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Raisor
11-17-2002, 10:54 AM
As most of you know, over the course of the season I compared how the Reds regulars against the major league average at their positions.

I never did get around to doing a FINAL look, so here we go.

Austin Kearns RF-0.907 (+96)
Adam Dunn LF-0.854 (+47)
----------------------------ML Average Firstbase 0.822
----------------------------ML Average Rightfield 0.811
----------------------------ML Average Leftfield 0.807
Todd Walker 2B-0.785 (+62)
Ken Griffey CF-0.784 (+20)
Russ Branyan LF-0.777 (-30)
----------------------------ML Average Centerfield 0.764
Aaron Boone 3B-0.753 (+3)
----------------------------ML Average Thirdbase 0.750
Jason LaRue C-0.729 (+35)
----------------------------ML Average Secondbase 0.723
----------------------------ML Average Shortstop 0.722
Reggie Taylor CF-0.719 (-45)
Sean Casey 1B-0.696 (-126)
-----------------------------ML Average Catcher 0.694
Barry Larkin SS-0.672 (-50)


Here's how they rank, based on how many OPS points better (or worse) they are over their positional average (also shown as a percentage)

Kearns +96 (111%)
Walker +62 (109%)
Dunn +47 (106%)
LaRue +35 (105%)
Griffey +20 (103%)
Boone +3 (100%)
------------------
Branyan-30 (96%)
Taylor -45 (94%)
Larkin -50 (93%)
Casey -126 (85%)

M2
11-17-2002, 01:04 PM
Good post Raisor.

A few thoughts:

1. Yeah, go ahead trade Jason LaRue. Brilliant idea. Killer arm, plus bat, getting better.

2. And the complaint about Aaron Boone is? I'd like him to have a higher OB too, but even in a weird for him he was an average offensive 3B.

3. This has got to be the first time since maybe 1987 that Barry Larkin has posted a below average OPS at SS. Wonder what's going through his head this offseason.

4. I still think Sean Casey's season can be spun as an anomaly in the trade market, but if you're looking to reconstruct the offense to any degree, 1B has to be the first spot you'd consider. Maybe you hold onto the guy figuring he'll improve himself over 2002, but at the very least the Reds should be weighing their options with the guy.

Raisor
11-17-2002, 02:02 PM
Just to put the percentages into perspective, here's how the guys that were the TOP of their positions did.

C I-Rod, 134%
1B Thome 140%
2B Kent 131%
3B Rolen 113%
SS ARod 141%
LF Bonds 174% (WOW)
CF Berkman 129%
RF Vlad 125%

PSR

westofyou
11-17-2002, 02:10 PM
Here's a list of how the guys with 200 plus ab's fared vs the league average in some other numbers.

Extra base hits, Average, BB, Secondary Average and Runs/27


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
2002


AVERAGE AVG EBH AVG RC/G SEC BB
1 Austin Kearns .315 5 .042 1.69 .015 11
2 Todd Walker .299 11 .032 0.98 -.005 -1
3 Juan Encarnacion .277 0 .010 0.14 .008 -7
4 Ken Griffey Jr. .264 -2 -.003 -.01 .014 7
5 Sean Casey .261 -12 -.009 -1.56 -.110 -12
6 Reggie Taylor .254 0 -.013 -1.51 -.052 -17
7 Jason LaRue .249 1 -.002 0.10 .002 -5
8 Adam Dunn .249 -1 -.027 0.47 .122 51
9 Barry Larkin .245 7 -.015 -.32 .021 4
10 Russ Branyan .244 3 -.031 0.32 .096 3

westofyou
11-17-2002, 02:24 PM
Here are some more.

Total base, Bases per plate appearence and OBA.

200 ab's or more.


TOTAL BASES TB TB OBA BPA
1 Aaron Boone 266 8 -.016 .069
2 Todd Walker 264 37 .022 .030
3 Adam Dunn 243 -14 .033 .045
T4 Barry Larkin 186 -9 -.011 -.004
T4 Austin Kearns 186 23 .050 .034
6 Sean Casey 154 -40 -.022 -.093
7 Juan Encarnacion 152 14 -.007 .018
8 Jason LaRue 143 6 .005 .017
9 Reggie Taylor 123 -8 -.047 -.042
10 Russ Branyan 112 9 -.018 .059

Falls City Beer
11-17-2002, 03:04 PM
"2. And the complaint about Aaron Boone is?"

Awful approach; never walks.

Raisor
11-17-2002, 03:12 PM
Replace Larkin with Boone, and make Branyan the full-time 3B, and that leaves you with just Casey and Taylor being below average.

