ORG, Homer can't pitch out of the pen any more than a cow can go down stairs.

Bailey's in flames in AAA right now. He'd be in flames in the majors. One way or another, that option was getting used.
Those are both assumptions. Why can't Homer pitch out of the bullpen? And what is to say he couldn't pitch in the majors right now? Perhaps he is all over the place with his stuff because he is pressing down there. Perhaps its because the coaching isn't as good and they aren't identifying an issue. Perhaps he just isn't ready. You don't know which is it and neither do I.

Benihana
04-17-2009, 04:34 PM
Bottom line is Homer Bailey has to prove he can pitch effectively in the major leagues this season or his career with the Reds is over.

M2
04-17-2009, 04:39 PM
Why can't Homer pitch out of the bullpen?

From what I gather he doesn't loosen up quickly or recover quickly the day after he's pitched. And, IIRC, the 7 times he was asked to relieve in 2005 went so poorly he's never been asked to relieve again.


And what is to say he couldn't pitch in the majors right now? Perhaps he is all over the place with his stuff because he is pressing down there. Perhaps its because the coaching isn't as good and they aren't identifying an issue. Perhaps he just isn't ready. You don't know which is it and neither do I.

All I know is what he's doing and what he's done. If he can't handle the pressure of AAA, then he'll fold like a cheap suit in the majors. Frankly, there's no good excuse for a healthy pitcher getting thrashed like he's getting thrashed.

Plus, why he's getting thrashed doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. Like Benihana said, either he pitches well or he goes away at some point in this calendar year. He's flat run out of speculation.

medford
04-17-2009, 06:07 PM
Just to be clear, Homer is allowed to move back & forth b/w AAA & the majors as many times as the Reds deem it appropriate this year, correct? At least that is the way I understand it, but it seems that some are under the impression that once he's called up again, he can't ever return, which won't be true until next season (well at least not return to the minors w/o clearning waivers). I'm sure Doug or others can clear that up for me.

Thanks

dougdirt
04-17-2009, 06:28 PM
From what I gather he doesn't loosen up quickly or recover quickly the day after he's pitched. And, IIRC, the 7 times he was asked to relieve in 2005 went so poorly he's never been asked to relieve again.

Which doesn't have much to do with him being a long reliever when he wouldn't pitch back to back days anyways. And as for 2005.... well, that was 4 years ago when he was 19. The relevancy of that is about none.



All I know is what he's doing and what he's done. If he can't handle the pressure of AAA, then he'll fold like a cheap suit in the majors. Frankly, there's no good excuse for a healthy pitcher getting thrashed like he's getting thrashed.

Plus, why he's getting thrashed doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. Like Benihana said, either he pitches well or he goes away at some point in this calendar year. He's flat run out of speculation.
It certainly matters as to why he is 'getting thrashed' because there may very well be a simple solution to the problem.

dougdirt
04-17-2009, 06:29 PM
Just to be clear, Homer is allowed to move back & forth b/w AAA & the majors as many times as the Reds deem it appropriate this year, correct? At least that is the way I understand it, but it seems that some are under the impression that once he's called up again, he can't ever return, which won't be true until next season (well at least not return to the minors w/o clearning waivers). I'm sure Doug or others can clear that up for me.

Thanks
Yes, he can go up and down as many times this year as he wants (allowing 10 days at each spot of course). He can't be sent back down next year though without having to clear waivers and be open for another team to take him and place him on their roster.

M2
04-17-2009, 06:48 PM
Just to be clear, Homer is allowed to move back & forth b/w AAA & the majors as many times as the Reds deem it appropriate this year, correct? At least that is the way I understand it, but it seems that some are under the impression that once he's called up again, he can't ever return, which won't be true until next season (well at least not return to the minors w/o clearning waivers). I'm sure Doug or others can clear that up for me.

Thanks

I don't think anybody's under that impression.

The issue with the option is he can never be sent to the minors again after this year (at least by the Reds). So if he can't put claim to a major league job in 2009, then he's in nowhere land - the Reds can't hand him a job he hasn't earned and the club doesn't have the luxury of sending him down if he's not ready again. At that point clubs tend to trade/release kids (aka make him someone else's problem).

M2
04-17-2009, 07:05 PM
Which doesn't have much to do with him being a long reliever when he wouldn't pitch back to back days anyways. And as for 2005.... well, that was 4 years ago when he was 19. The relevancy of that is about none.

The fact that the Reds organization hasn't used him so much as once in relief since then sure seems relevant to me. And what Reds reliever this decade has ever had the luxury of not having to get ready quickly or work consecutive days? Mike Lincoln had the highest IP/appearance ratio of any regular Reds reliever last season - 70.1 IP/64 appearances.

