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DTCromer
04-12-2009, 01:49 PM
Off to a rousing start.

6 K's in 15 PA so far this year.

This may actually be down from last year. :(

Kc61
04-12-2009, 03:14 PM
Off to a rousing start.

6 K's in 15 PA so far this year.

This may actually be down from last year. :(

Francisco struck out 123 times last year in 541 PAs, 22.7 percent of the time. That is quite reasonable for a power hitter, not high at all. And it was a significant improvement over 2007, in which he fanned 161 times in 562 at bats, or 28.6 percent of the time.

Now, this year, in 15 at bats, he has fanned forty percent of the time, which obviously is quite a bit higher than last year. It might be a realistic alternative, though, to give Juan a few more at bats before putting him on irrevocable waivers.

DTCromer
04-12-2009, 03:15 PM
I know it's a very, very small sample size. But it's concerning for a guy with so much potential.

dougdirt
04-12-2009, 03:18 PM
I know it's a very, very small sample size. But it's concerning for a guy with so much potential.

His K rate isn't concerning. His walk rate is. AA is the level he may wind up figuring out he needs to tighten his swing zone, pitchers are no longer playing around.

TOBTTReds
04-12-2009, 04:35 PM
His K rate isn't concerning. His walk rate is. AA is the level he may wind up figuring out he needs to tighten his swing zone, pitchers are no longer playing around.

Thank you for posting that sooner than later. The higher the levels he gets, pitchers will figure him out even more.

RedsManRick
04-12-2009, 06:46 PM
Agreed, Doug. He's never going to be a great contact hitter, so the K's will always be there to some extent. For his talent to really gel, he's going to need to stop chasing so much crap out of the zone.

medford
04-13-2009, 01:39 PM
I know it's a very, very small sample size. But it's concerning for a guy with so much potential.

That's about all you need to worry about right now w/ any player in baseball. Check back w/ numbers in a month and you'll begin to see the real story (good or bad)

+1 to what Doug said.

gedred69
04-16-2009, 12:03 AM
This guy could be something special------------if allowed to develop, and he has the desire to do so. Otherwise, he will become the re-incarnation of Wily Mo. Please!! Patience, Patience, Patience. (Didn't have that option with Wily Mo due to his contract).

OnBaseMachine
05-26-2009, 04:38 PM
From Baseball Prospectus:

Juan Francisco, 3B, Reds (Double-A Carolina)
Francisco is such an unusual prospect: it's easy to get excited about some of his tools, as both his power and arm rate as plus-plus if not better, but at the same time, he's a bad-bodied and downright sloppy third baseman who will swing at anything. He still entices at times, however, and he certainly did so during a five-game stretch against Carolina over the weekend, going 10-for-24 with a double, three home runs (including two Monday), and nine RBI. Unfortunately, that only raised his averages on the season to .245/.271/.462. The potential is certainly there, but he'll need to make some adjustments.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8947

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2009, 05:06 PM
From Baseball Prospectus:

Juan Francisco, 3B, Reds (Double-A Carolina)
Francisco is such an unusual prospect: it's easy to get excited about some of his tools, as both his power and arm rate as plus-plus if not better, but at the same time, he's a bad-bodied and downright sloppy third baseman who will swing at anything. He still entices at times, however, and he certainly did so during a five-game stretch against Carolina over the weekend, going 10-for-24 with a double, three home runs (including two Monday), and nine RBI. Unfortunately, that only raised his averages on the season to .245/.271/.462. The potential is certainly there, but he'll need to make some adjustments.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8947

It's not that impressive for an intra-squad game... :rolleyes:

Homer Bailey
05-26-2009, 06:22 PM
It's not that impressive for an intra-squad game... :rolleyes:

Beat me to it :cool:

PuffyPig
05-26-2009, 06:25 PM
This guy could be something special------------if allowed to develop, and he has the desire to do so. Otherwise, he will become the re-incarnation of Wily Mo. Please!! Patience, Patience, Patience. (Didn't have that option with Wily Mo due to his contract).

Yeah, becuase Pena's agent wouldn't allow it to be restructured so he could be sent down to the minors, IIRC......

Kc61
05-26-2009, 11:14 PM
Francisco with two hits and two RBIs tonight now has 33 RBI in 45 games as a 21 year old at AA.

Scrap Irony
05-26-2009, 11:28 PM
and hitting 250 with an ops under 750

Kc61
05-26-2009, 11:37 PM
and hitting 250 with an ops under 750

Youngest guy on his team had a bad start adjusing to AA. In last batch of games his numbers have been steadily climbing.