And since everyone here just SWEARS that we'll see Casey become Jim Thome this year (no really, this time we're serious!) ;-), that leaves the Reds offense in pretty good shape.

Personally, I'd like to see it, and I think it would help the team in the long run. Joe Sixpack LIKES to see bunches of runs scored. Reds score tons of runs (even if they give up a ton), and more people come to the ballpark, revenue starts coming in. Front office takes revenue, and puts it into pitching. Reds start winning. Everyone happy.

PSR

M2
11-17-2002, 03:48 PM
Golly FCB, I hate to ruin a perfectly good baseless position with something like facts, but here goes.

Aaron Boone walked 56 times in 606 ABs last season. That's not ideal, but it's hardly the mark of a guy who "never walks." Had he walked FIVE more times, he would have had himself a good walk rate. His 2002 walk rate of 1 per 10.8 ABs marked a significant improvement over his previous career rate of 1 per 13.7.

His secondary SLG number was .198, up from a previous career average of .166. So his career secondary average was .224 before last year to .271 last year. If you believe that OPS means something, then you could argue that Aaron Boone's approach actually improved last year. Clearly Boone became more selective and looked for pitches he could drive.

What cost him was an uncharacteristic poor performance in BA. He was a career .284 hitter heading into last year and he was consistent (his lowest BA excepting a cup of coffee he got in 1997 was .280). Then he dropped off to .241.

Had he hit .284 in 2002, his OB would have been .354 and his SLG .482 (OPS .836). Scott Rolen, the best 3B in the game for OPS went .357, .503, .860. In other words, if Aaron can recover his BA and combine it with his new approach, you've got a guy who's comparable to the best 3B in baseball.

As it is, Aaron managed an average OPS for his position and drove in a team-high 87 runs. That's a solid #6 hitter any way you slice it.

The real question with Boone is whether Brandon Larson could do the same job for a lot less money. I'm far from convinced the kid can.

Falls City Beer
11-17-2002, 05:17 PM
"Had he hit .284 in 2002, his OB would have been .354 and his SLG .482 (OPS .836). Scott Rolen, the best 3B in the game for OPS went .357, .503, .860."

His OPS for a third baseman was average. Some will say that "with the horrible start he had, to get his OPS up to average means he was doing something right!!" No.

No.

No. You know, just a bit ...a wee bit of contact in April/May (hell, I won't get greedy and ask for base hits, just loft some flyballs) might have helped the Reds finish at .500 or better for the season. Instead, Aaron Boone put up what might have been one of the worst ML performances in several years those first 2 1/2 months of the season. Exploding for a month and a half when it didn't matter much anymore doesn't cut it. Drive in runs when it counts. You don't forgive or forget Brett Tomko for '99; I don't forgive or forget Boone for April/May/June of 2002. Absolute disgrace; a disgrace that could have been avoided with a little self-control.

Raisor
11-17-2002, 05:49 PM
Figured I'd put the pitchers numbers out here too.

One note though, I don't have the vsOPS numbers for relievers and starters, only the league average for both.


Scott Williamson 0.564
John Riedling 0.646
Gabe White 0.654
Danny Graves 0.674
------------------------------ML Average 0.723
Elmer Dessens 0.727
Chris Reitsma 0.760
Jimmy Haynes 0.761
Luis Pineda 0.764
Joey Hamilton 0.767
jose Rijo/Shawn Estes 0.790
Jared fernandez 0.820
Ryan Dempster 0.834
Brian Moehler 0.850
Scott Sullivan 0.852
Bruce Chen 0.855

J "Cooper"
11-17-2002, 06:36 PM
A. Boone's year was not nearly as good as his OPS looks. So much of it is based on slugging. If he was at SS then his numbers were OK, but at 3rd -if you used a metric which valued OBA as it should--AB's value would decrease to put him at below average as he compares to other 3rd basemen.

I really wish he'd be more selective, but my guess is his daddy is ther to congradulate his aggressive approach....his approach is much the same as his fathers.

M2
11-17-2002, 07:05 PM
Curious logic FCB. Ever strike you that Aaron's play from mid-June on was one of the reasons the Reds didn't disintegrate like they did in 2001?

Like it or not, he did play well when the postseason was still in reach.

Cooper, like I said, Aaron was much more selective last year than ever before, now if he could mix that with his usual BA he'd be onto something.

Nice list again Raisor.

Here's a question for all those who want to sign Haynes. Why when you've got Chris Reitsma? Same OPS, and that's Haynes' most favorable statistic in comparison to Reitsma other than IP.

I'd take the younger, cheaper guy and see if he doesn't continue to improve as he has the past three years.