You're imagining a role that doesn't exist.


It certainly matters as to why he is 'getting thrashed' because there may very well be a simple solution to the problem.

Homer Bailey? Simple solution?

I believe those qualify as mutually exclusive terms.

Anyway, it's not my job to fix him and I don't care if he gets fixed. All he is to me is a kid in a binary situation - either he gets the job done or he goes bye-bye.

dougdirt
04-17-2009, 07:42 PM
The fact that the Reds organization hasn't used him so much as once in relief since then sure seems relevant to me. And what Reds reliever this decade has ever had the luxury of not having to get ready quickly or work consecutive days? Mike Lincoln had the highest IP/appearance ratio of any regular Reds reliever last season - 70.1 IP/64 appearances.

You're imagining a role that doesn't exist.

Simply because the Reds haven't asked him to do so doesn't mean they don't think he can. They simply wanted him to develop as a starter. As far as the role, just because the Reds haven't used someone like that doesn't mean they can't if it comes down to losing Homer Bailey or keeping him. You are imagining that the Reds are beyond dumb and can't come up with something simple like 'don't use Homer Bailey on back to back days'.

M2
04-17-2009, 10:16 PM
Simply because the Reds haven't asked him to do so doesn't mean they don't think he can. They simply wanted him to develop as a starter. As far as the role, just because the Reds haven't used someone like that doesn't mean they can't if it comes down to losing Homer Bailey or keeping him. You are imagining that the Reds are beyond dumb and can't come up with something simple like 'don't use Homer Bailey on back to back days'.

The Reds can't afford to carry a reliever they can't use on back-to-back days. The bullpen is an all hands on deck operation all across MLB because starting pitchers don't work enough innings. More than that, the long reliever who pitches multiple innings every few days is a myth. No one does that.

As for Homer and relieving, all I've heard is the organization considers him particularly ill-suited for it and your speculation that maybe he's not does nothing to convince me otherwise.

So, creating a less versatile bullpen to give a kid who's not very good a job that doesn't exist? IMO, that's heading into beyond dumb territory.

ChatterRed
04-18-2009, 04:05 AM
He didn't outpitch Owings.

Agreed. Owings is the better pitcher at this point. Owings was just drafted in 2005 by Arizona in the 3rd round. He's only 26 years old. This is his 4th season of professional baseball.

dougdirt
04-18-2009, 11:52 AM
Agreed. Owings is the better pitcher at this point. Owings was just drafted in 2005 by Arizona in the 3rd round. He's only 26 years old. This is his 4th season of professional baseball.

I am not sure what any of that has to do with what happened this spring where Bailey had the same strikeout rate, a much better walk rate and a lower WHIP.

OnBaseMachine
04-26-2009, 09:18 PM
Homer Bailey was absolutely dominant in his start today: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 15 K. One of the runs scored after Bailey exited the game. Of the 19 outs Bailey recorded, 15 came via the strikeout. His fastball was supposedly around 95 mph and his curve was devastating. Let's hope this is a sign of things to come for Homer. If the Reds stay in the race, Homer could provide a huge boost to the Reds in the second half if he continues pitching well.

TRF
04-26-2009, 10:06 PM
I am not sure what any of that has to do with what happened this spring where Bailey had the same strikeout rate, a much better walk rate and a lower WHIP.

He also faced more B teams than Owings.

ChatterRed
04-27-2009, 02:05 AM
Homer Bailey was absolutely dominant in his start today: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 15 K. One of the runs scored after Bailey exited the game. Of the 19 outs Bailey recorded, 15 came via the strikeout. His fastball was supposedly around 95 mph and his curve was devastating. Let's hope this is a sign of things to come for Homer. If the Reds stay in the race, Homer could provide a huge boost to the Reds in the second half if he continues pitching well.

The dude has alot of proving to do in my book. I don't like his attitude and the fact that when he didn't make the team, he sulks and goes out and sucks.

I like the results today. But do it for a month and then I'll start to believe. :rolleyes:

dougdirt
04-27-2009, 02:29 AM
The dude has alot of proving to do in my book. I don't like his attitude and the fact that when he didn't make the team, he sulks and goes out and sucks.

I like the results today. But do it for a month and then I'll start to believe. :rolleyes:
Your book however is biased. His attitude and your opinion that he 'sulked and sucked' is simply that, your opinion. Maybe his mechanics were just off the first few starts?

SirFelixCat
04-27-2009, 03:18 AM
Your book however is biased. His attitude and your opinion that he 'sulked and sucked' is simply that, your opinion. Maybe his mechanics were just off the first few starts?

Is it possible that his 'dead arm' period was later than others?