By the way, you left out his nine homers.

Scrap Irony
05-27-2009, 12:01 AM
And with those nine homers, still only a 750 OPS.

Francisco is Samone at this point. Perhaps he becomes something else as he matures. More likely, he's not.

HokieRed
05-27-2009, 12:20 AM
OPS right around 1.000 for the last ten games.

Homer Bailey
05-27-2009, 12:58 AM
OPS right around 1.000 for the last ten games.

SSS

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 02:14 AM
Here is what matters for Francisco - 7 walks, 46 strikeouts and 195 plate appearances. No one can has those kind of rates and be successful in the majors. He either needs to walk quite a bit more or strike out quite a bit less.

Kc61
05-27-2009, 08:27 AM
Here is what matters for Francisco - 7 walks, 46 strikeouts and 195 plate appearances. No one can has those kind of rates and be successful in the majors. He either needs to walk quite a bit more or strike out quite a bit less.

Francisco's K rate declined in A ball over time, and it will in AA ball. Right now, with 46 Ks in 45 games, he would K about 160 times -- not outrageously high for a power guy. But again, based on history it will get better.

His walks are unacceptably low. So are Neftali Soto's -- he has five walks in 155 at bats this year. But JF has 9 homers, 33 RBIs, a .741 OPS. Soto's OPS is .678 with 4 homers and 13 RBI yet he's supposedly the surefire great prospect. Francisco always seems to knock in runs indicating that he makes contact when it counts.

Both guys are young for their leagues and are just settling in after advancing a level. Both will be major leaguers. In Francisco's case, he is currently hot. Let's see where his numbers go over the summer.

HokieRed
05-27-2009, 10:16 AM
Doug's identified the number one problem with JF very clearly: walk rate. His K rate is in a reasonable range for somebody with his kind of power. And Homer, I understand that the last ten games are SSS. My comment was made only to suggest that in evaluating minor leaguers you have to look at trend and the ability to adjust to levels. That's one thing I've liked about Stubbs, for instance, all along: he's consistently shown he can improve his game as he's moved up through the levels. JF bears watching in the same way; he needs to show he can walk more and thus push up his OPS. If he can become more selective, too, we'll need to see if that results in less or even better power numbers.

lollipopcurve
05-27-2009, 10:21 AM
Francisco is Samone at this point.

Not really a good comp. Peters never was effective outside of low A ball. A stiff defensively at 1B. Francisco is a much, much better prospect. He's got his flaws, but he's still 21 and in AA.

Kc61
05-27-2009, 11:15 AM
Doug's identified the number one problem with JF very clearly: walk rate. His K rate is in a reasonable range for somebody with his kind of power. And Homer, I understand that the last ten games are SSS. My comment was made only to suggest that in evaluating minor leaguers you have to look at trend and the ability to adjust to levels. That's one thing I've liked about Stubbs, for instance, all along: he's consistently shown he can improve his game as he's moved up through the levels. JF bears watching in the same way; he needs to show he can walk more and thus push up his OPS. If he can become more selective, too, we'll need to see if that results in less or even better power numbers.


Stubbs has improved, but to accomplish this he has stopped hitting for power. I haven't seen him personally, but it's obvious from his numbers that to avoid Ks and to improve his on base skills he's shortened his swing or stopped trying to blast the ball. We'll see if the power comes back eventually or if this is a permanent change.

Francisco hasn't gone this route as yet. Having followed his numbers, he does seem to have the knack to make sufficient contact to be a .270s BA hitter at lower levels and hit for great power. The fly in the ointment, of course, is selectivity and walks.

Sometimes I wish there were no minor league statistics because they are often assumed to be an end product rather than developmental numbers. We'll see on JF, he's obviously no sure thing. But as I've said many times here, his ceiling is sky high and given his youth he's highly valuable.

I also note that JF makes his share of errors in the field so that is another potential issue, although he reputedly has a great arm.

Scrap Irony
05-27-2009, 11:27 AM
Stubbs has a 450 slugging percentage and is among the IL league leaders in doubles. While his HR stroke is MIA, those doubles could eventually turn into HR at the major league level, especially considering his likely home ballpark.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 01:17 PM
Francisco's K rate declined in A ball over time, and it will in AA ball. Right now, with 46 Ks in 45 games, he would K about 160 times -- not outrageously high for a power guy. But again, based on history it will get better.
Sure, it may get better.... but he has to get to a 10-15% K rate in order to bring in some value with such a low walk rate. His history doesn't suggest he can get it that low. Right now he hasn't been below 23% since 2006 in Billings.



His walks are unacceptably low. So are Neftali Soto's -- he has five walks in 155 at bats this year. But JF has 9 homers, 33 RBIs, a .741 OPS. Soto's OPS is .678 with 4 homers and 13 RBI yet he's supposedly the surefire great prospect. Francisco always seems to knock in runs indicating that he makes contact when it counts.
The differences between the two are pretty telling though. One guy is playing in the FSL, one guy in a park where its 309 down his pull line. One guy strikes out 24% of the time he steps to the plate with a real low walk rate. The other guy strikes out 12% of the time he steps to the plate. So one guy is rocking a 7/46 walk to strikeout ratio (thats a 6.6 to 1 rate) while the other guy is rocking a 5/20 walk to strikeout ratio (4 to 1). Thats a significantly large difference with Soto having the much stronger of the two.



Both guys are young for their leagues and are just settling in after advancing a level. Both will be major leaguers. In Francisco's case, he is currently hot. Let's see where his numbers go over the summer.

It has nothing to do with hot or not. It has to do with improving his skillset. Nothing he has done has suggested a change in his skill set. He still can't walk to save his life and he still strikes out 7 times as much as he walks. No one in the history of baseball has anything resembling a solid year, much less career with anything over a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. He either needs to walk a lot more, or strike out a lot less. He won't be successful without doing one of the two and he hasn't shown anything resembling improvement in two years in either category.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 01:33 PM
http://www.redsminorleagues.com/images/jftrends.jpg

As we can see in his month to month splits for his Walk rate (BB/PA) and his K Rate (K/PA), his strikeout rate has gone down... at a very slow rate over the last two years, but has not done much improvement from the start of High A until now. His walk rate however has not improved at all. It has stayed almost exactly the same. There are no improvements there to speak of really.

Kc61
05-27-2009, 02:31 PM
The differences between the two are pretty telling though. One guy is playing in the FSL, one guy in a park where its 309 down his pull line. One guy strikes out 24% of the time he steps to the plate with a real low walk rate. The other guy strikes out 12% of the time he steps to the plate. So one guy is rocking a 7/46 walk to strikeout ratio (thats a 6.6 to 1 rate) while the other guy is rocking a 5/20 walk to strikeout ratio (4 to 1). Thats a significantly large difference with Soto having the much stronger of the two.



.

Soto Ks less. He doesn't walk more. But how about actual production?

Soto is .265/.297/.381/.678 with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 13 RBI.

Francisco is .251/.278/.465/.741 with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 9 homers, 33 RBI.

Last year, at Soto's current High A level, Francisco was .277/.303/.496/.799 with 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers, 92 RBI.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 02:42 PM
Soto Ks less. He doesn't walk more. But how about actual production?

Soto is .265/.297/.381/.678 with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 13 RBI.

Francisco is .251/.278/.465/.741 with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 9 homers, 33 RBI.

Last year, at Soto's current High A level, Francisco was .277/.303/.496/.799 with 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers, 92 RBI.

Soto had a rough April. In May he is hitting .320/.369/.493 in May with 5 walks and 10 strikeouts. Francisco had exactly 0 months with an OBP over .336 last season in Sarasota. He had 1 month where he hit over .290. He had 1 month where his K/BB was better than 5.4 to 1, and it was 4 to 1. Soto currently has a 2 to 1 rate in May. July and August were the only months where Francisco had a SLG over .500 in the FSL. Maybe the weather did something? Soto hasn't gotten to those months yet.

Actual production in the minors doesn't mean much. Its about refining your skillset to you can have actual production in the majors. Soto's skillset, while somewhat unique, is much more likely to provide actual production at the major league level than Francisco's. Thats the production I am more concerned with.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2009, 02:48 PM
Let's also remember that Soto just had 218 atbats in Dayton last season. I agreed with the move to start him at Sarasota, but it could be argued that he was rushed a bit.

Kc61
05-27-2009, 03:11 PM
Soto had a rough April. In May he is hitting .320/.369/.493 in May with 5 walks and 10 strikeouts. Francisco had exactly 0 months with an OBP over .336 last season in Sarasota. He had 1 month where he hit over .290. He had 1 month where his K/BB was better than 5.4 to 1, and it was 4 to 1. Soto currently has a 2 to 1 rate in May. July and August were the only months where Francisco had a SLG over .500 in the FSL. Maybe the weather did something? Soto hasn't gotten to those months yet.