GIDP
04-27-2009, 09:41 AM
I was watching it yesterday and his breaking balls were controlled and filthy. I mean im talking so nasty that guys were going back to the dugouts as if they almost expected to strike out.

lollipopcurve
04-27-2009, 10:15 AM
I was watching it yesterday and his breaking balls were controlled and filthy. I mean im talking so nasty that guys were going back to the dugouts as if they almost expected to strike out.

Nice. In my opinion, the curve is the key pitch for him. If he can throw it for strikes in the majority of his outings -- not realistic to expect it will always be there -- he's going to be fine.

Question: did he have the huge 12-6 break going, or was it a bit tighter, maybe with a little 1-to-7 tilt?

ChatterRed
04-27-2009, 10:22 AM
Your book however is biased. His attitude and your opinion that he 'sulked and sucked' is simply that, your opinion. Maybe his mechanics were just off the first few starts?

.....and your opinion is clearly biased in the other direction. Pot meet kettle.

GIDP
04-27-2009, 10:27 AM
Nice. In my opinion, the curve is the key pitch for him. If he can throw it for strikes in the majority of his outings -- not realistic to expect it will always be there -- he's going to be fine.

Question: did he have the huge 12-6 break going, or was it a bit tighter, maybe with a little 1-to-7 tilt?

He had 2 that were going 12-6 ish but one had a massive break like we are used to and the 2nd was a slower looking one that only broke about half as much. The 2nd one was really destroying hitters. Lots of swings and misses off it. It was almost like guys thought it was a change up and then it would break out down right before they swung.

Also his fast ball was painting corners and when he needed to throw a strike he seemed to have no trouble getting one over.

OnBaseMachine
04-27-2009, 11:40 AM
Your book however is biased. His attitude and your opinion that he 'sulked and sucked' is simply that, your opinion. Maybe his mechanics were just off the first few starts?

Exactly. Nobody knows what happened to Homer in those first two starts. As for his attitude, everyone that has talked to him this season has said his attitude has greatly improved.

OnBaseMachine
04-27-2009, 12:20 PM
From Kevin Goldstein:

Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds (Triple-A Louisville)
Bailey has been crowned as the savior of the Reds' rotation for some time now, but he's run into some frustrating bouts of inconsistency at the upper levels. Some mechanical changes this spring renewed his former promise, and the scouting reports were good, but they didn't carry over to the season: Bailey entered Sunday's start against Toledo with a 7.71 ERA. While two runs allowed over 6 1/3 innings didn't do much for his ERA, it doesn't say anything about just how dominating Bailey was, as the big number on his box score line was 15, as in 15 of his 19 outs were strikeouts. While it's too early to simply say he's back, it's hard to imagine a more promising sign.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8788

REDblooded
04-27-2009, 12:23 PM
Anybody have video of yesterdays start?

OnBaseMachine
04-27-2009, 12:34 PM
After getting no more than five strikeouts in his first three starts, Bailey matched the Louisville franchise record set by Ken Hill on May 10, 1990, against Indianapolis and also set a Fifth Third Field mark.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090427/SPORTS07/904270383/1002/SPORTS/Bailey+s+15+strikeouts+match+Bats++team+record

GIDP
04-27-2009, 05:01 PM
Anybody have video of yesterdays start?

If someone could tell me how to rip video off MILBs feeds and I could get it :)

dougdirt
04-27-2009, 05:07 PM
If someone could tell me how to rip video off MILBs feeds and I could get it :)

I have tried a bunch of different ways, but it seems impossible since you have to log in to view the videos....

GIDP
04-27-2009, 05:10 PM
I have tried a bunch of different ways, but it seems impossible since you have to log in to view the videos....

Yea the best option is probably screen capping and making gifs of it. You used to be able to rip it by doing a bunch of goofy stuff like opening the file, copying the non streaming address then running it through some other program that let you skip some type of login but that went away a couple years ago when MLB updated their video stuff.

GOYA
04-27-2009, 05:27 PM
If someone could tell me how to rip video off MILBs feeds and I could get it :)


I've done it but I don't see that game as being available for replay.

Do we have a problem with showing/linking to MiLB product here? Or do we have a problem with explaining how to capture their feeds?

GIDP
04-27-2009, 05:30 PM
It isnt up. Archived games normally dont show up for a few days

GOYA
04-27-2009, 05:36 PM
When it comes up, I'll get it. What I can do with it is the question.

membengal
05-02-2009, 06:18 PM
After getting no more than five strikeouts in his first three starts, Bailey matched the Louisville franchise record set by Ken Hill on May 10, 1990, against Indianapolis and also set a Fifth Third Field mark.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090427/SPORTS07/904270383/1002/SPORTS/Bailey+s+15+strikeouts+match+Bats++team+record

Tack on seven more innings of shutout ball in his latest outing...