Actual production in the minors doesn't mean much. Its about refining your skillset to you can have actual production in the majors. Soto's skillset, while somewhat unique, is much more likely to provide actual production at the major league level than Francisco's. Thats the production I am more concerned with.

I see two talented players with different offensive skillsets. One has shown the ability to hit for huge power and knock in runs -- not just homers but a doubles machine as well. The other has shown the ability to hit for high average but with far less power so far.

Neither walks. Both have defensive issues.

One guy is credited as a huge potential offensive star, the other is repeatedly underestimated. That's how I see it.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 03:50 PM
I see two talented players with different offensive skillsets. One has shown the ability to hit for huge power and knock in runs -- not just homers but a doubles machine as well. The other has shown the ability to hit for high average but with far less power so far.

Neither walks. Both have defensive issues.

One guy is credited as a huge potential offensive star, the other is repeatedly underestimated. That's how I see it.

I would argue that Soto doesn't have far less game power. For their careers to this point Soto has a .174 isolated power, while Francisco has a .195 isolated power. Thats not a huge difference at all and Soto has been younger at both steps than Francisco was.

I think the way you see if is you missing the point. No one in the history of baseball has come close to a good season, much less a good career with the walk rates and strikeout rates that Francisco has had in the minor leagues. There are cases of low walk, high contact guys like Soto having good seasons and careers in the major leagues. Couple in the fact that Soto also has power to hit 25-30 HR and well, there is potential there to be a Aramis Ramirez type of player offensively. Francisco doesn't have a major league comp because guys with his skillset don't make the majors and stick around. He must change something, be it walking more or walking less. Its not underrating him, its looking at the history of baseball for over 100 years.

Kc61
05-27-2009, 04:10 PM
I think the way you see if is you missing the point. No one in the history of baseball has come close to a good season, much less a good career with the walk rates and strikeout rates that Francisco has had in the minor leagues. There are cases of low walk, high contact guys like Soto having good seasons and careers in the major leagues. Couple in the fact that Soto also has power to hit 25-30 HR and well, there is potential there to be a Aramis Ramirez type of player offensively. Francisco doesn't have a major league comp because guys with his skillset don't make the majors and stick around. He must change something, be it walking more or walking less. Its not underrating him, its looking at the history of baseball for over 100 years.

Francisco moves up a level each year, he is constantly adjusting to new pitching, and I am confident that if the Reds would keep him in AA this year and next, that by next year his K/BB rate will improve and he will knock the heck out of the ball. And he'll still be 23.

The flaw in your "100 years of baseball" argument is that it looks at MLB numbers -- the end product -- not how players developed in the minors. Young hitters can improve, sometimes it's a matter of maturity and getting comfortable with new pitching levels.

In the winter leagues, JF had no OBP problem, no walk problem. I understand the pitching was not top drawer. But when he was at a comfort level offensively, this player normalized his K/BB numbers. I think this will happen at AA as well, over some time.

dougdirt
05-27-2009, 04:14 PM
Francisco moves up a level each year, he is constantly adjusting to new pitching, and I am confident that if the Reds would keep in AA this year and next, that by next year his K/BB rate will improve and he will knock the heck out of the ball.

The flaw in your "100 years of baseball" argument is that it looks at MLB numbers -- the end product -- not how players developed in the minors. Young hitters can improve, sometimes it's a matter of maturity and getting comfortable with new pitching levels.

In the winter leagues, JF had no OBP problem, no walk problem. I understand the pitching was not top drawer. But when he was at a comfort level offensively, this player normalized his K/BB numbers.

The problem is that over his career Francisco hasn't really improved his K/BB rates at all. Sure, its only looking at the end product when talking about the major leagues, but guys don't make dramatic changes in their walk rates all that often from the minors to the majors.

As for the winter league.... no one had a walk problem there. The strikezone was incredibly small by all accounts. Pitchers had to groove pitches down the middle or they were being called balls. Thats why every DWL record fell this season on the offensive side of things and by a long shot. Pitchers were only getting strikes called on swings.

Players can improve and make changes in their skill set. The problem is, Juan hasn't for going on two plus years now. Sure, he has adjusted to the pitching at the different levels, but his walk rates have stayed the same as have his strikeout rate for the last year and a month. That isn't really considered an improvement because he went up a level.